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enzo011
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:37 am

So the 789 is now also being looked at. What happened to his 300 seat minimum? If the A359 is too small, why cancel the 50 plane order with what you would believe would be rather airline friendly pricing, and then order an even smaller model? Seems EK may be following the QR path where they have been too ambitious with their plans and now realise they need smaller aircraft and the A380 and 779 is not the sweet spot but smaller and more efficient aircraft may just be where it lies.
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:45 am

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 50):
If the A359 is too small, why cancel the 50 plane order with what you would believe would be rather airline friendly pricing

This order is for post 2025 which is when they will be moving to DWC.

I believe the 350 was cancelled in favour of 388's as it is too small for DXB. For EK to continue their growth before 2025, they need the biggest aircraft they can get their hands on, i.e 388's & 77X's.

IMHO, its also a reason Airbus is delaying the 380neo until 2025, EK needs ceo's regardless until 2025 to maintain their ASM's. Launch the 388neo when EK are at DWC to allow it to then be the CASM king for EK, and its large premium cabin above the 779 will ensure it is still needed for EK.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 1:47 pm

Quoting enzo011 (Reply 50):
So the 789 is now also being looked at. What happened to his 300 seat minimum

NZ are operating it at 303 passengers. Maybe EK are looking at a J and Y version proportionally sized to the 2 class 77W, perhaps something like 28J and 285Y
 
osteogenesis
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:14 pm

The dependency EK has on the A380 will probably play a role in this order. Not sure how but I believe EK is worried about the future of the A380. They will probably try to link orders of other models to try to move Airbus in a certain direction.
 
a380787
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:20 pm

There's nothing wrong with the 787-10. TC, being who he is, wants every plane to be over-engineered so it can do max payload MTOW out of DXB 2pm at 42 degrees to LAX and AKL, but in the process, making the planes far less optimal for many other operators.
 
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Richard28
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:45 pm

Quoting a380787 (Reply 54):
wants every plane to be over-engineered so it can do max payload MTOW out of DXB 2pm at 42 degrees to LAX and AKL

so it can take off at 2pm MTOW yes, but Emirates certainly do not expect the 787-10 to fly to either AKL or LAX!
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 2:58 pm

Quoting osteogenesis (Reply 53):
The dependency EK has on the A380 will probably play a role in this order.

I'd argue Airbus is more dependent on EK in regards to the A380. If they had to, EK could move to the 747-8 or more 777-9s, even if they would not as effective. Airbus, on the other hand, pretty much is dependent on EK to keep the A380 line alive.
 
mjoelnir
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:17 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):
I'd argue Airbus is more dependent on EK in regards to the A380. If they had to, EK could move to the 747-8 or more 777-9s, even if they would not as effective. Airbus, on the other hand, pretty much is dependent on EK to keep the A380 line alive

Than on owner of a 777-300ER can go for its replacement cycle to a 787-8 and we can completely stop on this forum to talk about replacing frames with similar sized frames. Any of your options is a huge reduction in capacity per flight. It would put the business model of Emirates in jeopardy. If Airbus has to close down the A380 they will happily live on having already written off all cost in regards to the A380.
 
Clipper136
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 52):
NZ are operating it at 303 passengers. Maybe EK are looking at a J and Y version proportionally sized to the 2 class 77W, perhaps something like 28J and 285Y

WOW. NZ really packs them in. UA B789 are also 2 class and ONLY seat 252. 48 J, 88Y+ and 116 Y.
and NZ's J is in 1-1-1 while UA is 2-2-2.

EKs current 2 class A332s have 27 J (278 total pax) in a 2-3-2 config.... they probably could get 300 on the B789 and 330-340 on the A359.
You can't beat the Experience.
 
tjh8402
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 3:49 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 52):
NZ are operating it at 303 passengers. Maybe EK are looking at a J and Y version proportionally sized to the 2 class 77W, perhaps something like 28J and 285Y

This actually would make sense. NZ actually has a pretty generous J at 1-1-1 and 80 in of pitch. I would imagine EK J would look more like the 777's at 60" and maybe 2-2-2 across, so they should be able to squeeze even more premium seats in. KLM fits 294 seats in and thats with 48 E+ and J at 1-2-1. Aside from NH's domestic -9's, does anyone seat more? Seatguru says they have 34 in of pitch in E which seems suspicious so I don't want to try to go by their seating configurations
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:11 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 57):
Any of your options is a huge reduction in capacity per flight. It would put the business model of Emirates in jeopardy.

And Emirates would adjust their business model to adapt.

But then I wasn't suggested EK would move away from the A380, just that they don't have to buy the A350 to keep Airbus building the A380, which is what osteogenesis suggested could influence EK into choosing the A350 even if it was not the best option.

[Edited 2016-06-08 09:14:37]
 
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Erebus
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:12 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):
I'd argue Airbus is more dependent on EK in regards to the A380. If they had to, EK could move to the 747-8 or more 777-9s, even if they would not as effective. Airbus, on the other hand, pretty much is dependent on EK to keep the A380 line alive.

Is there any absolute need for Airbus to keep the A380 line alive? While EK has kept it going, they aren't exactly contributing significantly to Airbus's bottom line and they should be ready to pull the plug and shift the resources to more profitable areas, at least from a beancounter perspective. We see that Airbus is already working on moving A380 resources to increase A320 production.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 4:18 pm

Quoting Erebus (Reply 61):
Is there any absolute need for Airbus to keep the A380 line alive?

No, but there is no reason to just kill the program because they only have a single customer - especially when that customer continues to purchase scores of frames.



Quoting Erebus (Reply 61):
While EK has kept it going, they aren't exactly contributing significantly to Airbus's bottom line and they should be ready to pull the plug and shift the resources to more profitable areas, at least from a beancounter perspective.

Based on average sales prices and what Airbus said they could build an A380 for, each EK delivery is likely giving many scores of millions of profit to Airbus. So with future replacement and expansion orders, EK should still be delivering the better part of nine figures in profit (and eleven figures in revenue) over the next decade-plus.
 
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Erebus
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:18 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
Based on average sales prices and what Airbus said they could build an A380 for, each EK delivery is likely giving many scores of millions of profit to Airbus. So with future replacement and expansion orders, EK should still be delivering the better part of nine figures in profit (and eleven figures in revenue) over the next decade-plus.

If this is the case, that it is a very profitable programme to Airbus, even though EK can only fill around half the current production slots every year for the next decade on, it's quite a turnaround from what we normally hear about the programme.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:36 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 56):
I'd argue Airbus is more dependent on EK in regards to the A380. If they had to, EK could move to the 747-8 or more 777-9s, even if they would not as effective. Airbus, on the other hand, pretty much is dependent on EK to keep the A380 line alive.

Much in the same way as Boeing is dependent on Emirates to even start 777-9 line up; if Emirates cancel the project is D.E.A.D. unless Boeing fancy repeating the 747-8 expericence of building 30 PAX versions.

Maybe Airbus should make Emirates a A350-900, A350-2000 & A380neo deal if EK dump the 777-9 and kill of Boeing large twins once and for all.
BV
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 5:45 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 64):
Much in the same way as Boeing is dependent on Emirates to even start 777-9 line up; if Emirates cancel the project is D.E.A.D. unless Boeing fancy repeating the 747-8 expericence of building 30 PAX versions.

While Emirates is indeed critical to the 777-9's success at the moment, they have more orders from the other six customers then Emirates (138 to 115) so it's not quite the 747-8 situation.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:09 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 65):

Where would you put breakeven on the 777-X 400-500 frames? Outside of the launch flurry, which would have been sold below cost, they have sold less than 50 frames, 47 to be precise..
BV
 
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enzo011
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 6:57 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 52):
NZ are operating it at 303 passengers. Maybe EK are looking at a J and Y version proportionally sized to the 2 class 77W, perhaps something like 28J and 285Y

Is this once again a case where Sir Tim Clark has made a statement and this has turned out not to be the case? He wanted nothing less than 300 seats, so you were thinking that the A359 might be too small for the airline. Now you see that they are evaluating a airplane that has less seats than the A359.

We could probably also add the A330neo to the list if he is looking at the 789. With EY configuration you have the same amount of seats in the 789 and the A333. So there isn't a big difference in capacity, and if you are looking at regional missions then it is close to the 789 in efficiency. It will cost less, they have operated the A330 before so the 2-3-2 business class fits.

The engines will be RR as well so really they should be looking at the A330neo, 787, A350 and more 777, just because.  
 
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:04 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
Based on average sales prices and what Airbus said they could build an A380 for, each EK delivery is likely giving many scores of millions of profit to Airbus. So with future replacement and expansion orders, EK should still be delivering the better part of nine figures in profit (and eleven figures in revenue) over the next decade-plus.

I don't know about that, based on what Airbus stated needed to be delivered each year break even, I say Airbus is doing just that, breaking even............maybe.
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:08 pm

Quoting william (Reply 68):
I don't know about that, based on what Airbus stated needed to be delivered each year break even, I say Airbus is doing just that, breaking even............maybe.

It's still revenue. It's why Boeing keeps trying to sell 747-8s even though the program is likely to end up as an overall loss.

[Edited 2016-06-08 12:38:49]
 
Okcflyer
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:31 pm

Back on topic between 787 and A350 for EK, has anyone read an analysis using publicly available figures on CASM / Trip Costs for EK's mid-haul sectors?
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 7:37 pm

Quoting Okcflyer (Reply 70):
Back on topic between 787 and A350 for EK, has anyone read an analysis using publicly available figures on CASM / Trip Costs for EK's mid-haul sectors?

I'm not sure there has been one published. Ferpe/Bjorn might have done one for Leeham.net.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 8:20 pm

Quoting Clipper136 (Reply 58):
WOW. NZ really packs them in. UA B789 are also 2 class and ONLY seat 252. 48 J, 88Y+ and 116 Y.
and NZ's J is in 1-1-1 while UA is 2-2-2.

JQ are packing the 788 with 21 J @38" and 314 Y @30". The 789 is ~ 20ft longer so EK if they elected to, could really pack the 789.
 
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sunrisevalley
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 8:37 pm

I would argue that EK are a long way from operating the present A380 in the most efficient manner, They should be closer to 600-seats in the three-class layout to match the DOW to MZFW ratio of something like the 77W or A359. The A380 is just too heavy for its MZFW and when LF's get down to 75% the fuel cost to push the empty seats around really bites into the revenue from the occupied seats.
 
Planesmart
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:32 pm

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
Based on average sales prices and what Airbus said they could build an A380 for, each EK delivery is likely giving many scores of millions of profit to Airbus. So with future replacement and expansion orders, EK should still be delivering the better part of nine figures in profit (and eleven figures in revenue) over the next decade-plus.

And don't under-estimate the economies of scale working predominantly with one customer, and two interiors. EK have had staff at Airbus continuously since the early 00's. I'm sure EK is as demanding as QR, but the relationship works well, with no surprises.

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 73):
I would argue that EK are a long way from operating the present A380 in the most efficient manner, They should be closer to 600-seats in the three-class layout to match the DOW to MZFW ratio of something like the 77W or A359. The A380 is just too heavy for its MZFW and when LF's get down to 75% the fuel cost to push the empty seats around really bites into the revenue from the occupied seats.

And I'm sure EK would argue they know far more about A380 operations, customers, profitability and planned ceo improvements, as well as A & B promises for models yet to fly, than virtually all current a.net contributors combined.
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 9:37 pm

Quoting Planesmart (Reply 74):
And I'm sure EK would argue they know far more about A380 operations, customers, profitability and planned ceo improvements, as well as A & B promises for models yet to fly, than virtually all current a.net contributors combined.

Indeed. It's strange how they keep telling us it's the biggest profit generator in their fleet. So much for operating it inefficiently!   
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
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tortugamon
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:30 pm

Quoting Motorhussy (Reply 43):
Yes, so what it means is, there will be times during the course of the year when 84,000 lb's of thrust is required from the 78X's engines when operating at full capacity out of Dubai's airports.

We know this is about 10-hour missions. There is not a condition at DXB where a full passenger loaded 78X can't fly 10 hours. The concern is around MTOW which means a full belly of cargo, during the hottest days on record, during the hottest part of the day and even then I believe this is more about the cost of engine maintenance then it is about the 78X not being able to do the mission.

Quoting Motorhussy (Reply 43):
Another is that it doesn't currently compete on an equal footing with the A359.

Sure doesn't...the 787 should offer more cargo, possibly lower seat economics, more fleet commonality/flexibility/training advantages, etc. Not an even footing.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 75):
Indeed. It's strange how they keep telling us it's the biggest profit generator in their fleet. So much for operating it inefficiently!

"Emirates has just reported its first annual sales decline in a decade. Its load factor dropped 3.1 points to 76.5%. Its yield fell 10%. Ramping up capacity hardly seems like the right move now."
From this article: Airbus A380: The Death Watch Begins
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richarda...-the-final-countdown/#56c4bb8761b6

tortugamon
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:42 am

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 57):
If Airbus has to close down the A380 they will happily live on having already written off all cost in regards to the A380.

Yes, I'm sure they'd be thrilled selling about as many A380s as there were DC-10s.  
Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 64):
Much in the same way as Boeing is dependent on Emirates to even start 777-9 line up; if Emirates cancel the project is D.E.A.D. unless Boeing fancy repeating the 747-8 expericence of building 30 PAX versions.

Maybe Airbus should make Emirates a A350-900, A350-2000 & A380neo deal if EK dump the 777-9 and kill of Boeing large twins once and for all.

Did somebody touch a nerve?

-Dave
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MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:19 am

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 77):
Did somebody touch a nerve?

-Dave

Nope just pointing out both A & B have an unhealthy reliance on EK, it may be one reason that Airbus has not proceeded with the A380neo, that and cancelling 50 A350's is not a smart way to convince Airbus to proceed with a project for which you are the only obvious large scale customer.

Its thrown into the mix as a serious question, Emirates is also the only obvious large scale customer for the 777-9 and that have shown themselves willing to cancel large orders, so what do Boeing do if EK switch to an A350 stretch?
BV
 
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rotating14
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:03 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 78):
Nope just pointing out both A & B have an unhealthy reliance on EK, it may be one reason that Airbus has not proceeded with the A380neo, that and cancelling 50 A350's is not a smart way to convince Airbus to proceed with a project for which you are the only obvious large scale customer.

Mmmm, not quite. Airbus just said no on a NEO that EK wanted badly, so bad they'd order around 200 of them, and still no NEO. Mr Clark asked for more engine thrust from the 787-10 and Boeing declined because one customer doesn't dictate an aircraft line. Cancellations for the A350's were due to changes in aircraft without EK being consulted before the changes. Airbus walked away with 50 more A380 CEOs so it wasn't too negative.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 78):
Its thrown into the mix as a serious question, Emirates is also the only obvious large scale customer for the 777-9 and that have shown themselves willing to cancel large orders, so what do Boeing do if EK switch to an A350 stretch?

That's only scratching the surface. EK has the LARGEST 77W fleet in the world. What else would they replace the 77W with? The A350-1000 that would debut in 2019?? EK worked with Boeing on the 779 and the 778 for years. Canceling the order hurts them as much as it does Boeing. Also, Airbus themselves don't even know if there is enough market share outside of what Boeing has already tapped for the 779-esque aircraft.
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:21 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 78):
Its thrown into the mix as a serious question, Emirates is also the only obvious large scale customer for the 777-9 and that have shown themselves willing to cancel large orders, so what do Boeing do if EK switch to an A350 stretch?

I've already assumed that that could happen. So, my short answer would be "Not sure, but if it happens, it happens."

I would add, though, that since 2001 Airbus has sold about 179 A380s to carriers other than EK. Total development cost should be in the $25B ballpark.

Since 2013, Boeing has sold 156 777Xs to carriers other than EK. Total development cost should be in the $6B ballpark.

Just looking at the two programs, I'd say that the 777X appears to be in a good position to move forward even if EK were to cancel some/all of their orders. While I'm not a big fan of the program, it's only a few years in and has a solid order foundation - roughly the equivalent number of total orders as the A380 program has, with it just beginning. Even if they only double the current order book, that's still 600 aircraft selling for a decent sum.

I see EK sticking with the A380 for as long as Airbus will build them. I think they also like the 777X. Whether they choose the A350 or 787 for a smaller option is anyone's guess at this point. As a card-carrying pessimist and Boeing fan, I'm assuming the order will go to Airbus.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:13 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
"Emirates has just reported its first annual sales decline in a decade. Its load factor dropped 3.1 points to 76.5%. Its yield fell 10%. Ramping up capacity hardly seems like the right move now."
From this article: Airbus A380: The Death Watch Begins

Ah, Richard Aboulafia? The A380-hater's poster-child.   

From EK's own annual report - profit up 56%, passenger numbers up nearly 8% while fleet capacity up 13% (so no surprise a slight drop in LF - do the math).

As per Tim Clark himself, the A380 is EK's biggest profit generator.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:20 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Mmmm, not quite. Airbus just said no on a NEO that EK wanted badly, so bad they'd order around 200 of them, and still no NEO.

So Clark says but Airbus may have invited him to show them the money before they moved.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Cancellations for the A350's were due to changes in aircraft without EK being consulted before the changes.

Not really, they had 500 -900's and 20 -1000's on order, there were no changes to the -900 yet the entire order was cancelled.

Quoting PhoenixVIP (Reply 79):
The 77W replacement cycle starts and the end of 744s and some A380s will finish.

True but this depends on customers upgaging capacity where as the previous cycle 774-77W was a downguage of capacity and that was before the 500lb gorilla of EK got into its stride. If they don't want to upgauge they don't need a 777-9.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):

That's only scratching the surface. EK has the LARGEST 77W fleet in the world. What else would they replace the 77W with? The A350-1000 that would debut in 2019?? EK worked with Boeing on the 779 and the 778 for years. Canceling the order hurts them as much as it does Boeing. Also, Airbus themselves don't even know if there is enough market share outside of what Boeing has already tapped for the 779-esque aircraft.

a) A350-2000 If they believe that it would be cheaper to operate.
b) Qantas worked on the original 777, Qantas has famously never operated the type
c) So you admit that i=f EK cancel there is a market for the A350-2000 which is my point, I don't expect it to happen though.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 81):
Since 2013, Boeing has sold 156 777Xs to carriers other than EK. Total development cost should be in the $6B ballpark.

I'd probably argue with the $6bn number but yes D.E.A.D is overstating the issue, the program lives even if EK cancels.
BV
 
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Ncfc99
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 6:58 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 62):
Based on average sales prices and what Airbus said they could build an A380 for, each EK delivery is likely giving many scores of millions of profit to Airbus.

Could you give us the numbers, or a link to them please? I'd love to know......

Quoting william (Reply 68):
I don't know about that, based on what Airbus stated needed to be delivered each year break even, I say Airbus is doing just that, breaking even............maybe.

They are cutting overheads by transfering buildings etc to other lines, this will bring down the breakeven number required per year.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Mmmm, not quite. Airbus just said no on a NEO that EK wanted badly, so bad they'd order around 200 of them, and still no NEO.

Mmmmm, not quite either. There was an Airbus guy who recently said they will do the 380neo, but not yet. Thats certainly not a no.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Cancellations for the A350's were due to changes in aircraft without EK being consulted before the changes

In my opinion they used that as an excuse, they need capacity whilst at DXB in the form of big aircraft, i.e 777X's and 388's.

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Airbus walked away with 50 more A380 CEOs so it wasn't too negative.

Far from being negative in any way, it was a big positive, 70 350's for 50 388's. at the time the 350 didn't need those sales but the 388 did, the 1st of those 50 with RR engines are soon to start to be delivered.
 
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EPA001
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:04 am

Quoting rotating14 (Reply 80):
Airbus just said no on a NEO that EK wanted badly, so bad they'd order around 200 of them, and still no NEO.

I guess Airbus has said "not yet" to TC, though that is pure speculation from my part.

It is just too soon for an A380-neo imho, especially since there is no engine available that would be again half a generation or so better than the GE9X. In 2025, the aircraft is 20 years old and about 17 years in operation. That would be about the right time. The first B77W was delivered to Air France in April 2004. Probably the B777-9 will fly operationally in 2020. That is 16 years.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 82):
From EK's own annual report - profit up 56%, passenger numbers up nearly 8% while fleet capacity up 13% (so no surprise a slight drop in LF - do the math).

As per Tim Clark himself, the A380 is EK's biggest profit generator.

Yes, some may not like it, but these numbers prove that what EK is doing, including its massive A380 operations, is the right course for them to follow.  .

Now with the upcoming A350 or B787 order they will introduce a third size of aircraft in their fleet with a different kind of operations model. That will be interesting to watch. I will not predict which way this order will go, to me it is a 50/50 case. So too hard to tell.  
 
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KarelXWB
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:27 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
the 787 should offer more cargo

Actually no. Although the 787-10 has larger belly volume, it won't be able to lift it out of DXB at MTOW. It will be payload restricted whereas the A350 should be able to lift more payload out of DXB.

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
"Emirates has just reported its first annual sales decline in a decade. Its load factor dropped 3.1 points to 76.5%. Its yield fell 10%. Ramping up capacity hardly seems like the right move now."

Yet they just recorded their highest profit ever. Did you actually read the annual report?

[Edited 2016-06-09 02:49:55]
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zeke
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:47 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):


We know this is about 10-hour missions. There is not a condition at DXB where a full passenger loaded 78X can't fly 10 hours. The concern is around MTOW which means a full belly of cargo, during the hottest days on record, during the hottest part of the day and even then I believe this is more about the cost of engine maintenance then it is about the 78X not being able to do the mission

We don't know that at all. What you are failing to take into account is the 787-10 will have 15-20 tonnes of galley, seats, IFE, and catering onboard for a full passenger load. Add other real life factors like return fuel, return catering where operationally required anyone who has been in the industry knows the results are not as good as the brochure.

I hope Boeing does get the order, the pilots on the A330/A340 have been working very hard. About time the 777 pilots share the pain.
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tistpaa727
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:02 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 76):
"Emirates has just reported its first annual sales decline in a decade. Its load factor dropped 3.1 points to 76.5%. Its yield fell 10%. Ramping up capacity hardly seems like the right move now."
From this article: Airbus A380: The Death Watch Begins
http://www.forbes.com/sites/richarda...761b6

I still do not understand why anyone would get their information from Forbes.com. The site pays writers per the click which leads to click bait headlines like the one you link to. To compound the issue I can write an article and have forbes.com publish it (it's my real job to know and do this). Forbes, the print publication, is different and actually has an editorial review process. My comments are for the online only articles that anyone can publish.

Back on topic - who knows which way this order will go. It's going to come down to who will bend the most for TC. A mix of 787/350 would be ideal but I believe TC stated this is a winner take all order.
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PhoenixVIP
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:12 am

Quoting EPA001 (Reply 85):

Any A380neo rendition needs to be ahead of the 777X and engine technology only just were developed for it. You don't have technology for the post 2025 period and no manufacturer would launch an aircraft nearly 10 years before it went into service.

Quoting zeke (Reply 87):

Correct it's like saying the A321-LR is the perfect transatlantic plane but from which two points exactly and at what capacity?

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 88):

Someone who enjoys posting rubbish, ie. the person you quote.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 83):
True but this depends on customers upgaging capacity where as the previous cycle 774-77W was a downguage of capacity and that was before the 500lb gorilla of EK got into its stride. If they don't want to upgauge they don't need a 777-9.

That is true but do we know if the time of replacement cycle, over the next decade, will see demand increase or decrease? LHR won't get an extra runway for what we know, China will get new airports but no new airspace, etc. Its too hard to predict. But that replacement cycle will see success to the A350 and 777X aircraft for those being conservative. It is a good spot of the market to occupy.

Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 88):
Back on topic - who knows which way this order will go. It's going to come down to who will bend the most for TC. A mix of 787/350 would be ideal but I believe TC stated this is a winner take all order.

Really, there are enough space for EK to operate both of the type if they really want their aircraft tailor made to their operations. DWC will also bring some more frequency that may not justify two A380s or 777Xs etc but perhaps a A380 and A350 combo to America or 777X and 787-9 combo to Asia.
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osteogenesis
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 11:27 am

Quoting Stitch (Reply 60):
But then I wasn't suggested EK would move away from the A380, just that they don't have to buy the A350 to keep Airbus building the A380, which is what osteogenesis suggested could influence EK into choosing the A350 even if it was not the best option.

I just said that it would be one more relevant factor. I don't believe it is the determining factor.
 
justloveplanes
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 4:29 pm

Quoting zeke (Reply 87):
I hope Boeing does get the order, the pilots on the A330/A340 have been working very hard. About time the 777 pilots share the pain.

I guess this is a digression, but what do you mean? Long hours for the A330/340 fleet pilots? The regional flying is a bigger grind than long haul at Emirates?
 
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Stitch
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Thu Jun 09, 2016 5:00 pm

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 83):
a) A350-2000 If they believe that it would be cheaper to operate.

EK wanted a plane that could carry a bit more people than the 777-300ER without as severe performance restrictions on 14-16 hour missions (LAX, SFO, IAH). A second stretch to the A350 is likely not going to have that performance for them. So revenue increases could trump cost savings (an argument often put forward for the A330-200 vis-a-vis the 787-8).

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 83):
b) Qantas worked on the original 777, Qantas has famously never operated the type.

Part of that though was the Australian Aviation Authorities extreme conservatism on long-range over-water operations on two engines that impacted most-favorable routing with a twin versus a quad.

Quoting Ncfc99 (Reply 84):
Could you give us the numbers, or a link to them please? I'd love to know......

In general a new EK A380 is bringing in around $250 million total. Airbus' share of that is probably north of $125-150 million and their production costs were projected to be around $100 million.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 83):
True but this depends on customers upgaging capacity where as the previous cycle 774-77W was a downguage of capacity and that was before the 500lb gorilla of EK got into its stride. If they don't want to upgauge they don't need a 777-9.

Even if they do not want to upgauge, if they are 10-abreast in Economy the 777-9 will leave them capacity neutral whereas the A350-1000 would be a downgauage. Also Business Class is moving from 6 and 7-abreast to 4-abreast on many carriers so the extra floorspace of the 777-9 allows them to maintain Business Class capacity without adversely affecting Economy Class or expand Premium Economy capacity.
 
tortugamon
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:22 am

Quoting scbriml (Reply 81):
Ah, Richard Aboulafia? The A380-hater's poster-child.  

And one of the most accurate A380 prognosticators out there. Sorry if it hurts your feelings. I like the aircraft too.

Quoting scbriml (Reply 81):
As per Tim Clark himself, the A380 is EK's biggest profit generator.

The biggest revenue generator also generates the most profit...say it ain't so. Not sure why some see that as a big revelation. It should!

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 85):
Actually no. Although the 787-10 has larger belly volume, it won't be able to lift it out of DXB at MTOW. It will be payload restricted whereas the A350 should be able to lift more payload out of DXB.

80% of the world's population live within 8 hours of DXB. We know this regional aircraft acquisition is not flying to Australia or the Americas. Its kinda hard to find even 9 hour non-America/Australia routes let alone 10-hour routes. That route distance is full of oceans from DXB. I really can't find many EK routes

Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 85):
Yet they just recorded their highest profit ever. Did you actually read the annual report?

Nope, I have not. Not sure why 'highest profit ever' is substantiation for why going forward A380s are hugely desirable when LF and Yield are declining and are a tribute to maximum efficiency. Max Net Income sure, I can get behind that. Max return on investment/capital is another story all together.

Quoting zeke (Reply 86):
I hope Boeing does get the order, the pilots on the A330/A340 have been working very hard. About time the 777 pilots share the pain.

I am sure the pilots for those 12 aircraft (less than 5% of fleet and disappearing this year) work real hard  
Quoting tistpaa727 (Reply 87):
I still do not understand why anyone would get their information from Forbes.com.

I would be interested in any facts why the info is wrong rather than just disparaging the source. Kind of easy and lazy just to criticize without offering better evidence. I agree that the 25% size difference figure between the 779 and A380 is a mistake. Rather boring just to ignore. I take a forbes.com article over a random a-net poster; I hope you understand

tortugamon
 
mjoelnir
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:15 am

Quoting tortugamon (Reply 92):
Max Net Income sure, I can get behind that. Max return on investment/capital is another story all together.

IMO you should think about your statement.

Emirates finances for 2015-2016.
Assets are up from 111.4 to 119.2, that is up by 7%
Equity is up from 28.3 to 32.4, that is up 14%
Earnings are up from 5.9 to 9.3, that is up 58%

So it is quite clear, that despite taking a hit in load factor, both return on investment and return on equity or own capital are significantly up. And yes there is usually a correlation between increasing earnings and increasing return on investment.

Apart from the above, return on equity with 29% and equity itself with 27% of assets are nice numbers.
 
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scbriml
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:22 pm

Quoting mjoelnir (Reply 93):
So it is quite clear, that despite taking a hit in load factor,

Load factor only took a hit because fleet capacity rose by 13% while passenger numbers rose by a 'lowly' 8%. None of which matters a jot when you look at the profit increase.   
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dubaiamman243
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:35 pm

Load Factor is different than seat factor

Load Factor is an indication of utilization.

LF = RPK/ASK
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sunrisevalley
Topic Author
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:06 pm

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 95):
LF = RPK/ASK

Are you sure? I have understood it to be the number of occupied seats as a percentage of the total seats. I think RPK should be something like APK ; actual passenger( seats occupied) km's.
 
dubaiamman243
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:12 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 96):

Seat factor = occupied seats/available seats.

LF= (Revenue Pax KMs vs Available Seat KMs)
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sunrisevalley
Topic Author
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:17 pm

Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 97):
LF= (Revenue Pax KMs vs Available Seat KMs)

seems to me to make this formular work you need to include a revenue component in the ASK part of it.
 
a380787
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RE: EK And The 787-10 / A359

Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:19 pm

Quoting sunrisevalley (Reply 96):

Are you sure? I have understood it to be the number of occupied seats as a percentage of the total seats. I think RPK should be something like APK ; actual passenger( seats occupied) km's.
Quoting dubaiamman243 (Reply 97):

Seat factor = occupied seats/available seats.

LF= (Revenue Pax KMs vs Available Seat KMs)

dubaiamman243 is correct. Of course, when observing just a single route, those 2 are equivalent. It's only when airlines report aggregated metrics, such as systemwide LF, would those actually diverge.

The caveat of the official metric is that you can have an airline that has poor loads domestically+regionally and good loads in international long-haul, and the aggregated single number might look better than what it is.

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