Hey everybody and happy thanksgiving to those who celebrate. I’m at work and just had a very interesting conversation with a Southwest pilot.

While getting a coffee he struck up a conversation, and I asked him about their impending Hawaiian service.

He said “Its coming soon. The deal with HNL is just about done. It’s the intra-Island flying we are getting squared away.”

“Oh that’s right I had read you guys were going to do that.”

“Well the reason we haven’t started flying to Hawaii yet is we haven’t ironed out those details yet. Back in the day Southwest got its start flying inside of Texas. That’s how we started and that’s what we are good at deep down. 15 minute turn times. In and out all day. When we start Hawaii and we start flying between the islands, we are going to destroy Hawaiian Airlines at their own game. That’s the reason for the delay, we are making sure it will be done right, and better.”


Not a totally serious thread, just looking for your opinions on his comments. Can anyone else within the WN family confirm this? Is Southwest really out for blood, for lack of a better term, at Hawaiian with intra-Island flying?

Cheers, happy thanksgiving.

No way is WN going to destroy HA.... a large chunk of interisland is actually business travel, and I can almost guarantee those folks will stick with HA. Given the 717 vs. the 737 for interisland, it's the 717's advantage any day. The tourist side of it? Harder to say ... but with 10x the frequency WN will have, I still have a hard time believing HA would be impacted that severely. Yields on the other hand will be going down with near certainty.

Mainland flying will be a different story ... both HA and AS are going to be the main two suffering

I have a personal opinion about Southwest from my 20+ trips on them but Southwest destroying Hawaiian is a funny joke. Hawaiian has the market 100% locked down and can just cut the prices to match having a competitor on the interisland routes. I think that Southwest is in for a surprise when it comes to Hawaii.

If I had the choice between Hawaiian or Southwest on interisland or to the mainland, Hawaiian would win everytime hands down.

Pilots are usually the last to know anything

I could definitely see tourist taking SWA interisland for one main reason. Rewards point. If they’re a SWA flyer in the lower 48, they’ll stick with them on vacation too.

The hold up is they still have not been certified for ETOPS. They apparently dramatically underestimated how long it would take when they announced their initial timeline.

Galwayman wrote:

Pilots are usually the last to know anything

I've actually heard pilots are always the second to last to hear anything. FAs are behind them.

I remember a WN trip I took in 2010. This was around the time that the WN to Hawaii rumors just began. The FAs said that the deal was almost done, and they were just waiting on the final stuff...

Lots of ego spilling out. Southwest is hardly the airline they were in the 70s. Sure they started with the 10 minute turn, but the 737-800 and MAX 8 are a lot bigger than the 737-200s they started with. So lots more people and bags to get on and off the plane. No way they’ll be able to consistently pull it off.

And if they do, they’ll have the well-discussed problems with the engines. The CFM56 just isn’t built to handle ultra short hop, ultra high frequency operations day after day after day.

Southwest isn’t going to destroy Hawaiian in the interisland market. Never underestimate the power of a local brand in Hawaii, there’s a lot of loyalty to local brands. Even if it’s not really local, but perceived that way. A good example is when CVS acquired Longs Drugs. Longs was seen as local eve though they were actually based in California. CVS chose to retain the Longs name on the Hawaii stores while the mainland locations got rebranded to CVS.

I’d like to add that he said that the mainland-Island flights won’t make much money, it’ll be the inter island flying that does it.


Yea, I’m with you guys. I’m sure they’ll do ok, but I don’t think I they are going to “destroy” Hawaiian.

I don't think Southwest is the airline to "destroy" Hawaiian.

Hawaiian is a legacy airline that so far had little competition to fear from, they basically own the market for Hawaii. Their vulnurability lies in the fact that they don't know how to deal with ULCCs. The legacies on the mainland like Delta and United are by now used to the presence of ULCCs on their market, they face competition from Spirit and Frontier and still they manage to survive. Hawaiian isn't used to this.

Southwest isn't the ULCC to change this. Sure Southwest means competition for them, but not that fierce. It's not like it'll totally destroy them, they can just share the market. Prices and service level will most likely be around the same level, they're not that different.

Now if Spirit or Frontier were to start Hawaii, that would be another story. Those are ULCCs, something that so far is unknown to Hawaii. It's something that Hawaiian has no experience dealing with. They'd be totally blown out of the market. Not saying they can't adapt, after all the legacies on the mainland were able to adapt to this competition too. But it'll be tough.

So let me make some not-that-well-informed observations:

1 - When the 737 NG was introduced, it was said that for the first time the 737 had intercontinental range. At that time I posted in a rec.aviation newsgroup (remember those?) a topic called "Southwest to Hawaii?". This was probably in the late 90's!
2 - Over the next decade, many airlines started flying the 737 US mainland to HI, but not Southwest
3 - Then a few years ago, WN said they were going to go there. But many years went by and no news
4 - Finally WN announces that they intend to start HI service and still another year goes by and there are no schedules. But now they are going to use the Max instead but still not schedules now that they have the MAX.

So thoughts and questions:

1 - What the hell it taking them so long?
2 - WN knows the 737 better than any other airline. Why are they having trouble getting ETOPs certification?
3 - Given the substantial traffic to HI already existing, are they way to late to make a decent business case here? Will this just create a slaughter in the Mainland-HI market?
4 - Is it even a wise business move so late? So HI would be better than say US-Canada or expansion into South America?

Discuss.

Duplicate post

Chemist wrote:

So let me make some not-that-well-informed observations:

1 - When the 737 NG was introduced, it was said that for the first time the 737 had intercontinental range. At that time I posted in a rec.aviation newsgroup (remember those?) a topic called "Southwest to Hawaii?". This was probably in the late 90's!
2 - Over the next decade, many airlines started flying the 737 US mainland to HI, but not Southwest
3 - Then a few years ago, WN said they were going to go there. But many years went by and no news
4 - Finally WN announces that they intend to start HI service and still another year goes by and there are no schedules. But now they are going to use the Max instead but still not schedules now that they have the MAX.

So thoughts and questions:

1 - What the hell it taking them so long?
2 - WN knows the 737 better than any other airline. Why are they having trouble getting ETOPs certification?
3 - Given the substantial traffic to HI already existing, are they way to late to make a decent business case here? Will this just create a slaughter in the Mainland-HI market?
4 - Is it even a wise business move so late? So HI would be better than say US-Canada or expansion into South America?

Discuss.

Following the April incident on WN, the Department of Transportation launched an audit investigation of the FAA's oversight of WN. My guess is that the FAA is taking everything slowly and making sure every aspect of ETOPs approval is being done correctly. I'm sure the FAA doesn't want to look lenient or 'easy' on WN while the investigation is ongoing. Re #3 and #4, HA, AS, and UA have grown considerably in the last year or two in the market. One can regularly see very low fares from CA to Hawaii. WN will be going up directly against HA and their A321neos and A330s, and AS will also put up a big fight but likely will be a big loser as WN is stronger out of the four airports it plans to fly from. Finally, something many don't seem to talk about, WN not being able to do redeyes will likely be a big disadvantage for them, at least if they want to get non-West Coast passengers. They are probably doing inter-island flights only to maintain aircraft utilization since they won't be able to do redeyes.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1408499

Already discussed as to why Hawai'i is a different case entirely, Until Southwest has a fleet of airplanes that can do multiple very-quick turns carrying tourists, locals, and vast amounts of cargo all while not overheating the engines, Hawaiian will continue to meet the local needs.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Now if Spirit or Frontier were to start Hawaii, that would be another story. Those are ULCCs, something that so far is unknown to Hawaii. It's something that Hawaiian has no experience dealing with. They'd be totally blown out of the market. Not saying they can't adapt, after all the legacies on the mainland were able to adapt to this competition too. But it'll be tough.

Kind of like how G4 did so well in Hawaii? Hawaii is NOT a super discount market. People who can't afford the current fares definitely cannot afford the hotels. Current hotel room rates are as much as airfare on many of the islands.

Does WN still have any ownership/involvement of DL's leased 717s? Or are the leased 717's owned by a leasing company? Not that WN would revisit this, but the 717 would have been a lot more viable if they are actually considering significant interisland operations.

Chemist wrote:

So thoughts and questions:

1 - What the hell it taking them so long?
2 - WN knows the 737 better than any other airline. Why are they having trouble getting ETOPs certification?


Discuss.

My understanding of the ETOPS delay is that the feds are trying to determine the answers to two questions:

1) Is the six year delay in getting a ratified maintenance worker contract expected to cause maintenance issues that become evident in an ETOPS environment

2) Is Southwest's use of contracted maintenance more likely to cause maintenance issues that become evident in an ETOPS environment

hawaiian717 wrote:

Lots of ego spilling out. Southwest is hardly the airline they were in the 70s. Sure they started with the 10 minute turn, but the 737-800 and MAX 8 are a lot bigger than the 737-200s they started with. So lots more people and bags to get on and off the plane. No way they’ll be able to consistently pull it off.

And if they do, they’ll have the well-discussed problems with the engines. The CFM56 just isn’t built to handle ultra short hop, ultra high frequency operations day after day after day.

Southwest isn’t going to destroy Hawaiian in the interisland market. Never underestimate the power of a local brand in Hawaii, there’s a lot of loyalty to local brands. Even if it’s not really local, but perceived that way. A good example is when CVS acquired Longs Drugs. Longs was seen as local eve though they were actually based in California. CVS chose to retain the Longs name on the Hawaii stores while the mainland locations got rebranded to CVS.

This is very true, local kine are supported by the community. How many Inter-Island airlines have come & gone, while HA has prevailed? All of them. Aloha, Discovery, Mid-Pacific, Mahalo, IslandAir, UA was kept from starting Inter Island service in the 90's, by the late Senator Inoye, but Islanders were prepared to be loyal to HA.

I've seen fares as low as $10 a leg Inter-Island & they have not swayed enough people to leave HA to make much of a difference, WN will do fine, but never crush HA. HA may have to re-consider bag fees on Inter Island flights to capture to un-loyal tourists.

Rdh3e wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Now if Spirit or Frontier were to start Hawaii, that would be another story. Those are ULCCs, something that so far is unknown to Hawaii. It's something that Hawaiian has no experience dealing with. They'd be totally blown out of the market. Not saying they can't adapt, after all the legacies on the mainland were able to adapt to this competition too. But it'll be tough.

Kind of like how G4 did so well in Hawaii? Hawaii is NOT a super discount market. People who can't afford the current fares definitely cannot afford the hotels. Current hotel room rates are as much as airfare on many of the islands.

Flying to Hawaii with limited frequency, embarrassingly low dispatch reliability and a bad reputation hurt G4.

SY has done well enough with their LAX-HNL flying. Remains to be seen how the switch from full service, low fare carrier to ULCC makes a difference.

NK and F9 would have to fly to Hawaii with 4x weekly or better frequency to be somewhat competitive in the market.

The CFM56 not being able to do a lot of short hops all day is a complete myth.

Prove me wrong. And quote the manuals please so I can look it up in the ones in front of me.

Chemist wrote:

1 - What the hell it taking them so long?

Honestly, they've had other fish to fry. They went from 28.4 billion revenue passenger miles in 1997 to 129 billion in 2017. Granted, just under 20 billion of the increase in annual RPMs came from the AirTran purchase, but the business has basically quadrupled in size over two decades. They went from zero presence in Denver to over 200 daily departures in just over a decade. They built BWI to nearly 250 daily departures in 25 years. WN entered long-unserved markets like DCA, LGA, MSP, CVG, PHL, PIT, etc. To put this all in perspective, they are larger (by RPMs) today than Delta was before the NWA merger.

TL;DR version: They've had plenty of opportunities for growth which didn't require ETOPS.

Chemist wrote:

2 - WN knows the 737 better than any other airline. Why are they having trouble getting ETOPs certification?

As others have pointed out, flight 1380 probably slowed down the process considerably.

Chemist wrote:

3 - Given the substantial traffic to HI already existing, are they way to late to make a decent business case here? Will this just create a slaughter in the Mainland-HI market?

Oh, they very likely will disrupt the market for travel between the mainland and Hawaii. Here's the thing: LUV management has stated that average fares in the California-Hawaii markets are a fair bit higher than what they tend to get for city-pairs with similar stage lengths in the contiguous U.S. Moreover, many of the passengers flying AS and HA from airports like SAN, OAK, SMF, and SJC to Hawaii are probably WN customers for most of their other flying and would likely choose WN if that option were available to Hawaii.

If no one really cared about WN flying to Hawaii the media coverage would have been practically nonexistent.

Chemist wrote:

4 - Is it even a wise business move so late? So HI would be better than say US-Canada or expansion into South America?

Well, building on #3 above, WN is adding service from the markets where they are strong. At OAK, for example, they hold over 70% of the domestic market. At SMF, they have 55%; at SJC 49%, and at SAN 39%. Their market position in these cities gives them a large built-in customer base and the point-of-sale overwhelmingly skews to the mainland.

Point-of-sale for Canada-U.S. is predominantly Canadian which would put them at a more significant disadvantage to the Canadian carriers; also, the tax burden on transborder flying makes it more difficult to disrupt the market with lower fares. WN doesn't have a fleet suitable for serving deep South America and compared to the addressable market for WN to Hawaii, northern South America would be tiny. We're probably talking maybe a half dozen total flights from some combination of HOU & FLL to LIM, GYE, UIO, BOG, and/or PTY.

RWA380 wrote:

I've seen fares as low as $10 a leg Inter-Island & they have not swayed enough people to leave HA to make much of a difference, WN will do fine, but never crush HA. HA may have to re-consider bag fees on Inter Island flights to capture to un-loyal tourists.

I doubt very strongly WN intends to crush HA in the interisland market, but I do expect that HA will have to be a bit more customer-friendly in its pricing and baggage policies.

CanesFan wrote:

the 717 would have been a lot more viable if they are actually considering significant interisland operations.

Except the 717 can't make it to the mainland without ferry tanks, so they essentially would have had to commit to a dedicated fleet in Hawaii with a Hawaii crew base as well, starting from zero presence in the market. They're not that crazy and both Mesa/go! and Republic/Mokulele have shown how bad of an idea that is.

Rdh3e wrote:

Hawaii is NOT a super discount market.

That is kind of what was said about the Canary Islands in the 80s and 90s, but look at how that has changed. Ryanair and other LCCs have a strong presence in the Canaries, flying from there to just about anywhere in Europe. Certainly in the off-seasons it's affordable for everyone.

So Hawaii may not be a super discount market yet, however that doesn't mean it'll stay that way. Things can change and the presence of certain airlines can influence those changes.

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

Hawaii is NOT a super discount market.

That is kind of what was said about the Canary Islands in the 80s and 90s, but look at how that has changed. Ryanair and other LCCs have a strong presence in the Canaries, flying from there to just about anywhere in Europe. Certainly in the off-seasons it's affordable for everyone.

So Hawaii may not be a super discount market yet, however that doesn't mean it'll stay that way. Things can change and the presence of certain airlines can influence those changes.

The Canaries are a stones throw to Africa and Spain, and a modest "regional length" flight to all the major population centers, such as London. In no way, shape or form, can this be analogous to Hawaii, which is close to precisely...... nothing.
It isn't just that Hawaii is naturally beautiful, has wonderful weather, water and culture that make it expensive; its the remoteness. Always has been, always will be. Can't change that.

It will stay that way. Hawaii will never, ever be a discount market.
Having said that, I think you're missing the difference between inter-island and mainland travel in this thread. Hawaiians would love to be able to travel between the islands for less than they do now; what is in doubt is if anyone, including WN, can effectively deliver large-scale, cheaper services than HA presently does. I for one, am dubious.

RWA380 wrote:

hawaiian717 wrote:

Lots of ego spilling out. Southwest is hardly the airline they were in the 70s. Sure they started with the 10 minute turn, but the 737-800 and MAX 8 are a lot bigger than the 737-200s they started with. So lots more people and bags to get on and off the plane. No way they’ll be able to consistently pull it off.

And if they do, they’ll have the well-discussed problems with the engines. The CFM56 just isn’t built to handle ultra short hop, ultra high frequency operations day after day after day.

Southwest isn’t going to destroy Hawaiian in the interisland market. Never underestimate the power of a local brand in Hawaii, there’s a lot of loyalty to local brands. Even if it’s not really local, but perceived that way. A good example is when CVS acquired Longs Drugs. Longs was seen as local eve though they were actually based in California. CVS chose to retain the Longs name on the Hawaii stores while the mainland locations got rebranded to CVS.

This is very true, local kine are supported by the community. How many Inter-Island airlines have come & gone, while HA has prevailed? All of them. Aloha, Discovery, Mid-Pacific, Mahalo, IslandAir, UA was kept from starting Inter Island service in the 90's, by the late Senator Inoye, but Islanders were prepared to be loyal to HA.

I've seen fares as low as $10 a leg Inter-Island & they have not swayed enough people to leave HA to make much of a difference, WN will do fine, but never crush HA. HA may have to re-consider bag fees on Inter Island flights to capture to un-loyal tourists.

Inouye blocking UA from jumping into the inter island market was a big mistake but true to form Hawaii protectionism at work.

It’s not like UA was so fly by night operator into Hawaii. They have been the market leader for decades to the mainland at least.

Many Kama aina complain that HA fares are often too high. While I don’t necessarily agree, UA entering in the 90s and again after AQ collapsed would have been beneficial for consumers.

Beyond that, WN destroying HA is laughable. They’ve been successfully holding their own for 80 years, not counting the go! days that almost put them under due to shady business tactics on YV’s part.

Unfortunately your pilot acquaintance seems rather ignorant.

77H

77H wrote:

RWA380 wrote:

hawaiian717 wrote:

Lots of ego spilling out. Southwest is hardly the airline they were in the 70s. Sure they started with the 10 minute turn, but the 737-800 and MAX 8 are a lot bigger than the 737-200s they started with. So lots more people and bags to get on and off the plane. No way they’ll be able to consistently pull it off.

And if they do, they’ll have the well-discussed problems with the engines. The CFM56 just isn’t built to handle ultra short hop, ultra high frequency operations day after day after day.

Southwest isn’t going to destroy Hawaiian in the interisland market. Never underestimate the power of a local brand in Hawaii, there’s a lot of loyalty to local brands. Even if it’s not really local, but perceived that way. A good example is when CVS acquired Longs Drugs. Longs was seen as local eve though they were actually based in California. CVS chose to retain the Longs name on the Hawaii stores while the mainland locations got rebranded to CVS.

This is very true, local kine are supported by the community. How many Inter-Island airlines have come & gone, while HA has prevailed? All of them. Aloha, Discovery, Mid-Pacific, Mahalo, IslandAir, UA was kept from starting Inter Island service in the 90's, by the late Senator Inoye, but Islanders were prepared to be loyal to HA.

I've seen fares as low as $10 a leg Inter-Island & they have not swayed enough people to leave HA to make much of a difference, WN will do fine, but never crush HA. HA may have to re-consider bag fees on Inter Island flights to capture to un-loyal tourists.

Inouye blocking UA from jumping into the inter island market was a big mistake but true to form Hawaii protectionism at work.

It’s not like UA was so fly by night operator into Hawaii. They have been the market leader for decades to the mainland at least.

Many Kama aina complain that HA fares are often too high. While I don’t necessarily agree, UA entering in the 90s and again after AQ collapsed would have been beneficial for consumers.

Beyond that, WN destroying HA is laughable. They’ve been successfully holding their own for 80 years, not counting the go! days that almost put them under due to shady business tactics on YV’s part.

Unfortunately your pilot acquaintance seems rather ignorant.

77H

The many good things the late Senator did for Hawaii, with only Hawaii in mind are endless. He had the fighting spirit for those dots in the Pacific. UA entering the market in the 90's would have just killed AQ quicker, and as when AQ did finally fall, many folks were unemployeed.

The late senator was more concerned with Hawaiian jobs than tourists being inconvenienced or how low fares could get slashed.

I think in any market where air travel is essential to visit other parts of an area & one company is the big kahuna in the market, the perception of price gouging is going to be there. I agree that HA is fair on Inter Island legs, with bag fees & the added conveniences, flying F is a reasonable option.

I think Hawaiians want another option in Inter Island travel, I have tried most of the Inter Island carriers in the last 30 years & for such a short flight, it really doesn't matter all that much. Last time we went, we chose to fly Island Air HNL-OGG, I like props between the islands, glad I did as they ceased operations months later. The Mahalo F-27's were great with the big windows. I too agree, WN is not going to crush the Inter Island market, nothing more than a small dent.

joeblow10 wrote:

No way is WN going to destroy HA.... a large chunk of interisland is actually business travel, and I can almost guarantee those folks will stick with HA. Given the 717 vs. the 737 for interisland, it's the 717's advantage any day. The tourist side of it? Harder to say ... but with 10x the frequency WN will have, I still have a hard time believing HA would be impacted that severely. Yields on the other hand will be going down with near certainty.

Mainland flying will be a different story ... both HA and AS are going to be the main two suffering

I'm going to agree strongly. I'm most certainly not a WN detractor. They're very safe, with a good record. Compared to the mainline carriers, they've got great customer service with a good attitude. But... the whole no seat assignment / cattle car thing isn't for me. If you love them, great, enjoy your flights with them. But I'm not joining the parade and many others aren't either.

FlyHappy wrote:

PatrickZ80 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

Hawaii is NOT a super discount market.

That is kind of what was said about the Canary Islands in the 80s and 90s, but look at how that has changed. Ryanair and other LCCs have a strong presence in the Canaries, flying from there to just about anywhere in Europe. Certainly in the off-seasons it's affordable for everyone.

So Hawaii may not be a super discount market yet, however that doesn't mean it'll stay that way. Things can change and the presence of certain airlines can influence those changes.

The Canaries are a stones throw to Africa and Spain, and a modest "regional length" flight to all the major population centers, such as London. In no way, shape or form, can this be analogous to Hawaii, which is close to precisely...... nothing.
It isn't just that Hawaii is naturally beautiful, has wonderful weather, water and culture that make it expensive; its the remoteness. Always has been, always will be. Can't change that.

It will stay that way. Hawaii will never, ever be a discount market.
Having said that, I think you're missing the difference between inter-island and mainland travel in this thread. Hawaiians would love to be able to travel between the islands for less than they do now; what is in doubt is if anyone, including WN, can effectively deliver large-scale, cheaper services than HA presently does. I for one, am dubious.

In the jet age the public has taken for granted the distance between the West Coast of the United States and the Hawaiian Islands. I was checking out a cruise from San Francisco to Hawaii and it was going to take approximately 5 days to get from SFO to Hawaii!

Rdh3e wrote:

The hold up is they still have not been certified for ETOPS. They apparently dramatically underestimated how long it would take when they announced their initial timeline.

How can G4 get ETOPS is a reasonable timeframe but it has taken WN years?

nws2002 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

The hold up is they still have not been certified for ETOPS. They apparently dramatically underestimated how long it would take when they announced their initial timeline.

How can G4 get ETOPS is a reasonable timeframe but it has taken WN years?

Forget the G4 behemoth - how does teensy, tiny little understaffed SY quietly get ETOPS for Hawaii, but mighty WN just flails about?
I've asked this several times amongst "people in the know" around here, and still can't get a coherent answer.

Something about it all just doesn't add up. Don't get it. But whatever - personally, I'm not interested in Pacific crossings on WN. Not enough peanuts.

nws2002 wrote:

Rdh3e wrote:

The hold up is they still have not been certified for ETOPS. They apparently dramatically underestimated how long it would take when they announced their initial timeline.

How can G4 get ETOPS is a reasonable timeframe but it has taken WN years?

I can't explain it, but that appears to be the issue. This article is from a couple weeks ago.

"FAA sign-off on ETOPS certificate (required for Hawaii) has been delayed for up to 90 days"

https://beatofhawaii.com/southwest-hawa ... ne-update/