crescent
Topic Author
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44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 12:43 pm

Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 12:51 pm

Link? Survey methodology and participant demographics?
 
Jetty
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 12:53 pm

I doubt these results hold true, consumers are generally bad at predicting their own behavior. I definitely agree with the downgrade though: went short on Boeing myself a month ago.
 
ArjenterAvest
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 12:54 pm

A quick google came up with this: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/05/07/bar ... 7-max.html


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c933103
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 12:56 pm

Thing is how many people know their flight is going to be MAX when they book flights? And when they board a MAX flight how many will realize that they are boarding a MAX? (The pilot can announce the aircraft is an 737-8 and 80%+ passengers won't realize that is the Max) And how many will actually give up their ticket and book another flight instead when they discover it? (It is easier said than done.) Also, Boeing still haven't release a fix yet, passenger opinions and perception will probably change as fixes went live pending response from authorities and airlines around the world
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crescent
Topic Author
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:00 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Link? Survey methodology and participant demographics?


It was done by yougov with 1756 North American and European fliers. It's not a public poll; there won't be a link. You would need access to Barclays investment research.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:02 pm

crescent wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Link? Survey methodology and participant demographics?


It was done by yougov with 1756 North American and European fliers. It's not a public poll; there won't be a link. You would need access to Barclays investment research.


I imagine the point is that without those pieces of information, is the 44% a real number to be believed.
 
crescent
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:05 pm

The demographics was said to be a broad mix of age, income, travel frequencies. I imagine the only thing unique from the norms about the survey is including Europeans who may be biased for Airbus against Boeing.
 
deltaffindfw
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:09 pm

And 90% of those people also book flights based on price and schedule and not on the type of plane...
 
boeingguy1
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:09 pm

crescent wrote:
Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.


What they didn't follow up with is how many of those same people can tell an A320 from a 737, let alone a 737-800 from a 737 Max 8.

In the end, 99% of the flying public can't tell what type of plane they are flying on without a safety card or announcement.
"...Gatwick South!? Id rather crash in Brighton!"
 
smokeybandit
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:11 pm

Exactly. THe huge majority of flyers do so based on convenience or cost. Most wouldn't know a CRJ from a 747
 
kalvado
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:16 pm

If company travel departments take notice, they do have the knowledge to follow through. That is high paying business traffic.
If popular booking engines take notice, things will be even more interesting.
 
SFOtoORD
Posts: 1083
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:17 pm

None of this data is actually useful until the grounding orders are lifted across the globe. Some will certainly have strong feelings for the long term, but others will likely forget or not care.
 
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SEPilot
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:19 pm

I would happily fly a MAX tomorrow if I could on any Western airline. I would not on a third world airline, except perhaps PR. After it is fixed I would board it on any airline that I would otherwise fly. Lion Air is not on that list.
The problem with making things foolproof is that fools are so doggone ingenious...Dan Keebler
 
Elementalism
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:20 pm

deltaffindfw wrote:
And 90% of those people also book flights based on price and schedule and not on the type of plane...


99%

Once the fix goes in and the MAX returns to flying. People will move on. 5500 of these birds are set to take to the sky in the next decade. There will be a lot of momentum.

But Boeing has to get it right. There will be a huge spotlight on the MAX for 24-36 months after they start flying again.
 
Jetty
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:21 pm

kalvado wrote:
If popular booking engines take notice, things will be even more interesting.

That would be detrimental to Boeing indeed, and relatively easy to implement for booking engines. If the sentiments about the plane of death remain I'm sure at least some will create an option that allows for excluding the MAX in search results.
 
Avgeek21
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:22 pm

People will forget quickly anyways. I give it 3-6 months after the all clear. And most can’t tell A from B anyways. People look at price when they book, not the airplane type. In any case I’ll just do my PA stating 737 iso 737 MAX. Job done.
Last edited by Avgeek21 on Tue May 07, 2019 1:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Elementalism
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:22 pm

kalvado wrote:
If company travel departments take notice, they do have the knowledge to follow through. That is high paying business traffic.
If popular booking engines take notice, things will be even more interesting.


What manager is going to be ok with one of their subordinates being late to a meeting because of the type of aircraft they wont fly on? Most travel departments are also cost conscious. They dont care about the aircraft type neither. At the end of the day the business needs to make money. The aircraft type their people fly on is a low priority.
 
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william
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:23 pm

If this was true, SWA would be in trouble. Really people, who can tell the difference of a 737-800 vs a 737-8 MAX at the gate?
 
bgm
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:29 pm

And once again many American posters on this board just gloss over the issue. Excuses abound, it'll all be fine etc etc. :sarcastic:

People often compare this to other air disasters where the passengers forget over time. However, most of those were before the 24/7 news, social media etc. I've heard many people, who know nothing about aviation say that "the MAX is a death trap", "no way I'm going on a 737 MAX" etc etc.

Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.
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morrisond
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:30 pm

I was on an Westjet 737-800 just prior to the Grounding. The Emergency Procedure Card in the Seat back said 737-800/MAX

They will just change the Emergency procedures to say Boeing 737-8 instead of MAX - that will fool 99% of People.

I would be surprised if they aren't reprinting them now.
 
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GE90man
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:32 pm

bgm wrote:
And once again many American posters on this board just gloss over the issue. Excuses abound, it'll all be fine etc etc. :sarcastic:

People often compare this to other air disasters where the passengers forget over time. However, most of those were before the 24/7 news, social media etc. I've heard many people, who know nothing about aviation say that "the MAX is a death trap", "no way I'm going on a 737 MAX" etc etc.

Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.


Reality is more like the majority of fliers not being able to tell what aircraft they're even flying on. I'm willing to bet that if you told someone getting on a Boeing 737 of any sort and told them it was an airbus, they wouldn't think twice about it.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:33 pm

morrisond wrote:
I was on an Westjet 737-800 just prior to the Grounding. The Emergency Procedure Card in the Seat back said 737-800/MAX

They will just change the Emergency procedures to say Boeing 737-8 instead of MAX - that will fool 99% of People.

I would be surprised if they aren't reprinting them now.


Agreed. This is a non-issue. Is Max on the airworthiness certificate or is just for marketing purposes?
 
BerenErchamion
Posts: 208
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:35 pm

boeingguy1 wrote:
crescent wrote:
Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.


What they didn't follow up with is how many of those same people can tell an A320 from a 737, let alone a 737-800 from a 737 Max 8.


Do they have to be able to? Literally every time I've booked a flight in the Internet era, there's been a thing right there on the screen saying "Equipment: xxxxx" or something equivalent. Whether you can recognize it by sight doesn't matter when they tell you up front.

Sure, there are equipment switches at the gate, but people are making their purchasing decisions based on what they're told at the time of booking (i.e. what the website tells them their flight will be on).
Last edited by BerenErchamion on Tue May 07, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Antarius
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:36 pm

bgm wrote:
Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.


So much hate that's so unfounded in reality :roll:
2019: SIN HKG NRT DFW IAH HOU CLT LGA JFK SFO SJC EWR SNA EYW MIA BOG LAX ORD DTW OAK PVG BOS DCA IAD ATL LAS BIS CUN PHX OAK SYD CVG PHL MAD ORY CDG SLC SJU BQN DEN DOH BLR MAA KTM YYZ MEX
 
Bricktop
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:36 pm

deltaffindfw wrote:
And 90% of those people also book flights based on price and schedule and not on the type of plane...

That low? I have made TATL plans around flying the A359 and B744 and B767, but most of the time domestically I don't care as to the frame. And I am an #avgeek. Ma and Pa Kettle wouldn't know an A388 from a CRJ2.
 
IWMBH
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:37 pm

“Will never fly the MAX again”
*sees that tickets on the MAX are 10% cheaper*
“Aah the MAX is fine, Boeing knows what it’s doing”
 
Bricktop
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:45 pm

bgm wrote:
And once again many American posters on this board just gloss over the issue. Excuses abound, it'll all be fine etc etc. :sarcastic:

People often compare this to other air disasters where the passengers forget over time. However, most of those were before the 24/7 news, social media etc. I've heard many people, who know nothing about aviation say that "the MAX is a death trap", "no way I'm going on a 737 MAX" etc etc.

Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.

Sure, anyone who disagrees is burying their head in the sand. Or is a stupid American Boeing fanboy. :roll: People care about price and schedule. If your "many people" is more than 5% I would be shocked. And in a year, I bet it's near to zero. With the 24/7 news and social media, attention spans have also greatly shortened. Yesterday's news fades fast these days.
 
Etheereal
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:50 pm

If FR swapped all their planes immediately into Max8 or 9, you can bet Europeans will still fly them, regardless.

IWMBH wrote:
“Will never fly the MAX again”
*sees that tickets on the MAX are 10% cheaper*
“Aah the MAX is fine, Boeing knows what it’s doing”

/thread
Last edited by Etheereal on Tue May 07, 2019 1:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
JetBuddy wrote:
"737 slides off the runway" is the new "Florida man"..

:lol:
 
WayexTDI
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:50 pm

william wrote:
If this was true, SWA would be in trouble. Really people, who can tell the difference of a 737-800 vs a 737-8 MAX at the gate?

99.99% of the flying public wouldn't be able to tell the difference.
 
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DL747400
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:51 pm

Hmmm ..... How long before 737 MAX operators begin quietly removing all MAX references from the exteriors of their aircraft?
From First to Worst: The history of Airliners.net.

All posts reflect my opinions, not those of my employer or any other company.
 
YouGeeElWhy
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:52 pm

Do not underestimate FEAR. We (Americans) live in the post-truth era, where conspiracy/fringe topics are spoken about like they are science. Social media will spread fear and people will become "knowledgable" about what planes they are flying on and they will reject the MAX.

Personally, I will give it a couple of years before getting back on a MAX. What Boeing did are the kinds of mistakes that put companies out of busniess and I have little faith that they can "fix" this issue now. It does not matter "western" vs "3rd world" if the plane is trying to kill everyone then I will take a pass.
 
mrbots
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:54 pm

Once the media moves on and stops shoving everything happening anywhere in the world related to Boeing down everyone's throats the general public will forget and move on. Even websites that say "Equipment: XXXX" don't say "Max" they'll say "73M" or "3M8" or similar. I've made it a point to ask almost someone every flight I fly on "what kind of plane is this?" Very few can actually answer the question. Haven't there also been multiple articles about people freaking out because the safety cards at UA, AA, and WN say 737-800/Max after the grounding thinking they're actually on a Max? You could probably sneak the same safety card onto a CRJ and get the same reaction.
 
Babyshark
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 1:54 pm

Takes probably 1 employee at a major company to complain and the travel department comes down with no Max.
 
Elementalism
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:01 pm

bgm wrote:
And once again many American posters on this board just gloss over the issue. Excuses abound, it'll all be fine etc etc. :sarcastic:

People often compare this to other air disasters where the passengers forget over time. However, most of those were before the 24/7 news, social media etc. I've heard many people, who know nothing about aviation say that "the MAX is a death trap", "no way I'm going on a 737 MAX" etc etc.

Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.


The 24 hour news cycle is exactly why people will move on. Once the MAX starts flying again and is safe. The 24 hour news cycle moves onto the next crisis and people do as well.
 
Babyshark
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:01 pm

crescent wrote:
Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.


Right after the grounding is lifted I would think people have the right to say, so the government and Boeing says this is safe... but didn't they say it was safe the first time and it crashed?

I'd love to see, what would convince you to fly on the Max again? FAA approval and Boeing saying it's safe would only carry weight in Seattle and airliners.net I bet.
 
SPREE34
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:02 pm

IWMBH wrote:
“Will never fly the MAX again”
*sees that tickets on the MAX are 10% cheaper*
“Aah the MAX is fine, Boeing knows what it’s doing”


That ^^^^^ sums it it perfectly, and probably most accurately.
I don't understand everything I don't know about this.
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:02 pm

bgm wrote:
And once again many American posters on this board just gloss over the issue. Excuses abound, it'll all be fine etc etc. :sarcastic:

People often compare this to other air disasters where the passengers forget over time. However, most of those were before the 24/7 news, social media etc. I've heard many people, who know nothing about aviation say that "the MAX is a death trap", "no way I'm going on a 737 MAX" etc etc.

Your pathetic attempt to gloss over peoples' perceptions of this is exactly the same as Boeing's tone-deafness in admitting they screwed up. Reality is going to come and bite you in the ass. Hard.


What vitriol. I imagine you’ll be doing everything in your power to badmouth the MAX when it takes to the skies again. Sorry if not everyone cowers in fear.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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JetBuddy
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:02 pm

People question this survey. But then they agree that "99% of the population doesn't know what type of airplane they're flying on" - without any data backing that up.

I agree that most people won't even care what aircraft they're on, which is what the survey says.

But I do believe more than 1% can tell the difference between an A320 and a 737. Even my 61 year old mother knows the difference. Maybe it's different in populations that don't fly that much, but here in Norway people do know how to distinguish the types.

The ability to tell the difference between a 737NG and a 737MAX however would be difficult for most people.
Last edited by JetBuddy on Tue May 07, 2019 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Babyshark
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:03 pm

Elementalism wrote:

The 24 hour news cycle is exactly why people will move on. Once the MAX starts flying again and is safe. The 24 hour news cycle moves onto the next crisis and people do as well.


So some people will... but I argue your frequent fliers and the HVCs will not have a short term memory about it.
 
Elementalism
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:04 pm

Babyshark wrote:
Elementalism wrote:

The 24 hour news cycle is exactly why people will move on. Once the MAX starts flying again and is safe. The 24 hour news cycle moves onto the next crisis and people do as well.


So some people will... but I argue your frequent fliers and the HVCs will not have a short term memory about it.


They will move on as well. How did the A320 become so successful after video was blasted across the globe of a demonstration gone horribly wrong?
 
PlanesNTrains
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:07 pm

Babyshark wrote:
crescent wrote:
Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.


Right after the grounding is lifted I would think people have the right to say, so the government and Boeing says this is safe... but didn't they say it was safe the first time and it crashed?

I'd love to see, what would convince you to fly on the Max again? FAA approval and Boeing saying it's safe would only carry weight in Seattle and airliners.net I bet.


I’d fly on it. Why not? I flew on DC10’s and lived to tell about it. People flew on the Concorde after a piece of metal brought it down.

One thing to keep in mind is that Boeing and the airlines are vested in moving on from this dark point. Just like our friend BGM is pushing one narrative, they’ll be pushing another. In the middle may be some great deals for the traveling public.
-Dave


MAX’d out on MAX threads. If you are starting a thread, and it’s about the MAX - stop. There’s already a thread that covers it.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:08 pm

william wrote:
If this was true, SWA would be in trouble.

Not really. Only about half of all Americans for in a given year. If 60% will fly on one type of plane that Southeast had in greater numbers than other airlines, they will do quite well. :D

It's worthless focusing on poll results without access to methodology.
Last edited by NameOmitted on Tue May 07, 2019 2:10 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
seat1a
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:08 pm

Inevitably, there will be those YouTube videos showing people getting up and leaving the cabin when they find out it's a MAX. I can see it now.
 
kalvado
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:09 pm

IWMBH wrote:
“Will never fly the MAX again”
*sees that tickets on the MAX are 10% cheaper*
“Aah the MAX is fine, Boeing knows what it’s doing”

Yes of course. But with airlines' profit margin this can easy mean a difference between quarter in black. Or in red.
 
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Momo1435
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:11 pm

Not too surprising with all the media attention on the MAX. It will be much more interesting to see how the results of this poll will change if it's repeated a couple times this coming months. Will the fear stik?
 
BerenErchamion
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:13 pm

mrbots wrote:
Even websites that say "Equipment: XXXX" don't say "Max" they'll say "73M" or "3M8" or similar


I was fairly certain that's not true at all, so I did some searches with several airlines and city pairs that I fly semi-regularly to be sure and sure enough, that's not true at all.

I can provide screenshots if you like.
 
kalvado
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:21 pm

BerenErchamion wrote:
mrbots wrote:
Even websites that say "Equipment: XXXX" don't say "Max" they'll say "73M" or "3M8" or similar


I was fairly certain that's not true at all, so I did some searches with several airlines and city pairs that I fly semi-regularly to be sure and sure enough, that's not true at all.

I can provide screenshots if you like.

Just tell which booking engines did you check. Maybe interesting to compare different ones
 
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InsideMan
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:21 pm

The MAX has rather prominent wingtips, which makes it very easy to identify against any other aircraft type. You think people will not know? Just takes a few examples of people refusing to board to put the anxiety into others too. Managers might by angry if someone arrives, but they prefer to pay for a hotel and arrival a day early rather than the person not arriving at all. Yes, 90% of people book based on price, but I will avoid the MAX wherever I can, at the very least for the forseeable future until the safety record is on par with A320 and 737NG
 
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enilria
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Re: 44% say wont take MAX for a year?

Tue May 07, 2019 2:24 pm

crescent wrote:
Barclays is out with a research note downgrading Boeing. They cite a survey with these results:

Willingness to fly on MAX After Grounding is Lifted:
19% Immediately
20% After a Few Months
23% After a Year or More
21% Never
17% Don't Know.

I have a hard time believing this. I think the results would be far different if the survey done immediately after a lifting.

Will it be flying in a year?

It's gonna get rebranded. What could they call it?

The Boeing Harbinger
The Boeing Zip
The Boeing Mighty
Last edited by enilria on Tue May 07, 2019 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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