FAQ

WHAT IS THIS REPORT?
This compares departures for sale THIS WEEK for the stated period versus what was for sale LAST WEEK...It does NOT compare to last year or now (UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED).

HOW DO I READ IT?
XXX-YYY DEC 4>5 JAN 4>5 ; means that the listed airline changed the frequency between the two airports to add from 4 to 5 roundtrips in December and January. No other months were changed. I only list one direction, although it is possible the listed change is only one way. It is too difficult to average the two directions. I assume the change is roundtrip and that is most often the case.

WHERE ARE SEATS SHOWN?
They aren't. This only shows departures.

HOW ARE THE DAILY DEPARTURES CALCULATED?
This report uses total operations for the month listed, divided over the days in the month.

WHAT ARE THE FRACTIONAL FLIGHTS?
Flights that do not operate every day of the month create fractional service. In most cases flights are rounded, but in the case of international service or markets with low frequency, fractions are shown. For example, if a flight operates 4 times in April it will show 4/30=0.133=0.1. Also , a flight that only operates once per week may vary between 0.1 and 0.2 because a weekday may repeat either 4 or 5 times depending on the month.

WHAT ABOUT CARRIERS THAT DON'T PUBLISH A SCHEDULE 9 MONTHS IN ADVANCE?
Most airlines publish schedules 11 months in advance. This report covers the next 9 months. That avoids seeing schedules as they are loaded. Several LCCs load their schedules less than 9 months into the future. I remove the schedule adds if I see them and show a year over year (YOY) comparison if I notice them.

THOSE FLIGHTS AREN'T DELTA, THEY ARE SKYWEST
This report only shows the marketing code. It is too complicated to show all the operators.

THE FREQUENCIES MAY HAVE CHANGED AS YOU SHOW, BUT THE SEATS DIDNT CHANGE BECAUSE OF EQUIPMENT SWAPS
That is a natural weakness of a frequency based report, but it provides something to discuss below.

THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ERROR?
The carriers file the schedules. They do make mistakes. Most of the mistakes I have seen are either related to code shares not being marked as "duplicates" or carriers filing flights with invalid data such as equipment codes that are not standard. This causes flights to not appear.

CHARTERS?
Lately charters have been showing up in the database. I have no idea if that will continue.

I marked some of the ones I thought were interesting with an "*".

*2D LAX-PUJ NOV 0>0.3 DEC 0>0.3 JAN 0>0.3 FEB 0>0.3

3M FLL-BIM AUG 1.5>1.9 SEP 1.2>3 OCT 1.2>3 NOV 1.1>1.9 DEC 1.3>3 JAN 1.3>2 FEB 1.6>2
3M PBI-NAS SEP 0.3>0.4 OCT 0.3>0.4
3M RSW-NAS AUG 0.3>0.2 SEP 0.3>0 OCT 0.3>0 NOV 0.3>0.1

4B ABQ-CNM AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.9
4B ABQ-SVC AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
4B AIA-CDR JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B AIA-DEN JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B CDR-DEN JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B CNM-DFW AUG 0>0.9 SEP 0>0.9
4B CNY-DEN AUG 1.0>1.7 SEP 1.0>1.7
4B CNY-SLC AUG 2>3 SEP 2>3
4B CVN-DFW AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
4B DEN-MCK AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B DEN-VEL AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B LAX-MCE JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
4B MCE-OAK JUL 0>1.7 AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7
4B MSP-TVF JUL 0>3 AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
4B PHX-SOW AUG 0>3 SEP 0>3
4B PHX-SVC AUG 0>1.0 SEP 0>1.0
4B SLC-VEL AUG 0>1.7 SEP 0>1.7

4M MIA-EZE FEB 0>1.0
4M MIA-PUJ FEB 0>0.1

7Q APF-MLB SEP 0.3>0.2
7Q MLB-PWM SEP 0.3>0.2

AA DCA-MYR OCT 0.3>0.1
AA DFW-LIT JAN 8>9 FEB 8>9
AA MIA-SCL DEC 1.5>1.7 JAN 1.3>1.6 FEB 1.0>1.2
*AA ORD-CAK OCT 0>1.6 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2
AA ORD-RNO NOV 1.0>0.2 DEC 1.0>0.5 JAN 1.0>0.3 FEB 1.0>0.5

AB JFK-DUS FEB 1.1>1.0
AB ORD-TXL FEB 0.7>0.6
AB RSW-DUS FEB 0.6>0.5

AM IAH-MTY JUL 1.0>0.9

AS ANC-DUT JUL 5>3 AUG 5>3 SEP 4>3 OCT 4>3 NOV 4>1.9 DEC 4>1.9 JAN 4>1.9 FEB 4>2

B0 EWR-LTN OCT 0.9>1.0 NOV 0.8>1.0 DEC 0.9>1.0 JAN 0.8>1.0 FEB 0.9>1.0

B6 BOS-PDX OCT 0.6>0.3
B6 EWR-SJU NOV 1.4>1.1
B6 JFK-KIN NOV 1.8>1.6
B6 JFK-SDQ NOV 5>4
B6 JFK-STI NOV 5>4
B6 MCO-CUN NOV 1.4>1.3

BW JFK-GEO AUG 1.0>1.2

CA SJC-PVG SEP 0>0.4 OCT 0>0.4

DL ABQ-MSP JAN 0.1>0.0
DL ATL-BDA NOV 1.0>0.9
DL ATL-DUS SEP 1.0>0.7
DL ATL-LHR OCT 3>1.9
DL BMI-MSP JAN 0.9>1.7 FEB 0.9>1.7
DL DTW-BGM AUG 3>2
DL DTW-ITH AUG 3>2
DL JFK-AGP SEP 1.0>0.7
DL JFK-MAN OCT 1.0>0.9 NOV 1.0>0.8 DEC 0.9>0.8
*DL JFK-PBI SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.7>0
DL JFK-SNN SEP 1.0>0.8 OCT 0.8>0.6
DL LAX-MTY NOV 1.0>0.9
DL MSP-RHI SEP 1.0>2 OCT 1.0>2 NOV 1.0>2 DEC 1.0>2
**DL MSP-YQR AUG 1.9>0 SEP 1.5>0 OCT 1.4>0 NOV 1.5>0 DEC 1.7>0 JAN 2>0 FEB 2>0
DL PIT-CDG SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 0.7>0
**DL SEA-BZN SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 2>0.0 FEB 2>0
**DL SEA-MSO SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0
DL SEA-PVR DEC 0.3>0.5
DL SEA-SJD DEC 0.3>0.5
DL SLC-LHR OCT 0.8>0.7
DL SLC-TWF AUG 3>1.9

IB JFK-MAD JAN 2>1.7 FEB 2>1.4
IB MIA-MAD NOV 1.8>1.7 DEC 1.9>1.7 JAN 1.8>1.5 FEB 1.9>1.4
IB ORD-MAD JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7

JJ MIA-GRU DEC 1.8>2.0 JAN 1.8>1.9

*KE LAX-GRU SEP 0.4>0.3 OCT 0.4>0 NOV 0.4>0 DEC 0.4>0 JAN 0.4>0 FEB 0.4>0
KE LAX-ICN OCT 3>2 NOV 3>2 DEC 3>2 JAN 3>2 FEB 3>2

LA JFK-SCL DEC 1.0>1.3 JAN 1.0>1.5 FEB 1.0>1.4
LA MIA-CCS JAN 0.1>0 FEB 0.1>0

MU HNL-PVG AUG 1.0>0.7
MU JFK-PVG AUG 2>1.8 SEP 2>1.9 OCT 2>1.9
MU ORD-PVG SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 1.0>0.7

NK DTW-LAX SEP 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>1.9
NK DTW-MYR FEB 0>0.7
NK LAX-OAK SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3
NK MYR-ORD FEB 0>0.7
NK SAN-SJD NOV 0.8>0.5 DEC 1.0>0.6

PD BOS-PD PIT-UA DEN-ASE JAN 9>8
UA DEN-FAT JAN 4>3
UA DEN-FSD JAN 5>4
UA DEN-LAS JAN 6>5
UA DEN-MSY JAN 2>1.1 FEB 2>1.5
UA DEN-SEA JAN 5>4
UA DEN-SLC JAN 7>6
UA DEN-TUS JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
UA EWR-ANU DEC 0.8>0.6
UA EWR-BZN FEB 0.2>0.1
UA EWR-CLE OCT 6>7
UA EWR-CMH OCT 6>7 NOV 6>7 JAN 5>6 FEB 5>6
UA EWR-LAS JAN 7>6
UA EWR-MCO OCT 8>9
UA EWR-PBI JAN 6>7
UA EWR-PHX JAN 4>3
UA EWR-SEA JAN 3>2.0
UA EWR-SNA JAN 3>1.8
UA EWR-STL JAN 6>4 FEB 6>5
UA IAD-PWM OCT 3>4
UA IAD-SAN JAN 3>2.0
UA IAD-SEA JAN 3>1.9
UA IAH-BOS JAN 6>5
UA IAH-DEN JAN 13>12
UA IAH-GSP AUG 1.4>0.9
UA IAH-HDN JAN 0.1>1.0
UA IAH-JAC JAN 1.0>0.2 FEB 1.0>0.5
UA IAH-PDX JAN 3>2.0
UA IAH-PNS JAN 5>4
UA IAH-SEA JAN 6>5
UA LAX-BZN FEB 0.8>0.5
UA LAX-DEN JAN 9>8
UA LAX-HNL JAN 5>4
UA LAX-IAD JAN 8>7
UA LAX-IAH JAN 13>11 FEB 13>12
Obvious DL Response
*UA LGA-RDU NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3
UA ORD-ALB NOV 5>3 DEC 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
UA ORD-BDL NOV 5>4 JAN 5>4
UA ORD-BHM OCT 3>4 JAN 4>3
UA ORD-BNA JAN 6>5
UA ORD-BOS NOV 9>8 JAN 9>7 FEB 9>8
UA ORD-BUF NOV 5>4 JAN 5>4 FEB 5>4
UA ORD-CAK NOV 5>4
UA ORD-DSM NOV 6>5
UA ORD-EGE FEB 0.2>0.1
UA ORD-FAR JAN 4>3
UA ORD-FSD NOV 5>4
UA ORD-GRR NOV 5>6
UA ORD-GSO NOV 3>4
UA ORD-HDN FEB 0.8>0.5
UA ORD-JAN NOV 1.8>1.0
UA ORD-LIT NOV 3>4
UA ORD-MBS NOV 4>3
UA ORD-MCI NOV 7>6
UA ORD-MLI NOV 5>4
UA ORD-OMA NOV 6>5 DEC 6>5 JAN 6>5 FEB 6>5
UA ORD-ORF NOV 4>3
UA ORD-PDX JAN 4>3 FEB 4>3
UA ORD-PHL NOV 7>6 JAN 7>5 FEB 7>6
UA ORD-PHX NOV 3>4 JAN 3>4
UA ORD-PNS FEB 0.7>0.5
UA ORD-RAP NOV 0.9>0 DEC 0.9>0.5
UA ORD-ROC NOV 3>4
UA ORD-SDF NOV 5>6
UA ORD-SEA JAN 4>3
UA ORD-UA ORD-YUL NOV 5>4
UA ORD-YVR NOV 3>1.9
UA SFO-ASE JAN 2>1.1 FEB 2>1.5
UA SFO-BOS JAN 7>6
UA SFO-FLL NOV 1.0>0.4
UA SFO-IAH JAN 10>9
UA SFO-KIX NOV 1.0>0.7 DEC 1.0>0.7 JAN 1.0>0.7 FEB 1.0>0.7
UA SFO-MCI JAN 2>1.0 FEB 2>1.4
UA SFO-PDX JAN 8>7
UA SFO-RNO JAN 5>4
UA SFO-SEA JAN 10>9
UA SFO-SLC JAN 6>5
UA SFO-TUS JAN 2>3

UP MCO-NAS JUL 4>3 SEP 1.1>1.2 OCT 0.9>1.0
*UP PBI-NAS JUL 0.3>0 AUG 0.3>0 DEC 0.3>0 JAN 0.3>0 FEB 0.3>0

*VX LAX-OGG JAN 0>1.0 FEB 0>1.0

*ZK ORD-YNG JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.4 SEP 0>1.5 OCT 0>1.4 NOV 0>1.4 DEC 0>1.5 JAN 0>1.4 FEB 0>1.4

[Edited 2016-06-12 06:49:09]

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *DL JFK-PBI SEP 1.0>0 OCT 1.7>0

Much like JFK BNA and JFK IND, the Delta flight planners seem to have a lot of fun with this route. JFK PBI has been started/stopped/started more times than anyone on here can count. Bizarre for a NYC-Florida route that essentially sells itself.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *UA LGA-RDU NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3

Key Difference: EWR has no slots. DL loses nothing. LGA is very slot restricted. UAs very small LGA operation gets diluted with 3 cuts to fund a pissing match with the gorilla next door. Stupid.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *UA LGA-RDU NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3

Any idea where these slots are coming from? No mention of any other hub losing flights.

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 2): Any idea where these slots are coming from? No mention of any other hub losing flights.

UA still runs 6x daily CLE-LGA on regional jets. If I had to guess, it would be coming from that.

Quoting lakeeffect (Reply 3):

Timetables showing no changes to LGA-CLE

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1): UAs very small LGA operation gets diluted with 3 cuts to fund a pissing match with the gorilla next door. Stupid.

I thought UA had a few unused LGA slots....

Well UA did say they were planning on being a bit more "disruptive" in the marketplace..... 

AA uploaded DFW-KOA nonstop as of Dec15 on 763 as well.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SEA-BZN SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 2>0.0 FEB 2>0 **DL SEA-MSO SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Has DL now totally given up on SEA-Montana? I recall they cut BIL already but I don't remember if they fly SEA-FCA. AS has to be pretty happy with themselves, but there really wasn't enough traffic for two carriers on these routes, and dropping fares enough to stimulate more traffic would have just made for unprofitable flying.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): NK DTW-LAX SEP 1.0>1.8 OCT 1.0>1.9

Nice, looks like it is sticking this time. They were going to do it this summer, then pulled it.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7): Has DL now totally given up on SEA-Montana? I recall they cut BIL already but I don't remember if they fly SEA-FCA.

These were not Delta flights, they were Delta Connection flights. Delta Connection has no chance of competing against Alaska/Horizon. And we can see that they have failed since they've now pulled the plug on all SEA-Montana service.

DL does serve FCA from SLC and MSP but I don't believe they've ever flow SEA-FCA.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7): Has DL now totally given up on SEA-Montana?

Ironically, the only time I've flown the SEA-BZN route on DL was to save money on a flight from SLC. SLC-SEA-BZN was WAY cheaper than the nonstop. I've also flown that sector on AS several times, almost always with connections to or from DL in SEA.
I think that SEA is as big as any market from Montana. There are significant economic and cultural ties between them. But Montana is so sparse to begin with, that even the biggest markets will struggle to support more than one carrier. I would guess that DL is probably getting lots of low-yield connections on Montana-SEA, and they would rather consolidate these over SLC.

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 9): These were not Delta flights, they were Delta Connection flights. Delta Connection has no chance of competing against Alaska/Horizon. And we can see that they have failed since they've now pulled the plug on all SEA-Montana service. DL does serve FCA from SLC and MSP but I don't believe they've ever flow SEA-FCA.

I beg to differ, and as an Alaska MVP Gold (was 75K when I did some flying out there).

a CRJ 700/900/EMB 175 is night and day compared to Horizon's Q400s or even OO CRJ 700s flying as Alaska. I saw a lot of fellow "gold tags" on my SEA-PDX flights and also a few sitting up in First Class with me.

Now that Alaska is "seeing the light" and adding OO EMB 175s with First and throwing those on the longer routes would I agree with your assessment.

While many of Alaska flyers are loyal, we also fly the widget when it makes sense, and also get our upgrades and EQMs...  

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 9): These were not Delta flights, they were Delta Connection flights. Delta Connection has no chance of competing against Alaska/Horizon. And we can see that they have failed since they've now pulled the plug on all SEA-Montana service. DL does serve FCA from SLC and MSP but I don't believe they've ever flow SEA-FCA.

So why can Delta Connection - regional partners - not compete with Horizon, another regional? AS flies no mainline into Montana as far as I know.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 11): Ironically, the only time I've flown the SEA-BZN route on DL was to save money on a flight from SLC. SLC-SEA-BZN was WAY cheaper than the nonstop.

I've done similar routings. Routes via SLC (and DEN on UA) are known to be quite expensive for the relative stage length.

Quoting redzeppelin (Reply 11): I would guess that DL is probably getting lots of low-yield connections on Montana-SEA, and they would rather consolidate these over SLC.

I agree with that.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 12): So why can Delta Connection - regional partners - not compete with Horizon, another regional? AS flies no mainline into Montana as far as I know.

Because IPFreely is a troll on DCI. He has made it clear time after time that he has an irrational hate of their connection operations. He complains and complains about how "bad" they are, but never can provide stats to prove it, and generally ignores you when you call him on it

-DiamondFlyer

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): Obvious DL Response *UA LGA-RDU NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3

Oh good, I can see we are back to 2003 again. Same old dog and pony show temper-tantrum response.
At least DL has a reason with their RDU focus city to fly to EWR. This makes zero sense for UA with their operation at both LGA & RDU.

This one might be up there with when NW was going to fly LGA-DFW in response to AA adding LGA-MSP

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *ZK ORD-YNG JUL 0>1.4 AUG 0>1.4 SEP 0>1.5 OCT 0>1.4 NOV 0>1.4 DEC 0>1.5 JAN 0>1.4 FEB 0>1.4

Will this be another Elite Airways codeshare?

ZK no longer serves ORD with their own metal, and ORD-YNG doesn't seem to be the sort of at risk flying they'd operate, especially because....

*AA ORD-CAK OCT 0>1.6 NOV 0>2 DEC 0>2 JAN 0>2 FEB 0>2

CAK is just 46 miles from YNG, and CLE is only 62 miles away.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 16): Will this be another Elite Airways codeshare?

No, Aerodynamics (ADI) operating on a ERJ145.

-DiamondFlyer

LGA-RDU on UA? Very interesting. I was thinking UA would respond to DL doing EWR-RDU, without a doubt. However I was predicting UA would go to something like RDU-EWR 9x or 10x a day. I did not envision anything quite this direct and shameless. But if UA can do it without diluting something else, why the h***l not. Some people always seem to complain that UA does not fly to New York "proper," sufficiently with the hub in EWR on the "Jersey side." I have no doubt UA will fly the route as long as DL does RDU-EWR.

I see the flight is Express.

Some people say UA is afraid to compete. I guess not. I don't think it's stupid at all.

[Edited 2016-06-12 09:04:22]

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 18): Is the flight mainline or Express?

UAX Republic E70. So at least a reasonably competitive product. If they threw an ExpressJet or Trans States ERJ on it, I would say, no chance.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): DL PIT-CDG SEP 1.0>0.7 OCT 0.7>0

Seemed like this flight was doing better. PIT economy not as strong now?

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SEA-BZN SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 2>0.0 FEB 2>0 **DL SEA-MSO SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 7): Has DL now totally given up on SEA-Montana? I recall they cut BIL already but I don't remember if they fly SEA-FCA. AS has to be pretty happy with themselves, but there really wasn't enough traffic for two carriers on these routes, and dropping fares enough to stimulate more traffic would have just made for unprofitable flying.

IIRC some of those flight times were pretty bad. Super late night SEA-Montana and very early AM Montana-SEA. That would limit the appeal.

Theoretically DL should do well with SEA-Montana. Long history of NW serving MSP-Montana for eastbound connections combined with DL's long history serving Montana via SLC. I'd think there would be more DL loyalists than AS loyalists overall, but perhaps those are not flying to SEA.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1): Key Difference: EWR has no slots. DL loses nothing. LGA is very slot restricted. UAs very small LGA operation gets diluted with 3 cuts to fund a pissing match with the gorilla next door. Stupid.

   I couldn't have said it better - agree with every word of this.

There are fights worth picking, and there are fights that are literally impossible to win. Delta and AA investing in almost certainly margin-dilutive (at least near-term) domestic growth at west coast hubs in order to develop west coast gateways to Asia is an example of the former. This idiocy, if real, is clearly an example of the latter.

As was alluded to already, I can think of no better way for United's management team to communicate to already-skeptical Wall Street that the story the industry has been telling - that this time is different, and the irrational behavior of the past is gone - is just a line, and analysts' skepticism is warranted. I literally wouldn't be surprised to see this route mentioned in analyst reports as an illustration that the industry still hasn't truly learned from the past - which is unfortunate, because I think in truth it actually largely has.

Quoting intoairlines (Reply 6): AA uploaded DFW-KOA nonstop as of Dec15 on 763 as well.

Cool - figured this was only a matter of time. I suspect this route isn't just going to run for a few weeks at the holidays, either. If the response is solid - as has apparently been the case with the second DFW-OGG - I would not be at all surprised to see DFW-KOA operate at other peak times of the year like spring break and peak summer (June-August).

It's pretty incredible that DFW-Hawaii will now be up to five 767s a day at peak times. Given that AA's 767 fleet is only going to be less than 20 aircraft in the not too distant future, it's amazing how much of that capacity - again, at least at peak times - will be just on DFW-Hawaii.

I must admit that I also can't help wondering about ORD-HNL. It seems like if AA thinks it could make DFW-KOA work - even just for a few peak periods of the year - I can't believe AA is still resisting doing at least he same with ORD-HNL. AA should be able to make ORD-HNL work profitably for at least those same peak seasons of the year (spring break, June-August, holidays).

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 20): IIRC some of those flight times were pretty bad. Super late night SEA-Montana and very early AM Montana-SEA. That would limit the appeal.

I wonder if DL was using Montana as an experiment with planes it would otherwise have sitting on the ground at SEA.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 20): Theoretically DL should do well with SEA-Montana. Long history of NW serving MSP-Montana for eastbound connections combined with DL's long history serving Montana via SLC. I'd think there would be more DL loyalists than AS loyalists overall, but perhaps those are not flying to SEA.

Price is still king and there are probably fewer die-hard loyalists than there are price-conscious travelers. Every time I've flown from Montana markets, QX via SEA or PDX was notably more affordable than the DL or UA options. A lot of passengers on those flights aren't going to SEA or PDX but connecting southward to California or even further.

Quoting HPRamper (Reply 12): So why can Delta Connection - regional partners - not compete with Horizon, another regional? AS flies no mainline into Montana as far as I know.

They may be competitive on flight times and fares, but not on reliability. Horizon has good operational results. Delta Connection is plagued by frequent delays and cancellations.

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 20): Theoretically DL should do well with SEA-Montana. Long history of NW serving MSP-Montana for eastbound connections....

Theoretically you are correct. But Montana-MSP is served by Delta mainline so passengers can depend on getting there and getting there on time to connect to other flights. Flying Delta Connection to Seattle is a different story. For passengers who need to get where they're going with acceptable on-time performance, Alaska/Horizon is the only viable option for Montana-SEA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 21): Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 1): Key Difference: EWR has no slots. DL loses nothing. LGA is very slot restricted. UAs very small LGA operation gets diluted with 3 cuts to fund a pissing match with the gorilla next door. Stupid.    I couldn't have said it better - agree with every word of this. There are fights worth picking, and there are fights that are literally impossible to win. Delta and AA investing in almost certainly margin-dilutive (at least near-term) domestic growth at west coast hubs in order to develop west coast gateways to Asia is an example of the former. This idiocy, if real, is clearly an example of the latter. As was alluded to already, I can think of no better way for United's management team to communicate to already-skeptical Wall Street that the story the industry has been telling - that this time is different, and the irrational behavior of the past is gone - is just a line, and analysts' skepticism is warranted. I literally wouldn't be surprised to see this route mentioned in analyst reports as an illustration that the industry still hasn't truly learned from the past - which is unfortunate, because I think in truth it actually largely has.

Well, DL is not exactly large in EWR either. I was looking for where UA cut LGA flights to add RDU flights. I did not find where UA has diluted LGA. UA has what 16 flights a day from LGA-ORD? UA at LGA is much larger than they were in JFK, no doubt. CO flew LGA to AUA on Saturdays, big deal. EWR has no slots, fine. But where is UA cutting in LGA? I missed that part. If UA is cutting flights to to add RDU, then you would be 100 percent correct. If UA can add at LGA, why not? I knew this was coming. DL adding EWR-RDU is smart. UA adding LGA-RDU is not. UA has a large pool of travelers in the NYC area. Do you doubt this? Course not. Competition is a good thing people. When UA cuts a route due to competition: like CLE-LAS or LAX-MSY, people just go crazy and talk about how inept UA is. When UA adds flights to compete, we are told UA should not compete. Again, what flights is UA dropping from LGA to add RDU? Again, what are they dropping?

[Edited 2016-06-12 09:52:01]

[Edited 2016-06-12 10:04:54]

Quoting threeifbyair (Reply 20):

The difference is that Alaska had to motivation to go after the Montana Seattle market and Delta did not. Delta was competing against itself in SLC as well as AS in SEA and Alaska increased frequency to ensure loyalty to AS in the market. DL either needed to go all in or fold and they folded because ultimately they also have SLC for Montana. And believe it or not, Alaska does have a vey loyal following that will choose them when possible because they are the more "hometown" airline in the region. Not to say Delta does not also have a loyal following, but to Seattle they were second because their frequency was inferior.

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 23): They may be competitive on flight times and fares, but not on reliability. Horizon has good operational results. Delta Connection is plagued by frequent delays and cancellations

The OO company page (as of 6/11) is boasting 50k flights (27 days) without a controllable cancellation. OO's DCI operation has gone 41 days without a controllable cancellation. The lowest ACF among the DCI carriers currently is 99.68, and three are at 100%.

Seems like the DCI operation is running better than ever as well.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 24): But where is UA cutting in LGA?

They've got to cut something.

ORD
DEN
IAD
IAH
CLE

So what is worth cutting 3 flights from? No way they have unused, weekday slots at LGA.

As for CO flying LGA AUA...it was Saturday only when slots and perimeter are not an issue. This is 3 daily.

Bizzare.

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28): They've got to cut something.

Nope...no cuts this is simply an addition.

Before RDU:
IAD 2
ORD 15
CLE 6
IAH 8
DEN 6

After RDU:
IAD 2
ORD 15
CLE 6
IAH 8
DEN 6
RDU 3

Quoting jfklganyc (Reply 28): No way they have unused, weekday slots at LGA.

Actually I think they do....UA used to fly to IAD quite a bit more than twice a day. As they now have the EWR hub there is less need to send passengers to IAD for connections and of course UA has an agreement with Amtrak.

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 24): When UA adds flights to compete, we are told UA should not compete

Welcome to the hypocrisy that is a.net.

Oscar said a while ago that UA hadn't been throwing its weight around much since the merger and that was something that was going to change...

Quoting United1 (Reply 29): Oscar said a while ago that UA hadn't been throwing its weight around much since the merger and that was something that was going to change

Good for Oscar, and good for United. But again, that doesn't mean there is no difference between smartly throwing your weight around and stupidly throwing money out the window.

United is weaker than both AA and Delta at both ends of this route, and already has multiple daily flights in the city pair (EWR included in NYC metro) from its actual hub where it has a dominant position. This is so blatantly a knee-jerk response to Delta adding EWR-RDU - fighting Delta on its own high ground and wasting resources that could be deployed elsewhere in the network linking another spoke to another hub, or provider greater connectivity on a route that isn't near-entirely O&D.

I find it fascinating that United concluded it wasn't worth fighting over JFK-LAX/SFO, but it is worth fighting over LGA-RDU.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): **DL SEA-BZN SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 1.0>0 NOV 1.0>0 DEC 1.4>0.5 JAN 2>0.0 FEB 2>0 **DL SEA-MSO SEP 1.0>0.2 OCT 0.7>0 NOV 0.9>0 JAN 1.0>0 FEB 1.0>0

Not really much of a loss. They can route most connections over SLC (albeit adding a stop) or folks can fly AS/QX and still earn miles.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): NK LAX-OAK SEP 2>3 OCT 2>3 NOV 2>3 DEC 2>3 JAN 2>3 FEB 2>3

I like this route. Not sure why, but maybe because of the chutzpah.

Quoting enilria (Thread starter): *UA LGA-RDU NOV 0>3 DEC 0>3 JAN 0>3 FEB 0>3

Weird.

Quoting IPFreely (Reply 9): These were not Delta flights, they were Delta Connection flights. Delta Connection has no chance of competing against Alaska/Horizon.

Uh-huh.....

-Dave

Quoting commavia (Reply 30): But again, that doesn't mean there is no difference between smartly throwing your weight around and stupidly throwing money out the window.

Well taking a quick look at fares right now (and admittedly this is just a couple days) the fares to RDU are higher than the fares to ORD. So am not sure if this will burn as much money as you seem to think....

Clearly there is a market for service between RDU and NYC....UA has a share of that market and perhaps they want to try and capture some of the passengers who prefer LGA over EWR. Also UA has added quite a few seats out of RDU over the past year...not as many as DL or AA but it is a growing station for them as well.

Quoting commavia (Reply 30): This is so blatantly a knee-jerk response to Delta adding EWR-RDU - fighting Delta on its own high ground and wasting resources that could be deployed elsewhere in the network linking another spoke to another hub, or provider greater connectivity on a route that isn't near-entirely O&D.

I could make the same statement about DL adding RDU-EWR...it's a rather odd ball route for them and will depend almost entirely on O&D. Sounds like DL simply trying to throw its weight around a bit....this time UA pushed back.

As for using these slots to other hub markets which one would you suggest? All of UAs hubs inside the perimeter (and CLE) already have quite a bit of service.

Quoting United1 (Reply 32): I could make the same statement about DL adding RDU-EWR...it's a rather odd ball route for them and will depend almost entirely on O&D.

I disagree. This isn't the same blatant, non-strategic, network-agnostic move for Delta that it is for United. Delta actually has placed a visible emphasis on expanding its presence in the RDU market and is now adding EWR as only the latest of multiple routes from RDU up and down the east coast. The same cannot be said for United, which has shown no particular interest in RDU nor in LGA beyond as clearly a large, rich O&D station to feed hubs.

Quoting United1 (Reply 32): As for using these slots to other hub markets which one would you suggest? All of UAs hubs inside the perimeter (and CLE) already have quite a bit of service.

When I referred to "resources" being deployed elsewhere, I was talking about the aircraft, not the slots - those aircraft could be used to start a new route or reinforce an existing route feeding into one of United's hubs, thus providing actual benefit to the overall United network.

Quoting stapleton (Reply 25): Alaska increased frequency to ensure loyalty to AS in the market.

This is a good point, and easily overlooked. AS went to 3-daily on SEA-BZN and also added PDX-BZN recently. I think they did similar things in MSP and BIL. I can't say that any of it was a direct response to DL, but it was all in the same time frame.
Maybe the cuts will help relieve some gate congestion for DL in SEA.

Quoting commavia (Reply 33): This isn't the same blatant, non-strategic, network-agnostic move for Delta that it is for United

...but UA does have a massive strategic interest in defending EWR and I think this move is extraordinarily calculated and wasn't jumped into at all. Remove RDU from the equation entirely and replace it with any other city you want...this move was entirely focused on NYC.

Perhaps UA looked at adding additional flights out of EWR to RDU as a response to DL. That would have been a direct and straight forward response to DLs move....I'm not sure it would have been the most effective move however.

1. EWR is crowded as it is and UA has a vested interest in ensuring EWR operates as efficiently and on-time as possible. DL adding flights (or any airline adding flights) simply gums up the works...a direct UA response would have simply exasperated the already tricky to schedule efficiently market that EWR is and affected UA most of all. By adding the flights at LGA they throw a wrench into the equally tricky to schedule efficiently market that is LGA without messing with their own operations at EWR....and might just cause a few more delays for DL and AA and LGA.

2. This move sends a direct message to DL of no bueno...DL added EWR-RDU today and who knows could add EWR-LAX/MCO tomorrow. This is simply UA telling DL get out of our sandbox or else we will start climbing into yours....ie its a line on the sand to DL (and other carriers) to not mess with EWR once the slot restrictions come down.

While I know people on here love to argue that EWR isn't a NYC airport it does serve the NYC region and there are a number of people in that region who prefer to fly UA. There are UA flyers between NYC and RDU who will take the LGA flights vs trecking over to EWR or connecting in DC. RDU is a growing market and UA has added quite a few seats there over the past year (not as many as DL or AA but still there has been growth.) To me this is a competitive response that also happens to grow in a market where UA has been doing some growth in...

Will UA end this flight if DL ends EWR-RDU quite probably but I think this flight isn't as knee jerk as it may appear on the surface.

Quoting commavia (Reply 33): thus providing actual benefit to the overall United network

...defending EWR is a benefit to UAs network in my humble opinion.

Quoting PSU.DTW.SCE (Reply 15): This one might be up there with when NW was going to fly LGA-DFW in response to AA adding LGA-MSP

Yep... but that flight never started. NW was bluffing...

Quoting jetblastdubai (Reply 2): Any idea where these slots are coming from? No mention of any other hub losing flights.

I suspect they may never start, either.

Quoting United1 (Reply 36): 2. This move sends a direct message to DL of no bueno...DL added EWR-RDU today and who knows could add EWR-LAX/MCO tomorrow. This is simply UA telling DL get out of our sandbox or else we will start climbing into yours....ie its a line on the sand to DL (and other carriers) to not mess with EWR once the slot restrictions come down.

the problem is UA can tell DL to get out of its sandbox all it wants, at the end of the day UA can't really do anything about it.

UA doesn't have the slots at LGA to really do much.

Quoting United1 (Reply 29): Nope...no cuts this is simply an addition.

the math doesn't add up. Either UA is cutting something or they have bought some LGA slots. IIRC even if they weren't using all their slots at LGA they didn't have enough for 3 daily round trips.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 38): uoting United1 (Reply 29): Nope...no cuts this is simply an addition. the math doesn't add up. Either UA is cutting something or they have bought some LGA slots. IIRC even if they weren't using all their slots at LGA they didn't have enough for 3 daily round trips.

UA doesn't seem to have an issue finding three additional slots for the RDU service. I posted the frequency by market before and after the RDU adds...this is additionall flying.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 38): UA doesn't have the slots at LGA to really do much.

LGA is not the only sandbox of DLs that UA can go play in...

Quoting AVLAirlineFreq (Reply 40): What aircraft will be on this route for UA? Single class RJs?

Two cabin E170s....

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 42): Then again, UA does have a tendency of responding to perceived DL aggressions (I believe DL starting SEA-SFO was a catalyst for UA to restart SFO-ATL).

That was part of UAs reaction another part was adding mainline frequency on SFO-SEA. SFO-ATL seems to still be going strong several years down the road.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 42): Do we know for a fact that UA has 3 unused daily slots at LGA?

Nothing that I can find in writing so far says they do however IIRC they do have a few unused slots from drawing down IAD. Very few airlines use 100% of their slots and you are only talking about going from 37 up to 40 daily flights...I also can't imagine UA is selling flights they know they don't have slots for.

Quoting United1 (Reply 32): I could make the same statement about DL adding RDU-EWR...it's a rather odd ball route for them and will depend almost entirely on O&D.

Two weeks ago, I flew MCO-RDU-DTW on DL, and there were signs in the jetways that DL is the #1 airline in RDU. RDU-EWR is a logical addition to DL's network, as DL continues to strive to be RDU's preferred airline.

I wasn't the only person on my MCO-RDU flight who was making a connection. DL has very quietly built RDU up not just on local O&D, but also on passengers flying up and down the East Coast who wish to bypass ATL. In the 1970s, EA had a nice hub in CLT, which likewise existed to take the load off ATL.

In case anyone is wondering, I flew MCO-DTW via RDU because I'd already logged MCO-DTW, and I wanted to add the MCO-RDU route to my personal route map  

Quoting commavia (Reply 30): I find it fascinating that United concluded it wasn't worth fighting over JFK-LAX/SFO, but it is worth fighting over LGA-RDU.

Exactly.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 42): Another recent DL addition at RDU was to DCA. So far we have not seen AA add something like BWI-RDU.

I believe AA added an additional DCA flight after DL added the DCA flights...

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 44): RDU-EWR is a logical addition to DL's network, as DL continues to strive to be RDU's preferred airline.

Great add for my favorite airport.. but I could have thought of other options that too would have worked for a business case like MSY, AUS, MCI, ORD... Yes.. ORD would have been a very very good choice.. but that would put Delta up against AA and UA.. oh, and WN..

Now AA and UA can't really squabble because their ORD presence is minimal at the most at 4x each. Even WN ORD service is minimal..

I believe Delta is looking at covering all the top 20 business markets from RDU since, whenever they add a route, they specifically mention they the new route covers one of the top 20 business markets from RDU.

They could add some leisure markets in outside of FL like SJU, NAS ,BDA, or somewhere.. I remember when the AA hub was here, BDA was very popular route from RDU because a lot of Bermudians loved to come to do their shopping and things.. the route was quite cargo heavy, if I recall correctly...

Quoting klwright69 (Reply 18): LGA-RDU on UA? Very interesting. I was thinking UA would respond to DL doing EWR-RDU, without a doubt. However I was predicting UA would go to something like RDU-EWR 9x or 10x a day.

Yup, that's how I figured they'd play it too. Make a lot more sense than jumping into a market with no feed on either end.

Will be interesting to watch it develop.

Quoting PlanesNTrains (Reply 31): Not really much of a loss. They can route most connections over SLC (albeit adding a stop) or folks can fly AS/QX and still earn miles.

AS covers connections in the Northwest very adequately, and DL's SLC hub services SoCal, NorCal, AZ NV & ID perfectly. The DL flights to MSP are a no-brainer for connections to the Midwest and East. I think DL found that MSP and SLC was canibalizing their new Montana service to SEA for connections elsewhere. there is not as much local traffic from Montana to SEA as there is service. DL really miscaluculated the need in those markets.

Quoting Sightseer (Reply 42): Do we know for a fact that UA has 3 unused daily slots at LGA? If they do not, it is certainly a knee-jerk reaction since it means UA hasn't even decided which other routes to cut in order to fund this new service.

(disclaimer: this is complete speculation on my part)

If UA does have to cut something else to fund the RDU slots, I expect the reason they haven't done so yet is because the aren't 100% sure they plan to actually fly LGA-RDU yet. The outcome UA would probably prefer is that DL take the message and drop RDU-EWR and then, by sheer magical coincidence, UA will decide that there LGA-RDU isn't economical and they'll drop it too before ever starting service.

Should they decide to actually operate LGA-RDU, they have time to drop other flights (if necessary) to fund the slots before LGA-RDU service starts.

It's great to see UA compete in a place where it normally wouldn't, but I agree with many — RDU-LGA on UA is a headscratcher.

I believe that the new service isn't coming at the expense of other UA LGA routes, though it would be a mistake if it is. All of UA's current routes ex-LGA are completely justifiable and should take precedence over dart-on-a-map routes like LGA-RDU. Even continued service on CLE-LGA makes sense.

[Edited 2016-06-12 15:17:08]