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OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 7:43 pm
by himarhernandez
This is my first post...so be kind! :?
OAG has posted the 20 world busiest routes report. It is measured in number of flights, not passengers.
Does anyone have the list for the 20 busiest based on number of passengers?

One thing I love about this report is that it shows a breakdown of the equipment used on the route.

https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/ ... 018-A4.pdf

Enjoy!

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 7:50 pm
by casinterest
himarhernandez wrote:
This is my first post...so be kind! :?
OAG has posted the 20 world busiest routes report. It is measured in number of flights, not passengers.
Does anyone have the list for the 20 busiest based on number of passengers?

One thing I love about this report is that it shows a breakdown of the equipment used on the route.

https://www.oag.com/hubfs/Free_Reports/ ... 018-A4.pdf

Enjoy!


This is the worlds busiest international routes. A strong distinction, as there are national routes that are much busier.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccar ... ea43281702

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 7:56 pm
by c933103
Really, Top destination to connect to at KIX from ICN is to NOU?

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 8:01 pm
himarhernandez wrote:
Thanks for the distinction!
I see that those are also based on departures and not on passengers


Doesn't matter: it's still one measure of busiest. It's good for context.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 8:02 pm
by himarhernandez
Thanks for the distinction!
I see that those are also based on departures and not on passengers

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Thu May 03, 2018 8:04 pm
by steex
c933103 wrote:
Really, Top destination to connect to at KIX from ICN is to NOU?


Does seem surprising, but then the list of destinations served nonstop from KIX and not ICN is quite short.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 3:55 am
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
Really, Top destination to connect to at KIX from ICN is to NOU?


To be fair, it's minuscule amount of connection traffic. Not all that surprising either when you considered that it's largely a LCC route with mostly O&D, especially for people ex-ICN. I'm more surprised at the amount of KIX-ICN-HNL traffic anyway, when you got 2 LCC on KIX-HNL alongside higher frequency overall compare to ICN-HNL.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 6:27 am
by mmo
Just reported today, the busiest air route is SIN-KUL.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-44000000

Previous route was TPE-HKG.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 2:20 pm
by BirdBrain
Just my two cents on the KUL-SIN sector. Back in the day, MH and SQ was the only game in town and the tickets were expensive for such a short hop. Taking a coach/bus was never an option for the business Traveller. Train was great for budget and turists. Driving was an option but only if you it was a long duration trip. Now this route is flooded with LCC, so ticket prices have dropped significantly. Great to see the high speed option coming soon too.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Fri May 04, 2018 3:50 pm
by c933103
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Sat May 05, 2018 5:38 pm
by huaiwei
c933103 wrote:
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.

LCCs are much more dominant in Southeast Asia than there are in East Asia.

SIN alone is a hub for all three major Asian LCCs: Air Asia, Scoot and Jetstar Asia. While CX has been very successful in keeping most LCCs from being able to establish a significant hub in HKG.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Sun May 06, 2018 8:27 pm
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.


Well, of the 6 HKG routes:
BKK - No LCC b/c LCCs fly to DMK instead (Although it would still be, at best, 85-15 split).
SIN - Premium heavy route.
PVG & PEK - Chinese protectionism for the most part. Only major LCC in PRC is Spring, which does fly HKG-PVG.
TPE - Just not a lot of space for, let say, HK Express or Tigerair Taiwan, both of which can operate their plane elsewhere instead of trying to get that 2-3% market share.

ICN is the only one that doesn't really have a good explanation, and sure enough, it has the highest LCC shares of the 6 routes (30%), which is about the same as, let say, TPE-KIX.

On the flip side, it's not like LCC didn't put pressure on, let say, CX. UO (along with HX) has took a fair amount of traffic shares on ultra popular tourist routes like HKG-ICN and HKG-KIX/NRT. Prices from HKG to S. Korea and Japan are getting lower and lower. Even 5 years back Japan flights during relatively low season (Sept/Oct) are going from 3000-4000HKD. Now? Sub-2000HKD is the norm (on HX mostly), and for LCC, it's something like 1000-1500HKD.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 4:12 am
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.


Bumping this after seeing this on SCMP

http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-k ... rld-budget

10% LCC total does not surprised me at all. For large market ex-HKG, PRC has minimal LCC presence, same for Taiwan. Long-hauls, for obvious reason, has zero long-haul presence. That leaves Japan (a market which LCC is fairly new), S. Korea (Decent presence), along with SE Asia.

Ultimately, HKG is also having the LHR style slot problem. There is no LGW or STN for HK, though. MFM can try to become LCC Central, but it is not without issue, either (namely, bother control). SZX? Good luck with that.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 12:43 pm
by c933103
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.


Bumping this after seeing this on SCMP

http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-k ... rld-budget

10% LCC total does not surprised me at all. For large market ex-HKG, PRC has minimal LCC presence, same for Taiwan. Long-hauls, for obvious reason, has zero long-haul presence. That leaves Japan (a market which LCC is fairly new), S. Korea (Decent presence), along with SE Asia.

Ultimately, HKG is also having the LHR style slot problem. There is no LGW or STN for HK, though. MFM can try to become LCC Central, but it is not without issue, either (namely, bother control). SZX? Good luck with that.

With the HKZHMO bridge opening soon, I would expect MFM be able to offer shuttle bus up to the HK border control area and allow passengers travel to MFM air side without any need of clearing Macau border control, much like the service it offer to other existing border control area.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 1:33 pm
by zakuivcustom
c933103 wrote:
zakuivcustom wrote:
c933103 wrote:
Speaking of which, all the mentioned routes involve HKG have really low share of LCC there.


Bumping this after seeing this on SCMP

http://m.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-k ... rld-budget

10% LCC total does not surprised me at all. For large market ex-HKG, PRC has minimal LCC presence, same for Taiwan. Long-hauls, for obvious reason, has zero long-haul presence. That leaves Japan (a market which LCC is fairly new), S. Korea (Decent presence), along with SE Asia.

Ultimately, HKG is also having the LHR style slot problem. There is no LGW or STN for HK, though. MFM can try to become LCC Central, but it is not without issue, either (namely, bother control). SZX? Good luck with that.

With the HKZHMO bridge opening soon, I would expect MFM be able to offer shuttle bus up to the HK border control area and allow passengers travel to MFM air side without any need of clearing Macau border control, much like the service it offer to other existing border control area.


I actually didn't even realized they have the shuttle service to Taipa ferry pier now (Last time I looked at the option was 4-5 years back).

Yes, the HKZHMO bridge would make it quicker for HKer to go to MFM and also Macau people to use HKG (Helps that the bridge literally start next to the airport on Hong Kong side). On the other hand, when FSCs (Mainly BR/CI) are charging around 1400HKD between HKG-TPE (with 30kg checked luggage), while Tigerair TW is charging 1000HKD for fare alone (~1400HKD also if you included 1 20kg checked luggage) between MFM and TPE, there's just not a ton of spaces for LCCs to operate.

At the end, we'll just have to wait for the 3rd runway at HKG to be finished, whether those localism populist (or environmentalist) like it or not.

Re: OAG World busiest routes

Posted: Mon May 07, 2018 4:41 pm
by zakuivcustom
Another side note I want to make on the HKG "lack of LCC".

If you take a look on the equipments being use on the HKG routes:
HKG-TPE: 78% Widebody, 22% Narrowbody (Mostly BR A321)
HKG-SIN: 77% Widebody, 23% Narrowbody
HKG-BKK: 98% Widebody, 2% Narrowbody :shock:
HKG-ICN: 56% Widebody, 44% Narrowbody; Most LCC shares of the 6 routes
HKG-PEK: 66% Widebody, 34% Narrowbody
HKG-PVG: 45% Widebody, 55% Narrowbody

Meanwhile, from SIN:
SIN-KUL: 9% Widebody, 91% Narrowbody; 57-43 split
SIN-CGK: 29% Widebody, 71% Narrowbody; 58-42 split
SIN-BKK: 56% Widebody, 44% Narrowbody; 69-31 split (Again, there's the DMK factor)

To simply put, another factor that really prevent LCC from getting too much share is the amount of existing capacity ex-HKG. When A333 is the smallest plane you'll seat in on the busiest routes, it's very hard for LCC to gain inroads in terms of market shares. They would need twice the frequency, at a minimum, just to match capacity.

Both PEK and PVG has relatively low widebody percentage. Both places are not exactly great for LCC, though, due to protectionism. Plus as many said, you can't exactly beat CN3/4/5/6 on price.

And it's not like those planes are not filled, either, at least in the back. If anything, CX feel like that there are not enough seats in the back that they are adding a seat each row to their 773/77W. :white: The other solution would be for LCCs in the region to moved to widebodies (787/A330, etc.). The home LCC, UO, is unlikely to moved to A330s as that would start cannibalizing HX's traffic.