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Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:17 pm
by FTMCPIUS
I don't know how to research stats on the passenger-related reasons for returns/diversions, but it seems there are a lot more of them lately.

My guess
a) Alcohol 50%
b) Drugs 25%
c) Total a##holes 20%
d) Medical 5%

Want to take a stab at it or do you have access to current stats?

Thx

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:21 pm
by gokmengs
I don’t have stats but I’ll guess medical diversions must be more than (by a large amount) what you have for alcohol and drug related diversions. Your top 2 make the news when they occur, but not every medical diversion does. My 2 cents

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:28 pm
by george77300
I would say medical 1st by a long shot. Very frequent but don’t always make the news like the drunk/rude passenger.

There was a Air Malta that diverted to GVA yesterday, heard on ATC while flying over France but have seen no mention of that in the news (I’m in the UK).

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 10:33 pm
by dmanonice
I would agree that medical diversions by far are more frequent than intox/unruly passenger related diversions.

This is based on my observations of 12 years as an airport worker so no solid data sets unfortunately.

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Tue Feb 05, 2019 11:16 pm
by ORDJOE
My guess pax related about 98 medical 1% alcohol 1% other

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:45 am
by IPFreely
Medical diversions are a near-daily occurrence. They don't make the news. Issues like mechanical problems, fuel, and weather at the destination are probably right up there with medical as to how often they cause diversions. I'd guess alcohol/drugs/unruly passengers are about 1% of total diversions. But that 1% gets 99.999% of the publicity.

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:58 am
by tjerome
My guess:
1. Medical 60%
2. Destination WX/ATC 25%
3. Mechanical 13%
4. Unruly pax 2%

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:09 am
by FTMCPIUS
tjerome wrote:
My guess:
1. Medical 60%
2. Destination WX/ATC 25%
3. Mechanical 13%
4. Unruly pax 2%

Wow! I was way off, especially on the medical. Thanks to all.

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 1:54 am
by atcsundevil
FTMCPIUS wrote:
I don't know how to research stats on the passenger-related reasons for returns/diversions, but it seems there are a lot more of them lately.

My guess
a) Alcohol 50%
b) Drugs 25%
c) Total a##holes 20%
d) Medical 5%

Want to take a stab at it or do you have access to current stats?

Thx

I don't have any numbers, but I can make a fairly educated guess based on my experience. Granted I work in the northeast, so diversions due to weather/misc holding (LGA goes into holding on just about any day that ends in Y, and usually for no particular reason) are far more common than elsewhere in the NAS.

Weather/lengthy holding: 50%
Medical: 40%
Mechanical: 9.5%
Other: 0.5%

Diversions for unruly passengers are actually very unusual. Even if you're strictly looking at diversions due to passenger issues, I'm willing to bet it's less than 1-2%. Almost all non-weather or non-mechanical diversions are medical, either passengers or crew.

Re: Cause of returns/diversions

Posted: Wed Feb 06, 2019 6:31 pm
by PatrickZ80
atcsundevil wrote:
Granted I work in the northeast, so diversions due to weather/misc holding (LGA goes into holding on just about any day that ends in Y, and usually for no particular reason) are far more common than elsewhere in the NAS.


But this is strictly about passenger related diversions. Weather doesn't count.

It occurs to me that alcohol/drugs and total a$$holes are separated. If there is a diversion caused by an unruly passenger it's mostly a combination of alcohol/drugs and total a$$holes. Everybody reacts different to alcohol, so just being drunk itself doesn't have to be a problem. Lots of people can be highly intoxicated and still not cause any trouble. Only a small number of them become a$$holes. Also, the people being total a$$holes mostly behave very well when they're sober, they only become a$$holes when they're drunk.

But I agree, most diversions are medical. They just don't make the news.