D L X
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 3:56 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 155):
Educated speculation helps reduce unlikely scenarios and focus on plausible hypotheses.

I don't disagree, but here, the speculation is drowning out the facts. (And it's not particularly unique speculation. mostly repetitive.)

Quoting enilria (Reply 161):

Still better than CNN by 83.81%

LOL

true.
 
hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:03 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 148):
Both Egyptian and Egyptair officials are confirming that terrorism is the most likely cause.
Quoting enilria (Reply 161):
That's surprising given past Egyptian blame deflection.

I have to play a bit of the cynic here and wonder if Egypt/Egyptair would be saying this if the accident flight had departed from an Egyptian airport.
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alfa164
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:08 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 138):
I wonder if it was also predicted in the ancient Mayan texts. That report seems really, really sketchy.

The original quote came from RT - Russian Television - whose "news" is dubious, at best (remember how the Ukrainian planes shot down MH17...the planes that weren't really there?), I wouldn't put much credence in it.
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seahawk
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:09 pm

Quoting awthompson (Reply 162):
Well, difficult. A rogue crew member would have to have firstly overpowered the other cockpit crew member or have waited until the other member had gone to the rest room. Then turn off the transponder, ADSB transmitter etc, then perform the act very very quickly. In the German Wings case, the rogue pilot just left the transponder and ADSB on for all to see. Yes, it is a possibility but does not look very likely given what else we know.

And then he would need to bring the plane totally out of control, which is not that straightforward on an Airbus and needs extra steps. I guess primary radar tracks will probably show that the plane went out of control the same moment the contact was lost, which usually means catastrophic structural failure. The only idea I would have would be bulkhead failure and a hard decompression, but this has not happened for ages in planes without previous damage.
 
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:10 pm

Quoting Faro (Reply 160):
Draconian measures should now be adopted to improve security checks and procedures if this turns out to be linked to terrorism.

Oh there will be draconian measures...none of them aviation safety related however
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F9Animal
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:11 pm

Quoting AR385 (Reply 111):
Speak for yourself. I have no intention of travelling on an airline that treats me as a terrorist from the getgo. You might enjoy that treatment, God knows why, but I don´t.

Sorry to say, but this is the way all airline security should be handled. It's the most effective way to prevent terror.

Quoting GlenP (Reply 124):
Sorry but according to the latest BBC update: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-36328976 ISIS / DAESH have not claimed responsibility as yet. Certainly some of those who post on social media in support of this vile group have asked whether, or expressed a hope that, it was a terrorist act by said group, but there has been no claim on their "official" outlets.

I know we expect most terror organizations to immediately claim responsibility, as it is there normal mo. However, we have seen terror tactics change dramatically in recent years. I guess it's safe to say, these terror organizations are highly unpredictable. If IS is involved, they may be holding off to claim responsibility. We also need to be much more on guard, because we know these punks like to do things like this at multiple times.
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flybynight
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:12 pm

Quoting Deanger (Reply 163):
I've never seen the authorities go to terrorism so fast... (or maybe that's the media saying the authorities are saying that)Where's the "let's take a moment" and not get ahead ourselves?

It does seem a little premature doesn't it? Especially since wreckage has not been found (even though I thought I heard on the news that some might have been just found).

I guess the region of the World plays into the terrorism theory along with the fact that it is rare to see planes crash while at cruising altitude. Of course that happens, like with the A332 (or 333) AF flight over the Atlantic.

Very sad and just scary.

I feel bad for everyone impacted, but especially so for the children on the plane.
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sierrakilo44
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:13 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 167):
I have to play a bit of the cynic here and wonder if Egypt/Egyptair would be saying this if the accident flight had departed from an Egyptian airport.

Nope
After refusing to admit the blatantly obvious in Flight 990, and dithering around with Metrojet, they almost instantaneously are blaming a deliberate attack for this flight. And with almost no actual evidence pointing to it. Why? They can shift the blame then to another authority (Paris airport security). If it's mechanical or human error it reflects badly on themselves and this way they avoid a massive loss of face.

Quoting Faro (Reply 160):
Draconian measures should now be adopted to improve security checks and procedures if this turns out to be linked to terrorism.

What? Like confiscating nail clippers and toothpaste again? Or how about actual security like finally mandating that all airside workers (baggage handlers, caterers, cleaners) must pass through screening points before heading airside.
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:18 pm

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 159):

Err.... in PA103, a timer was used. One from a Swiss supplier.


Oh, I thought it was remotely triggered from the ground.

Quoting hivue (Reply 153):

Wow. The investigation is half done already.  

In any airliner crash like this, it's important to start by considering all possibilities and then excluding them as facts become available that exclude certain possibilities. The facts available here strongly suggest a sudden catastrophic and unsurvivable event occurring at cruise or top-of-descent and that excludes all but a very few possibilities. Those possibilities, in order of likelihood are:

1) Bomb
2) Spontaneous structural failure causing in-flight break-up (and that hasn't happened to a jet airliner in a very long time because aircraft are specifically designed and maintained such that this basically cannot happen).
3) Small meteor strike (which would be so stunningly unlikely, I can't even begin to quantify).

We can exclude collision with any exterior object, such as a missile or another aircraft because the area is so heavily patrolled by radar. We can exclude pilot suicide because of the sudden loss of radar contact and loss of data. On the A320, the aircraft will simply not allow the pilot to put the aircraft into an unrecoverable position that would cause in-flight break-up. On GermanWings the ADS-B stream continued until impact. We can exclude severe in-flight upset or weather problem because that would almost always result in a distress call and these events almost never cause catastrophic structural failure in flight. Also, weather was quite nice in the place and time that the event occurred. We can exclude alien abduction   because wreckage has now been found.

If you have any other scenario consistent with the facts, I'd love to hear it.
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DiscoverCSG
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:26 pm

Quoting enilria (Reply 160):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 152):
3) Device was planted at CDG.

This is the scariest possibility.

Why is this inherently scarier than if a device had been planted at CAI or TUN and went undetected for several segments?
 
A332DTW
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:32 pm

Terrible. Dark day, but time heels all.

If this is confirmed to be terrorism, it certainly won't help Egypt's tourist industry.
 
Skyguy
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:33 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 173):
1) Bomb
2) Spontaneous structural failure causing in-flight break-up (and that hasn't happened to a jet airliner in a very long time because aircraft are specifically designed and maintained such that this basically cannot happen).
3) Small meteor strike (which would be so stunningly unlikely, I can't even begin to quantify).

Or a suicidal pilot.
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Moose135
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:34 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 173):
If you have any other scenario consistent with the facts, I'd love to hear it.

Some sort of uncommanded control surface movement, similar to the 737 rudder-related accidents a number years back? They had been in service for years before that surfaced, and it took a while to get to the root cause.
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hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:34 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 174):
On the A320, the aircraft will simply not allow the pilot to put the aircraft into an unrecoverable position that would cause in-flight break-up.

I believe the crew on Airbus aircraft can take actions that would degrade the flight control law out of Normal Law.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 174):
We can exclude severe in-flight upset or weather problem because that would almost always result in a distress call

As in AF447 and QZ8501?

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 174):
and these events almost never cause catastrophic structural failure in flight

I admit that I haven't read every post in this thread. What is the current evidence that there was an in-flight break-up?

[Edited 2016-05-19 09:50:04]

[Edited 2016-05-19 09:50:40]
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sierrakilo44
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:38 pm

Quoting A332DTW (Reply 175):
If this is confirmed to be terrorism, it certainly won't help Egypt's tourist industry.

On the contrary, if it was planted in CDG it will probably kill France's (and by extension) Europe's tourism and air travel industries as well. You could probably see with the lax security, the proximity of insurgents and the probably sympathetic (and bribe able) ground staff at Sharm El Sheik how a bomb could be planted on Metrojet. But how could a supposedly secure environment with background checked staff at one of Europe's premier airports be so easily penetrated. Especially after France has been cracking down on radicals after the Paris and Brussels events. For France and the EU's sake they'd better pray that the bomb (if it was of course, still pure speculation at this stage) was planted in Cairo or Tunis or somewhere else.

[Edited 2016-05-19 09:41:30]
 
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SOBHI51
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 4:54 pm

Quoting CNN

{ We have found the wreckage,” EgyptAir vice president tells CNN’s Christiane Amanpour about Flight 804.}
I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:01 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 156):
Or EgyptAir Flight 990 long before that.

Still the creepiest crash of them all, IMO


Quoting enilria (Reply 160):
That's surprising given past Egyptian blame deflection.

  


Quoting hivue (Reply 166):
I have to play a bit of the cynic here and wonder if Egypt/Egyptair would be saying this if the accident flight had departed from an Egyptian airport.

Of course they would, as they're still denying MS990, 17yrs after every other country involved have come to the clear conclusion.


Quoting DiscoverCSG (Reply 174):
Why is this inherently scarier than if a device had been planted at CAI or TUN and went undetected for several segments?

Because that's a first world country, with one of the major aviation hubs of the world, arguably the world's largest tourism component, and quite frankly-- not from a region of the world where many would shrug their shoulders and think "Well, this is the sorta thing that happens over there."


Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 179):
the bomb (if it was of course, still pure speculation at this stage)

Not anymore. Egyptians officials are already claiming that as an initial conclusion.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Revelation
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:09 pm

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 3):
CNN is always happy to blurt out the first piece of info they receive without bothering to fact check for the sake of having the exclusive.

Yes, and of course their dubious history with pretty much every aviation incident especially MH370 suggests that none of us here should be watching them, clicking on their reports, or using them as a source.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 167):
The original quote came from RT - Russian Television - whose "news" is dubious, at best (remember how the Ukrainian planes shot down MH17...the planes that weren't really there?),

Tis true, but I have to say I didn't find any major flaws in their coverage of FZ981 -- in particular, they seemed to have a lot of the CCTV video available quite early on, and it was being presented at a rate that suggested to me at least that they weren't being censured.
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hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:12 pm

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 181):
Egyptians officials are already claiming that as an initial conclusion.

Wow. Now it's an "initial conclusion." I take it back. The investigation isn't just half done, it's 3/4 done.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
jpetekyxmd80
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:17 pm

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 179):
On the contrary, if it was planted in CDG it will probably kill France's (and by extension) Europe's tourism and air travel industries as well.

Holy crap. Drama queen much?
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tp1040
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:33 pm

Quoting Revelation (Reply 182):
Yes, and of course their dubious history with pretty much every aviation incident especially MH370 suggests that none of us here should be watching them, clicking on their reports, or using them as a source

Truer words have never been written.
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:41 pm

CNN is reporting that the wreckage has been found. RIP to those on board  .
 
bgm
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:43 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 177):
Some sort of uncommanded control surface movement, similar to the 737 rudder-related accidents a number years back? They had been in service for years before that surfaced, and it took a while to get to the root cause.

The A320 has been in service for 28 years. If there were rudder issues I think they would've been discovered by now.

Quoting LAX772LR (Reply 181):
from a region of the world where many would shrug their shoulders and think "Well, this is the sorta thing that happens over there."

The TSA failed to detect 95% of prohibited items in a recent undercover test, so "that sorta thing" could happen here, too.
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s5daw
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:47 pm

Quoting Skyguy (Reply 176):
Small meteor strike (which would be so stunningly unlikely, I can't even begin to quantify).

While a chance of a meteor striking THE plane is small, the chance of a meteor straking A plane is orders of magnitude higher, given how many airplanes are in the air at any given time.
 
a380787
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:52 pm

Quoting s5daw (Reply 188):

While a chance of a meteor striking THE plane is small, the chance of a meteor straking A plane is orders of magnitude higher, given how many airplanes are in the air at any given time.

Even the latter is still exponentially miniscule considering our atmosphere is designed such that most foreign objects, like small meteors, will disintegrate during entry.
 
CaliAtenza
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 5:58 pm

Quoting bgm (Reply 187):

The TSA failed to detect 95% of prohibited items in a recent undercover test, so "that sorta thing" could happen here, too.

Thousands Standing Around strikes again. The TSA is a joke....
 
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Moose135
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:01 pm

Quoting bgm (Reply 187):
The A320 has been in service for 28 years. If there were rudder issues I think they would've been discovered by now.

The 737 had been in service 20+ years before the Colorado Springs crash, the first generally attributed to the rudder issue. I'm not saying the A320 had a rudder (or other control) issue, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility out of hand simply because it has never happened before.
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Boeing747_600
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:19 pm

Quoting Airportugal310 (Reply 132):
Can't tell if you are joking or...?

Well, I don't know what your problem with her is, but her analysis is better than Quest's wild speculation.
 
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enilria
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:27 pm

Quoting DiscoverCSG (Reply 174):
Why is this inherently scarier than if a device had been planted at CAI or TUN and went undetected for several segments?

Because CDG is far more linked into the worldwide transportation infrastructure than CAI. CAI is also fairly easy to isolate from the rest of the "network" by having another layer of screening on flights from CAI, but CDG is so intertwined that it would be nearly impossible to do that.

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 167):
Quoting enilria (Reply 138):
I wonder if it was also predicted in the ancient Mayan texts. That report seems really, really sketchy.

The original quote came from RT - Russian Television - whose "news" is dubious, at best (remember how the Ukrainian planes shot down MH17...the planes that weren't really there?), I wouldn't put much credence in it.

I find RT can be revealing unless the Russian govt has an ax to grind over the issue. They probably do here.

Quoting hivue (Reply 166):
Quoting enilria (Reply 161):
That's surprising given past Egyptian blame deflection.

I have to play a bit of the cynic here and wonder if Egypt/Egyptair would be saying this if the accident flight had departed from an Egyptian airport.

Good point

Quoting D L X (Reply 165):
Quoting enilria (Reply 161):

Still better than CNN by 83.81%

LOL

true.

 
Quoting Viper911 (Reply 164):
Quoting enilria (Reply 161):
Fairly likely, but wouldn't there be an inspection on arrival in CDG? How detailed is that?

An airplane has so many places where one can hide something, Places that are never checked on everyday basis.
All you need is a bomb of a size of soda can, now, where could you hide that on an airplane.

Viper911

 
 
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CALTECH
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:29 pm

Do not know if it's true or not, but nothing else makes sense right now......

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016...ims-downing-egyptair-flight-ms804/

'BREAKING REPORT: Russia’s Interfax Says Egyptair Crash Terror Related'

'Reports just reaching us from the Islamic that an Iraqi passenger detonated bomb inside Egypt Airbus killing all 66 on board, according to Islamic State media.

Sporadic reports coming in that Amaq has released a prelim ISIS claim of #EgyptAir disaster.

— shenzhen rainyday (@Geniture_) May 19, 2016

MORE—– It’s not clear where these reports on the plane were posted.
Amaq Agency on Twitter has not yet posted the news.'

http://www.newsday247.com/2016/05/is...bus-crash-all-those-on-board-dead/

'Official Islamic State news agency Amaq released statement that says its fighters put bomb on Egypt Airbus that was headed from Paris to Cairo in Egypt. Celebrations were reported in raqqa, defacto of the brutal militia.'

Quoting ZeeZoo:
Before we go down the rabbit hole of Islamic terrorism let's do realise and apply some logic here that a Paris to Cairo flight would likely be majority Muslim passengers and hence, with most Muslim extremists, the victims are their own kin.

And what of it that they are their own kin ? These islamic terrorist groups kill their own all the time for not being with their 'movement.'

Quoting ZeeZoo:
Hence my post, it's important to keep perspective here. It's better suited to call this plain terrorism rather than "Islamic terrorism" considering the religion of the victims.

Well, do you think it was Swedish Volleyball Team members who, if this was a terrorist act, committed this a action ? More than likely islamic terrorists if this is indeed a terrorist act.

Quoting B747forever:

Since when does the victims religion matter? If carried out by the name of islam then it is yet again islamic terrorism.

Exactly.

Quoting ZeeZoo:

If I, a British citizen, blow up a plane and leave a note behind saying "It was for Sweden" does it make it "Sveden terrorism"? Apply some logic for heaven's sake, what these fools are doing is against everything Islam or any religion stands for.

Wrong analogy. If you leave a note behind that says it's for the Swedish Volleyball Team, and the Swedisn Volleyball Team was known for terrorist acts, then, yes, it would make the Swedish Volleyball Team a terrorist organization.

And why does it keep happenning ?

Quoting ZeeZoo:

It's actually rather pivotal because the hate speech or ignorance that such events leads to results in further isolation and extremism and hence strengthening the rhetoric produced by these savages.
Quoting SOBHI51} No there is not, what we have is terrorism hiding under a religion and abusing it.

Then why do so many of that perticular religion support this terrorism ?

Quoting ZeeZoo:
No there is not, what we have is terrorism hiding under a religion and abusing it.
Quoting ZeeZoo:
When it's a minority that bastardises the religion so much so that it is clear that its terrorism is sought to benefit itself rather than its people or for the betterment of its religion AND that the majority of its terrorism effects its own people then I find it very difficult for you to call that religious terrorism and not stupidity.

You are not calling the majority or a very large portion of the moslem population stupid, are you ?

http://www.commdiginews.com/featured...arab-muslims-support-isis-42253/#!

"Al Jazeera poll suggests 81 percent of Arab Muslims support ISIS"

"Thirty-eight thousand people across the Arab world responded to the poll and a shocking 81 percent of those polled came back with an answer of “Yes.” "

"In Jordan, 72 percent of the population supports Hamas....In Egypt, that number is 48 percent."

"In Egypt, Malaysia, and Lebanon at least 15 percent of the population believes that suicide bombings are sometimes justified."

"In Turkey, 86 percent of the population has a negative view of Israel, which is 1 percent higher than the number of people who have a negative view of the Islamic State.

Eight percent of Pakistan’s 180 million people have a favorable view of the Taliban."

"Every article published and every news story issued lately has been required to include the tired qualifier that “not all Muslims support violence” and that “most Muslims are peaceful people,” and while that is certainly true, it has become almost impossible to deny that an enormously high number of Muslims in Arab speaking countries are sympathetic to radical jihad."

http://www.pewforum.org/2009/12/17/l...-terrorism-among-muslim-americans/

'Little Support for Terrorism Among Muslim Americans'

http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/pages/articles/opinion-polls.aspx

'35% of young Muslims in Britain believe suicide bombings are justified (24% overall).
42% of young Muslims in France believe suicide bombings are justified (35% overall).
22% of young Muslims in Germany believe suicide bombings are justified.(13% overall).
29% of young Muslims in Spain believe suicide bombings are justified.(25% overall).'



Even if one goes with the lower numbers, the numbers are alarming.
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CO953
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:33 pm

Quoting Moose135 (Reply 191):
The 737 had been in service 20+ years before the Colorado Springs crash, the first generally attributed to the rudder issue. I'm not saying the A320 had a rudder (or other control) issue, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility out of hand simply because it has never happened before.

What is so sad about today's world is that we would almost hope for a rudder/control issue, because it might be solvable - like the 737 - as opposed to the human issues of our age. In almost any instance I can think of, people are more complicated than machines....  
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:33 pm

Greek officials saying that the aircraft "swerved, then plunged" with no further explanation.

Watching it live.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Ammad
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:45 pm

Debris found near the Greek island of Karpathos
 
bennett123
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:51 pm

Reply 91/92 suggest a possible maintenance failure at CAI.

Two points;

1. Could line service errors cause structural failure. My understanding is that deep servicing would not take place at CAI.

2. Which would be more of a problem for Egypt, bomb or MX error.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 6:51 pm

The US White House is saying it was likely an act of terror. I am pretty confident they have received intelligence info that confirms this. Sadly, these punk terrorists have hit again.
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enilria
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:08 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 198):
2. Which would be more of a problem for Egypt, bomb or MX error.

Terror is worse as maintenance is correctable and only impacts one airline (their airline), but doesn't impact the whole tourist industry.
 
EMAman
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:14 pm

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 172):
Why? They can shift the blame then to another authority (Paris airport security).

Yes probably, thats my theory as to why the egyptians have jumped on the bomb theory. A kind of 'your airports are no better than ours' type gesture.
 
Av8rDAL
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:16 pm

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 179):
On the contrary, if it was planted in CDG it will probably kill France's (and by extension) Europe's tourism and air travel industries as well. You could probably see with the lax security, the proximity of insurgents and the probably sympathetic (and bribe able) ground staff at Sharm El Sheik how a bomb could be planted on Metrojet. But how could a supposedly secure environment with background checked staff at one of Europe's premier airports be so easily penetrated. Especially after France has been cracking down on radicals after the Paris and Brussels events. For France and the EU's sake they'd better pray that the bomb (if it was of course, still pure speculation at this stage) was planted in Cairo or Tunis or somewhere else.

If by chance it is discovered that a passenger smuggled a weapon on board and overpowered the crew, then passenger security controls at CDG and presumably all of France’s airports would be proven compromised. That is a scary thought in a post-9/11 world where we have learned so much about the weaknesses of passenger security checks and made great improvements worldwide.

However, I would think such a scenario is less likely than an automated device being planted on board. If said device originated during routine ground procedures at CDG, that exposes another great weakness. Where are the loopholes in the security infrastructure for screening personnel in catering, lavatory service, line maintenance, delivery vehicles/drivers from off-airport vendors as they cross the gate to “airside” etc. while the plane is being loaded and prepared for the next flight?

On a different tangent, if it is confirmed to be terrorism, one would wonder “why this flight” in the middle of the night with such a light load. Isn’t the goal of terrorism to conduct a very visible act that kills or otherwise directly affects as many innocents as possible?
Maintain thine airspeed, lest the Earth rise up and smite thee.
 
hivue
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:17 pm

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 199):
The US White House is saying it was likely an act of terror.

Reference? Hillary has said it's terrorism but she hasn't been elected yet.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
a380787
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:21 pm

Quoting EMAman (Reply 201):

Quoting sierrakilo44 (Reply 172):
Why? They can shift the blame then to another authority (Paris airport security).

Yes probably, thats my theory as to why the egyptians have jumped on the bomb theory. A kind of 'your airports are no better than ours' type gesture.

Is there a way the rogue device might've been planted, say in some Egyptian airport, *prior* to the plane arriving at CDG and turning around ? I'm asking because if we assume the organization is ISIS/ISIL, they would want ever more severe damages to western interests, including planting one on western airlines flying between 2 western destinations.

The Metrojet attack has already exposed flaws in the Egyptian airport security procedures, and this time has all the same signatures, except the plane is flying reversed direction.
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:25 pm

Quoting gia777 (Reply 97):
I think the whole world need to adopt El-Al security and safety procedure, they are just perfect in many ways.

There's 46 aircraft flying for LY.
There's more than 1,000 each for AA/DL/UA.

....see where the difficulty might be, with this?



Quoting AR385 (Reply 111):
Speak for yourself. I have no intention of travelling on an airline that treats me as a terrorist from the getgo.

  
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
CO953
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:27 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 204):
The Metrojet attack has already exposed flaws in the Egyptian airport security procedures, and this time has all the same signatures, except the plane is flying reversed direction.

Possibly there is automated technology which would allow self-triggering after X number of cycles. Or, hidden well and latent several cycles until a certain passenger boards with a trigger.
 
ec99
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:29 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 204):
Is there a way the rogue device might've been planted, say in some Egyptian airport, *prior* to the plane arriving at CDG and turning around ? I'm asking because if we assume the organization is ISIS/ISIL, they would want ever more severe damages to western interests, including planting one on western airlines flying between 2 western destinations.

I agree with this. if there was a big whole in security at CDG, why not hit a A380 heading to JFK or LAX. Doesn't make sense that take advantage of (and give away) a huge security vulnerability to blow up a 1/3 full A320 over the Med. Sea.
 
a380787
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:31 pm

Quoting hivue (Reply 203):

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 199):
The US White House is saying it was likely an act of terror.

Reference? Hillary has said it's terrorism but she hasn't been elected yet.

She's no longer part of the Cabinet / Administration either, so whatever she said today was her own opinion as a private citizen.
 
UA787DEN
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:36 pm

According to CBS - http://www.cbsnews.com/news/egyptair...tag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=24681934 -
US officials are assuming foul play due to the descent rate, and did NOT detect an explosion.
 
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flyingturtle
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:36 pm

So, except from "finding the wreckage" and more hints towards terrorist claims no new developments?

I find it still strange that a plane was hit with many connecting passengers which were not going into holidays... maybe the bomb was planted in CAI, with the hope that SU-GCC would be employed on a tourist flight. Or it's just a show of force, demonstrating what the terrorists can accomplish. But then, if they are wise, they would not use an attack vector that the Egyptian security forces can easily block - for they must still have the opportunity for their real strike.

What's the point of bombing an airliner when it only amounts to a Pyrrhic victory?

I sometimes think of the Basque ETA terrorist organization which sometimes planted bombs in public places, and they often tipped the police off - just to prove what they are capable of...

Quoting CALTECH (Reply 194):
Wrong analogy. If you leave a note behind that says it's for the Swedish Volleyball Team, and the Swedisn Volleyball Team was known for terrorist acts, then, yes, it would make the Swedish Volleyball Team a terrorist organization.

Hey, we volleyballers are peaceful! A referee told me that he neither had to show a yellow or a red card to any player in three years...


David

[Edited 2016-05-19 12:42:46]
Reading accident reports is what calms me down
 
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GlenP
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RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:44 pm

Latest upate on the BBC live news feed is that the Greeks have stated that the wreckage, already confirmed as being from he aircraft by the airline & the Egyptian authorities, isn't.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
SCQ83
Posts: 5331
Joined: Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:32 pm

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:52 pm

Quoting ec99 (Reply 207):
I agree with this. if there was a big whole in security at CDG, why not hit a A380 heading to JFK or LAX. Doesn't make sense that take advantage of (and give away) a huge security vulnerability to blow up a 1/3 full A320 over the Med. Sea.

Well I don't think it that way. Legacy carriers are probably the best publicity for emerging countries that want to improve their image and marketing in the world. That is why historically most of the "best" carriers are government-owned entities that come from countries such as Qatar, the UAE, Jordan, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore... that at one moment or another wanted to open to the world.

In the case of Egypt, tourism was traditionally a major source of revenues and what made it "open" to the world and different from, let's say, Libya.

So attacking tourism (as already happened with the Russian plane) and Egyptair are definitely ways to help to destabilise Egypt. No tourism means less money (a source for discontent and extremism) and a population less opened to Western influences.
 
hivue
Posts: 1913
Joined: Tue Feb 26, 2013 2:26 am

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:54 pm

Quoting GlenP (Reply 211):
Latest upate on the BBC live news feed is that the Greeks have stated that the wreckage, already confirmed as being from he aircraft by the airline & the Egyptian authorities, isn't.

I suggest everyone put Egypt/Egyptair one notch below CNN as far as reliable reporting is concerned.
"You're sitting. In a chair. In the SKY!!" ~ Louis C.K.
 
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flyingturtle
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Joined: Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:39 pm

RE: Egypt Air 804 Paris-Cairo Missing Part 2

Thu May 19, 2016 7:55 pm

Quoting GlenP (Reply 211):
Latest upate on the BBC live news feed is that the Greeks have stated that the wreckage, already confirmed as being from he aircraft by the airline & the Egyptian authorities, isn't.

The wreckage is not?

*puzzled*

Eric the half a bee... *sing*


David
Reading accident reports is what calms me down

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