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Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:48 am
by neomax
ATL is the world's busiest for a number of reasons, but one is that capacity has allowed it to reach the level that it has. With several clean sheet airports being built with much higher numbers than ATL in mind (150 million), it's only a matter of time before one of them tops ATL and reaches its targeted capacity. My bets are on DWC or IST. Thoughts?

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:23 am
by TheLion
For me I’d say PEK, IST, DWC, HKG and PVG in that order. Few others are likely to be able to take the crown in the next decade.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:12 am
by jmchevallier
Most likely candidates to top ATL are DWC and IST, ahead of ICN, HKG and SIN (if they build a 4th runway).
IMO PEK will not go far beyond 100 Mppa for lack of terminal capacity : please remember also that Daxin new airport will open next year.

ATL also has some expansion plan of its own including a 6th parallel runway and some terminal extension and could top 120 Mppa.
Do not forget a possible resumption of former nb 1 ORD if current terminal projects are cleared.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:47 am
by neomax
jmchevallier wrote:
Most likely candidates to top ATL are DWC and IST, ahead of ICN, HKG and SIN (if they build a 4th runway).
IMO PEK will not go far beyond 100 Mppa for lack of terminal capacity : please remember also that Daxin new airport will open next year.

ATL also has some expansion plan of its own including a 6th parallel runway and some terminal extension and could top 120 Mppa.
Do not forget a possible resumption of former nb 1 ORD if current terminal projects are cleared.


I've heard that PEK is going to operate alongside the new airport to maximize the availability of new capacity instead of shifting everything. If that is true, you're probably right as a split situation will likely mean that neither of Beijing's airports are going to have everything and thus neither will top the list. ATL's advantage is the centralization of all Atlanta traffic into the airport, which has more or less been the case for PEK up to this point.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:10 pm
by BENAir01
Yeah it won’t be PEK because it and Dacing will be pretty evenly split, so it’s more likely each will be in the 50-60 mil area and nit even close to topping ATL
My guess would be IST or DWC.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:37 pm
by United787
jmchevallier wrote:
Do not forget a possible resumption of former nb 1 ORD if current terminal projects are cleared.


ORD has been growing it's passenger numbers even though they have been maxed out in gate availability for years. From reading this thread: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1383591 It seems like the growth has mostly come from upgauging the average aircraft size since aircraft movements have been flat.

2018 should see quantifiable growth on both fronts since AA will be opening it's 5 new gates soon. But I don't see any additional growth until the end of the proposed (and very schematic) terminal expansion plan since they will have to tear down gates as they build them much like they did at MDW. So I think we are 5+ years away from seeing any additional gate capacity increase. And then, I think ORD will be more competitive in the "world's busiest" title but I don't see them regaining their title.

EDIT: But, I do think one of the biggest improvements that will impact growth (if approved in the final plan), is the location of FIS facilities in T2 for *Alliance and OneWorld connections. I think that could make ORD a much stronger international gateway which would fuel more international flights and more domestic flights.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:02 pm
by PerfectGriffin
I think DXB could do it even before DWC. The airport authorities say the airport will handle 118m by 2023. I don't think ATL will reach those numbers by that time.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:02 pm
by unrave
DEL is poised to touch 110m sometime early next decade. If DWC gets delayed and Beijing's second airport opens in time, it could hold the title for a brief time.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:02 pm
by Arion640
Would be LHR if they'd had Runway 4 by now.

Anyway, IST, DXB until DWC is open. Wildcard, LAX?

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:40 pm
by masgniw
Arion640 wrote:
Would be LHR if they'd had Runway 4 by now.

Anyway, IST, DXB until DWC is open. Wildcard, LAX?


I'd love for LAX to grow into that spot, but it's unlikely to happen. Taxiway congestion is too severe to allow for more growth. The Midfield Concourse will give a little breathing room, but it really only helps out the least congested terminal (TBIT).

Barring a major tear-down/rebuild of current terminal areas, I think only aggressive use of remote stands is going to allow for meaningful growth (and US travelers tend to turn their noses up at this).

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 7:51 pm
by Blerg
masgniw wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Would be LHR if they'd had Runway 4 by now.

Anyway, IST, DXB until DWC is open. Wildcard, LAX?


I'd love for LAX to grow into that spot, but it's unlikely to happen. Taxiway congestion is too severe to allow for more growth. The Midfield Concourse will give a little breathing room, but it really only helps out the least congested terminal (TBIT).

Barring a major tear-down/rebuild of current terminal areas, I think only aggressive use of remote stands is going to allow for meaningful growth (and US travelers tend to turn their noses up at this).


I read somewhere that roughly 10% of all movement at LAX is made up of regional aircraft. Maybe it's time to encourage airlines to start sending larger aircraft especially as the airport gets more and more congested.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:11 pm
by pasu129
Blerg wrote:
masgniw wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
Would be LHR if they'd had Runway 4 by now.

Anyway, IST, DXB until DWC is open. Wildcard, LAX?


I'd love for LAX to grow into that spot, but it's unlikely to happen. Taxiway congestion is too severe to allow for more growth. The Midfield Concourse will give a little breathing room, but it really only helps out the least congested terminal (TBIT).

Barring a major tear-down/rebuild of current terminal areas, I think only aggressive use of remote stands is going to allow for meaningful growth (and US travelers tend to turn their noses up at this).


I read somewhere that roughly 10% of all movement at LAX is made up of regional aircraft. Maybe it's time to encourage airlines to start sending larger aircraft especially as the airport gets more and more congested.


LAX needs a rebuild to the following in order to catch up to ATL

Image

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:43 pm
by masgniw
pasu129 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
masgniw wrote:

I'd love for LAX to grow into that spot, but it's unlikely to happen. Taxiway congestion is too severe to allow for more growth. The Midfield Concourse will give a little breathing room, but it really only helps out the least congested terminal (TBIT).

Barring a major tear-down/rebuild of current terminal areas, I think only aggressive use of remote stands is going to allow for meaningful growth (and US travelers tend to turn their noses up at this).


I read somewhere that roughly 10% of all movement at LAX is made up of regional aircraft. Maybe it's time to encourage airlines to start sending larger aircraft especially as the airport gets more and more congested.


LAX needs a rebuild to the following in order to catch up to ATL

Image


But this probably won't ever happen, at least not to this scale and probably not within our lifetimes.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:07 am
by neomax
PerfectGriffin wrote:
I think DXB could do it even before DWC. The airport authorities say the airport will handle 118m by 2023. I don't think ATL will reach those numbers by that time.


Didn't think about that actually, but you have a point!

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:20 pm
by rjsampson
I'd be surprised if ANY airport catches up to KATL in the next decade.

Re: Which airports are most likely to top ATL as world's busiest in the next decade?

Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 9:21 pm
by rjsampson
I'd be surprised if ANY airport surpassed KATL in the next decade, at least in terms of aircraft movements. Possibly passengers as well.