caliboy93
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Iran Air without embargo?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:44 am

So what are your hypothesis on what Iran Air would look like had there never been a Western embargo? If they could have ordered all those Boeings and Airbuses?
 
AS737MAX
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:10 am

Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.

Even if the current administration had not removed the United States from the JCPOA, it may not have even been enough time to deliver a substantial amount of aircraft from either Airbus or Boeing. This wouldn't even take into account the issues that could still have persisted over sourcing parts - the DY 737 just got out of Shiraz after two months.

Even with modern aircraft, I'm sure that many airports and countries would blacklist IR. The Thai government was just rejected by the FAA, and we have far better relations with Thailand and they already have modern B and A aircraft. In essence, those transiting over the Middle East may not have wanted to connect through a fairly restrictive and ambiguous state even pre-revolution. The formerly British gulf protectorates have been far more accommodating to Western interests. I might see IR's potential as more of regional connector and major European market type of network.
 
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LTU932
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 12:45 pm

The Thai government being rejected by the FAA sounds very misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but AFAIK the FAA downgrading Thailand is simply for safety measures mostly related to their airports, which affects any Thai airline. A similar situation happened with Guatemala, which is something that impedes local airlines to start new services to the US. US airlines however can still serve Thailand (and Guatemala) IIRC.

In the case of Iran, that is an outright ban on both country and their airlines, pretty much because of the economic sanctions. They are banned from even touching the US period (except if it is the yearly VIP flight to the United Nations General Assemply perhaps). IR can still fly into the EU but even with JCPOA, Germany has recently banned Mahan Air because of safety reasons. Even before JCPOA, IR had regular service to the EU (I remember HAM had regular flights to Tehran before I moved away).
Sometimes the only thing more dangerous than a question is an answer. - Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 208
 
TheEuphorian
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:03 pm

LTU932 wrote:
The Thai government being rejected by the FAA sounds very misleading. Correct me if I am wrong, but AFAIK the FAA downgrading Thailand is simply for safety measures mostly related to their airports, which affects any Thai airline. A similar situation happened with Guatemala, which is something that impedes local airlines to start new services to the US. US airlines however can still serve Thailand (and Guatemala) IIRC.

In the case of Iran, that is an outright ban on both country and their airlines, pretty much because of the economic sanctions. They are banned from even touching the US period (except if it is the yearly VIP flight to the United Nations General Assemply perhaps). IR can still fly into the EU but even with JCPOA, Germany has recently banned Mahan Air because of safety reasons. Even before JCPOA, IR had regular service to the EU (I remember HAM had regular flights to Tehran before I moved away).

What is odd is that while Thailand is still in FAA Category 2, Vietnam got Category 1 somehow despite their aviation-related infrastructure being even worse than Thailand.
 
opticalilyushin
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Tue Mar 05, 2019 3:15 pm

Iran/IR at one early point had plans to develop a hub and network that would have been as big as the ME3
 
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FlyRow
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Tue Mar 05, 2019 4:48 pm

They would be a very major player , Imagine DXB/DOH/AUH but with a very large home/domestic market and you get a ballpark picture. But that is if they could have started this model 10-15 years a go. The market now is saturated, but with the domestic market they could become a nice player.

Interesting topic this, sad that there is a 99% chance it will derail and be about politics/stereotypes =(
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sonicruiser
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:41 pm

FlyRow wrote:
They would be a very major player , Imagine DXB/DOH/AUH but with a very large home/domestic market and you get a ballpark picture. But that is if they could have started this model 10-15 years a go. The market now is saturated, but with the domestic market they could become a nice player.


So TK?
 
blacksoviet
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Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2016 10:50 am

Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:14 am

AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.

Even if the current administration had not removed the United States from the JCPOA, it may not have even been enough time to deliver a substantial amount of aircraft from either Airbus or Boeing. This wouldn't even take into account the issues that could still have persisted over sourcing parts - the DY 737 just got out of Shiraz after two months.

Even with modern aircraft, I'm sure that many airports and countries would blacklist IR. The Thai government was just rejected by the FAA, and we have far better relations with Thailand and they already have modern B and A aircraft. In essence, those transiting over the Middle East may not have wanted to connect through a fairly restrictive and ambiguous state even pre-revolution. The formerly British gulf protectorates have been far more accommodating to Western interests. I might see IR's potential as more of regional connector and major European market type of network.

Does the Iran Air 747SP have enough range to do LAX-IKA?
 
AS737MAX
Posts: 455
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:27 am

blacksoviet wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.

Even if the current administration had not removed the United States from the JCPOA, it may not have even been enough time to deliver a substantial amount of aircraft from either Airbus or Boeing. This wouldn't even take into account the issues that could still have persisted over sourcing parts - the DY 737 just got out of Shiraz after two months.

Even with modern aircraft, I'm sure that many airports and countries would blacklist IR. The Thai government was just rejected by the FAA, and we have far better relations with Thailand and they already have modern B and A aircraft. In essence, those transiting over the Middle East may not have wanted to connect through a fairly restrictive and ambiguous state even pre-revolution. The formerly British gulf protectorates have been far more accommodating to Western interests. I might see IR's potential as more of regional connector and major European market type of network.

Does the Iran Air 747SP have enough range to do LAX-IKA?


Given the specs from wikipedia, they list 5,830 nmi / 6,710 statue miles and LAX-IKA comes in at 7,612 miles. Makes me wonder if it was only ever hypothetical given another longer range aircraft. Would need a 777 at least today.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:37 am

AS737MAX wrote:
blacksoviet wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.

Even if the current administration had not removed the United States from the JCPOA, it may not have even been enough time to deliver a substantial amount of aircraft from either Airbus or Boeing. This wouldn't even take into account the issues that could still have persisted over sourcing parts - the DY 737 just got out of Shiraz after two months.

Even with modern aircraft, I'm sure that many airports and countries would blacklist IR. The Thai government was just rejected by the FAA, and we have far better relations with Thailand and they already have modern B and A aircraft. In essence, those transiting over the Middle East may not have wanted to connect through a fairly restrictive and ambiguous state even pre-revolution. The formerly British gulf protectorates have been far more accommodating to Western interests. I might see IR's potential as more of regional connector and major European market type of network.

Does the Iran Air 747SP have enough range to do LAX-IKA?


Given the specs from wikipedia, they list 5,830 nmi / 6,710 statue miles and LAX-IKA comes in at 7,612 miles. Makes me wonder if it was only ever hypothetical given another longer range aircraft. Would need a 777 at least today.

They would probably have to make the occasional fuel stop due to headwinds.
 
AntonioMartin
Posts: 527
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:08 am

Since you're asking......I guess I can see IKA-JFK-LAX without passenger rights on the US leg. Maybe DTT service too...maybe.

I think they would codeshare with one of the US big 3 to push passengers into IR aircraft from cities they would not serve due to range or passenger numbers such as Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, etc.

I wonder if it would be feasible to have service to Latin America? I know Caracas failed...
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:32 pm

AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.
.


If we are considering a scenario where, politically and socially, there was no revolution and Iran remained a friend of the West, then IR today would be substantially larger than QR, EK and EY. In fact, it is plausible that these three carriers would never have been founded. You have to consider that, economically, Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have grown and flourished due to their relative stability in the ME - a position which Iran used to serve prior to the revolution and which it would have otherwise continued to serve.

Even back in the 1970's, Tehran's new airport (now IKA) was planned to be one of the world's largest airports - a huge terminal complex and at least four 14,000ft+ runways. Imagine Emirates crossed with Turkish, but 20 years sooner - global reach, massive O/D and a huge domestic network. It is almost certain that by now they would be one of the world's largest airlines.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
AS737MAX
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Fri Mar 08, 2019 10:58 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.
.


If we are considering a scenario where, politically and socially, there was no revolution and Iran remained a friend of the West, then IR today would be substantially larger than QR, EK and EY. In fact, it is plausible that these three carriers would never have been founded. You have to consider that, economically, Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have grown and flourished due to their relative stability in the ME - a position which Iran used to serve prior to the revolution and which it would have otherwise continued to serve.

Even back in the 1970's, Tehran's new airport (now IKA) was planned to be one of the world's largest airports - a huge terminal complex and at least four 14,000ft+ runways. Imagine Emirates crossed with Turkish, but 20 years sooner - global reach, massive O/D and a huge domestic network. It is almost certain that by now they would be one of the world's largest airlines.


Come to think of it, you're probably spot on. Given Western relations with Iran, there would have been little need for the UK to back the tiny gulf states.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:41 am

PlymSpotter wrote:
AS737MAX wrote:
Not sure if this thread will get kept or moved, but I'm actually writing a paper about this for one of my classes right now. Certainly IR's issues began when the revolution ultimately locked out the rest of the world. The Iranian civil aviation market consists of an interesting network, and perhaps they may have been able to develop a hub to compete with, but not rival the likes of what have become the QR-DOH, EY-AUH, and EK-DXB behemoths. I believe that I read somewhere that they had intentions, or at least considered LAX-IKA-SYD with the 747SP.
.


If we are considering a scenario where, politically and socially, there was no revolution and Iran remained a friend of the West, then IR today would be substantially larger than QR, EK and EY. In fact, it is plausible that these three carriers would never have been founded. You have to consider that, economically, Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have grown and flourished due to their relative stability in the ME - a position which Iran used to serve prior to the revolution and which it would have otherwise continued to serve.

Even back in the 1970's, Tehran's new airport (now IKA) was planned to be one of the world's largest airports - a huge terminal complex and at least four 14,000ft+ runways. Imagine Emirates crossed with Turkish, but 20 years sooner - global reach, massive O/D and a huge domestic network. It is almost certain that by now they would be one of the world's largest airlines.

Would Iran Air order the 747-8?
 
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Channex757
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:25 pm

Iran Air was always a Boeing shop. Had there been no embargo I could see them with a fleet of 737NG aircraft, and at this time they would be looking to retire their 767-386ER GE-powered fleet.

Their flagship planes would definitely be the 777-386ER. Iran Air Engineering would have gone from strength to strength as they always had a reputation for high quality work.

A shame to think of what has been lost through the way the revolution and sanctions turned out.
 
PlymSpotter
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 4:54 am

It is quite possible that they would have ordered the B748i and the A388, in large numbers.

Certainly without the revolution and with a Western friendly environment, they would have grown a very very sizeable wide body fleet. Looking at precedents for a hypothetical operation, in the late 1980s I would suggest the B747-100/200 fleet would have been succeeded and enlarged with the B747-400, the B747-SPs would have been replaced by B747-400ERs in the early 1990s, whilst the early A300 fleet would then have been replaced by a mix of more A300s (if they weren't too small) and larger A330-300s for domestic / regional to mid haul flying. I personally think this would have also made an order for the A340-200/300 in the early 1990s slightly more likely than the later B777-200ER, opening up the possibility of an eventual A340-500 order too. Then by the mid 2000s I'd have expected large orders for the A388, B77W and potentially B748i to expand and replace the B744s and, by middle of this decade, huge orders for the A330NEO/A350/B787 and B77X to replace the A330 / 340 plus remaining B744 fleets and supplement the A388 and B77W.

A further fascinating thought - what if history really played out differently, meaning Iran Air's major competition was now Iraqi Airways and Saudia. A somewhat different ME3.
...love is just a camouflage for what resembles rage again...
 
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Channex757
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Re: Iran Air without embargo?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:49 am

PlymSpotter wrote:
A further fascinating thought - what if history really played out differently, meaning Iran Air's major competition was now Iraqi Airways and Saudia. A somewhat different ME3.

The alternative universe ME3 would be Iran Air, Gulf Air and MEA. All had the kind of reputation Emirates et al were aiming for.

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