Aviation737
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How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:19 pm

With all of this PR nightmare for Boeing happening right now, I have some questions that I would like to ask.

1. How long would the grounding last? Until they find the cause? If that is the case, what happens if the investigation takes 2-3 years? Does that mean that the 737 MAX has to be grounded for that long if it really takes 2-3 years to find out the cause?

2. How will this affect the sale of new 737 MAX to potential new customers? Are airlines now less inclined to order 737 MAX now or this doesn't affect airlines decisions at all?
 
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par13del
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:05 pm

Authority to sell the 797 is a go, as it will proof new production and vendor contracts for the new NSA.
Airbus to increase production to take additional market share, airlines need a/c to operate, expect price increase on the A320 line.
Boeing has to find software fix, hardware will be too expensive, better to hold those funds for the NSA which has to start at almost the same time as the 797, that there are no new engines to make a large enough leap in efficiency has been overtaken by the lack of pax wanting to fly on anything named 737, most don't know the NG from the MAX, they just know 737.
PR department cancelling all vacations as lots of work to be done over the next few month.
 
Arion640
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:08 pm

They’ll fix the issues and the plane will fly again. Luckily this hasn’t happened a few years down the line when hundreds upon hundreds are in service.
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flyingclrs727
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:14 pm

Arion640 wrote:
They’ll fix the issues and the plane will fly again. Luckily this hasn’t happened a few years down the line when hundreds upon hundreds are in service.


Don't you mean thousands upon thousands? There are over 5,000 orders, and there are over 350 already in service.
 
Arion640
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:16 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
Arion640 wrote:
They’ll fix the issues and the plane will fly again. Luckily this hasn’t happened a few years down the line when hundreds upon hundreds are in service.


Don't you mean thousands upon thousands? There are over 5,000 orders, and there are over 350 already in service.


Yeah we can go with thousands then.
223 319 320 321 333 346 359 388 733 73G 738 744 752 753 763 764 772 77E 773 77W 788 789 MD83 E145 E175 E195 RJ85 F70 DH8C DH8D AT75

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Sooner787
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:42 pm

I know Southwest has operated 737's exclusively for 50 plus years now ,
but I think they need to re-visit their plans to become an all MAX airline
in the next 10 plus years. The PR damage done to the MAX brand isn't
going away , not with the power of social media anymore.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:55 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I know Southwest has operated 737's exclusively for 50 plus years now ,
but I think they need to re-visit their plans to become an all MAX airline
in the next 10 plus years. The PR damage done to the MAX brand isn't
going away , not with the power of social media anymore.


The Max isn't going away. I would have no problem flying on a Southwest operated Max tomorrow, although my wallet would prerfer me to buy tickets further in advance. Other airlines maybe not. The MCAS will be fixed. There's no reason to switch their fleet acquistion strategy for the next decade.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:57 pm

Currently American Airlines Group, Southwest Airlines, and United Continental Holdings seem to have the most exposure to potential MAX issues in the US.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
leyland1989
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:01 pm

Boeing can probably start a soda can business.

Joke aside, they will patch it and the plane will fly again, end of story.
It's merely a DC10 or Comic situation. The 737 MAX will continue to be sold and flown, at most the A320NEO will get a some more orders, that's about it.
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whywhyzee
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:02 pm

It's a potential nightmare for AC right now, the max is huge percentage of their fleet and their summer plans are contingent on having even more. They have just about the largest exposure of any airline right now, and news coverage is certainly not helping.

Ultimately, this needs to blow over fast, we need a concrete solution even faster and someone needs to come out and take leadership, declaring the issue over and at least putting all the crazy assumptions and worry to bed.
 
planecane
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:07 pm

Perhaps we should wait for questions that require wild speculation until there is SOME info on what caused the ET crash first. What if it turns out to be something not related to the MAX at all?
 
leyland1989
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:13 pm

whywhyzee wrote:
It's a potential nightmare for AC right now, the max is huge percentage of their fleet and their summer plans are contingent on having even more. They have just about the largest exposure of any airline right now, and news coverage is certainly not helping.

Ultimately, this needs to blow over fast, we need a concrete solution even faster and someone needs to come out and take leadership, declaring the issue over and at least putting all the crazy assumptions and worry to bed.


The next AC 860 is cancelled, I guess it will remain so until they can find a 767 somewhere or not.

I think their two A319 are no longer ETOPS certified and have already gone to Rouge, but they can easily re-route passengers through YUL/YOW/YYZ.
It really isn't much of a major problem at Air Canada, plenty of capacity on the east coast transatlantic flights. YHZ/YYT isn't much of a busy route afterall.

For other domestic/continental routes, even if Transport Canada is going to follow suit, they can allocate some rouge planes or E-Jets and wet lease a few extra, they have relatively low utilization, it should be manageable.

Meanwhile at WestJet, I'm not quite sure... fly an extra 737-700 or two? I am not sure how many of their 737 in the fleet are ETOPS certified or even certified to fly over oceans... Although they have a relatively small fleet to handle.
Airbus:319,320,332,333,343,345,346,359,388
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vfw614
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:16 pm

While I am happy to admit that we do not know to what extent, if any, the MCAS issue has contributed to the two accidents. let me ask this: Is MCAS only an issue for the MAX 8 or also for the MAX 9 and MAX 10? If the issue is limited to the MAX 8, the answer to the question asked may be different than if the issue is related to the MAX per se (I am sure the answer to my question is buried somewhere in 50+ pages discussing the recent crash, but I shall ask anyway...)
Last edited by vfw614 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
c933103
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:17 pm

ANA said “We are hearing the accident is under investigation by the authorities, so at this point there is nothing new to announce, like suspending the order,”
Say NO to Hong Kong police's cooperation with criminal organizations like triad.
 
sibibom
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:18 pm

I suspect, a few months delay, all their resources will go into sorting this mess asap. Stock prices will overreact. One year down the line everything will be back to normal. PR disaster is going to take lots of undoing, but nothing that a company of Boeing's capabilities can't handle.

B797 may not be launched this year, but now I think work will take into account an earlier than planned NSA.
 
AIRT0M
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:24 pm

@planecane

It doesn't really matter, if it was related to MAX or not anymore. The damage is done. The first airlines are thinking about swapping the MAX for other planes. Joe Average today thinks a Boeing 737 (most people don't know it's just the MAX) is a deathrap. Luckily people forget quickly. In a few months (after a grounding and a possible fix by Boeing) everything will be back to normal.
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:30 pm

sibibom wrote:
I suspect, a few months delay, all their resources will go into sorting this mess asap. Stock prices will overreact. One year down the line everything will be back to normal. PR disaster is going to take lots of undoing, but nothing that a company of Boeing's capabilities can't handle.

B797 may not be launched this year, but now I think work will take into account an earlier than planned NSA.


Now is a good time to buy Boeing stock.
 
eidvm
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:32 pm

How long would a software fix take to roll out across the remaining 348 MAX aircraft? Realistically could they be all airborne by the end of the week even if this was an MCAS issue with a simple software update?

Or would they be looking at introducing extra redundency such as a third AOA probe in line with later designed aircraft and if so how long would that take to be refitted? Could we be looking at 3+ weeks for a fix of that magnitude?
 
fsabo
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:34 pm

par13del wrote:
Authority to sell the 797 is a go, as it will proof new production and vendor contracts for the new NSA.
Airbus to increase production to take additional market share, airlines need a/c to operate, expect price increase on the A320 line.
Boeing has to find software fix, hardware will be too expensive, better to hold those funds for the NSA which has to start at almost the same time as the 797, that there are no new engines to make a large enough leap in efficiency has been overtaken by the lack of pax wanting to fly on anything named 737, most don't know the NG from the MAX, they just know 737.
PR department cancelling all vacations as lots of work to be done over the next few month.


I wouldn't be so sure about a software fix. MCAS is required because of the aircraft's tendency to pitch up into a stall. That means it must be reliable. A single sensor failure is not allowed to disable it. With two sensors you then have to have an algorithm that decides which one to believe in case a disagreement. That is prone to failure, it is at best an educated guessing game.

I believe this system design taken into account with the two accidents is the reasoning for the groundings. A single sensor failure combined with pilot confusion is enough for death of all people on board. Only two cheese holes need to line up for tragedy.
 
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GEUltraFan9XGTF
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:37 pm

I would argue that, from a PR standpoint, the reputation of the 737 MAX 8 is irrevocably damaged. Then again, people don't have a memory for news beyond a certain point.

If this PR nightmare translates to a curtail of orders, lawsuits, refunds, etc. then one thing Boeing could do is "go" with NMA on one end and strengthen Embraer on the other until NSA is a go to make sure Airbus doesn't run away even more with the NB market.

The bigger question is to what extent does this PR nightmare damage the Boeing (and FAA) brands and impact the sales of other models? Is this the leg up that COMAC has been waiting for? (Tinfoil hat: maybe China hacked MCAS?)
Last edited by GEUltraFan9XGTF on Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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VSMUT
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:39 pm

Assuming the 737 is at fault for these 2 crashes:

Either they will throw a lot of resources at fixing the 737, and they will start returning to the sky again at some point within half a year at the most.

Or the 737MAX proves so hamstrung that they are forced to drop the MOM concept and pile all resources into an all-new NSA ASAP. This would be bad, because it means abandoning another project, essentially writing off the 737MAX investment and building an NSA with current day technology, making it easier for Airbus to one-up it in the future.

If the authorities require something drastic that increases the weight and price of the plane, that could result in the second scenario. Even if the MAX returns to the sky, customers will be furious, a number of cancellations likely and compensations certain. More than a few customers would also be annoyed if training requirements changed significantly, since it was sold as an aircraft that all 737NG crews could operate seamlessly.


I wouldn't be surprised if they drop the "MAX" bit sooner or later, and just call it the 737-8.
 
sibibom
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:40 pm

flyingclrs727 wrote:
sibibom wrote:
I suspect, a few months delay, all their resources will go into sorting this mess asap. Stock prices will overreact. One year down the line everything will be back to normal. PR disaster is going to take lots of undoing, but nothing that a company of Boeing's capabilities can't handle.

B797 may not be launched this year, but now I think work will take into account an earlier than planned NSA.


Now is a good time to buy Boeing stock.


I would wait for a few weeks, but yes as dramatic as the stock price falls, there will be a meteoric rise down the line. How and when depends on how bad the actual situation is. Which can be everything back to air in a week to a year in the worst case.
 
DDR
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:41 pm

A year from now, we will remember this but the average public will not. To them a 737 is a 737. I had friends fly back from HI a week after the DC-10s were back in the air. I asked them what kind of plane they flew on, and they said "a big silver one."
 
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Zoedyn
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:42 pm

How long will the grounding last?
I think nobody knows for sure right now

All depends on rapidity of investigators pinpointing the exact causes and Boeing engineers coming up with fully convincing solutions

The quicker, the better
The longer, the more nightmares

But then, regardless of the tangible material damage Boeing has been incurring in the two crashes, which undoubtedly must be huge and massive in dollar terms, it seems to me a way more profound and inestimable loss of truly hard-won wealth for Boeing may well be the crumbling of the modern myth/image of the Boeing corporation/brand itself as a virtually impeccable engineering marvel that has been so deeply cherished by countless ppl all over the world in admiration, whose hearts may now get a sting with doubts and suspicions creeping upon, which would be a truly lamentable thing

After all, as we all know, a beautiful, valued palace takes decades, even centuries to build, but may get burnt down literally overnight, cases of which are many in history

Fingers crossed for Boeing to wisely walk away from all this mess ASAP
 
gwrudolph
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:56 pm

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I would argue that, from a PR standpoint, the reputation of the 737 MAX 8 is irrevocably damaged. Then again, people don't have a memory for news beyond a certain point.

If this PR nightmare translates to a curtail of orders, lawsuits, refunds, etc. then one thing Boeing could do is "go" with NMA on one end and strengthen Embraer on the other until NSA is a go to make sure Airbus doesn't run away even more with the NB market.

The bigger question is to what extent does this PR nightmare damage the Boeing (and FAA) brands and impact the sales of other models? Is this the leg up that COMAC has been waiting for? (Tinfoil hat: maybe China hacked MCAS?)


I think that's exaggerated speculation. The 787 was grounded, and now no one even remembers. The 737 had the rudder hardover issue which likely resulted (I say likely because UA585 was never proven) in two deadly crashes in a short period of time. The DC10 had many big problems over the years including grounding, and it flew on for years beyond. Boeing will put in a fix, people will forget, and everything will go back to normal.
 
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Revelation
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:05 pm

planecane wrote:
Perhaps we should wait for questions that require wild speculation until there is SOME info on what caused the ET crash first. What if it turns out to be something not related to the MAX at all?

Seems the world has blown past such simple considerations.

GEUltraFan9XGTF wrote:
I would argue that, from a PR standpoint, the reputation of the 737 MAX 8 is irrevocably damaged. Then again, people don't have a memory for news beyond a certain point.

Hmm, "irrevocably damaged" or "people don't have a memory" -- pick one...
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spinotter
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:06 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
I know Southwest has operated 737's exclusively for 50 plus years now ,
but I think they need to re-visit their plans to become an all MAX airline
in the next 10 plus years. The PR damage done to the MAX brand isn't
going away , not with the power of social media anymore.


I think that it is premature to make such a claim. No one yet knows much about the ET accident. MCAS can be tweaked. Boeing will do what is necessary to solve the problem and thus save the brand.
 
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spinotter
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:09 pm

Zoedyn wrote:
How long will the grounding last?
I think nobody knows for sure right now

All depends on rapidity of investigators pinpointing the exact causes and Boeing engineers coming up with fully convincing solutions

The quicker, the better
The longer, the more nightmares

But then, regardless of the tangible material damage Boeing has been incurring in the two crashes, which undoubtedly must be huge and massive in dollar terms, it seems to me a way more profound and inestimable loss of truly hard-won wealth for Boeing may well be the crumbling of the modern myth/image of the Boeing corporation/brand itself as a virtually impeccable engineering marvel that has been so deeply cherished by countless ppl all over the world in admiration, whose hearts may now get a sting with doubts and suspicions creeping upon, which would be a truly lamentable thing

After all, as we all know, a beautiful, valued palace takes decades, even centuries to build, but may get burnt down literally overnight, cases of which are many in history

Fingers crossed for Boeing to wisely walk away from all this mess ASAP


You can claim modern myth status and an impeccable engineering marvel status for Boeing after the Potemkin rollout of the 787? Please! Boeing has weathered worse problems than this and will continue to do so in the future.
 
n729pa
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:09 pm

It's not the first time there's been a series of similar aircraft involved in incidents fairly close together that caused a media storm.

Comet infamous accidents in the 50s
B727 a series for crashes in the first couple of years operation
DC10 well documented
B747 mid 80s when fatigue cracks were found in a number of older high cycle frames after the JAL accident (not forgetting Air India loss 6-7 weeks earlier - pending investigation)
A320 in the first year or two there were concerns about the fly by wire systems after the Air France and Indian Airlines crashes
Concorde .. everytime the toilet blocked it was "another incident"
B787 again well documented
A380 following QF32 suddenly a media storm about x airline had x faulty engines (or slightest thing wrong)

So there's been a run of issues of one kind or another before and there will be again. The media like to join up the dots to make a chain and story. That's not to diminish the importance of some of them but something else comes along and the circus turns it head.

Once we know what the cause is, it will be sorted because that is what the industry does. If it's a major PR problem for Boeing and the Airlines then they can always rebrand them as B737-1000, 1100 etc and loose the "Max" titles so the average person doesn't realise or associate them.
 
KentB27
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:46 am

Boeing will do whatever is needed to solve the problem (if anything is necessary at all). I don't see these MAX 8s being grounded for more than 90 days or so. I would probably guess it will be less time than that even. The flying public probably won't even think twice about getting on a 737 MAX in another 6 months or so if Boeing handles this in a timely and effective manner. People's memories are incredibly short when it comes to these types of events. I personally really don't think that the future of the MAX series is at stake right now.
 
dtw2hyd
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:51 pm

eidvm wrote:
How long would a software fix take to roll out across the remaining 348 MAX aircraft? Realistically could they be all airborne by the end of the week even if this was an MCAS issue with a simple software update?

Or would they be looking at introducing extra redundency such as a third AOA probe in line with later designed aircraft and if so how long would that take to be refitted? Could we be looking at 3+ weeks for a fix of that magnitude?


The third sensor would take 1-2 years.

First, get over the mindset that a new college hire programmer is better than the pilot.

Give humans complete control over MCAS, ie., simple way to cut off, and it should remain off until the pilot turns it back on. Like STS?

It may be a rough ride but I am sure pilots can safely land the plane if some invisible hand is not trimming nose down behind their back.
 
mandala499
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Re: How these two crashes affect Boeing and the 737 MAX programme in the future?

Fri Mar 15, 2019 1:27 pm

dtw2hyd wrote:
Give humans complete control over MCAS, ie., simple way to cut off, and it should remain off until the pilot turns it back on. Like STS?

If that takes too long, get AOA DISAGREE option to be mandatory... then change procedure to
"if AOA DISAGREE after takeoff", do not fully retract flaps, land ASAP"; and
"if AOA DISAGREE at any other phase. LAND ASAP, consider deployment of flaps to disable MCAS"
They can do this tomorrow... but then... what are the hurdles to this?
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !

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