Moderators: jsumali2, richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR

 
a380787
Posts: 4573
Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2013 4:38 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 9:32 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 49):

Pretty common knowledge that DL wasn't doing all that well SEA-LHR except in summer. Interesting they were able to convince VS to take over the route for them...I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to less than daily at some point. Maybe VS can make money where DL could not? Or it was a quid pro quo involving other route swaps?

As a 49% shareholder of VS, any of their LHR-US moves are less likely about "convince" but more along the lines of "decree".

The rather short-lived experiments of having VS handle some DTW and ATL is a testament to that. Other than fuel prices, it's not like the macro economic conditions between early 2015 and today has shifted *that* much that requires a reversal of strategy.
 
bkflyguy
Posts: 251
Joined: Wed Dec 05, 2012 6:25 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 10:19 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 49):

Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that DL/VS have a metal-neutral JV similar to the JV with AF/KL and share all revenue and losses. Thus, the idea that DL couldn't make money but VS can is misleading, since all the losses and profits go into the same pot. The only real issues are whether the cost structures of the two airlines are substantially different, and what level of service DL is required to maintain per its agreement with the pilots.

I think this and many of the similar route adjustments has more to do with getting a particular product and/or capacity on a particular route. With respect to Seattle, I think they wanted to get a VS 789 on the route with the premium economy product and DL can start PDX with a lower capacity 763.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3670
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 10:22 pm

Quoting bkflyguy (Reply 51):
Someone can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe that DL/VS have a metal-neutral JV similar to the JV with AF/KL and share all revenue and losses. Thus, the idea that DL couldn't make money but VS can is misleading, since all the losses and profits go into the same pot. The only real issues are whether the cost structures of the two airlines are substantially different, and what level of service DL is required to maintain per its agreement with the pilots.

Exactly, but why discuss facts when you can spend multiple posts bashing Delta and their "control" over VS?
 
jetlanta
Posts: 1674
Joined: Thu Jul 12, 2001 2:35 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 10:38 pm

Quoting HiflyerAS (Reply 49):
Pretty common knowledge that DL wasn't doing all that well SEA-LHR except in summer. Interesting they were able to convince VS to take over the route for them...I wouldn't be surprised if it goes to less than daily at some point. Maybe VS can make money where DL could not? Or it was a quid pro quo involving other route swaps?

I won't pile on in terms of your basic misunderstanding of the DL/VS joint venture. But the fact is that VS will be operating MORE seats on the route than Delta was. This would not typically be associated with a route that was't "doing all that well".
 
alfa164
Posts: 4022
Joined: Sat Oct 06, 2012 2:47 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 10:44 pm

Quoting FSDan (Reply 13):
Interesting! So DL will no longer fly to MAN, instead relying entirely on VS for that market.

While I am sure it is a minor consideration, it means DL won't have to keep any company staff - or contract work - at MAN.

Quoting Andy33 (Reply 31):
JNB, CPT, DEL, LOS, DXB are about it, and I haven't checked to see if the connections actually work.

VS no longer flies to CPT... sadly...
 
loggat
Posts: 439
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2000 11:34 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 11:07 pm

Quoting alfa164 (Reply 54):
While I am sure it is a minor consideration, it means DL won't have to keep any company staff - or contract work - at MAN.

VS flies the route for the summer. DL will return to the route for the winter.
 
User avatar
flybynight
Posts: 1539
Joined: Wed Jul 30, 2003 1:58 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 11:11 pm

Will this be the first regular service of the 787 to Seattle?
 
TheAccountant
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Oct 14, 2015 10:41 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 11:19 pm

Looking at MIDT bookings, it looks like DL is definitely holding its own in the SEALHR market against BA from the US point of sale. In fact, it looks like DL probably took more bookings share in both the Premium and Economy cabins than its seat share would suggest, while BA was slightly below.

UK point of sale looks to be another story, though. BA dominates the share, with Delta only taking share in the teens percentage. This would be below expected share based on capacity with BA higher than expected share.

With industry demand between SEA and LHR roughly evenly split between UK sales and US sales, I think I see the strategy in this swap: Delta expects that it will be able to retain a large majority of the US point of sale bookings when the flight switches to Virgin. On the other hand, Delta and Virgin expect that they will get a much larger share of the UK point of sale bookings when they switch the metal to Virgin.

Looking at T100 data for load factors, it looks as though Delta performed fine on the SEALHR route for the summer period. In the shoulder months, it doesn't look as great. Granted, you can't really compare SEALHR to SEA-AMS/CDG as the latter are hub-to-hub routes while SEALHR is mini-hub to spoke. But clearly there is room for improvement, especially in the shoulder months when UK point of sale makes up a larger percent of the bookings.

Other than LHR, I posted all carrier load factors for reference for the past 9 months. A few observations:

-Delta seems to do pretty well overall SEA-international. AMS and CDG look very strong. As do all of the Asia routes except for SEAHND.
-It is easy to see why Emirates decided to go double daily, but once they got to double daily in early July...OUCH. Probably not a sustainable second flight. But I seriously doubt they will cut it as that would hurt Tim Clark's ego far too badly. Will be interesting to see once data in available for Dec of 2015 and Jan/Feb of 2016.
-Korean and ANA are definitely laggards. Wouldn't have thought that to be the case. Generally their aircraft are so sparse on density, I figured they would be more full
-Can see why Condor is adding SEAMUC


Load Factors by Month by Carrier - SEA International Routes

Delta Air Lines
...................March.....April.....May.....June.....July.....Aug.....Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAAMS.....90.5%....82.9%..85.1%..88.4%..85.7%..91.7%..92.2%..83.9%..83.6%
SEACDG.....83.2%....77.7%..87.0%..90.5%..89.5%..91.9%..93.0%..88.3%..84.7%
SEALHR......61.9%....55.2%..61.7%..78.8%..83.8%..84.1%..83.9%..69.8%..57.5%

SEANRT......93.8%....86.7%..91.9%..94.1%..91.5%..94.6%..93.7%..93.2%..89.5%
SEAICN.......82.5%....83.8%..91.0%..89.9%..87.4%..93.7%..85.8%..91.1%..86.9%
SEAHKG.....82.6%....85.1%..92.1%..90.1%..83.2%..90.5%..80.5%..85.1%..92.6%
SEAPEK.....84.1%....87.5%..83.1%..88.7%..91.5%..96.6%..88.3%..81.8%..80.9%
SEAPVG.....81.4%....82.9%..88.5%..90.7%..86.0%..93.2%..80.2%..79.8%..77.1%
SEAHND.....86.7%....50.5%..66.3%..76.6%..76.8%..81.8%..76.8%


British Airways
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEALHR......83.3%...80.8%..88.2%..93.1%..91.1%..93.3%..92.5%..85.8%..73.1%


EVA Air
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEATPE......86.8%...76.8%..80.2%..83.6%..85.0%..89.0%..89.0%..68.9%..75.8%


Condor
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAFRA..................97.8%..95.2%..96.3%..89.5%..89.5%..93.5%..84.2%


Emirates Airline
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEADXB......89.3%...80.3%..88.4%..92.8%..83.7%..87.7%..67.2%..49.1%..58.1%


Icelandair
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAKEF......83.8%...88.4%..85.3%..88.0%..86.9%..89.7%..89.3%..82.3%..83.3%


Hainan
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAPEK......91.4%...88.6%..82.0%..87.7%..91.2%..92.2%..85.1%
SEAPVG.........................................86.7%..85.7%..90.2%..71.2%


Korean Air
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAICN.......74.6%...73.5%..78.3%..74.8%..80.0%..86.8%..77.0%..74.2%..69.2%


Lufthansa
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAFRA......76.0%...73.0%..81.0%..89.0%..91.2%..90.9%..89.3%..74.9%..59.6%


ANA
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEANRT......79.8%...74.7%..62.7%..75.5%..76.7%..83.0%..74.7%..62.1%..72.0%


Asiana
...................March....April.....May.....June....July.....Aug......Sept.....Oct......Nov
SEAICN.......89.3%...88.7%..83.6%..83.1%..87.4%..93.1%..85.4%..86.7%..84.5%
 
ooslc
Posts: 323
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 12:51 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue May 31, 2016 11:33 pm

Quoting flybynight (Reply 56):
Will this be the first regular service of the 787 to Seattle?

Most definitely not. ANA has a 789 to NRT. Don't know if Hainan does still or if upgraded.
 
hiflyeras
Posts: 2390
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2011 6:48 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 2:16 am

Quoting TheAccountant (Reply 57):

Thanks so much for this...facts are a wonderful thing.
 
grbauc
Posts: 1469
Joined: Sat Mar 28, 2015 9:05 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 3:23 am

Quoting B747forever (Reply 11):
eems Delta beat BA on starting LHR-PDX. Too bad as I would have preferred BA.

So is the thought now BA won't start the rout??
 
n7371f
Topic Author
Posts: 1861
Joined: Fri Jul 04, 2008 3:54 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 3:53 am

Delta's SEA-LHR does just fine. The corporate contracts and front cabin business make it work. And, yes, like a previous poster - Delta wouldn't be adding 54 seats each way, a day, if it were taking a bath. Delta actually thinks it can improve the metrics with a higher seat factor, lower costs because of the plane and a more "grand" experience in upper class versus Delta One (although they'll never say that publically).

But back to my original post at the top...The Virgin brand is being brought into Seattle to also muddy the waters for Alaska as it pertains to its Virgin America buy.

Delta has found that there's a lot of assumption in the Seattle market that Alaska is buying Virgin. Note Virgin and not America. Bringing in Virgin Atlantic affirms that it's affiliated with Delta and not Alaska - and to remind the public that Alaska is only getting the airline out of San Francisco. One idea being that every time Alaska is mentioned in the local news, which is nearly constant in Seattle, copy will include something about Virgin America - and now will likely allude to Virgin Atlantic to clarify they are two separate carriers.

Also, in a backhanded way, Delta hopes the Virgin Atlantic brand and its "creature comforts" grab some attention and following - and hurt Alaska when it announces it's doing away with the Virgin brand and hip service.

I know the last two paragraphs won't go over well with some but it is what it is. And the game plan certainly is open to criticism. Is this really worth it? Would it backfire? But this is part of the thinking going on...

And with Portland, Delta opens up a slot at LHR - and a 76W. Delta tests the PDX market and also jumps on BA if they chose to launch and rely on AS.
 
toobz
Posts: 900
Joined: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:33 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 4:25 am

DLs numbers look pretty damn good actually. Especially since all we hear is how they are failing in SEA. Load factor on the LHR flight I see definitely going up with VS on it. This is really great news for SEA and PDX!
 
MSPNWA
Posts: 3698
Joined: Thu Apr 23, 2009 2:48 am

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:08 am

Quoting jetlanta (Reply 53):
But the fact is that VS will be operating MORE seats on the route than Delta was. This would not typically be associated with a route that was't "doing all that well".

Even without the glaring numbers that say SEA-LHR is doing poorly, the counterargument is stronger. And that argument is why make a change if DL metal is doing well. Don't fix what isn't broken, right?

There's holes in the argument that increasing capacity is a sign of strength. The first is that the VS's 789 will bring a more efficient aircraft to the route. A larger aircraft in this case is as much an argument against it doing well as the opposite. And second, VS may bring about improving the U.K. point of sale, which TheAccountment mentions BA does very well in. Again, that would be a sign of DL struggling.

Quoting TheAccountant (Reply 57):
SEALHR......61.9%....55.2%..61.7%..78.8%..83.8%..84.1%..83.9%..69.8%..57.5%

Ouch. Merely okay for three months, and flat-out awful for five months. And we're not even including January and February.

Quoting n7371f (Reply 61):
Delta's SEA-LHR does just fine.
Quoting toobz (Reply 62):
DLs numbers look pretty damn good actually.

The numbers say otherwise. Even with good yields it's performing poorly. And yields are probably not great with BA in a dominant position.
 
User avatar
LAX772LR
Posts: 14428
Joined: Sun Nov 09, 2014 11:06 pm

RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jun 01, 2016 5:21 am

Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 63):
And that argument is why make a change if DL metal is doing well. Don't fix what isn't broken, right?

Um, no... not right.
In fact, that's probably the worst advice they could get.

Staying with a status quo, if your research suggests you can grow at yield, creates an opportunity cost that you then have to justify.


Quoting MSPNWA (Reply 63):
The first is that the VS's 789 will bring a more efficient aircraft to the route

And also one with outstanding acquisition cost that eats into such efficiency gains. It goes both ways.
 
ANA787
Posts: 945
Joined: Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:00 pm

Re: RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:10 am

flyoregon wrote:
Quoting BoeingGuy (Reply 41):I don't agree with that. PDX has long been speculated on A.net to get LHR service soon, albiet on BA.

I wonder if DL will also start PDX-CDG now. I would have expected that instead of LHR.

PDX is overdue for an LHR link. I too thought CDG would come before LHR with Delta, and frankly CDG makes a lot more sense. On the Oregon thread I asked if this might get BA to start now, and because DL isn't until May 2017, maybe BA can announce and launch sooner? BA makes more sense anyway.


BA flying pdx-lhr does make more sense than DL, but honestly I'm actually kind of glad it's DL. If both BA and DL were operating PDX-LHR I would fly DL in a heart beat...anything to avoid terminal 5. I had the worst connection experience possible connecting with BA International - International at terminal 5. Severely understaffed, people missing flights left and right after hours or more in the security lines. We are spoiled that we have the opportunity to connect through AMS from PDX.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 1:30 am

Interesting to see the build up of DL at SEA on long haul being slowly pared back. Some transpacific routes do not go out daily, I believe at least one has been cut, and now they won't be flying their own metal on the LHR route. Hmmm...Does this call into question the viability of Seattle as a hub for Delta to better compete with what AA is building at LAX and what UA has and grows at SFO (and to a much lesser extent, LAX, but LAX is still there for UA)? I thought the whole point of SEA was that it was 45 or so minutes closer to Asia than SFO and LAX. If LHR can't work for Delta, what does VS bring to the table? It has almost no feed at LHR?
 
Andy33
Posts: 2570
Joined: Tue Sep 15, 2009 9:30 am

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 5:21 am

Cointrin330 wrote:
If LHR can't work for Delta, what does VS bring to the table? It has almost no feed at LHR?

Have you missed the earlier posts pointing out that Delta and Virgin Atlantic have a metal-neutral JV on transatlantic flights, and that in addition Delta owns 49% of Virgin Atlantic?
By reshuffling which JV member operates which rotation across the Atlantic, Seattle-London gets a shiny new 789 with more capacity than the Delta 767, including a significant amount of genuine premium economy seating. Then there's brand recognition at the UK end- the objective is to sell tickets to UK residents as well as US residents. Delta has a long and proud history in the USA, but it isn't the first name anyone in Britain would think of when looking for a transatlantic flight. Virgin Atlantic, on the other hand...
As the flights carry Delta codeshares, no feed or market share is lost at the US end.
Yes, there's minimal additional feed at LHR from VS, but there's minimal feed to DL anyway - people coming from mainland Europe would likely be routed through AMS or CDG to cities on the Delta network.
 
User avatar
OA412
Moderator
Posts: 4949
Joined: Thu Dec 28, 2000 6:22 am

Re: RE: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 2:12 pm

MSPNWA wrote:
Quoting n7371f (Reply 61):Delta's SEA-LHR does just fine.Quoting toobz (Reply 62):DLs numbers look pretty damn good actually.
The numbers say otherwise. Even with good yields it's performing poorly. And yields are probably not great with BA in a dominant position.

It couldn't be any clearer that he's talking about SEA int'l routes as a whole and not just LHR...
 
airzona11
Posts: 1907
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:30 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Interesting to see the build up of DL at SEA on long haul being slowly pared back. Some transpacific routes do not go out daily, I believe at least one has been cut, and now they won't be flying their own metal on the LHR route. Hmmm...Does this call into question the viability of Seattle as a hub for Delta to better compete with what AA is building at LAX and what UA has and grows at SFO (and to a much lesser extent, LAX, but LAX is still there for UA)? I thought the whole point of SEA was that it was 45 or so minutes closer to Asia than SFO and LAX. If LHR can't work for Delta, what does VS bring to the table? It has almost no feed at LHR?


Are you choosing to omit some basic facts about the move? Delta / VA have a JV and Delta owns 49%. If Delta was doing poorly, would they not remove capacity? Instead DL is adding capacity and more premium seats. AND they are adding 4 weekly flights down to PDX - LHR. What about any of this is bad about their SEA operation?
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 10475
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Tue Jul 19, 2016 3:37 pm

Cointrin330 wrote:
Interesting to see the build up of DL at SEA on long haul being slowly pared back.


Where's your evidence for that specifically? I don't mean seasonal adjustments vs. peak season. Show cutbacks in routes/seats/frequencies on an annual basis year over year.
 
Cointrin330
Posts: 2268
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2016 12:23 pm

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jul 20, 2016 1:44 am

I don't have the numbers, I was just asking (GENERALLY) whether DL was holding its own in the build up of the SEA hub and whether the growth was sustainable, is all. Perhaps seasonal adjustments reflect a higher percentage because the daily flight schedule is under 200 but perhaps over time, it will grow. I do think SEA is a viable and very competitive alternative to SFO and LAX and if it grows, with time, it will be on a more level playing field. SFO and LAX as gateways are naturally larger because the O&D will be stronger there. To be clear, I do hope Delta can succeed there. I am also curious what they are planning to do with Asia-Pac routes out of LAX.
 
User avatar
11725Flyer
Posts: 1462
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 4:51 pm

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:08 am

Let's put this thread to a rest. DL/VS isn't going to leave SEA. Period. The DL hub to Asia will slowly gain strength. Period.
 
User avatar
EA CO AS
Posts: 15892
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2001 8:54 am

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jul 20, 2016 2:50 am

11725Flyer wrote:
The DL hub to Asia will slowly gain strength. Period.


Unless it doesn't.

Point being, your crystal ball is no clearer than anyone else's. No one knows how this will play out for DL over the long term.
 
airzona11
Posts: 1907
Joined: Wed Dec 17, 2014 5:44 am

Re: VS Comes To SEA-LHR; DL Goes To PDX-LHR

Wed Jul 20, 2016 3:44 am

Delta has positive momentum. They are growing and they are profitable.
AS has positive momentum. They are growing and they are profitable.

This is awesome and shows the network effects, demand creation and generation going on in SEA. The jobs market there can sustain national and international travel. And it can be from more than 1 carrier.

The doom and gloom on these forums from the people in the AS / SEA camp is misguided and being proven wrong. Competition is good and healthy.

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos