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CO953
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 1:12 pm

Quoting RickNRoll (Reply 35):
It could also mean the sensors were disconnected because of some other reason. Multiple sensor errors in such a short space of time before there are no more messages indicates to me something much more serious.

Reminiscent of the sequential rise and then loss of temp-sensor readings in the case of the space shuttle Columbia, as the fire ate its way further inside the wing structure. Would be interesting to map the physical locations of the sensors/circuits listed the ACARS messages, and whether their order could give any clue to the path of a spreading fire.

[Edited 2016-05-21 06:12:54]
 
poolkeeper
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 1:16 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 50):
Errr... NO. The claim by whoever claimed it could be done was never verified

I agree100%. My understanding as software designer is that you isolate flight flight computers from entertainment computer physically. It means that flight computers can feed information like speed, altitude etc. to the entertainment computer but this is oneway. Flight computer doesn't even need to get an ACK back because it doesn't care if the message is accepted or not. So by hacking you can in best case get flight info and disturb/take down entertainment part (and maybe affect some cabin systems like lights...) but nothing vital.
Electric buses are normally protected for overvoltage and short cuts so a fuse would blow. Again this would just affect the passengers but not the control systems.
There is a better change that you can affect something through the ACARS communication but even that is not likely to affect anything.
 
OMP777X
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 1:25 pm

Reports indicate that the black boxes have been located.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptair...irplane-located-mediterranean-sea/

Best,

OMP777X
"Happy Flighting!"
 
DLFREEBIRD
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 1:35 pm

Quoting e195 (Reply 32):
i think all employees should have the enhanced security screening (the body scanner).



, if you are walking to the gate, you are scanned. you are not waived through. We are not allowed to discuss security at the airport in detail

however, i will say the airline i work for. we drive to the gate, and bypass security completely. But they track our every move when we get into the secure area. If you don't have the highest level of clearance, then you are not allowed to be near a plane. Again i can't go into detail I feel very secure with the system my airport has in place. You would be surprised how many people get fired, because they had no idea how advanced airport security is. I had no idea so many people had sex at work, until they got fired for it. I would think stealing would be the problem, no doing drugs and having sex at work is what get most people fired. We had a high level manager fired. because she show up for work at the start of our shift and we wouldn't see her until the end of our shift. Turns out, her badge showed her leaving the airport two hours into her shift and signing back in 30 minutes before her shift ended. She got away with this for a while, until airport security caught onto her and reported her to our company. They pulled her records and found out that she did this once a week
she take a shuttle to a hotel and check in using hotel voucher certificate reserve for inconvenience customers Turns out she was having a affair with other airline director.

Clearly, neither one was as smart as they thought they were. They didn't have a clue that airport security had flagged them both for acting suspicious.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 1:48 pm

Welcome, mandala449! Your inputs are needed!  
Quoting ZKCIF (Reply 31):
If someone had placed an incendiary device with a timer,

An incendiary device? Such one could have been left by any mechanic during maintenance... but hiding a bomb in a life vest would be much, much easier - it could have been done at any place where security is shoddy (e.g. SSH). And an incendiary device doesn't really guarantee success, but it could hide a criminal act behind what seems like an accident.

Quoting EMAman (Reply 33):
smoke rises so might have come up through the lavatory first.

Could the cabin ventilation (the air flows from the outlets in the ceiling to the air ducts (pressure equalization between passenger cabin and cargo belly) force the smoke downwards, as it is planned in the BER terminal?

Quoting 76er (Reply 39):
Most, if not all cockpit windows open inward, which is impossible to do as long as the airplane is pressurized.

If you would just try a bit harder...

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 47):
To cause an over-voltage situation, you would need to

This is interesting, but I have to read it again to fully understand it with my high-school physics!


Note to myself: Google around for a full QRH and technical documentation (ACARS messages...)


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
giopan1975
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:22 pm

Question to the pros:

We have an aircraft in an emergency situation falling from fl370 to sea level in a few minutes time and obviously going through some big malfunction (with pressurized cabin or not).

Shouldn't Acars messages been many more?
 
Tristarsteve
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:25 pm

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 56):
Shouldn't Acars messages been many more?

Yes but they are not sent to the ground in real time. The ACARS messages are saved up on board and sent every now and then. The interval is up to the airline.
 
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JetBuddy
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:27 pm

I'm starting to think the laptop battery theory makes sense.

If the battery in the F/O's laptop/ipad/EFB exploded or overheated while in his crew bag, placed between the right seat and the right side windows, it would cause a rapid fire with lots of smoke. The first officer most likely would have to get out of his seat to try to extinguish the fire, leaving the captain as pilot in command and in charge of communication as well. His priorities would be to fly the plane first, then communicate. The situation would be chaotic with extremely poor visibility. The fire might have gotten out of control within minutes and burned a hole down to the avionics bay or through the fuselage, causing a decompression.

This would explain the fault messages regarding the right side cockpit windows, as well as smoke detectors going off after the smoke travels through the air conditioning system. It would also explain why there was no reply to ATC, and why they descended so rapidly.
 
unitedchicago
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:33 pm

In this CNN and Trump day and age, it's maddening to see such a rush to judgement. Most of us on here know how these things go. No one will know what truly happened until the CVR, CDR, and key wreckage is located and a formal report issued.

That said, there tends to be a gut feeling about these things. This one just doesn't feel like terrorism.

It was well into it's flight and there was no detected explosion from US intelligence sources. And I'd assume ACARS would have listed a pressurization fault if fire or something else breached the cabin.

Why would a terrorist wait until so late in the flight to commit the act? You'd think, with all the tragic events in Paris, they'd want to bring it down over that area.

Who knows. Just doesn't feel like a deliberate act.

Regardless, condolences to the family and friends. Very sad.
 
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seahawk
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:42 pm

The laptop theory has one problem and that is that materials in aircraft are fire resistant or fire retardant. The cockpit panels alone are tested to resist for at least 60 seconds.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 2:48 pm

Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 58):
I'm starting to think the laptop battery theory makes sense.

The theory fits all the (very limited) information we have, but the problem is the tiny odds of it happening at all.

Sure, if a laptop battery cooks off in its worst possible failure mode it could be a big problem, but what are the odds? My company has provided laptops for all employees going back to when I started there 15 years ago and I've never seen a single one cook off. I've sat surrounded by laptops for years now. Sure there's a few videos showing a few one-off events but that's what they are, one-off events. Surely possible, but also surely unlikely.

We had some well-publicized laptop battery cook-offs a decade or so ago but these resulted in a lot of public scrutiny and law suits so the industry has taken great pains to address the issue.

So, at the risk of being repetitive, it's a possible but not particularly likely scenario. We'll have to wait till we get more evidence.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
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Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
MigPilot
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:04 pm

Sorry, I can't belive the cockpit laptop on fire theorie for a second. Any other scenario is vague at best ATM.


I just hope they have already requested the 3000m+ equipmet to solve this riddle.
 
Yakflyer
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:04 pm

Quoting unitedchicago (Reply 59):

In this CNN and Trump day and age, it's maddening to see such a rush to judgement. Most of us on here know how these things go. No one will know what truly happened until the CVR, CDR, and key wreckage is located and a formal report issued.

That said, there tends to be a gut feeling about these things. This one just doesn't feel like terrorism.

I completely agree with you. From early on I did not think this accident was caused by an explosive device. I speculated the flight path could have been caused by an upset which probably can be ruled out now, but it was not the path of an airframe that was blown up.
 
mandala499
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:15 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 55):
Note to myself: Google around for a full QRH

PM me your email... mine's "slightly outdated" but good enough...

Quoting giopan1975 (Reply 56):

We have an aircraft in an emergency situation falling from fl370 to sea level in a few minutes time and obviously going through some big malfunction (with pressurized cabin or not).

Try smoke removal procedures...  
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:32 pm

I hope one of the navies makes its Subby McSubface ready to dive for wreckage and the recorders...

Aside from the ACARS messages pointing to a possible fire (and the remote possibility of a suicidal laptop), we don't have any new leads.

By the way, is anything missing from my synopsis?


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
wjcandee
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:43 pm

"Not the path of an airframe that was blown up."

It certainly could be. There are a lot of inferences being drawn from very little information.

Virtually all the in-flight-explosive-device attempts recently have been of small bombs that, properly-placed, would initiate an accident sequence, not blow the plane apart in a giant flaming fireball like in the movies (or TWA 800). That's not something you're gonna see on a satellite.
 
Backseater
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 3:49 pm

No smoke sensor in the cockpit

Quoting PIhero in #194/part 3:

Quote:
On this fire and smoke protection system, one has to say that there is no sensor (that I know of ) and no indication / warning of a COCKPIT SMOKE, for obvious reasons : there are two - or more - pairs of eyes and nostrils in that flight deck.

"for obvious reasons?"
In view of ACARS, shouldn't that be revisited as a commercial a/c design requirement?
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:07 pm

MS804 Synopsis
==============
Version 2016-05-21-17 CET

Background
----------
1. 66 people were on board. None of the people on the manifest were on a terrorism watchlist.
2. Leaked passenger list: According to a leaked passenger list, only very few of the passengers have a non-Arabic name. A leaked passenger list can be found on a anti-Muslim website http://www.shoebat.com
2.1 Strangely, the plane mentioned on the leaked crew list is SU-GBZ, but at least two confirmed victims (among them, French photographer Pascal Hess) do appear on the passenger list.
2. Earlier that day, SU-GCC flew to Asmara (Eritrea) and Tunis, returning to Cairo each time.
3. According to BBC, no terrorist organization has credibly claimed responsibility.

Flight History
--------------
1. Flight entered Athens FIR at 2:24 AM. Last successful communication was at 2:48, the flight was cleared to the exit of Athens FIR. "The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek."
2. Several ACARS messages beginning at 3:26 AM:
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
3. At 3:27, Athens Area Control Center (ACC) tried to communicate with the flight, to hand it over to the Cairo FIR. Repeated calls, also on the emergency frequency, went without any response. At the same time, 0:27Z, there was a "2600 AVIONICS SMOKE ACARS" message.
4. ACARS message:
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
5. The flight passed the FIR boundary at 3:29 AM. At the same time, these ACARS messages were sent:
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
After those, no more ACARS messages were received.
6. At 3:29:40 AM, the flight was lost from ATC radar, almost 7 nm southeast of KUMBI (KUMBI lies on the FIR boundary). The civilian ATC radar track shows that the plane never departed FL370.
7. The Greek Air Force was called, they were unable to track the plane with their radars (as it had already crashed at this time).
8. Supposedly, the Greek Air Force's primary radars did record the plane's flight. Panos Kammenos, Greek Minister of Defense: "It turned 90 degrees left and then a 360-degree turn toward the right, dropping from 38,000 to 15,000 feet and then it was lost at about 10,000 feet." Radar horizon has to be taken into account here.

Search
------
1. First debris spotted at around noon of May 20th, about 290 km north of Alexandria. Among the first objects found are seats, life vests, luggage and body parts.
2. Possible oil slick photographed by the European Space Agency's Sentinel satellite.

Possible Explanations
---------------------
1. The crew did not respond to repeated calls by Athens ACC, yet the flight didn't disappear from radar until a few minutes later. This suggests the crew was either incapacitated or unable to respond due to an emergency.
2. The time span between the attempted calls by Athens ACC and the disappearance rules out an explosive event that would have totally crippled the plane.
3. An on-board fire. In 2011, a cockpit fire before pushback lead to a hull loss of a Boeing 777 (EgyptAir flight 667). The probable cause was an electrical fault or short circuit, possibly in connection with a crew oxygen hose.

What can be reasonably ruled out?
---------------------------------
1. A struggle in the cockpit, including a hijacking.
2. A bomb that led to a decompression (though not an incendiary device).
3. Helios-type of accident (crew incapacitation due to asphyxiation) is improbable, as the plane would have simply continued the flight.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
flyenthu
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:13 pm

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 53):
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptair...irplane-located-mediterranean-sea/

As per the CBS article, that was very recently updated, there was smoke in one of the engines. It is early on in the article.

"According to the sources, the information indicates smoke was coming from one of the engines. The data was transmitted through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which sends snapshots of engine performance throughout the flight."

This is the first time I heard of smoke in one of the engines.

On another note, it was very disappointing to see how media, e.g. CNN, had their experts suggesting from the very outset that this accident is a deliberate act and some so-called experts immediately casting doubts on the pilots. This is really irresponsible and is this how it is going to be from now? I see a lot of biases in this frankly. I see clear biases and prejudices, that led to such early speculations pointing to terrorism and pilot malicious-intent without any growing evidence, stemming from the fact that this is a Middle Eastern airline. Now these outlets are backtracking and taking a measured approach in their reporting.
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:14 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 40):
Trying to do so before that, indicates panic and/or lack of adherence to SOPs

I fully expect this to be more about expanding damage from fire (or other causes) than actual cockpit actions.

That being said, obviously if you are actually burning up this second, you are in panic and willing to try anything.

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 43):
At the moment, it looks like a Sub-Bus of the DC-Bus 2 system that's affected. I think this is more of a fire in avionics bay, although I wouldn't rule out an actual cockpit fire...

A possible theory, yes.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:21 pm

Quoting unitedchicago (Reply 59):
it's maddening to see such a rush to judgement.

I don't see it as such. It's just a bunch of curious people trying to see what pieces fit the puzzle. I understand it angers some, and depresses those close to the victims, but it's human nature.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 65):
Aside from the ACARS messages pointing to a possible fire (and the remote possibility of a suicidal laptop), we don't have any new leads.

And I don't think we'll get any more all that quickly, unless something becomes clear from the floating debris.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 65):
By the way, is anything missing from my synopsis?

Just the new rumour that they've located the CVR/FDR. Perhaps this is a mis-statement, and perhaps what they're trying to say is they've heard the pinger on the CVR/FDR?

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 69):
As per the CBS article, that was very recently updated, there was smoke in one of the engines. It is early on in the article.

"According to the sources, the information indicates smoke was coming from one of the engines. The data was transmitted through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which sends snapshots of engine performance throughout the flight."

Yet if you read the post of Pihero in this thread, none of the messages are related to the engines, so I'm thinking this is probably a mis-statement too.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
Deanger
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:24 pm

I read somewhere that this aircraft had an engine #1 temp issue in the past... I'm pretty sure it was here on this board...

Does that ring a bell with anyone?
 
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:24 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 69):
On another note, it was very disappointing to see how media, e.g. CNN, had their experts suggesting from the very outset that this accident is a deliberate act and some so-called experts immediately casting doubts on the pilots. This is really irresponsible and is this how it is going to be from now?

Money talks, and in the TV business, the more sensationalist you are, the more eyeballs you draw to your channel, and therefore ratings (and ad revenue) go up.

They were handed a golden opportunity here .... airplane disappears, signals and radar abruptly stop, and it's an airline from a middle east country in a region in turmoil, departing from a city itself still reeling from terror attacks.

Perfect setup for them to trumpet "TERROR IN THE SKY" for all to hear.

2 days later, we now know data that would seem to indicate this premature conclusion was not correct ... but that doesn't stop 'em from this kind of behavior.

Responsible journalism presents the facts, and does not draw conclusions until the facts support them.

Responsible journalism doesn't drive rating and ad revenue, unfortunately, in today's world.
 
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:26 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 71):
perhaps what they're trying to say is they've heard the pinger on the CVR/FDR?

Unless the CVR/FDR are floating on the surface, I would think it would have to be the case.
 
Deanger
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:27 pm

For what it's worth, while we bash (rightly) outlets like CNN, you can imagine my surprise when I read into today's NEW YORK TIMES : (paraphrase) the first fault indicates the co-pilot opened his window.
 
photolppt
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:30 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 68):
2. Leaked passenger list: According to a leaked passenger list, only very few of the passengers have a non-Arabic name. A leaked passenger list can be found on a anti-Muslim website http://www.shoebat.com
2.1 Strangely, the plane mentioned on the leaked crew list is SU-GBZ, but at least two confirmed victims (among them, French photographer Pascal Hess) do appear on the passenger list.

Great summary, flyingturtle, thanks.
Regarding the pax list, the name of the portuguese national onboard MH804 is also correct.

Alex
 
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AirlineCritic
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:30 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 69):
On another note, it was very disappointing to see how media, e.g. CNN, had their experts suggesting from the very outset that this accident is a deliberate act and some so-called experts immediately casting doubts on the pilots. This is really irresponsible and is this how it is going to be from now? I see a lot of biases in this frankly. I see clear biases and prejudices, that led to such early speculations pointing to terrorism and pilot malicious-intent without any growing evidence, stemming from the fact that this is a Middle Eastern airline. Now these outlets are backtracking and taking a measured approach in their reporting.

Yeah, but obviously we are guilty of the same here...

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 69):
"According to the sources, the information indicates smoke was coming from one of the engines. The data was transmitted through the Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System, which sends snapshots of engine performance throughout the flight."

Smoke from the engines? hmm. possible. but i call misinterpretation here. ACARS was originally for engine performance, but now also for other things, and smoke alarm does not mean it came from the engine. Unless there was a specific message about that, but we haven't seen that. At least not yet.
 
Guillermo
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:32 pm

Quoting BruceSmith (Reply 47):
It is within the realms of electrical theory for a transformer to fail in such a way that a higher secondary voltage than designed is produced. This would require the insulation of the primary windings to break down and short the windings. Even then, you're more likely to blow the rectifier circuits instantly than to sustain enough voltage on the DC side to burn wiring. (Note, I refer to transformers because the manuals I read call them Transformer Rectifiers, not switch-mode power supplies, correct me if I'm wrong here please)

Don't know about Airbus electrical system specs, but classical electrical transformers plus rectifiers have been progressively superseded by switching power supplies, that are lighter and also more capable since they can provide a wider range of input freq & voltage for a given output voltage, output voltage stabilization and filtering, multiple output circuits, max output current and operation temperature protection, remote control, serial comms, etc. They are of course protected to prevent the event of fire, even when an inner power semiconductor or HV capacitor would fail. Maybe they used the terms "Transformer Rectifiers" just to denote a switching power supply. Even otherwise, is extremely infrequent in my experience to saw an electrical transformer properly designed, installed and protected to catch fire.

Very often people thinks that an electrical short circuit would necessary lead to a fire. You put a fuse or circuit breaker at the beginning of a circuit branch just to open that circuit when the CURRENT through it, matching the breaker's rupturing profile (intensity vs. time), approaches its breaking point BEFORE any component of the branch (including wiring) could melt or catch fire. It should be the weakest ring of the chain, not only due to safety concerns but also for economical reasons (it is better to repair a given faulty component instead of having your whole thing roasted). If this would not be the case, hence blame the electrical engineer that designed/modified the electrical system (Swissair 111) or the maintainer that could put in place a wrong circuit breaker type.

R.I.P. to the victims.

Guillermo
 
flyenthu
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:40 pm

Quoting AirlineCritic (Reply 77):
Yeah, but obviously we are guilty of the same here...

This is a forum though with folks having various opinions.
 
Rivet42
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 4:45 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 69):
This is the first time I heard of smoke in one of the engines.

... probably because it looks like misinterpretation of the ACARS data that we have seen.

Quoting Deanger (Reply 75):
NEW YORK TIMES : (paraphrase) the first fault indicates the co-pilot opened his window.

Hm, maybe that's where the BBC picked it up from! They haven't mentioned it again, probably as their own on-screen 'expert' made no such claim (and hopefully put them right afterwards too...).

Riv'
I travel, therefore I am.
 
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maartent
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 5:26 pm

Quoting Guillermo (Reply 78):
Very often people thinks that an electrical short circuit would necessary lead to a fire. You put a fuse or circuit breaker at the beginning of a circuit branch just to open that circuit when the CURRENT through it, matching the breaker's rupturing profile (intensity vs. time), approaches its breaking point BEFORE any component of the branch (including wiring) could melt or catch fire. It should be the weakest ring of the chain

Yes, this is absolutely true. However, in the real world it doesnt always work out that way.

In the past, when I was a simple electrical engineer, we had the saying: the equipment protects the fuse, not the other way around

And a fire could also be provoked by an intermittent failure, like sparking, which cant be detected by a fuse.

Anyway, I think there WAS an electrical problem, big enough to get the plane in big troubles. If that is true (we have to wait for any investigation on the flight recorders, when found) we must dig into that, as I was thinking it may give a clue to what actually happened to the missing MH370.
 
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litz
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 5:56 pm

Quoting maartent (Reply 81):
Yes, this is absolutely true. However, in the real world it doesnt always work out that way.

In the past, when I was a simple electrical engineer, we had the saying: the equipment protects the fuse, not the other way around

I have, for years, fixed coin-operated arcade games including pinball machines.

The number of burned circuit boards, components, solenoid coils, etc, that I've seen that protected the correct fuse installed in the system, would (trust me) surprise you.

The real world does not necessarily equal what the paper says should happen, or even what your testing says should happen.

Good practices in design and testing can reduce the percentage likelihood that reality will differ from projected ... down to a statistically small amount ... but it can never completely eliminate it.
 
Guillermo
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 5:57 pm

Quoting maartent (Reply 81):
In the past, when I was a simple electrical engineer, we had the saying: the equipment protects the fuse, not the other way around

Ahaha! I also remember this...   Anyway, you will probably agree with me that today electrical systems are designed to comply with several security standards far more stringent that in the past. The same goes for safety devices available today.

Quoting maartent (Reply 81):
And a fire could also be provoked by an intermittent failure, like sparking, which cant be detected by a fuse.

Sure, but this would not be a short circuit scenario in the beginning. This is the classical situation with a loose connection pole, switch or contactor pole. It certainly could develop into a short, if the wires' insulation melt away due to heat. But even in this case, neither the pole nor the wire should catch fire, and at this point the safety device should intervene.
 
Delta777Jet
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:09 pm

NATO had marine training mission in the area and Israel tested their new missile defence system on sea that day.
May be they maneuvered around and were hit ?
I still miss Trans World Airlines and the L-1011
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:13 pm

Quoting Delta777Jet (Reply 84):
NATO had marine training mission in the area and Israel tested their new missile defence system on sea that day.

This is hardly consistent with the ACARS messages, and also with the fact that ATC tried to call the crew unsuccessfully, and the plane gave secondary radar returns for another 2 minutes and 40 seconds.


Somewhere, in the online news, I've read that the "black boxes" were "located", but I'm convinced that they only heard the pinger yet fi this is the case.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
AustrianZRH
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:14 pm

Quoting Delta777Jet (Reply 84):
NATO had marine training mission in the area and Israel tested their new missile defence system on sea that day.
May be they maneuvered around and were hit ?

I doubt a hit by any anti aircraft fire would result in a smoke warning but no decompression report in the ACARS. To cause a fire within the pressure vessel, something would have had to penetrate the hull resulting in decompression first, which we would see on the ACARS.
WARNING! The post above should be taken with a grain of salt! Furthermore, it may be slightly biased towards A.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:23 pm

US Government sources have already stated that no flares/flashed/explosions were detected in the area where the aircraft was last detected by radar at the time contact was lost & the descent began.

Bear in mind that they were very fast to state that such indications had been detected when the Metrojet A321 was lost over Sinai.

Ironically, the Egyptians were criticised for not immediately assuming that terrorism was the root cause of the loss of that aircraft, with all the foreign parties involved stating that this was the case & now they are being criticised for working on the assumption that it was a terrorist attack; with all the implications that might have for their tourism sector, yet everyone else is saying, basically, we can't rule anything out at the moment.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
Guillermo
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:32 pm

Quoting litz (Reply 82):
I have, for years, fixed coin-operated arcade games including pinball machines.

The number of burned circuit boards, components, solenoid coils, etc, that I've seen that protected the correct fuse installed in the system, would (trust me) surprise you.

Sure... but, to be honest, it would be unfair to compare that kind of machine with an aircraft, or even with industrial machinery for that matter    There are industry / applications specific standards to comply with. Despite this, I was talking about real FIRE, not just burned components that could be sooty / melted by means of heat but that actually did not develop flames. And I am pretty sure that those machines were not subject to programmed maintenance, like aircraft are instead.
 
flyenthu
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 6:35 pm

Quoting AustrianZRH (Reply 86):
resulting in decompression first, which we would see on the ACARS.

If depressurization occurs from a blast inside the plane, will it certainly be relayed by Acars? Was depressurization relayed by Acars in the Russian Metrojet case?

Thanks!

f/e
 
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maartent
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 7:05 pm

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 89):
If depressurization occurs from a blast inside the plane, will it certainly be relayed by Acars? Was depressurization relayed by Acars in the Russian Metrojet case?

There was no ACARS in that case, AFAIK.
 
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usxguy
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 7:13 pm

far fetched... but is it possible that space junk or a meteor hit it? the ACARS messages could be in response to something HITTING that side of the plane but not destroying it.
xx
 
smokeybandit
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 7:34 pm

Quoting usxguy (Reply 91):

far fetched... but is it possible that space junk or a meteor hit it? the ACARS messages could be in response to something HITTING that side of the plane but not destroying it.

I'd think something large enough to survive that far into re-entry would have been accounted for.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting usxguy (Reply 91):
far fetched... but is it possible that space junk or a meteor hit it? the ACARS messages could be in response to something HITTING that side of the plane but not destroying it.

How much money are you betting on that?  

There is a statistical argument against this: Since decades, things with wings are gracing the skies, but none has ever been hit by a meteorite. This article http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-it-possible-that-a-met/ says that in one century, only three US cars have been hit by a meteorite. Now you can imagine how exceedingly rare these events are... we will rather have fusion-powered aircraft before any one is hit by a meteorite.

...well, that MS804 was hit by a meteorite is certainly not impossible. But we have to focus on what is probable, given the available evidence.


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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maartent
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 8:25 pm

Quoting usxguy (Reply 91):
far fetched... but is it possible that space junk or a meteor hit it? the ACARS messages could be in response to something HITTING that side of the plane but not destroying it.

But how does that explain the smoke messages? Without making a hole in the fuselage, which would lead to ACARS messages about the cabin pressure I presume.
 
LovesCoffee
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 8:40 pm

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 53):
cockpit windows

from the article: "part of a baby's purple and pink blanket or sleeping bag" as part of the debris. I can think of nothing more disturbing to see in air crash debris.
Life is too short for cheap coffee.
 
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DIRECTFLT
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 9:02 pm

Quoting OMP777X (Reply 53):
Reports indicate that the black boxes have been located.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptair...-sea/

That's not what I get from reading that report, specifically this statement from the article:

"However, there has been no official confirmation, and EgyptAir wouldn't confirm or deny that the flight recorders, commonly known as black boxes, have been located."

So let the wild speculation go on, until official confirmation is given...

[Edited 2016-05-21 14:03:40]
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danvs
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 9:23 pm

The black boxes are not designed to float, so it's reasonable to assume they're around 10,000 ft (3000 m) below sea surface, together with most of the wreckage.
I'm not sure if the pings are that easy to locate given the depth of the ocean in the area.
A submarine was employed in the AF447 accident, and the Australian Navy attached a cable to the pinger locator so as to enhance the chances of finding the boxes of MH370.
 
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GlenP
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 9:27 pm

Quoting DIRECTFLT (Reply 96):
Quoting OMP777X (Reply 53):Reports indicate that the black boxes have been located.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptair...-sea/
That's not what I get from reading that report, specifically this statement from the article:

"However, there has been no official confirmation, and EgyptAir wouldn't confirm or deny that the flight recorders, commonly known as black boxes, have been located."

So let the wild speculation go on, until official confirmation is given...

Further to the above exchange, the BBC has just reported that the CVR & FDR have not been found; going into some detail about how the pingers work.

They also featured both Ex-NTSB, now working for the AAIB) & ex-AAIB investigators. The former commented that the ACARS messages probably cover too long a period for a bomb whilst they appear too short for a fire. His British counterpart basically stated we won't know what happened for sure until the recorders are recovered.

They also commented on the issue of Li ion batteries, showing a laptop going off with a flash, sparks & a hell of a bang.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
rbrunner
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 9:30 pm

Quoting danvs (Reply 97):
The black boxes are not designed to float, so it's reasonable to assume they're around 10,000 ft (3000 m) below sea surface, together with most of the wreckage.

Is the Mediterranean Sea that deep in that region?
 
Pihero
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 4

Sat May 21, 2016 9:31 pm

Quoting mandala499 (Reply 43):
it looks like a Sub-Bus of the DC-Bus 2 system that's affected. I think this is more of a fire in avionics bay,

As usual, Buddy, you have a knack for complexities... And here, we have one which could go very far.
1/- Electrical fire in the Avionics Bay :
What is galling is that the right window(s) anti-icing is ruled by the WHC - window heating computer - which is in turn powered by DC BUS 2. That bus seems to be rather involved : SEC 3 and FCU 2 are amongst the systems it furnishes power to.
There now comes the big problem : DC BUS 2 powers a lot more systems and as a matter of fact, one is left with FAC 1 ELAC 1 and SEC 1... The F/O has lost his static sensor ---> needs to switch to ADR 3... One's lost three spoilers per side... and those haven't been ACARS transmitted .
The only explanation that makes sense is a fire, are we to consider that its progression was very fast and it destroyed basically most of the communications capability of the flight in less than four minutes.
On that subject, we have to consider that the detected smoke should have triggered a QRH procedure, here the AVIONICS SMOKE... and guess what ? the procedure could lead to an ELEC EMER CONFIG situation and com-wise, one is left with only VHF1... no bloody ACARS possible.

2/- Fire in the cockpit :
I'm afraid we have to consider the possibility of an event similar to the B-777 Nefertiti on ground at Cairo.
What is of note is that the wires to the sliding window sensors / heaters run very close to the pilots' O2 masks stowage, and we have basically a continuous table running parallel to the fuselage skin from the instrument panel to the circuit breakers boards behind the pilots, on which to store a book, a laptop...etc... the O2 mask hose would add a lot to a fire in this area.
Then, the already polluted cockpit air would go to the avionics bay, for cooling, then be evacuated through the extract duct / fan where it would be scanned for particles. Then, and only then we would have a "Smoke" warning.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 61):
Quoting JetBuddy (Reply 58):
I'm starting to think the laptop battery theory makes sense.

The theory fits all the (very limited) information we have, but the problem is the tiny odds of it happening at all.

But I've just been told that some very serious airlines have now included a "LIthium Fire in the cockpit" procedure in their QRHs.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 65):

By the way, is anything missing from my synopsis?

the only thing I could think of would be to stay with Zulu times : having both local and Z on the same text is a bit difficult for me.

Quoting flyenthu (Reply 89):

If depressurization occurs from a blast inside the plane, will it certainly be relayed by Acars?

Depressurisation would trigger a completely different set of messages.
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