BA777FO
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:19 pm

The IAG Captial Markets Presentation was incorrect; there are only 3 77Ws to be delivered, not 4. They are also not due to enter service until Q3 2020, not 2019.
 
Bhoy
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Feb 17, 2019 1:44 pm

AndrewJM70 wrote:
If I was a BA network planner, I would rationalise short-haul flying, upscale to A320 and A321 but reduce frequency, codeshare on most European routes with the B-end flag carrier and open more medium and long haul destinations where the real cash can be made.

Good luck getting any Star or Skyteam carriers to codeshare with BA to/from London...
 
Arion640
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:21 pm

BA777FO wrote:
The IAG Captial Markets Presentation was incorrect; there are only 3 77Ws to be delivered, not 4. They are also not due to enter service until Q3 2020, not 2019.


What’s your thoughts on a handful of second hand A380’s turning up eventually? I’ve heard from some of your colleagues they could do with 6 more ideally?
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george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:47 pm

Elshad wrote:
No, there are 4 777-300ER on order. Look at page 167 of this: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... 7686116875

It clearly shows a total of 16 300ER expected in 2020, compared to 12 now. So 4 on order.


Not the case. It’s three. This presentation is incorrect.

Here is the press release from Boeing: https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-07-19 ... -Airplanes

This order was firmed up at the end of the year for 3 frames. (Nov or Dec Boeing numbers).
 
george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:51 pm

Arion640 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
The IAG Captial Markets Presentation was incorrect; there are only 3 77Ws to be delivered, not 4. They are also not due to enter service until Q3 2020, not 2019.


What’s your thoughts on a handful of second hand A380’s turning up eventually? I’ve heard from some of your colleagues they could do with 6 more ideally?


In theory for the right price. New off the table now. As for used the ex SQ were the early overweight/not standard examples. As for a lot of others such as AF getting rid of 3-5 from lease they will be the wrong engines. Again the same with QR and the vast majority of Emirates (RR frames are very young). There simply aren’t any RR birds in good condition available. Let alone for the right price. Also the refit to BA standard is not going to be cheap. I would imagine a close to 0% chance of any more A380s going to IAG now there is no new frame options anymore.
 
jfk777
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:26 am

george77300 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
The IAG Captial Markets Presentation was incorrect; there are only 3 77Ws to be delivered, not 4. They are also not due to enter service until Q3 2020, not 2019.


What’s your thoughts on a handful of second hand A380’s turning up eventually? I’ve heard from some of your colleagues they could do with 6 more ideally?


In theory for the right price. New off the table now. As for used the ex SQ were the early overweight/not standard examples. As for a lot of others such as AF getting rid of 3-5 from lease they will be the wrong engines. Again the same with QR and the vast majority of Emirates (RR frames are very young). There simply aren’t any RR birds in good condition available. Let alone for the right price. Also the refit to BA standard is not going to be cheap. I would imagine a close to 0% chance of any more A380s going to IAG now there is no new frame options anymore.


It's time for Willie Walsh to fly to Seattle and buy his 777-9 fleet for 25 to 30 airplanes. The A380 has died and BA needs a post whale jet plan.
 
skipness1E
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:39 am

Oneworld partner Malaysia has six TRENT powered A380s they barely use and certainly don’t turn a profit on.....
 
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alancostello
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 12:47 am

skipness1E wrote:
Oneworld partner Malaysia has six TRENT powered A380s they barely use and certainly don’t turn a profit on.....


BA kicked the tires when they came up for sale the first time and didn't like the condition or the price.
 
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RayChuang
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:23 am

alancostello wrote:
BA kicked the tires when they came up for sale the first time and didn't like the condition or the price.


However, I wouldn't be surprised if BA takes the MH A380's now, especially since they could negotiate with Airbus on offsetting the refurbishment cost.
 
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flee
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:26 am

alancostello wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
Oneworld partner Malaysia has six TRENT powered A380s they barely use and certainly don’t turn a profit on.....

BA kicked the tires when they came up for sale the first time and didn't like the condition or the price.

It is most likely to be price - the Malaysia Airlines A380s have just completed heavy checks when they were about 5 years old. Then CEO Peter Bellew remarked how overbuilt the A388 was and said that it could fly "forever" with proper maintenance...

I think that the days of the A380 are gone and WW should be looking at buying the A350-1000 or B779 if they still have a large aircraft requirement.
 
EChid
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:00 am

jfk777 wrote:
Its likely the 777-9 will be needed for its capacity and floor space, it would be a great 744 replacement.

BA has already announced and purchased the replacement aircraft for their 744s. The did so years ago. It's mostly A35Ks. The 779 was not a part of that plan.

jfk777 wrote:
It's time for Willie Walsh to fly to Seattle and buy his 777-9 fleet for 25 to 30 airplanes. The A380 has died and BA needs a post whale jet plan.

As much as you seem to want the 779 to happen (and I agree, if anyone was to purchase them I think BA and QF are the most likely), BA is a long way from needing a post-A380 strategy. The oldest of the 388s is just 6 years old. BA keeps their planes for a long time (frequently 25-30 years), and the 388s will be gathering cycles slowly given their mainly long-haul use. I would guess they'll be in BA's fleet, barring some unforeseen significant change, until well past 2030/35. BA likes them and uses their capabilities, they just never needed them so much to warrant purchasing more for the price AB wanted. Also, your strategy is to replace 12 planes with 30? And besides, IAG can afford to make Boeing stew in the juices of slow 77X sales for a while before they take any action. Let's see how badly they want a sale in 7-10 years.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:28 am

EChid wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Its likely the 777-9 will be needed for its capacity and floor space, it would be a great 744 replacement.

BA has already announced and purchased the replacement aircraft for their 744s. The did so years ago. It's mostly A35Ks. The 779 was not a part of that plan.


Unless BA wants to literally halve their available seats and capacity 18 A35Ks are clearly not gonna cut it replacing 34 744s, especially since the first batch doesn't have F entirely (still useful for US routes). Even counting the 12 B78Xs in the equation (which is flawed since they will likely take over many of the 77E flying now) there's still a substantial capacity gap that will need addressing sooner rather than later.
 
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GSPFlyer
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:54 am

Channex757 wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
BAWLGW wrote:


See your point, but the 787 is a vastly different machine to the 747. And that doesn’t seem to stop airlines using the 787 as a replacement (Qantas, BA etc)

Qantas is about the only airline who publicly said they're replacing 747 with 787. BA IIRC said so for A35K but I believe not for 789.

Michael

Virgin Atlantic as well. The 789 was actually a better fit at LHR than the 744s they were replacing.
The Obsession here for like-for-like is definitely peculiar. In the planning departments, a decent load on a 789 yields much better than a half empty 744 and also gives fares an upward nudge.


I think El Al are replacing their 744 with 789's as well.
 
EChid
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:08 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
EChid wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Its likely the 777-9 will be needed for its capacity and floor space, it would be a great 744 replacement.

BA has already announced and purchased the replacement aircraft for their 744s. The did so years ago. It's mostly A35Ks. The 779 was not a part of that plan.


Unless BA wants to literally halve their available seats and capacity 18 A35Ks are clearly not gonna cut it replacing 34 744s, especially since the first batch doesn't have F entirely (still useful for US routes). Even counting the 12 B78Xs in the equation (which is flawed since they will likely take over many of the 77E flying now) there's still a substantial capacity gap that will need addressing sooner rather than later.

"Literally halve"? Not sure how you calculate that. Okay, this subject has been covered multiple other times on multiple other threads. BA has already ordered the aircraft they wish to replace the 747s with. As has been stated 100 times, we need to get over the idea that an airline must replace like for like, number for number. They have assessed their network and identified that a mix of the 77Ws (299pax), A35Ks (325ish w/o F?, ~300 with), and 78Js (~250pax) is a good mix of replacements for their aircraft, plus they have (many) more options to increase the size of their A35K fleet should they like what they're seeing and require more. BA has also recognized that reducing the number of seats they are flying into key markets can help yield, given the slot restrictions at LHR and their relative monopoly on the market.

Plus, as outlined at the beginning of these threads, BA expects to keep their 77Es for 30 years. The 78Js aren't meant to replace them. They are being delivered between 2020 and 2023 which corresponds quite neatly with the retirement of the 747s.

BA will make an order at some point, but they're covered for the 747 replacements.
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JustSomeDood
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:44 am

EChid wrote:
Plus, as outlined at the beginning of these threads, BA expects to keep their 77Es for 30 years.


A statement made in November 2015 at IAG Capital Markets Day, that's well over 3 years ago, treating that as an indication of what IAG management thinks now is being ignorant of how quickly corporate plans can and do change, given fuel prices and financing projections are a fair bit different now than in 2015. I'd be very surprised if the earliest 77Es don't start leaving the fleet a few years earlier than the 2027 date being floated around.
 
Arion640
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:32 am

EChid wrote:
JustSomeDood wrote:
EChid wrote:
BA has already announced and purchased the replacement aircraft for their 744s. The did so years ago. It's mostly A35Ks. The 779 was not a part of that plan.


Unless BA wants to literally halve their available seats and capacity 18 A35Ks are clearly not gonna cut it replacing 34 744s, especially since the first batch doesn't have F entirely (still useful for US routes). Even counting the 12 B78Xs in the equation (which is flawed since they will likely take over many of the 77E flying now) there's still a substantial capacity gap that will need addressing sooner rather than later.

"Literally halve"? Not sure how you calculate that. Okay, this subject has been covered multiple other times on multiple other threads. BA has already ordered the aircraft they wish to replace the 747s with. As has been stated 100 times, we need to get over the idea that an airline must replace like for like, number for number. They have assessed their network and identified that a mix of the 77Ws (299pax), A35Ks (325ish w/o F?, ~300 with), and 78Js (~250pax) is a good mix of replacements for their aircraft, plus they have (many) more options to increase the size of their A35K fleet should they like what they're seeing and require more. BA has also recognized that reducing the number of seats they are flying into key markets can help yield, given the slot restrictions at LHR and their relative monopoly on the market.

Plus, as outlined at the beginning of these threads, BA expects to keep their 77Es for 30 years. The 78Js aren't meant to replace them. They are being delivered between 2020 and 2023 which corresponds quite neatly with the retirement of the 747s.

BA will make an order at some point, but they're covered for the 747 replacements.


Ironically, a 300 seat A350 with F and 299 seat 77W has more seats than BA’s 275 seat 747’s.
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Elshad
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:11 am

george77300 wrote:
Elshad wrote:
No, there are 4 777-300ER on order. Look at page 167 of this: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... 7686116875

It clearly shows a total of 16 300ER expected in 2020, compared to 12 now. So 4 on order.


Not the case. It’s three. This presentation is incorrect.

Here is the press release from Boeing: https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-07-19 ... -Airplanes

This order was firmed up at the end of the year for 3 frames. (Nov or Dec Boeing numbers).


Ok, fair enough. My bad
 
george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:19 am

Elshad wrote:
george77300 wrote:
Elshad wrote:
No, there are 4 777-300ER on order. Look at page 167 of this: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.Fi ... 7686116875

It clearly shows a total of 16 300ER expected in 2020, compared to 12 now. So 4 on order.


Not the case. It’s three. This presentation is incorrect.

Here is the press release from Boeing: https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2018-07-19 ... -Airplanes

This order was firmed up at the end of the year for 3 frames. (Nov or Dec Boeing numbers).


Ok, fair enough. My bad


No problem. It was clearly a misprint on the IAG slides and lots of incorrect news releases after. Just a mistake on the part of IAG adding up numbers that was missed. It definitely is three, however.
 
Seat0F
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:32 am

...and I’ve heard it is definitely 4 arriving in 2020. 3 were ordered with an option which was taken up. So many so called “facts” on this thread. We’ll just have to count them when they arrive!
 
BA777FO
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:47 am

Seat0F wrote:
...and I’ve heard it is definitely 4 arriving in 2020. 3 were ordered with an option which was taken up. So many so called “facts” on this thread. We’ll just have to count them when they arrive!


You'd best tell the pre-ops manpower department for pilots then because they're working on a delivery of 3! Straight from the horses mouth, not a heard from, or a rumour, but from the department responsible for crewing the things!
 
VSMUT
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:52 am

JustSomeDood wrote:
EChid wrote:
Plus, as outlined at the beginning of these threads, BA expects to keep their 77Es for 30 years.


A statement made in November 2015 at IAG Capital Markets Day, that's well over 3 years ago, treating that as an indication of what IAG management thinks now is being ignorant of how quickly corporate plans can and do change, given fuel prices and financing projections are a fair bit different now than in 2015. I'd be very surprised if the earliest 77Es don't start leaving the fleet a few years earlier than the 2027 date being floated around.


I agree with that. It's a 3 year old estimate for a fleet of 46 planes originally delivered over a tight 4 year period. At current demand and production rates, it could take between 6 and 8 years to deliver 40+ replacements, meaning that they would have to start the replacement between 2 and 4 years prior. That doesn't even take into account that unexpected issues like fatigue could be popping up, taking individual airframes out of service early.
Then you have to factor in a waiting period for deliveries that could potentially stretch up to 5 years due to backlogs. At current rates, that's about as long as you would have to wait for a 787 or A350 if you have to wait at the back of the line. That puts the oldest 777-200ER at 27 years before it will be replaced. Factor in a year or 2 of negotiations between IAG and the manufacturers, and you are up to 29 years.


jfk777 wrote:
The coming A350-1000 is going to be an oddball, IAG should transfer them to Iberia as A340-600 replacements. BA's fleet will be fine with 787 and 777-9.


The logic of some people:

When discussing LEVEL, the 787 is practically a given because one other IAG airline, BA, uses it. But when discussing British Airways, the A350 is "an oddball", despite 2 IAG sister airline already or scheduled to fly them and BA about to receive the first this year...
Last edited by VSMUT on Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:53 am

jfk777 wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
There seems lots of crossover between the 787 and A350, BA's route system is not Cathay Pacific's needing 16 hour capable airplanes which the A350-900 does well but its too much plane for BA. The 787-10 is better for BA, it can fly from LHR to any destination is Asia and the Americas.


Can the 787-10 fly 13 hours including adequate reserves with a full passenger and freight load? No. And Buenos Aires and Santiago are further than Singapore.


Every long haul plane BA has doesn't have to be able to fly to EZE and Singapore only some do, BA will have plenty that can. What if BA orders the new Boeing NMA(797) ? It will not fly more than 5,000 miles, that doesn't make it a bad plane.


You’re being disingenuous with your rationale here. You previously negated the A350 saying it’s range wasn’t necessary as the 787-10 could achieve what was necessary. It can’t in many cases. There is the need for both.
come visit the south pacific
 
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frigatebird
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:50 am

BA777FO wrote:
Seat0F wrote:
...and I’ve heard it is definitely 4 arriving in 2020. 3 were ordered with an option which was taken up. So many so called “facts” on this thread. We’ll just have to count them when they arrive!


You'd best tell the pre-ops manpower department for pilots then because they're working on a delivery of 3! Straight from the horses mouth, not a heard from, or a rumour, but from the department responsible for crewing the things!

To make things even more confusing, 2 leasing componies placed orders for 77W after Farnborough:
BOC ordered 3 on December 10, 2018;
Novus Aviation Capital ordered 3 on November 30, and added 1 on December 21, 2018!

Not sure if BOC leases aircraft to BA. Novus does. So the additional 77W ordered on December 21 could be for BA. But it could also be a top up for another client. We really have to wait and see.

Back on topic, I think it's highly possible BA will wait until Airbus and Boeing announce when they will launch the new engines on the A350 and 787. Both could be candidates for 77E replacement, BA has the advantage they can afford to wait until 2027 to start replacing the largest part of their fleet.

I don't think BA needs the 777X. Surely they can use such an aircraft, but they can run their operations very well without it too. Same goes for the A350-900 by the way. Especially if a 787-10 with new engines is launched.
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Breathe
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Mon Feb 18, 2019 2:55 pm

This thread pops up at least once a year.

As has already been said, BA are in no rush to replace their 777-200ER fleet at the moment and have plenty of time to evaluate what to replace them with, when the time comes.

One advantage IAG have is that they will be operating all flavours of the 787 and A350 (with the exception of the ULR mod) to evaluate what the best plane or planes (if there is a split order) will be the best replacement. They'll probably be new variants and engine upgrades like the RR's Ultrafan to take into consideration when the time comes too and possibly the 797 on the horizon too.
 
Seat0F
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:22 pm

It has been confirmed to me by insiders that it is infact 4 new 77Ws arriving. Does anyone know the delivery dates?

As for 777-200ER replacements, BA/IAG are supposedly very close to ordering either the 777X or the A350-1000 to replace the last 12 744s, perhaps this order will also involve replacing some of the older 777-200ERs? Which way BA go with this next order could be a strong hint as to what will replace the bulk of the old 777s.
 
VSMUT
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:03 pm

Seat0F wrote:
BA/IAG are supposedly very close to ordering either the 777X or the A350-1000 to replace the last 12 744s


They have already been ordered. 12x 787-10 and 18x A350-1000. The 747 is history at BA, all have been accounted for.
 
jfk777
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:37 pm

Motorhussy wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:

Can the 787-10 fly 13 hours including adequate reserves with a full passenger and freight load? No. And Buenos Aires and Santiago are further than Singapore.


Every long haul plane BA has doesn't have to be able to fly to EZE and Singapore only some do, BA will have plenty that can. What if BA orders the new Boeing NMA(797) ? It will not fly more than 5,000 miles, that doesn't make it a bad plane.


You’re being disingenuous with your rationale here. You previously negated the A350 saying it’s range wasn’t necessary as the 787-10 could achieve what was necessary. It can’t in many cases. There is the need for both.


Motorhussy,

BA doesn't need a 16 hour capable A350-900 when a less capable 787-10 is better for their needs. BA's longest routes are about 14 hours to Buenos Aires and Santiago, if BA ever flies nonstop to Sydney then that is a completely different airplane. Many have written about the "Emiratization" of new airplanes since many are capable of flying 16 hours from very hot Dubai, but many airlines do not want to pay for all the capability. An Asia-Pacific airline needs that but a European airline doesn't.
 
george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:47 pm

Seat0F wrote:
It has been confirmed to me by insiders that it is infact 4 new 77Ws arriving. Does anyone know the delivery dates?


It’s not. You’re source is incorrect. BA themselves are expecting 3. Also only 3 ordered with Boeing currently. Insiders are reporting two deliveries end of 2019 and the last in 2020 to coincide with 777-200 (ZZZA-ZZZC) retirements. Although some rumours of this being pushed out 6-12 months but no confirmation yet.


Seat0F wrote:
As for 777-200ER replacements, BA/IAG are supposedly very close to ordering either the 777X or the A350-1000 to replace the last 12 744s, perhaps this order will also involve replacing some of the older 777-200ERs? Which way BA go with this next order could be a strong hint as to what will replace the bulk of the old 777s.


They are bound to order something soon. They are going to need a neo top up order too. As for 777-200ER they could go for more 787 (9/10) or some A350 (900/1000) or mixture.

As mentioned before it’ll be LGW 777 that are the key here. They will only have one type there. 787-9 will be massive seat loss compared to the current 3 class. 787-10 wont have the range for MRU for example (yes it can but not with the cargo they will want). A350-1000 will be far too large.

My guess is they will order some A350-900s to replace some of the 777-200ERs and that will be the LGW widebody. As for LHR it will be a mixture of more 787 (-10 in particular) and some more A350 (possibly 900 & 1000). Maybe even some 777X down the toad for the really high capacity routes.
 
george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:54 pm

VSMUT wrote:
Seat0F wrote:
BA/IAG are supposedly very close to ordering either the 777X or the A350-1000 to replace the last 12 744s


They have already been ordered. 12x 787-10 and 18x A350-1000. The 747 is history at BA, all have been accounted for.


They are going to need some more in the long run. They have 36 747s to retire (34 now as they just retired two since Novemeber) with only 30 widebodies coming. These widebodies ordered are also all smaller than the 744. They will be ordering more soon no doubt. But the 747s are around to at least 2024 with possible life extensions to be pushed out a couple years. They do have some time. Then the 777-200ERs will be next to go from the late 2020s. The 772ERs are doing at least 30 years currently.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:01 pm

george77300 wrote:
As mentioned before it’ll be LGW 777 that are the key here. They will only have one type there. 787-9 will be massive seat loss compared to the current 3 class. 787-10 wont have the range for MRU for example (yes it can but not with the cargo they will want). A350-1000 will be far too large.

My guess is they will order some A350-900s to replace some of the 777-200ERs and that will be the LGW widebody.


BA don't have much history of placing brand new aircraft at LGW. When the LGW GE 772s go (planned for 30 years old) I think the most likely replacements will be newer RR 772s, and later maybe the owned 77Ws, refurbed and transferred from LHR. Those to be replaced at LHR by 7810, 350, 3510 according to range and capacity requirements.

Regarding more A380s, clearly MH don't want theirs but also don't want to take a book loss. They may bite the bullet. If ANAs experiment with a fleet of 3 x A380 fails, they will have 3 latest spec RR A380s available in a few years time.
 
george77300
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:06 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
george77300 wrote:
As mentioned before it’ll be LGW 777 that are the key here. They will only have one type there. 787-9 will be massive seat loss compared to the current 3 class. 787-10 wont have the range for MRU for example (yes it can but not with the cargo they will want). A350-1000 will be far too large.

My guess is they will order some A350-900s to replace some of the 777-200ERs and that will be the LGW widebody.


BA don't have much history of placing brand new aircraft at LGW. When the LGW GE 772s go (planned for 30 years old) I think the most likely replacements will be newer RR 772s, and later maybe the owned 77Ws, refurbed and transferred from LHR. Those to be replaced at LHR by 7810, 350, 3510 according to range and capacity requirements.

Regarding more A380s, clearly MH don't want theirs but also don't want to take a book loss. They may bite the bullet. If ANAs experiment with a fleet of 3 x A380 fails, they will have 3 latest spec RR A380s available in a few years time.


Sort of correct. The last 777-200ERs will almost definitely be at LGW, but BA usually buy new and keep for a long time. I can’t think of the last secondhand widebody BA bought. The problem is there is nothing at LHR to replace them with. They will use the newest 772ERs at LGW in the end but when they did to go the hand-me-downs from LHR wont work. 788/789 too small. 78J will be too new and won’t quite have the range for all the routes with the cargo BA want. A35K will be far to new and the LHR 744 replacement for now. I would be surprised to see some new A359 going to LGW but that will be in the early 2030s. Unless something else is out by then.
 
BA777FO
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:24 pm

Well, having spoken to a fleet planner it turns out there will be 4 777-300ERs to be delivered. 3 were ordered in July 2018 and thr fourth was added in October 2018. The first delivery is anticipated for Q3 2020.

It also sounds like after the LGW 777-200 densification the LHR based ones will be next - some will go to 3 class in the same config as the Gatwick ones and some others will have First reduced from 14 to 8 to coincide with the 787-9 but Club, WT+ and WT will get increased seat counts. That'll start from 2020 onwards.

As for the LGW replacement, I could see a mix of 787-10s for the Caribbean and Florida and 787-9s for LIM, SJO, MLE and MRU but with increased frequencies - there are plenty of ex-Monarch slots to fill and if extra capacity comes on line or Thomas Cook sell their LGW slots that'll enable growth of.the longhaul fleet from 14 today to something like 24 in 10 years time. I believe the goal with the Monarch slots is to get to a 777 fleet there of ~18-20 aircraft.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:44 pm

jfk777 wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:
jfk777 wrote:

Every long haul plane BA has doesn't have to be able to fly to EZE and Singapore only some do, BA will have plenty that can. What if BA orders the new Boeing NMA(797) ? It will not fly more than 5,000 miles, that doesn't make it a bad plane.


You’re being disingenuous with your rationale here. You previously negated the A350 saying it’s range wasn’t necessary as the 787-10 could achieve what was necessary. It can’t in many cases. There is the need for both.


Motorhussy,

BA doesn't need a 16 hour capable A350-900 when a less capable 787-10 is better for their needs. BA's longest routes are about 14 hours to Buenos Aires and Santiago, if BA ever flies nonstop to Sydney then that is a completely different airplane. Many have written about the "Emiratization" of new airplanes since many are capable of flying 16 hours from very hot Dubai, but many airlines do not want to pay for all the capability. An Asia-Pacific airline needs that but a European airline doesn't.


While the 78X has better economic on shorter routes, that doesn't mean the A359's economics are bad... they aren't. There are plenty of A359s flying shorter routes quite happily and efficiently, and even at airlines with 78Xs on order or in the fleet already. BA does still have routes that are quite far, and using the A359 would allow either no or else very little payload restrictions. It would also allow them to fly routes that are currently unserved, perhaps ones enabled by the 3rd runway at LHR.

You say that European airlines don't need a plane with that capability, but AF (and KL for now), SK, AY, LH, SU, IB, EI, TK and VS have all ordered it (though the A35K in VS' case). That's some pretty good endorsement. Two of those airlines are BA's sisters and fly it (or will fly it) on shorter routes, IAG has a pretty good relationship with Airbus and it's hardly controversial to suggest that they would find the A359 fits BA just like IB and EI.

The bottom line is that you don't know exactly what capabilities BA wants, and it's quite a blanket statement to say that the 78X by default is better for their needs.
 
VSMUT
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:55 pm

george77300 wrote:
They are going to need some more in the long run. They have 36 747s to retire (34 now as they just retired two since November) with only 30 widebodies coming. These widebodies ordered are also all smaller than the 744. They will be ordering more soon no doubt. But the 747s are around to at least 2024 with possible life extensions to be pushed out a couple years. They do have some time.


4 planes doesn't equate a separate order for a unique fleet type. Besides, you are forgetting the 4 777-300ERs. That's quite a bit more capacity than the 3 777s they are replacing.

It is no secret that the 747 was never the right size for most of BAs needs, but it was about the only choice they had back in the day, short of MD-11s. That is why downsizing to A350s and 787s is the way they are going. The trend of downsizing 747s is happening at most operators, and British Airways is showing all signs of following the same path.
 
Seat0F
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:51 pm

I’m sorry VSMUT but you are not correct. There is an order coming for widebodies to replace the last 12 747s. Look at the IAG capital markets day presentation, all the information you need is in there.
 
jfk777
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 7:54 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
Motorhussy wrote:

You’re being disingenuous with your rationale here. You previously negated the A350 saying it’s range wasn’t necessary as the 787-10 could achieve what was necessary. It can’t in many cases. There is the need for both.


Motorhussy,

BA doesn't need a 16 hour capable A350-900 when a less capable 787-10 is better for their needs. BA's longest routes are about 14 hours to Buenos Aires and Santiago, if BA ever flies nonstop to Sydney then that is a completely different airplane. Many have written about the "Emiratization" of new airplanes since many are capable of flying 16 hours from very hot Dubai, but many airlines do not want to pay for all the capability. An Asia-Pacific airline needs that but a European airline doesn't.


While the 78X has better economic on shorter routes, that doesn't mean the A359's economics are bad... they aren't. There are plenty of A359s flying shorter routes quite happily and efficiently, and even at airlines with 78Xs on order or in the fleet already. BA does still have routes that are quite far, and using the A359 would allow either no or else very little payload restrictions. It would also allow them to fly routes that are currently unserved, perhaps ones enabled by the 3rd runway at LHR.

You say that European airlines don't need a plane with that capability, but AF (and KL for now), SK, AY, LH, SU, IB, EI, TK and VS have all ordered it (though the A35K in VS' case). That's some pretty good endorsement. Two of those airlines are BA's sisters and fly it (or will fly it) on shorter routes, IAG has a pretty good relationship with Airbus and it's hardly controversial to suggest that they would find the A359 fits BA just like IB and EI.

The bottom line is that you don't know exactly what capabilities BA wants, and it's quite a blanket statement to say that the 78X by default is better for their needs.


Does it really surprise you that IB and Aer Lingus are A350 operators when they have been A330 and A340 operators long before any merger with BA or IAG. Aer Lingus needs an A350 like a car needs a 12 cylinder engine unless it suddenly discovers Asia. Aer Lingus to OneWorld Pacific hubs should happen. The Irish airline needs a 300 passenger plane capable of flying to LAX, MIA and JFK in their current route system.

IB is probably a good A350-900 and -1000 customer because they the capacity and performance at Latin America's airports which in many cases are challenging.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:35 pm

jfk777 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
jfk777 wrote:

Motorhussy,

BA doesn't need a 16 hour capable A350-900 when a less capable 787-10 is better for their needs. BA's longest routes are about 14 hours to Buenos Aires and Santiago, if BA ever flies nonstop to Sydney then that is a completely different airplane. Many have written about the "Emiratization" of new airplanes since many are capable of flying 16 hours from very hot Dubai, but many airlines do not want to pay for all the capability. An Asia-Pacific airline needs that but a European airline doesn't.


While the 78X has better economic on shorter routes, that doesn't mean the A359's economics are bad... they aren't. There are plenty of A359s flying shorter routes quite happily and efficiently, and even at airlines with 78Xs on order or in the fleet already. BA does still have routes that are quite far, and using the A359 would allow either no or else very little payload restrictions. It would also allow them to fly routes that are currently unserved, perhaps ones enabled by the 3rd runway at LHR.

You say that European airlines don't need a plane with that capability, but AF (and KL for now), SK, AY, LH, SU, IB, EI, TK and VS have all ordered it (though the A35K in VS' case). That's some pretty good endorsement. Two of those airlines are BA's sisters and fly it (or will fly it) on shorter routes, IAG has a pretty good relationship with Airbus and it's hardly controversial to suggest that they would find the A359 fits BA just like IB and EI.

The bottom line is that you don't know exactly what capabilities BA wants, and it's quite a blanket statement to say that the 78X by default is better for their needs.


Does it really surprise you that IB and Aer Lingus are A350 operators when they have been A330 and A340 operators long before any merger with BA or IAG. Aer Lingus needs an A350 like a car needs a 12 cylinder engine unless it suddenly discovers Asia. Aer Lingus to OneWorld Pacific hubs should happen. The Irish airline needs a 300 passenger plane capable of flying to LAX, MIA and JFK in their current route system.

IB is probably a good A350-900 and -1000 customer because they the capacity and performance at Latin America's airports which in many cases are challenging.


Who are you to say what EI does or doesn't need? A derated A359 is perfectly capable and efficient for their needs, which is why they've ordered it.

It doesn't surprise me, no. Does it surprise you that an airline with a large 777-200ER fleet and A350-1000s on order is a good candidate for the A350-900?
 
jfk777
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:17 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

While the 78X has better economic on shorter routes, that doesn't mean the A359's economics are bad... they aren't. There are plenty of A359s flying shorter routes quite happily and efficiently, and even at airlines with 78Xs on order or in the fleet already. BA does still have routes that are quite far, and using the A359 would allow either no or else very little payload restrictions. It would also allow them to fly routes that are currently unserved, perhaps ones enabled by the 3rd runway at LHR.

You say that European airlines don't need a plane with that capability, but AF (and KL for now), SK, AY, LH, SU, IB, EI, TK and VS have all ordered it (though the A35K in VS' case). That's some pretty good endorsement. Two of those airlines are BA's sisters and fly it (or will fly it) on shorter routes, IAG has a pretty good relationship with Airbus and it's hardly controversial to suggest that they would find the A359 fits BA just like IB and EI.

The bottom line is that you don't know exactly what capabilities BA wants, and it's quite a blanket statement to say that the 78X by default is better for their needs.


Does it really surprise you that IB and Aer Lingus are A350 operators when they have been A330 and A340 operators long before any merger with BA or IAG. Aer Lingus needs an A350 like a car needs a 12 cylinder engine unless it suddenly discovers Asia. Aer Lingus to OneWorld Pacific hubs should happen. The Irish airline needs a 300 passenger plane capable of flying to LAX, MIA and JFK in their current route system.

IB is probably a good A350-900 and -1000 customer because they the capacity and performance at Latin America's airports which in many cases are challenging.


Who are you to say what EI does or doesn't need? A derated A359 is perfectly capable and efficient for their needs, which is why they've ordered it.

It doesn't surprise me, no. Does it surprise you that an airline with a large 777-200ER fleet and A350-1000s on order is a good candidate for the A350-900?


I didn't know Aer Lingus flew 777-200ER, or are you confusing the for BA ?
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:21 pm

jfk777 wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
jfk777 wrote:

Does it really surprise you that IB and Aer Lingus are A350 operators when they have been A330 and A340 operators long before any merger with BA or IAG. Aer Lingus needs an A350 like a car needs a 12 cylinder engine unless it suddenly discovers Asia. Aer Lingus to OneWorld Pacific hubs should happen. The Irish airline needs a 300 passenger plane capable of flying to LAX, MIA and JFK in their current route system.

IB is probably a good A350-900 and -1000 customer because they the capacity and performance at Latin America's airports which in many cases are challenging.


Who are you to say what EI does or doesn't need? A derated A359 is perfectly capable and efficient for their needs, which is why they've ordered it.

It doesn't surprise me, no. Does it surprise you that an airline with a large 777-200ER fleet and A350-1000s on order is a good candidate for the A350-900?


I didn't know Aer Lingus flew 777-200ER, or are you confusing the for BA ?


It could be about any airline, but the question was whether the A359 is a good fit for an airline with 77Es in the fleet and A35Ks on order. Given the context of the discussion I think you should know who I meant.
 
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scbriml
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:32 pm

jfk777 wrote:
I didn't know Aer Lingus flew 777-200ER, or are you confusing the for BA ?


It's pretty clear that MrHMSH was referring to BA. :yes:
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Breathe
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:14 am

Perhaps the A330neo could even have a place to replace part of the fleet too.
 
7673mech
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:49 am

https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/26/bri ... continues/

May 777X is not out of picture.
No need for 330NEO with A359 and 787 fleet.
 
StudiodeKadent
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 7:50 am

MrHMSH wrote:
While the 78X has better economic on shorter routes, that doesn't mean the A359's economics are bad... they aren't. There are plenty of A359s flying shorter routes quite happily and efficiently, and even at airlines with 78Xs on order or in the fleet already. BA does still have routes that are quite far, and using the A359 would allow either no or else very little payload restrictions. It would also allow them to fly routes that are currently unserved, perhaps ones enabled by the 3rd runway at LHR.

You say that European airlines don't need a plane with that capability, but AF (and KL for now), SK, AY, LH, SU, IB, EI, TK and VS have all ordered it (though the A35K in VS' case). That's some pretty good endorsement. Two of those airlines are BA's sisters and fly it (or will fly it) on shorter routes, IAG has a pretty good relationship with Airbus and it's hardly controversial to suggest that they would find the A359 fits BA just like IB and EI.

The bottom line is that you don't know exactly what capabilities BA wants, and it's quite a blanket statement to say that the 78X by default is better for their needs.


The 787-10 is roughly in the same size category as the A350-900 (its actually a TINY bit bigger but they're in the same ballpark). As BA is going to have A350-1000s, and already has 787-9s, then commonality is a tie (although perhaps slight lean to 787-10 given its more common with the -9 than the A350-900 is with the A350-1000). The only real distinction between the two frames, from BA's vantage point, is that the A350-900 has substantially more payload/range performance.

However, BA are an airline with high premium demand for the most part. Not only that but the only really long routes BA fly are to South America, and even those routes are more within the brochure range of the 787-10 (yes, brochure range is very inexact, but the point is that BA doesn't do ULH flying).

The A350-900 is a fantastic jet. But do BA need something that's in that particular size category AND has all that performance? Especially when BA aircraft are typically quite low-density? How much cargo does BA haul to South America? Are BA planning on flying directly to Australia/NZ/the South Pacific any time soon? Does BA absolutely require that specific size of aircraft for South America or can it upgauge to a bigger jet/downgauge to lower frequency (we all know because of LHR it is hard for BA to increase frequencies)?

In theory I could see BA perhaps getting some of each if they REALLY need the performance on certain routes/have heavy cargo demands. But it seems to me that this is Boeing's order to lose.
 
oldannyboy
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:28 am

BAWLGW wrote:
BA777FO wrote:
It's interesting as you get different stories depending on who you listen to. Rumours suggest the current COO would have binned the A350 if it wasn't too late when he joined the airline. Others say the A350 order was to leverage Boeing in giving a big discount on the 777X.

Most 777-200ERs have at least 10 years left. The 777-200s will leave the fleet to be replaced by 777-300ERs from Q3 2020. Most, if not all 4-class RR LHR based 777-200ERs are going to be converted to 3-class aircraft, dropping First. The first batch of A350-1000s are also coming without First in a 3 class configuration. That could well be an intended replacement over time. The 787-9 is almost exactly the same capacity wise as a 4-class 777-200ER. That's virtually a ready made replacement with a 20% fuel burn saving and as all 787-9s have crew rest facilities they wouldn't be restricted like the current unbunked GE 777-200ERs.

The Heathrow-based replacements for the 777-200ER are quite straight forward therefore with a mix of 787-9/10s and A350s. The 777X isn't completely necessary. The difficult bit might be replacing the LGW based 777s. They'll want to keep it to one type, so A350 or B787 but not both. The 787-9 would be a big capacity reductiom versus the new densified 777s and at some airfields (notably SJO and LIM) it might not have the performance. The 787-10 I don't think will have the legs to take a full load to MRU, or LIM for that matter. The A350-1000 might be too big for somewhere like SKB or GND? I'm not sure. But again, I've heard of performance difficulties with the Cathay A350-900 between HKG and LGW so the -1000 would definitely struggle with LIM and SJO.

BA seem very happy with the 787 (engine issues aside) and I can see a big top up order at some point. The 777-300ER may well grow in numbers if some relatively cheap short term leases pop up. It's a decent, capable aircraft that suits just about anywhere on the BA LHR network.

An order should happen sometime this summer/autumn - but that's been said for the past 18 months now!




I agree, the LGW fleet replacement will be a difficult task. However if they were/if to scoop DY’s slots after they go down the pan (??) or buy MT’s Gatwick operation I can imagine a order of 788 and use the extra slots to add frequencies and start up new destinations.


You know, my take LONG term, is that BA will eventually substitute the densified Gatters 772s with hand-me-down 773ERs when they will have built a substantial Heathrow based fleet of 787/8/9/10s , A35Ks, and OF COURSE 777Xs...
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:13 am

StudiodeKadent wrote:
The 787-10 is roughly in the same size category as the A350-900 (its actually a TINY bit bigger but they're in the same ballpark). As BA is going to have A350-1000s, and already has 787-9s, then commonality is a tie (although perhaps slight lean to 787-10 given its more common with the -9 than the A350-900 is with the A350-1000).


The A359 and A35K are close enough that I really don't think BA will factor commonality into it at all, it will come down to other factors.

The only real distinction between the two frames, from BA's vantage point, is that the A350-900 has substantially more payload/range performance.


You'll really upset a poster on the '78X needs an MTOW increase' thread...

However, BA are an airline with high premium demand for the most part. Not only that but the only really long routes BA fly are to South America, and even those routes are more within the brochure range of the 787-10 (yes, brochure range is very inexact, but the point is that BA doesn't do ULH flying).


They have a fairly large presence in Asia, a smallish but still important presence in S. America and S. Africa is quite important to them as well. The A35K may be ULH-capable, but even if you don't use the full range you can still fill it to the brim with cargo and fly very far. Virtually all of BA's routes would be within range of a fully loaded A359, but not all of them will within range of a fully-loaded 78X. The Far East is far away enough that the 78X's advantage might diminish, I believe that at 4500nm it's not clear-cut (but would need someone else to clarify this).

The A350-900 is a fantastic jet. But do BA need something that's in that particular size category AND has all that performance? Especially when BA aircraft are typically quite low-density? How much cargo does BA haul to South America? Are BA planning on flying directly to Australia/NZ/the South Pacific any time soon? Does BA absolutely require that specific size of aircraft for South America or can it upgauge to a bigger jet/downgauge to lower frequency (we all know because of LHR it is hard for BA to increase frequencies)?


BA have quite happily used 77Es at the expense of A333s (which is a neat parallel between the 78X and A359), IMO they want some flexibility in their fleet, and so I don't think having a long-range option at that size is a bad idea. It's worth noting that there are quite a few European airlines using the A350 on shorter routes.

[/quote]In theory I could see BA perhaps getting some of each if they REALLY need the performance on certain routes/have heavy cargo demands. But it seems to me that this is Boeing's order to lose.[/quote]

It may well be Boeing's order to lose, but don't forget that IAG has a good relationship with Airbus and has placed a few A359 orders with them.
 
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scbriml
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:18 am

MrHMSH wrote:
but don't forget that IAG has a good relationship with Airbus and has placed a few A359 orders with them.


And a lot of options for more.
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ClassicLover
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:51 am

jfk777 wrote:
Does it really surprise you that IB and Aer Lingus are A350 operators when they have been A330 and A340 operators long before any merger with BA or IAG. Aer Lingus needs an A350 like a car needs a 12 cylinder engine unless it suddenly discovers Asia. Aer Lingus to OneWorld Pacific hubs should happen. The Irish airline needs a 300 passenger plane capable of flying to LAX, MIA and JFK in their current route system.


Well, Aer Lingus don't operate the Airbus A350.

They also have no plans to introduce them into their fleet. They're staying with the A330s. I believe the EI order is now an IAG order and is destined for Iberia.

MrHMSH wrote:
Who are you to say what EI does or doesn't need? A derated A359 is perfectly capable and efficient for their needs, which is why they've ordered it.


Well, as above. EI don't need it. The long haul fleet will be Airbus A330s and Airbus A321neo LR aircraft according to the plan for the next several years.
I do enjoy a spot of flying, especially when it's not in economy!
 
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Revelation
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:55 am

eamondzhang wrote:
BAWLGW wrote:
garf25 wrote:
Still too many comparisons on here of the 350 v the 787.
The 787 is closer the 330. The 350 more towards the 777.

They are quite different machines.

See your point, but the 787 is a vastly different machine to the 747. And that doesn’t seem to stop airlines using the 787 as a replacement (Qantas, BA etc)

Qantas is about the only airline who publicly said they're replacing 747 with 787. BA IIRC said so for A35K but I believe not for 789.

Actually BA said they will be replacing some 747 with 78X on the day they ordered 78X. It shouldn't be a surprise. 78X is the a very efficient TATL people bomber. Many airlines shifted 747s into shorter ranged roles as they aged to reduce the impact of their high fuel burn. BA had a large number of 744s and many ended up in TATL service. Switching over to 78X will greatly improve efficiency and in some cases improve yields by reducing supply.
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Eyad89
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:03 pm

7673mech wrote:
https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/26/british-airways-considers-777x-as-747-retirement-continues/

May 777X is not out of picture.
No need for 330NEO with A359 and 787 fleet.



They could be taking the 19 delivery slots from the canceled EY order.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 292
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Re: BA’s 777-200ER replacement?

Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:18 pm

Eyad89 wrote:
7673mech wrote:
https://airlinegeeks.com/2019/02/26/british-airways-considers-777x-as-747-retirement-continues/

May 777X is not out of picture.
No need for 330NEO with A359 and 787 fleet.



They could be taking the 19 delivery slots from the canceled EY order.


I often wondered whether Airbus or Boeing has any incentive to sell the EY cancelled order for a steep discount in order to keep the order book at the same number. If so IAG should try to negotiate a good price. BA can do with some A350 to replace more B777 and B77X to replace some B744.

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