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Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:25 pm
by toxtethogrady
And tries to buy American.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 7:46 pm
by seabosdca
Airframe OEM edition:

Airbus:
- A320neo/A321neo kinks will be fully worked out. Al-Baker will watch helplessly as the competition enjoys better fuel burn and range. Limited sales purely because of availability and long backlog -- the product will maintain its healthy market position.
- One more schedule slip, driven by RR, on the A330neo. EIS will happen mid 2018.
- A350-900 sales healthy; A330-900 sales marginal at best.
- A350-1000 EIS on schedule.
- No further A380 sales and increased chatter by year-end about closing the line. The giant Emirates replacement order that will keep the line going for a few more years won't happen until the very last second in 2019.

Boeing:
- 737 MAX 8 EIS on schedule but with a minor (~1%) fuel burn delta from spec. Continued healthy MAX 8 sales.
- 737 MAX 10, a simple stretch of the 9, launched toward the end of the year after very few 9 sales occur during the year. It won't compete with the A321neo on range but it will on per-seat economics.
- Still smoke but no fire on anything MOM.
- At the new sharply reduced production rates, 777 transition production sells out, purely on top-up orders. Late in the year, the 777X sales machine cranks into gear, and the first meaningful 777X discounts become available. 777X sales are low but there is a "camel's nose" sale to at least one major new customer.
- 787 sales continue at a reasonable but not breakneck pace, all -9s and -10s. No new widebody variants.
- 747-8 endgame becomes clearer as UPS orders provide exactly the bridge needed to AF1. No additional orders, aside from maybe a top-up or two, and it starts to be obvious that the line will close in 2020. No white tails get sold and they continue to be a billion-dollar annoyance on the OEM's balance sheet.

Bombardier:
- C-series production and entry into service continues smoothly. At least one major carrier places a large CS300 order and the CS300's future seems assured. But the CS100 looks increasingly like a mistake.
- CS500 chatter intensifies but there is still no launch, for lack of capital. (But watch out in 2018.)
- The CRJ and Q400 continue to flail. We hear a lot of rumors about ending CRJ production but no official decision.

Embraer:
- A trickle of near-term E175 sales to US regionals, limited by lack of action on scope.
- A trickle of near-term E190/E195 sales abroad.
- Continued E2 development, possibly subject to minor delays. E190/E2 will go smoothly. E195/E2 may have some issues but that won't really register outside the company until 2018.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:06 pm
by LazarosK
A3 orders A320 Neo family for their fleet renewal plan. Installs WiFi on fleet and new routes. Maybe they will also look into longhaul.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:56 pm
by Italianflyer
I'm not as optimistic as you all :/

* no mergers in the US or Canada
* tough scrutiny of ATIs and JVIs coming from all sides, not just the US
* major currency fluctuations in N.America, Europe and Asia damage profits
* due to the above, oil prices are all over the freaking place. OPEC threatening to kill the petrodollar and price in RMB
* a US small regional winds down flying ops and focuses on ground handling
* the hammer comes down on several old EU legacy carriers who will be fighting for survival without a public cash infusion. Trans-national ownership becomes a political football.
* the only players who stay in the US-Cuba market are the ones who can afford to bleed the longest. Any ROI is at least a decade out...and that's assuming a radical change of policy happens on the island.
* the ME3 downsize to meet the market. Prestige (and revenge) flying is pruned.
* as a whole the industry breaks even or posts a modest loss thanks to further unbundling, up selling, etc.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:09 pm
by ahj2000
Barry Obama starts an airline with Biden to have the legacy live on :D

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:13 pm
by flymco753
In 2017 I predict that NK announces a crew and maintenance base at MCO, they're not done expanding service here. Also I predict an ME3 carrier gives DTW a wink for potential service and actually acts to it.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:27 pm
by guillelds
tysmith95 wrote:
Airbus discontinues the Airbus A380


Why so? Airbus hasnt either discounted their A318 which so far has been a total fraud in terms of sales. So why the A380?

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:31 pm
by guillelds
American carries currently flying to Cuba will suffer a strong set up in their expansion due to DT's menaces

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:34 pm
by guillelds
Avianca finally anounces Frankfurt and Paris

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:41 pm
by WIederling
RickNRoll wrote:
tysmith95 wrote:
Airbus discontinues the Airbus A380

Major order for A380. :)


A380-800 NEO announced.
A380-900 ( incl. uptodate engine ) offered.
A350-<flat-eight> offered and bought by 10 blue chip carriers :-)

Boeing will offer A 748SP to allow replacement of the SOFIA Airframe.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:47 pm
by qcpilotxf
guillelds wrote:
tysmith95 wrote:
Airbus discontinues the Airbus A380


Why so? Airbus hasnt either discounted their A318 which so far has been a total fraud in terms of sales. So why the A380?


The A318 is a member of an in-production line of aircraft, theoretically everything is already in place to building a new A318 tomorrow is someone ordered one. if no one orders an A380 then its expensive to keep the equipment in place idle

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:52 pm
by adamh8297
EK adds DXB-DEN
AV adds BOG-BOS
DY announces at least LGW/OSL-BWI/SEA/ORD for S18
TP adds LIS-ORD for S18
B6 announces MSP-BOS/FLL
HU announces PEK-MIA

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 10:57 pm
by ACCS300
Virgin America brand disappears completely and Alaska keeps not a single remnant of their identity.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:12 pm
by bill142
Emirates Orders 500 A320neo and 500 737Max just to get in the headlines.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 12:21 am
by pietpaflsun
Allegiant Airlines will have a major safety event leading to the grounding of the airline. The airline will return to the skies after eliminating all MD-80's and flying an Airbus only fleet and a new name operating a much reduced schedule. The surviving airline will only provide service from one focus city "Las Vegas". After four months of depressed traffic, Spirit will pick up the pieces and absorb it into their system.

Transatlantic traffic will drop by 30% in the first half of 2017. This will be caused by tremendous terrorist instability in Europe. All 757's to Europe operated by US carriers will be grounded and the thin routes operated by them eliminated. This will create stronger security presence at the major European capitals.

Airline stocks will drop 80% due to $80 per barrel oil and worldwide terror.

Boeing will receive 400 orders for the Boeing 747-800 as major airframe stress cracks are discovered in the A380's wings cutting life expectancy.

Iran Air will never take delivery of any Boeing commercial aircraft.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 2:40 am
by ER757
The Paris Airshow will be a disappointment for anyone expecting large orders of wide body jets
Either CI or SQ (maybe both) will order the 748-F thus giving the Queen a temporary stay of execution
The deal between Iran Air and Boeing gets nixed
One or more of the ME3 cancel some of their current orders with Boeing and/or Airbus as expected growth fails to materialize
QF orders the 779
NH orders a few more A380's (up to five)

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:35 am
by BobPatterson
IPF will not mention Delta or its subsidiaries for an entire year.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2016 3:39 am
by ehaase
Stock market crashes in October 2017, sending economy into deep recession. Reduced travel forces airlines to send hundreds of 757's, MD-88's, MD-90's, and old 320's to the desert.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 7:38 pm
by dc10lover
B6 wll take over all of G4's routes out of LAS. Especially the Bellingham, Washington - Las Vegas route.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Thu Dec 22, 2016 8:28 pm
by PatrickZ80
Ryanair will start flights to Reykjavik from several of their hubs in Europe.
Norwegian will announce more US destinations and their first Canadian destination.
TUI Airlines Netherlands will (for the second time) announce their first long haul destination from Eindhoven.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:38 am
by Freshside3
georgiabill wrote:
Best wishes to everyone for a happy and prosperous 2017.
UA to announce and start service to another Chinese city from SFO
UA to order 6-10 additional 77W'S to be based at EWR
AA exercises options on additional 789'S and speeds up 767 retirements
DL announces intentions to take 787-10'S They will become DL'S primary trans atlantic aircraft
DL to expand international operations from BOS announce BOS-ATH seasonal service, BOS- BCN seasonal service
KE announces ICN-BOS service 4 weekly with 789'S starting Sept of 2017
WN adds 1 daily MHT-MDW and restarts MHT-DEN
AS/VX announce additional new routes and cities. New cities will be PIT from SEA and SFO, CLE from SEA and LAX


UA's New Chinese city will either be SZX or CAN....
No surprise on BOS-ATH on DL............BOS and ORD are the two US cities on ATH airport's "wish list".....DL is the only carrier in a position to do BOS-ATH
Not enough BCN from the U.S.A. in general...so no surprise there, either.
Not enough PIT, plus PIT wants a SEA trip in the worst way. AS is a natural fit.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 1:27 am
by Freshside3
Record number of denied boardings on LHR trips from the USA. Airlines have been caught up in the "Brexit" hysteria, and cut back too many of the flights to secondary UK cities----forcing more people to connect via LHR.
More US airports removing their moving sidewalks, due to injuries, and maintenance costs.
Israel offering more incentives for carriers to fly into the new Eilat/Ramon airport, since there are few carriers currently showing interest.
AS going back into the Far East Russia markets again. On the domestic front, adding SEA-ICT, as well as SEA-PIT.
F9 declaring Chapter 11.
A3 taking advantage of the new PAS airport facilities, and having a nonstop to LHR.
One of the large US carriers adding ACY, and making it a viable connection with its respective hub.
DL adding SLC-SGF; dropping SEA-PHX.
UA will not do well with the "Basic Economy" service, in fact, the backlash will get worse than it is now....will discontinue that product in the Summer.
AA bringing back OAK-ORD.
BNA getting a Europe flight, of some sort.
YOW/YEG getting more direct charters to Europe.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 1:38 am
by Freshside3
LazarosK wrote:
A3 orders A320 Neo family for their fleet renewal plan. Installs WiFi on fleet and new routes. Maybe they will also look into longhaul.

It certainly could be possible. If RwandAir can get some long-haul planes, A3 certainly can(though so far, they seem to really not show any interest). ORD/BOS from ATH if no US carrier comes to the plate. Plus JNB......BOM, BKK, ICN, etc......and especially MEL with a stop somewhere in Asia.

Maybe Boeing should offer them some kind of special "sweetheart deal" on the 747-8 since it is not currently selling all that great.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:16 pm
by vhtje
Due to passenger revolt, BA starts to wind back some of the service cuts they have made.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:56 pm
by dc10lover
I wish B6 would purchase F9 and build a strong hub in Denver.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:01 pm
by dc10lover
Remember JetBlue invested in JetSuiteX? With all of the Embraer 135's added to the fleet, they will do more West Coast flying.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 4:30 pm
by atypical
Emirates will announce it has taken a minority stake in all other airlines. Later on in the year Tim Clark becomes visibly angry when laughter interrupts his denial that Emirates has ever taken any government subsidies.

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2016 5:21 pm
by readytotaxi
Norwegian announces Africa service, based in Nairobi and serving the major African capitals.
A series of dreadful terrorist events in Europe in the early spring sees the decline of TALT travel by 50%.
A type of bird flu which can be transmitted to humans appears in China.
I finally manage the art of making a souffle. :spin:

Re: Predictions/Rumors for 2017

Posted: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:48 pm
by anrec80
All of the remaining 3-3-3 777s going 3-4-3 in Y, including CX and SQ.