Fargo
Topic Author
Posts: 810
Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:28 am

Could AA surpass 1,000 flights at DFW in the next few years and what is the long term potential of AA at DFW? I know DFW isn’t quite as geographically advantaged as ATL, but it still has the potential to become pretty significant.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:51 am

They'll probably continue expanding to unserved domestic destinations like CRW and CAK as well as leisure oriented destinations. Do they have enough gate space? I know they're receiving some from the Terminal E satellite. If they have enough space and are continuing this growth each year, eventually they'll reach 1000 flights a day.

Whenever the AA/QF JV is approved, they'll probably start adding flights to other cities in the Oceania region like MEL, BNE, and AKL.

DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

Depending on what they do with the AA/LATAM JV, they'll probably expand into SA a good amount but mainly from MIA I'd assume.

With a trend of European destinations added every year, I could see Barcelona and Manchester be added and possibly have Zurich come back.
 
Fargo
Topic Author
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Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:57 am

Ishrion wrote:
They'll probably continue expanding to unserved domestic destinations like CRW and CAK as well as leisure oriented destinations. Do they have enough gate space? I know they're receiving some from the Terminal E satellite. If they have enough space and are continuing this growth each year, eventually they'll reach 1000 flights a day.

Whenever the AA/QF JV is approved, they'll probably start adding flights to other cities in the Oceania region like MEL, BNE, and AKL.

DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

Depending on what they do with the AA/LATAM JV, they'll probably expand into SA a good amount but mainly from MIA I'd assume.

With a trend of European destinations added every year, I could see Barcelona and Manchester be added and possibly have Zurich come back.


I’d love to see some more foreign flag carriers that’s for sure.

I know a lot of the future growth is going to depend on the negotiations between AA and DFW over whether to build Terminal F. Does anyone have an update on this?
 
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LAX772LR
Posts: 12486
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Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 1:58 am

Ishrion wrote:
DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

To burn money.

There's a reason that UA is the only US airline flying nonstop there, and only from its Asian superhub: compared to the likes of HKG/SIN/TYO/etc, yields from USA to TPE are generally trash.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:00 am

LAX772LR wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

To burn money.

There's a reason that UA is the only US airline flying nonstop there, and only from its Asian superhub: compared to the likes of HKG/SIN/TYO/etc, yields from USA to TPE are generally trash.


I didn't specify that AA would actually fly the route because... https://www.anna.aero/2018/03/07/dallas ... -searches/

It just has potential, they may or may not fly it. AA has its connections on their end of the route.
 
Ishrion
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Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:03 am

In terms of expanding the airport for more space, here's some concept from 2014.

Image
 
Fargo
Topic Author
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Joined: Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:00 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:15 am

Ishrion wrote:
In terms of expanding the airport for more space, here's some concept from 2014.

Image


But supposedly since then, AA decided it may not want to proceed with this version Terminal F and so they are negotiating with DFW other options on how to best expand the terminal space.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:19 am

Fargo wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
In terms of expanding the airport for more space, here's some concept from 2014.

Image


But supposedly since then, AA decided it may not want to proceed with this version Terminal F and so they are negotiating with DFW other options on how to best expand the terminal space.


Last I heard they were going for a straight terminal rather than the current style. It worked when the airport first opened but is less convenient now.
 
Bradin
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:12 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:42 am

Ishrion wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
In terms of expanding the airport for more space, here's some concept from 2014.

Image


But supposedly since then, AA decided it may not want to proceed with this version Terminal F and so they are negotiating with DFW other options on how to best expand the terminal space.


Last I heard they were going for a straight terminal rather than the current style. It worked when the airport first opened but is less convenient now.


Straight terminal style?
 
1836Sam
Posts: 471
Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:35 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:46 am

The problem is they can’t afford it due to billions spent on preserving the original terminal design with Terminal D, Skylink, and now the rehabbed terminals. That’s the problem, and that’s why nothing has happened since the merger and the C rehab is delayed indefinitely (or at least it was). They should’ve bit the bullet 20 years ago and designed a large parallel concourse a la DTW on the west side of Intl Pkwy. Now they’re stuck with what? $5 billion of debt before they even begin to build anything else.

Doug Parker is well known to be none too happy about PMAA’s p*ssing away of $3 billion on TRIP.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 2:48 am

Bradin wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
Fargo wrote:

But supposedly since then, AA decided it may not want to proceed with this version Terminal F and so they are negotiating with DFW other options on how to best expand the terminal space.


Last I heard they were going for a straight terminal rather than the current style. It worked when the airport first opened but is less convenient now.


Straight terminal style?


Like ATL or DTW.
 
Ishrion
Posts: 1164
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:17 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:25 am

Fargo wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
They'll probably continue expanding to unserved domestic destinations like CRW and CAK as well as leisure oriented destinations. Do they have enough gate space? I know they're receiving some from the Terminal E satellite. If they have enough space and are continuing this growth each year, eventually they'll reach 1000 flights a day.

Whenever the AA/QF JV is approved, they'll probably start adding flights to other cities in the Oceania region like MEL, BNE, and AKL.

DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

Depending on what they do with the AA/LATAM JV, they'll probably expand into SA a good amount but mainly from MIA I'd assume.

With a trend of European destinations added every year, I could see Barcelona and Manchester be added and possibly have Zurich come back.


I’d love to see some more foreign flag carriers that’s for sure.

I know a lot of the future growth is going to depend on the negotiations between AA and DFW over whether to build Terminal F. Does anyone have an update on this?


In terms of foreign flag carriers, this is purely wishful thinking:

High Chance:

    Finnair adds HEL-DFW.
    Qantas adds more Australian destinations with the approval of the JV.
    Iberia adds MAD-DFW to compliment existing AA service.
    LATAM adds SA service with the approval of the JV.

Medium Chance
    EVA or China Airlines adds TPE-DFW if AA doesn't do it. EVA already runs a bus service from IAH-DFW.
    Turkish adds service as rumored before.
    Some Chinese airline like Hainan adds service.
    Aer Lingus adds DFW. Not as likely, it was rumored before and they're adding them to the AA/BA/IB/AY Transatlantic JV

Low Chance
    China Southern adds DFW from Guangzhou somehow(restricted due to lack of Tier 1 City allocations)
    Cathay Pacific adds HKG-DFW to compliment AA service.
    Copa adds PTY-DFW since AA dropped it.
    Royal Air Maroc adds CMN-DFW with the announcement of joining OW in 2020.
    Air India adds DFW from DEL or BOM

I probably shouldn't be thinking about this because it's not going to happen.
    Air Italy adds MXP-DFW to "rub the salt wound into AA"
    WestJet resumes DFW from a different city(not Calgary).
    KLM returns
    Icelandair returns
    Norwegian adds London-DFW.
 
upperdeckfan
Posts: 928
Joined: Fri Jun 08, 2007 1:59 am

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 10:13 am

Ishrion wrote:
Fargo wrote:
Ishrion wrote:
They'll probably continue expanding to unserved domestic destinations like CRW and CAK as well as leisure oriented destinations. Do they have enough gate space? I know they're receiving some from the Terminal E satellite. If they have enough space and are continuing this growth each year, eventually they'll reach 1000 flights a day.

Whenever the AA/QF JV is approved, they'll probably start adding flights to other cities in the Oceania region like MEL, BNE, and AKL.

DFW-TPE is an unserved route with a lot of potential.

Depending on what they do with the AA/LATAM JV, they'll probably expand into SA a good amount but mainly from MIA I'd assume.

With a trend of European destinations added every year, I could see Barcelona and Manchester be added and possibly have Zurich come back.


I’d love to see some more foreign flag carriers that’s for sure.

I know a lot of the future growth is going to depend on the negotiations between AA and DFW over whether to build Terminal F. Does anyone have an update on this?


In terms of foreign flag carriers, this is purely wishful thinking:

High Chance:

    Finnair adds HEL-DFW.
    Qantas adds more Australian destinations with the approval of the JV.
    Iberia adds MAD-DFW to compliment existing AA service.
    LATAM adds SA service with the approval of the JV.

Medium Chance
    EVA or China Airlines adds TPE-DFW if AA doesn't do it. EVA already runs a bus service from IAH-DFW.
    Turkish adds service as rumored before.
    Some Chinese airline like Hainan adds service.
    Aer Lingus adds DFW. Not as likely, it was rumored before and they're adding them to the AA/BA/IB/AY Transatlantic JV

Low Chance
    China Southern adds DFW from Guangzhou somehow(restricted due to lack of Tier 1 City allocations)
    Cathay Pacific adds HKG-DFW to compliment AA service.
    Copa adds PTY-DFW since AA dropped it.
    Royal Air Maroc adds CMN-DFW with the announcement of joining OW in 2020.
    Air India adds DFW from DEL or BOM

I probably shouldn't be thinking about this because it's not going to happen.
    Air Italy adds MXP-DFW to "rub the salt wound into AA"
    WestJet resumes DFW from a different city(not Calgary).
    KLM returns
    Icelandair returns
    Norwegian adds London-DFW.



Correct me if I'm wrong but DFW-MAD is already - or soon to become - 2x daily on AA's metal. No chance to go to 3x daily.

I also see a good chance of CM as AA dropped PTY.

DFW-CCS will comeback if environment changes in Venezuela anytime soon.
748,744,742,741,772,773,762,763,
764, 789, 732,733,735,737,738,739,
752, 722, 717,74M,DC10,DC9,M82,
M83, M87, M88,310,319,320,321,332,
333, 343, 346,359,388,L1011,CR2,
CR7, CR9,CRK, E175,E190,ATR42,
DSH8, CS1,CS3
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 5816
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: How big will AA at DFW get long term?

Mon Apr 08, 2019 12:43 pm

The OP's question is about AA ops at DFW. A bunch of foreign carriers outside of oneworld is going to diminish that potential, not augment it.

IMHO, the medium-term flight count (and destination count, if not passenger count) is going to hinge very heavily on when & how AA starts upgauging. Something like DFW-CAK isn't going to support a 319 or 220. Not to pick on CAK specifically but I don't see any demand to CAK from DFW that ORD can't fill.

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