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DIJKKIJK
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Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:34 am

Hi all,

If the UK decides to exit the EU later in june, what impact would it have on Airbus? The UK is an important supplier of components to Airbus (A380 wings, RR Engines etc). While one can understand that Brexit would not mean the end of business ties between UK and the EU, it may well create trade barriers in the form of taxes and levies. How would these affect the sourcing of components by Airbus? Would Airbus look more at US/Chinese, or even Russian suppliers in the future to cut costs?

Discuss.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
 
sierra3tango
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:05 am

IMHO the impact on Airbus would be very limited. The British aviation industry also sells components to Boeing and
Bombadier without too much problem, or so it would seem.

The currency risk GBP/EUR/USD is already there. Very much doubt that the EU would impose tariffs that would effectively
disadvantage its own internal industry on the world stage.

Anyway many of the 'imports' of engines / sub assemblies are only 'temporary' imports for assembly which are eventually re exported
to countries outside the EU, so no change there. For planes that are delivered inside the EU - well any duty would
drive up the cost of Airbus aircraft to EU operators, not a good idea.

If 'launch aid' is still permitted then its purely a matter as to whether the British (Brexit) Government wants to cough up
funding or not; which is a quasi commercial judgement.

Long term Airbus could relocate / transfer sub assembly manufacture but for engines the call would be with RR
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:25 am

If anything, the ensuing devaluation of the Pound would make buying parts and structures in the UK even more advantageous for Airbus, provided the EU doesn't retaliate with silly import taxes.
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
bennett123
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 11:48 am

IMO, it depends on the extent to which a post Brexit govt wants to play hardball.

Given Cameron's commitment to staying in, he will under pressure.

Gove has said he will not stand, but a govt led by Boris within a year is quite feasible.

Once the UK starts making it's move, the EU will clearly follow.
 
rutankrd
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:17 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 3):
Gove has said he will not stand, but a govt led by Boris within a year is quite feasible.

Although a political comment Bojo has rather small chance of becoming Tory leader let alone PM in the autumn.

Just research the Conservative leadership elections - Popularists never win its always someone more acceptable to the 1922 committee

Gove might say he won't run - Don't believe that in a minute !
 
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Aesma
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 1:50 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 3):
Once the UK starts making it's move, the EU will clearly follow.

Follow what ?

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Thread starter):
Would Airbus look more at US/Chinese, or even Russian suppliers in the future to cut costs?

There are 27 other countries in the EU, no need to go to Russia.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
bennett123
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 2:07 pm

For example, there has been talk of the UK moving to a points based immigration system for EU residents coming to the UK.

If so, then EU countries are likely to adopt a points based system for UK citizens going to EU countries.
 
frmrCapCadet
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 2:54 pm

There will be some difficulties and they will not be trivial. The biggest problem is likely the general deleterious effects between Great Britain and Europe as the complicated political and economics work out.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
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Aesma
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:18 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 6):
If so, then EU countries are likely to adopt a points based system for UK citizens going to EU countries.

EU countries already have systems for immigration from outside the EU, each country has its own system. In France it's an extremely complicated system with tons of bureaucracy, it will clearly discourage UK citizens from coming.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:45 pm

It depends on if the YK wishes to remain part of the single market (like Norway is)

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 6):
For example, there has been talk of the UK moving to a points based immigration system for EU residents coming to the UK.

Well if they do that they will be not be part of the single market as free movement is a deal braker for the single market.

Brexit, the vote and months of BS that go along with it is a completly pointless excersize. Anybody who thinks that the UK can miraculously free itself from Europe and EU regulations is delusional.
BV
 
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Asturias
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:13 pm

I doubt Brexit would change anything very much for Airbus, worst case scenario for Airbus is that they'd have to move the UK branch to the mainland.
Tonight we fly
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:23 pm

Quoting bennett123 (Reply 3):
, but a govt led by Boris within a year is quite feasible.

Ah, yes. The much awaited, Donald Trump - Boris Johnson transatlantic duopoly. What a charming thought. At least they'd get along splendidly.
     

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 9):
Anybody who thinks that the UK can miraculously free itself from Europe and EU regulations is delusional.

Well, it's called demagoguery. Quite popular these days as people have forgotten how to think, it seems.
 
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
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speedbored
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 4:52 pm

I don't think anyone needs to worry about anything changing much anytime soon.

Even if we do vote to leave, that will just make a whole load of lawyers, accountants, consultants, advisors, civil servants, bureaucrats, politicians, etc. jump on the gravy train of "exit negotiations", and ensure that those negotiations stretch out over at least 5-10 years while they all enrich themselves at hugely inflated daily rates.

Then there's also the Scotland issue which will further delay things while the SNP insist on a new Scottish independence referendum, and try to negotiate to remain in (or, more likely, join) the EU. (Still cannot get my head around how they can claim to want independence and want to remain in the EU, but politicians seem to have very different thought processes from the rest of us  ).

Then, knowing how us Brits do things when it comes to politics, we'll probably elect a new government who wanted to stay in Europe and they will agree to an exit strategy of: being allowed to remain in the single market in return for continuing to pay Brussels just as much as we do now, allowing full freedom of movement, keeping the Human Rights Act, and submitting to the jurisdiction of the European courts. So nothing will change except that we'll no longer have a say in any European matters (not that we really do now anyway).
 
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thekorean
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:41 pm

Quoting Francoflier (Reply 11):

Boris Johnson isn't the head of BNP, relax.
 
Armodeen
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 6:30 pm

Quoting speedbored (Reply 12):

Exactly, well put.
 
DIJKKIJK
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 7:56 pm

Quoting Aesma (Reply 5):
There are 27 other countries in the EU, no need to go to Russia.

No offence meant to anyone but I seriously doubt the Bulgarias, Romanias, Greeces,Portugals, Lithuanias, Polands and Latvias of the World have the engineering prowess to be able to replace the UK as an aircraft part supplier.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):
In France it's an extremely complicated system with tons of bureaucracy, it will clearly discourage UK citizens from coming.

It doesn't seem to be discouraging the hordes of Americans, Canadians and Chinese settling down in my part of France at least.

And France's immigration rules for non-EU nationals aren't as complicated as those of say, the UK. I can vouch for that, having been a non-EU national who has been living in France for a decade.
Never argue with idiots. They will bring you down to their level, and beat you with experience.
 
rnj13198
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:07 pm

Not forgetting either, the UK has the second largest aerospace industry in the world (surprisingly) with an incredibly large number of aero grads (vast majority of universities offer it, especially those with any sort of engineering department). Airbus certainly could find the skilled labour in the EU post Brexit but it would mean dismantling everything in Broughton and Bristol which would be very expensive both financially and in terms of experience.
 
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Aesma
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 8:26 pm

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 15):
It doesn't seem to be discouraging the hordes of Americans, Canadians and Chinese settling down in my part of France at least.

And France's immigration rules for non-EU nationals aren't as complicated as those of say, the UK. I can vouch for that, having been a non-EU national who has been living in France for a decade.

It's easier if you've got a job offer.

Quoting DIJKKIJK (Reply 15):
No offence meant to anyone but I seriously doubt the Bulgarias, Romanias, Greeces,Portugals, Lithuanias, Polands and Latvias of the World have the engineering prowess to be able to replace the UK as an aircraft part supplier.

Not overnight, no, but Airbus is a company with long term prospects.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 
AirbusA6
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:12 pm

I imagine that long term, and certainly with future projects, Airbus might be tempted to move more production work into its EU factories, but things like the design work would be harder to move; setting up a wing design facility from virtually scratch in Germany or France would be massively expensive and risky.

Besides, if Airbus is happy to set up production lines in the US and China, then clearly they're comfortable with non EU production!
it's the bus to stansted (now renamed National Express a6 to ruin my username)
 
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GlenP
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sat Jun 04, 2016 9:22 pm

Brexit supporters are already talking of making up the shortfall in Government income that would arise from any economic slow down, which just about every major financial institution, economic think tank & expert is predicting would arise from the UK leaving the EU by imposing tariffs, (They've promised to spend the, non-existent, £350 million per week they claim is sent to the EU on everything from the NHS and housing to removing taxes on energy & the fact that they both won't have that money nor would it have covered their promises, even if it did exist, means any such tariffs would have to be pretty swinging.

It's already apparent that they aren't going to be able to dictate trade deals to the rest of Europe and the world, so a likely result would be a tit-for-tat tariff war with the EU. Somehow I believe that will make things more than a little bit less palatable for Airbus, when they have to purchase their wings with duty to pay.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
Grummancat
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:39 am

But Brexit isn't going to happen. This is all like that thread speculating about what BA is gonna do with the livery if Scotland leaves. Not happening though sometimes I wish it would.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 2:40 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 12):
jump on the gravy train of "exit negotiations", and ensure that those negotiations stretch out over at least 5-10 years while they all enrich themselves at hugely inflated daily rates.

You have obviously never read the relevant EU articles, the EU state exits the EU within 2 years (subject to votes in the European parliament) whether negotIations for access to EU markets are concluded or not. 2 years is both the blink of an eye and an untenably long time for business, they will have to make a decision on what they do with long term projects more or less instantly they cannot afford to sit tight and hope things work out.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 12):
Then there's also the Scotland issue which will further delay things while the SNP insist on a new Scottish independence referendum, and try to negotiate to remain in (or, more likely, join) the EU. (Still cannot get my head around how they can claim to want independence and want to remain in the EU, but politicians seem to have very different thought processes from the rest of us ).

Wow, this paragraph is just fantasy none of this is remotely possible, Scotland leaves with UK, it would then have to divorce UK in referendum and start accession talks with the EU.

Quoting Armodeen (Reply 14):

Exactly, well put.

Well put? Lol, he is wrong on every substantive point. I'm guessing you are both Brexiters, you are voting for a fantasy. I would suggest you read the relevent EU regulations on joining and leaving the EU.

Also, fun fact :- UK needs to 'win' 3 EU votes before it can leave, so what ever gets voted on 23rd June the EU actually has the final say.
BV
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 5:20 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Also, fun fact :- UK needs to 'win' 3 EU votes before it can leave, so what ever gets voted on 23rd June the EU actually has the final say.

Ok, thats not actually true, bit of an early morning posts there.. UK can leave but any withdrawal agreement between the UK and the EU needs (at least) 3 seperate votes; UK can vote to Brexit but EU does not have to negotiate any withdrawal agreement, it needs the permission of the EU parliament (vote 2) after the council of Europe decides it wants to negotiate a withdrawal agreement (vote 1) and any agreement made in the council of Europe needs EU parliament agreement (vote 3) to come into force, if that does not happen within 2 years UK is simply out of the EU unless the council of Europe unanimously votes to extend this period. The UK CANNOT take part in any of the above discussions or votes.

Parts of the withdrawal agreement may also have to be voted on and unanimously agreed by national parliaments, its a typically European clusterf**k I can't see how in practicallity it actually gets done at all and if it does get done how it gets done without the UK being screwed as they are not at the negotiating table.

UK does not get a vote on the withdrawal treaty, its not even take it or leave it. UK is comitted to withdrawal from Brexit vote or, more likely, from when Dave informs EU of HMG's intention.

Its a divorce negotiated by your ex partners lawyers, no rational person would enter into that.

http://openeurope.org.uk/today/blog/...ving-the-eu-explaining-article-50/

[Edited 2016-06-04 22:46:28]
BV
 
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speedbored
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:11 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Lol, he is wrong on every substantive point.

Well we will have to wait and see who is right. You obviously have an awful lot more faith in politicians than I do.

Having lived and worked in the UK for most of my 50+ years, I have a very good understanding of how things actually work out in practice. The reality is that our political masters rarely actually do what they say they will do, and they only ever see rules and regulations as guidelines, and feel free to break them whenever it suits their purposes.

Even if we technically/legally "leave" at the 2-year point, I can't see very much actually changing until all of the discussions are completed, which I am pretty certain will take a lot longer than 2 years. There will almost certainly be some sort of interim agreement to "carry on as before".

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
I'm guessing you are both Brexiters

You guess wrong then.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
I would suggest you read the relevent EU regulations on joining and leaving the EU.

I'm fully aware of them, thanks. As I said, I do not expect them to actually be followed, as it would not suit either the EU or the UK to do so.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 21):
Wow, this paragraph is just fantasy none of this is remotely possible, Scotland leaves with UK, it would then have to divorce UK in referendum and start accession talks with the EU.

I'm fully aware of the facts of the matter, which is why I said "or, more likely, join", but you might want to take a look at what the SNP are saying on the subject - they are adamant that they would not have to reapply but could simply choose to stay.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 22):
I can't see how in practicallity it actually gets done at all and if it does get done how it gets done without the UK being screwed as they are not at the negotiating table

You seem to be assuming that it is only the EU who can do the "screwing".

Look at the UK balance of trade with the EU - any attempt to "screw" the UK would simply be shooting themselves in the foot. Or do you expect that we will just take it lying down and not even consider imposing equal measures on trade going the other way?

Our politicians may be many things but not all of them are stupid.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:37 am

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
I'm fully aware of the facts of the matter, which is why I said "or, more likely, join", but you might want to take a look at what the SNP are saying on the subject - they are adamant that they would not have to reapply but could simply choose to stay

Ha! They are adament!! The commision and individual EU countries were just as adament brfore the referendum and they have article 49 on their side which is actuall law.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
Look at the UK balance of trade with the EU - any attempt to "screw" the UK would simply be shooting themselves in the foot. Or do you expect that we will just take it lying down and not even consider imposing equal measures on trade going the other way?

90% of EU trade goes to Europe yet 10% of EU trade comes to UK, who do you think has the stronger hand

Also you don't take into account that the UK leaving the EU tips the ballance to protectionism. EU would welcome the lack of competition form UK and carry on regardless.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
I'm fully aware of them, thanks. As I said, I do not expect them to actually be followed, as it would not suit either the EU or the UK to do so.

No, your post suggests you didn't have a clue about them.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 23):
Even if we technically/legally "leave" at the 2-year point, I can't see very much actually changing until all of the discussions are completed, which I am pretty certain will take a lot longer than 2 years. There will almost certainly be some sort of interim agreement to "carry on as before".

You have no way of knowing that, nobody does. Assuming that the law will not be followed is a dangerous path to take.
BV
 
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GlenP
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:01 am

Sorry BoeingVista, but Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the SNP, has already stated that, if there is a vote for leaving the EU, there will definitely be a push for a new Scottish independence referendum. Regardless of the outcome, or even whether it takes place, it will delay any negotiations regarding trade agreements for the rest of the UK.

Yes, I you are correct that, as was pointed out at the time of the last independence referendum, a newly independent Scotland would have to negotiate it's own entry back into the EU, but that didn't put the SNP off having remaining in the EU as one of the pillars of their independence campaign & all the evidence points to the people of Scotland, Wales & N.I. being vastly n favour of remaining in the EU.
Ubique Quo Fas et Gloria Ducunt
 
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speedbored
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:34 am

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 24):
Ha! They are adament!! The commision and individual EU countries were just as adament brfore the referendum and they have article 49 on their side which is actuall law.

Yes, and I agree with you. But ask an SNP politician and they will not, at least not in public.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 24):
90% of EU trade goes to Europe yet 10% of EU trade comes to UK, who do you think has the stronger hand

Not sure I agree with your numbers but it's not about percentages, it's about value. Do you really think that the EU economy is currently strong enough to take such a massive hit in trade, while also having to re-absorb the millions of their citizens that are currently employed in the UK? Very many people don't.

Some sort of compromise will be worked out - the risk of not doing so is far too great for far too many countries, even if none of them cares what happens to the UK.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 24):
No, your post suggests you didn't have a clue about them.

No, my post suggests that I also have an understanding of how things actually work in reality.

Quoting BoeingVista (Reply 24):
You have no way of knowing that, nobody does. Assuming that the law will not be followed is a dangerous path to take.

Just as you have no way of knowing otherwise. It's just my opinion (which is why I said "I can't see") based on experience of how things have worked over all of the years since the UK has been in the EU.
 
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BoeingVista
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RE: Impact Of A Possible Brexit On Airbus

Sun Jun 05, 2016 11:08 am

Quoting GlenP (Reply 25):
Sorry BoeingVista, but Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the SNP, has already stated that, if there is a vote for leaving the EU, there will definitely be a push for a new Scottish independence referendum.

Yup, as there should be.. There may even be a push in NI to suceed, it will restart the war but there you go.

Quoting GlenP (Reply 25):
Regardless of the outcome, or even whether it takes place, it will delay any negotiations regarding trade agreements for the rest of the UK.

Nope, absolutely not. Its irrelevant to the issue of Brexit.

Quoting GlenP (Reply 25):
Yes, I you are correct that, as was pointed out at the time of the last independence referendum, a newly independent Scotland would have to negotiate it's own entry back into the EU

As they should, and eventually they are bound to be allowed back in but it will take years.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 26):
while also having to re-absorb the millions of their citizens that are currently employed in the UK? Very many people don't.

Haang on, are you suggesting mass deportations will be the result of a Brexit vote? if that happens

a) forget about any trade deal with Europe
b) the boats will be going to Europe full of Europeans and returning full of deported Brits.

Quoting speedbored (Reply 26):

Some sort of compromise will be worked out - the risk of not doing so is far too great for far too many countries, even if none of them cares what happens to the UK.

Look, I think we both agree that nobody knows for sure what will eventuate here, probably something inbetween both of our arguments, BUT I personally think life will be made hard for the UK "to encourage the others" to remain.
BV

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