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ryanrap1
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TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 6:32 pm

Good Afternoon All,

I know it is probably a day or so too early to tell, but I am assuming that the airlines are going to issue some type of flexible travel for Texas/ LA airports. First of all, I hope not as much rain occurs as planned, and that everyone stays safe. However, question for the forum is: I am flying from SAT to MCO a week from today via HOU. The weather is suppose to be bad(rain/wind) through the weekend into early next week. If they do allow the flexible travel option, would it be wise to call and ask to be rerouted to an airport other than HOU? Just kind of wanting to plan ahead; as flights will probably sell out.

Any advise or opinions you may have are greatly appreciated.

Hope everyone has a safe weekend that may be affected by upcoming gulf-storm.
 
tcfc424
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 7:22 pm

The prime time for flight disruptions will be late Thursday night through Sunday evening. By this time next week, all operations (In Texas...MCO could be a whole other story if this storm stays together and tracks that way...) should be back to normal. My concern is flying out of AUS Sunday night after 7pm and needing to be in ONT by 8am Monday.
 
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mikelive
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:33 pm

I expect my weekend in the WN Res Center is going to be a very rough one. We're expecting to be on the edge of the storm's winds and rain with rainfall amounts to 2-3 inches in metro SAT with higher amounts towards HOU. HOU and CRP could see 10 inches or more from what I've read and yet the storm track is still uncertain as of this moment. Either way, it's going to be ugly.
 
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mikelive
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:38 pm

ryanrap1 wrote:
The weather is suppose to be bad(rain/wind) through the weekend into early next week. If they do allow the flexible travel option, would it be wise to call and ask to be rerouted to an airport other than HOU? Just kind of wanting to plan ahead; as flights will probably sell out.


Hi, Ryan -

It sounds like you're flying either WN or UA. Once we (WN) issue a travel waiver, you are free to rebook between the same city pairs as you wish to do so. We may - in certain situations - allow you to change your city pairs to a co-terminal in the same geographic area (like EWR/LGA/ISP) if the availability is there. In your situation - if flying WN - you can be rerouted via a different connecting city while still departing from SAT and arriving in MCO. Of course, if you do it now prior to any waivers being issued, you'd most likely have to pay the fare difference. I suspect that waivers will start going out on Thursday for SAT, HOU, and CRP covering the weekend. Not sure if anything will be issued for MCO or TPA though.

Hope this helps.

-- Mikey (WN Res Agent)
 
ScottB
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 8:43 pm

ryanrap1 wrote:
First of all, I hope not as much rain occurs as planned, and that everyone stays safe. However, question for the forum is: I am flying from SAT to MCO a week from today via HOU. The weather is suppose to be bad(rain/wind) through the weekend into early next week. If they do allow the flexible travel option, would it be wise to call and ask to be rerouted to an airport other than HOU?


Given that the predictions are for the storm to stall out over the Texas Gulf Coast, it's probably wise to monitor the situation and keep an eye out for travel advisories... but while a foot of rain is crippling for virtually any city, that sort of event is common enough in Houston that most infrastructure (like the airports) is clear within a day or so. Even if you do manage to reschedule, the effect of the operational disruption on the flow of flights might make it difficult to reliably make a connection. There is a non-stop so rebooking to that might remove a variable from the equation.
 
Wingtips56
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:11 pm

AA has already published waivers, so the others should as well. AA's covers the coast as well as inland points, including AUS and SAT.
Worked for WestAir, Apollo Airways, Desert Pacific, Western, AirCal and American Airlines (Retired). Flight Memory: 181 airports, 92 airlines, 78 a/c types, 403 routes, 58 countries (by air), 6 continents. 1,119,414 passenger miles.

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Judge1310
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 9:42 pm

UA has issued a Travel Waiver for AUS, BRO, CLL, CRP, HRL, IAH, MFE, and SAT from Aug 25-27. Good luck!
 
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11725Flyer
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:38 pm

Watching the Weather Channel right now. Up to 2+ feet of rain is predicted for parts of the Houston area.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Wed Aug 23, 2017 11:50 pm

The wind won't be much of an issue (no worse than a mild category 1, if that).....but the rain. My hometown of Victoria is slated to get a LOT of rain. That is the biggest issue with these storms. There will definitely be flooding along the coast (probably up to SAT/AUS area and over to Houston. All you can do is stay on high ground until it runs off.
Whatever
 
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TWA772LR
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:12 am

This storms potential is being related to what we saw in TS Alison back in 2001. Thankfully flood control has improved vastly since then.

As far as IAH and HOU are concerned, HOU is pretty low lying, if anything bad were to happen to the airports from the rain, it would be HOU. At IAH, the worst thing that would happen is the underground train floods, which happened during Ike in 2008; the airfield and buildings will fair well.
When wasn't America great?


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mikelive
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:13 am

As a follow-up, WN published waivers for SAT, HOU, CRP, AUS, and HRL for Friday through Sunday. They had them out by 1800 last night.
 
tcfc424
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:17 pm

Airlines tend to preemptively cancel flights that will be affected by weather. While rain is going to be the main threat, will the associated thunderstorms (lightning especially) prompt a similar set of preemptive cancellations? I moved my AA flight from AUS up to 2:30 pm on Sunday from 7:50 pm. It gives me more opportunities to get out...but not if they cancel a few DFW trips.
 
boeing773er
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Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 1:56 pm

With Tropical Storm (possible hurricane) Harvey making landfall tomorrow night in Texas, will there be an impact on flights out of the Houston area?

Could this possibly be a major disruption to the UA and WN system?
Work Hard, Fly Right.
 
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sudenmorsian
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:14 pm

Harvey has been strengthening quickly since early this morning, and looks likely to reach hurricane intensity within the next 12 hours or so. The next advisory by the National Hurricane Center (issued at 10:00 am CDT) will likely bring the landfall intensity forecast up by quite a bit. The atmospheric conditions and the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico will provide conditions favorable for intensification for Harvey right up to landfall.

While the current landfall forecast is for Harvey to make landfall near Corpus Cristi, Harvey is expected to stall over Texas following landfall, with heavy rains forecasted for much of southern Texas. In my opinion, Houston will quite likely have a disruption in air-service from Harvey. Below is the current National Weather Service rainfall forecast from the storm:

Image
HPN · NYC
 
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litz
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:41 pm

This thing may now be a major hurricane when it hits land ... it's fairly safe to presume there's going to be quite an impact on Houston, the very least of which is going to be monsoon levels of rainfall (10-20 inches).

It's not likely to impact Houston directly, but it may well hit close enough that winds are going to be an issue, too.
 
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mikelive
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:42 pm

WN has cancelled all flights into and out of HRL and CRP on Saturday into Sunday at 1200.
 
DfwRevolution
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:13 pm

litz wrote:
This thing may now be a major hurricane when it hits land ... it's fairly safe to presume there's going to be quite an impact on Houston, the very least of which is going to be monsoon levels of rainfall (10-20 inches).

It's not likely to impact Houston directly, but it may well hit close enough that winds are going to be an issue, too.


Unfortunately, Houston would probably fare better if the storm did impact head-on and just marched its way inland. The current forecast shows the storm walking its way up the Texas coast such that Houston will receive rain for days. That's pretty much the worst-case scenario for urban flooding.
I have a three post per topic limit. You're welcome to have the last word.
 
MIAFLLPBIFlyer
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:15 pm

This is going to be a REALLY bad storm because it's forecast to move so slowly - almost unprecedented for a major storm in the US at least in the last 50 years. Expect lots of delays and cancellations. Not just Houston's airports, but Corpus Christi, Harlingen, McAllen and maybe some others I'd expect to close or at least have SEVERE delays.
 
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sudenmorsian
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:43 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
This is going to be a REALLY bad storm because it's forecast to move so slowly - almost unprecedented for a major storm in the US at least in the last 50 years. Expect lots of delays and cancellations. Not just Houston's airports, but Corpus Christi, Harlingen, McAllen and maybe some others I'd expect to close or at least have SEVERE delays.


In many ways, Harvey reminds me of Tropical Storm Alison which stalled over Houston in 2001; both storms remained over Texas due to a break down in the atmospheric steering currents which would normally carry them away. Though of course Harvey will be much stronger than Alison at landfall in a different part of the state.

For the most up to date information regarding Harvey, I would recommend the National Hurricane Center's website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
HPN · NYC
 
Jetty
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:23 pm

I'd advise anyone who wants to reach Houston tomorrow to fly KL.
 
ImperialEagle
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:55 pm

The way Houston tends to flood in a simple thunderstorm, I advise people NOT to even go there! The "Tornado Channel" is already screaming doom and gloom with at least a two-foot rainfall. Irregardless, the storm will be nasty for all along it's path.
"If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough!"
 
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william
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:59 pm

High pressure trumps low pressure, and since this is summer in Texas, their is a high pressure sitting out west thats not going to let the hurricane far inland. Anybody's guess how far inland it comes and turns NE. Computers have been all over with this hurricane,so I don't trust them. They are saying the eye of hte storm will not reach I-10 between SAT and HOU, we will see.
 
mtnwest1979
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:10 pm

MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
This is going to be a REALLY bad storm because it's forecast to move so slowly - almost unprecedented for a major storm in the US at least in the last 50 years. Expect lots of delays and cancellations. Not just Houston's airports, but Corpus Christi, Harlingen, McAllen and maybe some others I'd expect to close or at least have SEVERE delays.


LOL. All together CRP MFE HRL BRO have , what, 40 flights a day? Mostly all to DFW DAL IAH or HOU, so probably just mass cancellations then restart Monday or whatever. Just a backlog of folks I would assume.
Riddle: Which lasts longer, a start-up airline or a start-up football league?
 
YYZatcboy
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:11 pm

Below is the NOAA Forecaster discussion. FWIW in my experience the forecaster (Berg) is pretty much spot on most of the time.

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

Since the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a
dropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated
that Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb. However, the
plane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the
previous Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a
research mission at a nonstandard level). For now, the initial
intensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force
flight this evening.

Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening
mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push
Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest
motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger
mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast
to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just
inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the
track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly
eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will
remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48
hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much
greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast
to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the
cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official
forecast.

Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.
Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm
eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next
12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for
additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with
Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.
There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to
the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow
shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach
the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48
hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey
moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent
model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to
maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its
circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC
intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3
through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this
part of the forecast.

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track
of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All
locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should
be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and
life-threatening storm surge.

Key Messages:

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing
life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions
of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should
be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first
arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.
Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12
feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of
the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of
areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at
hurricanes.gov.

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the
middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,
with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next
Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard.

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC
website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -
the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being
exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents
the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and
warning areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg
DH1/3/4 MD11/88 L1011 A319/20/21/30/50/80 717 727 735/6/7/8/9 744 762/3 77E/W 788/789 E40/75/90 CRJ/700/705 CC150
J/S DH8D 736/7/8 763
 
AR385
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Thu Aug 24, 2017 10:16 pm

sudenmorsian wrote:
MIAFLLPBIFlyer wrote:
This is going to be a REALLY bad storm because it's forecast to move so slowly - almost unprecedented for a major storm in the US at least in the last 50 years. Expect lots of delays and cancellations. Not just Houston's airports, but Corpus Christi, Harlingen, McAllen and maybe some others I'd expect to close or at least have SEVERE delays.


In many ways, Harvey reminds me of Tropical Storm Alison which stalled over Houston in 2001; both storms remained over Texas due to a break down in the atmospheric steering currents which would normally carry them away. Though of course Harvey will be much stronger than Alison at landfall in a different part of the state.

For the most up to date information regarding Harvey, I would recommend the National Hurricane Center's website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.


I lived through Alison in 2001 in Houston. It was nightmarish. If Harvey is anything like Alison when it hits Houston, it won´t be pretty.
 
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Narfish641
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Fri Aug 25, 2017 1:53 pm

Why do have a bad feeling that this storm is gonna damage some large aircrafts? Judging by this storm, this is gonna be a pretty bad one.
Flew on:
SWA 737 738
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Fri Aug 25, 2017 3:29 pm

Narfish641 wrote:
Why do have a bad feeling that this storm is gonna damage some large aircrafts? Judging by this storm, this is gonna be a pretty bad one.



I don't know why you have that feeling. Doubtful that will happen.
Whatever
 
jetmatt777
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Fri Aug 25, 2017 4:20 pm

UAL2731 DEN-ORD-IAH is an extra section to ferry in ground employees (ramp and customer service) to assist with getting the hub through the hurricane.

On board, expecting a bumpy arrival.

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/UAL2731
 
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DIRECTFLT
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:25 pm

HURRICANE HARVEY is now officially a CAT 3 storm

Image
Smoothest Ride so far ~ AA A300B4-600R ~~ Favorite Aviation Author ~ Robert J. Serling
 
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tb727
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Re: Tropical Storm Harvey - Impact on Houston?

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:36 pm

Jetty wrote:
I'd advise anyone who wants to reach Houston tomorrow to fly KL.


I see what you did there :thumbsup:
Too lazy to work, too scared to steal!
 
ryanrap1
Topic Author
Posts: 401
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:37 pm

Anyone have any indication seeing how this storm is if airlines are probable to extend the flexible booking through end of next week with flooding in HOU?
 
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Narfish641
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:37 am

Looking at the Weather Channel, the storm has strengthing up to a Category 4.
Flew on:
SWA 737 738
 
Indy
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Sat Aug 26, 2017 3:53 am

Not sure why this isn't in Civil Aviation. There are going to be serious disruptions of air travel in Texas. I am curious about airport damage. How well will HOU survive this given the possibility of 40 inches of rain in some areas? Was this tread originally in Civil Aviation and moved here? If so it really needs to be moved back. It doesn't belong here.
Indy = Indianapolis and not Independence Air
 
Woodreau
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Sat Aug 26, 2017 1:36 pm

Traffic in IAH doesn't seem too bad, looks like everyone is still trying to run their reduced Saturday traffic flight schedule.A few cancels on Friday a few cancels on sat.

Yeah I thought I saw this post originally in Civil av. Couldn't find it last night so someone else started another hurricane Harvey and Houston aviation thread. Only found it because someone else locked in at it redirected here.
Bonus animus sit, ab experientia. Quod salvatum fuerit de malis usu venit judicium.
 
wxtech
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Sat Aug 26, 2017 5:11 pm

HURRICANE HARVEY IMPACTS FLIGHTS AT THE HOUSTON AIRPORTS
Over the next few days, severe weather caused by Hurricane Harvey may impact flights at IAH and HOU. The Houston Airports advises passengers to stay in touch with their air carriers for the most accurate information regarding specific flight status.

UPDATED 8/26/2017 at Noon
Flights at the Houston airports are being affected by Hurricane Harvey. The reported affected flights are as follows:

IAH - 704 Cancellations, 66 Delays

HOU - 123 Cancellations, 33 Delays
 
phatfarmlines
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Re: TS Harvey and HOU

Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:40 am

Looks like they are landing on the 15s at IAH. HOU flights are being diverted.

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