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hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 6:27 pm

Quoting su184 (Reply 163):
ACARS Indications

I imagine the authorities have had this for a while. I wonder if that's what was informing the official terrorism "conclusions" early on?
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 6:32 pm

Quoting 777X (Reply 157):
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
no further ACARS messages were received

Wow. ACARS. In the AF447 case, given the ACARS messages and the pictures of the (floating) wreckage parts, the A.nut Accident Investigation Board was able +/- able to say what happened before the crash. Thanks to all the experts we have here.

So, the AVIONICS SMOKE message just happened when Athens ACC tried to contact the aircraft... time to dig out the manuals!

Quoting GianiDC (Reply 146):
Can one place a bomb somewhere on a plane where it will cause damage to the control surfaces but will not break up the fuselage so that the course of MS804 is explainable? Is there such a case in history?

One can, certainly... but I don't know if it's worth the effort. To hide a terrorist attack behind a structural failure accident? To carry such a thing out with a high degree of reliability, you need engineers and a few test airplanes... As mentioned, several bombs have exploded on airliners without bringing the plane down.

Quoting Yakflyer (Reply 145):

AF447 was most assuredly out of control when it impacted the sea.

The plane was *in* control all the time. All control surfaces were perfectly working, there were no jarring maneuvers, the wings were kept quite level, and the power setting as well as the attitude told the pilots the plane was climbing. The plane and the pilots' minds were just in very different places.


David
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hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 6:39 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 172):
Quoting Yakflyer (Reply 145):
AF447 was most assuredly out of control when it impacted the sea.
The plane was *in* control all the time.

I don't think, however, that AF447 would qualify as a CFIT accident.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
ubeema
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 6:45 pm

I have not fully reviewed all three threads but I was thinking if this crash could be similar to AirAsia Indonesia in December 2014 (QZ8501). Final report confirmed pilots' mishandled disconnection of circuit breakers which led the plane to revert to Alternate Law. Subsequent PF inputs accelerated a stall condition until end of FDR recording.

Only 5 minutes elapsed from the last communication between pilot and ATC when the stall warning was activated. The flight was cruising at FL320 when the crash sequence started and was an Airbus A320-216. Any thoughts

Report can be found here http://kemhubri.dephub.go.id/knkt/ntsc_home/ntsc.htm
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 6:45 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 173):
I don't think, however, that AF447 would qualify as a CFIT accident.

Let's say it's borderline case of CFIT. In a usual CFIT accident, you're sure not to have a mountain in front of you, or terra firma just below you. It was a total breakdown of CRM, procedures and (spatial) awareness while the plane was in control all the time.


I've included the ACARS message in my synopsis - and I'm not good at understanding ACARS messages, as I don't know what failure modes can lead to which message.


MS804 Synopsis
==============
Version 2016-05-20-20-39 CET

Background
----------
1. 66 people were on board. None of the people on the manifest were on a terrorism watchlist.
2. Leaked passenger list: According to a leaked passenger list, only very few of the passengers have a non-Arabic name. A leaked passenger list can be found on a anti-Muslim website http://www.shoebat.com
2.1 Strangely, the plane mentioned on the leaked crew list is SU-GBZ, but at least two confirmed victims (among them, French photographer Pascal Hess) do appear on the passenger list.
2. Earlier that day, SU-GCC flew to Eritrea and Tunis, returning to CAI each time.
3. According to BBC, no terrorist organization has credibly claimed responsibility.

Flight History
--------------
1. Flight entered Athens FIR at 2:24 AM. Last successful communication was at 2:48, the flight was cleared to the exit of Athens FIR. "The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek."
1.1 Several ACARS messages beginning at 3:26 AM:
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
2. At 3:27, Athens ACC tried to communicate with the flight, to hand it over to the Cairo FIR. Repetitive calls, also on the emergency frequency, went without any response. At the same time, 0:27Z, there was the "2600 AVIONICS SMOKE ACARS" message.
2.1 ACARS message:
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
3. The flight passed the FIR boundary at 3:29 AM. At the same time, these ACARS messages were sent:
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
After those, no more ACARS messages were received.
At 3:29:40 AM, the flight was lost from ATC radar, almost 7 nm southeast of KUMBI (KUMBI lies on the FIR boundary). The Greek Air Force was called, they were unable to track the plane with their radars (as it had already crashed at this time).
4. The aircraft stayed at FL370, at least when the transponder was still working.
5. Supposedly, the Greek Air Force's primary radars did record the plane's flight. "It turned 90 degrees left and then a 360-degree turn toward the right, dropping from 38,000 to 15,000 feet and then it was lost at about 10,000 feet." (Paul Kammenos, Greek minister of defense)

Search
------
1. First debris spotted at around noon of May 20th.
2. Possible oil slick photographed by the European Space Agency's Sentinel satellite.

Possible Explanations
---------------------
1. The crew did not respond to repeated calls by Athinai air traffic control, yet the flight didn't disappear from radar until a few minutes later. This suggests the crew was either incapacitated or unable to respond (due to workload; struggling to regain control after a bomb explosion).
2. The time span between the attempted calls by Athens ACC and the disappearance rules out an explosive event that would have totally crippled the plane.
3. A Helios-type of accident is improbable, as the plane would have simply continued the flight plan.
4. If the leaked crew list (mentioning the SU-GBZ plane) is the real one: Was the plane swapped in the last moment?
5. The possibility of an avionics bay fire was mentioned in the thread.



David
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:03 pm

Quoting FCAFLYBOY (Reply 75):
One things for sure, it's also another real blow to the Egyptian tourism industry.

Sad. I wanted to visit the pyramids soon. Now, I;m wondering if it'll ever be worth the risk.


Quoting hilram (Reply 87):
ISIS has already claimed responsibility

They have? Most sources I'm reading say that no one has credibly claimed such yet.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
SQ325
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:08 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 175):
1. The crew did not respond to repeated calls by Athinai air traffic control, yet the flight didn't disappear from radar until a few minutes later. This suggests the crew was either incapacitated or unable to respond (due to workload; struggling to regain control after a bomb explosion).

It is not unusual being send over by Greece radar 5 min before reaching KUMBI but quite often you don' t reach Cairo radar until a few minutes passing Kumbi! So sometimes there is a gap of a few minutes between leaving Greece ATC and being identified by Cairo and not all Crew listen to 121.5 all the time.

Regarding the Acars messages SEC fault does' t cause any problems at all.
An FCU2 fault disengages (at least on the 330/340) Autopilot 2 if used but AP1 works normally if switched on.

Without the Black boxes or maybe the Wreckage everything we talk about is basically fishing in the dark!
 
richierich
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:10 pm

Quoting N757ST (Reply 155):
It's impossible to manually open a thrust reverser on a 320 in flight.

Impossible? Or just very difficult/highly unlikely?
I'll take you at your word and assume it is impossible.
None shall pass!!!!
 
ZKCIF
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:14 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 175):
If the leaked crew list (mentioning the SU-GBZ plane) is the real one: Was the plane swapped in the last moment?

Does not look like that at all.

Based on
https://www.flightradar24.com/reg/su-gbz
https://www.flightradar24.com/reg/su-gcc

1. SU-GBZ flew MS804 the day before (i.e. 24 hours before)
2. After that, SU-GBZ flew CAI-HBE-MED and returned MED-HBE. It did not go technical; the flights went to plan.
From HBE it did not come back to CAI, it flew HBE-RUH, and it only returned to CAI only 10+ hours after the sad destiny of SU-GCC.
3. If any changes took place, they had to happen in HBE (by this I mean that SU-GBZ might have been scheduled to return HBE-CAI and then go on CAI-CDG-CAI. Then, the times would have (almost) matched. The only idea I have is that some frame in Alexandria scheduled for HBE-RUH-HBE went technical, and that frame was substituted by SU-GBZ, and in the domino effect, SU-GCC was substituted in to replace the SU-GBZ frame for the flight to CDG. Otherwise, I can't find any other explanations).

Yours sadly,
Junior Sherlock
 
SQ325
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:15 pm

If possible and I doubt it there would be a Reverser unlocked Acars Message!
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:15 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 62):

The odd thing here is, all the ADS data just .... stops.

In the event of an upset, as described above, either ACARS or ADS continues at least for a little while.

Even the Metrojet flight - which was bombed - data continued for a short period afterwards.

The terrorists who bombed the Metrojet flight were "kind" enough to shoot a video of the incident:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=va6Lo30Bb1U (disturbing footage)

As you can see, the wings and fuselage remain largely intact. As such, there may have been some continued power to the transmitters to continue transmitting data for some time until failure.

With this explosion, the entire airplane might have immediately disintegrated.

Quoting richierich (Reply 152):
I'm just spitballing here, but what are the chances of a thrust reverser being accidentally deployed mid-air?

VERY low. It happened *ONCE* and great pains have been taken to ensure it does not occur again. Also, the A320, irrespective of engine type, has four petals per engine and the idea that all four could deploy at once is...unlikely.

Quoting su184 (Reply 158):

Avherald just added that ACARS messages from the aircraft indicate fire on board, first lavotory then avionics, so the disappearance was not abrupt.

A bomb is a very FAST fire. Might have been in the forward section of the aircraft or even in the lav.
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MIAspotter
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:18 pm

Quoting LTC8K6 (Reply 167):
"00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT"


If accurate, would the "R sliding window sensor" indicate opening the window?

Not necessarily, could be a fault on the avionics/electrics triggering all the errors.

I am not expert, but throwing some ¨maybes´ on the mix.

-FWD galley oven fire? triggering a short-circuit then a fire, the cockpit is just ahead and all the circuit breakers, triggering all those ACAR errors.

What are the possibilities of this scenario?   

Nonetheless, RIP to all lost souls, and may their families find comfort.

MIAspotter.
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:21 pm

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 168):
Would rapid depressurization result in fogging of the air within the cabin, and could that be detected as smoke? I don't know how the smoke detectors operate.

Wouldn't a depressurization event itself be listed in ACARS?
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:21 pm

Quoting richierich (Reply 178):
Impossible? Or just very difficult/highly unlikely?

It should be impossible. I suggest reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lufthansa_Flight_2904 - it's an accident involving the same plane type, and it involves the sensors which allow you to activate the thrust reversers. Of course, one could imagine a fault in these sensors...


David
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:26 pm

Quoting MIAspotter (Reply 182):
FWD galley oven fire? triggering a short-circuit then a fire, the cockpit is just ahead and all the circuit breakers, triggering all those ACAR errors.

Aircraft inflight fires are pretty rare these days ... has there actually been a real (serious) fire on an A-320?

There have been a few incidents of exploding batteries on electronic devices, and a couple bombings ... but an actual in-flight fire?

I'm having trouble coming up with one ...

(really, outside of the AC dc9, the Swissair MD-11, and Valujet ... there are very few in passenger aircraft, period)
 
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Moose135
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:31 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 181):
The terrorists who bombed the Metrojet flight were "kind" enough to shoot a video of the incident:

Pretty sure that's been debunked - when it was first published, it claimed they "shot down" the plane with a missile. We know that's not what actually happened.
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TheRedBaron
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:33 pm

First of all my condolences to all the families of the victims of such a tragedy.

I still think its amazing that in this day and age with acars and ELT and sat tracking we can't find an aircraft ASAP, but one day they will have to do it, because its getting really sad, to take days to find a missing aircraft and in some weird cases years!!

After reading, I think the aircraft suffered a bomb, missile or onboard catastrophic fire located near the front lab and the cockpit from the acars messages. The cockpit voice recorder will surely bring closure to the tragedy.

Lets hope they can find the aircraft, the missing pax and the CVR / FDR and shed certainty to this regrettable event.

TRB
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alfa164
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:36 pm

Just had a very interesting discussion with a very senior airline captain staying here. Some pertinent points:

1) If the 90-degree left and 360-degree right turns are correct, that indicates the airplane was under control during those time; damaged control surfaces would not initiate such precise turns. For this period of time, at least, it appears these were deliberate actions being taken.

2) 90% left is standard procedure to get out of an airlane when an emergency occurs. Pilots are trained to make that maneuver during emergency descent in cases of depressurization, smoke in the cockpit, or some similar situation when the craft remains under control but an onboard emergency occurs, to take the craft from an air traffic lane.

3) The 360-degree is less used, but might be an option to descend without heading too far from the original path. He was less confident of the reason for the full turn.

4) During these situations, the crew would have their hands full trying to correct the situation, and would not be contacting Air Traffic Control or issuing Mayday signals, so the lack thereof is not an indication that the crew was not alive at that time. Their training is to save the airplane first, talk later.

None of this explains what caused the incident, but I hope it does help clarify why the maneuvers indicate the plane was under control, at least for the immediate time following its departure from its planned path. The big question now becomes: what precipitated this?
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Dufo
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:36 pm

I can only imagine an inflight event, similar to this one:

http://avherald.com/h?article=44078aa7/0000
I seriously think I just creamed my pants without any influence from any outside variables.
 
awthompson
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:43 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 186):

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 181):
The terrorists who bombed the Metrojet flight were "kind" enough to shoot a video of the incident:

Pretty sure that's been debunked - when it was first published, it claimed they "shot down" the plane with a missile. We know that's not what actually happened.

Absolutely not!

I, and many others who could be labelled 'experts' more so that yours truly, are convinced that the video is authentic. They are clearly of a real aircraft suffering an explosion, not fake videos. There are two different angles on the aircraft and they concur, study the smoke trail propagation on each. They also show the profile of a large aircraft that matches an Airbus A321 or similar. There is no other historic incident that these could show. Very easy for ISIS affiliates in Sinai to have tracked the flight on the internet and have trained zoomed-in video cameras on the aircraft as it overflew, hoping to get footage. ISIS and affiliates are not numpties. They have plenty of very technically aware people, many are highly educated and experienced in a wide range of fields. It does not surprise me in the least that they obtained this footage.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:47 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 186):

Pretty sure that's been debunked - when it was first published, it claimed they "shot down" the plane with a missile. We know that's not what actually happened.

They claimed to have shot it down, but the video did show the explosion. That has been confirmed as genuine.
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BravoOne
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 7:50 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 188):

The 90 degree turn is a remote oceanic procedure followed up by an offet that parallels the intended course. Don't think you can read much into this series of maneuvers. The fact that the airplane was in radar contact makes it very unlikely iMO. Never heard of the 360 maneuver?
 
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Finn350
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:01 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 183):
Wouldn't a depressurization event itself be listed in ACARS?

That is my understanding, too. The plane was pressurized at least until the end of the ACARS messages, as there is no depressurization alert.
 
Pihero
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:04 pm

Thanks to Flying Turtle for his work on the chronology of events.

I have three remarks to make :
1/- It's still very early news and, as usual, information arrives in bits and pieces, very often very contradictory. There isn't a reliable source of news except specialised media and officials... and even then...  

2/- Theories and assumptions are fine... provided they have some logical basis :
- " I think this happened (....x....) because of this info..." The usual wild guesses about fuel starvation and stall / spin, for the time being have absolutely no basis whatsoever.

3/- Accident investigations are a fine balance between causes and effects , appearances and realities, technical and human failures, all those in a very dynamic environment : weather, air traffic...
Here, for instance we have two sets of apparent facts :

A/- A turn, followed by a rapid descent, another turn ion the opposite direction, a steeper descent until a target signal loss around 15 000 feet.

B/- A set of ACARS messages which need to be qualified :
1/- ANTI ICE RIGHT WINDOW / RIGHT SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR / RIGHT FIXED WINDOW SENSOR : Of these, only the first one is displayed to the crew, indicating a fault in the RHS window heating : the panes are no longer heated.
2/- SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE / AVIONICS SMOKE . Onlyt the Lav smoke would trigger an alarm, the avionionics smoke is just a level 2 caution.
On this aspect one should be really basic about the info / warning / advisory : *smoke* means the detectors and the system are seeing smoke in the affected compartment : It doesn't mean a fire had started there.
On this fire and smoke protection system, one has to say that there is no sensor (that I know of ) and no indication / warning of a COCKPIT SMOKE, for obvious reasons : there are two - or more - pairs of eyes and nostrils in that flight deck.

3/- AUTO FLIGHT : FCU 2 FAULT / FLIGHT CONTROLS : SEC 3 FAULT . Only the second triggers a caution. FCU 2 Fault means that , had the FO been the PF, A/P #2 would have disconnected, causing even more disorder on the flight deck. Otherwise, it has no real impact on the flight conduct.

Now, with all the above in mind, what can we seriously say ?
- The absence of a MAYDAY call seems to point toward a very sudden event that became rapidly unmanageable : IMHO the only event that could have happened was a fire. A violent fire which started either in the avionics bay or in the cockpit.
The fire quickly destroyed most of the electronics, which is the reason there is no more ACARS messages - that we know of - just three minutes after the events initiation at 00:26 Z.
What caused the fire ? culprits abound : shorts / laptop batteries / cigarette.... or plain sabotage or bomb...
Wherever the fire started, the cockpit was one of the most affected volumes on that aircraft ; it must have been a very uncomfortable place to be in...

just my   

[Edited 2016-05-20 14:36:58]
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slvrblt
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:06 pm

Just wondering..............is there a cargo manifest? What about a lithium battery fire in the hold? Or, did someone bring aboard a electronic cigarette, have it explode in his face, and the fire continue? ( fanciful, I know) but these lithium battery problems lately are a real issue.
..everything works out in the end.
 
CF-CPI
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:08 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 193):
That is my understanding, too. The plane was pressurized at least until the end of the ACARS messages, as there is no depressurization alert.

If I am imagining correctly, this would rule out a scenario in which a bomb blew a hole in the fuselage, leading to immediate decompression?

Also, several ACARS messages pertaining to the right hand side (co-pilot, galley) rather than left (captain, lavatory), unless my left-right is turned around.
 
poolkeeper
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:16 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 185):
Aircraft inflight fires are pretty rare these days ... has there actually been a real (serious) fire on an A-320?

There have been a few incidents of exploding batteries on electronic devices, and a couple bombings ... but an actual in-flight fire?

I was in a flight a few years back with fire in the avionics bay under the cockpit (American airlines from MIA and, if I remember correctly, it was an AB6). That was the fastest return to airport I ever experienced. The flight back was bouncy sideways and up and down (maybe autopilot off) and we kept a very high speed until landing. The landing was normal.
This is the only time I seen crew members crying after landing after the captain said we got lucky. Seemed pretty serious.
 
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redzeppelin
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:16 pm

Quoting Pihero (Reply 194):

Thanks, as always, for your critical analysis. I hope we get some more solid information soon.
 
hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:28 pm

Quoting Finn350 (Reply 193):
The plane was pressurized at least until the end of the ACARS messages, as there is no depressurization alert.

I think it's a leap to assume the leaked ACARS messages constitute all the relevant ones. One would assume any depressurization message would have been leaked as well, but...

I'm still assuming the authorities had the ACARS info very soon after the accident. There were authoritative statements ranging all the way from Egytptair to Hillary Clinton that this was a terrorist act. I'm wondering if the ACARS stuff is what that was based on.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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intsim
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:37 pm

Someone had asked earlier if fog from decompression could trigger a smoke alarm. Are there any thoughts on this?
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:41 pm

Quoting CF-CPI (Reply 196):
If I am imagining correctly, this would rule out a scenario in which a bomb blew a hole in the fuselage, leading to immediate decompression?

You're right.

The only scenario I can think of is a bomb that's placed somewhere, just fizzles, but starts a fire - which then burns a hole into the hull (see the cockpit 777 fire at Egypt Air in Cairo some time ago). This would take the electronics out, stop the ACARS messages, and then lead to a depressurization... but it would still be the utter confusion in the cockpit that dooms the plane.

A bomb or terrorism is a remote possibilty, given the information we have now. I hope this is an accident we can learn something from. Given the earlier 777 cockpit fire, I hope the accident wasn't caused by maintenance or engineering work (think of the Swissair MD-11 disaster).


David
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rbrunner
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:47 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 201):
think of the Swissair MD-11 disaster

That's right, but in that specific case, there were loads of distress calls.
 
nm2582
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 9:58 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 201):

Someone had asked earlier if fog from decompression could trigger a smoke alarm. Are there any thoughts on this?

That was my novice/amateur question and as someone else already pointed out, decompression would have triggered an ACARS message. So it seems quite unlikely. I was theorizing that if the windows were not intact, they might trigger the same alerts.

Anyways, it's still interesting to me that there was a focus on the windows in the ACARS alerts. It seems like a fire/burning wires would be more indiscriminate. I wonder if something was sitting on the glareshield (a laptop, perhaps?) which initiated a fire? Or perhaps all of the windows are monitored by a particular module/board/device which was affected by heat/fire damage.

Idle speculation.

[Edited 2016-05-20 14:59:05]
 
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stasisLAX
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:17 pm

Is the avionics bay accessible from inside the cabin/cockpit on the A320? I don't believe it is, but I am not sure. Is there a fire suppression system for the A320's avionics bay?
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
 
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Revelation
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:19 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 199):
I think it's a leap to assume the leaked ACARS messages constitute all the relevant ones.

Not sure, but according to our friend Jon Ostrower these are now confirmed messages.

http://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/733774794752204804

I'm not a WSJ subscriber so I can't comment on any details -- can someone give us an overview?

Also is a.net having problems? It seems strange to me that this thread is not being updated more frequently.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:24 pm

Doing some digging ... we have these ACARS messages ... and lots of access to Google ...

00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT"

Google seems to state that the ANTI ICE R WINDOW, R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR, and R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR indicate a window heater fault, followed by a pair of window temperature sensor faults. But not a fault with the actual window (e.g., it doesn't tell you the window blew out, unless the sensor failed as a result of such).

SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE and AVIONICS SMOKE are smoke detector alerts ... but then there's this statement from an Airbus document describing the ECAM system ...

Quote:
As an example if the air conditioning system is the source of the smoke, the ECAM will possibly display several smoke warnings, SMOKE AFT CARGO SMOKE, SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE, and SMOKE AVONICS SMOKE. All three of the ECAM warnings would be valid because smoke would be present at the respective smoke detectors, but none of the ECAM warnings in this case would indicate the true source of the smoke.

In other words, these alerts could mean there's a fire in these areas, or just that smoke in general has meandered into these areas from somewhere else (sucked there by the air handlers).

Flight control stuff ... well, Pihero touched on that and he's far, far, far more qualified to do so than 99.99% of us.
 
idlewildchild
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:30 pm

Just joining the thread and need a reality check. A smoke condition existed toward the front of the aircraft, either under the front lav on the port side or the galley on the starboard? And no response came to repeated communication while the plane was still showing flying normally (from the ground)?

I guess I'm left wondering what was the cause of the fire? Batteries? Oxygen screw up below? Small bomb? And then I'm left wondering why all the electronics went out so quickly yet the aircraft continued to fly for some time.

If the water is as deep as I'm reading, it may take some time to find the boxes.
 
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:38 pm

Quoting slvrblt (Reply 195):
Just wondering..............is there a cargo manifest? What about a lithium battery fire in the hold? Or, did someone bring aboard a electronic cigarette, have it explode in his face, and the fire continue? ( fanciful, I know) but these lithium battery problems lately are a real issue.

If this was the case, wouldn't we expect to be seeing a CARGO bin fire/smoke alert before the LAV/AVIONICS alert (as the original of the smoke)? There's no cargo alert at all.

Theoretically, that would pretty much mean a smoke source would have to be forward of the cargo bin ... avionics, galley, cockpit, or wiring in between.
 
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:41 pm

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 207):
If the water is as deep as I'm reading, it may take some time to find the boxes.

One thing about the Med : the number of capable Naval search resources that can be marshaled quite quickly from a large number of international sources is very very large. There is, therefore, an advantage in numbers here that you wouldn't have in the middle of the Atlantic.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:51 pm

Interesting development, those ACARS messages.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 205):
Also is a.net having problems? It seems strange to me that this thread is not being updated more frequently.

Noone new can join the site for now.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
CF-CPI
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 10:56 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 208):
Theoretically, that would pretty much mean a smoke source would have to be forward of the cargo bin ... avionics, galley, cockpit, or wiring in between.

Or a situation in the lavatory, such as occurred on Air Canada flight 797 in 1983, involving a fire in the aft washroom of a DC-9-30. In that case, breakers tripped rather explicitly, and it was abundantly clear to the cockpit.

Too bad we don't have the MS804 CVR just yet.
 
AR385
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:00 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 201):
The only scenario I can think of is a bomb that's placed somewhere, just fizzles, but starts a fire

I´m thinking that maybe instead of an explosive device, given how difficult it is to place a bomb on board these days, this time an incendiary device may have been used. Some very powerful ones can be made using house hold items. Remember your high school science fair days? You place one of those behind a panel on the Lav...

Just a guess on my part, but I still remain skeptical that some sort of sabotage is not the culprit. What type of fire spreads so quickly that it does not give time for the crew to transmit some sort of call and brings down an airliner?
 
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Revelation
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:14 pm

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 207):
Just joining the thread and need a reality check. A smoke condition existed toward the front of the aircraft, either under the front lav on the port side or the galley on the starboard? And no response came to repeated communication while the plane was still showing flying normally (from the ground)?

Reply 175 above has a good timeline of the ACARS events vs. the ATC transmissions.

Quoting idlewildchild (Reply 207):
I guess I'm left wondering what was the cause of the fire?

Yes, you and all of us too.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 211):
Noone new can join the site for now.

Sure way to kill off a.net, but I guess it means this kind of thread is more readable...
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:21 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 213):
What type of fire spreads so quickly that it does not give time for the crew to transmit some sort of call and brings down an airliner?

Lithium battery fires can be ferocious ... just look at what happens when one of those "hoverboards" goes up.

It's puzzling there was no smoke alert in the cargo hold though ... that would seem to rule out something from checked baggage.

If there was a fire in the actual cabin (let's say a laptop cooks off in the overhead bin), are there separate smoke detectors there, or is it presumed the people sitting underneath would act as an adequate detector?

Also, is there a smoke detector in the Galley spaces? Wondering what else is a smoke detector that's up front that could have triggered (and perhaps didn't).

You think about fire sources in the front that aren't cargo related ... you have galley equipment, lavatory equipment, the entire avionics bay is under the floor, and a heckuva lot of wiring (the main CB panel in the cockpit is literally on the other side of the bulkhead) ... and personal belongings for the forward cabin crew, and the cockpit crew.

Imagine a pilot's bag with all the paperwork, manuals, etc ... and maybe a personal laptop ... and the laptop battery cooks off. Or similar for cabin crew.

All kinds of similar scenarios, or such, can be imagined.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:26 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 209):

The other advantage is that the plane was tracked by the Greek Air Force's primary radar. The plane was last seen at an altitude of 10'000 ft, which gives a considerably narrow piece of sea where the plane impacted. Big difference to AF447. Lateral drift of the submerged wreckage is another problem, though, but it will still be magnitudes easier than AF447.

Quoting nm2582 (Reply 168):
I am not an expert.
Quoting Clipper101 (Reply 210):
It really clearly shows, along with other few posters !!

Well, nm2582 is an expert by admitting that he's none. And he asks questions. That's more than you can expect from many a.nutters.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
EMAman
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:30 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 213):
Just a guess on my part, but I still remain skeptical that some sort of sabotage is not the culprit. What type of fire spreads so quickly that it does not give time for the crew to transmit some sort of call and brings down an airliner?

An incendiary type device is possible, but I doubt it will be the lead theory if this was a fire. Faulty maintenance or freight will be more likely I think, but I could be wrong.

Does anybody know if there had been a decompression, would this have shown up on the ACARS? If it would have, I would think an explosive type device would be ruled out.
 
DDR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:36 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 217):

Apparently a decompression would show on ACARS according to previous posts. Just adds to the mystery...
 
 
DLFREEBIRD
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 3

Fri May 20, 2016 11:46 pm

Doesn't CDG have one of the most sophisticated airport security systems in the world? Why would terrorist target that airport. or am i answering my own question. They did it to have everyone running scared. Has any organization claimed responsibility?
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 12:02 am

MS804 Synopsis
==============
Version 2016-05-21-02 CET

Background
----------
1. 66 people were on board. None of the people on the manifest were on a terrorism watchlist.
2. Leaked passenger list: According to a leaked passenger list, only very few of the passengers have a non-Arabic name. A leaked passenger list can be found on a anti-Muslim website http://www.shoebat.com
2.1 Strangely, the plane mentioned on the leaked crew list is SU-GBZ, but at least two confirmed victims (among them, French photographer Pascal Hess) do appear on the passenger list.
2. Earlier that day, SU-GCC flew to Asmara (Eritrea) and Tunis, returning to Cairo each time.
3. According to BBC, no terrorist organization has credibly claimed responsibility.

Flight History
--------------
1. Flight entered Athens FIR at 2:24 AM. Last successful communication was at 2:48, the flight was cleared to the exit of Athens FIR. "The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek."
2. Several ACARS messages beginning at 3:26 AM:
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
3. At 3:27, Athens Area Control Center (ACC) tried to communicate with the flight, to hand it over to the Cairo FIR. Repeated calls, also on the emergency frequency, went without any response. At the same time, 0:27Z, there was the "2600 AVIONICS SMOKE ACARS" message.
4. ACARS message:
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
5. The flight passed the FIR boundary at 3:29 AM. At the same time, these ACARS messages were sent:
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
After those, no more ACARS messages were received.
6. At 3:29:40 AM, the flight was lost from ATC radar, almost 7 nm southeast of KUMBI (KUMBI lies on the FIR boundary). The civilian ATC radar track shows that the plane never departed FL370.
7. The Greek Air Force was called, they were unable to track the plane with their radars (as it had already crashed at this time).
8. Supposedly, the Greek Air Force's primary radars did record the plane's flight. "It turned 90 degrees left and then a 360-degree turn toward the right, dropping from 38,000 to 15,000 feet and then it was lost at about 10,000 feet." (Paul Kammenos, Greek minister of defense)

Search
------
1. First debris spotted at around noon of May 20th, about 290 km north of Alexandria. Among the first objects found are seats, luggage and body parts.
2. Possible oil slick photographed by the European Space Agency's Sentinel satellite.

Possible Explanations
---------------------
1. The crew did not respond to repeated calls by Athens ACC, yet the flight didn't disappear from radar until a few minutes later. This suggests the crew was either incapacitated or unable to respond due to an emergency.
2. The time span between the attempted calls by Athens ACC and the disappearance rules out an explosive event that would have totally crippled the plane.
3. An on-board fire.

What can be reasonably ruled out?
---------------------------------
1. A struggle in the cockpit, including a hijacking.
2. A bomb that led to a decompression (though not an incendiary device).
3. Helios-type of accident (crew incapacitation due to asphyxiation) is improbable, as the plane would have simply continued the flight.
Reading accident reports is what calms me down

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