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UAUA
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Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:59 am

Possible for an airline to save the A380 still? Maybe Emirates, British Airways or ANA might come up with an order? I would say slim.

Perhaps there will be a successful super jumbo after many years.
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exmike
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:03 am

Time to let it go..
 
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Veigar
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:03 am

Not slim, impossible.
 
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zckls04
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:04 am

Nope.
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seabosdca
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:17 am

No OEM wants to discontinue an aircraft program. When that happens, it's only after extensive attempts to drum up orders failed. We know about protracted discussions Airbus had with both EK and BA, and I'm sure there were many more behind the scenes.

The problem is a straightforward economic issue. Larger aircraft need enough additional delta between revenue potential and costs to cover a risk premium that makes up for those times when they can't be filled. The A380 easily did that for heavy trunk routes against every widebody before the 77W. The 77W made it more difficult, and then the 787, A350, and 777X made it impossible for everyone but EK.
 
Utah744
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:22 am

I think some might end up being really big hotels.
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flee
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:35 am

It is a dead as the B757 - zero chance of revival.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:40 am

The winding down of the A380 program has been in the works for over a year. When Emirates cancelled the last 39 on its order list, there was nothing left to do than but announce that the A380 would end production in 2020. Realistically, the A380 was 10 to 15 years too late. The 777-200ER and 300 were already flying when the A380 program was launched.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:42 am

Utah744 wrote:
I think some might end up being really big hotels.


Maybe some of the early ones in the not too distant future.
 
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c933103
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:04 am

I would say it's still possible to sustain the program, but literally no one have the will to spend enough extra resources on the program to achieve the goal
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TC957
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:13 am

I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.
 
A320FlyGuy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:14 am

I think that the only way that the A380 would survive is if there was a significant order placed in the next 8-12 months.

Don’t forget that many of the large, complex components for the A380 are ordered and manufactured YEARS in advance. By now, Airbus will have already begun to serve notice to it’s suppliers that the program is ending and that they can begin to wind down production of components as well as forecast the parts required for production as well as future spare parts requirements. Items like landing gear which are usually rebuilt in maintenance and not outright replaced with new units are but one example of a component that Airbus will have already served notice to the manufacturer of firm requirements. After that, depending on the specifics of the contract, Airbus will either order the tooling destroyed, or it will be returned to Airbus.

Regardless, it’s incredibly sad to see the end of a program that held so much promise. I am so glad that I took the time on vacation in Europe to visit Toulouse and tour the A380 production line. My heart goes out to those people on the production line - one thing that you could tell when you were talking to them was how proud they were of the product that they were building and it’s reputation in the world. One gentleman who stands out in my mind - he had to be in his mid to late 70s and all he did was paint the heads of the screws on all fasteners in the door jambs of the aircraft. I remember watching him go about his business with quiet efficiency - ensuring that the screws were all perfect. It’s a part of the aircraft that nobody would ever pay attention to, and yet it was getting as much care and detail as if the safety of every flight depended on these screws being properly painted.

I will take comfort in knowing that the A380 will continue to serve throughout the world for many years to come.
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Veigar
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:17 am

flee wrote:
It is a dead as the B757 - zero chance of revival.


Except it is not at all like the 757.
 
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CARST
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:46 am

I'd say a 100-300 airplane order from Emirates could change Airbus minds as long as the production is still running (I think until the end of 2020???). Or at least until the last supplier to Airbus stops producing parts with a long lead time, because I think some parts have a lead time of close to one year. So a huge order until, let's say late 2019, could save the whale...

But I'd say the chanes are below 1%. The final decision was made, that's it, Airbus is happy to focus on more profitable aircraft, airlines don't want it anymore, end of story...
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:48 am

Everyone can save it he/she can order 100 of them
 
Waterbomber2
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:58 am

I think that there are opportunities for repurposing the platform, given its high MTOW capabilities.
I'm shocked that Airbus hasn't offered a military aircraft based on the platform.

There are also opportunities in the firefighting department if and when regulators start realising that their "green" initiatives are meaningless when savings achieved through hard work and a lot of spending can be wiped out by a single wildfire.
 
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kjeld0d
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:58 am

Image
 
tommy1808
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:04 am

Veigar wrote:
flee wrote:
It is a dead as the B757 - zero chance of revival.


Except it is not at all like the 757.


:checkmark:
Other than the 757, the A380 is

a) still being build and
b) the tooling is all still there.

That being said, unless something very fundamental happens, like a complete reversal of policies towards open skies in major aviation markets, it ain't coming back.

Best regards
Thomas
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A101
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:27 am

I’m surprised it could not be turned into a freighter, how many decks could they put into it for freight on long haul
 
marcelh
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:35 am

flee wrote:
It is a dead as the B757 - zero chance of revival.

But inspiration for a lot of new threads :mrgreen:
 
A320FlyGuy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:41 am

A101 wrote:
I’m surprised it could not be turned into a freighter, how many decks could they put into it for freight on long haul


I don’t think it’s so much an issue with the capability of the aircraft, but rather handling freight since you don’t have the straight in loading capability of the 747 and the fuselage design of the A380 makes it difficult to add a side cargo door.
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Bricktop
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:43 am

Time to move on.
 
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Mortyman
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:50 am

It's unfortunate that Airbus is not really willing to spend the money on a more effective Airbus 380. Personally I think they let it og too soon without really trying to hard to come op With a better Version.
 
YellowJ
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:51 am

tommy1808 wrote:
Veigar wrote:
flee wrote:
It is a dead as the B757 - zero chance of revival.


Except it is not at all like the 757.


:checkmark:
Other than the 757, the A380 is

a) still being build and
b) the tooling is all still there.

That being said, unless something very fundamental happens, like a complete reversal of policies towards open skies in major aviation markets, it ain't coming back.

Best regards
Thomas


The 757 was still being built when Boeing announced it's discontinuation. No OEM shuts down production overnight. If no airline was interested in Airbus final sales pitch, I don't see where renewed interest would come from when the largest buyer effectively conceded the end and switched deposits to other models with-in the Airbus group. So in essence the A380 is indeed like the 757 when the line was announced to be shutting down.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:53 am

TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


except that that A380 does virtually nothing to increase utilization of existing major airports.
only purpose built, green field airports could really make use of its size, without hampering the far more typical route demands (ie, smaller aircraft better suited for most all city pairs).
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 7:58 am

If it gets new engines. It needs weight taken out also. Probably another 5-7 billion euros of investment. OEW of ~620,000 lbs is ridiculous.
We fly JETS, we don't fly donkeys.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:03 am

Emirates orders were what kept the A380 production running. Removal of those orders killed the A380. There is no possible buyer that could buy enough frames, so that Airbus would rethink the closing of the A380 production.
 
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9lflyguy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:10 am

Let. It. Die.

It's sold as many as it's gonna sell. No chance of revival.
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tommy1808
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:47 am

YellowJ wrote:
tommy1808 wrote:
Veigar wrote:

Except it is not at all like the 757.


:checkmark:
Other than the 757, the A380 is

a) still being build and
b) the tooling is all still there.

That being said, unless something very fundamental happens, like a complete reversal of policies towards open skies in major aviation markets, it ain't coming back.

Best regards
Thomas


The 757 was still being built when Boeing announced it's discontinuation..


yup, that is the difference between "is as dead as the 757" and "Is as dead as the 757 was at the time Boeing announced the end of its production".

best regards
Thomas
Well, there is prophecy in the bible after all: 2 Timothy 3:1-6
 
Amiga500
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:52 am

Yeah.

When all the 737s are grounded, airlines will be desperate for capacity...


[/sarcasm]
 
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SEPilot
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:07 am

Mortyman wrote:
It's unfortunate that Airbus is not really willing to spend the money on a more effective Airbus 380. Personally I think they let it og too soon without really trying to hard to come op With a better Version.

Airbus has already lost billions on it, with absolutely no chance of recouping any of it. Every frame they build now costs more to build than they can sell it for. Even with major improvements they cannot find enough buyers to make it viable. So you want them to put still MORE money into it?????
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chiad
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:31 am

Mortyman wrote:
It's unfortunate that Airbus is not really willing to spend the money on a more effective Airbus 380. Personally I think they let it og too soon without really trying to hard to come op With a better Version.


I think it's a petty also. But I suspect a "better version" would mean a 2-engine A380, and I wonder if that is possible before 2030.
 
cpd
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:44 am

A320FlyGuy wrote:
I think that the only way that the A380 would survive is if there was a significant order placed in the next 8-12 months.

Don’t forget that many of the large, complex components for the A380 are ordered and manufactured YEARS in advance. By now, Airbus will have already begun to serve notice to it’s suppliers that the program is ending and that they can begin to wind down production of components as well as forecast the parts required for production as well as future spare parts requirements. Items like landing gear which are usually rebuilt in maintenance and not outright replaced with new units are but one example of a component that Airbus will have already served notice to the manufacturer of firm requirements. After that, depending on the specifics of the contract, Airbus will either order the tooling destroyed, or it will be returned to Airbus.

Regardless, it’s incredibly sad to see the end of a program that held so much promise. I am so glad that I took the time on vacation in Europe to visit Toulouse and tour the A380 production line. My heart goes out to those people on the production line - one thing that you could tell when you were talking to them was how proud they were of the product that they were building and it’s reputation in the world. One gentleman who stands out in my mind - he had to be in his mid to late 70s and all he did was paint the heads of the screws on all fasteners in the door jambs of the aircraft. I remember watching him go about his business with quiet efficiency - ensuring that the screws were all perfect. It’s a part of the aircraft that nobody would ever pay attention to, and yet it was getting as much care and detail as if the safety of every flight depended on these screws being properly painted.

I will take comfort in knowing that the A380 will continue to serve throughout the world for many years to come.


I don't think a significant order will save it either. Such an order would be turned down and the buyer encouraged to look at other options like A350. It is finished now. It is as likely to return to production as Concorde is to return to the skies again.

FlyHappy wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


except that that A380 does virtually nothing to increase utilization of existing major airports.
only purpose built, green field airports could really make use of its size, without hampering the far more typical route demands (ie, smaller aircraft better suited for most all city pairs).


My airport isn't a green field one, aside from the green fields around the runways and taxiways. And we get a large number of A380 aircraft every day. They fly in and out with pretty big passenger loads too.
 
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JannEejit
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:09 am

Obviously current airline trends of multiple frequency operations have made life difficult for all the VLA types amongst the much discussed other reasons. What I'm curious about is what future situations in commercial aviation might be flip the situation on it's head and make a place for the VLA again in an operational sense ? I'm thinking primarily along the lines of of environmental concerns or lobbying against multiple frequency ops and pressures (societal or otherwise) put on airlines to carry more people on the trunk routes, but less often ? I'm also assuming ther will need to be some sort of 'revolution; in propulsion systems, clean, green etc. What do others think, is there a future role for the Very Large Airliner ?
 
Aither
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:11 am

To save I don't know but possible additional orders maybe. We were caught by surprised by this announcement (shame on Airbus) and the A380 is an important cash cow for some airlines so I would not be totally surprised of some last minutes reorders. Very unlikely but would not be totally surprised.
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Tn55337
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 10:45 am

No!
 
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Aesma
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:43 am

The last Emirates order saved it once. However it was not a real order in the end, because they wanted a better engine, and RR didn't want to pay for that better engine.

So we all should have known it was the end two years ago already.

Now if Emirates put a billion on the table for RR to improve their engine, and ordered 30 or 50 or 100 frames again, then sure, that would revive the A380.
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Revelation
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:58 am

CARST wrote:
I'd say a 100-300 airplane order from Emirates could change Airbus minds as long as the production is still running (I think until the end of 2020???). Or at least until the last supplier to Airbus stops producing parts with a long lead time, because I think some parts have a lead time of close to one year. So a huge order until, let's say late 2019, could save the whale...

But I'd say the chanes are below 1%. The final decision was made, that's it, Airbus is happy to focus on more profitable aircraft, airlines don't want it anymore, end of story...

Thing is, all the money that might be used for this purpose has now shifted from long lead time parts for A380 to long lead time parts for A330neo and A350. It's not like there are big bags of money sitting in a vault somewhere that can be used to buy a bunch of A380s on top of that.

Mortyman wrote:
It's unfortunate that Airbus is not really willing to spend the money on a more effective Airbus 380. Personally I think they let it og too soon without really trying to hard to come op With a better Version.

If you're playing the blame game, RR gets a seat at the table too. They were the lead engine on an openly discussed A380neo in 2014-6 but in the end backed away. They wrestled the EK account away from EA but in the end could not deliver the promised performance/durability. Their inability to come to terms with EK on the 20+18 order was the last straw for the A380 program. Yet RR has walked away in the best possible position. They have minimized their position in the problematic T900 and have walked away with orders for TXWB and T7000 and are now in control of Airbus's wide body destiny via UltraFan. It's a pretty good reward for what has been a spotty record.
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2175301
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:04 pm

Folks... It's quite obviously all Boeing's fault ;)

If Boeing was not so insistent in building passenger aircraft that competed with Airbus - then the market for the A380 (and A340) would be alive and well...

I've heard from many people who like Airbus that Boeing sells aircraft at a loss and their reported profits and cash flow are total fabrications... as a plot to gain market share... It must be true.

So... It's all Boeing's fault ;)

Have a great day,
 
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par13del
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:12 pm

SEPilot wrote:
Airbus has already lost billions on it, with absolutely no chance of recouping any of it. Every frame they build now costs more to build than they can sell it for. Even with major improvements they cannot find enough buyers to make it viable. So you want them to put still MORE money into it?????

Airbus or the tax payers?
If the RLI can be written off then the tax payers are the true investors and their proxies are the governments of France, Germany and others.
So I will wait until their Brexit focus is replaced by closer EU integration to see if they agree that the Whale should die, when playing with house money, time is of no essence.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:16 pm

JannEejit wrote:
What I'm curious about is what future situations in commercial aviation might be flip the situation on it's head and make a place for the VLA again in an operational sense ? I'm thinking primarily along the lines of of environmental concerns or lobbying against multiple frequency ops and pressures (societal or otherwise) put on airlines to carry more people on the trunk routes, but less often?

I've asked this on a couple of threads here, and it's generally been pointed out to me that:
1) The environmental advantage to running a full A380 is decreasing with every evolutionary change in the 777 an A350.

2) It's a lot easier to find the passengers to keep the later two closer to a full load.

3) There are a lot more potential sales to pay for periodic improvements in design.

4) It's more cost effective from a carbon standpoint to fly a smaller aircraft such as the 787 full and direct than it is to fly multiple legs, if one of those legs is not full.
Last edited by NameOmitted on Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:16 pm

Why is this drivel even being posted? It's done. I know that the dreams of fans die hard but this thread is ridiculous.
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brons2
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:27 pm

Sure, while we're at it, let's bring back the 727 and MD-11, trijets will have their day, yet!
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
Aptivaboy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:30 pm

He's dead, Jim.
 
jns13
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:41 pm

TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


To be fair, this is pretty much exactly the argument that Airbus made when first developing/promoting the A380, and it hasn't exactly panned out that way.

That is not to mention the operational difficulties it occasions at all but the very largest, purpose built airports. LAX had to assign a vehicle to drive the entire length of the runway to check for debris after each A380 takeoff, for example, and other airports have felt it was necessary to purpose-build gates to accommodate it. Any benefit it would bring in terms of reducing number of flights into major airports in the future would, I think at least in part, be offset by the challenges to ground operations from having multiple of the aircraft on the ground at the same time.
 
m66
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:48 pm

Things you will read and discuss in this place in 2032: "Any chance to build the A380 again?"
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:52 pm

m66 wrote:
Things you will read and discuss in this place in 2032: "Any chance to build the A380 again?"


Right next to threads about why it was such a mistake for Boeing to dicontinue 757 production.
 
dtw9
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:03 pm

Should of stuck a fork in this turkey 5 years ago. Whats so hard to understand that there's no business case for the A380. Quit beating a dead horse, it's over. Time to stick a fork in these types of threads too.
 
Aither
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:11 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
JannEejit wrote:
What I'm curious about is what future situations in commercial aviation might be flip the situation on it's head and make a place for the VLA again in an operational sense ? I'm thinking primarily along the lines of of environmental concerns or lobbying against multiple frequency ops and pressures (societal or otherwise) put on airlines to carry more people on the trunk routes, but less often?

I've asked this on a couple of threads here, and it's generally been pointed out to me that:
1) The environmental advantage to running a full A380 is decreasing with every evolutionary change in the 777 an A350.

2) It's a lot easier to find the passengers to keep the later two closer to a full load.

3) There are a lot more potential sales to pay for periodic improvements in design.

4) It's more cost effective from a carbon standpoint to fly a smaller aircraft such as the 787 full and direct than it is to fly multiple legs, if one of those legs is not full.


2) it's about allocating the right aircraft on the right routes. There are markets where the A380 is too small, and A320s are too big.

4) I disagree on that, we need to look at the overall system : on a hub system a passenger is on flights that are already there. He or She is only an incremental demand, improving the load factors and eventually making the airline operate larger aircraft with a reduced cost per seat. On a more "point to point" system, it's pure new routes, new flights. Also on thinner routes the demand is often less predictable, load factors are less than on big markets where it's easier for the revenue management people to fill the aircraft with local or transit traffic. So the hub & spoke system is more environmentally friendly. The A380 was boosting the hub capabilities (ask Emirates). Stopping the A380 is bad news for the environment.
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ILNFlyer
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:20 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
m66 wrote:
Things you will read and discuss in this place in 2032: "Any chance to build the A380 again?"


Right next to threads about why it was such a mistake for Boeing to dicontinue 757 production.


Right next to the DC 9 & Fokker production revivals.

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