SJC>SFO

The aircraft technically was an EP-3 which is modified for electronic monitoring.

As far as the gear on board. I am sure by this time the crew took the crash axe to all of the comsec gear on the aircraft.

Well, I am an American International Studies Student. I am a white male of age 21. As I am taking a break from studying my Mandarin Chinese, which by the way I will be in Beijing this summer for two months doing an immersion course, I am becoming increasingly bothered by this post. For those who are not American citizens, please realize that TWAmerican's comments are not adequate representations of American thought. As well as I am sure that the comments of the Chinese person who said this is war, kill, kill, kill the 24 soldiers as written on the BBC website is not an accurate represention of Chinese people either. I have been to China and several places in Asia and find the people to be very pleasant and very sensible. These people who we hear speak are extremists and do not represent our respective national ideologies well.

As to American military prescence around the world, this presence has been a build up because of former conflicts that were a threat to national security and for the benefit of allied nations. As allied countries become more self-reliant, the need for American military presence has decreased. Mainly, the American build up of strategic military posts is due firstly to WWII, and secondly due to the Cold War. Indeed, America has become a little more laxed as to their military presence around the world as stability increases. In fact, as economics become more and more global, trade will promote peace. Countries who trade with eachother, do not war against eachother. I do understand how people of other nations become angry at a "global-American-presence", but when their is a conflict, America is always one of the first to come to aid if it is necessary and required from outside the country of conflict. This is why I get angry with people who put down the US so heavily. People ask for our aid, then bight the hand that gives it to them. And how some of you blame the US immediately because it is the so-called "world power" domination and you don't like that, remember, China has its shares of downfalls too. Mainly in the areas of human rights and government domination of society.

It is my intent, as with most of the younger generation in America, to build a stable world where economics is a peace tool, not the military. This is why objectivity is so important, especially in situations like these. Think like the other person would so eachother can have an understanding of the other's mentality so that a resolution can be made that is beneficial to both parties.

The truth of the matter is, we have two super power countries with completely seperate ideologies. Both want more than ever to have trade relations because both are wise enough to see the economic potential of these trade relations. What we are seeing with this situation is one in a number of unfortunate incidents that are making Sino-US relations difficult. The fact of the matter is, we don't really know what happened up there and we probably never will. But when you have two, very stubborn in their beliefs, super power countries, a situation like this is a time when tensions will flare and it gives each an excuse to yell at each other. However, tension makes for an eventual better relationship. People become closer as they deal with their difficulties. And through this, interaction and diologue occur which helps to make future situations easier to understand. So as for TWAmerican's comments as to China, and for other's comments about the US, I apologize for that.

Now, saying that, there is one thing that puzzles me about this. And yes, I am going to defend the US a little here, but it seems rather strange that such an agile aircraft as the mig could not avoid a slow moving prop plane. There seems to have been some aggression on the part of the Chinese pilot because if you sit and analyze the situation, it doesn't make sense that the US plane could actually intentionally hit the Chinese mig based on pure phsyics.

The other dilemma is where the incident occured. Where the US pilots in international airspace, or had they wondered into Chinese? This may never be proven as well, unless there are radar images that can do so.

This situation is going to be problematic for both nations as their relations become tense, but both are very smart and very shrewed and I believe both will be rational in resolving this situation, (and they better because I want to spend the summer in China with no worries). The US and China will have an important relationship with each other, and as their relationship comes closer, both are going to build an understanding for eachother. If you look at all the conflicts in the world (i.e. the Holocaust, Bosnia, WWI, WWII, Rwanda, Somalia), each has been built because of misunderstanding and lack of education. As the world becomes more intellegent, we will gain understanding of each other. This us why education and understanding are so important.

UAL747

And yeah, I'm a liberalist, so shoot me.

It really saddens me when these anti-Chinese messages pop up.
Your views, are they based on Bill Gertz' China Threat and another authors book, Red Dragon rising ? The coming conflict with China plus the US media propping up Anti-China sentiments.
Both books are very anti-Chinese, biased, extreme and manipulative.
Not surprised if you lot been brain washed by them.

Wenlee, if you are addressing me about my opinions on the situation, I feel that I took a very unbiased approach to what I was saying. The only comments I made negatively about China were about their human rights policy and their dealings with their population. Fa Lun Gong, (I'm sorry for I do not have the correct spelling, please forgive) is an example. I have also heard many Chinese scholars who are studying in America at Universities such as Harvard, Boston University, Southern Methodist University, and Emory speak about the situation with Taiwan and on human rights. It is very interesting to note that when asked about these issues, each and every one of the avioded the question. The United States is also no White Elephant or city on the hill. We have our share of problems as well amd if you live in the US, then you can understand where I am coming from since there are many disgruntled citizens about. Propaganda is at work in both of our countries, but please do not tell me that I am biased. I know for a fact that I am a little because the US is my home, as a Chinese person would be biased since China is their home. We have emotional and political ties to our respective countries, and that does make us biased. But it is because of this bias that we strive to better our countries. And, if we can retain some of our bias, but also think objectively, we can look at our neighbors and understand them, improving our relations.Chinese literature can be just as full of propaganda and manipulation as literature in the U.S. However, in the U.S., censorship does not exist. But, if you take a look at this forum and notice all of the anti-west, anti-east comments, you can deduce that propaganda is prevalent in both countries. And BTW, I have not read any of the material that you have mentioned. At the college I go to, in our Asian studies and international relations, we do not limit ourselves to merely U.S. based literature. We read authors from all over the world, including China. This way we get a broad sense of international mentality, not just a U.S. based one. Part of enlightenment is seeing the situation from the other side.

UAL747

I wonder how my American friends would have reacted if a Russian or Chinese recce plane was similarly "pinged" by US Navy Jets off the US West Coast!

Just a question!

Can not be said in any better way!

I wish more people had the same worldview as you do.

MAC: Excellent analysis of and commentary on an ugly situation in your part of the world. In addition, a worthy tonic to the mindless hyteria and pointless moralizing by people with limited and one dimensional agendas.

A couple of points:

If I recall correctly, the slower or "burdened" a/c has the right of way. The faster a/c is responsible for collision avoidance.

International airspace is a disputed issue in many parts of the world. Cold war style confrontations will inevitably continue. Bear in mind however, that unarmed recon a/c such as EP3's, hovering on the fringe of intn'l airspace, stand no chance against fighters and as such, try exceedingly hard to avoid provoking incidents. Have incidents occurred? Sure they have. Recon a/c have strayed into unauthorized airspace and paid the ultimate price. Recon a/c have also been shot down indiscriminately regardless of where they were or what they were doing. Totalitarian regimes have little regard for diplomatic niceties unless it suits them. Remember Korean Air 007...

I certainly hope the PLAAF avoids the temptation to board the EP-3 and imprison the crew. The consequences could only be described as considerable. Even if thie entire incident is an attempt by the regime in the PRC to test the resolve of the Bush administration, I can only hope that the US response is equally determined, if not more so. All political, military and economic(remember where most of China's exports go)options should be considered. The Taiwan card should be fully exploited,
if necessary, to keep the pressure on although the US should support Taiwan regardless of what the PRC says.

Best regards,

F4N

I just read the Toronto Stars reporting on the incident and it seems that they tend to support the notion that the aircraft was in airspace that China claims but nobody reconizes. This would jive with the visual on CNN that places the aircraft 70 miles south of Hainan Island.

What is the standard limit of airspace. I thought it was 12 miles but they list it at 9 miles. Either way it is way less then 70 miles.

UAL747,

No, my message was not directed at you, in fact, your posts are very just and I agree with what you say. Its
Navion.

If you think there are bad msgs here Wenlee you should go over to the China msg board at CNN.com......yikes!!!

After thinking about this for a while, I do want to add something else. Okay, we are all aviation enthusiasts here and we all know the basic dynamics of flight and physics required.....agreed? Okay, then why on earth would it make sense that the US pilots actually turned their slow-moving, sluggish prob onto an agile, armed mig? Something else had to have gone on up there because it just doesn't make sense that two pilots, both Chinese and American, who are well trained and probably more in touch with the physics of flight, to go around playing bumper cars with their wings. And...especially for a trained pilot of the US to turn this prop onto a Mig. It just doesn't make sense. People that are claiming this must have seen "Top Gun" too many times. U.S. pilots are trained very well, they act with prudence and good judgement. Indeed, they are screened heavily for these qualities before they enter service and you don't see too many pilots in the military, especially one of those who flies a four engined prop, get a sudden rage of testosterone, or big penis sydrome and go after an armed Mig. Now, I'm not saying it was the Mig's fault either, just that what China is claiming doesn't make sense. And I know that most of you who are familiar with flight and aircraft capabilities have to agree with me somewhat.

UAL747

Ok...this is like the Cold War kind of...I've seen the pics of Norwegian F-16's. US F-15's, etc. with Russian Tu-95'
s...etc...and vice versa...

I hope China makes the correct desicion in releasing the crewmembers and allowing them to return to Kadena AB (where the mission originated) and undoubtedly back to NAS Whidbey Island where the aircraft is based...

Just my two cents,
Greg

i cant understand the nasty messages at the Chinese. I hate arguing and if anyone wants to take it up with me then try it. i hate threatening behavior but when the likes of Airbusdriver comes out with ludercrist comments like that then they need to be told.
why dont people wait for the official word on what happened before critisising others and directly dissing each other.

regards BDRules

ps reply if you think i am right or wrong as i dont mind critisism

Ual747,

IF (I say if, not to jump to any conclusion, as that seems to be a sure way to be jumped at yourself   ) it is like the Chinese say that the US a/c hit the chinese fighter, can it have been that the pilot just didn't see that the second fighter was so close.

Maybe (again maybe), the American pilot followed instruction of one of the fighters to turn and didn't notice that the other fighter was soo close on the other side.

I for one think this is a pure accident, with no hidden agendas from either party, just a "normal" mission that got a bit too close!

Alright were heading for another nice long cold war.... time to take sides.

I just saw previews for the new movie about the cuban missle crisis. And I can't help but to think about all the weapons the US is happily stockpiling Taiwan with. It seems to me that what the US is doing with their puppet, Taiwan is not much different then the Russians with Cuba. And unfortunatly the people of Cuba/Taiwan are stuck in the middle of two countries being run by two arrogant self absorbed leaders. So now that the line is becoming more deffinate we can start another arms war and get the economies back on track and of course in heavy debt.

I have to agree with the earlier posts on education because nobody has seemed to learn anything from history, but you can't expect much from a leader who made it through high school and college with low C's. Its scary that these people can be in power.

Anyway, back to this forum and the effect this "could" have, it seems the perfect situation for an A vs. B war on a/c orders. It will be interesting to see where the EU decides to go with this.

NUair,
nothing like politics on monday morning.

BDRules is right. NO ONE hear really knows what happend up there, so stop flinging around accusations and wait for the facts. (Which knowing the USA and Chinese military will probably be different versions anyway!)

Gmjh_air wrote:

just a "normal" mission that got a bit too close!


Exactly!!!

HKGSPOTTER, OXYGEN, and SABENAPILOT are all idiots. they seem to be making up their own story here. maybe they are just trying to piss people off i dont know. im sure none of them really know what happened and neither do we so until the actual details happen to become known we should all stop speculating.that being said, it is wrong for china to be holding that aircraft ( which by international law is U.S. sovereign territory ) and not letting the crew communicate with US officials is typical CHINESE GOVERNMENTat work i wouldnt be surprized if they are stripping that EP-3 right now.

Galaxy5, do not call others "idiots" simply because you did not agree to their view. Did you read forum rules??

To all,
what YOUR reaction will be if someone parked his car outside your house on the road (it's public property) and used a binocular to snoop on your house everyday? Put you into other's shoes.

Back in 1976, a Soviet pilot defected to the US in his Mig-25 via Japan. The US and Japanese millitary and intelligence had a great time taking the Mig-25 apart and go through every detail with a magnifying glass. The Russians protested loudly. Their Migs dashed back and forth around the Japanese air space while their Pacific Fleet set sail for the Sea of Japan. But at the end, the Mig-25 was cut up into several pieces and returned to the Russians in containers.

With such a precedence, there is no reason for the Chinese not to "inspect" the EP-3. In fact, I am sure that the work is already underway. I think the situation is going to be that the Chinese will return the 24 Americans soon but keep the EP-3 for a few weeks to have a good "look and see".

So if it's not that simple show me how complicated it is  

Plus, threatening violence won't win you friends here!

It was my understanding this morning that the crew has not left the plane. Does anyone have any information on this (i.e., not just idle speculation)? Also, with the sensitive electronic surveillance gear aboard, I am certain that there is a self-destruct mechanism aboard. Would it be something sufficient to destroy the aircraft or just enough to erase the data?

In any event, if the Chinese want aboard, they will probably have to take the aircraft by force as the crew remains in control of the plane. If this happens, the United States would be completely justified in proceeding with sales of Aegis weapons systems to Taiwan and imposing puntive economic measures on the PRC. Personally, however, I suspect the Chinese are smarter than that.

im not too worried about winning freinds here, how complicated do you want it? so i'll just put these posts here so you can understand better.

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/04/02/china.aircollision.04/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/04/02/china.crash.chat/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2001/US/04/01/us.china.plane.05/index.html

http://www.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/asiapcf/east/03/27/china.gao/index.html

http://www.foxnews.com/national/040201/china_reaction.sml

http://www.foxnews.com/national/040201/china_plane.sml

http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/fs_us_china_relations.html

NUair,

Cuba and Taiwan could not be more different. Where the US is supplying Taiwan with weapons to defend itself, the Soviet Union supplied Cuba with offensive nuclear missiles capable of killing over 60 million Americans in less than 10 minutes. Do you understand the difference?

China and the US are not friends and they are not partners. Anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional. The diplomatic nice talk is just that, nice talk. The US and China are economic and political competitors. I agree with MAC that China would like nothing more than to get a hold of the ultra-sensitive technology aboard the EC-3. As stupid as some of you think all Americans are, we are not stupid enough to purposefully risk giving this technology away by straying into recognized Chinese airspace and then playing bumper planes with fighter jets. It is more likely that China took this risk hoping they would be able to get access to the plane by forcing it down on Hainan. For all we know, the pilot ejected and is already the toast of Beijing. But we'll never know because it is just like this regime to play the victim card and build up fury amongst the poeple. The last I heard they were ready to storm the Embassy again. Just listening to the invective coming out of Beijing would make one believe they want an all out war with the US right now. I'm not hearing similar war talk from DC. Are you?

Latest news reports suggest the Chinese have already boarded the a/c in any case.

Just watched a CNN news conference with Bush&Mubarak, where Bush was reminded of the fact that the Chinese had reportedly already had access to the a/c.

He requested China not to tamper further with what is regarded as sovereign US territory.

If this is true, it appears the Chinese have gone a bit too far.

Wouldn't you think that the "sailors" aboard the USN aircraft would have scuttled the classified equipment before allowing the Chinese to see it? (I hope.) If not, they should be court martialed for dereliction of duty.

Nice to see so many reactions on my first mail, even if several people lost all temper and called me an idiot.
I must say that I don't really care about that, since it just proves to what degree some people really believe Hollywood: if the USA are not the good ones, then the story simply can't be correct.

The basic point however can never be ignored by the US military: i.e. what was that plane doing there off the coast of China??? So, who came to look for problems in the first place??? So, who is the offender, you think???

I'm sure the USA would react in the same way to a Chinese plane flying up and down the Californian coast and everybody (including me) would praise such a similar response.

The only difference is that I keep the same attitude towards the situation no matter who's the victim and who's the offender.

Basically: I'm objective and some are not.

>By God, that aircraft is a 4 engined sovereign piece of the United States and if the Chinese so much as touch her,..........there gonna be trouble. (just kidding).

You shouldn't be kidding- thats the truth. This is sick.

>A USN aircraft was flying near Chinese territorial airspace, but as far as we know not in it.

Exactly. If they say they were in international airspace, then they were in international airspace. Take anything the communist Red Chinese say with a grain of salt.

>The mig-like quickmovers visually spot the 4 engine prop and instead of politely escorting to a safer distance, they come up hard one port and starbord. Too hard, so when the p3 banks right, one of the chinese is hit and goes down. Ok, America haters...whose fault is this?

Again, exactly. How can ANYONE side with the Chinese, anyway? Oh- maybe it was eight years of desensitizing....

>Your views, are they based on Bill Gertz' China Threat

Funny you mention him- hes on the radio right now. But, no, my views are based on nothing other than the fact the the Red Chinese took down one of our aircraft with our men, based right here in Seattle (Whidbey NAS), holding them hostage, and having no remorse but quite the opposite. This is frankly an offensive action by the PRC and cannot be tolerated. President Bush just had a short press conference a little while ago and hes going way too soft on the commies.

>there is no reason for the Chinese not to "inspect" the EP-3

Based on what people are saying (both from the left and the right), the EP-3 is sovereign of the USA. It has the same status, really, as a US Embassy. If its touched (or our men, for that matter), there'll be hell to pay.

>Does anyone have any information on this (i.e., not just idle speculation)?

Yup- no the Red Chinese are still holding the USN people hostage on that island, but word is that State Department officials are en route.

>Personally, however, I suspect the Chinese are smarter than that.

I don't. They don't act very rationally in these situations. I wouldn't be surprised if they just went off and did anything they want after having eight years of a soft administration. I say if they touch our guys, there goes MFN, we pull out our corporations, impose sanctions, and cut them off totally (it'll take a while, but the end result will be worth it).

>Wouldn't you think that the "sailors" aboard the USN aircraft would have scuttled the classified equipment before allowing the Chinese to see it? (I hope.) If not, they should be court martialed for dereliction of duty.

If they are able to do that, I sure hope they did.

>it appears the Chinese have gone a bit too far.

That's an understatement. And now they're brainwashing their citizens on state television. Look at all the examples on this forum....

First of all, no self-respecting fighter pilot would ever want his government to say a transport category airplane collided with him!!! Fighter pilots are (supposedly) highly trained to fly formation and avoid this type of problem. I fully support the U.S. in this situation. That said, based upon precedent of the U.S., Russia, and basically most other countries, I would examine that EP3 from stem to stern. I don't like it, being an American, but I would absolutely pick the aircraft apart with a fine tooth comb if I were the Chinese. This is too big a prize not to. And make no mistake about it, the U.S. officials know that is what the Chinese have already started doing.

Galaxy5,

Your a waste of space.


Everyone else,

I only reported what I heard. And yes I do think the US think they are bigger then they are. Do they think China is affraid of them ?? They are not. What if the US crew have already contacted their family ??, what if the chinese are looking after them well ??

Whats to say the P-3 did not hit the Chinese jet ? I can only guess that the two did a bit of `you would not dare to touch me' getting so close until one of them hit the other.

When you look at the record of the USN and USAF it is hard to think they dont do anything wrong.

Dropping bombs on their own people ?
Hitting fishing boats with a submarine ?
Dropping bombs on the Chinese embassy ?

Lets see what the result is, if we ever know the truth.

Actually CNN is reporting that the U.S. still has not been allowed to see the crew and that a source in China is reporting that the crewmembers are being held individually.

Yes I do have issues with the treatment of the crew in that way.

This is name, rank serial number kind of stuff here.

Dropping bombs on their own people ?
Hitting fishing boats with a submarine ?
Dropping bombs on the Chinese embassy ?

how about:
Snapping a cable causing 20+ people in the cable car plunged to death?
Flying 2 fighters into a mountain?
Shooting down two friendly choppers without IDing first?
etc etc.

"Taiwan is not much different then the Russians with Cuba. And unfortunatly the people of Cuba/Taiwan are stuck in the middle of two countries being run by two arrogant self absorbed leaders."

Whatever. The US wasn't threatening to destroy Cuba before the USSR started parking all those BMs there. And Taiwan want's the US help. If it wasn't for the US Taiwan would be part of the PRC right now.

The US wasn't threatening to destroy Cuba before the USSR started parking all those BMs there

I'm assuming that you have never learned of the Bay of Pigs debacle. That is what led to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Hkgspotter1: "Dropping bombs on their own people ?
Hitting fishing boats with a submarine ?
Dropping bombs on the Chinese embassy ?"

Ever heard of the word "accident?" Those 3 are well-known to be accidents. Don't distort facts and then use them offensively.

On the other hand, I hope that this situation gets settled quickly to avoid further damage. Other than that I will not take sides on this issue and wait for the facts to see for myself who is at fault.

Grow up folks. Contempt for America and Americans is as annoying (if not more) than American chest-thumping. You'd think by the attitudes of these posts, the world would be a safer happier place without the existence of the United States military. I suspect the opposite is true. Come on, if America were truly an evil expansionist empire, it would have conquered everything by now and the Olympics would be rather boring. Let's wait until the 2 countries give their versions of the incident so we can still never know what really happened.

One more thing Hkgspotter1, those acts are reprehensible and the U.S. military are not the most careful people in the world, but they are accidents without bad intentions, OK?

FYI Hkgspotter, if in fact the P3 hit the Chinese fighter, that fighter pilot better be the shittiest pilot they have as no halfway decent fighter pilot would hit a large stable platform like the P3. Saying the P3 "hit" the fighter is a joke to anyone who flies these birds! Sabenapilot, you say what if the Chinese or Russians run up and down the U.S. coast? Fact is, the Soviets/Russians have been (and maybe still are) running up and down the coasts of the U.S., especially the east coast including just a few miles offshore of Florida for decades. You clearly don't know your facts or history. There is protocol in these matters of intercepts and the Chinese clearly either don't know it or just aren't very good at it. Think about it, we have a P3 "taking on" Chinese F-8's??!! I doubt it!! THIS IS THE BEST THING THAT'S EVER HAPPENED TO CHINA. THEY ARE BEING HANDED THE CROWN JEWELS OF TECHNOLOGY ON A SILVER PLATTER.

F4N

Currently I'm Stateside, not in Taiwan but may be headed back there soon (G).

The big threat I see are the massively destabilizing efforts by the PLA Missile forces aiming M-9 and M-11 MRBM missiles at Taiwan.

News reports from Bill Gertz at the Washington Times in recent days suggests a -third- missile brigade is about to be activated along Fujian Provence's coast opposite Taiwan. The PRC Navy also has just commissioned a new ballistic missile submarine. I believe they have acquired or are about to acquire at least one "Oscar" class Russian ballistic missile submarine which is widely regarded as a "convoy buster" submarine, capable of wreaking all kinds of havoc. In addition to "Sovyremny" class guided missile destroyers being sold to the PRC Navy, armed with "Sunburn" surface to surface missiles, the PRC also desires to have an aircraft carrier online soon as well.

The (unbelievably ridiculous) comparisons of Cuba and Taiwan to each other are indicators of how little the public understands the Taiwan-China issue en toto. Taiwan DOES NOT posess offensive nuclear capable missile of any marque in it's inventory. It posesses purely -defensive- weapons. The People's Republic of China on the otherhand posesses a growing strategic nuclear armed ICBM and medium range ballistic missiles capable of hauling tactical and biological/chemical weapons. The PRC now posesses the capability to missile bombard Taiwanese cities with impunity if they wanted to.

Source on Chinese nuclear forces: (this is somehwat dated, no current tally on the Fujian Provence missile buildup, but serves as a modest baseline to understand their capability.)

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/index.html

Little is understood why the US supports Taiwan. It is a vibrant, multi-party democracy, over 90% of the people vote there. I have personally met current President Chen Shui Bian, I have also spoken out online via various websites on Taiwan's behalf as well as corresponding with US Senator's Jesse Helms (The Taiwan Defense Enhancement Act sponsor) and Rick Santorum. I'll say it again, Taiwan is a true friend of the United States, they love their capability to have a democratic process and are not an aggressor, pariah state; unlike their massive neighbor to the West. Taiwan has NEVER been governed by the Communist Regieme established in 1949 on the mainland, and therefore cannot make any legal claim to it.

The Republic of China on Taiwan is the continuing, rightful and -legal- government established by Doctor Sun Yat Sen in 1911.

The only reason people got chicken livered with the PRC was after 1964, when they detonated their first nuclear weapon. Nixon went to "open up China" during the 1970s only to help establish closer spying bases -inside the PRC- to monitor the Soviet Union's eastern frontier, and to hasten an end to the Vietnam War, to whom which the PRC was a major arms supplier to the NVA side. Those missions are now finished. The question now is, what is the purpose of US-China policy?

Taiwan has long had a free market economy. What I find amazing is the level of ignorance of Taiwan's plight versus the bully tactics of the PRC opposed to it.
PRC President Jiang Zemin made three promises to his people:

1.) Reunify with Hong Kong
2.) Reunify with Macau
3.) Reunify with Taiwan (by force if need be)

The first two have been scratched off the list. Taiwan is the next objective, and given the change of administration in Washington, and what I believe is a panicked attitude by the PRC, may now be willing to risk a conflict sooner rather than later to force their way.

The PRC government has essentially two governments within a government, the civilian side lead by Jiang Zemin and Zu Rong-ji, and the People's Liberation Army lead still by many Maoist believers and hardliners on the top General staff.

This I believe this is a far more volatile situation than we would like to admit.
The 8 years of coddling the brutalitarian regieme in Beijing is now bearing fruit: The Rise of PRC Hegemonism in Asia. They are now showing their "opening acts" on how they are willing to do anything it can to force the US out of Asia, to include war and threats of it. They are rapidly approaching the level of "playing with nuclear fire" I might add. This is a massively risky and destabilizing "show" they are attempting to create internally to whip up Chinese nationalism and increase regional uncertainty against the US. These are classic, cold war era types of scenarios being played out.

We went down this road with a threatening bully during the 1930s in Europe. We ignored him too and look what he did. The attempts to use trade and overlooking exploding trade deficits as a backdoor means to somehow "buy liberty" or a "nicer government" from them have not played according to the plans some have had within the US and international community.

The business community has had -far- too much influence, while little to nothing in terms of American ideals in our dealings (freedom, human rights, etc) with them. This in turn has helped create a monster that now posesses the economic and military industrial machine to build a truly aggressive war machine and pariah state that can threaten it's neighbors either directly or through sales of military armaments to rogue states that accomplish same aim. (to wit: PRC assistance to Iraqi air defense systems using fiber optic cabling) This is almost straight out of the planning and coordination Hitler's Armaments minister, Albert Speer detailed in his book "Inside the Third Reich". It's truly chilling.

A new book by Bill Gertz, "The China Threat" is available from Amazon.com, it details all the schemes the PRC have used to get what they want in their quest for regional military and economic supremacy and of course their direct challenge to the US. I have long felt that our next major war -will- be versus the PRC, it's not a question of if, but when.

Regards
MAC

Very interesting stuff. You write well (or at least I think you write well when it's something I agree with!). I agree completely that the PRC is the biggest threat to democracy in the region, or at least to Taiwan.

Doesn't a chinese fighter jet fly alot faster than a plane with 4 propellers? I think that the chinese could have avoided this, they know that the navy does routine flights over the south china sea. also the chinese bumped the americans. a fighter jet handles alot better then a prop. they probably just want the americans technology.

IMHO- chinese are most agressive people in Asia.

China is entering an ERA in which it never experienced before, and are just trying to show off its military might by scaring other neighbor.

This is a simple incident created by Chinese military as bargaining chip to prevent arm sale to Taiwan.

Any idiot could see how a 4 propeller EP-3 can turn into a mach 2 jet fighter. This is a joke. Unless the chinese pilot is blind, there is no way for the EP-3 to turn into F8 or F8 is engaing in predatory manuver against the EP-3.

China is simply flexing its muscle to demonstrate its power.

Too bad there are barbaric state such as China. With newly acquired power, China is and will be the trouble maker of the new millenium. Too bad, country like Taiwan, Japan, Phillipine have babarian as neighbor.

This got to be a joke.

The EP-3 was in international water. Hence it is not violating chinese air space.

Spy mission is employed by every country in any form. So what is your point?

It's not like belgium does not have any intelligence agency either.

PS. Russian routinely have Sub surfacing through out US coast. So what is the difference between a sub or airplane. Both are conducting same type of actions.

>When you look at the record of the USN and USAF it is hard to think they dont do anything wrong.

When you look at the record of Red China and the PLA, that makes the USN and USAF look impeccable!

>Fact is, the Soviets/Russians have been (and maybe still are) running up and down the coasts of the U.S., especially the east coast including just a few miles offshore of Florida for decades

Exactly right. I read an article here in Seattle that said that at any given moment, there is a former Soviet or Chinese sub within 80 miles of Seattle. Quite close enough to launch a missle.

MAC_Veteran, VERY nicely done. Lets see how they'll handle the truth.

>Doesn't a chinese fighter jet fly alot faster than a plane with 4 propellers?

Oh yeah. There is absolutely no doubt who struck who. The Chinese struck the USN turboprop. And now they are holding the American crew hostage. Their families here in the Seattle area have no idea what is happening to them; they are not even allowed to speak to the US Consulate or US Embassy.

This is plain sick, and if the PRC keeps this up there'll be hell to pay. They should realize that President Bush is giving them a LOT of room here. Lucky for the commies he hasn't sent half the Pacific Fleet to the South China Sea.

Navion

Well, we may disagree vs-a-vs Airbus and Boeing, But this issue has me completely -riled up-.

I have a permanent, personal affiliation to Taiwan, my wife is from there, my daughter is half Taiwanese-Chinese. I have lived there and grew to truly appreciate the people and their yearning to live in a free society, a free and unfettered economy that inspired creativity and innovation, free from fear, and above all free from threats and intimidation to acquiece and bow to Communist Brutalitarian rulers that wear grey Mao jackets. The Taiwanese are -sick- of the power plays foisted by Beijing that consistently try to bully Taiwan one way or another, the attempted isolation of Taiwanese diplomatic efforts by the PRC in the world community, to even get as persnickety anal as preventing Taiwanese medical and research participation in a vast talent pool to help cure diseases in the UN World Health Organization (WHO).

THAT'S HOW ANAL THE PRC IS! They even prevent Taiwanese participation in the WHO to help cure diseases!!

The PRC government in my view are the continuing reminder and definition of the words "brutalitarian -thug- regieme" crafted during the 1930s. And nothing less.

Part of my ire directed at US industry was -their- role in coddling and helping the PRC government as well. It's amazing to walk into Walmart and see everything made -their- while people struggle with minimum wage jobs working with companies who remain back here. This rush to "trade them into becoming democratic" is being proven for the scatological farce it is. The more frightening side to it is the direct influence it has fueled the Chinese version of a 'Wehrmacht' that leads to a conflict in the near future. "War Machines" are generally begotten via "Economic Machines" and their expanded establishment. Once in place, if a government so motivated to establish hegemonism chooses, can broadly use these tools in hand to build weapons of war and destruction. This becomes very acute if an ideological philosophy to drum up nationalistic sentiments at home while controlling a media machine to preach the message they want to a captive audience. Repetitious messages of conquering something (Taiwan) with force is repeated over and over again (which has been the case of the threats from the PRC to Taiwan in recent years, along with the massive media manipulation to whip up a frenzy inside China done after the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade 2 years ago).

These are chillingly reminiscent pages taken from Nazi Propaganda Minister Josef Goebbels' 'schtick" I might add as well. Thugs read and practice from the same example.

With the transfer of technology, from stolen US Trident 2 W88 nuclear warhead designs, to sales of Russian SU-27 fighter planes and submarines, coupled with a massively growing economic base and industrial capability in hand, it doesnt take much to figure out that the basic ingredients to create economic and military superpower are now in place and brewing to a boil in that proverbial "witches cauldron".

BTW, I attended National Cheung Keung University in Tainan City, Taiwan to study Mandarin Chinese. That's the -same- university suspected nuclear spy Wen Ho Lee atteneded. (G).

Regards
MAC

Does anybody else here suspect that this was an intentional act on the part of the Chinese? It just seems awfully convenient. Out of this incident, they get:

1) The opportunity to get up close and personal with one of America's most sophisticated electronic surveillance platforms;

2) 24 American hostages to hold for ransom in order to obtain the extradition of Colonel Xu Junping who defected to the United States two months ago and is presently being debriefed by the Central Intelligence Agency;

3) An emergency to test what the new American president is made of;

4) A propoganda item to stir up the Chinese populace at a time when Washington is deciding whether to sell Taiwan four Aegis-equipped guided missile cruisers; and

5) An incident to use to play the victim against American "hegemony" in the region.

For this intelligence and political bonanza, China only had to give up one pilot,who, of course, may have ejected and has been found safe. Even if they did lose him, it is not as though China has the best record regarding respect for the value of human life. No doubt in their cost-benefit analysis they found that the life of one lousy fighter pilot was more than worth the recovery of an EP-3. Perhaps I am just cynical.

On a related topic, does anyone believe there are any military options here? It should be remembered that the first use of the United States Marine Corps on foreign soil was an attack on Tripoli in 1803. The reason: to destroy the U.S.S. Philadelphia that had been captured by the Barbary Pirates. Would it be possible to send in a S.E.A.L. team to destroy the plane to prevent the Chinese from obtaining any further intelligence from it? I am not advocating this potentially dangerous course of action, just wondering if it might be an option.

WN Boy pretty summed up my feelings. What I am surprised is why the aircraft decided to land in Hainan. If it could make it there, wouldn't it be able to get to somewhere in Laos or Cambodia?

Remember how Gary Powers was supposed to take his cyanide capsule? Times have changed, I guess.

If the US wanted to destroy the plane, a LA-class SSN could fire a single Tomahawk TLAM while submerged to do the job...much less messy and costly than sending an invasion force. But then, a dangerous precedent is set. We don't need another KAL-007 or Iran Air -like disaster. I think the outcome will be one of the two possibilities:

1) The US eats humble pie and gives up trying to retrieve the a/c from the Chinese

2) The Chinese return the plane as a token gesture - but with strings attached (Taiwan arms sales)

CP, that is why I floated the idea of a special forces operation. First, men attaching explosives to an aircraft are much more accurate than a cruise missile fired from hundreds of miles away. Second, a S.E.A.L. team would at least present the possiblity of freeing the aircraft's crew.

"This situation will get out of hand. It will get out of hand until it is out of control!" The Hunt for Red October

Personally I like CPDC10-30's idea of the Tomahawk, simple but effective. Of course I'm sure the American's are watching what is happening on that base with one of their KH-11 Recon Sats and is keeping close tabs on the situation, as well has having many options at their disposal.

I believe it is time Dubya shows why the American's put a Republican back in the office, flex some muscle. The Chinese wouldn't dare retaliate, they may be advancing their military, but they still cannot match the American's and Co.