G-CIVP
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Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 6:38 am

RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 7:49 pm

Quoting apfpilot (Reply 40):

If this was in isolation you'd be correct. However the concern (for me at least) with G4 is the pattern of issues and the way they have been handled, along with the person at the helm of the company and their past history. I have close friends who fly for G4 and I worry about their safety. I have asked my loved ones to avoid flying on them despite the fact that causes them financial penalties if they want to visit their grandchildren. Where there is smoke there is fire usually plays out especially in this industry of ours.

All airlines have issues with their aircraft and fly with a number of accepted deferred defects everyday. In the main, these defects will have been (risk) assessed with suitably qualified individuals, usually licenced engineers and independently signed off. If you have concerns with Allegaint, I would like to see the evidence detailed here.
 
KarlB737
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 8:03 pm

Quoting 11725Flyer (Thread starter):
Federal airline investigators have begun a review of Allegiant Air's operations two years before it was scheduled after several high-profile maintenance scares last summer.

As these concerns have been in the forum for a while I have begin to think of the medium markets that depend heavily or totally on air service from Allegiant. TOL and YNG to name a couple.

Courtesy: Toledo Blade

Area’s Most Popular Airline Faces Scrutiny

"With its pilots’ union and a mechanics’ group questioning the adequacy of its aircraft maintenance program, Toledo’s most popular airline is getting some extra scrutiny from the Federal Aviation Administration."

"the normal five-year interval has been shortened to three “to ensure that work the carrier is doing to address various internal issues has resulted in the desired improvements,” said Elizabeth Isham Cory, an FAA regional spokesman in Kansas City. “We expect to have the evaluation done by late June,” she added."

http://www.toledoblade.com/local/201...opular-airline-faces-scrutiny.html
 
jlbmedia
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:41 pm

When is the last time a U.S. airline was grounded without a fatal crash?
JLB54061
 
sunking737
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:45 pm

Not sure of anyone being aware of this but, G4 has been flying DOD charters today from MSP to VCV. 4 flights, 1 757, and 3 MD80's. DOD is a tough customer.
"Don't believe it unless its parked on the ramp, or printed in the schedule...SUBJECT TO CHANGE"

I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
MaxxFlyer
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:20 pm

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 41):
When its allegiant people on here jump on it. When another airline has this, its routine not an issue. LOL they are under a microscope on here. Again i think they need to be forced to change but they do not have planes falling out of the sky as people are saying on here.

When WN was fined for Mx issues, the were eviscerated on this site. It's not hate of G4, it's mistrust in their ability to put airplanes in the sky safely.
 
IPFreely
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:57 pm

Quoting MaxxFlyer (Reply 17):
I'm not seeing anyone discuss a crash.

Really? Take a look at some of these loons:

Quoting jetjeanes (Reply 25):

same ceo when at valujet only they are 10 times worse,, they are an accident that will eventually happen, Its just a matter of time.
Quoting KBUF (Reply 18):
Considering G4's CEO was formerly the CEO of ValuJet, I could certainly see it happening

Or these, from previous threads:



Not until there's a smoking crater and 150 people are dead.

I've been busily warning my friends against flying G4 for some time now.

Sadly, it takes a crash and bodies before anything changes. I am so tired of this behavior. You would think in the year 2016, lessons would be learned in preventing disasters because of safety.

Exactly. And is the FAA just going to wait until a G4 plane with 150 people aboard goes for a swim to take action?

I'm glad I survived my recent G4 trip but I don't see myself booking another one anytime too soon as long as I enjoy living.

Allegiant Engine Failure RTO 3/5 (by smw757 Mar 6 2016 in Civil Aviation)
Allegiant COO Resigns (by FATFlyer Jan 16 2016 in Civil Aviation)
What's Going On At Allegiant? (by ih8b6 Jul 24 2015 in Civil Aviation)
 
solarflyer22
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:24 am

Quoting MaxxFlyer (Reply 54):
When WN was fined for Mx issues, the were eviscerated on this site.

Yeah, people weren't happy either when I filled out a complaint on FAA's web site too. Frankly I don't care. Their online form even had a option to complain about maintenance. lol.
 
F9Animal
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 12:57 am

If the FAA finds something to ground G4, I would expect a shakeup, starting with the CEO stepping down. G4 has enough cash to satisfy any recommended fixes if there was a grounding. However, Allegiant would have to work extra hard to fix the tarnish left if it happened.

However, I am pretty sure G4 is scrambling to correct the problems, as they very well know it's no longer a free pass. As earlier reports stated, extra effort is being made to fix the problems.
I Am A Different Animal!!
 
B747forever
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:24 am

Quoting n471wn (Reply 2):

I certainly hope not as I am proudly flying them from OAK to Provo and back this weekend---love those MD-80'! Yes Allegiant will survive!!


Last summer I flew a roundtrip with G4. Now a year later they seem to be in a worse state when it comes to MX and general safety. Today, I would never get on another G4 flight until they get their act together.
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:53 am

Quoting 11725Flyer (Thread starter):

No. It generally takes at least one but probably two big smoking holes in the ground to get that to happen.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 9):
They have not had any really close calls, unacceptable YES, but i wouldn't not fly them.

uh.... yes they have had close calls.

Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 9):
. They need to clean up their act but their planes are not falling out of the sky.

I hope you don't work in aircraft maintenance

This attitude is exactly how people get killed. "oh well it didn't crash" guess what? it might the next time.

Quoting FWAERJ (Reply 12):
The only major Airbus incident in that timeframe was most likely caused by circumstances beyond any airline's control.

I'm curious how you know this? I haven't seen any blame placed on CFM for the issue.

Quoting Okie (Reply 14):

I suspect the driver on the MD-80's will be the inerting issue with fuel tanks.

and that DL/AA are parking theres.

Quoting KBUF (Reply 18):
Considering G4's CEO was formerly the CEO of ValuJet, I could certainly see it happening. Some people never learn!

never care. Why should he? He can kill people and still make millions, have a job and stay out of jail.
IMO this is an issue the FAA needs to fix. What sucks is if a mechanic makes a simple mistake our asses are grass. Management does stupid stuff and they are just fine.

Quoting ltbewr (Reply 21):

It seems to me that the FAA and other regulators of USA based airlines may not be doing their job as they really should. They may need to do more frequent and through inspections at airlines to seek potential problems before a loss. Sadly, like much of our government at all levels, budget cuts have meant not as much inspecting as perhaps should be done.

They aren't doing there job. This is why people like me have such a huge issue with outsourcing. The FAA doesn't have the staff or the budget to be doing inspections and safety audits of all the MROs in the US, much less the world.

Quoting OB1504 (Reply 22):

Historically, the FAA hasn't really cared until people have died.

and most of the time it take multiple times to really get something done.

Quoting n471wn (Reply 26):

You have no idea of what you are talking about as this was not an almost crash (which of course you knew) and you are not interested in anything but bashing G4

No, you are the one who doesn't know what they are talking about.

Quoting n471wn (Reply 27):
and for the hundredth time the Everglades accident was NOT the fault of Valujet

and for the hundredth time, you are completely and 100% wrong. It is the airlines job to control the vendors, audit the vendors and make sure they are doing things correctly. ValuJet was well known for not doing this correctly.

question, do you work for an airline? If so you really need to learn about FARs. It a little scary how little you know about them. (assuming you work for an airline)

Quoting jimbo737 (Reply 32):

Longtime industry insiders will recall Valujet suffered all kinds of seemingly "insignificant" issues in the months leading up to 592. It all boiled down to poor maintenance and training practices.

well the practices part is true.

but on that note ValuJet 597 (~ a year before 592) had a compressor disk fail and that was due to piss poor maintenance and record keeping from the vendor. I'm sure n471wn will argue that also wasn't J7's fault  
Quoting rbavfan (Reply 36):
Not true. The engine failed on go around and they came really close to hitting the ground trying to recover. Other pilots in AZ noted they should have been better trained for this kind of failure. That shows training needs tightened up. Also an engine failure on a newer A319 that does not have a history of that type of failure shows they are not doing good at engine upkeep. So if noting something that happened, was widely reported on in Phoenix. Including friends that work at the airport is bashing. Then I wonder, based on your accusing everyone here of bashing them, if you work for Allegiant.

exactly 100% correct here. Lets not forget firing a pilot because he ordered that emergency evac also. That just screams safety right there.  
Quoting slcdeltarumd11 (Reply 41):
Again i think they need to be forced to change but they do not have planes falling out of the sky as people are saying on here.

Who said that? As I said above, this industry doesn't work this way. I hope you aren't in airline management or maintenance.

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 47):

exactly this.

Quoting G-CIVP (Reply 50):
I would like to see the evidence detailed here.

an FAA investigation is plenty of evidence. They tend not to get off their asses unless they really have too.
 
OB1504
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:30 am

Quoting F9Animal (Reply 57):
However, Allegiant would have to work extra hard to fix the tarnish left if it happened.

Or they could just buy another charter carrier and adopt their identity, like ValuJet did when they killed 110 people.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:01 am

Quoting rbavfan (Reply 36):
Other pilots in AZ noted they should have been better trained for this kind of failure.

Another statement that seems completely untrue.
 
wjcandee
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:07 am

I second the motion to keep it real. There is so much made up stuff on here ("Dispatched to closed airport with razor-thin fuel margins..." when the truth is, "Dispatched to an airport that was closed to everything EXCEPT, according to the FAA, scheduled air carriers, and when the FAA screwed up and tried to force them to an alternate, which would have involved dipping into reserves, they refused, took the controller's dare to declare an emergency, and landed within minimums.")
 
PlanesNTrains
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:35 am

Quoting wjcandee (Reply 33):
It's a weird thing about how so many members want to appear knowledgeable by "predicting" stuff so they can be acknowledged to be correct,

Ain't it the truth. "I said it FIRST in X thread...." smh...

Quoting OA412 (Reply 44):
Agreed. The insinuation that anyone is hoping they'll crash and kill everyone on board is tasteless.

Tasteless? Sure. True? For some, there's elements of truth. Sure, most wouldn't wish for people to die. However, once it's done, it's done, and "I told you so!" would be gleefully announced by numerous members.

-Dave
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
G-CIVP
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:20 am

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 59):
an FAA investigation is plenty of evidence. They tend not to get off their asses unless they really have too.

Could you provide a link to the relevant report? If the FAA has investigated and not grounded the airline, then this suggests the FAA did not have significant concerns or their concerns have been remediated.
 
nws2002
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RE: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 04, 2016 10:44 am

Quoting sunking737 (Reply 53):
Not sure of anyone being aware of this but, G4 has been flying DOD charters today from MSP to VCV. 4 flights, 1 757, and 3 MD80's. DOD is a tough customer.

Yeah, a DOD audit is no joke. They put the FAA to shame.
 
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Southwest1137
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Fri Jun 17, 2016 4:07 pm

I think that allegiant will be able to survive. They run enough flights that carries enough people to survive.
 
robsaw
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:13 am

Southwest1137 wrote:
I think that allegiant will be able to survive. They run enough flights that carries enough people to survive.


I believe the concern with Allegiant is not whether they carry enough passengers to survive but whether they will continue to carry enough passengers that survive.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Sat Jun 18, 2016 4:07 pm

robsaw wrote:
I believe the concern with Allegiant is not whether they carry enough passengers to survive but whether they will continue to carry enough passengers that survive.


Totally inflammatory and uncalled for statement.

Every passenger Allegiant has carried in their entire history has survived. An accomplishment that most of the so-called "safe" airlines have not achieved.
 
freakyrat
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:10 am

The G4 A320 involved in the hydraulic incident at St. Pete has been fully reparied and has made dozens of flights since then all very safely. It was in my hometown twice this weekend.
 
n471wn
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 4:12 am

Sadly there are people on this forum who will always disparage airlines that are more successful than the carriers they work for or have worked for. G4 is very successful and this irritates them and they play the safety card every time and say incredibly stupid things like they advise their friends to not fly G4 and so forth. G4 does great without them and I saw the same kind of reckless statements back in the 1970's about WN from people who worked for TWA and Pan Am and others whose airlines are long gone
 
robsaw
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 4:39 am

IPFreely wrote:
robsaw wrote:
I believe the concern with Allegiant is not whether they carry enough passengers to survive but whether they will continue to carry enough passengers that survive.


Totally inflammatory and uncalled for statement.

Every passenger Allegiant has carried in their entire history has survived. An accomplishment that most of the so-called "safe" airlines have not achieved.


Well of course, every passenger (and every aircraft) of every airline survives until one doesn't (due to a safety related failure). In any case, my point was that the discussion topic of this thread is precisely about safety and not about passenger loads or profitability. If my comment was inflammatory then this entire thread including the OP is inflammatory as it starts with an implication that Allegiant is at risk of being grounded for safety failings that put passengers at risk. Discussion of that assertion IS the topic of this thread.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:06 am

robsaw wrote:
Well of course, every passenger of every airline survives until one doesn't


I hereforth dub thee...

Image
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:50 am

In another thread on this topic, I calculated Allegiant as having an incident rate ten times that of DL.

I will not set foot on their airplanes. For those of you apologists, what will it take for you to agree that it's unsafe? One crash? Two? Six?
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
n471wn
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 6:42 pm

We agree that you should not fly G4 DocLightning as your seats are taken by rational people who understand that G4 has never skinned a knee and for you to say they are unsafe is ludicrous
 
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enilria
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:08 pm

I think for G4, the good news about this audit by FAA is that if they emerge relatively unscathed, it will really reset the debate about whether all the safety attention they get is warranted.

Having said that, keep in mind that all airlines get periodic safety fines and I would expect one of some sort here because that is par for the course. UA was fined millions for flying a plane for months with a towel in the engine plugging up an oil leak, so the question is really where on the spectrum this audit will place them compared to the others. We'll know soon.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:18 pm

As an ex-G4 employee, I will have to say that they take safety really seriously. This isn't sarcasm either. That is why there are so many delays and/or cancellations. They would never let a plane leave the gate if there was even the SLIGHTEST chance that it wouldn't make it to its destination. Having said that, most of their issues comes from their MD80 aircraft. We did a company survey about what we think needed to be changed about G4 and the number 1 answer was aircraft, followed by customer service, both of which are being taken care of, slowly but surely. As everyone knows they are phasing out the MD80s, and replacing them with A319s and A320s. They are getting rid of their 757s sometime in the next 6-8 months. This is why they terminated their HNL service, affected mid-August.

So to answer the question, no, they wont be grounded, because they really are cautious about their aircraft. The issue is that the aircraft are old, and pretty much have been used to the max. They are slowing getting new-ish aircraft. So I actually wouldn't be surprised if they improved after the FAA goes through.
LAS is Life
 
freakyrat
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:57 pm

The issues they had at SBN this past winter were all on MD80 aircraft from a deicing issue on one and I believe had an engine problem on one. The deicing problem wasn't the fault of the plane. I believe they had issues de-icing the aircraft. That flight eventually departed. The flight with the engine problem was cancelled and flown the next day on an A320. That MD80 was pulled into a large hanger on the airport and the mechanics from IND fixed it and had it flying in a week or so and it was ferried back to SFB. N228NV the A320 Florida jet based in PIE that had the hydraulic problem is repaired and I got to see it in SBN this past weekend as it departed to PIE. It looks to be in great shape and is nice and shiney.
 
aviationjunky
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:22 pm

DocLightning wrote:
In another thread on this topic, I calculated Allegiant as having an incident rate ten times that of DL.

I will not set foot on their airplanes. For those of you apologists, what will it take for you to agree that it's unsafe? One crash? Two? Six?


If I'm not mistaken, G4 hasn't had any fatal accidents. Where as DL, with NW added, is looking at over 1000 deaths due to accidents. While G4 might abort take-offs and emergency land more often than DL, if you're going off in terms of danger, DL is the more dangerous of the two. At least G4 knows when to not take off, or knows when to land the plane in case of an emergency. DL has had many aborted takeoffs, and many emergency landings, its just that people like you aren't looking at DL through a microscope to see when their planes do anything out of the ordinary.
LAS is Life
 
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TVNWZ
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 9:44 pm

I think you also have to take into consideration the impact on the Teamster's actions involving the airline.
 
jdenn4
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 10:43 pm

Here is my take on the subject. Being a former employee of allegiant back before they had the massive expansion (I was there when they had the dc-9-21 N127NK and Two MD-87's (N948MA and N945MA) and then the transition to MD-80's and growth. When the first started and when we were in Fresno, safety was never compromised. After the move to vegas, and Gallagher and his former Valujet buddies came over they went with the same model, Buy old planes cheap and push them. Finally after a few years multiple emergencies and seeing truly scary thing i left. I can list neumerous issues but the basic management style was push the airplane, dont write it up. Ignore it. There were many things such as a captain who had numerous safety concerns reported from other crew members, including hotroding on a ferry flight up Christmas tree pass, landing at night with a full md-87 with no runway lights because the pilot controlled lighting was out and he didnt want to hold for 20 min until scheduled arrival time so the airport manager can manually turn the lights on, to showing up wreaking of crown royal and being told, "you need to call in sick" and he kept his job because of captain Als 101 ways to save fuel, it finally caught up with him when he decided to take an MD-80 through the grand finale of a Firework display (which was his grand finale after numerous community calls to the airport) The routine was push the plane push the plane. Mechanics were pressured to sign off planes which they didnt feel comfortable, then pilots who wanted to refuse an aircraft which they didnt feel safe were threatened with their job. Another issue is Fudging the numbers to Make it look like they were within weight limits which they werent, This particular practice led to an aircraft on 10 September10 being over MTOW and Nearly was their smoking hole in the ground With Allegiant Flight 4105 (N887GA) broke down one runway end light, markers that extend and knocked the lens out of another light before leaving a rut in the grass approximately 25ft long. The tire hti the bottom of the engine cowling had they rotated a second sooner they engine likely would have ingested the tire, and they may not have been able to climb clear of the trees had they rotated later the would have clipped a fence and trees, additionally the shredding tire damaged the flaps and damage in the wheel well.

This is just one example knowing people who are still there and many who have moved on, not much has changed internally. Like valujet it is keep all costs low, keep the company growing and looking good for shareholders. By time it has a smoking hole in the ground it will likely shortly be merged into the likes of frontier and go ala airtran. I to this day will not step foot on an allegiant plane
 
AABB777
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:23 pm

TVNWZ wrote:
I think you also have to take into consideration the impact on the Teamster's actions involving the airline.


Keep in mind the teamsters have hired a NY-based PR firm to ensure any and all G4 incidents get maximum media coverage. This is happening while they negotiate a contract with G4 management.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:10 am

aviationjunky wrote:

If I'm not mistaken, G4 hasn't had any fatal accidents. Where as DL, with NW added, is looking at over 1000 deaths due to accidents.


DL has had over 1000 deaths in almost a hundred years and probably two thousand total aircraft in its fleet over time.

That's such a warped comparison, I'll just leave it there.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 12:21 am

Count me among the cautious when it comes to G4. I'm hopeful they will straighten themselves out before anything serious happens. Having said that, my uncle lives near PIA and flies G4 2-3 times a year to see his kids in Florida. I've cautioned him about the ongoing incidents and he has decided to fly DL through ATL until I've given him the all-clear. Which I hope will be soon, but he knows what an av-geek I am and has taken my advice.
"True, I talk of dreams,
Which are the children of an idle brain." -Mercutio
 
IPFreely
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:15 am

aviationjunky wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, G4 hasn't had any fatal accidents. Where as DL, with NW added, is looking at over 1000 deaths due to accidents.


Good point. It makes doclightning's so-called "calculation" look invalid, irrelevant, and downright silly.
 
maxpower1954
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:21 am

Delta has had less than 300 passenger fatalities since it's founding in 1927. Northwest, which was considerably smaller than Delta for most its history was around 600. Neither carrier had a major accident for 20 years prior to the merger.
 
n471wn
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:31 am

OzarkD9S wrote:
Count me among the cautious when it comes to G4. I'm hopeful they will straighten themselves out before anything serious happens. Having said that, my uncle lives near PIA and flies G4 2-3 times a year to see his kids in Florida. I've cautioned him about the ongoing incidents and he has decided to fly DL through ATL until I've given him the all-clear. Which I hope will be soon, but he knows what an av-geek I am and has taken my advice.

Hopefully your uncle will see that all the flights you talked him out of flying on G4 will see how much money you cost him and that all the flights you talked him out of all landed safely without incident just like the hundreds of thousands of G4 flights that preceded them.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:42 am

IPFreely wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, G4 hasn't had any fatal accidents. Where as DL, with NW added, is looking at over 1000 deaths due to accidents.


Good point. It makes doclightning's so-called "calculation" look invalid, irrelevant, and downright silly.


Silly is counting safety only by body count.
-Doc Lightning-

"The sky calls to us. If we do not destroy ourselves, we will one day venture to the stars."
-Carl Sagan
 
maxpower1954
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:56 am

IPFreely wrote:
aviationjunky wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, G4 hasn't had any fatal accidents. Where as DL, with NW added, is looking at over 1000 deaths due to accidents.


Good point. It makes doclightning's so-called "calculation" look invalid, irrelevant, and downright silly.


Bringing up Delta and Northwest fatalities back to the 1920s is what seems downright silly to me. A little like examining Cunard/White Star Line's safety record back to the sinking of the Titanic. Delta/Northwest hasn't had a major accident since 1987 - long before Allegiant flew it's first flight.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:17 am

 
maxpower1954
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:14 am

As I said, since 1987 - this included NW 255 that year. While low fatality accidents, I should have remembered DL 1288 and DL 1141. DL 1086 had no fatalities. The NW ground collision I also left off because of the low fatality rate. And as noted many times on this website, accidents by contract carriers like Comair and ASE are separate operations and are not part of Delta or Northwest statistics.

I was a pilot for an airline that operated very much like Allegiant - Arrow Air back in the mid 1980s. The DC-8s were old, the maintenance was sketchy and the crews were pushed to the limit on legalities by management. It was completely different from World Airways which was a first class operation on every level. I stayed on for three years, checking out out as captain. But the marginal equipment and management attitude about safety saw me return to World as a DC-10 flight engineer - resigning my left seat DC-8 position at Arrow. Within a month the same aircraft I flew my last trip crashed on takeoff at Gander, killing everyone on board. I had dodged a bullet, because what happened to John Griffin and his crew would have happened to me. One side of the accident investigation board claimed an ice-contaminated wing; the other found evidence of a engine reversing after takeoff. Whatever the reason, we will never know - the cockpit voice recorder had failed due to Arrow's shoddy MX practices.

Not a fan boy, just an ordinary pilot with actual real world experience with a substandard operator. I'm within a few years of retirement from AA - many of the things I was expected to do at Arrow Air would get me fired from AA in a heartbeat.
 
bennett123
Posts: 9368
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:19 am

Perhaps the MX issues and good financial results are linked.

Especially given the relatively low utilisation of G4.
 
iamlucky13
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:26 pm

This is a bizarrely polarized discussion - from some of the posts one gets a sense that there is no middle ground in between Allegiant is every bit as good as their peers and Allegient is so dangerous that anybody who flies on them must be mentally handicapped (which somebody up-thread more or less said).

Supposing DocLightning is right, and Allegiant has 10 times as many notable incidents as other airlines. That doesn't sound unbelievable - skimming the AvHerald logs, they seem to come up almost as frequently as other US airlines, most of whom fly anywhere from 5 to 20 times as many annual passengers.

So suppose that likewise, the risk of a fatal accident on Allegiant is 10 times as high as their peers. How dangerous is that really?

Answer: 1/6th as dangerous as driving (10 x 0.05 fatalities per billion passenger-km, vs. 3.1 per billion passenger-km).

I'm not by any means dismissing the apparently high rate of incidents at Allegiant - the FAA didn't move up their audit by 2 years because their staff are underworked - the elevator control incident in particular could have turned out worse and raised quite a few eyebrows. If I understand right, it turned out to be a pretty serious maintenance issue, and in the aftermath, 3 other aircraft were found with to be missing secondary retention on control surface actuator fasteners. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the FAA determines some mandatory corrective actions are in order.
 
IPFreely
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:56 pm

iamlucky13 wrote:
So suppose that likewise, the risk of a fatal accident on Allegiant is 10 times as high as their peers. How dangerous is that really?


The good news is we don't have to suppose. We have actual data....many years worth.

If the risk of a fatal accident on G4 is 10x higher than DL/NW, and if DL/NW fly 10x as many passengers as G4, then G4 should kill 100x more passengers than DL/NW over the long haul. Assuming, of course, that doclightning's "calculations" are correct.

According to the actual data, DL/NW have killed 321 people since 1987. So if doclightning's calculations are correct, G4 should have killed 32,100 people in that time frame. Since the actual number is 0, not 32,100, it is clear that doclightning's calculation is completely wrong.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:27 am

IPFreely wrote:
If the risk of a fatal accident on G4 is 10x higher than DL/NW, and if DL/NW fly 10x as many passengers as G4, then G4 should kill 100x more passengers than DL/NW over the long haul. Assuming, of course, that doclightning's "calculations" are correct.


Your math is going the wrong way. If G4 is 10x more dangerous, but only flies 1/10 as many passengers, then you'd expect the same number of fatalities, not 100x more.

But fatalities are a horrible way to measure airline safety, because the sample size of fatal accidents is so small, and the random noise in fatality rates dwarfs the signal. It's better to focus on all incidents attributable to pilot or MX errors. And if you do that, it's clear beyond question that flying G4 carries more risk than flying the mainline fleets of the majors.

The risk is still low in the context of earlier aviation history or Third World ops, but it's high enough compared with the majors that I wouldn't personally choose to fly G4.
 
robsaw
Posts: 439
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Wed Jun 22, 2016 5:41 am

IPFreely wrote:
robsaw wrote:
Well of course, every passenger of every airline survives until one doesn't


I hereforth dub thee...

Image


Two points:
- sarcasm/satire is often missed by those that should actually learn the most from it.
- referencing a current record of non-fatal aircraft incidents is not the primary indicator of an effective maintenance organization and safety management system.
 
iamlucky13
Posts: 1151
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Re: Will Allegiant Be Grounded?

Thu Jun 23, 2016 2:04 am

IPFreely wrote:
iamlucky13 wrote:
So suppose that likewise, the risk of a fatal accident on Allegiant is 10 times as high as their peers. How dangerous is that really?


The good news is we don't have to suppose. We have actual data....many years worth.

If the risk of a fatal accident on G4 is 10x higher than DL/NW, and if DL/NW fly 10x as many passengers as G4, then G4 should kill 100x more passengers than DL/NW over the long haul. Assuming, of course, that doclightning's "calculations" are correct.

According to the actual data, DL/NW have killed 321 people since 1987. So if doclightning's calculations are correct, G4 should have killed 32,100 people in that time frame. Since the actual number is 0, not 32,100, it is clear that doclightning's calculation is completely wrong.


You multiplied when you should have divided, in addition to counting 10 years before Allegiant existed.

And Doc's calculation wasn't crashes. It was the lesser category of incidents. As I suggested, you can go to the Aviation Herald and see that Allegiant comes up quite regularly despite being far smaller than most of their peers.

Most importantly, you and others are conflating what other airlines did wrong to cause crashes in the past with what they're doing wrong now.

In the theme of the "captain obvious" comment that "every passenger of an airline survives until one doesn't," I remember frequent commentary when I was growing up about how the Concorde had the best safety record of any passenger aircraft. And then suddenly, it had the worst safety record of any passenger aircraft, with 8% of planes in service having been involved in deadly crashes.

In the aftermath, it came out that there had been numerous prior incidents of serious damage caused by blowouts, including fuel tank punctures, hydraulic system damage, and engine damage. But none had ever crashed, so the problems were never meaningfully addressed, and eventually the problems did cause a crash. This kind of "normalization of deviance" was also highlighted as a factor leading to the space shuttle Challenger disaster - risks were not being addressed because no serious harm had previously happened.

So yes, Delta has had many more crashes in the past than Allegiant, but to make another captain obvious statement, a past airplane crash can't kill a future passenger. The real question is who is currently doing a better job of preventing a future crash? That's not an easy question, and the FAA is in a better position to answer it than you or I, nor is any airline absolutely perfect in this regards, but if Allegiant is actually having more reliability issues and occasionally turns up planes with flight control surfaces not properly attached to their actuators, it tends to suggest they're doing a worse job.

As I pointed out before, it seems that even on Allegiant you're pretty safe compared to other common activities like driving. I can't make a strong argument for avoiding them based on safety alone (although I also don't hear much flattering about their comfort, timeliness, or service). If some people want to do so, that's their choice, and incidents like the runaway elevator merit stern criticism, but also please don't exaggerate the risk.

That doesn't mean they don't have to make changes. If the FAA finds they are deviating from the safety standards, the lack of past crashes doesn't justify them.

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