simpv
Topic Author
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Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:41 pm

Anna.aero just published a list of the top 10 unserved routes from 10 of Asia's airports.
https://www.anna.aero/2019/03/06/100-ro ... p-service/

Importantly, they also provide numbers on the potential (or lack thereof) for new routes. Of course, none of this takes into account yields, F/J demand, or connection opportunities. Let the sniping commence.

Some highlights:
PEK: Only ATL and DEN are in the top 20 in the US.
HND: Some nice expansion opportunities for JL/NH; MCO is in the top 20, but MIA is not.
HKG: HNL-HKG anytime soon? Maybe HA could look at that route.
CGK: CDG route top, LAX second (and far exceeds JFK and SFO).
CAN: BOS or ORD would seem to be the next for CZ.
SIN: YVR would be the first North American add, as would some *A hubs in Europe. IAD is #15, SEA is not listed.
ICN: No US cities.
BKK: Dominated by demand to LAX, much more than JFK or SFO.
DEL: Also dominated by demand to LAX, SEA strong but only at 75 PDEW.

Separately, that new airport in Berlin needs to open soon, and DUS is also on there a few times.
 
SeanM1997
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Wed Mar 06, 2019 5:16 pm

Manchester could have over 30 million passengers this year. Rumours about Seoul and Bangkok launching to Manchester, maybe this is the route Asian carriers should look at
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:58 pm

simpv wrote:
HKG: HNL-HKG anytime soon? Maybe HA could look at that route.


You mean HX? They got no money to expand, sadly.

There are a fair amount of 2nd/3rd tier European cities on the list, although it's a little bit surprising that both TXL and HAM are among airports on the list but not DUS (Which CX used to fly).

simpv wrote:
PEK: Only ATL and DEN are in the top 20 in the US.


You forgot MCO.

Speaking of PEK, the #1 route (LAD) was served by TAAG awhile back.

Otherwise, PEN needs a flight to both PEK and PVG (and perhaps ICN).

simpv wrote:
CGK: CDG route top, LAX second (and far exceeds JFK and SFO).

simpv wrote:
BKK: Dominated by demand to LAX, much more than JFK or SFO.

simpv wrote:
DEL: Also dominated by demand to LAX, SEA strong but only at 75 PDEW.


Not surprising. Anyone that has any knowledge of TPAC market will tell you LAX is by far a much larger market than SFO (Which is always overrated IMHO just b/c UA has a hub there).

Ultimately, one can definitely fill up a plane on LAX-BKK, it's a matter of whether one can make money or not anyway.

simpv wrote:
Separately, that new airport in Berlin needs to open soon, and DUS is also on there a few times.


Definitely agree. PVG, HKG, ICN, and to lesser extent, HND (Pretty sure there are some indirect traffic from NRT also), and BKK all has Berlin on the list, yet Tegel is so congested that there's simply not much room for expansion.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:30 pm

Without question IKA-LAX. This has got to be one of the most obvious routes in the world if there ever was one.

Also KHI/LHE/ISB-JFK is a big one, hopefully they resume that shortly. LHR-ISB on BA metal was a big one until very recently.
 
simpv
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:00 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
simpv wrote:
HKG: HNL-HKG anytime soon? Maybe HA could look at that route.


You mean HX? They got no money to expand, sadly.

There are a fair amount of 2nd/3rd tier European cities on the list, although it's a little bit surprising that both TXL and HAM are among airports on the list but not DUS (Which CX used to fly).

simpv wrote:
PEK: Only ATL and DEN are in the top 20 in the US.


You forgot MCO.

Speaking of PEK, the #1 route (LAD) was served by TAAG awhile back.

Otherwise, PEN needs a flight to both PEK and PVG (and perhaps ICN).

simpv wrote:
CGK: CDG route top, LAX second (and far exceeds JFK and SFO).

simpv wrote:
BKK: Dominated by demand to LAX, much more than JFK or SFO.

simpv wrote:
DEL: Also dominated by demand to LAX, SEA strong but only at 75 PDEW.


Not surprising. Anyone that has any knowledge of TPAC market will tell you LAX is by far a much larger market than SFO (Which is always overrated IMHO just b/c UA has a hub there).

Ultimately, one can definitely fill up a plane on LAX-BKK, it's a matter of whether one can make money or not anyway.

simpv wrote:
Separately, that new airport in Berlin needs to open soon, and DUS is also on there a few times.


Definitely agree. PVG, HKG, ICN, and to lesser extent, HND (Pretty sure there are some indirect traffic from NRT also), and BKK all has Berlin on the list, yet Tegel is so congested that there's simply not much room for expansion.


I meant Hawaiian, since it is likely just a point to point route. Though HA struggled in PEK, so maybe the premium demand isn't there.
 
simpv
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:12 pm

Just to expand, here are the routes listed that have at least an estimated 75 PDEW, with some cities listed at above 100.

PEK: none.

HND: BCN is close (71.9).

HKG: HNL is close (72.6)

PVG: DUS (95.3), MAN (81), CAI (80.2), PEN (79.7), and GRU (72.9; close, but probably too far for an economical route).

CGK: CDG (119.1), LAX (99.8), DEL (87.8), AMM (80), and DMM (76)
For comparison, JFK (62.5) and SFO (47.7).

CAN: LOS (119).
For comparison, BOS (41.2) and ORD (38).

SIN: PUS (103) and SOC (87.5).

ICN: MEL (110.8) and DYG (94.6).

BKK: LAX (334), MAN/JFK/SFO/DUS/MAD/TXL (between 140.5 and 210).

DEL: LAX (178.4), DPS (150.9), AKL (146.4), and BNE (100).
For comparison, SEA (75.6).
 
USAirALB
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:39 pm

That's interesting.

Going off other posters in this forum you would have thought that it would have been NRT-MIA, PVG-MIA, PEK-MIA, ICN-MIA.

I wouldn't be surprised to see SQ at either BOS or IAD one day, IMHO. I could see them trying BOS-TPE-SIN or IAD-TPE-SIN, as both BOS and IAD lack TPE service at present. Don't know if SQ still holds TPE-US traffic rights.
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mpdpilot
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:00 pm

simpv wrote:
Just to expand, here are the routes listed that have at least an estimated 75 PDEW, with some cities listed at above 100.

PEK: none.

HND: BCN is close (71.9).

HKG: HNL is close (72.6)

PVG: DUS (95.3), MAN (81), CAI (80.2), PEN (79.7), and GRU (72.9; close, but probably too far for an economical route).

CGK: CDG (119.1), LAX (99.8), DEL (87.8), AMM (80), and DMM (76)
For comparison, JFK (62.5) and SFO (47.7).

CAN: LOS (119).
For comparison, BOS (41.2) and ORD (38).

SIN: PUS (103) and SOC (87.5).

ICN: MEL (110.8) and DYG (94.6).

BKK: LAX (334), MAN/JFK/SFO/DUS/MAD/TXL (between 140.5 and 210).

DEL: LAX (178.4), DPS (150.9), AKL (146.4), and BNE (100).
For comparison, SEA (75.6).


This is the important thing to remember when we see the total number of passengers, I reminded of the discussion about why Delta doesn't operate ATL-PEK, less than 75PDEW when the plane needed to fly the route seats close to 300, it is unlikely that the route makes money.

It also shows a little bit about yield in that, if LAX-BKK was higher yielding, someone would have started it, certainly it is long, but with that number of daily travelers, the yield must be quite low. Even more the case with MAN/DUS/MAD/TXL, those aren't especially long routes either.

LAX-DEL is interesting, especially with AA saying they want to get back into the India market, this could be the perfect route to test the waters. I could also see Delta or United flying this route though, so it might be a case of who starts first, and with the right aircraft.

CGK-LAX/JFK/SFO certainly make a case for GA to serve the US again, though I suspect that CGK suffers from similar yield issues as BKK. Perhaps the existing options through HND/NRT/ICN/AMS (from GAs website, these where the first options for CGK-LAX) are sufficient.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Thu Mar 07, 2019 8:40 pm

mpdpilot wrote:
CGK-LAX/JFK/SFO certainly make a case for GA to serve the US again, though I suspect that CGK suffers from similar yield issues as BKK. Perhaps the existing options through HND/NRT/ICN/AMS (from GAs website, these where the first options for CGK-LAX) are sufficient.


CGK-LAX is in a worse position than BKK-LAX. It's further than SIN-LAX for one thing, and thus, required an even stronger business case than BKK-LAX to be profitable. In another word, not going to happen soon.

simpv wrote:
I meant Hawaiian, since it is likely just a point to point route. Though HA struggled in PEK, so maybe the premium demand isn't there.


For some reason I was thinking HU (Hainan Airlines) when I read HA. My apologies.

But yes, it's definitely a potential route for HA, especially once they get their 787s.

simpv wrote:
ICN: MEL (110.8) and DYG (94.6).


IIRC there are occasional charters on ICN-DYG, although doesn't seems like any of the S. Korean LCCs (or KE/OZ) are willing to start scheduled service as-is.

ICN-MEL = Potential Jetstar Route? Or Perhaps KE on their 787s?

USAirALB wrote:
Going off other posters in this forum you would have thought that it would have been NRT-MIA, PVG-MIA, PEK-MIA, ICN-MIA.


To be fair there's always the so-call "Latin America connection at MIA" as if one can't connect at LAX, DFW, or DXB.
 
Gemuser
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:59 pm

zakuivcustom reply 9 ICN-MEL = Potential Jetstar Route? Or Perhaps KE on their 787s?

KE served ICN - MEL with A330s until 2013/14, three days a week and show no sign of returning. I have a vague idea that Jetstar tried MEL - ICN but am not sure about that.

Gemuser
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:18 am

I am still surprised TYO-HKT is unserved.
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2019: CX BOS-HKG, WE HKG-HKT, CA HKT-PEK-EWR, B6 EWR-BOS
 
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AirAfreak
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Sat Mar 09, 2019 8:28 am

Once upon a time, there was a Los Angeles - Honolulu - Tokyo flight; operated by Korean Air. Based on this particular flight routing that operated as a vacation flight for some years of service, I wonder what level of traffic a Los Angeles - Jeju - Seoul/Gimpo could potentially garner?
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EChid
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:07 am

I am kind of surprised how limited connectivity between Korea/China and secondary cities in Australia is. CA cancelled their routes between MEL and PVG, KE stops service to MEL. OZ only serves SYD. Are CX and SQ eating everyone's lunch here?
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EChid
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:10 am

I'd like to see ever more connectivity between YUL and Asia, although I'm not sure it's going to happen anytime soon. We've got PEK, PVG, NRT, which is great...but I'd love to see either ICN or HKG in the mix too.
2018: DRW-PER-HKG-ICN-MEL-AVV-BNE-OOL-SYD-YYZ-YYZ-YUL-YVR-PDX-SEA-SFO-PEK-KIX-CDG-IST-NRT-HND-BKK-FAT; AC J-TK J-OZ F-DL F-TG J/F-NH J/F-CX J-VA J
 
mpdpilot
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Mon Mar 11, 2019 11:39 pm

zakuivcustom wrote:
mpdpilot wrote:
CGK-LAX/JFK/SFO certainly make a case for GA to serve the US again, though I suspect that CGK suffers from similar yield issues as BKK. Perhaps the existing options through HND/NRT/ICN/AMS (from GAs website, these where the first options for CGK-LAX) are sufficient.


CGK-LAX is in a worse position than BKK-LAX. It's further than SIN-LAX for one thing, and thus, required an even stronger business case than BKK-LAX to be profitable. In another word, not going to happen soon.


I agree it is unlikely, but GA has said they are interested in serving the US, though it is far more likely to be direct service than non-stop.
One mile of highway gets you one mile, one mile of runway gets you anywhere.
 
PSAatSAN4Ever
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:54 am

The numbers are interesting, but it is a fascinating study in "Number Don't Equal Profit 101".

Indonesia - USA and Thailand - USA has so much competition it can't be anything but a bloodbath. The choices in Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taipei, and Singapore alone are enough to handle most of the premium traffic, not to mention the VFR traffic.

I half expected to see ICN-SAN as one of Korea's top unserved markets; however, no such luck.. Still crossing my fingers to see Korean Air or Asiana here one day.
 
TheEuphorian
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:14 am

adamh8297 wrote:
I am still surprised TYO-HKT is unserved.

TG used to serve this route as BKK-HKT-NRT as TG670/TG671, but it has been terminated for some years already and the flight number is reused for BKK-CTS-BKK
 
zakuivcustom
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Re: Top Unserved Routes from Asian Airports

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:29 pm

EChid wrote:
I am kind of surprised how limited connectivity between Korea/China and secondary cities in Australia is. CA cancelled their routes between MEL and PVG, KE stops service to MEL. OZ only serves SYD. Are CX and SQ eating everyone's lunch here?


China (mainland) to secondary Australia is far from "limited". Just b/c CA can't compete with MU on PVG-MEL doesn't mean it's end of the world. PRC and Australia has Open Sky Agreement IIRC anyway.

AirAfreak wrote:
Once upon a time, there was a Los Angeles - Honolulu - Tokyo flight; operated by Korean Air. Based on this particular flight routing that operated as a vacation flight for some years of service, I wonder what level of traffic a Los Angeles - Jeju - Seoul/Gimpo could potentially garner?


LAX-CJU would be similar to something like NYC-Canaries - not going to happen. If anything, Jeju tourism market is highly center around South Korean and mainland Chinese (the latter b/c PRC citizens don't required a visa to visit Jeju-do but need one to visit "mainland" South Korea unless they're transiting). Not a ton of flights from Japan, HK, Taiwan (and ASEAN) to CJU (at least compared to ICN or even PUS).

adamh8297 wrote:
I am still surprised TYO-HKT is unserved.


Stage length is the problem. An A32x(ceo) and B73xNG cannot really make it all the way from Tokyo to HKT (factoring in winds), which means the routes has to be operate by B767s or A330s at a minimum, which makes it harder to make money (compare to, let say, ICN-HKT which is perfectly fine for A32x(ceo) or B73xNG).

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