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seabosdca
Posts: 6591
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:01 pm

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 145):
If you think BCA are laying off workers now because NG is ramping down (from 42 /month) to a temporary lull before ramping MAX up (to 52 /month) then your crazy.

I don't think you're very familiar with BCA labor history (or US labor practices in general). They adjust employment as often as necessary to meet their needs. Increasing automation has put downward pressure on BCA employment numbers for generations. They see a lot of room for improvement in 737 production cost through automation, and need that improvement because the 8 MAX won't have the same ability to drive superior pricing when compared to the A320neo that the -800 did with respect to the A320. Imagining that Boeing (a large, SEC-regulated public company) is forecasting for a huge production downturn and lying to investors about it is what's really crazy.

Quoting Amiga500 (Reply 146):
Furthermore, it is essentially a single aircraft family. So if any airline wants a fleet spread across 150-220 seats, then Boeing has to cut prices on BOTH 8 and 9 to match up against the more competitive A320/A321 combo from Airbus.

The lack of a competitive MAX 9 is indeed the MAX's biggest problem. But that exerts pricing pressure on the MAX 9, not the MAX 8. If your logic held, the lack of an Airbus alternative to the 777-9 (yet) would be pushing A350 prices down. It's not.
 
StTim
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:18 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 150):

The lack of a competitive MAX 9 is indeed the MAX's biggest problem. But that exerts pricing pressure on the MAX 9, not the MAX 8. If your logic held, the lack of an Airbus alternative to the 777-9 (yet) would be pushing A350 prices down. It's not.

That would only apply if the 777-9 was in a sweet spot. There is no current evidence that it is and so no pressure - so far - on the A350.

The A321 is however increasingly a sweet spot and the lack of a competitive offering in that sweet spot is hurting BCA.
 
Amiga500
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:36 pm

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 150):
They adjust employment as often as necessary to meet their needs.

Not on this scale and not with the nature of the temporary drop in rates.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 150):
Imagining that Boeing (a large, SEC-regulated public company) is forecasting for a huge production downturn and lying to investors about it is what's really crazy.

The board don't see it. They are kidding themselves on.

Or if you want to be more skeptical about their motives, are just cashing in on bonuses before parachuting out.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 150):
If your logic held, the lack of an Airbus alternative to the 777-9 (yet) would be pushing A350 prices down. It's not.

Which is exactly why Airbus are holding fire on an A350-1100 - they aren't sure the market is there as they aren't seeing such pressure.

The market for a/c with seating between 200-250 is undoubtedly there.
 
sv11
Posts: 221
Joined: Tue Jun 01, 1999 6:26 am

RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:30 pm

Wonder if Boeing can do a shortening landing gear like on the A330. It may fit in the existing wheel well.

Regards,
sv11
 
L0VE2FLY
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Wed Jun 01, 2016 11:51 pm

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 139):
Quoting william (Reply 138):John Leahy is taking credit for the MadMax name?

Clearly someone has been reading a.net.

Was the name coined by a fellow a.nutter?
 
Okcflyer
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 12:01 am

What is the SFC difference between LeapA and LeapB? It would need to be rather significant to make up any economic justification for something a bit bigger than -9.

Only way in see this under consideration is as a higher margin frame closer to 753 size / length with wing root extensions mainly aimed at 4K mi sectors (max range approaching 5k). Something significantly bigger than A321 and with a lower CASM due to size. Boeing's wing has a little more room left for tricks then the Airbus one does, but I can't imagine a scenario where Airbus is not in a position to be able to counter technically.

The only hesitation from A may be such capability may seriously hurt the A339 business case as it likely could provide equal CASM up to 4K miles, eating significantly into the 330's bread and butter.
 
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neutrino
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 5:35 am

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 148):
Third, I don't have the money to pay the lawyers (even if I had, what would be the charge?)   

The suggestion to sue JL was made in jest. Chances are it won't fly even if one has planeloads of cold hard cash to dump around.  
Seriously though, you could drop a nice email to him to let him know, if he didn't already, who the original applicator of that prefix to the MAX is and to give you proper due credit.
Potestatem obscuri lateris nescitis
 
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speedbored
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:47 am

Quoting neutrino (Reply 156):
Seriously though, you could drop a nice email to him to let him know, if he didn't already, who the original applicator of that prefix to the MAX is and to give you proper due credit.

But who was the original "inventor" of the 737 "Mad Max" moniker? I very much doubt that it was any of the people who think that they came up with it first.

For example, it was already being used 4.5 years ago, just 3 months after the MAX launch:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/planetalk...37-max-nor-a350-add-up-at-present/
 
tortugamon
Posts: 6795
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 2:54 pm

Quoting StTim (Reply 151):
That would only apply if the 777-9 was in a sweet spot. There is no current evidence that it is and so no pressure - so far - on the A350.

There is even less evidence that the A350-1000 is in this so-called 'sweet spot'. There are a lot of airlines that have been comfortably filling 77Ws. For some they will want to downsize to the A351 and reduce revenue but gain margin. For others they will want to have the option to grow revenue slightly while improving margins (less than if they operate the A351 most likely). I don't think there is a 'sweet spot' per se.

tortugamon
 
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william
Posts: 3305
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 2:58 pm

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 158):
There is even less evidence that the A350-1000 is in this so-called 'sweet spot'. There are a lot of airlines that have been comfortably filling 77Ws. For some they will want to downsize to the A351 and reduce revenue but gain margin. For others they will want to have the option to grow revenue slightly while improving margins (less than if they operate the A351 most likely). I don't think there is a 'sweet spot' per se.

tortugamon

Curious, off topic, is your usename from the Tortuga RUM brand?............................Great stuff by the way, smooooooooooth.
 
a380787
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 3:01 pm

The 77W only "appeared" to be in the sweet spot in the 2005-2015 time frame because there wasn't any other realistic competitor, so nearly every major carrier flocked to it.

Now with a plethora of options from 338/788 through to 779, and healthy orders for all except the edge cases, "sweet spot" is really a fluid concept.
 
tortugamon
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 3:07 pm

Quoting william (Reply 159):
off topic

You're right it is. Post should be deleted.

tortugamon
 
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Devilfish
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:06 pm

Quoting L0VE2FLY (Reply 154):
Was the name coined by a fellow a.nutter?
Quoting speedbored (Reply 157):
But who was the original "inventor" of the 737 "Mad Max" moniker? I very much doubt that it was any of the people who think that they came up with it first.

For example, it was already being used 4.5 years ago, just 3 months after the MAX launch:

First saw the "Mad MAX" nickname applied to a jetliner almost nine years ago in the last "Peter Max" thread.....

Part VII... The Last Peter Max Thread (by IAHcsr Jul 3 2007 in Civil Aviation)


However, it was referring to a 772ER.   

[Edited 2016-06-02 11:11:44]
"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 9298
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 160):
The 77W only "appeared" to be in the sweet spot in the 2005-2015 time frame because there wasn't any other realistic competitor, so nearly every major carrier flocked to it.

Spots without realistic competitors sound pretty sweet to me.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
iahcsr
Posts: 4777
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 1999 2:59 pm

RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 6:21 pm

Quoting Devilfish (Reply 162):


Part VII... The Last Peter Max Thread (by IAHcsr Jul 3 2007 in Civil Aviation)


However, it was referring to a 772ER.   

[Edited 2016-06-02 11:11:44]

     
Working Hard, Flying Right Friendly....
 
grantcv
Posts: 410
Joined: Tue Apr 26, 2005 1:28 pm

RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 7:13 pm

What is the customer need? Isn't the problem here that the 757 market, which was dormant for a decade, has reawakened as 757s come due for retirement. It seems that the 737-9ER and later the 737 max 9 was a stretch to fill the gap that fell short. The A321neo is a better stretch, but also would seem to fall short. It seems to me that Boeing is focusing on building something that is a reaction to the A321neo rather than building something that would actually be what customers are trying to get -- a true replacement for the 757. For over 30 years now, the 737 has been a reaction to one market miscalculation after another. First it was the problem with the 757-200 having grown to the point that the smaller 757-100 was no longer viable (the old 150-seater market) -- so we got the 733/734/735 as a stopgap measure while the 7J7 never happened. Then there was the NG series in reaction to Airbus' success in selling the A320 family. Now the max series is a reaction to the neo series. At some point Boeing needs to get back to focusing on market need instead of reacting to Airbus' moves. They can never regain market leadership if they're always fumbling behind Airbus in the narrow-body market.

Boeing also needs to remember that if they don't build a new aircraft every 12 or so years, the know-how to actually do that will start evaporating within the company. It's been a dozen years since 787 program start. It's time for the 787 generation of engineers to pass on their skills to a new generation -- and that is reason enough for Boeing to start a new generation of airliners.
 
ODwyerPW
Posts: 1624
Joined: Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:30 am

RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:05 pm

Quoting grantcv (Reply 165):
It's been a dozen years since 787 program start. It's time for the 787 generation of engineers to pass on their skills to a new generation -- and that is reason enough for Boeing to start a new generation of airliners.

I do agree with this sentiment. It's called succession planning. No one does it anymore. I support the idea of beginning a major new program every 10 years.... That would give most planes, in most market segments a good 30 year run before being completely replaced. In that 30 years, you'd have several derivatives and improvements.

That said.... They can't let that sales imbalance between 737-9MAX and A321NEO persist. It's only going to increase. I don't think management has the stomach for a new program.. so they will do a 10 (MADMAX).... and a 7.5... (to fend off C-Series from below).. My feeling is.. if you are going to do it.. then get on with it... launch these programs this year.

Regarding Airbus countering with an A322/A325 or whatever.. they are going to do that anyway, whether Boeing goes MOM, MADMAX or NSA.... If Boeing does nothing... they will just ramp up A321NEO production and continue to deny Boeing sales for anything other than 8MAX/MAX200.
learning never stops.
 
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Revelation
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RE: Boeing 737 MAX 10 Details Emerge

Thu Jun 02, 2016 8:16 pm

Quoting grantcv (Reply 165):
It's time for the 787 generation of engineers to pass on their skills to a new generation -- and that is reason enough for Boeing to start a new generation of airliners.

You must not work in corporate America. That kind of thinking might fly in the trenches but won't ever fly more than a level or two up the management chain. They don't worry a jot about how well trained the engineers are, they care about every penny of their bonus. There's no way they'd launch a new a/c just to keep the engineers trained.
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