mpsrent
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:29 pm

If the plan is to keep the 777-200ER fleet for up to 30 years, I hope they have plans to upgrade some of the Heathrow birds. Perhaps I have bad luck, however I always seem to end up on the 20 year old models with broken seat bits and no power points.
 
Breathe
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:32 pm

mpsrent wrote:
If the plan is to keep the 777-200ER fleet for up to 30 years, I hope they have plans to upgrade some of the Heathrow birds. Perhaps I have bad luck, however I always seem to end up on the 20 year old models with broken seat bits and no power points.

If you think the ones at LHR are bad, be thankful you don't have to board some of the rust buckets they have at LGW! :lol:
 
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:39 pm

ClassicLover wrote:

Well, as above. EI don't need it. The long haul fleet will be Airbus A330s and Airbus A321neo LR aircraft according to the plan for the next several years.


Some of EI's A330s need replacing soonish, and the A350s are the only aircraft designated to replace them at present. There have been a lot of rumours about shifting the order to another IAG airline, but until it happens I can only assume that they are still coming. Time is getting on if they want to order the A330neo or 787 instead, and there has been zero news on that front.
 
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:10 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
ClassicLover wrote:

Well, as above. EI don't need it. The long haul fleet will be Airbus A330s and Airbus A321neo LR aircraft according to the plan for the next several years.


Some of EI's A330s need replacing soonish, and the A350s are the only aircraft designated to replace them at present. There have been a lot of rumours about shifting the order to another IAG airline, but until it happens I can only assume that they are still coming. Time is getting on if they want to order the A330neo or 787 instead, and there has been zero news on that front.


EI could simply acquire more 330ceos second-hand (as could Level)
 
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:50 am

The waters have been muddied, as Bloomberg posted fairly confidently that BA is going for the 777X to replace the "high" side of the 747-400s (and maybe A380s?) This either leaves the A350s in question, or makes them the choice to replace 777-200ERs.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1416699
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:53 am

jfk777 wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:

What’s your thoughts on a handful of second hand A380’s turning up eventually? I’ve heard from some of your colleagues they could do with 6 more ideally?


In theory for the right price. New off the table now. As for used the ex SQ were the early overweight/not standard examples. As for a lot of others such as AF getting rid of 3-5 from lease they will be the wrong engines. Again the same with QR and the vast majority of Emirates (RR frames are very young). There simply aren’t any RR birds in good condition available. Let alone for the right price. Also the refit to BA standard is not going to be cheap. I would imagine a close to 0% chance of any more A380s going to IAG now there is no new frame options anymore.


It's time for Willie Walsh to fly to Seattle and buy his 777-9 fleet for 25 to 30 airplanes. The A380 has died and BA needs a post whale jet plan.


You called it! :thumbsup:

Given Bloomberg's latest report, it literally seems like Willie Walsh read this, went to Seattle and placed an order for the 777-9! How many? We'll have to wait for the announcement hopefully at the earnings call.
 
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BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:23 pm

Interesting article in FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-456195/ ) which says:

Four of the newly-ordered 777-9s will be used to start the 777-200 replacement programme. (Chief executive Willie Walsh) points out that BA has a total of 46 777-200s, and more will need replacing.

All four [manufacturers] still have a lot to play for,” he says.

IAG had disclosed to investors last year, in a detailed fleet plan, that it needed 44 long-haul aircraft in the period from 2020-23.

BA already has 787-{8,9,10} and A350-1000 commitments. Will it be more of the same, or will A350-900 join the party too? Is there a role for NMA?
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:29 pm

Revelation wrote:
Interesting article in FG ( https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-456195/ ) which says:

Four of the newly-ordered 777-9s will be used to start the 777-200 replacement programme. (Chief executive Willie Walsh) points out that BA has a total of 46 777-200s, and more will need replacing.

All four [manufacturers] still have a lot to play for,” he says.

IAG had disclosed to investors last year, in a detailed fleet plan, that it needed 44 long-haul aircraft in the period from 2020-23.

BA already has 787-{8,9,10} and A350-1000 commitments. Will it be more of the same, or will A350-900 join the party too? Is there a role for NMA?

I think the A350-900 could fit well for some of the longer routes and more 787-10 for the shorter routes as 777-200ER replacement. It will be interesting to see. There will no doubt be another A320neo family order at some point too. Could definitely see the use for the NMA on some routes but perhaps not enough to warrant the extra fleet. A321neo could cover most withe the 787-8 doing the rest. Time will tell.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:29 pm

It will be an interesting one. Some of the BA 772’s fly fairly short range missons to Africa, Middle East and East Coast US. Best replaced by 787-10’s perhaps.

Some of the 772’s with crew bunks however, fly longer missions like BKK and EZE. BA could slightly downsize and get some more 787-9’s.

I don’t see a role for the NMA with the 787-8 in the fleet, a lot of these fly short missions too like TLV and BWI but can also go down to Rio if needed.

What replaces the Gatwick 772’s is of most interest to me. But they’ll probably fly to the very very end.
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:36 pm

A 50/50 split order between 78J and A359 makes the most sense to me. They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:54 pm

BA have probably thought this out but has it occurred to anyone they’re going to have a LOT of different types


Basically every widebody Boeing passenger twin in production plus the 779 and then one, perhaps two versions of the A350


The only twins left out are the 778 and A33N, a complicated, disparate fleet to be sure
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:19 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
A 50/50 split order between 78J and A359 makes the most sense to me. They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.

Interesting observation. The FG article goes back twice to WW's suggestion that he was able to get A/B/RR/GE to intensely compete for the business.

Here's a quote:

“It’s probably the most aggressive approach I’ve seen, from all four, the best I’ve seen in terms of them wanting our business.”

So the options (of course) are a sign of future potential, but they are also a sign that BA got great pricing and wanted to lock that in while they still had the advantage at the negotiating table.

It's a long shot but it'd be interesting to find 778 in the BA portfolio at some point in time.

Max Q wrote:
BA have probably thought this out but has it occurred to anyone they’re going to have a LOT of different types

Basically every widebody Boeing passenger twin in production plus the 779 and then one, perhaps two versions of the A350

The only twins left out are the 778 and A33N, a complicated, disparate fleet to be sure

It's kind of strange to me given that we heard a lot about IAG strategy of streamlining fleets across the group, but they are big enough to get away with it.

It's also kind of strange to me to see A35J sitting more in a 77E replacement role rather than a 77W replacement role and A359 so far having no role at BA yet having several placements within other IAG airlines.

Maybe this will change when this next opportunity is addressed.
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:30 pm

Assuming the NMA comes in with unique efficiencies at certain niches, it will create ripples up and down the market. While the smallest model is seen as the inter-continental even the largest model will connect the east coast US to much of western Europe.
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:45 pm

The article also states:

"IAG says its contracted and authorised capital expenditure includes commitments to 2023 covering 41 A350s, 12 787s, four 777s, four A330s, plus 71 A320s and 21 A321s."

Are there any BA 772 replacements lurking in that total?
 
george77300
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:48 pm

Max Q wrote:
BA have probably thought this out but has it occurred to anyone they’re going to have a LOT of different types


Basically every widebody Boeing passenger twin in production plus the 779 and then one, perhaps two versions of the A350


The only twins left out are the 778 and A33N, a complicated, disparate fleet to be sure


Firstly they have a large enough fleets where it doesn’t matter as much. Second,y having 772/77W and 788/789/781 don’t really count as extras. Once you operate the one, the extra “lengths” don’t really matter in terms of crew/maintenance cost as they are more or less the same.

They are sort of simplifying. The 767s went and the 747s will soon. Then it’ll be 777/787 and A350/A350 for long haul. And just A320 family short haul. For an airline that size it’s very doable.

I can’t see an A330neo order for BA and the 778 wont either as it is extra range BA don’t need. But in theory they could if they want to try and beat QF to SYD as they will operate the 779 too but unlikely I’d guess.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:52 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The article also states:

"IAG says its contracted and authorised capital expenditure includes commitments to 2023 covering 41 A350s, 12 787s, four 777s, four A330s, plus 71 A320s and 21 A321s."

Are there any BA 772 replacements lurking in that total?


Just the only three 777-200(non-ER) (ZZZA-ZZZC) being replaced indirectly by three 77Ws. The fourth 77W is for growth. As for the rest no 777-200ER replacements. They are going until their 30th at least currently. They have 8 years at least until the first may go. They’ve got time for those orders. A359 (for YMMx frames) /B78X (for VIIx frames) mix I would guess.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:03 pm

I'd be stunned if they weren't mostly A359s. Maybe a few add-on B78xs, but only a few. They can always place the A359s at IB too. I can't remember if EI is getting them too, or is it the A339?
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:07 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.


Maybe a few 778X for kangaroo routes? :scratchchin:
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:14 pm

The 778 would have to be defined before I think BA would ever commit to any of the type. A handful, at best, would be needed, but as per above (and I'd noted elsewhere) BA operates basically every other widebody type now, or will by 2022, with the exception of the A359 and 778.

I don't know how many more 'niches' they need to fill with one of those two potential types, but the oddsmaker would probably say they are likely to go for one or both. The options in their 77x and A350 contracts probably have pricing defined pretty well should they opt to do so, and Boeing/Airbus would be happy to expand on those options if/as requested. The handicap, to my mind, though, is that I don't think they want to expand at all their RR powered 787 fleet at this time at the contracted rates.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:32 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
The article also states:

"IAG says its contracted and authorised capital expenditure includes commitments to 2023 covering 41 A350s, 12 787s, four 777s, four A330s, plus 71 A320s and 21 A321s."

Are there any BA 772 replacements lurking in that total?

Only 3 772 will leave the fleet in that timeframe.
But there are still 29 undecided until end of 2023.
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:41 pm

PC12Fan wrote:
GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.


Maybe a few 778X for kangaroo routes? :scratchchin:

Doubtful.

Qantas is the nonstop specialist on the Kangaroo route. From the opposite direction, it is a much more price sensitive market and one which the ME3 have hacked away at. Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and evem Malaysian are viable one-stop options. All of those offer top-quality service.

Coming back, Qantas is known for its incredible brand loyalty in Australia. BA operations down under are a mere shadow of what they were.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:52 pm

sciing wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
The article also states:

"IAG says its contracted and authorised capital expenditure includes commitments to 2023 covering 41 A350s, 12 787s, four 777s, four A330s, plus 71 A320s and 21 A321s."

Are there any BA 772 replacements lurking in that total?

Only 3 772 will leave the fleet in that timeframe.
But there are still 29 undecided until end of 2023.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... 8998503790


I found the "undecided" pretty interesting. It doesn't even say whether its widebody or narrowbody. But that is relatively soon; IAG will need an order in the next year or so for that.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:58 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
A 50/50 split order between 78J and A359 makes the most sense to me. They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.

Agreed, but the commercial terms could swing the ratio. BA will drive a hard bargain.

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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:05 pm

Bricktop wrote:
I'd be stunned if they weren't mostly A359s. Maybe a few add-on B78xs, but only a few. They can always place the A359s at IB too. I can't remember if EI is getting them too, or is it the A339?


EI ordered the 359 but those slots went to IB after IAG bought EI. No 330Neos on order for any of the IAG family, yet! EI most likely candidate, but staying with CEO for now, 2 more rumoured coming end of this year, early 2020.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:14 pm

ShamrockBoi330 wrote:
Bricktop wrote:
I'd be stunned if they weren't mostly A359s. Maybe a few add-on B78xs, but only a few. They can always place the A359s at IB too. I can't remember if EI is getting them too, or is it the A339?


EI ordered the 359 but those slots went to IB after IAG bought EI. No 330Neos on order for any of the IAG family, yet! EI most likely candidate, but staying with CEO for now, 2 more rumoured coming end of this year, early 2020.

:thumbsup:
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:42 pm

I think the 77E fleet will be replaced by a combination of 787-9/10 and A35K and also some of those options on the 779. I don’t think we will see an exact like for like replacement as BA’s own market forecasts are probably different to what they were when they bought the 77E originally and there is more choice now to right size different routes.

Also don’t forget that since the 744 and 77E were ordered by BA they have gained more LHR slots so I expect there will be a slight growth in the number of Longhaul aircraft overall.
 
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Re: BA: 747 Replacement Settled, On to 777-200 Replacement Contest?

Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:47 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
A 50/50 split order between 78J and A359 makes the most sense to me. They also have lots of 77X options for a reason.

They could also use the 77W to replace some 77E and use the77X options to replace the 77W.
 
Breathe
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:16 pm

Interesting comment from WW regarding the 777-200 replacement:

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... er-456195/

Four of the newly-ordered 777-9s will be used to start the 777-200 replacement programme. Walsh points out that BA has a total of 46 777-200s, and more will need replacing.

“All four [manufacturers] still have a lot to play for,” he says.

IAG had disclosed to investors last year, in a detailed fleet plan, that it needed 44 long-haul aircraft in the period from 2020-23.
 
Opus99
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:01 am

BA’s options for the A350 I believe covers both the 900 and the 1000 so either or. And they have 36 in total. I see them going for the 900, I believe it’s the perfect 777-200ER replacement and given that it’s been such a success at Iberia and this year has been a year of orders for IAG, I expect something at the Dubai Airshow.
 
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flee
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 11:27 am

If the B777-9 EIS is delayed, how will BA deal with it?
 
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 2:35 pm

BA's choice of replacement for the 77Es at LGW will be interesting.

The 77W, 779 and 35K are definitely too large to be accommodated on Pier 2, save the two end stands. Even the 778 is likely to be too large. So this leaves Pier 3, which I don't think is big enough to accommodate all of BA's operations.
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Opus99
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:49 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
BA's choice of replacement for the 77Es at LGW will be interesting.

The 77W, 779 and 35K are definitely too large to be accommodated on Pier 2, save the two end stands. Even the 778 is likely to be too large. So this leaves Pier 3, which I don't think is big enough to accommodate all of BA's operations.

I’m going for the A359 to replace most of the 77Es
 
Opus99
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 3:50 pm

flee wrote:
If the B777-9 EIS is delayed, how will BA deal with it?

They might delay their retirement schedule or maybe take on more A35Ks
 
BA777FO
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:01 pm

The LGW 777 fleet replacement is an interesting one. They're just being refreshed/densified so they'll go on for another ~10 years or so.

After that, the 787-9 will be too small. The 787-10 might be the right size but would probably struggle with MRU, LIM and SJO. The A359 might be a good choice, but perhaps too small for the likes of CUN or MCO? The A35K might be a good bet. I think it'll be Airbus' order to lose.

Funny how the LGW short haul fleet could go from A320 to B73M and the longhaul fleet from Boeing to Airbus. I dare say BA/IAG has no idea what to do at the moment.
 
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:18 pm

BA777FO wrote:
After that, the 787-9 will be too small. The 787-10 might be the right size but would probably struggle with MRU, LIM and SJO. The A359 might be a good choice, but perhaps too small for the likes of CUN or MCO? The A35K might be a good bet. I think it'll be Airbus' order to lose.


The problem with the 787-10 and A35K is that most of South Terminal's stands are too small to accommodate them. North Terminal would have been fine.

On the face of it, one solution would be to remove the roadway at the back of Pier 2, but previously LGW have declined to do this for operational and safety reasons. If they did revisit this, the 787-10 would just about fit, but the A35K's nose gear position and longer length means that still isn't going to provide enough room to attach a tug.
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VSMUT
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:03 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
but the A35K's nose gear position and longer length means that still isn't going to provide enough room to attach a tug.


You can get tugs that attach the other way round, pushing it from below the fuselage.
 
TUGMASTER
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:39 am

VSMUT wrote:
PlymSpotter wrote:
but the A35K's nose gear position and longer length means that still isn't going to provide enough room to attach a tug.


You can get tugs that attach the other way round, pushing it from below the fuselage.


That’s a maintenance area / hangar procedure.
Very very rarely happens on operational flights .
Safety procedures would not allow it.
The 35K has produced a few ground handling problems due to its length.

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