Southwest said it will announce within a week that it has choosen a new city to fly to this fall.

The only clue SWA left us is that it is east of the Mississippi River.

Any guess on the city?

My guesses:

Very Likely:
Dayton, Ohio (high fares/less service)
Allentown, PA (same/near Philly)
Richmond, VA (same)
Harrisburg, PA (same)
Knoxville, TN (same)

Less likely:
Milwaukee, Wis. (but: close to MDW, Midwest Express hub)
Myrtle Beach or Charleston, SC (but: leisure destination w/small population base)
Syracuse or Rochester, NY (but: close to Buffalo)

Hopefully Stewart/Newburgh Intl. Airport in New York is in the mix for SWA.

Uhm...does anyone know why Southwest doesnt fly to GA?

How I wish....oh how I wish WN would begin service to Fresno (FAT), CA-from LAX and/or ONT.

Are there any cities left in the West that WN might consider going into, or are they as big as they are going to get out here?

I'd go with Greenville/Spartanburg or Columbia, South Carolina in that order. With great interstate highway access, GSP could easily attract traffic from US's high fare hub at Charlotte and from the northern part of the metropolitan Atlanta area, along with folks in the Asheville/Hendersonville area. If you look at a map of cities served by Southwest there's a huge gap in the area of GSP and CAE.

Someone pointed out Southwest's affinity for state capitols so Columbia may have an edge there.


DB

Southwest dosen't fly to Georgia because of Delta and Airtran at ATL, and the other Georgia cities (Savannah, Macon, Augusta) are bot big enough to support service.

I believe their next destination is either Allentown or Richmond.

All good guesses..especially Richmond and Milwaukee. Southwest's new executive team (Parker/ Barrett) recently told Aviation Week that they'd like to add at least two more cities in the Northeast soon, so Rochester (bigger population, higher median income and healthier economy than Syracuse) and Allentown or Trenton (draw from Philly, NYC) are likeliest in my view in that region.

Richmond is also a good possibility. High fares/ bad service, medium-size population base, and at the intersection of two interstates....could draw from Norfolk area to east, Charlottesville etc to west. Norfolk is bigger but not as well located, so maybe a tossup between RIC and ORF.

The presence of Midwest Express would not, IMO, likely deter WN from entering MKE. Midex does not serve BWI, and only has Skyway service to STL, both very likely destinations if WN came to MKE. Also, I don't think Midex is big enough for WN to want to avoid.

Jim

I have it on good authority that it will NOT be Colorado Springs!

Here's a thought on the Richmond-Norfolk question:

AirTran serves Newport News Williamsburg Airport, about 10 miles up I-64 from the City of Norfolk. If Southwest were to come to the Norfolk area, I bet they'd fly there instead of ORF. It's much easier to get to from Richmond because one doesn't have to traverse either of the clogged tunnels under Hampton Roads. And people in Norfolk and Virginia Beach would no doubt still use it, as they use AirTran.

Folks coming from out of town, though, might like not having to use the tunnels, and Newport News Airport would make a WN station more attractive to them. What think y'all?

Jim

This is my very first post on airliners.net so I’d better get it right. The next city will be in …… (drum roll please)……Virginia. I base this on information from “well placed sources.” Well, that and a dart board.   To MattD—FAT is going to have to wait along with COS. They will be the next western cities to get WN, but WN is racing other low fare carriers to establish a presence in the east. Don’t expect them to look west for a couple more years.

I would say ABE, but it has been circulating for years. TTN has runways that are too short for any serious flying. Good luck to whoever is chosen.

I read somewhere that CVG could be a target considering Comair's troubles. It probably won't happen, but it's an interesting possibility.

TYS
RIC
or an ATL burb!

Oh, please let it be ORF! All of us 'Southsiders' in Hampton Roads would be very grateful. DCA-ROCguy mentioned PHF across the Bay in Newport News. It's a nice new facility that could use some more traffic, but I'm not sure it would meet Southwest's criteria. From my memories of flying out of PHF, there are only four gates and no jetways. Also, while WN's operations would undoubtedly bring more traffic through PHF, I don't know that it would be enough to generate the eight departures per day that WN desires. AirTran's success (or lack thereof) at PHF might be an indication of this. Does anyone know what loads are for FL out of PHF?

Actually Savannah would be a good choice for them. It's far enough away from ATL and is close to several vacation destinations, Hilton Head and the GA Barrier Islands. Virginia has been trying for some time to get Southwest to fly into the state, even going as far as to put up a Virginia is for Lovers billboard by Love Field. Richmond does make sense and sits in an ideal place for flights. RIC is deserving of a low-fare airline. The last lowfare airline to operate flights into RIC was AirTran, and they suspended those over two years ago. Now Columbia S.C. would also be a logical choice. Other than Delta's mainline flights to ATL, the only other operators are regional carriers flying to CLT or ATL. BHM has been very good for Southwest. They get people driving 2 hours from ATL to catch a WN flight. Columbia would get the folks in Augusta no problem, especially considering that it has been downgraded to regional service by the other airlines, and their last low-fare airline was Valujet. Whatever city that gets Southwest to serve their city will be lucky indeed.

Worcester

Question for those of you more in the know about WN....I have heard that WN need to schedule at least 5 flights daily to make a new city work, then I have heard 10? Is there a magic number? Or do demographics play a different role at WN?

I don't think that FAT could support (profitably) 5,much less 10 WN flights per day without totally decimating the profitability of the rest of the jet flights(AA to DFW, UX toDEN, DL to SLC and HP to PHX, AS to SEA) and probably the loss of much of that service. MY point?..I think there are cities that want WN and believe that it will improve service/fares/etc., but in reality it may not work out that way at all.

While the central valley area has a good population base, our demographics for disposable income/ large corporate HQ's, etc. suck. Bottom line is, like your Gransmother probably said, be careful what you wish for..you just might get it.

So what if Southwest 'decimates the profitability' of the rest of the High-Fare Six Families at FAT? WN by themselves would probably offer more seat capacity to FAT than everyone else together offers now.

Let's imagine that WN entered FAT. From FAT, WN would probably serve OAK, LAX, and PHX. PHX is their biggest hub, and Fresnonians could get to a ton of places from there. The Six Families would still offer RJ and turboprop service to their hubs, so Fresnonians wouldn't lose the opportunity to pay inflated fares to all the places Southwest doesn't fly.

The Six Families like their extortion-fares feed from the small and medium markets. They'll take whatever they cang get, whether there's enough of it to fill four A320's a day or four Beechcraft 1900's. Case in point is Islip/ Long Island, which isnt' quite big enough to consistently support Six Families jet service. After Southwest entered, the Six Families ended remaining narrowbody-jet service (except for Delta Express). But there is still turboprop and RJ service to Six Families hubs, just so that Lon-Ghilanders can pay inflated fares to get to all those places WN doesn't fly. Check the timetables.

This "Southwest hurts competition" argument because it supplants a lot of Six Families service at smaller medium-size airports is completely bogus. BO-GUS.

Jim

I wish WN would come to MSP. They are the only major airline not flying here.

Where it WILL NOT BE:

1.) Worcester, MA - Sorry Zrs70. WN serves BDL, MHT, and PVD, all of which are a 1 hour drive from Worcester
2.) Allentown, PA - There is no terminal space avail.

Where it CAN BE:
1.) Atlanta - Peachtree DeKalb. I think people in ATL might like Delta's selection, but certainly not their prices (over $400 for Restricted Economy for ATL-SAV-ATL)
2.) Trenton - Underserved market (only Shuttle America), close to PHL and NYC Metro Area, and its 6006 ft runway could handle 737s, as I have taken off in a fully loaded 777 from BOS to LHR on 6000 ft of runway, so a 733 or 735 should be no problem.
3.) Richmond - Close to the Washington area, but not bad for Norfolk area too.

Jeff

"Fresnonians"??? That one made me laugh.

BTW, I happen to agree that other flights won't be decimated if WN flew to FAT. WN generally increases all traffic, and doesn't necessarily take it away from other airlines.

Whatever the new city is, lets hope it serves ISP!

I think Fresnonians are the race on Star Trek Deep Space Nine who have big ears and like to make money. :+)

Jim

Out of all the cities mentioned, I think that RIC is the best choice. Like everyone has said, it's close to DC and Norfolk is close by. I like MKE too, and Midwest Express isn't big enough to scare WN away. MSP is out of the question, with Northwest's hub there they will not have a chance.

Gabe

I think it would be worthy for WN to go to ABE, and invest some money in there and lull out some users of PHL, its only an hour drive and I think it has potential

TTN will almost undoubtedly be out, because have you seen the pax terminal there? its tiny-2 jetways I think...WN would need more room, the interior isnt that big either...

I would love to see ABE as the next destination, they could put a dent into US to SoFla and other loaded markets from there...

Greg

They're Fresnans, guys.  
WN will not harm the other competition out of FAT. The big six already operate a very large number of flights to LAX and SFO, and FAT flyers have the same desire for direct flights that others have. SEA, SLC, LAS, DFW, and others will not be affected. For the years that AA has flown into FAT, almost all of the flights to DFW have been full at loads upwards of 75%.
If WN were to fly out of FAT to LAX or even the rest of the southwest, it would only force the big six to either increase frequency or reduce the fares they have gouged the citizens with for 30 years, not to mention introduce new routes.

I sincerely believe that FAT could support five WN flights. They have the facilities, the know-how and they are building a beautiful new facility expected to be completed within the year.

Fresno, for whatever reason has attracted over 1,000 new jobs in less than 1 year and the growth isn't expected to stop any time soon. The population is over 400,000 and growing. In 20 years, the population within the city limits will be around 700,000 and it is my belief that airlines should get in on what is going on early.

Fresno is ready for Southwest.  

"MSP is out of the question, with Northwest's hub there they will not have a chance."

They serve DTW, so why not MSP?

Boy, you Fresnoids don’t give up! But when it comes to WN, that’s a good thing. While on first glance FAT would seem to be a good fit - overpriced, underserved, 1 million people within an hour drive - those factors are actually working against you. You are “low hanging fruit” to borrow a phrase from schedule planning. You’re ripe for the plucking now, and will be for years to come. No other low fare carriers are setting up shop out west so there is no hurry. The east is a different story. WN needs to claim territory as quickly as possible before others do. JetBlue is opening a new city every 5 weeks! Anyway, keep up the drum beat. WN will come, it's just going to take awhile.

TTN would be awesome! Way to maximize traffic out of under-served airports. I have a feeling RIC is likely, as that will bulk up WN's meager midatlantic presence, now only at Baltimore and Raleigh.

Maybe Rochester, that would be great for upstate, but miserable for Syracuse  

I would really like to se DSM with WN service... However, due to geographical bias and it's somewhat close proximity to larger cities such as Omaha and Kansas City (who already have WN service), I would seriously doubt it. The same goes for ICT, they probably need the service even more than DSM does. Both cities are just wishful thinking on my part...  

The TRUE candidates:

RIC - High fares

GRR - Why not? A large booming MSA population of 1,000,000+. I don't think GRR has the gate space though.

GSO or GSP

Southwest is till in talks with GSO.... even with Raleigh not too far away, Greensboro is quite a draw with sporting events, tons of college kids, the furniture market, and the existing companies. Its a large area and they would compete well.

They should fly to SJU. Once TWA is gone the fares will continue to sky roket with only AA and CO in the game.

My guess is ORF. Both ORF and RIC are currently in the process of expanding their respective facilites. There was some info on the RIC airport expansion at

http://www.ricexpansion.com

It looks like right now there is only 1 vacant gate at RIC. I don't think Southwest would start new service with just one gate. They usually get at least 2. Somewhere on the above site was a news story that was titled "More gates=more competition" or something like that, and it mentioned that the one available gate at RIC would be perfect for a regional carrier, so I'm not sure how big it is. (I got the impression it was only big enough to handle a regional jet, but I could be wrong.)

RIC is planning on adding a 7 gate concourse but I don't think the new gates will be ready until late summer of 2002 and whatever new city Southwest picks, they are intending to start service there this fall. So if Southwest were to pick RIC, where would they get the gates?

ORF is also in the middle of a big expansion project that will include a new arrivals terminal with 5 baggage carousels and a 9 story parking garage. Both of these are expected to be completed in mid 2002. Once the new arrivals terminal opens, the 2 existing baggage carousels in the main terminal will be dismantled and that area is supposed to be converted into additional ticket counter space.

HOWEVER, (And this is why I would pick ORF over RIC) according to ORF's website the current gates are not expected to reach capacity until sometime after 2015, so that would lead me to believe that Southwest could get gates immediately - they'd just have to deal with limited ticket counter space until ORF's expansion project is completed in about a year.

Since Southwest would probably only start out with about 10-12 flights a day, I don't think they'd need that much ticket counter space anyway. If the intial flights did well, they could add more flights and get additional ticket counter space as ORF's expansion projects are completed.

BTW, maybe someone familiar with ORF could answer a question. If you look at ORF's passenger acitivity for the past 10 years, you'll notice that in 1994 there was a huge (percentage-wise) increase in passenger activity. It went from under 3 million to 3.4 million. The following year, however, traffic was way down again and for 2000, passengers totals were just over 3 million. About 3,053,000, which is still about 400,000 fewer passengers than the airport had in 1994. So why was there a huge increase in passenger activity in 1994 and why did traffic fall off in subsequent years?

LoneStarMike

OK, so we found out one thing during this topic: no one knows for sure. Holes were found in just about every destination. It could be RIC, ABE, ROC, or even somewhere that no one guessed. Let's wait and see, then we will know for sure.

Well, when they chose Hartford as a destination, it was rumored that Allentown finished a close second in the running.
Greensboro-Spartanburg is crying out for new service since CO Lite left, so WN could try their hands in that market.

Do you mean Greensboro and Spartanburg, or Greenville-Spartanburg. I knew Greensboro (Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem) had the CO lite hub 3 years ago. I wasn't aware that Greenville-Spartanburg had one too.

I'm not convinced that by having just 1 gate availbale, SW would pass up on a city. Especially if there are concrete plans for expansion. Here in PVD, SW came and took the last gate available and quickly expanded from 12 fpd to 18! 18 fpd off one gate was hell, but they made it work. Obviously the airport corporation recognized this immediately and started construction on a 4-gate expansion. Now SW has 3 of those 4 gates, for a total of 4, and 30 fpd.

So basically, RIC only needs one gate. I'm not saying SW will go balls-to-the-wall off that one gate, but they should consider themselves at an advantage that they already have expansion in mind.

To DeltAirlines:

PDK would seem to be a logical choice for WN in Atlanta, but the nimbys will not allow pax service into pdk. Only non scheduled service is allowed. The very loud Lears and Falcons are OK but not the Next Gen 737. Same is true out in Gwinnett Co. That airport was expanded I think back in the early 80's to allow 737 ops. Rumor has it some outfit from Texas was putting up some of the money. Ofcourse the nimbys with some muscle from Big D put an end to scheduled service at that airport.

The next closest airports are Athens and Macon.

I had asked earlier in this thread if anyone knew why ORF's passenger traffic jumped in 1994, then fell off in 1995 and has yet to achieve levels of six years ago. I asked on another board and apparently the jump was caused by CAL Lite setting up shop at ORF and subsequently pulling out. That makes sense. Apparently CAL Lite had 28 or 29 departures a day from ORF at its peak. Even though CAL Lite may not have been a financial success for Continental, the passenger figures for 1994 certainly show that ORF would support a low-fare carrier should one return.

Regarding the rumors about CVG, it would initially make sense since Delta is having trouble with Comair, but then again, that seems a little devious for Southwest. I mean, they don't really have a reputation for playing hardball or using dirty tricks like some other AAirlines. But what about DAY? Isn't there a whole unused concourse there that used to be occupied by Piedmont when they operated a hub from there. I think Heartland was going to use that space but now Heartland is history, or at least is not going to be inaugurating service as soon as they initially planned. If Southwest picked DAY they could probably steal a lot of CVG passengers without actually having to begin service there.

Here's another little interesting (to me) tidbit. Go over to http://www.airports.org and look at the preliminary rankings for 2000 in terms of passengers. Look at all the airports in the 100-200 range (100th busiest to 200th busiest airports in the world.) Of those airports which are in the US - and there are a lot of them- Southwest flies to every single one of them except 3. #130 MKE, #146, RSW, and #200 ORF. (DISCLAIMER: I don't think all airports submit figures to airports.org, though, as I could find no info on airports such as PVD, LBB, AMA, HRL, CRP, etc.)

Anyway, I can't wait to see what Southwest's decision will be.

LoneStarMike

Colorado Springs would be a good choice, being close enough to DEN. (We all know it will be a cold day in hell when SW returns to DEN.)

My top choices are based on what has been said.
1. Daytona to pick up on Comair traffic without really going head to head in competition.
2. Cincinnati to up against Delta with the Comair strike, American Airlines are not taking up TWA leases on this airport.
3. Norfolk has a larger population than Richmond, there is Airtran at Newport News close to Norfolk.
4. Richmond close to Washington and people could travel to Richard from Norfolk.

They had originally not planned to open a new city this year and they have changed their mind.

Which cities would they start flying to?

east cost - MCO, BWI, MDW
midwest - BWI, MDW, MCI

I just have to keep beating a dead horse.

Fresno:

I still think it could work. All of the formulas for a Southwest city are present.

Why not Southwest between FAT-LAX/LAS/PHX?

There is a huge amount of road traffic between the LA area and the San Joaquin Valley (there are a lot of people living on SR 99 that can be served (Tulare in the south and Merced in the north, and everything in between). Plus, LAS is a popular spot for the folks of Fresno to visit. As the crow flies, it's only about 250 miles or so, but because of the way the roads are laied out, driving to Vegas is about 7 to 8 hours, nearly 400 miles. As far as I know, Allegiant Air is the only airline offering service to LAS, with it's whopping one round trip daily. Previously, WinAir (albeit briefly) and Morris Air all flew FAT-LAS. And it went really well.

The folks of Fresno are tired of being gouged with high fares, small prop planes, and limited selection. I'm tired of the 275 mile drive (I have a lot of family in Fresno) And anytime a new airline starts service in Fresno, it's very big news.
PHX would be great to offer access to the rest of the WN system.

Finally, if PSA was able to make LAX-FAT service work with MD-80's back in the 1980's, why couldn't Southwest do it now? There has been a large amount of growth in Fresno and the other surrounding counties since then. Let's hear it for Southwest in FAT.

I wonder if that new terminal they are constructing at FAT is an effort to lure WN (or someone else) in?
Cuz I've seen the models of what it's going to look like and it is definitely overkill for a SAAB 340 or a CRJ. They definitely have 717 and larger aircraft in mind.

#1 RIC
Very easy interstate highway access, state capital, less than 2 hour drive from Washington or Norfolk. Prince William, Stafford Counties, and also Fredericksburg,VA areas are experiencing a constant explosion in growth(population nearing 500,000). These areas are about 1 hour north of RIC and anyone trying to reach BWI to fly SWA from these far south DC suburbs would be better of driving to RIC.
Also, when NW Airlink announced it was starting service into CHO the VA governor said he was sure there would be more exciting 'airline' news in the future...

#2 ORF
A huge population base in the Tidewater area, the above governors statement, and also a huge military base.

#3 GSP
Within driving distance of Columbia, Charlotte, and Asheville. As DB777 stated it is not too far from the northern Atanta suburbs(Gwinnett County). Also GSP has become an area attracting alot of manufacturing jobs lately.

As you can see I strongly believe SWA is coming to VA. A recent study of liscense plates at BWI showed almost 20% of the autos in the long term parking at BWI had Virginia plates. I'm sure alot of those people were flying Southwest.

Whatever happened to Colorado Springs?

The only cities Southwest would even consider in the state of Georgia are Savannah and Augusta. There have been attempts in the past to start scheduled service out of several Atlanta area airports (PDK, FTY, Brisco Field in Lawrenceville, Tara Field), and everytime, local opposition has derailed these plans. Augusta would benefit because it is far enough away from ATL, like BHM is, and the only jet service is by ASA and Comair (if they ever fly again). I already explained SAV's ideals in an earlier post. It has also been attributed to Herb the statement, "It'll be a cold day in Hell before we fly into Atlanta." So for all of us Atlantans wanting cheap fares to places not flown by AirTran and Vanguard, we've got to drive 2 hours west to BHM. If Southwest starts flying out of GSP or CAE, they will definitely get their share of pax from North Georgia, whose only other choice is to fly to a hub airport on a regional airline or drive in the mad Atlanta traffic to the airport.

In the FWIW category - this may be a clue; then again, it may just be wishful thinking on Virginia's part, but there was an interesting comment made in this article in the Virginia Pilot back in February.

Leaders are skeptical of regional airport plan
02/07/2001
http://www.pilotonline.com/business/bz0207air.html

"Wiegand said that Virginia may soon benefit from Southwest as well. He said he expects the airline to announce in the next six months that it will begin flying out of Norfolk, Newport News or Richmond."

LoneStarMike

Anyone have any news?