UA857
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Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 5:32 pm

Will UA, DL, and AA ever return to the Middle East?
 
Ishrion
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 5:37 pm

Give it some decades.
 
fly4ever78
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 5:46 pm

What is your definition of "Middle East"?
 
x1234
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:00 pm

Only chance is AA going back to Tel Aviv (TLV) but general Middle East!? Probably not due to geopolitics.
 
jasoncrh
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:00 pm

Israel is considered by some to be the Middle East. United and Delta are there.
 
bfitzflyer
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:01 pm

DL and UA already fly to TLV which geographically would be middle east. To Arabic speaking countries, if there is money to be made they will be back.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:04 pm

It's pretty interesting to me that relatively recently UA had a robust Middle East network. I know IAD-KWI and DXB were both nonstop, and then each flight continued onto BAH and DOH at one point.
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FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:12 pm

looking at it objectively, as mentioned, UA & DL serve what is far and away the top premium market in the middle east - Tel Aviv* . despite having no "feed" from that side (mandatory mention, per a.net protocol), TLV is a big time premium market, and will be at the top for the region for the forseeable future.

In an alternative universe, where religious/political didn't fracture the region, one could imagine TLV as being the mideast gateway (relative to US), given its O/D and geography.
Back to reality - there's no sound economic reason for US3 to fly to Cairo, Islamabad, Amman, Riyadh, Baghdad, etc. Risk has to be part of the equation, and the return too low. They have partners in Europe who cover those destination at lower risk and cost.


* spare the lectures on how UAE/DOH might be more "premium" than TLV. different thing.
Last edited by FlyHappy on Sun May 19, 2019 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:14 pm

USAirALB wrote:
It's pretty interesting to me that relatively recently UA had a robust Middle East network. I know IAD-KWI and DXB were both nonstop, and then each flight continued onto BAH and DOH at one point.


I think US govt/military contracts had some bearing. Those things change fast as the underlying politics shift.
 
YYZORD
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:24 pm

AC serves YYZ-DXB 5X weekly but that has to do with them controlling how much EK flies to Canada. Here it seems like the US is all open skies for middle eastern carriers I assume which is why US carriers can't compete like AC.
 
khowaga
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:29 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
It's pretty interesting to me that relatively recently UA had a robust Middle East network. I know IAD-KWI and DXB were both nonstop, and then each flight continued onto BAH and DOH at one point.


I think US govt/military contracts had some bearing. Those things change fast as the underlying politics shift.


They did. When B6/EK won the US government contract with their codeshare arrangement, DL and UA both pulled out. The ME3 with their subsidies (I know, theoretically they don’t exist, but...come on) can also undercut foreign carriers on service into the UAE and Qatar.

Outside the Gulf, CAI would be the most logical destination for direct service to the US—TW served it for over 50 years, and CO had announced EWR-CAI to begin in May 2011—but the political situation since the revolution in January 2011 has put a damper on tourism and business travel to Egypt.

Destinations like BEY and AMM are popular, but they’re heavy on VFR traffic so leaving them to European codeshare partners makes a lot of sense.
 
khowaga
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:37 pm

FlyHappy wrote:
In an alternative universe, where religious/political didn't fracture the region, one could imagine TLV as being the mideast gateway (relative to US), given its O/D and geography.


In such an alternate universe, THR would give TLV some competition :)
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:39 pm

YYZORD wrote:
AC serves YYZ-DXB 5X weekly but that has to do with them controlling how much EK flies to Canada. Here it seems like the US is all open skies for middle eastern carriers I assume which is why US carriers can't compete like AC.


certainly the greater numbers of large US cities (vs max 3 Canadian one of any long haul interest), along with open skies, makes things more challenging.
still - I don't think this is so much about ME3 (dispute or not), as it is about tangible, non-$ risk vs low reward.
In most cases, I castigate US3 for their reluctance to fly non-cash cow routes, but in this case, I really do give them a pass. Their EU partners are simply better positioned, just safer for everyone, including passengers.
 
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LH748
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:43 pm

As long as destinations like DXB, BEY, CAI, KWI etc can be served in a codeshare agreement with BA, AF/KL and LH there's absolutely no reason to operate there. For some destinations safety issues might also be a matter but mostly it'll be economic reasons why a non-stop service to any destination there is not lucrative.
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BA
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:44 pm

khowaga wrote:
Destinations like BEY and AMM are popular, but they’re heavy on VFR traffic so leaving them to European codeshare partners makes a lot of sense.


:checkmark:

Tons of U.S. and Canadian passport holders when I flew BEY-CDG on MEA recently, making onward connections on AF and DL.

Also at LHR, MEA flies out of Terminal 3 instead of Terminal 4 where all other SkyTeam partners are (except DL), which better facilitates connections on DL/VS which are out of Terminal 3.
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 6:47 pm

khowaga wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
In an alternative universe, where religious/political didn't fracture the region, one could imagine TLV as being the mideast gateway (relative to US), given its O/D and geography.


In such an alternate universe, THR would give TLV some competition :)


You are right.
Alternate universe, where mid east looks more like... say the EU or even ASEAN... Iran is a high income, prosperous globally connected society, with a massive tech and manufacturing center, along with high value extractive industry; perhaps THE global aviation connector (as opposed to UAE). Big league premium market.

Unfortunately, they are relegated to fabricating parts to keep machinery running, and their emigrants identifying as "Persian".
It is a shame.
 
YYZORD
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 10:22 pm

AC and EK flying to YYZ is not only Canadian pax, many transit to the United States which is why it works out. AC has the largest US network as an international carrier and EK has codeshare with WS which serve some US destinations like BNA, TPA, PHX, LAS, etc.

FlyHappy wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
AC serves YYZ-DXB 5X weekly but that has to do with them controlling how much EK flies to Canada. Here it seems like the US is all open skies for middle eastern carriers I assume which is why US carriers can't compete like AC.


certainly the greater numbers of large US cities (vs max 3 Canadian one of any long haul interest), along with open skies, makes things more challenging.
still - I don't think this is so much about ME3 (dispute or not), as it is about tangible, non-$ risk vs low reward.
In most cases, I castigate US3 for their reluctance to fly non-cash cow routes, but in this case, I really do give them a pass. Their EU partners are simply better positioned, just safer for everyone, including passengers.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 10:28 pm

YYZORD wrote:
AC and EK flying to YYZ is not only Canadian pax, many transit to the United States which is why it works out. AC has the largest US network as an international carrier and EK has codeshare with WS which serve some US destinations like BNA, TPA, PHX, LAS, etc.

FlyHappy wrote:
YYZORD wrote:
AC serves YYZ-DXB 5X weekly but that has to do with them controlling how much EK flies to Canada. Here it seems like the US is all open skies for middle eastern carriers I assume which is why US carriers can't compete like AC.


certainly the greater numbers of large US cities (vs max 3 Canadian one of any long haul interest), along with open skies, makes things more challenging.
still - I don't think this is so much about ME3 (dispute or not), as it is about tangible, non-$ risk vs low reward.
In most cases, I castigate US3 for their reluctance to fly non-cash cow routes, but in this case, I really do give them a pass. Their EU partners are simply better positioned, just safer for everyone, including passengers.


for sure. And as we all know, transiting Canada to US is alot more painless than the reverse ;)
still, as you said capacity control via no Open Skies does play a factor.

on a slightly related note - I was examining Delta's destination list, and positively astounded at just how few Canadian cities they serve year round; pretty lame, especially considering their nearby northern hubs.
 
cedarjet
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 10:55 pm

It’s not just difficult geopolitics that precludes nonstop service, the market isn’t that big especially given the high fuel and crew and utilisation cost of flying so far, I mean I bet Ukraine has a bigger economy that Jordan or even Egypt but the US3 don’t fly to Kiev either.

For me the only routes that would fly if politics wasn’t an obstacle are Montreal to Beirut and Los Angeles to Tehran. Both would be heavy hitters. To Lebanon you’d have a high density 77W on AC and at least one MEA A330 daily; and LA to Tehran would ideally be an Iran Air 777-300ER and in a perfect world also an AA 77W too.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
FlyKBHM
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 11:27 pm

cedarjet wrote:
It’s not just difficult geopolitics that precludes nonstop service, the market isn’t that big especially given the high fuel and crew and utilisation cost of flying so far, I mean I bet Ukraine has a bigger economy that Jordan or even Egypt but the US3 don’t fly to Kiev either.

For me the only routes that would fly if politics wasn’t an obstacle are Montreal to Beirut and Los Angeles to Tehran. Both would be heavy hitters. To Lebanon you’d have a high density 77W on AC and at least one MEA A330 daily; and LA to Tehran would ideally be an Iran Air 777-300ER and in a perfect world also an AA 77W too.


I played around the Great Circle Mapper (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=LAX-THR-OR ... TW-THR-EWR) and as others have mentioned, other than LAX, the big US3 would be flying over eastern Europe on their way to Tehran. Selecting Riyadh (RUH) instead pushes the routes towards even easier western European partner hub connections.

The opportunity costs of flying 6,500 mile flights just isn't worth it right now.

I would be VERY curious what a Los Angeles to Tehran flight could do. While the political situation has been fraught since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the cultural and VFR relations between the countries are tremendous. The Westwood neighborhood around the University of California, Los Angeles has it's own Little Tehran.
 
FlyHappy
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Sun May 19, 2019 11:34 pm

FlyKBHM wrote:
The opportunity costs of flying 6,500 mile flights just isn't worth it right now.

I would be VERY curious what a Los Angeles to Tehran flight could do. While the political situation has been fraught since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the cultural and VFR relations between the countries are tremendous. The Westwood neighborhood around the University of California, Los Angeles has it's own Little Tehran.


I think you answered your own question, already. LAX-Tehran is same distance as LAX-SYD, and add the distinct negative of Russia overflight. Doesn't seem tenable, even with warm political relations. NYC-Tehran seems much more practical, and can avoid Russian airspace, if needed.
 
bhxalex
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 2:04 am

Highly unlikely aslong as EK, TK, QR & to a lesser extent EY, still serve the major American airports with the current open skies agreement.

But IAH-KWI/BAH on a UA 789 wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility I feel.
 
sohanb82
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 2:13 am

bhxalex wrote:
But IAH-KWI/BAH on a UA 789 wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility I feel.


I doubt it right now. When the flight was operated from Dulles, loads were abysmal, and while they might be able to fill more of the plane from IAH, I bet that LH serves the market well and the frame can be used better elsewhere. Also, current management doesn't seem to be so keen on tags, many of them ended after the merger.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 5:51 am

khowaga wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:
USAirALB wrote:
It's pretty interesting to me that relatively recently UA had a robust Middle East network. I know IAD-KWI and DXB were both nonstop, and then each flight continued onto BAH and DOH at one point.


I think US govt/military contracts had some bearing. Those things change fast as the underlying politics shift.


They did. When B6/EK won the US government contract with their codeshare arrangement, DL and UA both pulled out. The ME3 with their subsidies (I know, theoretically they don’t exist, but...come on) can also undercut foreign carriers on service into the UAE and Qatar.

Outside the Gulf, CAI would be the most logical destination for direct service to the US—TW served it for over 50 years, and CO had announced EWR-CAI to begin in May 2011—but the political situation since the revolution in January 2011 has put a damper on tourism and business travel to Egypt.

Destinations like BEY and AMM are popular, but they’re heavy on VFR traffic so leaving them to European codeshare partners makes a lot of sense.

The hijack to Beruit ended that.
Just too much potential liability in serving any of those cities now. The same applies to much of Africa, as well.
 
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777222LR
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 6:00 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
khowaga wrote:
FlyHappy wrote:

I think US govt/military contracts had some bearing. Those things change fast as the underlying politics shift.


They did. When B6/EK won the US government contract with their codeshare arrangement, DL and UA both pulled out. The ME3 with their subsidies (I know, theoretically they don’t exist, but...come on) can also undercut foreign carriers on service into the UAE and Qatar.

Outside the Gulf, CAI would be the most logical destination for direct service to the US—TW served it for over 50 years, and CO had announced EWR-CAI to begin in May 2011—but the political situation since the revolution in January 2011 has put a damper on tourism and business travel to Egypt.

Destinations like BEY and AMM are popular, but they’re heavy on VFR traffic so leaving them to European codeshare partners makes a lot of sense.

The hijack to Beruit ended that.
Just too much potential liability in serving any of those cities now. The same applies to much of Africa, as well.



I don't think a hijacking that occurred almost 35 years ago really means anything about flying to the Middle East or Africa. United once flew to Lagos and I believe Accra? I think Delta flys or did fly to Accra as well.

I think it's purely Economics. United is starting Cape Town service soon. I do wonder if the US 3 can compete with the Middle East 3 on the route. The Middle East 3's product is far superior. I'm actually writing this from Cape Town and I'm about to go to the airport to come back to the US on Qatar in their business product, skipping Delta via JNB and South African Airways altogether.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 6:20 am

One of the reasons the US carriers pulled out of the Middle East is the fact that they all have European partner airlines serving the Middle East for them.

Before this was the case, each airline had to serve each destination on it's own metal. For far away destinations with limited demand like the Middle East this was hardly profitable. And on the way from the USA to the Middle East you're overflying Europe. Then they set up partnerships with European airlines. Why overfly your partners?

You can still book any Middle East destination on Delta, only Delta will take you as far as Amsterdam or Paris. From there on it's Air France-KLM taking you further. This is the most efficient way of serving the Middle East.
 
bhxalex
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 9:13 am

sohanb82 wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
But IAH-KWI/BAH on a UA 789 wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility I feel.


I doubt it right now. When the flight was operated from Dulles, loads were abysmal, and while they might be able to fill more of the plane from IAH, I bet that LH serves the market well and the frame can be used better elsewhere. Also, current management doesn't seem to be so keen on tags, many of them ended after the merger.


It would be a long shot, but neither KWI or BAH have a non stop IAH service. So if such a service were to exist maybe it would take a lot of the premium traffic away from LH, BA, EK, EY, TK etc as non stop is normally preferable. But I think KU with the 359 or GF with the 789 would open one of these before UA.
 
khowaga
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Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 11:22 am

FlyingElvii wrote:
khowaga wrote:
Outside the Gulf, CAI would be the most logical destination for direct service to the US—TW served it for over 50 years, and CO had announced EWR-CAI to begin in May 2011—but the political situation since the revolution in January 2011 has put a damper on tourism and business travel to Egypt.


The hijack to Beruit ended that.
Just too much potential liability in serving any of those cities now. The same applies to much of Africa, as well.


No, it didn’t.

TW 847 was hijacked out of ATH, not CAI. (The flight originated in CAI, but the hijackers boarded in ATH.) The fact that the plane was sent to BEY had more to do with Lebanon’s 15 year civil war than anything else. There wasn’t much stable traffic of any kind into BEY between 1975 and 1990.

TW served CAI, and from the early 90s RUH, until the AA takeover in 2001. TLV ended a bit earlier—we all know that story.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 11:37 am

FlyHappy wrote:
I think you answered your own question, already. LAX-Tehran is same distance as LAX-SYD, and add the distinct negative of Russia overflight. Doesn't seem tenable, even with warm political relations. NYC-Tehran seems much more practical, and can avoid Russian airspace, if needed.


Nope. LAX is THE U.S.-Iran market. Warm U.S.-Iran relations would make it a mint. Don't hold your breath.
 
khowaga
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 1:39 pm

bhxalex wrote:
sohanb82 wrote:
bhxalex wrote:
But IAH-KWI/BAH on a UA 789 wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility I feel.


I doubt it right now. When the flight was operated from Dulles, loads were abysmal, and while they might be able to fill more of the plane from IAH, I bet that LH serves the market well and the frame can be used better elsewhere. Also, current management doesn't seem to be so keen on tags, many of them ended after the merger.


It would be a long shot, but neither KWI or BAH have a non stop IAH service. So if such a service were to exist maybe it would take a lot of the premium traffic away from LH, BA, EK, EY, TK etc as non stop is normally preferable. But I think KU with the 359 or GF with the 789 would open one of these before UA.


No, but neither KU or GF have the premium service of QR, EK or EY up front. KWI and BAH are very small markets, and neither KU or GF has built up the massive connecting operation that the other ME3 have, so it would be almost entirely O&D, and the oil operation isn’t enough to make that happen.

The UA service into the Gulf was based on having a US government contract to fill the back of the plane—that’s why it was out of IAD. Once that went to another carrier they left.
 
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United787
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 2:28 pm

khowaga wrote:
The UA service into the Gulf was based on having a US government contract to fill the back of the plane—that’s why it was out of IAD. Once that went to another carrier they left.


:checkmark:

My wife flew on UA's flights to the Gulf numerous times while military operations were going strong in Iraq (she wasn't there for that reason). When our involvement in Iraq wound down, so did these flights.

But, if Trump starts a war in Iran, we will probably get the UA and DL flights back, not that I am encouraging that...
 
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spinotter
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 3:08 pm

fly4ever78 wrote:
What is your definition of "Middle East"?


What used to be called, more accurately, the Near East - everything between but not including Greece and Afghanistan, Libya and Pakistan, all of the Arabian peninsula.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 5:18 pm

Los Angeles to Tehran is the most glaringly obvious route I can think of.
 
behramjee
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 5:21 pm

Those of you proposing the US3 fly to CAI and BEY need to realize that majority of the demand bound to these 2 cities is between June-Sep. They cannot be sustained on a commercial basis year round.

The only two Middle East destinations that can be sustained year round are TLV and DXB. The latter did well for the US carriers when wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were on going due to the high yielding Fly America Act.

Having said that, my personal opinion is that the best chance that a US carrier currently has outside of TLV, is UA operating IAD-DXB nonstop using its B789s due to high premium p2p market demand + due to IADs location they can feed the rest of USA/CAN comfortably without having to backtrack.
 
behramjee
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 5:25 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
Los Angeles to Tehran is the most glaringly obvious route I can think of.


Yes to the naked eye it is but FYI the facts show that last year, Toronto-Tehran was the largest North America bound market segment out of Tehran. In fact the demand for YYZ-IKA was double than that of LAX-IKA and even higher than FRA/LHR/MUC-IKA !
 
khowaga
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 10:36 pm

spinotter wrote:
fly4ever78 wrote:
What is your definition of "Middle East"?


What used to be called, more accurately, the Near East - everything between but not including Greece and Afghanistan, Libya and Pakistan, all of the Arabian peninsula.


Hi! Middle East historian here.

“Near East” and “Middle East” are both foreign terms for the region. Near East is a Eurocentric term that came out of British intelligence in the 19th century, Middle East is an Amero-centric term coined in the 1940s because someone in the OSS (the precursor of the CIA) realized that from the US perspective ‘near east’ would actually refer to Europe.

The geographically accurate designation would be Southwest Asia and North Africa. The biggest issue with that is that a lot of people in the subregion that would geographically be called Southwest Asia (for example: Israelis, Lebanese, Saudi) wouldn’t identify themselves as being from Asia.

Hence, there are so many definitions of the Middle East, depending on who you talk to and what your criteria are.

The most common is the definition spinotter gave: the Levant (Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Israel, & Palestinian territories), the Arabian Peninsula, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran.

Others include nothing west of Egypt; some include Afghanistan and Pakistan (although IMO for historic and socio-cultural reasons Pakistan and India should be grouped together).

The US Department of Education, which funds intensive language study abroad, includes everything going west as far as Morocco (which they kind of have to these days because if one is studying Arabic, your options right now are pretty much Morocco, Jordan, and Oman).

All of which is a long winded way of saying the region can be defined however you want.

For purposes of this conversation spinotter’s definition is probably the most useful, as the US-to-North Africa market is probably served as well as it’s going to be with RAM from various markets to Casablanca.

There’s seasonal service between YUL and Algiers and Tunis because there’s a large immigrant community from Francophone North Africa in Quebec, but there’s pretty much no market from the US to either. And no one’s going to Libya right now (well, not on commercial flights anyway).
 
khowaga
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Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 10:40 pm

behramjee wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Los Angeles to Tehran is the most glaringly obvious route I can think of.


Yes to the naked eye it is but FYI the facts show that last year, Toronto-Tehran was the largest North America bound market segment out of Tehran. In fact the demand for YYZ-IKA was double than that of LAX-IKA and even higher than FRA/LHR/MUC-IKA !


Bear in mind that the sanctions regime can make it difficult to purchase or travel on a single ticket from the US to Iran. A lot of people purchase two: one from the US to an intermediate point, and a second from there into Iran. That may be skewing the results.
 
sonicruiser
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Mon May 20, 2019 11:04 pm

behramjee wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
Los Angeles to Tehran is the most glaringly obvious route I can think of.


Yes to the naked eye it is but FYI the facts show that last year, Toronto-Tehran was the largest North America bound market segment out of Tehran. In fact the demand for YYZ-IKA was double than that of LAX-IKA and even higher than FRA/LHR/MUC-IKA !


I'd guess Toronto's Iranian community is more Tehran centric, while Los Angeles' Iranian community might have a more diverse mix including those from Esfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tabriz etc. who would opt for Turkish or Qatar that bypass Tehran and go straight to the secondary Iranian cities. Just a guess, but it would explain why LA has a lower Tehran bound segment but a waaaay larger Iranian population. Iran is a massive country so it's not like you could just drive 1-2 hours from Tehran to those cities, hence why people would prefer to connect straight to those cities if possible. Tabriz is at least 7 hours from Tehran by car, and Mashhad and Shiraz are easily a good 10 hours each.
 
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stl07
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:05 am

"European carriers this, European carriers that" Nobody is going to stop in Europe going to Amman when they can do it nonstop from the US.
The real reason the US3 don't fly to the middle east is because they either a) overfly the region like UA and soon DL or b) have partners that fly there directly from the US like AA with RJ, and the rest of the unmet demand can be fulfilled with euro connections thus making flights to the middle east on US3 metal unnecessary
Interesting how every thread is spammed with "bring back paid membership, there are too many spammers"
 
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DL757NYC
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:11 am

UA857 wrote:
Will UA, DL, and AA ever return to the Middle East?


Don’t hold your breath. It’s way to dangerous
 
B1168
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:26 am

If you guys are talking about the Pan-Muslim MENA, then I won’t rule out CMN seeing a few weekly from American with RAM codeshare. Else...... not coming anytime soon.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:29 am

If DL had 787-8, I could see the following routes:

ATL-RUH
ATL-IST

JFK-CAI (resumption)
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
klm617
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:35 am

DTW-BGW and DTW-BEY are givens as soon asthe security restrictions are removed and flights are allowed between the Lebanon, Iraq and the US.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
klm617
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:39 am

behramjee wrote:
Those of you proposing the US3 fly to CAI and BEY need to realize that majority of the demand bound to these 2 cities is between June-Sep. They cannot be sustained on a commercial basis year round.

The only two Middle East destinations that can be sustained year round are TLV and DXB. The latter did well for the US carriers when wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were on going due to the high yielding Fly America Act.

Having said that, my personal opinion is that the best chance that a US carrier currently has outside of TLV, is UA operating IAD-DXB nonstop using its B789s due to high premium p2p market demand + due to IADs location they can feed the rest of USA/CAN comfortably without having to backtrack.


Why can't BEY-USA be sustained year round before restrictions were place on BEY-USA traffic MEA operated a 747 on the route year round and now Air Frances carries the transfer passenger onward from Paris to the destinations in North America that MEA can not access.
the truth does matter, guys. too bad it's often quite subjective. the truth is beyond the mere facts and figures. it's beyond good and bad, right and wrong...
 
n2dru
Posts: 135
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 2:29 am

klm617 wrote:
DTW-BGW and DTW-BEY are givens as soon asthe security restrictions are removed and flights are allowed between the Lebanon, Iraq and the US.


Who would fly these routes?
 
rjmf22
Posts: 120
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 4:09 am

UA probably has the highest frequency Middle eastern route system right now. Even though they only fly to one city (TLV,) they fly to TLV from three of their hubs, and two of those flights are twice daily if i'm correct (SFO, EWR, and now IAD.) In the past, as stated above, they have served DXB, DOH, BAH, and KWI from Washington Dulles, which presumably was mostly political traffic.

To REALLY answer the question, the answer is not anytime soon, or maybe even never. Qatar, Emirates, and Etihad serve just about every route to the US that is profitable, and some of these flights operate more than once daily. The only flight I could potentially see come to life, is Delta restarting Atlanta-Dubai, as Emirates does not serve this route.
United Airlines
 
winginit
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Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 1:39 pm

klm617 wrote:
DTW-BGW and DTW-BEY are givens as soon asthe security restrictions are removed and flights are allowed between the Lebanon, Iraq and the US.


And which magical airline with the appropriate equipment would fly those now?

Given the title of the thread is whether UA, DL, or AA will ever return to the Middle East, I can only assume your thought within the above comment is that DL would fly BGW or BEY, which is of course absurd. If you're thinking some other airline would serve BGW or BEY from DTW, that would be an off topic comment.
 
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spinotter
Posts: 519
Joined: Wed May 27, 2015 1:37 am

Re: Will UA, DL and AA ever return to the Middle East?

Tue May 21, 2019 4:52 pm

n2dru wrote:
klm617 wrote:
DTW-BGW and DTW-BEY are givens as soon asthe security restrictions are removed and flights are allowed between the Lebanon, Iraq and the US.


Who would fly these routes?


I would love to see Delta in Baghdad - nonstop DTW-BGW or ATL-BGW - talk about an exotic route from their Monroe, Louisiana origins. But I have a question. On the Dutch Wikipedia page about the Baghdad airport, one reads that the IATA code for the Baghdad airport is still SDA (Saddam Hossein Airport), but that some airlines use the code BGW. Can that be true? Can different airlines use different IATA codes?

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