LHR Reports Lower Traffic For 2nd Month In 2016

factsonly · Thu Jun 09, 2016 1:35 pm

For May 2016, London's Heathrow Airport reports a second month of lower passenger traffic in a row.

LHR Passenger data - 2016 vs 2015

- Jan 2016 = 5.507.000 vs 5.454.689 pax +1%
- Febr 2016 = 5.179.374 vs 4.954.259 pax +4.5%
- March 2016 = 6.100.967 vs 5.950.930 pax +2.5%
- April 2016 = 6.047.226 vs 6.144.333 pax -1.6%
- May 2016 = 6.292.660 vs 6.342.533 pax -0.8%

The Jan-May 2016 traffic data were driven by:

- UK Domestic -12.6%
- UK - Europe +2%
- UK - Africa -6.4%
- UK - N. America +1%
- UK - L. America +4.1%
- UK - Middle East +7.2%
- UK - AsiaPacific +3.1%

May 2016 reports:

- UK Domestic -12.3%
- UK - Europe +1%
- UK - Africa -7%
- UK - N. America -2.5%
- UK - L. America +0.2%
- UK - Middle East +7.9%
- UK - AsiaPacific -0.6%

Are we witnessing a statistical blip?
Is this a sign of lower economic activity in the UK and lower air travel?
Or are we witnessing regular competitive forces and shifting markets?

http://www.heathrow.com/company/inve...and-performance/traffic-statistics

Richard28 · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:25 pm

I think the early Easter this year has had an affect - hence the higher figure in March, and lower in April.

LHRFlyer · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:39 pm

I suspect weakness on oil routes and in Russia as well as uncertainty over Brexit are a factor.

vv701 · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:45 pm

Quoting factsonly (Thread starter):
- Febr 2016 = 5.179.374 vs 4.954.259 pax +4.5%

As 2016 is a leap year there is an extra day (a Monday) in the 2016 calendar. This can explain all of this growth - see below.

There are also calendar impacts in Match and April. This is because in 2015 the Easter weekend fell in late March but in early April in 2016.

Even in January there is a calendar impact. In 2015 January had 22 working days but one less in 2016. This was reversed in May which, allowing for the May Day and Spring UK Bank Holidays, had 19 working days in 2015 and 20 in 2016.

So with one working day being approximately 5 per cent of the working days in any month making a month to month comparison at an airport operating near to capacity like LHR may primarily show a calendar rather than a passenger number impact. However these variations decrease when looking at cumulative numbers.

The cumulative five month total for 2016 is 29,127,227. For 2015 it was 28,796,871. So there was a year on year growth of 1.1 per cent. However because 2016 is a leap year this is for a period of 152 against 2015's 151 days (+0.7 per cent).

So the average number of passengers per day has hardly grown at all. In the first five months of 2015 it was 190,707. For the same period this year it was 191,626 (+0.5 per cent).

ahmetdouas · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:46 pm

Or maybe more people are flying Ryanair into STN = )

factsonly · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:51 pm

Slightly off topic, but the May 2016 data for IST are in as well:

Not entirely unexpected, Istanbul Airport passenger numbers down 5.2%.

- IST Traffic May 2016:

Passenger numbers: 5.2 million, -5.2% year-on-year;
- Domestic: 1.7 million, -3.1%;
- International: 3.5 million, -6.1%;

Aircraft movements: 39,483, +1.0%;
- Domestic: 11,891, -2.9%;
- International: 27,592, +2.8%.

TC957 · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:51 pm

Quoting Richard28 (Reply 1):
I think the early Easter this year has had an affect - hence the higher figure in March, and lower in April.

That would be a contributing factor for sure, but I wonder if VS operating smaller aircraft is also a factor ? ( 789's instead of 744's )

Summa767 · Thu Jun 09, 2016 2:56 pm

I tend to disregard March and April because of the Easter effect, but May figures should give reason for thought.

So UK domestic and Africa is where there has been substantial decrease. UK domestic has to do with mainly with BA strategic cancellations of domestic flights that are mainly used as slot holders. Also in May last year there may have been some remnants of Little Red operations that are no longer there this year. A slowdown in the UK economy may be a factor to watch out for. Traffic stats are often a good indicator of the economic temperature.

Africa is understandable given that some countries in the continent are suffering instability, and oil related lower demand.
Asia Pacific could be a blip for May, but worth watching out for next and future months.

SCQ83 · Thu Jun 09, 2016 3:14 pm

Quoting factsonly (Reply 5):

I don't think you can see a trend. There are economic cycles.

Check GRU or GIG and traffic is dropping in the two digit numbers.

On the other hand traffic at places like ATH, MAD, CPH, AMS is booming...

David_itl · Thu Jun 09, 2016 8:02 pm

Quoting factsonly (Thread starter):
Is this a sign of lower economic activity in the UK and lower air travel?

Just because LHR has had a slight fall, don't presume all UK airports are experiencing lower demand for air travel. For example, MAN has had 25 consecutive months with passenger increases with an increasing number of long-haul routes being started (in the last 30 odd days, LAX, BOS and PEK) as well as the expected European service increass.

TedToToe · Thu Jun 09, 2016 9:24 pm

Quoting TC957 (Reply 6):
That would be a contributing factor for sure, but I wonder if VS operating smaller aircraft is also a factor ? ( 789's instead of 744's )

More than offset by an increase in seats at BA, I suspect. We have seen the increased seat count on the Airbus A319/320/321's etc. and the arrival of 789's and A380's. Sure, the Super Hi-J 744's carry fewer than a year ago, but I suspect BA has increased capacity nonetheless!

factsonly · Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:43 am

The May 2016 traffic data for FRA are just in and these show an even more dramatic results:

Frankfurt Airport - May 2016:

- Passengers 5.303.480 (-5.5%)
- Movements 41.181 (-3.5%)
- Cargo 177.536 (-1.3%)

Bongodog1964 · Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:23 am

The BA publishes figures for May are:

Revenue Passenger Km (m)
May 2016 12,552
May 2015 12,170
Increase 3.1%

Revenue passenger Km (m)
Year to date 2016 57,159
Year to date 2015 55,629
Increase 2.8%

Available Seat Km (m)
May 2016 15,643
May 2015 15,182
Increase 3.0%

Year to date 2016 72,439
Year to date 2015 70,975
Increase 2.1%

Obviously BA are reporting RPK, whereas LHR are reporting total passenger numbers, but I'm not aware of BA making a huge change to their flight mix. RPK figures will always look better if short haul flights are replaced by long haul ones.

Bearing in mind that BA control just over 50% of LHR slots and their figures suggest they may well be gaining passengers to the rate of 2 - 3% somewhere in the remaining 48% or so of flights someone is taking a hammering to produce an overall decrease of 0.8%

Summa767 · Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:20 am

Quoting Bongodog1964 (Reply 12):
BA are reporting RPK, whereas LHR are reporting total passenger numbers, but I'm not aware of BA making a huge change to their flight mix. RPK figures will always look better if short haul flights are replaced by long haul ones.

Well, This May there were new flights to SJC and ICN that were not there in May 2015. Not sure if there additional frequencies elsewhere made possible by the 789s that have arrived, and that have meant a net increase in the long haul fleet.

SCQ83 · Fri Jun 10, 2016 11:59 am

Quoting factsonly (Reply 11):
The May 2016 traffic data for FRA are just in and these show an even more dramatic results:

Frankfurt Airport - May 2016:

- Passengers 5.303.480 (-5.5%)

That is a bit more worrisome. Also, FRA has little spill to other airports (as a long shot, CGN which is booming due to FR). HHN also has been losing passengers for a while.

However London is a different animal. I think all airports (STN, LTN, LGW, SEN, LCY) should be accounted. Even for long haul, LGW is increasingly more competitive (BA to JFK, Norwegian, Cathay, more EK, etc)

[Edited 2016-06-10 05:00:57]

ahmetdouas · Fri Jun 10, 2016 12:10 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 14):

Agree fully, it should be whole cities that are counted.
The same would go for IST as SAW is really booming and even TK is opening new international routes there.

factsonly · Fri Jun 10, 2016 3:29 pm

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 8):
On the other hand traffic at places like ATH, MAD, CPH, AMS is booming...

Copenhagen Airport has now published its May 2016 data:

- Passengers 2.449.712 +10.8%
- Movements 23.379 +4.4%

Bongodog1964 · Fri Jun 10, 2016 4:24 pm

Quoting ahmetdouas (Reply 15):

Agree fully, it should be whole cities that are counted.

The figures we see here are released by Heathrow Airport Ltd. They are not in any way official figures from a Government department or the air regulator (in this case the civil aviation authority) They are the airport owners figures and may not even be calculated in the same way that the Govt would. In the UK LHR, LGW, STN and LTN are all owned/operated by different companies. They would never produce consolidated figures.

factsonly · Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:02 am

Just to compare the LHR data with some other European airports reporting May 2016 passenger data:

- LHR = 6.292.660 -0.8%

- Bergen BGO = 532.674 -0,4%
- Oslo OSL = 2.270.987 +5,7%
- Stavanger SVG = 369.279 -5,5%

- Stockholm ARN = 2.206.887 +7,5%
- Copenhagen CPH = 2.549.878 = +10.8%

peterinlisbon · Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:14 pm

I would suspect it could have something to do with prices. For me Heathrow is by far the most convenient airport as it's near where I live. However, I haven't used it in years because it's always cheaper to fly from Stansted, Gatwick or Luton. For example, a one way flight to Marrakech costs 25 pounds from Stansted, 150 pounds from Heathrow. To Istanbul it costs 30 pounds from Stansted, 90 pounds from Heathrow. In London as a whole I'm sure traffic is up.

PietPiloot · Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:35 am

Figures for Amsterdam are as follows for Apri:

Passengers: 5.252.171 (+10,1%)
Cargo: 137.665 (tons) (+ 6,8%)

Aircraft movements: 39.780 (+5.8%)

Year to date passengers figures are even higher: 11,7%.

This high increase is mainly caused by KLM and partners and EasyJet. Amsterdam also has a high number of extra long haul passengers extra brought to AMS by KLM, AeroMexico, China Eastern (still to start) and certainly Jet Airways.

SCQ83 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:31 am

AENA has released numbers for May. Not sure if it is a record May (I think so). Of the 16 airports with +200k monthly PAX, all of them are growing, and 13 with double-digit growth.

IBZ +20,8%
TFN +20,1%
LPA +18,6%
SCQ +17,7%

VLC +15,4%
TFS +14,1%
BCN +12,3%
AGP +12,2%
ALC +12,0%
MAH +11,9%
FUE +11,6%
PMI +11,3%
BIO +10,7%
MAD +7,3%
ACE +7,1%
SVQ +5,9%

B742 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:54 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 21):
SCQ +17,7%

Slightly off topic - but how does this compare to VGO and LCG?

SCQ83 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:09 am

Quoting B742 (Reply 22):
Slightly off topic - but how does this compare to VGO and LCG?

I think LCG is in plateau and VGO with +50% increases after traffic collapsed during the crisis (still far from records).

However VGO's growth is due to the arrival of (subsidized) Ryanair, with DUB and BLQ and daily flights to BCN (and a daily VGO-BCN with FR is a lot of seats). Vigo council also subsidizes Air Nostrum (flying to numerous holiday routes and some oddities like LTN twice weekly in summer) and Volotea. I will not do any comment

Bear in mind VGO is stuck between SCQ and OPO.

In any case, SCQ has now a more comprehensive portfolio of carriers and destinations, which in my opinion is a game changer for the airport, even compared to the pre-crisis situation. In the last year and a half SCQ has become a year-round base for both Vueling and Ryanair, and competition is always good

. This coming winter (low season), Ryanair will have 13 destinations (of which 3 international) and Vueling will have 10 (of which 3 international; and 6 additional summer destinations)... and then you still have Swiss, Aer Lingus or easyJet Switzerland.

Summa767 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:05 am

Quoting SCQ83 (Reply 21):
AENA has released numbers for May. Not sure if it is a record May (I think so). Of the 16 airports with +200k monthly PAX, all of them are growing, and 13 with double-digit growth.

I am sure that overall it is a record May. Not so for certain airports though: MAD and MJV had better record numbers before the financial crisis. But overall fantastic numbers.

But Spain is clearly undergoing a tourism boom -and that is clearly reflected in falling unemployment too.
With its fantastic infrastructure (High speed trains everywhere for one), great prospects ahead -I can see it a very attractive option for companies looking to set up shop in Europe -and more so after Brexit without the significant competition that the UK would have provided.

SCQ83 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:04 pm

Quoting Summa767 (Reply 24):
I am sure that overall it is a record May. Not so for certain airports though: MAD and MJV had better record numbers before the financial crisis. But overall fantastic numbers.

But Spain is clearly undergoing a tourism boom -and that is clearly reflected in falling unemployment too.
With its fantastic infrastructure (High speed trains everywhere for one), great prospects ahead -I can see it a very attractive option for companies looking to set up shop in Europe -and more so after Brexit without the significant competition that the UK would have provided.

MAD is not comparable.

After the crisis (2008) high speed lines have been opened to major cities like Malaga, Valencia or Alicante. Those are million of "missing" PAX. Renfe now has completely changed (like Iberia tbh) and offers very attractive fares, good service and many connection possibilites (I am doing Valencia-Madrid for 25 EUR next week on 1h40' downtown-to-downtown... compare that with a plane!). I find Renfe today much more reliable and with better service than SNCF or DBahn which I need to use frequently.

The remaining high-speed is the North. However there is already high-speed train to Leon and Zamora. Even if not completed, that is putting pressure on flights from SCQ, OVD, LCG, VGO, SDR, BIO and EAS to MAD. Madrid-Oviedo by train is already about +3 hours, while OVD is about 45' away from the city itself in a windy rainy region with bad public transportation links. Just do the maths and the confort.

MAD on the other hand is booming in intercontinental and European services which is well shown in the arrival of international tourists to the city. There are many European destinations that had maybe one carrier before the crisis that now are served by multiple carriers (BHX, MAN, CPH, HAM...) or just new destinations (BRE, GOT, etc). Intercontinental... new destinations like AUH, DXB (EK started as late as 2011 or 2012), ADD, HKG and soon PVG or NRT.

MAD has never been so well served in terms of destinations and carriers. It is just the domestic mainland traffic that has collapsed due to the trains.

factsonly · Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:15 pm

Paris CDG reports May 2016 data:

- May 2016 = 5,742,307 -1.1%
- Jan-May 2016 = 25,564,588 +0.9%
- Last 12 months = 65,995,388 +2.7%

International traffic (excluding Europe) was down (-1.8%), with a decrease in the following destinations:
- Asia-Pacific (-10.0%), notably Japan and Malaysia,
- Africa (-2.6%)
- Latin America (-1.1%)
- North America (-0.5%)

So far LHR (-0.8%), FRA (-5.5%), IST (-5.2%) and CDG (-1.1%) all report traffic down in May 2016.

B747forever · Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:25 pm

Quoting factsonly (Reply 26):

So far LHR (-0.8%), FRA (-5.5%), IST (-5.2%) and CDG (-1.1%) all report traffic down in May 2016.

It is really interesting to see how traffic increases at Scandinavian airports and AMS while all those major hubs are decreasing. I am sure some of it is due to DYs massive long haul growth at ARN/OSL/CPH. Instead of flying over all those hubs, now more than ever before Scandinavian pax can reach a lot of long haul destinations nonstop.

SCQ83 · Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:39 pm

Quoting B747forever (Reply 27):
It is really interesting to see how traffic increases at Scandinavian airports and AMS while all those major hubs are decreasing. I am sure some of it is due to DYs massive long haul growth at ARN/OSL/CPH. Instead of flying over all those hubs, now more than ever before Scandinavian pax can reach a lot of long haul destinations nonstop.

In the case of CPH, it will be largely due to Ryanair.

They started S15 only with LTN, WMI and BGY, and for W15 they added +10 more destinations (most of them at least daily) which were not flown in May 2015. In terms of passengers, that is much more than your odd 2 weekly B787 somewhere in the US.

Also more competition means lower prices, and CPH is a destination very easy to stimulate as a city-break and a wealthy place where people will travel if they get good fares.

http://cphpost.dk/general/ryanair-st...-has-huge-plans-in-copenhagen.html

Quote:
126 weekly flights

The airline has also launched its summer 2016 schedule, which includes 15 routes, including a new route to Oporto in Portugal, catering to some 2.5 million passengers.

Ryanair’s summer schedule includes four daily flights to London; two daily flights to Brussels and Milan; one daily flight to Madrid, Malaga, Rome, Dublin, Cologne, Stockholm, Kaunas and Budapest; three weekly flights to Bologna and Oporto; four weekly flights to Edinburgh; and five weekly flights to Alicante.

Vos · Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:48 pm

The AMS numbers for May 2016 are presented today by Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.

The number of passengers rose by 6.7 percent (in relation to May 2015) to 5.7 million, while the amount of cargo handled fell by 2.3 percent to 134,566 tonnes. The number of aircraft movements increased by 5.7 percent.
The number of passengers on flights within Europe continues to grow strongly, by 8.1 percent in May. The amount of travelers on intercontinental routes grew by 2.4 percent, according to figures from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.

The number of transfer passengers increased by 1.9 percent to almost two million. The number of passengers using Schiphol as a start or end point (point-to-point) of their travel increased by 9.1 percent to nearly 3.8 million. This growth is mainly due to new point-to-point routes from low-cost carriers such as easyJet and Vueling.

Vos · Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:59 pm

So far (major European hubs in May 2016 compared to May 2015):

LHR 6.3 million (-0,8%)
IST 5.2 million (-5,2%)
FRA 5.3 million (-5,5%)
CDG 5.7 million (-1,1%)
AMS 5.7 million (+6.7%)

Nice fact: The difference between AMS and CDG in the number of processed passengers is only 1422 pax; which is equivalent to less than three flights with an Airbus A380.

factsonly · Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:07 pm

Vos wrote:
So far (major European hubs in May 2016 compared to May 2015):

LHR 6.3 million (-0,8%)
IST 5.2 million (-5,2%)
FRA 5.3 million (-5,5%)
CDG 5.7 million (-1,1%)
AMS 5.7 million (+6.7%)

Nice fact: The difference between AMS and CDG in the number of processed passengers is only 1422 pax; which is equivalent to less than three flights with an Airbus A380.

And another fact for May 2016 concerns a revolution in aircraft movements, i.e. airport system utilization.

For the first time ever LHR has been overtaken by another European airport in number of movements:

2016 - Jan - May - aircraft movements:

1. AMS 193.606
2. LHR 193.258
3. CDG 188.042
4. FRA 186.016
5. IST 183.520

As AMS is now running over 4.000 movements / month ahead of LHR, it is unlikely that LHR will maintain its 2015 lead position:

2015 - aircraft movements

1. LHR 472.067
2. CDG 469.322
3. FRA 468.153
4. AMS 465.521
5. IST 447.159

It is musical chairs in Europe this year !

dubaiamman243 · Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:00 pm

If the UK leaves the EU, LHR will suffer alot

fcogafa · Wed Jun 15, 2016 11:12 pm

The other London airports would probably suffer more with airlines like Wizz and Ryanair having many routes to eastern europe

LHR Reports Lower Traffic For 2nd Month In 2016

LHR Reports Lower Traffic For 2nd Month In 2016

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