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WA707atMSP
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Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:16 pm

The June, 2016 issue of Air Transport World has a feature article about Delta Air Lines. One really interesting item in the article is that Delta "has 65 MD-90s with an average age of 18.6 years and 69 A320s with an average age of 20.6 years, and those aircraft will have to be retired in the next decade".

Greg May, Delta's Senior Vice President - Fleet Strategy is quoted in the article saying "Even with the 82 A321s and 140 Boeing 737-900ERs on order, 'we do not have enough aircraft coming in' to complete the replacement of all the retiring narrowbodies and account for growth. Delta is taking a look at both the 737 MAX and A320 neo and will likely make a decision on whether it will order re engined narrowbodies by next year".

Because Delta has already ordered small (CS 100) and large (A321 and 737-900) narrow bodies, I think this will be an A320 neo vs 737-800 MAX competition, and I could see it going to either manufacturer, depending on how the early neos and MAXs perform.
 
Sooner787
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:23 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Thread starter):
Because Delta has already ordered small (CS 100) and large (A321 and 737-900) narrow bodies, I think this will be an A320 neo vs 737-800 MAX competition, and I could see it going to either manufacturer, depending on how the early neos and MAXs perform.

Or Delta could become a launch customer for the CS500 ?
  
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:42 pm

Quoting Sooner787 (Reply 1):
Or Delta could become a launch customer for the CS500 ?

No doubt Delta is eagerly pointing out this possibility to Boeing and Airbus.

There is no need to make this order for another few years. The MD-90s have tons of cycles left in them, and Delta is participating in the life extension program for the Airbus fleet which should get all of them to 30+ years. And some big decisions will be coming during that time that will help refine the landscape in which the order takes place. Will Boeing build a Mad MAX? If so, that would be a plus for Boeing, as Mad MAX + MAX 8 could make a better 757 + A320 + MD-90 replacement package than Boeing could currently offer. Will Airbus further beef up the A320neo or A321neo? Will Bombardier have the resources to pull the trigger on the CS500? All of these things will matter to the eventual outcome.

[Edited 2016-06-13 09:42:54]
 
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intotheair
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:02 pm

My money says they'll either 1) wait for the CS500; 2) order the A320neo; or 3) split an order between A320neo and 737-8 if it's a really large order.

I also wonder if they might do a top-up of existing widebody orders (perhaps more A330neo or A350). DL will soon be retiring 744s and a lot of 763s, and in my opinion, I don't think they have enough capacity to replace them.
300 319 320 321 332 333 345 346 380 717 733 734 735 73G 738 739 744 752 753 762 763 772 77W 788 789 CR2 CR7 CR9 CRK Q400 E175 DC10 MD82 MD90
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WA707atMSP
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:21 pm

Quoting intotheair (Reply 3):
I also wonder if they might do a top-up of existing widebody orders (perhaps more A330neo or A350). DL will soon be retiring 744s and a lot of 763s, and in my opinion, I don't think they have enough capacity to replace them.

The article does not mention additional widebody orders, but it does say that "The Delta mainline aircraft most in need of replacement are the MD-88s, 72 767-300s and 12 747-400s". Simple math indicates that the 25 A350s and 25 A330 neos on order won't be enough to replace all 84 767-300s and 747s. My guess is that DL will wait until the A350s and A330 neos enter service before they decide what additional widebodies to buy.

It's also interesting that the article makes no mention of the 787s originally ordered by NW.
 
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tlecam
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:47 pm

My guess is some sort of a rolling plan with the existing fleet - they won't look for an order to respectively replace all MD-88, 320 and 763. They'll probably extend some 320 while retiring others and incrementally replacing them with newer aircraft. It reduces the risk, moderates the capex and allows them to see what else comes on the market. There isn't a great replacement for the 763's, both in terms of capacity and range. Some routes can be upgauged to a 338/9, but not all of them.
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dbo861
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:51 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Thread starter):
One really interesting item in the article is that Delta "has 65 MD-90s with an average age of 18.6 years and 69 A320s with an average age of 20.6 years, and those aircraft will have to be retired in the next decade".

What's the average age of their MD-88s? Or how about the DC9s when they were retired? These MD-90s still have a lot of life left in them.

Two thoughts:

1. They just ordered a bunch of C-Series, maybe they'll wait until some of those go into operation before deciding if they're interested in more of the family (or if they want to be launch customer for the CS500). When is Delta supposed to get their first CS100s they just ordered?

2. Since someone mentioned the 787s, this could be a leg up for Boeing. Maybe transfer Delta's deposits for the 787s over to a 738MAX order, freeing up 787 slots for potential customers (Emirates?). Since NW was a launch customer, this 787 order presumably has massive discounts which a customer ordering now probably wouldn't receive..making Boeing more money. Of course, assuming Delta isn't interested in the 787, which I'm not totally convinced is the case.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 4):
It's also interesting that the article makes no mention of the 787s originally ordered by NW.
 
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compensateme
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:00 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Thread starter):
Because Delta has already ordered small (CS 100) and large (A321 and 737-900) narrow bodies, I think this will be an A320 neo vs 737-800 MAX competition, and I could see it going to either manufacturer, depending on how the early neos and MAXs perform.
DL and NW ceased narrowbody deliveries in the early 2000s, sans a limited number of 73G DL added late in the decade. As a result of the decision pursue second-hand aircraft to its fleet, it has nearly 600 narrowbody aircraft averaging about 15-years and older. Even though these aircraft still have plenty of life left in them, replacing them will be a daunting task, especially when you consider there's an additional nearly 100 767 averaging 20-years.

While this thread will become a senseless Airbus vs. Boeing brawl, it would be shocking if DL didn't split its orders between Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier, in addition to acquiring second-hand late-model 737NG & 320. DL's future fleet composition will be different than that of today. For example, it's gate constrained at ATL, so it's choosing to replace legions of MD-88 with 739, 321 and 757 to grow.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 2):
There is no need to make this order for another few years. The MD-90s have tons of cycles left in them,

The MD-90 potentially have "tons of cycles left in them," but will likely be phased out early next decade. DL's exhausted parts supply and canalized every spare frame it did not take up for parts - including the ex-Eva/Uni frames that it had one time intended to place into active service. Eventually it will start to canabilize incumbent frames and the fleet type will no longer be economical to operate. If DL got 10 solid years service from the 65 frames (it wasn't going to keep its original orphan fleet), it'd be happy.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 4):
The article does not mention additional widebody orders, but it does say that "The Delta mainline aircraft most in need of replacement are the MD-88s, 72 767-300s and 12 747-400s". Simple math indicates that the 25 A350s and 25 A330 neos on order won't be enough to replace all 84 767-300s and 747s. My guess is that DL will wait until the A350s and A330 neos enter service before they decide what additional widebodies to buy.

You might want to check your math  .

There's 58 B763 in the fleet, with an average of 215 seats. That's 12,470 total.
There's 9 B744 in the fleet, with 376 seats. That's 3,384 total.
12,470 + 3384 = 15,854.

There's 52 A333, A339 and A359 on order. Figure these aircraft will average 300 seats (they're slightly larger than the 333) -- that's 15,600 seats -- sufficient to replace the entire remaining 744 and 763 fleet.

Of course, many of the 763 are late-build aircraft delivered in the late 1990s/early 2000s and will remain in the fleet quite some time, even if they revert to domestic use.

- - -

We can do the same with the narrowbody order:

Coming online:
61 739 + 79 321 = 26,148 seats

Being phased out:
116 MD88 + 8 757 = 18,756 seats

Toss in the additional capacity from re-configuring incumbent aircraft, the 8 319 joining the fleet full-time and you're looking at a net gain of nearly 9,000 seats. One the Connection side, the E75 coming into the fleet will surpass the capacity from the ERJ exiting the fleet. The CS will yield at least 8,250 seats...

I think it's clear DL's further ahead in the game that we may believe  Smile.

[Edited 2016-06-13 11:14:41]
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INFINITI329
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:01 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 6):
1. They just ordered a bunch of C-Series, maybe they'll wait until some of those go into operation before deciding if they're interested in more of the family (or if they want to be launch customer for the CS500). When is Delta supposed to get their first CS100s they just ordered?

Spring of 2018. I do believe DL will wait to see if they fall head over heals for the CSeries before pulling trigger on another narrow-body order from any manufacturer.
 
WA707atMSP
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:03 pm

Quoting dbo861 (Reply 6):
When is Delta supposed to get their first CS100s they just ordered?

The article says 2018. The first 35 C series are CS 100s, but DL can convert aircraft 36 to 75 to CS 300s.
 
bigbird
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:14 pm

When did DL order another 20 739ers? They originally did 100 and then were going to order another 40 contingent upon approval of a new pilot contract. When that did not materialize they did away with the order but then later came back and a further 20 for a total of 120. Did I miss something here?
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deltal1011man
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 6:52 pm

lot of talk has happened about the 737MAX. specifically the -8.

With DL's relationship with CFM I fully expect a LEAP order to be coming. DL won't be just a GTF airline.

Quoting seabosdca (Reply 2):
The MD-90s have tons of cycles left in them, and Delta is participating in the life extension program for the Airbus fleet which should get all of them to 30+ years.

The plan is to get ~30 years on all the planes. 320s have 5-8 more years in them.

The MD90s should last till 2030 or so.

however with NEO/MAX slots pretty hard to come by fully expect a order in the next few years.

Quoting compensateme (Reply 7):
including the ex-Eva/Uni frames that it had one time intended to place into active service.

I know I'm going to regret trying

but this isn't true. The mod line(s) were always planned at 65 aircraft.

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 4):

no need for a wide body order right now. 350s will be used to replace the 747 and for growth and the 339s will start the replacement of the 763 fleet.

the 787 order is still very much also. If DL really doesn't need the capacity they can be converted into 737s.

Having said that, Ed has been saying he wants to get he airline closer to 50/50 mix between domestic/international. currently in the 70/30 range so, IMO, some big growth is coming down the pipe in the 2020s.

[Edited 2016-06-13 11:53:04]
 
flyabr
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:28 pm

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 11):
With DL's relationship with CFM I fully expect a LEAP order to be coming. DL won't be just a GTF airline.

Which could just as easily mean an order for NEOs. However, I suspect that if DL is happy with the GTF on the C-Series, that may well give a leg up to a GTF/NEO order.  
 
flyabr
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:30 pm

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 11):
the 787 order is still very much also. If DL really doesn't need the capacity they can be converted into 737s.

Wouldn't it be nice if DL would tell us all what their plans are concerning that oft delayed/inherited 788 order!!
 
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compensateme
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:37 pm

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 11):
but this isn't true. The mod line(s) were always planned at 65 aircraft.

Definitely not true. DL "planned" for 65 aircraft simply because it secured commitments for 65 aircraft by late 2012. It's been confirmed that in 2013, DL negotiated with Evergreen for the ex-Eva/UNI aircraft - their president even claimed it had struck a preliminary deal with DL. Why DL walked away is speculative, but it's false to claim that they placed a cap of 65 frames.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 11):
The MD90s should last till 2030 or so.

In your opinion. But in actuality, support for the MD-90 ended awhile ago. It's simply unrealistic that DL's going to find enough parts to keep the fleet type going another ~15 years. One of the key reasons the MD-88 are being phased out is because OEM support ended in 2014...
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UA444
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 7:53 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 14):

DL can manufacture parts themselves. And they wouldn't purchase a bunch of MD-90s and just throw them away after a few years. And they also will have the 717 for a long time to come as well.
 
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Polot
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:04 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 15):

They can't manufacturer every part themselves, and that starts to get very very expensive for what point? Just to say they still operate the MD-90? At that point it makes more sense to just pick up used 737NG/A320s that become available as MAX/NEO fleets grow and phase out the MD-90s.
 
deltal1011man
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:07 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 12):

Which could just as easily mean an order for NEOs. However, I suspect that if DL is happy with the GTF on the C-Series, that may well give a leg up to a GTF/NEO order.  

At some point DL will probably have GTF powered NEOs.
but the fleet won't just be GTFs. I think DL has learned the mistake of not doing V2500s (and all the revenue that comes with them) in house. It would shock me if TechOps doesn't do both the LEAP and GTF.......

Quoting compensateme (Reply 14):

Definitely not true.

Once again, whatever you say. Not arguing about it. lol.

I do enjoy the entertainment though.

Quoting compensateme (Reply 14):

In your opinion.

edit

not going to waste my time on this one either. The flyertalk crowd is getting out of hand on here though

Quoting compensateme (Reply 14):
But in actuality, support for the MD-90 ended awhile ago.

prove it. before I even go down this road, just go ahead and prove it.

[Edited 2016-06-13 13:11:38]
 
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DocLightning
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:09 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Thread starter):
"Even with the 82 A321s and 140 Boeing 737-900ERs on order,

Which is just really odd. DL's overall fleet strategy is odd, but this is especially odd. It would make some sort of sense to, like AA, order A321s for their large NBs, 738s for their middle NB's and then A319, CS300s or 73G/73M for their small NB fleet.

But to order both the 739 and the A321 is...weird.
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Stitch
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:13 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
But to order both the 739 and the A321 is...weird.

As maligned as it is on this forum, the 737-900ER is not a complete piece of garbage. So why buy more plane (A321) then you need?
 
INFINITI329
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:18 pm

Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 9):
The article says 2018. The first 35 C series are CS 100s, but DL can convert aircraft 36 to 75 to CS 300s.

I wonder if that's contractual or just DL's choice
 
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compensateme
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:30 pm



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
But to order both the 739 and the A321 is...weird.

Why's it weird? DL already operates both types and got incredibly favorable deals on late-models of both types due to delays in the MAX and NEO programs. If the discounts being taunted are accurate... seems like a pretty smart move.

Quoting UA444 (Reply 15):
DL can manufacture parts themselves. And they wouldn't purchase a bunch of MD-90s and just throw them away after a few years. And they also will have the 717 for a long time to come as well.

Uh, no, DL cannot manufacture parts themselves.

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 17):
prove it. before I even go down this road, just go ahead and prove it.

Stop being lazy and do a search. It's easier than using proper grammar, spelling and sentence structure  . lightsabre (who works for the OEM) has talked extensively about the discontinuation of support for the MD-80/90:

Among oodles of threads:
AA MD80 Update (by globalcabotage Sep 13 2015 in Civil Aviation)
What Will Replace DL's MD-80s? (by 727LOVER Apr 18 2014 in Civil Aviation)

Besides that, it's pretty foolish to believe that OEM are still supporting an aircraft that's down to 65 frames and a single operator.

Never mind that fact that those truly connected to the DL community have been asserting for 2+ years that the discontinuation of support for the MD-80 was causing DL to reconsider its plans for the type. The ground work for retirement has been laid over that period, although DL only recently announced its intentions. Of course, you continued to insist that they'd be around until 2030   because apparently you know more than them...

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 17):
Once again, whatever you say. Not arguing about it. lol.


Back to the AA vs. DL: who will dominate LAX fanboy fan fiction threads...

[Edited 2016-06-13 13:32:36]
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UA444
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 8:49 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):
Uh, no, DL cannot manufacture parts themselves.

Uh, yes, they can. NWA did for the DC-9.
 
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compensateme
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:04 pm

Quoting UA444 (Reply 22):
Uh, yes, they can. NWA did for the DC-9.

The DC-9 lacked the complicated circuitry that plagues the MD-90. While NW was able to fabricate components for the vintage frames, DL could not cost effectively manufacture parts for the MD-90.
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deltal1011man
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 9:26 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):

*sigh* i figured you didn't know what you were talking about.

So again, where is your proof OEM support for the MD90 has ended? Let me help you out,
Delta Cancels MD-88/MD-90 Cockpit Upgrades? (by TZTriStar500 Oct 7 2014 in Civil Aviation)#menu27

"DL was the *last* airline that had a contract with the supply chain. They cancelled those contracts. MD-80s will survive a while off cannibalized parts, but that doesn't keep over a hundred MD-80s going forever. Parts not shared with the MD-90 and 717 will become scarce. I do not propose the MD-90s leave the fleet soon. They have a clear economic niche. But it is telling DL leased the 717s and didn't buy them. Personally I think it is for RR to prove the PIP on the BR715s deliver a longer time between overhaul than the current ~8,000 cycles per overhaul towards the 20k cycles per overhaul of the V2500 and CFM-56. 8k cycles was find for the JT8D... not for modern engines that cost 2X as much to overhaul." from lightsaber


PS funny you say I said the 88s would be here till 2030. Can't even read the thread you quoted? sad.
I said 2025 and was high balling. In more recent threads my number got closer to 2020. "Stop being lazy and do a search."
I will say I was wrong on the replacement type. I thought it would be smaller 737s not 739s and 321s.

Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):

Uh, no, DL cannot manufacture parts themselves.

like i said entertaining.  
Quoting UA444 (Reply 15):

DL can manufacture parts themselves. And they wouldn't purchase a bunch of MD-90s and just throw them away after a few years. And they also will have the 717 for a long time to come as well.

while TechOps does have some part support in-house and can also use PMA parts it wouldn't make sense to do so if Boeing, IAE (for the MD90) and Rolls (for the 717) dropped support.


The real issue is he doesn't know what he is talking about.

Delta did a big parts buy for the 88 fleet for all parts uncommon with the MD90/717. (mostly JT8D parts)This should last for ~7 years. This is also why a final exit date hasn't been nailed down yet. The issue is mostly engine parts for the MD80 supply chain. Pratt and its vendors have stopped producing JT8D parts without a special and large order.
For the parts the MD90/717 share with the MD88 the supply chain is still very much up and running. Also MD90 and/or 717 specific parts are still being produced.
Anyways, after the MD88 replacement was announced Ed was asked about the MD90 fleet. The answer was a decade or more.

With the V2500 staying in production for a while and flying a long time after that DL has no pressing need to replace the MD90s like they are with the MD88s.

matter of fact I bet BR715 parts are probably higher priced, but i have heard the V2500 is fairly high cost to overhaul compared to the CFM.
My understanding is the high overhaul costs and high license costs is why DL doesn't do the the engine in house..... hopefully this changes. If lightsaber reads this thread I would love to get his opinion on V2500 vs BR715 costs.

Quoting Polot (Reply 16):

They can't manufacturer every part themselves, and that starts to get very very expensive for what point?

I'm in theory they could but as you said they wouldn't.

most big MROs have the ability to produce some parts and DL does in some cases. Can TechOps completely support a fleet? no.

[Edited 2016-06-13 14:27:23]
 
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Boeing778X
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:12 pm

Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):
DL already operates both types and got incredibly favorable deals on late-models of both types due to delays in the MAX and NEO programs.

When were the MAX or NEO EVER delayed?    They even bumped up the EIS of the MAX a full quarter because development has been going so well!

Blatant lie   

Quoting WA707atMSP (Thread starter):
Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Here's what I think:

DL exercises their CSeries options for CS300s. Those units can be used to replace the A319s and older A320s. They're going to convert a large part of their existing order to CS300s, the way I see it.

I can see DL as a potential CS500 launch customer. I can see those replacing the rest of the A320s and even the 737-800s.

Perhaps a mixed order of A320neos and A321neoLRs to replace the 737-800s and Int'l 757-200s.

If Airbus or Boeing launches an A322 or MoM, I see DL (and AA and others) biting almost immediately.
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deltal1011man
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 10:24 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 25):

When were the MAX or NEO EVER delayed?    They even bumped up the EIS of the MAX a full quarter because development has been going so well!

I thought the NEO took a small delay due to engine issues?

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 25):

DL exercises their CSeries options for CS300s. Those units can be used to replace the A319s and older A320s. They're going to convert a large part of their existing order to CS300s, the way I see it.

C300 will happen. I do not think it will be from the current orders but will be the options DL has on the books.

DL can honestly use 75 or so more 100 seaters. Plenty of 717s for the eastern part of the network but the C100 is really needed for the western network. (and will open up options from LAX/SEA that are to long for the E75 but a 738 is too much airplane. i.e. LAX-ORD)

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 25):

I can see DL as a potential CS500 launch customer.

I still very much question if BBD will have the money any time soon. 10x if they really did sell DL the planes under cost.
 
AABB777
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:24 pm

Quoting deltal1011man (Reply 26):
C300 will happen. I do not think it will be from the current orders but will be the options DL has on the books.

When Richard Anderson was speaking at the Aero Club luncheon in DC on April 28 - talking specifically about the DL CS100 order - he said that DL is "...going to get a stretched version of it."
 
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seabosdca
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:25 pm

Quoting Boeing778X (Reply 25):
Here's what I think

Here's my guess. The size of the orders needed is staggering -- DL will have some major capex in the 2020s. I assume no CS500, because I don't think BBD will have the money to launch it in the near term. I assume no Mad MAX -- I think Boeing will ultimately decide to save its powder for a new aircraft and compete with low prices on MAX 9.

1) Current 739, A321, and CS orders replace the capacity of: 1) MD-88s 2) pre-1995 build A320s 3) pre-1992 build 757s.

2) Battle between A321neo and MAX 9 to replace the remainder of the domestic 757 capacity. The 757 is going to get very expensive to operate over the next decade and will disappear except where it is really necessary and less unprofitable (i.e. international) I think the A321neo will have the upper hand here, this part of the order as being somewhere around 75 aircraft, and delivery dates will start around 2020-21.

3) Battle between neo and MAX to replace the later A320s and the MD-90s. This could involve either the 321neo/MAX 9 or the 320neo/MAX 8 depending on how much domestic growth Delta foresees at order time. The more 320neo/MAX 8 size aircraft are needed, the better the MAX's chance of getting all or part of the order. MAX 8 is a compelling product and may justify operating a few MAX 9s alongside it. I see this part of the order as being for 100-120 aircraft.

4) Acceptance of all the 788s, 339s, and 359s on order (if not more), and conversion of some older 763ERs to domestic. This will help with both reducing fleet replacement expense and facilitating international growth.

5) No replacement for A319s, 73Gs, or 738s until close to 2030 at the earliest. I'd expect to see a 738 cabin refurb in the early 2020s. When these come due for replacement, if there are no further aircraft developments by then, you'd expect to see some CS300 and some larger A/B aircraft in the mix.

6) The 757-300 will cling to life long after the rest of the 757s are done; the maintenance expense will be worth it for those frames.

[Edited 2016-06-13 16:26:52]
 
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LAX772LR
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:29 pm

Quoting flyabr (Reply 13):
Wouldn't it be nice if DL would tell us all what their plans are concerning that oft delayed/inherited 788 order!!

They have, multiple times: they plan to take the aircraft in 2020 and operate it as such.

AvGeeks don't seem to be content with that answer, for whatever reason, but it doesn't negate the fact that they have indeed told us.



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
DL's overall fleet strategy is odd

Using an asset for its intended design life is odd?



Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
But to order both the 739 and the A321 is...weird.

How's it in any way weird?

They have economy of scale to where a mixed fleet doesn't matter, both types have near total-commonality with aircraft+engines that are already in the fleet, and they have two distinct missions for the two different types.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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jetjack74
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RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:59 pm

With the AS merging with Virgin, would AS be willing to unload the A319/320 aircraft like WN did with the 717s?
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DocLightning
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 14, 2016 8:09 pm

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):But to order both the 739 and the A321 is...weird.
How's it in any way weird?

They have economy of scale to where a mixed fleet doesn't matter, both types have near total-commonality with aircraft+engines that are already in the fleet, and they have two distinct missions for the two different types.[/quote]

There is an economy of scale, but AA has the same economy of scale and yet they choose a single type for each size. It seems to me that DL is choosing an unnecessarily complicated fleet.
-Doc Lightning-

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MIflyer12
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 14, 2016 9:22 pm

DocLightning wrote:
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
There is an economy of scale, but AA has the same economy of scale and yet they choose a single type for each size. It seems to me that DL is choosing an unnecessarily complicated fleet.


There are many problems which have a variety of solutions, not a unique solution.

If you want to argue AA has done everything right there are plenty of people to disagree with you.
 
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1337Delta764
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:44 pm

jetjack74 wrote:
With the AS merging with Virgin, would AS be willing to unload the A319/320 aircraft like WN did with the 717s?


I think I read in a recent thread that AS was going to update the interiors of Virgin's Airbus aircraft, so I think they will stay for now.
 
sv11
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 14, 2016 11:51 pm

What used aircraft can we expect Delta to acquire? Maybe some used frames from Ryanair, Easyjet, Gol ?

sv11
 
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cageyjames
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 12:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):If you want to argue AA has done everything right there are plenty of people to disagree with you.

Personally I like the simplification but honestly with DL having both B737s and A320s in their fleet, it doesn't really matter which one they go with. It's not like they're all Airbus except for a few B339s.
 
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DocLightning
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 2:56 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
DocLightning wrote:
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 18):
There is an economy of scale, but AA has the same economy of scale and yet they choose a single type for each size. It seems to me that DL is choosing an unnecessarily complicated fleet.


There are many problems which have a variety of solutions, not a unique solution.

If you want to argue AA has done everything right there are plenty of people to disagree with you.


That's what you call a "straw man" argument. I never argued that AA has done everything right. What I have argued is that their fleet plan is simpler.

Now, simplicity may come at the expense of somewhat less flexibility and that may be DL's goal here.
-Doc Lightning-

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Beatyair
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:04 am

The 717, CS100, & CS300 will handle the 100-150 range.
The 738,739, & 321 will handle the 150-189 range.

That being said the 738 typically, as all planes, don't ever carry a full load.

They really need the 180 - 225 range plane.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 8:46 am

INFINITI329 wrote:
Quoting WA707atMSP (Reply 9):The article says 2018. The first 35 C series are CS 100s, but DL can convert aircraft 36 to 75 to CS 300s.
I wonder if that's contractual or just DL's choice


It's contractual.
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 4:10 pm

Could the currently under-study 737-7.5MAX and 737-10MAX fall into consideration for DL? Especially the -10?
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767333ER
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:31 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
Could the currently under-study 737-7.5MAX and 737-10MAX fall into consideration for DL? Especially the -10?


I don't see why they would want to go with the -7.5 over the -8 if it is made reality. The size of the 737-8 over the A320 is one of its biggest advantages so I don't see the -7.5 being likely. The -10 would be possible, but then if the 737-10 is actually built, Airbus would most likely offer an A322.
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tlecam
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:54 am

I agree re: the 7.5. I'm wondering whether it's to force a bake off between the CS300/500, B and A?

Regarding the -10 and the 322, at what point will the time to empty the damned plane diminish the CASM benefits? Are we approaching a 753 situation? The 737-900ER already takes quite awhile to unload (from my observation - I have no data to support this.)
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compensateme
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 2:19 pm

deltal1011man wrote:
Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):
*sigh* i figured you didn't know what you were talking about.

So again, where is your proof OEM support for the MD90 has ended? Let me help you out,


Nothing you pointed supports your assertion. If one of the reasons DL opted to expedite retirement of the MD-88 fleet was due to the swelling cost of replacement parts, do you really think that it's economical to purchase parts for the MD-90, of which there's only 65 remaining in active service, all operated by one airline? lightsaber once claimed that MD-90 parts would be "10x" their original cost to manufacturer in small lots for DL, and trijetsaremissed once estimated that DL had consumed the equivalent of 30+ MD-90 to keep its 65 airworthy. And yet somehow, someway you think DL's going to keep the fleet going for 15 more years.

Here's your problem: you really don't know what you're talking about. Even as DL insiders on here hinted at the MD-88's early fate, you've maintained they're wrong and the MD-88 wouldn't begin retirements until at least 2025. Like everyone else on these forums, you're just speculating. But while a faction of us try to make educated opinions, you retort to pulling numbers out of your behind or proclaiming 'that's what DL says', insisting what you say is divine, and then accusing others of playing arm chair CEO or whatnot.

You're right about one thing, though: these forums exist for entertainment purposes. So some of us may enjoy constructing educated arguments about the future of DL's fleet, and others like to participate in fantasy in fantasy fan boy fiction threads involving the mythical future of LAX.
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bmacleod
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 3:53 pm

I'm thinking the 737Max-8 to replace remaining 757 (Internationals )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_Air ... rent_fleet

Perhaps the Max-9 to replace the 767-300ER? Wiki says the 737-900ER to replace the 763 but the Max-9 seems much more suitable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_73 ... ifications
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Dalmd88
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:12 pm

compensateme wrote:
deltal1011man wrote:
Quoting compensateme (Reply 21):
*sigh* i figured you didn't know what you were talking about.

So again, where is your proof OEM support for the MD90 has ended? Let me help you out,


Nothing you pointed supports your assertion. If one of the reasons DL opted to expedite retirement of the MD-88 fleet was due to the swelling cost of replacement parts, do you really think that it's economical to purchase parts for the MD-90, of which there's only 65 remaining in active service, all operated by one airline? lightsaber once claimed that MD-90 parts would be "10x" their original cost to manufacturer in small lots for DL, and trijetsaremissed once estimated that DL had consumed the equivalent of 30+ MD-90 to keep its 65 airworthy. And yet somehow, someway you think DL's going to keep the fleet going for 15 more years.

Here's your problem: you really don't know what you're talking about. Even as DL insiders on here hinted at the MD-88's early fate, you've maintained they're wrong and the MD-88 wouldn't begin retirements until at least 2025. Like everyone else on these forums, you're just speculating. But while a faction of us try to make educated opinions, you retort to pulling numbers out of your behind or proclaiming 'that's what DL says', insisting what you say is divine, and then accusing others of playing arm chair CEO.

He does know what he is talking about.
The problem with the MD88 parts is engine related, not airframe. Pratt has pretty much stopped the supply chain for the JT8. We have been purchasing used engines from every other operator to harvest engine parts to keep the plane flying a few more years. That is not the case for the MD90. VF2500 parts are out there still. Same as the airframe parts. Otherwise we would have never got into the 717. It shares a lot of airframe parts with the DC9,MD80,MD90.
 
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piedmont762
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:34 pm

Polot wrote:
Quoting UA444 (Reply 15):
They can't manufacturer every part themselves, and that starts to get very very expensive for what point? Just to say they still operate the MD-90? At that point it makes more sense to just pick up used 737NG/A320s that become available as MAX/NEO fleets grow and phase out the MD-90s.


Not when you own a junkyard of parts like Delta does - Maintenance 101. The M90s are tanks.
 
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Polot
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 8:37 pm

piedmont762 wrote:
Polot wrote:
Quoting UA444 (Reply 15):
They can't manufacturer every part themselves, and that starts to get very very expensive for what point? Just to say they still operate the MD-90? At that point it makes more sense to just pick up used 737NG/A320s that become available as MAX/NEO fleets grow and phase out the MD-90s.


Not when you own a junkyard of parts like Delta does - Maintenance 101. The M90s are tanks.

Junkyards don't last forever without fresh product.
 
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piedmont762
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Re: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 9:15 pm

I don't think they will have much to worry about for a long while - the M90s engines are used on Airbuses, the other components are shared with the M80 family. We forget people who are now at DL used to be at NW and kept DC9s alive for 30-40 years.

UA gets a deal on 73G since nobody wants them, but I wouldn't consider a product from the 90s fresh either.
 
deltal1011man
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Tue Jun 21, 2016 11:09 pm

compensateme wrote:

Nothing you pointed supports your assertion. If one of the reasons DL opted to expedite retirement of the MD-88 fleet was due to the swelling cost of replacement parts, do you really think that it's economical to purchase parts for the MD-90, of which there's only 65 remaining in active service, all operated by one airline?

Dude. Read. What. I. Wrote.

The airframe parts are not the issue, the issue is the engine parts. As long as the V2500 world wide fleet stays as large as it is then the cost of parts will stay low. Engines are what is killing the MD88 at DL, not the airframe.

Oh and I am still waiting for proof that Boeing and IAE have stop part support for the MD90 and V2500. (since you still can't admit you were talking out of your a**)

Dalmd88 wrote:

He does know what he is talking about.
The problem with the MD88 parts is engine related, not airframe. Pratt has pretty much stopped the supply chain for the JT8. We have been purchasing used engines from every other operator to harvest engine parts to keep the plane flying a few more years. That is not the case for the MD90. VF2500 parts are out there still. Same as the airframe parts. Otherwise we would have never got into the 717. It shares a lot of airframe parts with the DC9,MD80,MD90.

exactly this. I am sure compensateme will be around to tell you that you are also stupid.

I will say I have been hearing a lot about how high cost it is for the current V2500 overhaul contract. Curious to see what DL does, I personally don't see how they could fit it in-house with the BR715 taking the last bit of space in the engine shop.

compensateme wrote:
lightsaber once claimed that MD-90 parts would be "10x" their original cost to manufacturer in small lots for DL, and trijetsaremissed once estimated that DL had consumed the equivalent of 30+ MD-90 to keep its 65 airworthy. And yet somehow, someway you think DL's going to keep the fleet going for 15 more years.

again, maybe I am stupid for taking a direct quote (10-15 years BTW) from the CEO and listening to it. Maybe I am stupid for listening to the VP at TechOps. Maybe you, who has zero ties to DL at all do know more than they do.


That is why this place has turned into Flyertalk 2.0.

compensateme wrote:
Here's your problem: you really don't know what you're talking about. Even as DL insiders on here hinted at the MD-88's early fate, you've maintained they're wrong and the MD-88 wouldn't begin retirements until at least 2025. Like everyone else on these forums, you're just speculating. But while a faction of us try to make educated opinions, you retort to pulling numbers out of your behind or proclaiming 'that's what DL says', insisting what you say is divine, and then accusing others of playing arm chair CEO or whatnot.

You're right about one thing, though: these forums exist for entertainment purposes. So some of us may enjoy constructing educated arguments about the future of DL's fleet, and others like to participate in fantasy in fantasy fan boy fiction threads involving the mythical future of LAX.

alright. Whatever you say.

Again, learn how to read though. I will make you look a little better.
 
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compensateme
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Re: RE: Next Delta Narrow Body Order

Wed Jun 22, 2016 1:42 pm

Dalmd88 wrote:
He does know what he is talking about.
The problem with the MD88 parts is engine related, not airframe. Pratt has pretty much stopped the supply chain for the JT8. We have been purchasing used engines from every other operator to harvest engine parts to keep the plane flying a few more years. That is not the case for the MD90. VF2500 parts are out there still. Same as the airframe parts. Otherwise we would have never got into the 717. It shares a lot of airframe parts with the DC9,MD80,MD90.


With all due respect, I stand by my previous assertions; he continued to insist that DL was keeping the MD88 up until a few months ago when DL acknowledged it was seeking to replace the type. My point is that his assertions carry no more weight than that of the typical poster on here, despite his belief that they are divine.

Time will tell, but I'll maintain that the economics of maintaining the MD90 will keep the type from operating anther 15 years -- DL will soon exhaust its options for harvesting parts, and the economies of scales aren't there to cost effectively acquire the limited, new parts it needs. That's especially true with the glut of late-model 737NG and 320 likely to hit the market as global airlines seek to renew their fleets with MAX and NEO (the airlines that chased second-hand frames in the 2000s are now buying new).
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