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usairways85
Posts: 4164
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:28 am

chonetsao wrote:
According to UK Civil Aviation Authority, in December there were 36626 passengers travelled between London and Philadelphia. So daily 1181 passengers. AA's A330 can seat 291 passengers. And BA has 275 seats daily. So that is 857 seats per day or 1714 seats per return journey. Average load thus is 68.9%. If you minus non-rev, the real figure is close to 62%-65%. And my personal information gathered indicate that BA has much higher passenger loads. If you discount the holiday high loading days, AA's average loading is well below 50%.

So from a passenger loading point of view, PHL is the worst performing transatlantic route between USA and London Heathrow.

The load numbers deduced from the raw numbers is subject at best unless you went back and calculate exactly what aircraft flew the route everyday in December. As mentioned the holiday schedule creates all sorts of anomalies so you cannot just simply say every day was 2x 333 and 1x 744 Hi-J and get your load %.

And loads don't equal yield.
 
Newbiepilot
Posts: 3642
Joined: Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:18 pm

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 3:40 am

There isn’t any year round low cost competition from PHL to London or Even Europe. Without competition from Virgin Atlantic, Delta, United or Norwegian, yields shouldn’t be too bad.
 
acentauri
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 5:39 am

chonetsao wrote:
acentauri wrote:
And Like [b]acentuari[/b] said (above): "AA can't dump the 333s until they have replacements now can they ?? The 787s to replace the 333s and 767s will BEGIN arriving at PHL in January and are part of the 4/2018 new aircraft order."


Plus, I think the new order of B788 won't arrive until late 2019, not January. If any B788 is moved to PHL, it would be the current delivered B788.


That is not correct, the first 3 787s will begin arriving at PHL in January 2019. Further, back to your earlier (IMO) flawed analysis regarding the (unique) PHL-LHR performance in December. Why not come back after you do the same analysis (Using the UK data) and the total number of flights/aircraft seats for SEA, PHX, IAH, DTW, DFW, BOS, so we have some basis for your claim that PHL's flights to LHR are doing much worse than elsewhere - in December. Remember to use the worse case scenarios, like you did for PHL (2 x AA330/1xBA747/36.6K passengers), Example: BOS - 7 Daily LHR flights (VS (2), DL (1) BA/AA (4). Total Passengers: 61K. Your suggestion that PHL's trans-atlantic flights should be moved to CLT, (again IMO) demonstrates a lack of understanding regarding AA's Hub structure, or a hidden agenda, or both. :wave: :wave:
 
Boof02671
Posts: 2199
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2016 12:15 am

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:13 am

January of 2019 has come and gone.

They pushed back the 787s coming to PHL.
 
acentauri
Posts: 308
Joined: Wed Jun 22, 2016 12:35 am

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 6:19 am

Boof02671 wrote:
January of 2019 has come and gone.

They pushed back the 787s coming to PHL.

Obviously, I meant January 2020 - too late to edit, although this thread has also come and gone.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 679
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:02 am

acentauri wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
acentauri wrote:
And Like [b]acentuari[/b] said (above): "AA can't dump the 333s until they have replacements now can they ?? The 787s to replace the 333s and 767s will BEGIN arriving at PHL in January and are part of the 4/2018 new aircraft order."


Plus, I think the new order of B788 won't arrive until late 2019, not January. If any B788 is moved to PHL, it would be the current delivered B788.


That is not correct, the first 3 787s will begin arriving at PHL in January 2019. Further, back to your earlier (IMO) flawed analysis regarding the (unique) PHL-LHR performance in December. Why not come back after you do the same analysis (Using the UK data) and the total number of flights/aircraft seats for SEA, PHX, IAH, DTW, DFW, BOS, so we have some basis for your claim that PHL's flights to LHR are doing much worse than elsewhere - in December. Remember to use the worse case scenarios, like you did for PHL (2 x AA330/1xBA747/36.6K passengers), Example: BOS - 7 Daily LHR flights (VS (2), DL (1) BA/AA (4). Total Passengers: 61K. Your suggestion that PHL's trans-atlantic flights should be moved to CLT, (again IMO) demonstrates a lack of understanding regarding AA's Hub structure, or a hidden agenda, or both. :wave: :wave:


Read again, I never said PHL flight should be moved to CLT. I said AA should have a premium heavy and less Y seat counts B788 for ORD/CLT/PHL-LHR flight. Maybe another poster suggested that, certainly not me.

Also, I have said PHL is one of the worst performing flight between USA-LHR on AA (or maybe I have not made that clear enough), it has never involved with other alliances. You are assuming too much here.

The analysis is not flawed. The hard number is there. I choose December as it is the last month when numbers is available. January is not out yet when I posted the number. I also give you the summer month between June to August.

If you have a chance, ask any AA employee which London route is best for stand-by for a coach seat, and I will be intrigued to hear the answer.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 679
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Mon Feb 25, 2019 9:09 am

usairways85 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
According to UK Civil Aviation Authority, in December there were 36626 passengers travelled between London and Philadelphia. So daily 1181 passengers. AA's A330 can seat 291 passengers. And BA has 275 seats daily. So that is 857 seats per day or 1714 seats per return journey. Average load thus is 68.9%. If you minus non-rev, the real figure is close to 62%-65%. And my personal information gathered indicate that BA has much higher passenger loads. If you discount the holiday high loading days, AA's average loading is well below 50%.

So from a passenger loading point of view, PHL is the worst performing transatlantic route between USA and London Heathrow.

The load numbers deduced from the raw numbers is subject at best unless you went back and calculate exactly what aircraft flew the route everyday in December. As mentioned the holiday schedule creates all sorts of anomalies so you cannot just simply say every day was 2x 333 and 1x 744 Hi-J and get your load %.

And loads don't equal yield.


Nobody is disputing loads don't equal yield. I think everyone is agreeing with that. That is why I carefully said, [from a passenger loading point of view].

And I only talked about loading factor. The operational metric include passenger load factor too. AA has to publish the load factor by geography market. When a route is constantly below par, it drags down the average loading factor.

Of course, if you have any numbers showing AA's yield on this route, please do share with us and prove us doubters wrong.

Plus, all flight history is traceable online. If you can prove any flight was not operating, I am happy to make amend. But we all agree AA and BA both kept filed schedule unless otherwise.
 
usairways85
Posts: 4164
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2001 11:59 am

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:19 am

chonetsao wrote:
Nobody is disputing loads don't equal yield. I think everyone is agreeing with that. That is why I carefully said, [from a passenger loading point of view].

And I only talked about loading factor. The operational metric include passenger load factor too. AA has to publish the load factor by geography market. When a route is constantly below par, it drags down the average loading factor.

Of course, if you have any numbers showing AA's yield on this route, please do share with us and prove us doubters wrong.

Plus, all flight history is traceable online. If you can prove any flight was not operating, I am happy to make amend. But we all agree AA and BA both kept filed schedule unless otherwise.

I believe you are using UK CAA Table 12 to pull these numbers.

The fine print of Table 12
(1) Traffic is published for each point pair, where scheduled traffic was reported.
(2) These figures are based on the origin and destination of passengers as reported to UK airport authorities by UK and foreign airlines. Operators are required to report in respect of each service operated,
the point of uplift and discharge of each passenger. The figures may not reflect a passenger's entire air journey: the point at which a passenger disembarks from a particular service may not represent his
ultimate destination.
(3) Although operators are asked to report all passenger journeys, in some cases the actual point of uplift or discharge is not recorded. In such cases all passengers are allocated to the end point of the
service, i.e. the aircraft's origin or ultimate destination. In the case of the USA, all traffic is recorded to or from gateway points specified in the Bermuda II agreement and subsequent amendments until
March 2008, when this agreement will no longer be in force. The figures in this table include all passengers carried on scheduled and chartered services excluding those carried on aircraft chartered by
Government Departments.


If I understand points 2 and 3 (and I may be mistaken), the 36,626 number is the O&D paxs between LHR-PHL. Not the actual butt in seat passenger count including those on connections beyond PHL or LHR.
 
chonetsao
Posts: 679
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2005 3:55 pm

Re: Is AA's PHL-LHR the worst performing LHR route?

Tue Feb 26, 2019 9:34 am

usairways85 wrote:
chonetsao wrote:
Nobody is disputing loads don't equal yield. I think everyone is agreeing with that. That is why I carefully said, [from a passenger loading point of view].

And I only talked about loading factor. The operational metric include passenger load factor too. AA has to publish the load factor by geography market. When a route is constantly below par, it drags down the average loading factor.

Of course, if you have any numbers showing AA's yield on this route, please do share with us and prove us doubters wrong.

Plus, all flight history is traceable online. If you can prove any flight was not operating, I am happy to make amend. But we all agree AA and BA both kept filed schedule unless otherwise.

I believe you are using UK CAA Table 12 to pull these numbers.

The fine print of Table 12
(1) Traffic is published for each point pair, where scheduled traffic was reported.
(2) These figures are based on the origin and destination of passengers as reported to UK airport authorities by UK and foreign airlines. Operators are required to report in respect of each service operated,
the point of uplift and discharge of each passenger. The figures may not reflect a passenger's entire air journey: the point at which a passenger disembarks from a particular service may not represent his
ultimate destination.
(3) Although operators are asked to report all passenger journeys, in some cases the actual point of uplift or discharge is not recorded. In such cases all passengers are allocated to the end point of the
service, i.e. the aircraft's origin or ultimate destination. In the case of the USA, all traffic is recorded to or from gateway points specified in the Bermuda II agreement and subsequent amendments until
March 2008, when this agreement will no longer be in force. The figures in this table include all passengers carried on scheduled and chartered services excluding those carried on aircraft chartered by
Government Departments.


If I understand points 2 and 3 (and I may be mistaken), the 36,626 number is the O&D paxs between LHR-PHL. Not the actual butt in seat passenger count including those on connections beyond PHL or LHR.


You read the CAA's definition wrong. Before I report the numbers, I read the article 2 and 3 several times to understand. What CAA is saying, is that airline needs to report entire journey, but the figure in CAA's reporting, I quote,
The figures may not reflect a passenger's entire air journey: the point at which a passenger disembarks from a particular service may not represent his ultimate destination.
, then
Although operators are asked to report all passenger journeys, in some cases the actual point of uplift or discharge is not recorded. In such cases all passengers are allocated to the end point of the
service, i.e. the aircraft's origin or ultimate destination.
What CAA is doing is to simply ask airlines to report the passenger figures between the city pairs (any points to UK) and the disembarkation points. It is not about LHR/MAN O&D, it is about how many passengers one airline carried between the departure points in UK and to its destination.

The language is somewhat confusing is because there are several points for departure in UK (CAA also records UK domestic and UK-European flights), and there were flights like LON-BKK-TPE stopover service (Thus in this case actual point of uplift or discharge may not be recorded). Also as USA carriers they fly people from LONDON to PHL and then onwards to ORD/DFW. In the latter case, CAA only receive reporting on the LHR-PHL journey. Any people took PHL-ORD/DFW as part of their ticket is not counted as LON-ORD/DFW (thus why CAA said only report passenger figures between the city pairs, any points to UK and the disembarkation points).

If you want city pair O&D figures, you need to go to OAG.

CAA's figure is unique UK points of departure by flight segment. Its passenger figure is very factual in reporting total passenger numbers on a flight segment that between any UK departure point and its immediate disembarkation points.

And I don't see how you can dispute the figures. You really need to understand CAA's language carefully. It took me a while to learn and to understand. Maybe you need some time to study too.

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