|Quoting Gemuser (Reply 23):|
You could be right BUT the gap between the B789 and A380 is no bigger than the gap between the B744 & B763 so I don't see the gap that as a reason to assume a third type is needed. There could be reasons to close the gap, but we don't know what they are or if they even exist for QF.
I'm not arguing to be negative, I'm arguing to learn. Just throwing that out there by the way, not trying to say you're being negative, I just don't want you to get the wrong idea from what I'm saying.
That said; the A330 came into that 767 and 747 gap. Also, the 767 was used to Oz t-con and regional routes, something we are starting to see the A330 move into on the high end of the demand spectrum, and JQ
for the low end. Eventually QF
*can* use the 789 in the same regard as the A330 on regional and medium haul, and even long haul to utilize the plane better, but I have a feeling they will use it for long haul and even ULH if it can work in the later regard. The 78J would be better for the regional routes the A330 is on, but the capacity would be too great to be an effective replacement.
Any way, going to the topic of the 789 and A380 gap, the A350 would be a great fit, especially if they go for the LR
. That would allow them to effectively reach the eastern US (ORD
, and MIA
come to my mind in the order of most to least likely), and establish new routes where the A380 is too big and the 789 is too small, especially in cargo. I keep saying A350 instead of 777 because it will be easier for QF
to acquire and integrate to their fleet. I can see new routes such as JNB
flying an ETOPS compliant route, maybe CPT
; and LHR
, and CDG
from the Australian continent be it from PER
; well as adding frequencies from BNE
, and perhaps even PER
to the US.
For simplicity's sake, lets say QF
takes 4 of their 8 outstanding A380s. With all of the improvements Airbus has made to the 380, those planes have to be able to make at least LHR
is 8824mi, and PER
is 9009mi), then there's also FRA
, both about the same length as DXB
. I don't always believe in the notion of "if you build it, they will come" but if executed correctly, QF
can make an effective European scissors hub in PER
to link up to the rest of the country, reducing the need for EK
, but can still utilize EK
for secondary and tertiary European cities as well as Asia minor and Africa. If that doesn't work out, they can just retire their oldest 380s and keep that fleet the same, then convert the remaining outstanding 380s to 350s, and even order more if they need. A380s for trunk routes, A350s for thick longhaul, and 789s for medium and ULH. That doesn't seem like a bad combo to me.