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na
Topic Author
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Joined: Sun Dec 12, 1999 3:52 am

Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:16 am

A bit of educated speculation.

When do you think certain common airliner types will disappear from the skies?

In 5 years time I think you wont see the following aircraft anymore, at least not in Europe:
737 Classic (pax, only some charter planes remaining)
737-600
757-200 (pax)
742 (F)
A300 (pax)
DC-10 (F)
A310 (pax and F)
Avrojet

In 10 years time these will be extremely rare or completely gone:
MD-11 (F)
737 Classic (F)
757-200 (F)
757-300
767-200 (F)
767-300 (pax)
777-200"A"
777-300
747SP (VIP)
744 (pax, only some charter planes remaining)
744 (BCF)
A318
A340-300
A340-600
ERJ145
ERJ170
Tu-204

In 15 years you wont see these anymore in regular service, at least not in Europe:
767 (F)
777-200ER
744 (last charter planes and VIP)
A300 (F)
 
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hvusslax
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Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:33 am

FI will be flying their 757-200s at least into the mid 2020s so it will be more than five years until they will be completely gone from Europe.
 
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N14AZ
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Joined: Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:19 pm

Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Aug 31, 2016 11:40 am

na wrote:
A bit of educated speculation.

When do you think certain common airliner types will disappear from the skies?

In 5 years time I think you wont see the following aircraft anymore, at least not in Europe:
737 Classic (pax, only some charter planes remaining)

Interesting that you didn't mention the 737 Jurassic. But you are correct, I checked (at least for Germany) and the last time a 737-200 landed in Germany was in 2014 (private VP-CAQ, Jet Connections). The Aviogenex 737-200 seems to be out of operation. So, it's correct, game-over for the 737 Jurrasic, at least in Europe, as you said.
 
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SRQKEF
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Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2011 7:10 pm

Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Aug 31, 2016 1:16 pm

As hvusslax said, the 757 has a long life ahead of it with FI.

I think the 777As might be a candidate for 5 years rather than 10, there are none in Europe already except for BA 772s. Also, I fear the 343 might not live another decade in Europe. If we also include North America, it could well be the iconic MD80 will be largely gone in the next 5 years. I think both the 717 and MD90 have a longer future with DL and HA however.

regards!
Sveinn :)
 
YYZSpotter1991
Posts: 136
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 11:32 pm

Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Sep 07, 2016 2:40 am

The A318s will most likely be out no later than 10 years from now.
 
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RRTrent
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Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:13 am

I think BA will still have the 744 in 2026, maybe LH too. Smaller fleets than today of course, but they may still be around.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:12 am

I for one think the 757-200 will be mostly gone within the next 10 to 15 years. Judging by the amount of A321s, A321NEOs, 737-900s and 737-9s ordered by US airlines, I doubt it will be around on anything other than the longest routes. For the big 3, these new types on order will outnumber the 757-200 fleet by 1.65:1 once delivered.

YYZSpotter1991 wrote:
The A318s will most likely be out no later than 10 years from now.


I disagree, they will still be around as business jets. I also doubt Air France or BA will be done with them in 10 years.

Air France hasn't ordered any replacements, and probably won't do so for a while. Even so, most of the A319s and A321s are older and would need replacement before the A318s.

British Airways, I can't really see what alternative they have. Ordering a subfleet of just 2 C-series is out of the picture, and the future narrowbody fleet will consist of A320CEOs and NEOs. Besides, they are only 7 years old and have relatively few cycles.
 
Alexdk
Posts: 242
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Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Wed Sep 07, 2016 10:23 am

Talking about EU alone, Blue Air and Jet2 will definitely have 737C in 5 years.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Aircraft type disappearance in 5, 10 and 15 years

Sat Sep 24, 2016 8:56 am

I'm surprised nobody mentioned the 717 as it's a quickly disappearing aircraft. Volotea is the only European airline left to fly them, but they're being replaced by A319's. I think in 5 years the 717 will be history.

Also the Fokker F-70 and F-100 are not as common as they used to be. KLM Cityhopper has retired all of it's F-100's and is phasing out it's last F-70's. In 5 years Fokker will be no more than a memory.

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