So Seattle is here what is or are some of the next routes? Any speculation, anything firm?
I think it's actually mostly speculation, because Amazon has been making changes to the planned network even very recently. So even those who know don't really know for sure.
We know from Whiplash that there's a new station, SKF, in South Texas, starting on May 1, and I'm assuming that in addition to the Atlas route ONT-SKF-CVG-ONT, there will be an SKF-CVG-SKF as well, assuming that more doesn't change between now and 5/1. We also know that SEA-ABE-SEA isn't going to continue on Atlas after 5/1; I think as a newer route it will likely go to a 767-200 (for now) on 5/1.
ABX is currently doing ONT-ILN-ONT, TPA-ILN-TPA, PHX-ABE-TPA-PHX, SCK-DFW-ILN-SCK and ONT-RFD-CLT-ONT.
We should know soon whether any of those multi-stop routes will change (and I think they will), and what other routes ABX will have. We know that the TPA turn is going to go to an Atlas 767-300, so that goes away. The ONT turn should also be going to a 767-300. So that frees up two ABX aircraft, and there are of course additional spare 767-200s available at ABX if Amazon wants to put them to work. (Remember that we're now only at 11 767-200s out of the 12 contracted-for.) The existing ABX multi-stop routes may change; in the end, though, I think ABX will have a couple of multi-stop routes that involve RFD, and at least one multi-stop route through each of TPA and PHX. So they should be operating at least three 767-200 aircraft for Amazon after May 1 and most likely will continue to operate 5. I think something is going to have to happen to give Amazon a change of heart -- not so much about the strike but rather about the pilots subsequently soliciting and gaining massive media coverage of their claim that Amazon packages might not arrive on time for Christmas -- if the number is to go above 5.
It looks like N347AZ is going to be back to the US soon enough to spend two weeks in paint and still be ready for service by May 1, although it will all depend upon how fast the gremlins can be swatted post-conversion. I don't think that a sixth ATI 767-300 route will be planned for it, however. With the Atlas and ATI 767-300s fully-employed as of 5/1, it should function for now as a spare. Atlas has another aircraft going to paint soon, so that, too, may end up as a spare or may pick up a new route sometime after 5/1.
I am assuming that CVG will end up as some degree of a goatrope at the handover to DHL ground handling and cross-docking on 5/1. What degree of goatrope it turns out to be, and for how long, will necessarily inform how quickly new routes are added in May and June. I try to be a realist, which means that in this case I am a pessimist. Regardless, there will be a steady supply of 767-300s coming aboard at ATI and Atlas in May, June and July, so what has been a pretty-static network since December should really start to ramp up and we should see new stations and new ways of connecting them coming faster than we are used to.
In preparation for the opportunity to add additional Amazon dry leases beyond the initial contract for 8 767-300s, we are seeing CAM pump additional aircraft into conversion at TLV. Right now, there are five such unallocated aircraft in conversion or on their way, all of which could be flying for Amazon either as dry-leased aircraft or operational spares at the ATSG carriers by the end of the year.
Nikeson is going to have lots of amendments to make to his maps!