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keesje
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:32 am

Thanks Karel, for merging with the official Airbus production outlook.


Looking at:
- A321 deliveries and the trend of the last 5 years. (http://oi61.tinypic.com/ju901g.jpg)
- the existing A320 backlog (5500, http://www.airbus.com/company/market/orders-deliveries/)
- production rates, moving to 60/months in a few years (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-airbus-commercial-output-idUSKCN0YL1XC)
- A321 CEO's delivered (1300) and on order (400) with lowish retirement rates and new life extensions programs
a remarkable observations comes up:

- The A321 fleet will triple to around 4000 In 2023 - .

E.g. more then all 757, 767, 737 versions over the last 35 yrs combined. Boeings situation in this segment is far weaker than at first sight, apparently they underestimated. (http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2010/08/sharks_and_jets.html) Boeing is at risk being wiped out in this segment. This explains recent Max-10 and MoM rumblings.

Image
Last edited by keesje on Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 11:38 am

The backlog according to the Juni numbers from Airbus is 487 A320ceo and 387 A321ceo.
 
ThirtyWest
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:18 pm

PacificBeach88 wrote:
One thing that always amuses me about the various arm chair CEOs, is that they take a recent trend of the past 3 or 4 years and turn it into a future. The airline business is chaotic at best. With fuel, competition, economic growth/retraction, and all of the other variables, running an airline is tough. Just because the A321 is the cat's PJs right now doesn't mean it will be in 3 or 4 years from now. Just like 50 seat regional jets were all the rage just 15 years ago, now they are millstones around airline's necks. The only constant in an airline's business is massive change.


This is the most astute post in the entire thread. All the armchair CEOs' breathless excitement over "A322s" and stretches of stretches ignores an important part of the equation: RASM. Sure, an A321 brings a certain unit-cost advantage versus an A320. But -- particularly in the United States -- the airlines' single-minded focus these days is capacity discipline. And that's because dumping a bunch of capacity into the market in the form of A321s over A320s, 739s over 738s, 789s over 788s, etc., will increase supply to a point that fares and RASM plummet. There's no point in rationalizing unit costs by using larger aircraft if unit revenues will drop by a larger amount. That's why we've seen BA down-gauge some 787 family orders to the 788, NK down-gauge A321neos to A320neos, AA take more 788s than initially planned, and so on.

There's certainly a significant place for A321-sized aircraft, but I think armchair CEOs tend to greatly overestimate that role while underestimating the effect of increased capacity on unit revenues.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 1:32 pm

ThirtyWest wrote:
PacificBeach88 wrote:
One thing that always amuses me about the various arm chair CEOs, is that they take a recent trend of the past 3 or 4 years and turn it into a future. The airline business is chaotic at best. With fuel, competition, economic growth/retraction, and all of the other variables, running an airline is tough. Just because the A321 is the cat's PJs right now doesn't mean it will be in 3 or 4 years from now. Just like 50 seat regional jets were all the rage just 15 years ago, now they are millstones around airline's necks. The only constant in an airline's business is massive change.


This is the most astute post in the entire thread. All the armchair CEOs' breathless excitement over "A322s" and stretches of stretches ignores an important part of the equation: RASM. Sure, an A321 brings a certain unit-cost advantage versus an A320. But -- particularly in the United States -- the airlines' single-minded focus these days is capacity discipline. And that's because dumping a bunch of capacity into the market in the form of A321s over A320s, 739s over 738s, 789s over 788s, etc., will increase supply to a point that fares and RASM plummet. There's no point in rationalizing unit costs by using larger aircraft if unit revenues will drop by a larger amount. That's why we've seen BA down-gauge some 787 family orders to the 788, NK down-gauge A321neos to A320neos, AA take more 788s than initially planned, and so on.

There's certainly a significant place for A321-sized aircraft, but I think armchair CEOs tend to greatly overestimate that role while underestimating the effect of increased capacity on unit revenues.


Fine sentiment, but absolutely past the realities. There are more 787-8 up gouged to 787-9 than down gouged from 787-9 to 787-8. There are more A320 up gouged to A321 than A321 down gouged to A320. And one reminder, what happens in the USA is only part of the picture, still quite big but ever decreasing.
 
gloom
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 2:13 pm

enzo011 wrote:
What about a folding wingtip to ensure it fits into current gates?


It's not only gate width to overcome, but also taxiway wingspan limits. Both would be affected, I guess (as it was with B757).

Cheers,
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ThirtyWest
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:44 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
what happens in the USA is only part of the picture,


I certainly agree with that. However, this --

mjoelnir wrote:
Fine sentiment, but absolutely past the realities.


-- isn't so true. There are several "realities" in question:

(1) Yes, Asia is a growing market where demand could well sustain large numbers of NBs larger than the A320/738.

(2) For North American legacy and low-cost carriers, and European legacy carriers, the mantra is capacity discipline -- particularly in anticipation of a possible if not likely economic downturn. The "reality" for these carriers, as they themselves state in every single quarterly earnings call or presentation, is that they're keen on managing capacity growth. The fact the A321neo offers a unit cost advantage over the A320neo is undeniable, but what happens to unit revenues when you add in all that capacity? Unless fares are totally inelastic and people are basically paying the same airfare despite a shift in the supply curve, unit revenues go down, and the value proposition of the larger aircraft diminishes. An extreme analogy, perhaps, but this is why you don't see SK operating OSL-ARN with A330s, or UA operating ORD-IND with 739ERs. If you put that much capacity in the market, I'm sure you could fill the seats, but unit revenues would be pennies. I have the sense that many enthusiasts don't see the nuance in terms of capacity management relative to demand. Not so much an issue in Asia and the Middle East, but it's certainly an issue in North America and Europe.

Again, I do not mean to imply that there's not a very large market for A321/739-sized aircraft. I just think a lot of the hype for that market segment among armchair CEOs does not consider the full set of factors that airlines consider in making long-term fleet decisions. Unit costs are only part of the equation, and you must consider whether airfares can be sustained or even increased despite capacity increases.
Last edited by ThirtyWest on Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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keesje
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 3:58 pm

Thirtywest, United has not ordered A321's.

But its getting lonely at the top. AA, DL, Spirit, Frontier, Jetblue, Hawaiian are absorbing them as their Transcon platforms.

Image

The US based A321 fleet will easily triple too in 7 years based on already ordered aircraft.
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ThirtyWest
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 4:12 pm

keesje wrote:
Thirtywest, United has not ordered A321's.


Right. That's why my reference to UA involves the 739ER.

keesje wrote:
AA, DL, Spirit, Frontier, Jetblue, Hawaiian are absorbing them as their Transcon platforms.


And that's certainly a terrific role for the aircraft -- longer routes that drive down unit costs while still commanding high-quality unit revenues. And it's a high-tech, comfortable, safe, quiet airplane.

But Spirit converted its entire A321neo order to the A320neo earlier this year. Frontier actually still has A319neos on order (although I think everyone expects those to be delivered as A320neos). And Delta's plan for the A321, to the surprise of many (myself included), is to use it as a mostly East Coast airplane in dense markets (see recent thread confirming no aux tanks on those aircraft).

Edited to add: I'm a huge fan of innovation and of Keesje's insight and wisdom on this forum over the many years I've followed it. My only point in the posts above is that there's still an important role for A320/738-sized airplanes, and I'm not sure we'll see as large a shift to the larger size in Europe and the United States as many seem to expect anytime soon, given every legacy carrier's continuing concern over RASM/RASK deterioration. But certainly, replacing 757s and domestic widebodies with A321s and 739ERs is to be expected.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:26 pm

ThirtyWest wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
what happens in the USA is only part of the picture,


I certainly agree with that. However, this --

mjoelnir wrote:
Fine sentiment, but absolutely past the realities.


-- isn't so true. There are several "realities" in question:

For North American legacy and low-cost carriers, and European legacy carriers, the mantra is capacity discipline -- particularly in anticipation of a possible if not likely economic downturn. The "reality" for these carriers, as they themselves state in every single quarterly earnings call or presentation, is that they're keen on managing capacity growth. The fact the A321neo offers a unit cost advantage over the A320neo is undeniable, but what happens to unit revenues when you add in all that capacity? Unless fares are totally inelastic and people are basically paying the same airfare despite a shift in the supply curve, unit revenues go down, and the value proposition of the larger aircraft diminishes. An extreme analogy, perhaps, but this is why you don't see SK operating OSL-ARN with A330s, or UA operating ORD-IND with 739ERs. If you put that much capacity in the market, I'm sure you could fill the seats, but unit revenues would be pennies. I have the sense that many enthusiasts don't see the nuance in terms of capacity management relative to demand. Not so much an issue in Asia and the Middle East, but it's certainly an issue in North America and Europe.


The reality you are implying does not fit the numbers. Up gouging is not only a reality for the A321, that gets an increasing percentage of the narrow body market. It is also in increased size of RJ with the smaller sizes getting eradicated, is also the move from A319 to A320 or 737-700 to 737-800, is also increasing the pax numbers in similar sized frames like Ryanair ordering the 737-8(200). The trend is clear and all over and some examples of airlines down gouging some orders does not eradicate the trend that sales in narrow body move on average to larger frames.
 
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Channex757
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:48 pm

One problem with upselling an order from A320 to A321 is where the aircraft is slated to be built. Toulouse doesn't make the A321 so if your ordered A320 is down to come from there, it would need a production slot reallocating from the other lines (principally Hamburg as that is the high volume A321 line). That might not always be possible or even desirable for Airbus to do.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Jul 21, 2016 5:48 pm

I think folding wingtips will be a given in any MoM or next A321 re-wing. It is a 1930s technology ready for prime time. The 777-9 will pave the path and then the market will accept the technology.

One poster noted taxiway issues. What airports that would see a MoM or A321+ couldn't accept a 767 or A330? We're not talking Global Hawk aspect ratio wings here! We're talking about keeping the economics of sharing the same gate as a 738/A320 but with the wingspan needed for 3+ hour missions.

keesje wrote:
- The A321 fleet will triple to around 4000 In 2023 - .
E.g. more then all 757, 767, 737 versions over the last 35 yrs combined. Boeings situation in this segment is far weaker than at first sight, apparently they underestimated. (http://www.boeingblogs.com/randy/archives/2010/08/sharks_and_jets.html) Boeing is at risk being wiped out in this segment. This explains recent Max-10 and MoM rumbling

Your images are worth a look. I recommend other posters review them.

It is worth noting that the A321 market will grow by 3X by 2023 as you note. I am of the opinion that Airbus will have to further increase A321 production with the A321LR. That airframe has an impressive flexibility. We already know the PW1135G will receive a PIP. The LEAP-1A will have to do so for competitiveness. This is a long term competition that will force PIPs that will further attract customers to the platform.


Now, for this range there is quite a bit of room for improvement. Wing loading is too high for best L/D. The A321s wing lacks underside laminar flow characteristics. The 3.5:1 GTF would weight more, but save much more than the added weight in fuel. This implies a NEO2 with re-wing.

But first... more A321 output. I think we'll see 60% of total A320 family production the A321. In particular after the C-series makes a few more sales and shows that the A319NEO and -7MAX just aren't competitive on the small side. The only question is if Airbus does this proactively or reacts to the CS500 (circa 2023 time frame, in my opinion).

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KarelXWB
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:40 am

With Qantas (Jetstar) and IndiGo converting A320neo orders into the the larger A321neo, and AirAsia adding 100 A321neo aircraft, it shows where the trend is going. More and more low cost carriers are opting for the larger A321 model.
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Amiga500
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:00 am

Simply put, if up to or over half the orders/builds are at one end of your model range (with that range being more than 2), then your model range is not centred where it needs to be.

In the days of old, the A320 (like the 737-800) was the big seller, with the two edges (A319/737-700 and A321/737-900) making up a significantly lower proportion of the sales volume.
 
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flee
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:33 am

Amiga500 wrote:
Simply put, if up to or over half the orders/builds are at one end of your model range (with that range being more than 2), then your model range is not centred where it needs to be.

In the days of old, the A320 (like the 737-800) was the big seller, with the two edges (A319/737-700 and A321/737-900) making up a significantly lower proportion of the sales volume.

Boeing will say that is the reason why a MoM aircraft will be needed.
 
Amiga500
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:02 pm

They may - but only because a stretch to them is unfeasible.

Without diving into the MOM again, the idea that a widebody can produce equivalent economics to a single aisle in a market stretching from, say, 160 to 260 seats is lunacy. Airbus can meet this demand (mostly) by working with their existing model range. Boeing cannot.
 
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:58 pm

KarelXWB wrote:
Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 1):Can a single aile get much longer and still function on short haul?

The 757-300 has proven that long turn-around times are not favorable.

Different era. These days both passengers and airlines will put up with anything if it comes at the right price.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:44 pm

Airbus is well set in regards to A321 production. XFW can produce A321 on all lines, BFM can do A321 and TSN could be switched over to to doing A321 too, only TLS, as the oldest production lines, is only able to do the A320. As it is XFW can do 24, and BFM and TSN 4 each (BFM next year) that gives a possible capacity of 32 A321 a month. The production at 48 frames a month, when BFM is up to speed, could move in the extreme to 1/3 A320 and 2/3 A321.
The lines in XFW, TSN and BFM are adjustable between frames without disturbing the speed of the line and can therefore do any mix of A318, 319, 320, 321. The new line planed in XFW, number four there, will increase the capacity to 40 A321 a month if needed, overall capacity will move to 56 frames a month. Both BMF and TSN could be adjusted to do up to 8 frames a month, capacity than topping out at 62 frames a month with 16 having to be A320.

Apart from mixing up sizes, all lines can run a mixed production of neo and ceo.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:59 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Airbus is well set in regards to A321 production. XFW can produce A321 on all lines, BFM can do A321 and TSN could be switched over to to doing A321 too, only TLS, as the oldest production lines, is only able to do the A320. As it is XFW can do 24, and BFM and TSN 4 each (BFM next year) that gives a possible capacity of 32 A321 a month. The production at 48 frames a month, when BFM is up to speed, could move in the extreme to 1/3 A320 and 2/3 A321.
The lines in XFW, TSN and BFM are adjustable between frames without disturbing the speed of the line and can therefore do any mix of A318, 319, 320, 321. The new line planed in XFW, number four there, will increase the capacity to 40 A321 a month if needed, overall capacity will move to 56 frames a month. Both BMF and TSN could be adjusted to do up to 8 frames a month, capacity than topping out at 62 frames a month with 16 having to be A320.

Apart from mixing up sizes, all lines can run a mixed production of neo and ceo.

Wow... Max out at 46 A321s per month. :)

So a limit of 74% A321. I believe in 7 or 8 years Airbus will hit that limit.

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kitplane01
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:59 pm

liftsifter wrote:
Quoting seahawk (Reply 17):I get the feeling there is a A322 growing.

That's pointless. Turnaround times would be ridiculous. A derated A332, or A337neo is a much better choice, offering carriers flexibility and more overhead bin space- not to mention the impression a wide-body makes vs a single-aisle.


An A321 weighs 206,000 lbs for 185 passengers = 1100 lbs per person
A A330 weighs 533,000 lbs for 300 passengers = 1700 lbs per person

Even a derated A330 weighs WAY too much per passenger, which leads to excessive fuel consumption. It's not even close.
 
WIederling
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:59 pm

kitplane01 wrote:
Even a derated A330 weighs WAY too much per passenger, which leads to excessive fuel consumption. It's not even close.


Airbus could work wonders with the A330 X-section and brand new wing.
The could also work wonders with a new wing on the A320 X-section.

Neither a blown u A321 nor a derated A330 appears to have much potential.

And they haven't said much beyond "we think the A321 is a good fit"
on closing the gulf between NB and WB craft.

IMU there is a good reason for that gulf. The question is does a single aisle or a double aisle
design provide for the better bridgehead.
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KarelXWB
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:43 pm

Lots of airlines operate the A330 on short sectors to increase aircraft utilization. Nothing new about that.
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Amiga500
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 9:21 am

kitplane01 wrote:
An A321 weighs 206,000 lbs for 185 passengers = 1100 lbs per person
A A330 weighs 533,000 lbs for 300 passengers = 1700 lbs per person

Even a derated A330 weighs WAY too much per passenger, which leads to excessive fuel consumption. It's not even close.


Very true. But do bear in mind:

An A300-600 weighs 378,500 lbs for 285 passengers = 1330 lbs per person.

An A310-300 weighs 361,500 lbs for 243 passengers = 1490 lbs per person (5150 nm range)
An A310-200 weighs 317,500 lbs for 237 passengers = 1340 lbs per person (3500 nm range)

The A330 is far too heavy, as it is far too long ranged. Some of that fat can be trimmed. But as I said earlier, I don't believe any widebody can trim enough weight to be competitive below say, 220 seats (equivalent comfort).
 
tvh
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:00 am

kitplane01 wrote:
liftsifter wrote:
Quoting seahawk (Reply 17):I get the feeling there is a A322 growing.

That's pointless. Turnaround times would be ridiculous. A derated A332, or A337neo is a much better choice, offering carriers flexibility and more overhead bin space- not to mention the impression a wide-body makes vs a single-aisle.


An A321 weighs 206,000 lbs for 185 passengers = 1100 lbs per person
A A330 weighs 533,000 lbs for 300 passengers = 1700 lbs per person

Even a derated A330 weighs WAY too much per passenger, which leads to excessive fuel consumption. It's not even close.


300 passengers in a A330 is a longrange layout. In a more compareable layout use 350 seats.

A A330 weighs 533,000 lbs for 350 passengers = 1523 lbs per person. which is a bit better and you still can take a lot more cargo. I know not much demand for that shortrange.
 
Noshow
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:06 am

Nothing against the A321 but the A330 has both way more cargo capacity and fuel capacity for far more range compared to the A321.
 
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AviatorW6
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Re: RE: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:34 am

KarelXWB wrote:
Quoting kurtverbose (Reply 1):Can a single aile get much longer and still function on short haul?

The 757-300 has proven that long turn-around times are not favorable.


Not favorable but viable on some routes, especially on long sectors (which are quite common in the U.S. for example). I would be surprised if we did not see a single aisle passenger aircraft longer than the A321 coming online in the coming 10-15 years.
 
Amiga500
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:04 am

I'd caution against using the 757-300 turnaround times as a concrete reason against high capacity single aisles.

If the main door were moved to as near the wing LE as possible, then you are sending ~1/3 of your passengers one direction and ~2/3 the other direction. Or for a 250 seater, equivalent to loading up an A319 via one aisle.

If 2 doors are used, then things improve further.
 
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flee
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 11:14 am

Turnaround times will not be a problem if both the front and rear doors are used for boarding. I believe that this happens at most airports in New Zealand - passengers board via two doors, even on A320s and B738s.
 
parapente
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 12:25 pm

I think the potential size of the A321NEO market is as much about downsizing from smaller wide bodies as it is from up gauging from smaller narrow bodies.It has been said that the new aircraft will have very similar operating economies as smaller wide bodies but with lower aquasition costs.The potential market could be very large indeed,particularly as there is not and will not be a competitor for a long while.For most airlines being/staying profitable is the only game in town -even if it means loosing a few customers by dropping a little capacity.We are seeing this at the other end of the market where 747's are being replaced by smaller but very efficient (read profitable) aircraft.
Airbus' main problem will be 'cranking ' them out fast enough to keep the backlog steady.
I don't believe there is any doubt that when the time comes for the 737 and 320 families to be replaced that the 321 size will be the 'middle' plane in any new range of 3 a/c family.But all that is way down the line.
 
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keesje
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 1:32 pm

parapente wrote:
I think the potential size of the A321NEO market is as much about downsizing from smaller wide bodies as it is from up gauging from smaller narrow bodies.


That will be the question. Maybe for some airlines 14 flights a week with A321LR is more profitable then 10 times a A330/787.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 6:47 pm

keesje wrote:
parapente wrote:
I think the potential size of the A321NEO market is as much about downsizing from smaller wide bodies as it is from up gauging from smaller narrow bodies.


That will be the question. Maybe for some airlines 14 flights a week with A321LR is more profitable then 10 times a A330/787.


A strange comparison, as 10 A330 would move more pax in a similar seat density. I would rather assume 10 A330 moving the same number of pax as 16 to 17 A321. WOW uses the A321 at 200 and the A330-300 at 332 pax for example, both one class with upgrade to seats with more legroom. When looking at a 240 pax 321, you have to compare it to for example a Cebu Pacific 436 pax frame, with other words packed, and than you need 18 A32, nearly double the number.

What are the reasons to not use the A321 on longish routes instead of an A330:

Freight, using a A321LR you move no freight only pax.
Slots, you have to have slots, both on the departure as well on the arrival airport, for 16 flights instead of 10.
Air congestion, a real trouble in Asia, also in Europe, 16 overflight slots instead of 10.
Not enough crew, there is already a shortage.

There are some reasons why Airbus is starting to sell A330-300R.

Some posters are thinking too much about capacity discipline, only possible if there is no real competition, and frequency. The frequency part will be hit very soon by crew shortages in most parts of the world.

I see the A321LR on long thin rather infrequent routes, were you have little freight and would not open the rout if you needed a bigger frame to do it.
I see the the normal A321 as a upgrade in capacity to the A320/737-8, moving more pax without using more crew, landing slots and overflight slots. On those shorter routes you can even move some freight, even in containers.
 
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keesje
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 7:47 pm

Still 14 flights a week on a A321 can be more profitable than 10 with a A330/787. Higher frequencies, better network revenue mix, connections etc.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 8:06 pm

keesje wrote:
Still 14 flights a week on a A321 can be more profitable than 10 with a A330/787. Higher frequencies, better network revenue mix, connections etc.


If you want to compare apples with bananas. Why 14 against 10? as arbitrary as can be. Just to show lower equipment and operating cost.

10 A330-300 3320 pax, 200 t freight, gives higher revenue possibility
14 A321-200 2800 pax, no freight, gives lower revenue possibility

Higher frequency, yes I give you that.
Connection? If there is a connection when you land, fine. If the first flight hits a bank and the second does not, you do not have better connection possibilities.
Better network revenue mix? Can you explain that? It seems to be nice to use big words without meanings.
 
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keesje
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:27 pm

Business related travel usually gives better margins. You might avoid filling the last rows with low fares. Business related prefers to arrive early and depart later on the day and values an additional flight option on a day. If you have additional frequency you can better connect to typical hub waves too. I know few hubs with just one wave.. Cargo is important but less so on typical 3000-4000NM flights, because those e.g. not the flights from Asia to EMEA/ Transpac. While given in on capacity 14 flights with a NB 180 seater is probably significant cheaper than 10 with an A330/787. Determining cargo revenue is that simlle anyway. The total cost of the operation, loadfactors, competition have to be factored in.

Why do you think AA is replacing 767s with 105 seat 4 class A321's? Tons of freight lost? Bad idea?
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rheinwaldner
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Nov 10, 2016 7:08 am

ThirtyWest wrote:
And that's because dumping a bunch of capacity into the market in the form of A321s over A320s, 739s over 738s, 789s over 788s, etc., will increase supply to a point that fares and RASM plummet.

IMO the A321 ramp up (today and even more in the future) mostly does not come at the cost of smaller narrowbodies but widebodies. So you are right: focus on RASM seems to be important. The thing is only, that RASM is one of the a key drivers pushing A321s (and LRs) to places where widebodies were used up until now.
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mjoelnir
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Re: A321 Output Will Be Further Increased

Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:17 am

keesje wrote:
Business related travel usually gives better margins. You might avoid filling the last rows with low fares. Business related prefers to arrive early and depart later on the day and values an additional flight option on a day. If you have additional frequency you can better connect to typical hub waves too. I know few hubs with just one wave.. Cargo is important but less so on typical 3000-4000NM flights, because those e.g. not the flights from Asia to EMEA/ Transpac. While given in on capacity 14 flights with a NB 180 seater is probably significant cheaper than 10 with an A330/787. Determining cargo revenue is that simlle anyway. The total cost of the operation, loadfactors, competition have to be factored in.

Why do you think AA is replacing 767s with 105 seat 4 class A321's? Tons of freight lost? Bad idea?


Because the 767 is a old tired frame with a bad CASM, even beaten by the 757 in that regard. The smallest new wide body that could replace her is either an A330 or a 787 a big step up.
A bigger narrow body than an A321 is new not available. And we are talking about short to medium haul in the USA with airlines obsessed with frequency and capacity control in an environment were real competition has disappeared in mergers.

In what way does that has something to do with running 14 flights, I assume a week, with A321LR over distances with flight times above 7 hours, why otherwise do you need the LR, where frequency is not the over reaching consideration, to replace 10 A330, to up the frequency and reduce the capacity? And there are markets were freight does matter. If you would be talking 14 flights a day, than talking about a frequency when you run 10 wide bodies a day would be abstract.

USA conditions do not apply all over the world, as nobody else has such a huge, from foreign competition protected, market.

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