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SEPilot
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:24 pm

jns13 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


To be fair, this is pretty much exactly the argument that Airbus made when first developing/promoting the A380, and it hasn't exactly panned out that way.

That is not to mention the operational difficulties it occasions at all but the very largest, purpose built airports. LAX had to assign a vehicle to drive the entire length of the runway to check for debris after each A380 takeoff, for example, and other airports have felt it was necessary to purpose-build gates to accommodate it. Any benefit it would bring in terms of reducing number of flights into major airports in the future would, I think at least in part, be offset by the challenges to ground operations from having multiple of the aircraft on the ground at the same time.

Why did LAX have to check for debris after each takeoff? Does the A380 regularly shed parts?
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Lewton
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 2:46 pm

UAUA wrote:
Possible for an airline to save the A380 still? Maybe Emirates, British Airways or ANA might come up with an order? I would say slim.

Perhaps there will be a successful super jumbo after many years.

Seriously, move on.
I am saying this as a big fan of Airbus.
The company needs to move on and put its money where it can actually make some money (A330neo and A350 and -if there is a market- something even bigger but with 2 engines).
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JayinKitsap
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:10 pm

Cost efficiency is a good proxy for the best product for the environment. Engines in current production produce similar levels of pollution, ie a ton of fuel burned produces a similar amount whether from engine A or B. Only if an engine was particularly poor in an aspect, say high NOx compared to other model, would this deviate. So upgauging a flight from a 777 to a 380 only makes sense if on a per paying passenger cost is lower that way. So the environmental and business case are aligned.

So when airlines repeated said "it is hard to make it work" or similar, and also stopped buying the turkey it means that upgauging to the 380 increases cost, instead it is best to use a 77W, A359, or 787, even if more flights are needed. It doesn't need to be by a large margin, but if the performance is 3% off the best choice on the best route for the plane there won't be additional orders. Outside of EK there really were no top off orders made after the airline had the plane in service. Not a good situation.

The A380 program was in a coma for years, only now has Airbus decided to take it off life support. Now Airbus gets to decide where to relocate 3,000 workers to programs that need them. I cannot imagine a resurrection happening.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:17 pm

Lewton wrote:
UAUA wrote:
Possible for an airline to save the A380 still? Maybe Emirates, British Airways or ANA might come up with an order? I would say slim.

Perhaps there will be a successful super jumbo after many years.

Seriously, move on.
I am saying this as a big fan of Airbus.
The company needs to move on and put its money where it can actually make some money (A330neo and A350 and -if there is a market- something even bigger but with 2 engines).


At this point I don't think Airbus will make anything bigger than the A35J. And I don't think either that they will build any quad, other than the A400M, once the last A380 is finished. Twins only. That's how the airlines see their future fleet, at least in hauling passengers.
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:23 pm

SEPilot wrote:
jns13 wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


To be fair, this is pretty much exactly the argument that Airbus made when first developing/promoting the A380, and it hasn't exactly panned out that way.

That is not to mention the operational difficulties it occasions at all but the very largest, purpose built airports. LAX had to assign a vehicle to drive the entire length of the runway to check for debris after each A380 takeoff, for example, and other airports have felt it was necessary to purpose-build gates to accommodate it. Any benefit it would bring in terms of reducing number of flights into major airports in the future would, I think at least in part, be offset by the challenges to ground operations from having multiple of the aircraft on the ground at the same time.

Why did LAX have to check for debris after each takeoff? Does the A380 regularly shed parts?


Not an expert authority on this, so if someone has more info please correct me, but if I remember/understand correctly, it had more to do with the potential for the wake from the engines to stir up FOD that might not be by smaller aircraft, and possibly the potential of the wake damaging the runway itself (although on this last point I am less sure).
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:53 pm

It’s over...pull down the shutters and go home...


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FlyHappy
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 12:55 am

cpd wrote:

FlyHappy wrote:
TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.


except that that A380 does virtually nothing to increase utilization of existing major airports.
only purpose built, green field airports could really make use of its size, without hampering the far more typical route demands (ie, smaller aircraft better suited for most all city pairs).


My airport isn't a green field one, aside from the green fields around the runways and taxiways. And we get a large number of A380 aircraft every day. They fly in and out with pretty big passenger loads too.


I said nothing to the contrary, much less commented on passenger loads.

I only stated that the A380 by itself really does not increase utilization of existing infrastructure; it requires planning and expense to accommodate it *efficiently* .
If your home airport gets a "large number of A380" (whatever metric you may be using), then it is very much in the minority. I'm guessing it's not DXB.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:04 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
Now Airbus gets to decide where to relocate 3,000 workers to programs that need them.


That might be the 320/321 program given what is going on with the 737 Max...
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:04 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
m66 wrote:
Things you will read and discuss in this place in 2032: "Any chance to build the A380 again?"


Right next to threads about why it was such a mistake for Boeing to dicontinue 757 production.

In 2032 a.net will be full with 16-year old imbeciles asking stupid questions:
- why doesn’t airline ABC fly XXX-YYY?
- why didn’t airline DEF order aircraft type 123?
- why are Iranian airlines operating old aircraft?
- why are North Korean airlines operating Russian aircraft?
Etc. etc. etc.
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:12 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
m66 wrote:
Things you will read and discuss in this place in 2032: "Any chance to build the A380 again?"


Right next to threads about why it was such a mistake for Boeing to dicontinue 757 production.

Why wait?
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:23 pm

Pellegrine wrote:
If it gets new engines. It needs weight taken out also. Probably another 5-7 billion euros of investment. OEW of ~620,000 lbs is ridiculous.

It also needs a stretch (too much of the available space taken by stairs and elevators). Probably a 7 to 10 billion Euro investment.


If it were easy, it would have been saved.

EK and BA demanded pricing so poor that it was best to shut down the program.

Existing A380 have a grand total of one resale on a power by the hour basis. Most are being retired early. I was an A380 fan, but I do not understand the economics vs. 779, A35K, or even 787-10.

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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 5:57 pm

TC957 wrote:
I think in years to come the demand for the A380 will resurface. Crowded skies and lack of airport gates will see to that.
Effectively, for air travel to grow in future, regional airport growth is the only way forward. The major airports will be full.

Most of the growth is Asia.
Daxing airport Beijing
Navi Mumbai airport
Navi Delhi airport
Expanded BLR
PVG gaining two more runways.
HKG building 3rd runway
Jakarta soon to open 3rd runway.
Kuala Lumpur has room to expand.
ATL gaining runway #6
DFW to gain another terminal
The new IST is growing to massive capability.
Warsaw is looking at a new airport to hub to Asia for the EU.
SVO is massively expanding.
DUB is building a 2nd runway to handle TATL hubbing growth.


The only constraints are:
London, but it looks like Gatwick will get a runway
New York, which has far too many RJs
Chicago, again, too many RJs

Customers are hubbing less. Bridge hubbing (double hubbing) is dying. I won't do it as a chance of a missed connection is too high.

Capacity in gauge is narrowbody aircraft.

LAX is getting tough. Fine, my employer will preferentially hire in Colorado, Texas, and Florida. Jobs are too easy to move. Transportation is required to build wealth. Regions lacking transportation capacity just move growth elsewhere.


To make the A380 viable requires 50+ cities constrained. That won't happen in the next 20 years. In particular as since a widebody generates so much more revenue than a narrowbody, it is an easy decision on how to allocate precious slots.

So what if once great hubs are bypassed? I've watched over the last 35+ years hub after hub fade from prominence. I could name hubs that were once dominate that now might just be interesting due to lack of expansion. Look at Tokyo, it didn't expand timely, so ICN, PEK, PVG, CAN, and HKG filled the role.

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JayinKitsap
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:29 pm

Revelation from the AF 220 thread

Revelation wrote:
AF/KL announces retirement of the remaining A380s:

The Air France-KLM Board of Directors today approved the retirement in principle of the remaining seven A380s from the Air France fleet by 2022, the phase out of three additional aircraft having been decided previously. Five of these aircraft are owned by the company, while two are leased.

The current competitive environment limits the markets in which the A380 can profitably operate. With four engines, the A380 consumes 20-25% more fuel per seat than new generation long-haul aircraft, and therefore emits more CO2. Increasing aircraft maintenance costs, as well as necessary cabin refurbishments to meet customer expectations reduce the economic attractiveness of Air France's A380s even further. Keeping this aircraft in the fleet would involve significant costs, while the aircraft programme was suspended by Airbus earlier in 2019.

The Air France KLM Group is studying possible replacement options for these aircraft with new generation aircraft currently on the market.

Ref: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-rele ... fleet.html

The bolded parts tells us why the A380 won't be saved.



IF the A380, as the AF press release noted, consumes 20-25% more per seat than a new gen (read 777x, 787, and 350) plane, it is on a quite dark road. It means that the 773 is 5-7% better on fuel, with also lower maintenance and landing fees too. So the 773 will be kept over the A380 except where the capacity makes sense for the big plane. That is a few dozen routes in the world.

There may be less than 100 flying in 10 years.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:54 pm

Lewton wrote:
UAUA wrote:
Possible for an airline to save the A380 still? Maybe Emirates, British Airways or ANA might come up with an order? I would say slim.

Perhaps there will be a successful super jumbo after many years.

Seriously, move on.
I am saying this as a big fan of Airbus.
The company needs to move on and put its money where it can actually make some money (A330neo and A350 and -if there is a market- something even bigger but with 2 engines).



Twin engines are MAXed out , put intended. Why would Airbus or anyone else invest in a dead end project like twin jets which have no ground clearance necessary for future engine developments? You can talk this and that but any airplane was called efficient at one point or another but there is a limit and twin jets have hit that by now and Boeing has learned that the hard way with 737 MAX where they got burned to the point of disfigurement.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:42 pm

JayinKitsap wrote:
Revelation from the AF 220 thread

Revelation wrote:
AF/KL announces retirement of the remaining A380s:


Ref: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-rele ... fleet.html

The bolded parts tells us why the A380 won't be saved.



IF the A380, as the AF press release noted, consumes 20-25% more per seat than a new gen (read 777x, 787, and 350) plane, it is on a quite dark road. It means that the 773 is 5-7% better on fuel, with also lower maintenance and landing fees too. So the 773 will be kept over the A380 except where the capacity makes sense for the big plane. That is a few dozen routes in the world.

There may be less than 100 flying in 10 years.


A380 burns 12 tonnes per hour while 773 burns about 8 tonnes per hour so about 50% more fuel . A380 has much more seating area but a little bit less cargo.
A380 needs one less set of pilots though .

No one is claiming that current A380 engines are that good , they are really dated and look puny and inefficient but only A380 can handle future large diameter fans which will completely overshadow anything flown today. RR has stated that Ultrafan will start flying by 2023 and it will probably be tested on A380 first and I don't see it fit on 787 nor A350 even though they are trying.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:21 pm

A320FlyGuy wrote:
I am so glad that I took the time on vacation in Europe to visit Toulouse and tour the A380 production line.

My father and I are flying to Toulouse in October. The sole purpose of our visit is the A380 factory. We are looking forward to it!
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:54 pm

Vladex wrote:
No one is claiming that current A380 engines are that good , they are really dated and look puny and inefficient but only A380 can handle future large diameter fans which will completely overshadow anything flown today. RR has stated that Ultrafan will start flying by 2023 and it will probably be tested on A380 first and I don't see it fit on 787 nor A350 even though they are trying.

Yes, well, Trent XWB first flew on A380 too, and it did not help the case for an A380neo.

By 2023 the A380 supply chain will be totally wound up so there will be no factory new A380s.

It'd be wonderful if an A380-Ultra-NEO could be built from used A380s but then we're left with a lot of expensive R&D and rework to do along with the expensive cabin refits.

MartijnNL wrote:
A320FlyGuy wrote:
I am so glad that I took the time on vacation in Europe to visit Toulouse and tour the A380 production line.

My father and I are flying to Toulouse in October. The sole purpose of our visit is the A380 factory. We are looking forward to it!

I envy you. In addition to seeing the FAL, I'd love to be in the same space as the first A320, such a historic aircraft!
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:16 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
If it gets new engines. It needs weight taken out also. Probably another 5-7 billion euros of investment. OEW of ~620,000 lbs is ridiculous.

It also needs a stretch (too much of the available space taken by stairs and elevators). Probably a 7 to 10 billion Euro investment.


If it were easy, it would have been saved.

EK and BA demanded pricing so poor that it was best to shut down the program.

Existing A380 have a grand total of one resale on a power by the hour basis. Most are being retired early. I was an A380 fan, but I do not understand the economics vs. 779, A35K, or even 787-10.

Lightsaber


I wasn't into aviation back then but A321 only sold about 500 frames in the first 15 years (1994-2009) and yet now it's the best selling aircraft and a no brainer for anyone. Was A321 not efficient back then and is it efficient now and why?

I don't understand how anybody can argue for twin jets given the 737 MAX grounding and flaws and given the obvious fact that engines are getting ever bigger and more efficient and the engines are driving airplane programs as such and not vice versa. Unless A and B are ready to design a new airplane every decade to fit a new engine . Furthermore and more so than everything bigger engines always favor the bigger airplane (A321neo, A330-900, 777-9) and completely shut down smaller one (A319NEO, A330-800, 777-8)
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:27 am

Zero chance. Now would the mods PLEASE crack down on thr A380 threads?!
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filipinoavgeek
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:35 am

Vladex wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
If it gets new engines. It needs weight taken out also. Probably another 5-7 billion euros of investment. OEW of ~620,000 lbs is ridiculous.

It also needs a stretch (too much of the available space taken by stairs and elevators). Probably a 7 to 10 billion Euro investment.


If it were easy, it would have been saved.

EK and BA demanded pricing so poor that it was best to shut down the program.

Existing A380 have a grand total of one resale on a power by the hour basis. Most are being retired early. I was an A380 fan, but I do not understand the economics vs. 779, A35K, or even 787-10.

Lightsaber


I wasn't into aviation back then but A321 only sold about 500 frames in the first 15 years (1994-2009) and yet now it's the best selling aircraft and a no brainer for anyone. Was A321 not efficient back then and is it efficient now and why?


The A321 was a lot less capable aircraft back then, and at the time, the A320 was sufficient for most routes. But now, as point-to-point has grown in prominence and as passenger numbers rise, the A321 has become needed for airlines that want more capacity but either can't upgrade to widebodies due to slots or infrastructure restrictions, or simply don't need the capacity of a widebody in the first place. In addition, the A321 itself has received various PIPs that have allowed its capabilities to grow and become more attractive. It can carry more than an A320 with only just a little more cost.

On the other hand, the A380 is a massive increase in capacity, but at a much higher cost compared to the alternatives, and considering the current state of the industry, it just no longer made much economic sense to have a big four-engined beast to carry hundreds of passengers when you can have a two-engined 787/777/A350 with a similar capacity and range but costs a lot less to operate. This is the same reason why the 747's days as a passenger aircraft are numbered too. It sucks that the A380 and the 747 are going the way of the dodo, but great experiences and reviews can only get you so far if the airlines are losing money in the process.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:36 am

So apart from Emirates, who do we expect to be other "last men standing" among the A380 operators? And of the A380s that retired, what percentage do you think are going straight to the scrapyard instead of finding new owners?
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:44 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
So apart from Emirates, who do we expect to be other "last men standing" among the A380 operators?

SQ bought new birds to replace the five oldest ones and are putting the rest through an in depth cabin refit.

They seem to be one of the few showing a commitment to the product line.

filipinoavgeek wrote:
And of the A380s that retired, what percentage do you think are going straight to the scrapyard instead of finding new owners?

The real issue is the lack of serious buyers.

It will only get worse as the wind down of the production line drives costs to keep the used birds flying up.
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:11 am

filipinoavgeek wrote:
So apart from Emirates, who do we expect to be other "last men standing" among the A380 operators?


SQ, as noted. QF, because the extra capacity really does offer revenue potential on LAX. I don't expect any of the European operators to stick with it for as long.

And of the A380s that retired, what percentage do you think are going straight to the scrapyard instead of finding new owners?


All but a few. You might see HiFly pick up a few more (and replace their early gimpy frames with better late-build ones), and a few might go to other charter and Hajj operators here and there. But, as with the A340NG, that sort of demand will only account for a fraction of the fleet. This is not an A332 or A343 situation where the frame is cheap enough to operate that it's attractive to a wide variety of second- and third-tier operators.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:16 am

Considering TG's financial problems and planned restructuring, how long do we expect them to keep their A380s? They're still relatively new (only about six years old or so) but apparently the number of destinations they serve has already decreased.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:09 am

It's not likely to find a second life. I feel sorry for Airbus in a way. It wasn't super obvious in the mid 2000's that it would have such a short factory life. A lot of airlines were scooping them up when it 1st came out. And, at the time the skies were still filled with commercial 747's. Ironic that in 15 or so years there will be more 747's in the the air.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:57 pm

timh4000 wrote:
It's not likely to find a second life. I feel sorry for Airbus in a way. It wasn't super obvious in the mid 2000's that it would have such a short factory life. A lot of airlines were scooping them up when it 1st came out. And, at the time the skies were still filled with commercial 747's. Ironic that in 15 or so years there will be more 747's in the the air.

On the other hand, Airbus knew they were taking a huge fiscal commitment that deserved tremendous amounts of due diligence and scrutinization, chose to make a much larger plane than ever before, built in a stretch right from the start, and did not design in a simple conversion to freight should Plan A not pan out for the operators.

It's funny to read all the complaints that Boeing hasn't launched NMA yet, given we have this vivid example of what can go wrong if you do not scrutinize your business plan for a new clean sheet design to the greatest extent possible.
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 4:02 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Vladex wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
It also needs a stretch (too much of the available space taken by stairs and elevators). Probably a 7 to 10 billion Euro investment.


If it were easy, it would have been saved.

EK and BA demanded pricing so poor that it was best to shut down the program.

Existing A380 have a grand total of one resale on a power by the hour basis. Most are being retired early. I was an A380 fan, but I do not understand the economics vs. 779, A35K, or even 787-10.

Lightsaber


I wasn't into aviation back then but A321 only sold about 500 frames in the first 15 years (1994-2009) and yet now it's the best selling aircraft and a no brainer for anyone. Was A321 not efficient back then and is it efficient now and why?


The A321 was a lot less capable aircraft back then, and at the time, the A320 was sufficient for most routes. But now, as point-to-point has grown in prominence and as passenger numbers rise, the A321 has become needed for airlines that want more capacity but either can't upgrade to widebodies due to slots or infrastructure restrictions, or simply don't need the capacity of a widebody in the first place. In addition, the A321 itself has received various PIPs that have allowed its capabilities to grow and become more attractive. It can carry more than an A320 with only just a little more cost.

On the other hand, the A380 is a massive increase in capacity, but at a much higher cost compared to the alternatives, and considering the current state of the industry, it just no longer made much economic sense to have a big four-engined beast to carry hundreds of passengers when you can have a two-engined 787/777/A350 with a similar capacity and range but costs a lot less to operate. This is the same reason why the 747's days as a passenger aircraft are numbered too. It sucks that the A380 and the 747 are going the way of the dodo, but great experiences and reviews can only get you so far if the airlines are losing money in the process.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... ifications
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A3 ... deliveries
A321 had the same capability as A320 (100 nm less range) and wasn't selling well at all . In 2005 only 17 A321 were delivered compared to 121 of A320 and 142 of A319's. Airbus even introduced tiny A318 because big planes weren't selling , probably because of small engines. A321 only started selling when it went NEO and got the big engines which only proves that big engines favor bigger airplanes.

A380 has more or less the same cost size wise as original A330 and 777 . Two A380 and three 773 burn the similar amount of fuel and fly similar amount of passengers but there is one set of pilots less with A380.
Quad engines are marginally less efficient compared to twins but double decks (A380) have .way more ground clearance to put a much bigger and efficient engine. Compare it to 787 which is already filled and topped out. I don't know which airline is losing money because of A380 either.
 
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:16 pm

Revelation wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
It's not likely to find a second life. I feel sorry for Airbus in a way. It wasn't super obvious in the mid 2000's that it would have such a short factory life. A lot of airlines were scooping them up when it 1st came out. And, at the time the skies were still filled with commercial 747's. Ironic that in 15 or so years there will be more 747's in the the air.

On the other hand, Airbus knew they were taking a huge fiscal commitment that deserved tremendous amounts of due diligence and scrutinization, chose to make a much larger plane than ever before, built in a stretch right from the start, and did not design in a simple conversion to freight should Plan A not pan out for the operators.

It's funny to read all the complaints that Boeing hasn't launched NMA yet, given we have this vivid example of what can go wrong if you do not scrutinize your business plan for a new clean sheet design to the greatest extent possible.
I think Boeing could be in the beginnings of some real dark times due to the 737max. They are putting so much focus on that that their other two projects the NMA and the 777x are not getting the resources they normally would.
 
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seabosdca
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:56 pm

timh4000 wrote:
I think Boeing could be in the beginnings of some real dark times due to the 737max. They are putting so much focus on that that their other two projects the NMA and the 777x are not getting the resources they normally would.


This doesn't make sense. Each of these three programs is in a different situation and needs different resources. The MAX needs software development. The 777X needs flight testing. NMA needs core airframe engineering.
 
timh4000
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:36 pm

seabosdca wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
I think Boeing could be in the beginnings of some real dark times due to the 737max. They are putting so much focus on that that their other two projects the NMA and the 777x are not getting the resources they normally would.


This doesn't make sense. Each of these three programs is in a different situation and needs different resources. The MAX needs software development. The 777X needs flight testing. NMA needs core airframe engineering.

One resource in particular that may be tied up is money...
 
filipinoavgeek
Posts: 397
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:18 am

Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:47 pm

Vladex wrote:
I don't know which airline is losing money because of A380 either.

Virtually every airline not called Emirates.
 
Vladex
Posts: 471
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:45 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Vladex wrote:
I don't know which airline is losing money because of A380 either.

Virtually every airline not called Emirates.


Emirates and Singapore are the only substantial operators and they post regular profits. All of these other airlines like Qatar, Etihad, Air France and others have a lot of problems with them
 
Vladex
Posts: 471
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Thu Aug 01, 2019 11:54 pm

Revelation wrote:
timh4000 wrote:
It's not likely to find a second life. I feel sorry for Airbus in a way. It wasn't super obvious in the mid 2000's that it would have such a short factory life. A lot of airlines were scooping them up when it 1st came out. And, at the time the skies were still filled with commercial 747's. Ironic that in 15 or so years there will be more 747's in the the air.

On the other hand, Airbus knew they were taking a huge fiscal commitment that deserved tremendous amounts of due diligence and scrutinization, chose to make a much larger plane than ever before, built in a stretch right from the start, and did not design in a simple conversion to freight should Plan A not pan out for the operators.

It's funny to read all the complaints that Boeing hasn't launched NMA yet, given we have this vivid example of what can go wrong if you do not scrutinize your business plan for a new clean sheet design to the greatest extent possible.


I command Airbus for building something new and with long term potential that didn't pan out with the short term environment and not investing in dead end projects like 737 and 747 until they fall off the sky, pun intended. Making A380 a luxury comfort airplane and a clunky cargo plane at the same time seems a contradiction, like making and buying a limousine and converting it to a delivery vehicle just in case.
 
filipinoavgeek
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 12:37 am

Vladex wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Vladex wrote:
I don't know which airline is losing money because of A380 either.

Virtually every airline not called Emirates.


Emirates and Singapore are the only substantial operators and they post regular profits. All of these other airlines like Qatar, Etihad, Air France and others have a lot of problems with them


And in many of these cases, notably Malaysian Airlines and perhaps to some extent Etihad, the A380 was a major cause of their financial constraints. An A380 order which in the end was never even delivered almost killed an airline (see Skymark). You really need to accept that the A380 has been a financial flop and the number of airlines that have been able to make it work could be counted on the fingers of one hand. And I say this as an A380 fanboy who is really sad to see them go.

Let's put it this way. If the A380 could make profits for airlines, then more airlines would have ordered them, and the ones already operating them (such as Air France, Qatar Airways, Qantas, and even Emirates) wouldn't be openly talking about replacement aircraft such as the 777X and the A350.
 
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flee
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 4:12 am

I wonder if AF is trying to trade in their 5 owned A380s with Airbus. And if Airbus is taking in so many used A380s, isn't it a good idea to re-engine them with a highly efficient engine (e.g. RR Ultrafan) plus performing the heavy checks before re-marketing the aircraft?
 
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SQ32
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 5:47 am

The death of A380 will help the case of a 450 seat A350-2000, that Airbus has been resisting, in order not to cannibalized A380.
 
Vladex
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:12 pm

filipinoavgeek wrote:
Vladex wrote:
filipinoavgeek wrote:
Virtually every airline not called Emirates.


Emirates and Singapore are the only substantial operators and they post regular profits. All of these other airlines like Qatar, Etihad, Air France and others have a lot of problems with them


And in many of these cases, notably Malaysian Airlines and perhaps to some extent Etihad, the A380 was a major cause of their financial constraints. An A380 order which in the end was never even delivered almost killed an airline (see Skymark). You really need to accept that the A380 has been a financial flop and the number of airlines that have been able to make it work could be counted on the fingers of one hand. And I say this as an A380 fanboy who is really sad to see them go.

Let's put it this way. If the A380 could make profits for airlines, then more airlines would have ordered them, and the ones already operating them (such as Air France, Qatar Airways, Qantas, and even Emirates) wouldn't be openly talking about replacement aircraft such as the 777X and the A350.


You say that airlines would order airplanes that make money but legacy airlines don't want competition more than they want short term profit. A380 is a game changer that allows small city state airlines to take over other hubs with size which they can control and not frequency which they can't control. Big state airlines know they can have a monopoly with frequency of only smaller planes. That's why US 3 didn't order A380 and were whining and trying to legislate against Emirates and even EU 3 and Qantas were anti A380 as it allowed Emirates and to some extent Singapore to compete against them and at least take the higher yield. Emirates without a380 will be just another airline

You are projecting a lot which is obvious in your language. To blame A380 on Skymark bankruptcy when they didn't even take one is absurd. Do you blame any other aircraft type for bankruptcies because a lot of them have happened recently such as Primera, WOW, Air Berlin, Avianca Brazil, Monarch, Jet and also Norwegian is losing a lot of money and none of them have A380.
The main operators of A380 EK and SQ are making money. While lesser operators like Qatar and Etihad are losing money. Qatar is in blockade and Etihad has cut dozens of routes and future orders which has nothing to do with A380 and both expanded quickly and are too close to Dubai. Malaysian is restructuring and still recovering after crashes , A380 may or may not be a problem but if it is it's a small part. Air France is not even keeping clean their planes .
 
Vladex
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:13 pm

SQ32 wrote:
The death of A380 will help the case of a 450 seat A350-2000, that Airbus has been resisting, in order not to cannibalized A380.


Not without new engines
 
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flee
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 1:59 pm

Vladex wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
The death of A380 will help the case of a 450 seat A350-2000, that Airbus has been resisting, in order not to cannibalized A380.

Not without new engines

With the A350-1000 and B777-9 not selling very well, Airbus is probably happy to pay more attention to smaller aircraft like the A321XLR.
 
Chemist
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 02, 2019 6:51 pm

Vladex wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
The death of A380 will help the case of a 450 seat A350-2000, that Airbus has been resisting, in order not to cannibalized A380.


Not without new engines


Not even with new engines.
 
Vladex
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:14 pm

Chemist wrote:
Vladex wrote:
SQ32 wrote:
The death of A380 will help the case of a 450 seat A350-2000, that Airbus has been resisting, in order not to cannibalized A380.


Not without new engines


Not even with new engines.


I'd say so as well. New engines would definitely make A350-1000 much better though.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:40 pm

Vladex wrote:
Chemist wrote:
Vladex wrote:
Not without new engines

Not even with new engines.

I'd say so as well. New engines would definitely make A350-1000 much better though.

RR, Airbus and EK tried very hard to launch an A380neo in the 2014-6 time frame.

It looked pretty encouraging but in the end the business case did not close.

In the Air France thread, Lightsaber reports the A35K sales are sluggish because the added income from the additional payload/range does not cover the added costs (capital, fuel, etc) to a good enough extent.

Seems to me a good move would be to do an UltraFan NEO to reboot the A35K and/or a bigger model and once that becomes a success then back-port it to the A359.

The end result could be three models that really put pressure on the competition.
Wake up to find out that you are the eyes of the world
The heart has its beaches, its homeland and thoughts of its own
Wake now, discover that you are the song that the morning brings
The heart has its seasons, its evenings and songs of its own
 
A320FlyGuy
Posts: 283
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:50 pm

Vladex wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
Pellegrine wrote:
If it gets new engines. It needs weight taken out also. Probably another 5-7 billion euros of investment. OEW of ~620,000 lbs is ridiculous.

It also needs a stretch (too much of the available space taken by stairs and elevators). Probably a 7 to 10 billion Euro investment.


If it were easy, it would have been saved.

EK and BA demanded pricing so poor that it was best to shut down the program.

Existing A380 have a grand total of one resale on a power by the hour basis. Most are being retired early. I was an A380 fan, but I do not understand the economics vs. 779, A35K, or even 787-10.

Lightsaber


I wasn't into aviation back then but A321 only sold about 500 frames in the first 15 years (1994-2009) and yet now it's the best selling aircraft and a no brainer for anyone. Was A321 not efficient back then and is it efficient now and why?

I don't understand how anybody can argue for twin jets given the 737 MAX grounding and flaws and given the obvious fact that engines are getting ever bigger and more efficient and the engines are driving airplane programs as such and not vice versa. Unless A and B are ready to design a new airplane every decade to fit a new engine . Furthermore and more so than everything bigger engines always favor the bigger airplane (A321neo, A330-900, 777-9) and completely shut down smaller one (A319NEO, A330-800, 777-8)


So you would have Boeing put trijets back into production and Airbus bring back the A340?

Twinjets are here to stay and anyone who doesn't see that needs to pull their head out of the sand. When properly designed for the geometry of the engine and with proper avionic support systems, there is no reason not to go with a twinjet configuration.

As for the A321 - it's a simple case of a product that has been enhanced and developed based on market needs and demands. The A321, like all Airbus models has been continuously advanced and modified to better adapt it to the needs of the marketplace. When launched, the A321 was essentially a large regional machine. It has since evolved into a 757 killer. The market is moved ng away from widebodies that are optimized for hub to hub flying and I stead, smaller aircraft for point to point routes are the way ahead. Airbus was just smart enough to foresee this while Boei f has largely adopted the "Makeup on a Pig" approach with the 737 and left the 757 replacement market to Airbus with the A321LR and XLR.
My other car is an A320-200
 
foxtrotbravo21
Posts: 49
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Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:41 am

The A380 is dead and there'snot even a secondhand market for the A380s despite airlines having these planes cannot even sell or lease it out. But good news is theA380s will still be flying for at least the next 10-15 years.
 
Vladex
Posts: 471
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:16 am

foxtrotbravo21 wrote:
The A380 is dead and there'snot even a secondhand market for the A380s despite airlines having these planes cannot even sell or lease it out. But good news is theA380s will still be flying for at least the next 10-15 years.


Thing is, only EK and SQ treated it well and it's the best ride in the sky. Many others like AF and BA totally trashed it and are not even cleaning it that well from some online reviews.
 
flightuk
Posts: 48
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 11:08 pm

Re: Any chance to save the A380 still?

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:25 pm

Even Air France who only flew 10, have started retiring the A380 early. The national carrier of the country where the aircraft is assembled. What a shame.....

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