How many? 77Ws start retirement soon but A380s replace 77Ws on nearly every route they are launched on. 77Xs come in 2020. It won't be many. They only have 35 left on order and the vast majority of that will be growth not replacement.
This is not a complete dismissal of your point though. I do think up until ~2022 EK
could very well replace A380s with A380s but just not long term. Airbus will have to pony up Billions to make that happen.
|Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 191):|
It's not getting new engines, but Airbus are and have been improving it.
Of course they have but its not the same scale as the other aircraft mentioned. No one is going to replace an entire fleet of ~80 A380s with existing A380ceos that are 2-4% better than the ones they have. The other programs I mentioned are offering ~14% improvements on economy plus range and systems improvements.
|Quoting MrHMSH (Reply 191):|
You'd need a LOT of A350s and 787s to replace the seat capacity, assuming they meet the payload/range requirements (which arguably they don't), and EK can't just up frequencies to replace the lost capacity everywhere they go. Even if the restrictions of DXB aren't present, they're not going to up sticks and replace all the A380s with A350s and 787s, and even 779s may struggle. And there's also the problem of availability: getting 150-200 A350s or 787s? You'll be waiting a long while. Transitioning crew, maintenance and pilots to a different type is also a huge challenge.
A challenge sure but when the aircraft are smaller and more economical every time you do it your airline will make more money so why would a smart airline suddenly become stupid? Its pretty darn clear that EY
don't share the A380 love affair and their airports are growing and they will begin to eat EK
's lunch with their 77Xs/A350s/787s they have on order if EK
doesn't adopt the most economical business model. In the near term sure this can continue but in the 2020s? No way, not without a significant A380 improvement.
|Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 192):|
Because Mr Clark himself said so? Seems pretty clear to me.
And how long did he say he will do that for? I totally accept up until early 2020s (similar to the 77W) but this A380 program has a hard time reaching that timeframe with its dearth of orders with just EK
orders and has no hope of even EK
after that without significant improvements.
|Quoting scbriml (Reply 193):|
The only plane that can replace an A380 at Emirates is another A380.
With all due respect this one of the dumbest sentences uttered in this forum. Everything is replaceable. I agree that LHR
will probably have essentially 100% EK
A380s for the next 15 years. But with 140 on hand/order that won't be hard for them to do.
I don't get this tired mentality of everything that exists now will always exist. Its so short sighted given all the change we have seen.
|Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 194):|
It's difficult to have a chat when people keep running behind the facts. For example, some people keep saying the A380 needs to be produced at 30 units per year to remain break-even, even when Airbus said the break-even point has been lowered.
Alright, I was planning on getting back to your point on this Karel, I wasn't ignoring it. You absolutely have a point. Mine was just that they just established breakeven last year at the stated goal of 30; even though they still accomplished it without delivering that many. The point is that the 'low 20s' unit production breakeven is a stated goal of there's. Its not a sure thing that we can assume. They are working on that. It certainly is not happening this year.
And again this is not profit....this is a lack of a loss. Not exactly the gold ring on accomplishments and not its salvation. Hard to invest more billions in a program when you have to say to your board 'at least we aren't losing money on it?'
|Quoting KarelXWB (Reply 168):|
Who buys an 20-year old A330? Airlines keep buying older planes because the OEM keeps investing into the products. There are ongoing improvements.
The level of A330 investment in its improvements is not typical it is extraordinary short of a new model. It is not representative of what has happened to the A380.
When cheaper, more flexible aircraft become available, yes, every A380 order should be questioned. It has never been sustainable to offer a less efficient, larger, more expensive aircraft and I am not sure why we have to assume this is any different now.