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enilria
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If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:58 pm

I usually don't do threads like this, but since there is talk of breaking up Amazon I thought I'd ask how you would structure a 5th mega-airline carved out of the other 4 (WN/DL/AA/UA) for the purpose of increasing competition. My goal would be to take a hub from each airline that they probably would not groan too much politically about losing, and fashion the whole mess into a fairly competitive nationwide network.

Here's my suggestion:
WN - Take ATL gates from WN to allow the airline to have a SE presence. IMHO, WN has already decided BNA will be the hub for the region anyway, so this would really be a way to recreate the competition ATL has traditionally had with Air Tran and Eastern before.

UA- This was the hardest one. Clearly with both IAD and EWR, taking one was the logical choice. Despite the proximity to ATL, I think taking IAD has to be the better political choice. I think UA would fight to the death to keep EWR, but would likely part with IAD much more easily.

DL- I think MSP is the logical choice as it has overlap with the purpose of SEA/SLC/DTW.

AA- I think the new entity would need a Western hub and with PHX lodged between DFW and LAX it makes the most sense. Plus, AA would probably not fall on a sword to save it.

Clearly, ATL/IAD/MSP/PHX would make up the weakest network of the 5, but I think you can argue that all of these hubs except maybe MSP are probably as well or better off in the hands of a new, growing competitor. This would carrier would have national market breadth and would have the ability to compete, particularly if it was not saddled with high cost from the transaction that created it. Obviously this would have to come with outstation gates/slots, employees, and planes. The new network would be weak in the West Coast, but only UA really has a dominant hub on the Pacific, so there isn't much justification to take it. Maybe it merges with B6 and AS and becomes a powerhouse, although we'd be back to having even fewer airlines, so I don't love that.

The question is, could this airline make any money? I guess with the right costs...
 
planecane
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:16 pm

Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.
 
cledaybuck
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:21 pm

enilria wrote:
The question is, could this airline make any money? I guess with the right costs...
No (well maybe only in really good times). This airline is going to be a distant second in ATL, second in DC, and have intense competition in PHX. The only thing it would really having going for it would be MSP.
 
IPFreely
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:22 pm

Just take a hub from each airline and give it to another airline? This site gets crazier every day.
 
FermiParadox
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:23 pm

planecane wrote:
Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.


This is surely a joke, right?

I know we're all airline enthusiasts on this website, but the US3 + WN are a clear example of an oligopoly. The airlines price in concert with one another (see: Advantage Fares being gone) and collude through the use of what the DOJ has called "Cross-market Initiatives" which is effectively saying "Get your price up in my market or I'll lower ours in yours". The airlines have divvied up the marketplace and are largely content to not infringe on one another at the dramatic cost to the consumer.

A lot of airline employees and enthusiasts on here will do hand-wringing and mental gymnastics to "prove" it's not so, but for anyone who has worked in a commercial function of one of the big airlines, it's clear what's happening.
 
klm617
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:30 pm

planecane wrote:
Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.


Once you have an environment where the provider can dictate the price of their services rather than what the market will bear then you have a monopoly. It much easier to get four huge organizations to get on board with the same pricing than it is to get 12 onboard as was in the past. Even with five the playing field will still be slanted towards the cooperate side rather than the customer base.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
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GlobalAirways
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:34 pm

IPFreely wrote:
Just take a hub from each airline and give it to another airline? This site gets crazier every day.


Right, "what if the sky was red?"
There is little difference in people, but that little difference makes a big difference. The little difference is attitude. The big difference is whether it is positive or negative. ~ W. Clement Stone
 
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thewizbizman
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:40 pm

Delta would never give up MSP, American would never give up PHX.
Both of those hubs are crucial to both airlines domestic operations. They are the airlines main secondary domestic hubs.
For Delta it goes ATL, DTW, MSP, with DTW. ATL the fortress, DTW the international, with still heavy domestic operations, and MSP the main domestic hub with lighter international traffic.
Same goes for American, just swap ATL for DFW, DTW for CLT and MSP for PHX.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:41 pm

IAD, ATL, PHX hubs would seem similar to pre-merger US Airways PHL/DCA, CLT, PHX. This hypothetical airline wouldn't be able to dominate ATL or the DC market though in the way US could at PHL and CLT, and US of course didn't have a midwest hub like MSP.
 
N408BN
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:05 pm

Create something akin to Braniff. Something with some style and verve,
We liked flying Braniff Style
 
blockski
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:08 pm

thewizbizman wrote:
Delta would never give up MSP, American would never give up PHX.
Both of those hubs are crucial to both airlines domestic operations. They are the airlines main secondary domestic hubs.
For Delta it goes ATL, DTW, MSP, with DTW. ATL the fortress, DTW the international, with still heavy domestic operations, and MSP the main domestic hub with lighter international traffic.
Same goes for American, just swap ATL for DFW, DTW for CLT and MSP for PHX.


At least give the premise of the question some credit. In that scenario, the government would determine that the airlines are too large and non-competitive and then make a move to break them up. What Delta wants to give up, in that scenario, is irrelevant.

The challenge is this: what problem would this seek to address? Simply forcing each airline to divest a hub isn't going to magically make things more competitive. How are you even going to define competition? Even if you had five national network carriers, the scope of their competition is a lot different. Like, an MSP-based traveler isn't necessarily going to see lower fares; they're stuck in a captive market whether that market is held captive by Delta or by someone else.

I'm not sure what other options are out there, short of a return to the CAB. I suppose you could have a situation where the government limits the market share in certain hub airports to ensure that competitors can enter, but even so, a lot of markets simply aren't big enough to support a lot of competition. It's a very challenging problem.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:11 pm

planecane wrote:
Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.


Amazon is hardly a monopoly in retail. I suspect WN has a bigger share of domestic ticket sales than Amazon has of retail purchases.
 
GalebG4
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:12 pm

I have better idea.
USE WHOLE AIRPORT AS HUB INSTEAD OF AIRLINE INSIDE OF AIRPORT!!!
Since point to point carriers are more efficient than traditional hub and spoke model, why don’t we make whole airport with every airline and flight connecting with each other as hub instead of airline inside of airport connecting it’s own flights.
1. Make airports as hub so any passengers from one airline can connect to another airline without any codeshare, jv or interline. Something that is Stansted trying as Stansted airport virtual interline.
2. That way we can have any airline filling the aircraft without it’s own airline network.
Example:
Passengers from Easyjet connects to Emirates flight without any interline, code share or JV at any airport.
Airlines that are exclusively flying a380 or 747 in dense configuration filling the plane as point to point carrier with feed from every carrier on that airport. This idea is similar to open skies in 70’s because it’s intended to take down hub and spoke monopolies at airports like DXB, EWR, FRA, LHR, IAD, ICN and make competing every airport with each airport without major airline hub in it.
Example:
Ryanair, Wizz air feed Air China and LOT long haul flights in Budapest without even knowing.
Something like long haul point to point ULCC with feed from every flight on that airport.
Extreme example:
Lion air passengers connecting to AirAsiaX flight without even knowing that he bought two separate tickets for two different carriers without any JV, interline, codeshare or anything similar.
Kiwi is already doing something like this and it is extremely successful.
What do you think?
Last edited by GalebG4 on Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:23 pm, edited 4 times in total.
 
BigGSFO
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:15 pm

The government wouldn't seize a hub and deliver it to another company. There's about 100 things wrong with that, least of all where would this hypothetical airline get the assets to operate this new hub. Planes? Equipment? Leases? Staffing? Is the government going to subsidize this new airline so that they don't immediately crumble, which going from zero to four big hubs is an impossible task even under perfect conditions.

I don't think the US air marketplace is lacking in competition. If they gubm'nt wants to improve competition, they already have the tools to do that: they can restrict acquisitions, improve grants for underserved airports, etc.
 
CobaltScar
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:24 pm

Would be easier for the government to smooth the merger of B6/Alaska and then snatch choice facilities out of the clutches of fortress hubs and hand them over to this new larger airline. Which is already in the works more or less if you follow the B6 complaint letters to government officials.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:27 pm

blockski wrote:
thewizbizman wrote:
Delta would never give up MSP, American would never give up PHX.
Both of those hubs are crucial to both airlines domestic operations. They are the airlines main secondary domestic hubs.
For Delta it goes ATL, DTW, MSP, with DTW. ATL the fortress, DTW the international, with still heavy domestic operations, and MSP the main domestic hub with lighter international traffic.
Same goes for American, just swap ATL for DFW, DTW for CLT and MSP for PHX.


At least give the premise of the question some credit. In that scenario, the government would determine that the airlines are too large and non-competitive and then make a move to break them up. What Delta wants to give up, in that scenario, is irrelevant.

The challenge is this: what problem would this seek to address? Simply forcing each airline to divest a hub isn't going to magically make things more competitive. How are you even going to define competition? Even if you had five national network carriers, the scope of their competition is a lot different. Like, an MSP-based traveler isn't necessarily going to see lower fares; they're stuck in a captive market whether that market is held captive by Delta or by someone else.

I'm not sure what other options are out there, short of a return to the CAB. I suppose you could have a situation where the government limits the market share in certain hub airports to ensure that competitors can enter, but even so, a lot of markets simply aren't big enough to support a lot of competition. It's a very challenging problem.

The problem with the industry is that they treat it like phone service, where 3 or 4 providers create effective nationwide competition. The reality is that you can make a phone call of more or less equal value to the consumer from anywhere in the USA to anywhere in the USA. The same cannot be said of air service. Clearly a connect or a double connect is often not competitive and you end up with one carrier controlling sales in a particular city.

Here are the top 200 largest originating markets, their largest carrier, and that carrier's % of passenger originating from that airport from domestic DB1B.

Sure there are a lot of alternate airports at the top that are not that meaningful, but once you get past those the industry is one of the least competitive in terms of market share domination on a city by city basis. That domination exists because in those cities there's really only one choice for breadth of product.

TTN - F9 - 100%
LBE - NK - 100%
ACY - NK - 100%
KTN - AS - 98%
BLI - AS - 98%
GUM - UA - 98%
JNU - AS - 97%
MDW - WN - 97%
ITO - HA - 94%
HOU - WN - 94%
DAL - WN - 92%
FAI - AS - 86%
ANC - AS - 80%
LGB - B6 - 80%
CMI - AA - 79%
HRL - WN - 78%
MLB - DL - 77%
DFW - AA - 77%
MBS - DL - 76%
CLT - AA - 76%
MIA - AA - 76%
GRK - AA - 75%
ASE - UA - 75%
BUR - WN - 75%
STS - AS - 74%
LIH - HA - 74%
ILM - AA - 72%
OAK - WN - 72%
HNL - HA - 72%
IAH - UA - 70%
OGG - HA - 70%
BQN - B6 - 69%
AGS - DL - 68%
TRI - DL - 68%
COU - AA - 68%
IAD - UA - 68%
ATW - DL - 67%
GRB - DL - 67%
EWR - UA - 67%
DAB - DL - 67%
AZO - DL - 66%
MSP - DL - 66%
SBN - DL - 65%
ATL - DL - 64%
KOA - HA - 64%
HLN - DL - 64%
BWI - WN - 63%
OAJ - AA - 62%
SRQ - DL - 62%
PHF - AA - 61%
MGM - DL - 60%
DLH - DL - 60%
LNK - UA - 60%
CHO - AA - 60%
LBB - WN - 60%
ONT - WN - 60%
PHL - AA - 60%
ISP - WN - 60%
STL - WN - 60%
BNA - WN - 59%
GNV - DL - 59%
DTW - DL - 59%
HPN - B6 - 59%
SMF - WN - 58%
MHT - WN - 58%
SGF - AA - 58%
LAN - DL - 58%
MAF - WN - 58%
SLC - DL - 58%
CWA - DL - 58%
SBP - UA - 58%
XNA - AA - 57%
MCI - WN - 57%
LEX - DL - 57%
MYR - NK - 57%
ECP - DL - 57%
ABQ - WN - 57%
AMA - WN - 56%
CHA - DL - 56%
TLH - DL - 56%
SWF - B6 - 55%
MFE - AA - 55%
RST - DL - 55%
AVP - AA - 55%
SEA - AS - 54%
ELP - WN - 54%
DRO - UA - 54%
GPT - DL - 53%
CVG - DL - 53%
FAR - DL - 52%
SBA - UA - 52%
VPS - DL - 52%
BMI - AA - 52%
BIS - DL - 52%
GTF - DL - 51%
RNO - WN - 51%
MDT - AA - 51%
BFL - AA - 51%
PSC - DL - 51%
GJT - AA - 50%
SJC - WN - 50%
PIA - AA - 50%
TVC - DL - 50%
MSN - DL - 50%
BGR - AA - 49%
JAN - DL - 49%
SAT - WN - 48%
DAY - AA - 48%
MKE - WN - 48%
DCA - AA - 48%
MRY - UA - 48%
RDM - AS - 48%
ROA - AA - 48%
CAE - DL - 47%
FNT - DL - 47%
HSV - DL - 47%
SHV - AA - 47%
FAY - AA - 47%
MOB - DL - 46%
BIL - DL - 46%
GSO - DL - 46%
EYW - AA - 46%
SAV - DL - 46%
ABE - DL - 46%
EVV - AA - 45%
ALB - WN - 45%
PVD - WN - 45%
FCA - DL - 44%
AVL - DL - 44%
MSO - DL - 44%
JAC - UA - 44%
PDX - AS - 44%
SFO - UA - 44%
LGA - DL - 43%
BZN - DL - 43%
CMH - WN - 43%
PHX - WN - 43%
FWA - AA - 43%
MSY - WN - 43%
PNS - DL - 43%
GRR - DL - 42%
JFK - B6 - 42%
TYS - DL - 42%
AUS - WN - 42%
OMA - WN - 42%
FAT - AA - 42%
SAN - WN - 41%
ORD - UA - 41%
CRW - AA - 41%
OKC - WN - 41%
IND - WN - 41%
TUL - WN - 41%
GSP - DL - 40%
SNA - WN - 40%
LAS - WN - 39%
MLI - DL - 39%
MFR - AS - 39%
CRP - WN - 39%
LFT - UA - 39%
FSD - DL - 38%
RAP - DL - 38%
STT - AA - 38%
BTR - AA - 38%
BOS - B6 - 38%
BUF - WN - 38%
TUS - AA - 38%
EUG - UA - 37%
DEN - WN - 37%
TPA - WN - 37%
SCE - UA - 37%
COS - F9 - 36%
SDF - WN - 36%
PIT - WN - 35%
RIC - DL - 35%
GEG - AS - 35%
BHM - WN - 35%
ORF - AA - 34%
SYR - AA - 33%
DSM - AA - 33%
PSP - AA - 33%
CAK - AA - 33%
CID - AA - 32%
BTV - UA - 32%
JAX - DL - 32%
MEM - DL - 32%
RDU - DL - 32%
SJU - B6 - 32%
PWM - AA - 31%
LIT - WN - 31%
ROC - DL - 31%
CHS - DL - 31%
PBI - DL - 30%
ICT - UA - 28%
MCO - WN - 27%
BOI - AS - 26%
CLE - UA - 26%
BDL - WN - 26%
FLL - B6 - 25%
RSW - DL - 23%
LAX - AA - 23%
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:29 pm

enilria wrote:
Here are the top 200 largest originating markets, their largest carrier, and that carrier's % of passenger originating from that airport from domestic DB1B.

Sure there are a lot of alternate airports at the top that are not that meaningful, but once you get past those the industry is one of the least competitive in terms of market share domination on a city by city basis. That domination exists because in those cities there's really only one choice for breadth of product.

IMHO, anything over 50% is very bad and that's basically the whole list. Guess what, this is just the top 200 markets, it's SO MUCH WORSE once you get below that. There are basically no competitive markets below the top 200.
 
Moosefire
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:47 pm

Those are airports, not markets. Take a look at the first two for example. TTN & LBE... you’re looking at philly and Pittsburgh, which have no shortage of competition at their primary airports.

Or further down the list with HOU and MDW, or LGB, and the list goes on
MD-11F/C-17A Pilot
 
FlyPNS1
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:51 pm

enilria wrote:
IMHO, anything over 50% is very bad and that's basically the whole list. Guess what, this is just the top 200 markets, it's SO MUCH WORSE once you get below that. There are basically no competitive markets below the top 200.


That's because most of the small markets can't sustain multiple carriers. Air travel demand is simply too tiny to support competition.

Most small cities only have 1 hospital which has a monopoly on care. Should we demand all small cities have multiple hospitals even though there's no demand for the services?
 
ScottB
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:59 pm

enilria wrote:
the industry is one of the least competitive in terms of market share domination on a city by city basis. That domination exists because in those cities there's really only one choice for breadth of product.


That's essentially the product of the hub-and-spoke system. As you noted above:

enilria wrote:
Clearly a connect or a double connect is often not competitive and you end up with one carrier controlling sales in a particular city.


Most hub markets simply aren't large enough to support multiple carriers offering acceptable breadth of destinations and schedule; as we saw at DFW, being about 1/4 or 1/2 the size of AA was death for the DL hub. That's why the large hub markets are dominated and will continue to be dominated. And if passengers aren't willing to accept a connect or a double connect to save money, that's on the passenger -- they do have options even if they're less convenient.
 
Italianflyer
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:06 pm

I think it's an unlikely scinario but not out of the question given the growing populist tendencies of both political parties in the US.
While Telecom/Media & aviation are apples to tennis shoes; AT&T has made some consumer-unfriendly moves that is raising eyebrows in the DoJ, state AG offices and consumer advocacy groups. If this devolves into a political torch & pitchfork situation then misguided 'solutions' aimed at the media, banking, retail, software and...yes... airline industries are plausable.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:18 pm

FermiParadox wrote:
planecane wrote:
Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.


This is surely a joke, right?

I know we're all airline enthusiasts on this website, but the US3 + WN are a clear example of an oligopoly. The airlines price in concert with one another (see: Advantage Fares being gone) and collude through the use of what the DOJ has called "Cross-market Initiatives" which is effectively saying "Get your price up in my market or I'll lower ours in yours". The airlines have divvied up the marketplace and are largely content to not infringe on one another at the dramatic cost to the consumer.

A lot of airline employees and enthusiasts on here will do hand-wringing and mental gymnastics to "prove" it's not so, but for anyone who has worked in a commercial function of one of the big airlines, it's clear what's happening.


There are professional economists working at the Department of Justice who have been responsible for reviewing airline mergers and JVs since the late 90s, when authority was pulled from the FAA. Please cite your professional economics credentials to disparage their work. We can wait.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:21 pm

enilria wrote:
Sure there are a lot of alternate airports at the top that are not that meaningful, but once you get past those the industry is one of the least competitive in terms of market share domination on a city by city basis.
Moosefire wrote:
Those are airports, not markets. Take a look at the first two for example. TTN & LBE... you’re looking at philly and Pittsburgh, which have no shortage of competition at their primary airports.

Or further down the list with HOU and MDW, or LGB, and the list goes on

I see you didn't read what I wrote. BTW, you don't need 100% share to be a near monopoly. Anything over 50% is very bad.

FlyPNS1 wrote:
That's because most of the small markets can't sustain multiple carriers. Air travel demand is simply too tiny to support competition.

DAB is 64% Delta. They have plenty of hospitals. Dozens more examples in that list.
ScottB wrote:
Most hub markets simply aren't large enough to support multiple carriers offering acceptable breadth of destinations and schedule; as we saw at DFW, being about 1/4 or 1/2 the size of AA was death for the DL hub. That's why the large hub markets are dominated and will continue to be dominated. And if passengers aren't willing to accept a connect or a double connect to save money, that's on the passenger -- they do have options even if they're less convenient.

This is why creating a 5th large airline would help. It's actually possible to calculate how much it would help from the DB1B data, but it would be a massive project to move passengers based on their connecting hub to the newly created airline. Of course, that's just math. The real world might react differently.
Italianflyer wrote:
I think it's an unlikely scinario but not out of the question given the growing populist tendencies of both political parties in the US.

I think the DOJ is completely blind to how much market domination exists in markets like JNU, CLT, TRI, and the list goes on and on.
 
kiowa
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:25 pm

Better yet, we could have the government run all the US airlines as one and put the TSA in charge. What could go wrong with that?????
 
GalebG4
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:29 pm

enilria wrote:

TTN - F9 - 100%
LBE - NK - 100%
ACY - NK - 100%
KTN - AS - 98%
BLI - AS - 98%
GUM - UA - 98%
JNU - AS - 97%
MDW - WN - 97%
ITO - HA - 94%
HOU - WN - 94%
DAL - WN - 92%
FAI - AS - 86%
ANC - AS - 80%
LGB - B6 - 80%
CMI - AA - 79%
HRL - WN - 78%
MLB - DL - 77%
DFW - AA - 77%
MBS - DL - 76%
CLT - AA - 76%
MIA - AA - 76%
GRK - AA - 75%
ASE - UA - 75%
BUR - WN - 75%
STS - AS - 74%
LIH - HA - 74%
ILM - AA - 72%
OAK - WN - 72%
HNL - HA - 72%
IAH - UA - 70%
OGG - HA - 70%
BQN - B6 - 69%
AGS - DL - 68%
TRI - DL - 68%
COU - AA - 68%
IAD - UA - 68%
ATW - DL - 67%
GRB - DL - 67%
EWR - UA - 67%
DAB - DL - 67%
AZO - DL - 66%
MSP - DL - 66%
SBN - DL - 65%
ATL - DL - 64%
KOA - HA - 64%
HLN - DL - 64%
BWI - WN - 63%
OAJ - AA - 62%
SRQ - DL - 62%
PHF - AA - 61%
MGM - DL - 60%
DLH - DL - 60%
LNK - UA - 60%
CHO - AA - 60%
LBB - WN - 60%
ONT - WN - 60%
PHL - AA - 60%
ISP - WN - 60%
STL - WN - 60%
BNA - WN - 59%
GNV - DL - 59%
DTW - DL - 59%
HPN - B6 - 59%
SMF - WN - 58%
MHT - WN - 58%
SGF - AA - 58%
LAN - DL - 58%
MAF - WN - 58%
SLC - DL - 58%
CWA - DL - 58%
SBP - UA - 58%
XNA - AA - 57%
MCI - WN - 57%
LEX - DL - 57%
MYR - NK - 57%
ECP - DL - 57%
ABQ - WN - 57%
AMA - WN - 56%
CHA - DL - 56%
TLH - DL - 56%
SWF - B6 - 55%
MFE - AA - 55%
RST - DL - 55%
AVP - AA - 55%
SEA - AS - 54%
ELP - WN - 54%
DRO - UA - 54%
GPT - DL - 53%
CVG - DL - 53%
FAR - DL - 52%
SBA - UA - 52%
VPS - DL - 52%
BMI - AA - 52%
BIS - DL - 52%
GTF - DL - 51%
RNO - WN - 51%
MDT - AA - 51%
BFL - AA - 51%
PSC - DL - 51%
GJT - AA - 50%
SJC - WN - 50%
PIA - AA - 50%
TVC - DL - 50%
MSN - DL - 50%
BGR - AA - 49%
JAN - DL - 49%
SAT - WN - 48%
DAY - AA - 48%
MKE - WN - 48%
DCA - AA - 48%
MRY - UA - 48%
RDM - AS - 48%
ROA - AA - 48%
CAE - DL - 47%
FNT - DL - 47%
HSV - DL - 47%
SHV - AA - 47%
FAY - AA - 47%
MOB - DL - 46%
BIL - DL - 46%
GSO - DL - 46%
EYW - AA - 46%
SAV - DL - 46%
ABE - DL - 46%
EVV - AA - 45%
ALB - WN - 45%
PVD - WN - 45%
FCA - DL - 44%
AVL - DL - 44%
MSO - DL - 44%
JAC - UA - 44%
PDX - AS - 44%
SFO - UA - 44%
LGA - DL - 43%
BZN - DL - 43%
CMH - WN - 43%
PHX - WN - 43%
FWA - AA - 43%
MSY - WN - 43%
PNS - DL - 43%
GRR - DL - 42%
JFK - B6 - 42%
TYS - DL - 42%
AUS - WN - 42%
OMA - WN - 42%
FAT - AA - 42%
SAN - WN - 41%
ORD - UA - 41%
CRW - AA - 41%
OKC - WN - 41%
IND - WN - 41%
TUL - WN - 41%
GSP - DL - 40%
SNA - WN - 40%
LAS - WN - 39%
MLI - DL - 39%
MFR - AS - 39%
CRP - WN - 39%
LFT - UA - 39%
FSD - DL - 38%
RAP - DL - 38%
STT - AA - 38%
BTR - AA - 38%
BOS - B6 - 38%
BUF - WN - 38%
TUS - AA - 38%
EUG - UA - 37%
DEN - WN - 37%
TPA - WN - 37%
SCE - UA - 37%
COS - F9 - 36%
SDF - WN - 36%
PIT - WN - 35%
RIC - DL - 35%
GEG - AS - 35%
BHM - WN - 35%
ORF - AA - 34%
SYR - AA - 33%
DSM - AA - 33%
PSP - AA - 33%
CAK - AA - 33%
CID - AA - 32%
BTV - UA - 32%
JAX - DL - 32%
MEM - DL - 32%
RDU - DL - 32%
SJU - B6 - 32%
PWM - AA - 31%
LIT - WN - 31%
ROC - DL - 31%
CHS - DL - 31%
PBI - DL - 30%
ICT - UA - 28%
MCO - WN - 27%
BOI - AS - 26%
CLE - UA - 26%
BDL - WN - 26%
FLL - B6 - 25%
RSW - DL - 23%
LAX - AA - 23%

REASON WHY WHOLE AIRPORTS WITH ALL FLIGHTS SHOULD COMPETE INSTEAD OF ONE AIRLINE INSIDE OF AIRPORT HOLDING MONOPOLY!!!
COMPETITION ON EVERY ROUTE WITH FEED FROM EVERY FLIGHT ON THAT AIRPORT!!!
 
GalebG4
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:42 pm

What we need is “HUB DEREGULATION ACT” like the “AIRLINE DEREGULATION ACT” which is going to force airlines to complete with each other on every route with feed from every flight on departing airport.
 
jplatts
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:42 pm

enilria wrote:
WN - Take ATL gates from WN to allow the airline to have a SE presence. IMHO, WN has already decided BNA will be the hub for the region anyway, so this would really be a way to recreate the competition ATL has traditionally had with Air Tran and Eastern before.


List of WN nonstop routes in US3 hub or focus city markets without any nonstop competition:
Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC: (BWI/DCA/IAD): BWI-ABQ, BWI-MKE, BWI-ECP, DCA-MKE
Boston, MA (BOS/PVD/MHT): BOS-STL
Miami/Fort Lauderdale, FL (MIA/FLL): FLL-MKE
Los Angeles, CA (LAX/BUR/LGB/SNA/ONT): LAX-MKE
Phoenix, AZ (PHX/AZA): PHX-BUF, PHX-LIT, PHX-SDF, PHX-BNA, PHX-MSY, PHX-TUL
Raleigh/Durham, NC (RDU): RDU-MCI, RDU-STL
San Francisco, CA (SFO/OAK/SJC): SFO-MKE

All of WN's current nonstop routes out of CLT, MDW, CVG, DAL, DEN, DTW, HOU, MSP, LGA, EWR, PHL, SLC, and SEA already have nonstop competition on at least one carrier.

MCO-SMF is currently the only WN nonstop route out of MCO that doesn't have any nonstop competition, and the remaining WN nonstop routes out of MCO already have nonstop competition out of either MCO or SFB on at least one additional airline.

There is no real need to break up WN since most of WN's nonstop routes in US3 hub or focus city markets already have nonstop competition on at least one additional airline. Most of the WN nonstop routes that lack nonstop competition are in markets that are not hubs or focus cities for any of the US3 carriers.
 
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millionsofmiles
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:01 pm

Slow news day.
 
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thewizbizman
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:27 pm

blockski wrote:
thewizbizman wrote:
Delta would never give up MSP, American would never give up PHX.
Both of those hubs are crucial to both airlines domestic operations. They are the airlines main secondary domestic hubs.
For Delta it goes ATL, DTW, MSP, with DTW. ATL the fortress, DTW the international, with still heavy domestic operations, and MSP the main domestic hub with lighter international traffic.
Same goes for American, just swap ATL for DFW, DTW for CLT and MSP for PHX.


At least give the premise of the question some credit. In that scenario, the government would determine that the airlines are too large and non-competitive and then make a move to break them up. What Delta wants to give up, in that scenario, is irrelevant.

The challenge is this: what problem would this seek to address? Simply forcing each airline to divest a hub isn't going to magically make things more competitive. How are you even going to define competition? Even if you had five national network carriers, the scope of their competition is a lot different. Like, an MSP-based traveler isn't necessarily going to see lower fares; they're stuck in a captive market whether that market is held captive by Delta or by someone else.

I'm not sure what other options are out there, short of a return to the CAB. I suppose you could have a situation where the government limits the market share in certain hub airports to ensure that competitors can enter, but even so, a lot of markets simply aren't big enough to support a lot of competition. It's a very challenging problem.


It is and I definitely agree with you. I think there is some truth to the statement, without the CAB and airline regulation, monopoly will form. After deregulation. it did not take long until the mass airline mergers began, and it seems, that at least for now, after Virgin and Alaska, they are done.

But some food for thought, Moxy, is there room for them in the market? If an airline is not even able to join the competition and take some market share the DOJ may look at breaking up the big 4, so I guess, this is a valid scenario. But, again monopolies would continue to form. I think its inevitable unless regulation is reinstated, but hey, thats capitalism.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:43 pm

thewizbizman wrote:
blockski wrote:
thewizbizman wrote:
Delta would never give up MSP, American would never give up PHX.
Both of those hubs are crucial to both airlines domestic operations. They are the airlines main secondary domestic hubs.
For Delta it goes ATL, DTW, MSP, with DTW. ATL the fortress, DTW the international, with still heavy domestic operations, and MSP the main domestic hub with lighter international traffic.
Same goes for American, just swap ATL for DFW, DTW for CLT and MSP for PHX.


At least give the premise of the question some credit. In that scenario, the government would determine that the airlines are too large and non-competitive and then make a move to break them up. What Delta wants to give up, in that scenario, is irrelevant.

The challenge is this: what problem would this seek to address? Simply forcing each airline to divest a hub isn't going to magically make things more competitive. How are you even going to define competition? Even if you had five national network carriers, the scope of their competition is a lot different. Like, an MSP-based traveler isn't necessarily going to see lower fares; they're stuck in a captive market whether that market is held captive by Delta or by someone else.

I'm not sure what other options are out there, short of a return to the CAB. I suppose you could have a situation where the government limits the market share in certain hub airports to ensure that competitors can enter, but even so, a lot of markets simply aren't big enough to support a lot of competition. It's a very challenging problem.


It is and I definitely agree with you. I think there is some truth to the statement, without the CAB and airline regulation, monopoly will form. After deregulation. it did not take long until the mass airline mergers began, and it seems, that at least for now, after Virgin and Alaska, they are done.

But some food for thought, Moxy, is there room for them in the market? If an airline is not even able to join the competition and take some market share the DOJ may look at breaking up the big 4, so I guess, this is a valid scenario. But, again monopolies would continue to form. I think its inevitable unless regulation is reinstated, but hey, thats capitalism.

There's 3 problems:
1) There's not enough Moxys. This will be about the only well financed new carrier to enter the world's biggest air market in what 2 decades? Anyway, a really long time...
2) There's no gates. Obviously the slotted airports are blocked. But now EWR/ORD/CLT/BNA/DAL/DEN/etc are all out of gates too. So maybe you can get one gate at a major airport if you scream loud enough, but that one gate isn't big enough to accomplish anything.
3) Even a well-financed Moxy says they will only fly routes not flown because they know the Big4 have so much market power they will crush them at the cost of $50m (maybe?) and then raise fares to make up the lost $50m in short order.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 6:46 pm

jplatts wrote:
There is no real need to break up WN

Actually if you talk to airline real estate people in the USA, they will tell you that WN has become the most aggressive about pressuring airports to deny gates and other benefits to new entrants...not just in DAL (although that battle with VX and DL seems to be when WN shifted gears). Also, WN losing ATL is probably a blessing as long as they keep 2 or 3 gates. The data shows DL is crushing them.
 
blockski
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 7:57 pm

enilria wrote:
thewizbizman wrote:
blockski wrote:

At least give the premise of the question some credit. In that scenario, the government would determine that the airlines are too large and non-competitive and then make a move to break them up. What Delta wants to give up, in that scenario, is irrelevant.

The challenge is this: what problem would this seek to address? Simply forcing each airline to divest a hub isn't going to magically make things more competitive. How are you even going to define competition? Even if you had five national network carriers, the scope of their competition is a lot different. Like, an MSP-based traveler isn't necessarily going to see lower fares; they're stuck in a captive market whether that market is held captive by Delta or by someone else.

I'm not sure what other options are out there, short of a return to the CAB. I suppose you could have a situation where the government limits the market share in certain hub airports to ensure that competitors can enter, but even so, a lot of markets simply aren't big enough to support a lot of competition. It's a very challenging problem.


It is and I definitely agree with you. I think there is some truth to the statement, without the CAB and airline regulation, monopoly will form. After deregulation. it did not take long until the mass airline mergers began, and it seems, that at least for now, after Virgin and Alaska, they are done.

But some food for thought, Moxy, is there room for them in the market? If an airline is not even able to join the competition and take some market share the DOJ may look at breaking up the big 4, so I guess, this is a valid scenario. But, again monopolies would continue to form. I think its inevitable unless regulation is reinstated, but hey, thats capitalism.

There's 3 problems:
1) There's not enough Moxys. This will be about the only well financed new carrier to enter the world's biggest air market in what 2 decades? Anyway, a really long time...
2) There's no gates. Obviously the slotted airports are blocked. But now EWR/ORD/CLT/BNA/DAL/DEN/etc are all out of gates too. So maybe you can get one gate at a major airport if you scream loud enough, but that one gate isn't big enough to accomplish anything.
3) Even a well-financed Moxy says they will only fly routes not flown because they know the Big4 have so much market power they will crush them at the cost of $50m (maybe?) and then raise fares to make up the lost $50m in short order.


Without returning to the CAB regulating routes and fares, I do think there's an opportunity for the government to force more competition at some airports, either by mandating re-allocation of slots/gates, imposing some kind of forced divestiture of gates under certain circumstances, etc.

I don't know if this would make a difference or not, but it would be a middle ground of regulating the conditions that are required for competition without returning to the CAB.
 
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EA CO AS
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:32 pm

GalebG4 wrote:
What we need is “HUB DEREGULATION ACT” like the “AIRLINE DEREGULATION ACT” which is going to force airlines to complete with each other on every route with feed from every flight on departing airport.


Get ready to pay 3X as much for your tickets, then. Hub and spoke networks allow carriers economies of scale that permit them to profitably serve cities that wouldn’t otherwise get air service. Then, when people stop flying since it’s more expensive, look for mass layoffs at not just airlines, but hotels, car rental companies, cruise lines, theme parks, and pretty much any other industry that relies on air travel. Congratulations, you’ve set the country back 50 years and sparked a recession that makes 2008/2009 look like a day at the beach.
"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan

Comments made here are my own and are not intended to represent the official position of Alaska Air Group
 
FermiParadox
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
FermiParadox wrote:
planecane wrote:
Since there are 4 big airlines, there is no pseudo Monopoly like with Amazon. Also, Amazon's pricing model adversely effects thousands of other businesses. Airlines aren't predatorial in taking business from other transportation companies. It's not remotely the same issue.


This is surely a joke, right?

I know we're all airline enthusiasts on this website, but the US3 + WN are a clear example of an oligopoly. The airlines price in concert with one another (see: Advantage Fares being gone) and collude through the use of what the DOJ has called "Cross-market Initiatives" which is effectively saying "Get your price up in my market or I'll lower ours in yours". The airlines have divvied up the marketplace and are largely content to not infringe on one another at the dramatic cost to the consumer.

A lot of airline employees and enthusiasts on here will do hand-wringing and mental gymnastics to "prove" it's not so, but for anyone who has worked in a commercial function of one of the big airlines, it's clear what's happening.


There are professional economists working at the Department of Justice who have been responsible for reviewing airline mergers and JVs since the late 90s, when authority was pulled from the FAA. Please cite your professional economics credentials to disparage their work. We can wait.


Well, I have a PhD in Economics from a major university and have worked at a major airline in Revenue Management Operations Research. Is that sufficient for me to have an opinion about the matter? Care to share your credentials?
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 10:58 pm

blockski wrote:
Without returning to the CAB regulating routes and fares, I do think there's an opportunity for the government to force more competition at some airports, either by mandating re-allocation of slots/gates, imposing some kind of forced divestiture of gates under certain circumstances, etc.

I don't know if this would make a difference or not, but it would be a middle ground of regulating the conditions that are required for competition without returning to the CAB.

The FAA could outlaw preferential gate leases. I'd say that the concept of preferential gates is more a USA phenomena than anywhere else. Usually there are just grandfathered flight times. When you change them you lose your gate "slot" in Europe and other places.

EA CO AS wrote:
Get ready to pay 3X as much for your tickets, then. Hub and spoke networks allow carriers economies of scale that permit them to profitably serve cities that wouldn’t otherwise get air service.

Getting rid of preferential gates would improve gate asset utilization, eliminate gate squatting, and return the asset of a gate built with government money to the control of the people rather than an airline.
FermiParadox wrote:
Well, I have a PhD in Economics from a major university and have worked at a major airline in Revenue Management Operations Research. Is that sufficient for me to have an opinion about the matter? Care to share your credentials?

See if you agree with this? Another I'd do is abolish ATPCO. The ability for airlines to have perfect information about the pricing of their competitors is a huge negative for competition. Name another industry with an entity owned and controlled by the competitors that exists to share each other's pricing in real-time? Sure, you could say that Macys can look at Amazon.com and see what they charge, BUT they can't check it every hour and if they did Amazon could easily ban them from screen scraping their site if they wished. When you know exactly what your competitor is charging the best course is to just hit the MATCH button and competition dies a million deaths per hour as the software matches every pricing change...and discourages you from lowering prices if you know you will be immediately matched.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:16 pm

ScottB wrote:
enilria wrote:
the industry is one of the least competitive in terms of market share domination on a city by city basis. That domination exists because in those cities there's really only one choice for breadth of product.


That's essentially the product of the hub-and-spoke system. As you noted above:

enilria wrote:
Clearly a connect or a double connect is often not competitive and you end up with one carrier controlling sales in a particular city.


Most hub markets simply aren't large enough to support multiple carriers offering acceptable breadth of destinations and schedule; as we saw at DFW, being about 1/4 or 1/2 the size of AA was death for the DL hub. That's why the large hub markets are dominated and will continue to be dominated. And if passengers aren't willing to accept a connect or a double connect to save money, that's on the passenger -- they do have options even if they're less convenient.

It's not even about hub markets, it's all the medium sized cities on that list that got there because they had two airlines with 30% share that were allowed to merge into a 60% monopolist.
 
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thewizbizman
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:46 pm

blockski wrote:
enilria wrote:
thewizbizman wrote:

It is and I definitely agree with you. I think there is some truth to the statement, without the CAB and airline regulation, monopoly will form. After deregulation. it did not take long until the mass airline mergers began, and it seems, that at least for now, after Virgin and Alaska, they are done.

But some food for thought, Moxy, is there room for them in the market? If an airline is not even able to join the competition and take some market share the DOJ may look at breaking up the big 4, so I guess, this is a valid scenario. But, again monopolies would continue to form. I think its inevitable unless regulation is reinstated, but hey, thats capitalism.

There's 3 problems:
1) There's not enough Moxys. This will be about the only well financed new carrier to enter the world's biggest air market in what 2 decades? Anyway, a really long time...
2) There's no gates. Obviously the slotted airports are blocked. But now EWR/ORD/CLT/BNA/DAL/DEN/etc are all out of gates too. So maybe you can get one gate at a major airport if you scream loud enough, but that one gate isn't big enough to accomplish anything.
3) Even a well-financed Moxy says they will only fly routes not flown because they know the Big4 have so much market power they will crush them at the cost of $50m (maybe?) and then raise fares to make up the lost $50m in short order.


Without returning to the CAB regulating routes and fares, I do think there's an opportunity for the government to force more competition at some airports, either by mandating re-allocation of slots/gates, imposing some kind of forced divestiture of gates under certain circumstances, etc.

I don't know if this would make a difference or not, but it would be a middle ground of regulating the conditions that are required for competition without returning to the CAB.


I don't know how US airports to it, but Heathrow has a very good way of doing it. An open trade of airport slots, airlines can buy and sell slots from the airport (if available) or airlines. I'm in the US and it's rare to be at an airport that isn't controlled by one airline. I don't think the government should be involved unless absolutely necessary.
 
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enilria
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Fri Mar 22, 2019 1:15 am

thewizbizman wrote:
blockski wrote:
enilria wrote:
There's 3 problems:
1) There's not enough Moxys. This will be about the only well financed new carrier to enter the world's biggest air market in what 2 decades? Anyway, a really long time...
2) There's no gates. Obviously the slotted airports are blocked. But now EWR/ORD/CLT/BNA/DAL/DEN/etc are all out of gates too. So maybe you can get one gate at a major airport if you scream loud enough, but that one gate isn't big enough to accomplish anything.
3) Even a well-financed Moxy says they will only fly routes not flown because they know the Big4 have so much market power they will crush them at the cost of $50m (maybe?) and then raise fares to make up the lost $50m in short order.


Without returning to the CAB regulating routes and fares, I do think there's an opportunity for the government to force more competition at some airports, either by mandating re-allocation of slots/gates, imposing some kind of forced divestiture of gates under certain circumstances, etc.

I don't know if this would make a difference or not, but it would be a middle ground of regulating the conditions that are required for competition without returning to the CAB.


I don't know how US airports to it, but Heathrow has a very good way of doing it. An open trade of airport slots, airlines can buy and sell slots from the airport (if available) or airlines. I'm in the US and it's rare to be at an airport that isn't controlled by one airline. I don't think the government should be involved unless absolutely necessary.

I don't know the LHR system that well, and it may be better, but it is still dominated by one airline...so it must not work that well.
 
UALFAson
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:35 am

While I respect the question and think this discussion has been interesting, to me, I find this to be a solution in search of a problem. I guess I question the initial premise that flying is "too expensive" and the industry not competitive enough and in need of some government entity to "fix" it.

Maybe I have been spoiled because everywhere I have lived in my life (D.C. area, L.A., Nashville) has been served by an airport or airports with lots of competition, but I don't find flying to be that expensive. I can fly BNA-LAX nonstop in a couple of weeks on a choice of carriers for under $300 roundtrip, taxes included. Earlier this month, I was finding BNA-Europe fares for $500-600 all in ONE WEEK OUT (I am still kicking myself for not going to Milan for $512 on AA). How much cheaper do plane tickets need to be?

Even in college when I was in Waco, TX (ACT) and the choices were AA Eagle or CO Express, sometimes it was cheaper to take the commuter connection, sometimes it was cheaper to drive the 2 hours to DFW. Sometimes I was willing to take the chance that the commuter flight wouldn't cancel or be delayed; sometimes I just wanted to drive to DFW to fly nonstop. Either way, I had options, and it was up to me the consumer to decide what I was and wasn't willing to pay for and how much. I don't see how a hypothetical 5th big national airline created from the divested pieces of the existing "Big 4" changes anything.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
winginit
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Fri Mar 22, 2019 3:06 am

klm617 wrote:
Once you have an environment where the provider can dictate the price of their services rather than what the market will bear then you have a monopoly.


No, you don't - by definition. Sounds like we need a refresher on the definition of a monopoly:

The exclusive possession or control of the supply of or trade in a commodity or service.

What you've instead implied is that the major airlines act as a cartel; and since coordinated price fixing in the aviation industry is a federal crime, you'd be hard-pressed to make an argument that the various commercial airliners in the United States are a cartel.
 
IPFreely
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Fri Mar 22, 2019 4:23 am

This entire thread gets more and more absurd.

Why are we stopping at airlines? What about airplane manufacturers? The US may have 4 major airlines but there are only 2 major airplane manufacturers. Boeing really doesn't need all their plants in Seattle, Wichita, and Charleston. And Airbus doesn't really need plants in both Toulouse and Hamburg. Maybe "someone" should just "take" one plant away from each manufacturer, along with the necessary IP and tooling, and "gift it" to a third company to create more competition.
 
FermiParadox
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Re: If the Big4 Airlines Were Broken Up, What Could a 5th Look Like?

Fri Mar 22, 2019 2:39 pm

enilria wrote:
See if you agree with this? Another I'd do is abolish ATPCO. The ability for airlines to have perfect information about the pricing of their competitors is a huge negative for competition. Name another industry with an entity owned and controlled by the competitors that exists to share each other's pricing in real-time? Sure, you could say that Macys can look at Amazon.com and see what they charge, BUT they can't check it every hour and if they did Amazon could easily ban them from screen scraping their site if they wished. When you know exactly what your competitor is charging the best course is to just hit the MATCH button and competition dies a million deaths per hour as the software matches every pricing change...and discourages you from lowering prices if you know you will be immediately matched.


Yep, that's the first thing that I would do if I were at the DOJ. ATPCO is absolutely harming consumers.

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