Fargo
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Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:06 pm

With AA building up DFW to 900+ flights, the surging Texas population/economy and the construction/renovation of Terminals F and C looming, AA at DFW will likely surpass DL at ATL in total number of flights. Nonetheless, ATL will still have a large lead in pax and ASM.

Could DFW close the gap in total pax/ASM over the next decade or two as ATL is becoming landlocked while DFW still has ample room for expansion?
 
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compensateme
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:15 pm

Isn't it a given? With 24 new gates and a thriving Dallas economy that shows no signs of slowing, I'd bet lunch at Luby's that DFW will surpass ATL within the next 10 years, ending ATL's 20+ years and counting at the top! And that's not even considering DAL!

I bet DL really, really regrets de-hubbing DFW.
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vadodara
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:20 pm

Yes. The increase in frequency to international destinations as well as aircraft upgauging will likely carry it over

DL will be left fighting for a few slots at DAL
 
DFW17L
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:21 pm

At these growth rates, how long will it be before the DFW metro statistical area passes Chicago’s 9.5M?
 
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compensateme
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:27 pm

DFW17L wrote:
At these growth rates, how long will it be before the DFW metro statistical area passes Chicago’s 9.5M?


Last projection I saw, the Metroplex will hit 10M in 2030. Chicagoland lost population four years running, so one can expect D/FW to surpass it in the late 2020s/early 2030s.

Of course, government projections in 1998 placed the Metroplex at 6.8M and Chicgoland at 12.2M ... in 2020. Much can change...
Last edited by compensateme on Tue May 21, 2019 9:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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texdravid
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:32 pm

No. Geography wins. ATL is closer to 80% of the US population and is closer to Europe and finally is optimized for northeast to Florida travels.

I say this as a huge DFW fan. International wise DGW has a ways to go. Not enough foreign tails.
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Ishrion
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:34 pm

I'd say so. DFW could become a serious global connecting hub depending on how AA and its partners go. With the impending AA/QF JV Oceania and DFW will most likely be connecting with the possible additions of MEL, BNE, and AKL. With newer aircraft and longer range, South Africa can easily be covered if wanted. DFW-CMN is 5000 nm which can easily be reached with a 788.

DFW-Asia will definitely grow, with additional destinations to cities like TPE, CAN, and other Japan cities. Secondaries may come to fruition, but most likely not in the next decade.

Europe and South American are already strongly connected with the BA/IB/AY JV and the possible AA/LATAM JV.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:37 pm

compensateme wrote:
Isn't it a given? With 24 new gates and a thriving Dallas economy that shows no signs of slowing, I'd bet lunch at Luby's that DFW will surpass ATL within the next 10 years, ending ATL's 20+ years and counting at the top! And that's not even considering DAL!

I bet DL really, really regrets de-hubbing DFW.

In ten years I expect that the new Istanbul or Daxing has the top spot.

DFW will grow and surpass ATL too, so no takers on the lunch bet.

Facinating no discussion of ORD. ;)

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MIflyer12
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:38 pm

No, because Dallas traffic is split over DFW and DAL. That depresses destination count and thus hub thru-traffic.

And what he said:

texdravid wrote:
No. Geography wins. ATL is closer to 80% of the US population and is closer to Europe and finally is optimized for northeast to Florida travels.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 9:41 pm

ATL currently does over 100 million pax, DFW 70 million. Its still a large gap, however it was about a decade ago they were at the mid 50 millions. I would say if they start sending Airbus 319's to a lot of small stations that are currently all Eagle like DL does with the 717 out of ATL there is a shot in about 10 years. However, one thing that helps ATL is that it is the only airport for the metro, it doesnt have a DAL like DFW does. ATL is also a fast growing region as well. If SWA had moved to DFW after DL dehubbed, it probably would be challenging for the top spot by now.
 
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:17 pm

I think DFW will close the gap with ATL but I don’t foresee it overtaking ATL anytime soon. For one, and as mentioned above, D/FW is a split airport metro and two, DFW’s geography simply doesn’t support the kinds of traffic flows that support ATL’s (and CLT to a lesser extent) massive operations. AA’s getting to the point of being maxed out with frequencies on trunk routes, and even though AA continues to add small cities to its network from DFW, it’s not nearly enough to close the 30 million gap that currently exists between it and ATL. Also, in spite of DFW being one of the fastest growing metro areas, ATL is also a fast growing area and will continue to see massive growth as well (another terminal and runway are being planned), which will make it harder for DFW to overtake it as the busiest airport. Last I saw, DL has something like 30-40 thousand more daily seats at ATL than AA does at DFW, and that’s not even counting WN’s decent sized operation at ATL. All in all, I don’t see DFW overtaking ATL within the next 10 years; it may close the gap some, but won’t take the crown from ATL.

Jeremy
 
bob75013
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:22 pm

DFW17L wrote:
At these growth rates, how long will it be before the DFW metro statistical area passes Chicago’s 9.5M?


DFW MSMA is about 7 million and gaining 150k per year. Chicago is 9.5 million and not growing.

If the trend continues, less than 20 years.

Houston was doing the same -- until the hurricane hit.
 
klkla
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:23 pm

What is the actual growth rate in passengers carried for each of the last 10 years for each airport? That would give us an example of the trends for each airport.
 
EarlyLateORD
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:26 pm

From a climate standpoint, DFW is much more secure than Houston, as Chicago-MSP-Denver are much more secure than SF/LA or NYC. Who knows, someday the biggest cities in the United States might no longer be on the coasts.

Adam
 
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:28 pm

Fargo wrote:
With AA building up DFW to 900+ flights, the surging Texas population/economy and the construction/renovation of Terminals F and C looming, AA at DFW will likely surpass DL at ATL in total number of flights. Nonetheless, ATL will still have a large lead in pax and ASM.

Could DFW close the gap in total pax/ASM over the next decade or two as ATL is becoming landlocked while DFW still has ample room for expansion?


Atlanta is among the fastest growing metro's in the nation as well. Atlanta just happen to be surrounding by a growing Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina, that uses ATL as a connection. I don't see it happening or not really sure it matters because of Dubai, Istanbul, and Beijing growth rates as well. ATL is also building a 6th runway in the future.
 
bob75013
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:34 pm

klkla wrote:
What is the actual growth rate in passengers carried for each of the last 10 years for each airport? That would give us an example of the trends for each airport.


The last 10 years is probably the wrong metric - given the recession.

Peak pre recession was 2006

DFW 2006 60.2 million 2018 69.1 million

ATL 2006 85.9 million 2018 107.4 million

per wiki
 
klkla
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:37 pm

bob75013 wrote:
klkla wrote:
What is the actual growth rate in passengers carried for each of the last 10 years for each airport? That would give us an example of the trends for each airport.


The last 10 years is probably the wrong metric - given the recession.

Peak pre recession was 2006

DFW 2006 60.2 million 2018 69.1 million

ATL 2006 85.9 million 2018 107.4 million

per wiki


That's why I said EACH of the last ten years because the ecomony has been growing for nine years in a row and would we an apples-to-apples comparison for the two cities, but thanks for your information which is still helpful.
 
FSDan
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:43 pm

I wouldn't rule it out. Especially if Florida ends up losing a lot of land to rising ocean levels. However, if Florida loses a lot of population, it would hurt DFW flows (Florida to the West) as well...

I don't see DFW surpassing ATL's transatlantic network and capacity any time soon.
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grbauc
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:55 pm

Imagine ALT if CLT wasn't a hub but just a OD CIty.... and ALT was able to have most of the Connections out of CLT.
 
Jetty
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Tue May 21, 2019 10:55 pm

bob75013 wrote:
klkla wrote:
What is the actual growth rate in passengers carried for each of the last 10 years for each airport? That would give us an example of the trends for each airport.


The last 10 years is probably the wrong metric - given the recession.

Peak pre recession was 2006

DFW 2006 60.2 million 2018 69.1 million

ATL 2006 85.9 million 2018 107.4 million

per wiki

Those numbers of DFW aren’t impressive at all. Worldwide rank went from 6th to 15th. :o
 
YoungDon
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:21 am

Not only do I not see DFW passing ATL anytime in the near future, I doubt it will pass ORD either. They're also adding a similar number of gates (25) in the same timeframe, and those gates will be fully utilized as soon as they're open. There's already a gap of around 14 million passengers just to catch ORD. DFW will definitely close the gap some with ATL and ORD, but I don't see it passing either.

The metroplex is growing faster in terms of raw people but Chicago has added more corporate headquarters since the recession than any other metro and is growing quickly (GDP-wise) despite flat population growth. The Chicagoland area, in general, is losing it's poorest residents while gaining richer ones. The fundamentals there don't point to falling aviation demand, though the demographic trends definitely aren't as good overall as you see in Atlanta and Dallas.
 
Fargo
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:30 am

Jetty wrote:
bob75013 wrote:
klkla wrote:
What is the actual growth rate in passengers carried for each of the last 10 years for each airport? That would give us an example of the trends for each airport.


The last 10 years is probably the wrong metric - given the recession.

Peak pre recession was 2006

DFW 2006 60.2 million 2018 69.1 million

ATL 2006 85.9 million 2018 107.4 million

per wiki

Those numbers of DFW aren’t impressive at all. Worldwide rank went from 6th to 15th. :o


In fairness, a lot of the growth at ATL from the mid to late 2000s was the result of DL drawing down DFW and CVG. Absent that, ATL may not be as big as it is today.
 
Fargo
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 1:49 am

Atlwarrior wrote:
Fargo wrote:
With AA building up DFW to 900+ flights, the surging Texas population/economy and the construction/renovation of Terminals F and C looming, AA at DFW will likely surpass DL at ATL in total number of flights. Nonetheless, ATL will still have a large lead in pax and ASM.

Could DFW close the gap in total pax/ASM over the next decade or two as ATL is becoming landlocked while DFW still has ample room for expansion?


Atlanta is among the fastest growing metro's in the nation as well. Atlanta just happen to be surrounding by a growing Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina, that uses ATL as a connection. I don't see it happening or not really sure it matters because of Dubai, Istanbul, and Beijing growth rates as well. ATL is also building a 6th runway in the future.


It doesn't matter because the foreign airports will be overtaking the top spots in the coming years, but I was getting at busiest in the US.

My point was ATL is going to be space-constrained and it will be harder to expand it in the coming years, while DFW, even after Terminal F, still has a fair amount of room where more gates could be added. This would help close the gap. Of course, the only way I really see DFW closing the gap (pax wise) with ATL is if AA upped their mainline %.
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:13 am

What does ASM mean?
 
ewt340
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:18 am

Maybe, but LAX would give DFW a run for its money.
DFW main problems is their geography. It's not a gateway to the US from Asia or Europe and it rely on Dallas and domestic traffic to grow big.

LAX + JFK + ORD have the geography, economy and large populations.

Unless AA would go all in and pull DL on DFW, I don't see it going to the top.
 
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compensateme
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:35 am

grbauc wrote:
Imagine ALT if CLT wasn't a hub but just a OD CIty.... and ALT was able to have most of the Connections out of CLT.


Imagine DFW if IAH wasn’t a hub but just a OD City.... and DFW was able to have most of the Connections out of IAH.
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J343
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:36 am

How did ATL become the world's busiest airport when AA carries more passengers and are the largest airline in the world in terms of pax carried and fleet size. Excuse my innocence.
 
catiii
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:43 am

compensateme wrote:

I bet DL really, really regrets de-hubbing DFW.


I bet they don’t. I bet they’d rather the earnings that they have without DFW, than with DFW.
 
atx11
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:48 am

ewt340 wrote:
Maybe, but LAX would give DFW a run for its money.
DFW main problems is their geography. It's not a gateway to the US from Asia or Europe and it rely on Dallas and domestic traffic to grow big.

LAX + JFK + ORD have the geography, economy and large populations.

Unless AA would go all in and pull DL on DFW, I don't see it going to the top.


This doesn’t have a lot of fact to it, especially on saying it doesn’t have connection traffic.

Yes, LAX has geography for Asia, NY for Europe, and ORD is further north, that’s about it. Fact is DFW serves as a good connection spot for Asia, Aus/NZ, Europe, and South America.

Economy and large population? Not sure where you get info...but DFW is the 4th largest metro area in the country and their economy is absolutely booming. DFW is one of the top spots for Fortune 500 companies, and is home to 3 of the Fortune 10.

Anyways...as a side point to this thread, people forget they’re adding another 4 to 5 stinger gates off D, along with the new 15 they just opened in E. So in the next 6 years there’s another 40-45 gates opening up.
 
Fargo
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:50 am

J343 wrote:
How did ATL become the world's busiest airport when AA carries more passengers and are the largest airline in the world in terms of pax carried and fleet size. Excuse my innocence.


Because DL prefers to route almost half their network through ATL and 80% of that is on mainline jets with at least 100 seats.
 
Fargo
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:51 am

catiii wrote:
compensateme wrote:

I bet DL really, really regrets de-hubbing DFW.


I bet they don’t. I bet they’d rather the earnings that they have without DFW, than with DFW.


I think that was a sarcastic remark taking aim at those who want a bigger DL presence in Texas.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:56 am

J343,
ATL is just extreamely well located for most of Florida to the NorthEast. If National had been closed and IAD was the sole DC airport, then we would have a different discussion.

AA hubs at DFW, ORD, PHX, PHL, MIA, and you could also consider LAX and JFK.

DL hubs at ATL, MSP, SLC, DTW and you could consider LAX, BOS, and JFK.

The reality is while DFW is large, so is MIA and ORD. It is the next tier down in hubs giving AA volume.

ATL is at today's great location. As the US population centroid continues to shift WestSouthWest, advantage DFW.

Lightsaber
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YoungDon
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 3:13 am

lightsaber wrote:
J343,
ATL is just extreamely well located for most of Florida to the NorthEast. If National had been closed and IAD was the sole DC airport, then we would have a different discussion.

AA hubs at DFW, ORD, PHX, PHL, MIA, and you could also consider LAX and JFK.

DL hubs at ATL, MSP, SLC, DTW and you could consider LAX, BOS, and JFK.

The reality is while DFW is large, so is MIA and ORD. It is the next tier down in hubs giving AA volume.

ATL is at today's great location. As the US population centroid continues to shift WestSouthWest, advantage DFW.

Lightsaber


Very good point about the population shift westward that favors DFW. With that being said, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee are all growing quickly as well. The big markets out west are getting bigger but you're starting to see a lot more growth in medium-sized western cities as well (Sacramento, Reno, Boise, etc.) which could accelerate. Will be interesting to see how this impacts traffic flows going forward. That pattern favors the growth of DEN too.

I still think ORD is going to take a lot of that future growth feeding those cities along with DEN and DFW. Even with the 40-45 gates DFW adds, I still don't think it will have more total gates than ORD after Terminal 2 gets reconstructed. Right now, aren't they about 20-30 gates apart?

Whatever happens, in a decade the top 4 US airports will likely be a lot closer to one another in terms of pax numbers than they are today. All four have capital spending plans expanding capacity (though Atlanta pared theirs down quite a bit for now) and good reasons to grow in the future.
 
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 3:39 am

Given the power of DL in ATL and the airport itself, ATL needn't worry about being landlocked. It will find the room it needs to expand for years to come.
 
AAtakeMeAway
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 3:49 am

Fargo wrote:
catiii wrote:
compensateme wrote:

I bet DL really, really regrets de-hubbing DFW.


I bet they don’t. I bet they’d rather the earnings that they have without DFW, than with DFW.


I think that was a sarcastic remark taking aim at those who want a bigger DL presence in Texas.


Let’s hope because it’s no secret that the DL DFW hub operated in the red for much of its existence. When they turned the satellite into all RJ/prop, that was the beginning of the end.

It’s unfortunate because, despite my handle, I was a true DL fan in those days. I loved the single terminal and their staff were so much friendlier than AA, even back then. People talk about how AA’s inflight service has been in a decline since the US merger, but the fact is, is it’s been very hit or miss for decades ... I actually think it’s improved somewhat, but I digress.
 
ewt340
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 7:49 am

atx11 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Maybe, but LAX would give DFW a run for its money.
DFW main problems is their geography. It's not a gateway to the US from Asia or Europe and it rely on Dallas and domestic traffic to grow big.

LAX + JFK + ORD have the geography, economy and large populations.

Unless AA would go all in and pull DL on DFW, I don't see it going to the top.


This doesn’t have a lot of fact to it, especially on saying it doesn’t have connection traffic.

Yes, LAX has geography for Asia, NY for Europe, and ORD is further north, that’s about it. Fact is DFW serves as a good connection spot for Asia, Aus/NZ, Europe, and South America.

Economy and large population? Not sure where you get info...but DFW is the 4th largest metro area in the country and their economy is absolutely booming. DFW is one of the top spots for Fortune 500 companies, and is home to 3 of the Fortune 10.

Anyways...as a side point to this thread, people forget they’re adding another 4 to 5 stinger gates off D, along with the new 15 they just opened in E. So in the next 6 years there’s another 40-45 gates opening up.


More gates could also mean higher frequency and regional jets. As we know how the US market are really scattered and required lots of smaller aircrafts to served. But of course capacity increase would be unavoidable.

Also, dallas isn't a tourist destinations like LA or New York is. Most people that go through there probably are residents or business people. Of course some people go there for holiday (but why though) but there are many factors that dallas doesn't have. As for metro aside, LA have more than 13 millions people. Chicago have more than 9.5 millions. Dallas have more than 7 millions. Talking about Atlanta, the metro grow quite fast as well. Dallas isn't the only one growing.

Unless AA goes all in on DFW, it wouldn't surpass ATL.

Beside, the main difference between DFW and ATL is the fact that ATL locations are strategic for Latin America and European Traffic. While dallas only got Latin American traffic.

And as someone who traveled to Dallas on quarterly basis. The timing and connections they provide to Asia isn't as good as LAX, SFO, SEA or YVR. I don't see how they could make the growth apart from some point-to-point destinations across Asia and Europe.

And we know expansion to Asian destinations isn't easy when you got stiff competitions from Asian Carriers would put heavy dent on their bottom line on those routes.
 
micstatic
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 12:26 pm

very interesting thread. Thanks for starting this
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J343
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 2:04 pm

lightsaber wrote:
J343,
ATL is just extreamely well located for most of Florida to the NorthEast. If National had been closed and IAD was the sole DC airport, then we would have a different discussion.

AA hubs at DFW, ORD, PHX, PHL, MIA, and you could also consider LAX and JFK.

DL hubs at ATL, MSP, SLC, DTW and you could consider LAX, BOS, and JFK.

The reality is while DFW is large, so is MIA and ORD. It is the next tier down in hubs giving AA volume.

ATL is at today's great location. As the US population centroid continues to shift WestSouthWest, advantage DFW.

Lightsaber


Thank you very much! Very informative.
 
atx11
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Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 4:04 pm

ewt340 wrote:
atx11 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Maybe, but LAX would give DFW a run for its money.
DFW main problems is their geography. It's not a gateway to the US from Asia or Europe and it rely on Dallas and domestic traffic to grow big.

LAX + JFK + ORD have the geography, economy and large populations.

Unless AA would go all in and pull DL on DFW, I don't see it going to the top.


This doesn’t have a lot of fact to it, especially on saying it doesn’t have connection traffic.

Yes, LAX has geography for Asia, NY for Europe, and ORD is further north, that’s about it. Fact is DFW serves as a good connection spot for Asia, Aus/NZ, Europe, and South America.

Economy and large population? Not sure where you get info...but DFW is the 4th largest metro area in the country and their economy is absolutely booming. DFW is one of the top spots for Fortune 500 companies, and is home to 3 of the Fortune 10.

Anyways...as a side point to this thread, people forget they’re adding another 4 to 5 stinger gates off D, along with the new 15 they just opened in E. So in the next 6 years there’s another 40-45 gates opening up.


More gates could also mean higher frequency and regional jets. As we know how the US market are really scattered and required lots of smaller aircrafts to served. But of course capacity increase would be unavoidable.

Also, dallas isn't a tourist destinations like LA or New York is. Most people that go through there probably are residents or business people. Of course some people go there for holiday (but why though) but there are many factors that dallas doesn't have. As for metro aside, LA have more than 13 millions people. Chicago have more than 9.5 millions. Dallas have more than 7 millions. Talking about Atlanta, the metro grow quite fast as well. Dallas isn't the only one growing.

Unless AA goes all in on DFW, it wouldn't surpass ATL.

Beside, the main difference between DFW and ATL is the fact that ATL locations are strategic for Latin America and European Traffic. While dallas only got Latin American traffic.

And as someone who traveled to Dallas on quarterly basis. The timing and connections they provide to Asia isn't as good as LAX, SFO, SEA or YVR. I don't see how they could make the growth apart from some point-to-point destinations across Asia and Europe.

And we know expansion to Asian destinations isn't easy when you got stiff competitions from Asian Carriers would put heavy dent on their bottom line on those routes.


I'd have to disagree. As for regionals, they're moving as many as they can to E to open up mainline gates at B. The whole point of what you're seeing is to increase capacity for mainline jets and to add more international flights (therefore more pax movement) from DFW to shift routes and begin new ones to a more profitable airport. So in a sense, yes, I think you're seeing AA go all in on DFW. They are going to be occupying the vast majority of the the new gates, and serve almost every domestic route they can from DFW. They have stated publicly (and privately) that they are going to increase intl flying from DFW in the coming years. The plan is to have intl flights from D and F, most likely a single sterile corridor, but TBD on having a separate one in F.

It doesn't make sense for AA to compete on Asia from LAX, so you're going to see more Asia flights added from DFW because they do command a higher premium. Everyone gets caught up in the NY/LAX markets, but there's a whole lot of the country out there that needs/wants to connect in other airports. Even for Europe, as most OneWorld flyers from anywhere west of Dallas, will be flying through DFW. LAX is a money loser for AA, and they are going to fly from where they make the most $$ with this new admin running the show. The 788/9 is going to allow them to expand quite a lot out of DFW. Just in my honest opinion - I think you're going to see status quo at LAX, a further drawdown at other hubs outside of PHL and CLT. AA is going to focus on DFW, CLT, and PHL for the foreseeable future for better or for worse.

As for increased frequency and catching ATL, as stated up thread, the DFW area is projected to pass Chicagoland metro pop in the next decade. So the Chicago argument kind of falls flat. IMO I don't see it mattering much since foreign airports will take the crown soon enough, but I think you're going to see the top airports in the US get much closer together in pax traffic. Lightsaber also made a great point in saying the pop of the US is shifting further west and south, so time will tell how things will play out.
 
ewt340
Posts: 678
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Wed May 22, 2019 10:56 pm

atx11 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
atx11 wrote:

This doesn’t have a lot of fact to it, especially on saying it doesn’t have connection traffic.

Yes, LAX has geography for Asia, NY for Europe, and ORD is further north, that’s about it. Fact is DFW serves as a good connection spot for Asia, Aus/NZ, Europe, and South America.

Economy and large population? Not sure where you get info...but DFW is the 4th largest metro area in the country and their economy is absolutely booming. DFW is one of the top spots for Fortune 500 companies, and is home to 3 of the Fortune 10.

Anyways...as a side point to this thread, people forget they’re adding another 4 to 5 stinger gates off D, along with the new 15 they just opened in E. So in the next 6 years there’s another 40-45 gates opening up.


More gates could also mean higher frequency and regional jets. As we know how the US market are really scattered and required lots of smaller aircrafts to served. But of course capacity increase would be unavoidable.

Also, dallas isn't a tourist destinations like LA or New York is. Most people that go through there probably are residents or business people. Of course some people go there for holiday (but why though) but there are many factors that dallas doesn't have. As for metro aside, LA have more than 13 millions people. Chicago have more than 9.5 millions. Dallas have more than 7 millions. Talking about Atlanta, the metro grow quite fast as well. Dallas isn't the only one growing.

Unless AA goes all in on DFW, it wouldn't surpass ATL.

Beside, the main difference between DFW and ATL is the fact that ATL locations are strategic for Latin America and European Traffic. While dallas only got Latin American traffic.

And as someone who traveled to Dallas on quarterly basis. The timing and connections they provide to Asia isn't as good as LAX, SFO, SEA or YVR. I don't see how they could make the growth apart from some point-to-point destinations across Asia and Europe.

And we know expansion to Asian destinations isn't easy when you got stiff competitions from Asian Carriers would put heavy dent on their bottom line on those routes.


I'd have to disagree. As for regionals, they're moving as many as they can to E to open up mainline gates at B. The whole point of what you're seeing is to increase capacity for mainline jets and to add more international flights (therefore more pax movement) from DFW to shift routes and begin new ones to a more profitable airport. So in a sense, yes, I think you're seeing AA go all in on DFW. They are going to be occupying the vast majority of the the new gates, and serve almost every domestic route they can from DFW. They have stated publicly (and privately) that they are going to increase intl flying from DFW in the coming years. The plan is to have intl flights from D and F, most likely a single sterile corridor, but TBD on having a separate one in F.

It doesn't make sense for AA to compete on Asia from LAX, so you're going to see more Asia flights added from DFW because they do command a higher premium. Everyone gets caught up in the NY/LAX markets, but there's a whole lot of the country out there that needs/wants to connect in other airports. Even for Europe, as most OneWorld flyers from anywhere west of Dallas, will be flying through DFW. LAX is a money loser for AA, and they are going to fly from where they make the most $$ with this new admin running the show. The 788/9 is going to allow them to expand quite a lot out of DFW. Just in my honest opinion - I think you're going to see status quo at LAX, a further drawdown at other hubs outside of PHL and CLT. AA is going to focus on DFW, CLT, and PHL for the foreseeable future for better or for worse.

As for increased frequency and catching ATL, as stated up thread, the DFW area is projected to pass Chicagoland metro pop in the next decade. So the Chicago argument kind of falls flat. IMO I don't see it mattering much since foreign airports will take the crown soon enough, but I think you're going to see the top airports in the US get much closer together in pax traffic. Lightsaber also made a great point in saying the pop of the US is shifting further west and south, so time will tell how things will play out.


I don't see the international connections to work out. While it's true they could expand there. Asian carriers wouldn't let them go that easy. They would try to expand to DFW as well. Majority of Asian passengers like myself prefers those airlines compared to AA just because they scheduling, pricing and services are way better. Like majority of instances for routes to and from Asian cities.

As for Europe, again, DFW have to compete with East Coast gateway like ATL, JFK, ORD and many others like BOS, IAD, EWR, PHL and even YYZ. If they want to go to West Coast destinations, It's more likely that they are more likely to stop by gateway like YVR, SEA, SFO or LAX.

Again, their main market gonna be Dallas residents and business people. Other smaller airports I mentioned above would be provide connecting passengers with better connections and better fares compared to DFW.

Personally, I see much more growth in Austin to be fair.
 
atx11
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2018 8:14 pm

Re: Could DFW one day rival/surpass ATL in total pax/ASM?

Thu May 23, 2019 12:17 am

ewt340 wrote:
atx11 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:

More gates could also mean higher frequency and regional jets. As we know how the US market are really scattered and required lots of smaller aircrafts to served. But of course capacity increase would be unavoidable.

Also, dallas isn't a tourist destinations like LA or New York is. Most people that go through there probably are residents or business people. Of course some people go there for holiday (but why though) but there are many factors that dallas doesn't have. As for metro aside, LA have more than 13 millions people. Chicago have more than 9.5 millions. Dallas have more than 7 millions. Talking about Atlanta, the metro grow quite fast as well. Dallas isn't the only one growing.

Unless AA goes all in on DFW, it wouldn't surpass ATL.

Beside, the main difference between DFW and ATL is the fact that ATL locations are strategic for Latin America and European Traffic. While dallas only got Latin American traffic.

And as someone who traveled to Dallas on quarterly basis. The timing and connections they provide to Asia isn't as good as LAX, SFO, SEA or YVR. I don't see how they could make the growth apart from some point-to-point destinations across Asia and Europe.

And we know expansion to Asian destinations isn't easy when you got stiff competitions from Asian Carriers would put heavy dent on their bottom line on those routes.


I'd have to disagree. As for regionals, they're moving as many as they can to E to open up mainline gates at B. The whole point of what you're seeing is to increase capacity for mainline jets and to add more international flights (therefore more pax movement) from DFW to shift routes and begin new ones to a more profitable airport. So in a sense, yes, I think you're seeing AA go all in on DFW. They are going to be occupying the vast majority of the the new gates, and serve almost every domestic route they can from DFW. They have stated publicly (and privately) that they are going to increase intl flying from DFW in the coming years. The plan is to have intl flights from D and F, most likely a single sterile corridor, but TBD on having a separate one in F.

It doesn't make sense for AA to compete on Asia from LAX, so you're going to see more Asia flights added from DFW because they do command a higher premium. Everyone gets caught up in the NY/LAX markets, but there's a whole lot of the country out there that needs/wants to connect in other airports. Even for Europe, as most OneWorld flyers from anywhere west of Dallas, will be flying through DFW. LAX is a money loser for AA, and they are going to fly from where they make the most $$ with this new admin running the show. The 788/9 is going to allow them to expand quite a lot out of DFW. Just in my honest opinion - I think you're going to see status quo at LAX, a further drawdown at other hubs outside of PHL and CLT. AA is going to focus on DFW, CLT, and PHL for the foreseeable future for better or for worse.

As for increased frequency and catching ATL, as stated up thread, the DFW area is projected to pass Chicagoland metro pop in the next decade. So the Chicago argument kind of falls flat. IMO I don't see it mattering much since foreign airports will take the crown soon enough, but I think you're going to see the top airports in the US get much closer together in pax traffic. Lightsaber also made a great point in saying the pop of the US is shifting further west and south, so time will tell how things will play out.


I don't see the international connections to work out. While it's true they could expand there. Asian carriers wouldn't let them go that easy. They would try to expand to DFW as well. Majority of Asian passengers like myself prefers those airlines compared to AA just because they scheduling, pricing and services are way better. Like majority of instances for routes to and from Asian cities.

As for Europe, again, DFW have to compete with East Coast gateway like ATL, JFK, ORD and many others like BOS, IAD, EWR, PHL and even YYZ. If they want to go to West Coast destinations, It's more likely that they are more likely to stop by gateway like YVR, SEA, SFO or LAX.

Again, their main market gonna be Dallas residents and business people. Other smaller airports I mentioned above would be provide connecting passengers with better connections and better fares compared to DFW.

Personally, I see much more growth in Austin to be fair.


Well, as someone who is very familiar with AA movements, please understand where I’m coming from :).

You also have to understand the history of DFW and the allocation of slots to foreign flagged carriers. View the latest example of Iceland air being forced out last year. That’s why DFW is a fortress hub, one in which AA will expand even further.

You have to view things from an alliance perspective and from a general traveler perspective. ORD is not an east coast gateway, and the other gateways you mentioned...BOS - non hub, YYZ - non US hub, IAD/EWR - UA hubs, are not One World hubs. Yes, PHL is a OW hub, but capacity constrained (I.e. look at expansion in CLT and DFW (AA stripping their PHL-MUC route and awarding it to DFW).

Bottom line is what I’m typing is already happening. You can believe it or not, but it’s playing out as we speak. There are a tremendous amount of OW and general feeder markers that connect through DFW, you just have to understand the gravity of the situation.

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