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GalebG4
Topic Author
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What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:00 am

What do you think is going to happen?
Consolidation
Bankruptcy
Running until there’s enough of political will
 
N174UA
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 4:16 am

I first predict this tread will be moved by the mods to Travel, Polls, and Preferences thread...

Probably a merger or alliance between Garuda and Malaysia. Didn't realize Thai was in any sort of trouble, but they are in Star along with Singapore, so perhaps that might lead to a tie up of some kind.
 
Motorhussy
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:13 am

They each need a charter or constitution of some sort, agreed to by government for the benefit of the people, then to have executive teams given the means to achieve those precepts as set out.

With no government interference.
come visit the south pacific
 
TheEuphorian
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Joined: Tue Jan 03, 2017 9:35 am

Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:45 am

MH is pretty much dead meat for now.

GA just acquired pretty much every airline in Indonesia except for JT/ID/IW/QZ and it might survive longer.

TG, well, its controlled by the Government/Air Force generals but there is a new government in Thailand and because of that, it may get better.
 
VolvoBus
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 1:21 pm

N174UA wrote:
I first predict this tread will be moved by the mods to Travel, Polls, and Preferences thread...

Probably a merger or alliance between Garuda and Malaysia. Didn't realize Thai was in any sort of trouble, but they are in Star along with Singapore, so perhaps that might lead to a tie up of some kind.


Good luck sorting out all the bilaterals.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:07 pm

Its clear MH has been a basketcase for a long time now, and has a decent chance of disappearing, as we know it.

Garuda I predict, continues to evolves towards a long haul, Int'l only operation, domestic ops being economically challenging in a very unique market.

TG I don't see going anywhere, regardless of the famously fluid governance in country. It does not bleed enough red to really bother its state backing, and provides a good product domestic and Int'l to generally compete. Better fleet and route planning might be coming, though.
 
mandala499
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:52 pm

TheEuphorian wrote:
GA just acquired pretty much every airline in Indonesia except for JT/ID/IW/QZ and it might survive longer.

They haven't bought anyone. They have taken over the management of Sriwijaya Air and NAM Air (part of Sriwijaya Air group). I see this move as a desperate attempt to salvage the debt Sriwijaya Air group owes to Garuda (through its MRO, GMF), totalling over $100 million if I remember correctly. They do this to also control 46% or so of the domestic market, in conjunction with the domestic fares hike that's come under heavy criticism. Purchasing SJ group? It remains an option that has yet to be exercised. Sriwijaya flights under GA has reduced by a large amount (some say 60% down)... so this "cooperation" appears to be a "save the debt they owe us and kill them at the same time" strategy.

GA's CASK is down 25% JAN18 to JAN19... lots of idle capacity now... and some fleet types, pilots are flying only 20hrs a month or so... More on the discussons at viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1415713

---
MH? This one's quite a hard one... the domestic market is literally eaten alive with Air Asia and Malindo... who's also competing regionally.

Beyond cost controls and operational optimization... the remaining problem is likely to be the same with Garuda... state ownership...
When losing situational awareness, pray Cumulus Granitus isn't nearby !
 
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TheFlyingDisk
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Thu Apr 04, 2019 4:59 am

MH is not going anywhere. They're only used as a scapegoat by the current goverment to hide their massive incompetence in running the nation. After the election the Malaysian economy went downhill and all these buffoons can do is to blame the previous government. Once the dust settles and the Malaysian public is sated, they'll continue to pump money in to MH.

Also a GA/MH merger will NEVER EVER happen. Malaysia is Indonesia's bête noire (just like how Singapore is Malaysia's bête noire) and so a merger between the two would be incredibly frowned upon in Jakarta.
I FLY KLM+ALASKA+QATAR+MALAYSIA+AIRASIA+MALINDO
 
leftcoast8
Posts: 240
Joined: Wed Aug 03, 2016 12:59 am

Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:50 pm

I think TG's fate is bleak in the short to medium term. Thailand failed an FAA Category 1 audit only a few months ago, even though CAAT knew exactly what they needed to do to regain it. With the political instability in Thailand under the NCPO junta, it doesn't look like CAAT will get it together anytime soon. The EU will probably blacklist Thailand's carriers, it's only a matter of time.

And it's a dreadful comedown for an airline that used to fly directly between YVR/SEA and BKK (DMK).
 
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777Jet
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Re: What is your prediction of future for Garuda, Thai and Malaysia Air?

Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:15 pm

IMHO all three will survive. Politics and saving face will ensure that none of those three SE Asian carriers disappear. Thailand will pass the FAA Cat 1 audit once the Military is no longer the ruling party (but as somebody who visits Thailand several times a year I must say that there has been more stability and less corruption in Thailand since the Military took over and I hope they get to continue).
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