sonicruiser
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Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:05 pm

LAX is currently the 4th busiest airport globally, and with the move to Daxing for Beijing, it is slated to become the 3rd busiest. It is also rapidly narrowing the gap with DXB having just passed HND, and if it passes DXB, LAX would become the 2nd busiest airport in the world, right behind ATL. The question must then be asked: Does LAX have any chance of passing ATL in the future to become the world's busiest airport?
 
Judge1310
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:08 pm

In a word:

No.
 
timz
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:24 pm

Busiest by passenger count? O&D passengers only -- connecting passengers don't count? Or what?
 
SDFguy
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:25 pm

I think LAX will be busier than ATL starting in 2028, when they host the Olympics.
 
BigPlaneGuy13
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:30 pm

It was talked about in the Chicago thread, but isn't ORD technically the busiest now?
 
gregn21
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:38 pm

[list=][/list]
BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
It was talked about in the Chicago thread, but isn't ORD technically the busiest now?


Only busiest based on movements. In annual passengers the list goes ATL, PEK, DXB, LAX. A large amount of PEK’s traffic will move to Daxing pretty soon and we have seen DXB’s rapid growth taper off lately. I think LAX is a pretty safe bet at #2 a few years down the line assuming some big hub expansions like IST, ORD, and HKG don’t pass it up in the meantime.
 
Western727
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 8:58 pm

gregn21 wrote:
[list=][/list]
BigPlaneGuy13 wrote:
It was talked about in the Chicago thread, but isn't ORD technically the busiest now?


Only busiest based on movements. In annual passengers the list goes ATL, PEK, DXB, LAX. A large amount of PEK’s traffic will move to Daxing pretty soon and we have seen DXB’s rapid growth taper off lately. I think LAX is a pretty safe bet at #2 a few years down the line assuming some big hub expansions like IST, ORD, and HKG don’t pass it up in the meantime.


I'm with you on measuring not by a/c movements, but by pax.
Jack @ AUS
 
sargester
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:04 pm

DFW will be #1 one day with AA bringing on what is now 24 mainline and 15 regional gates along with the refurb of T C which odds are will make it more efficient for what it is
 
MartijnNL
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:05 pm

timz wrote:
Busiest by passenger count? O&D passengers only -- connecting passengers don't count? Or what?

Total number of passengers per year sounds logical to me, whereby each arriving, departing or transiting passenger counts as one.
 
caliboy93
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:09 pm

No, because LAX is not a huge hub for any major airline, whereas ATL is a massive hub for Delta and its geographic location makes it convenient for passengers connecting domestically. In the world, ATL won't stay at #1 forever - I think it will pass the crown to IST which is projected to have 150 million passengers by 2023.
 
SDFguy
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:23 pm

caliboy93 wrote:
No, because LAX is not a huge hub for any major airline, whereas ATL is a massive hub for Delta and its geographic location makes it convenient for passengers connecting domestically. In the world, ATL won't stay at #1 forever - I think it will pass the crown to IST which is projected to have 150 million passengers by 2023.


LOL, who is "projecting" IST to have 150 million passengers by 2023?? How are they magically going to have an annualized growth rate of 17%?
 
Planeboy17
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:29 pm

One very important dynamic that I haven’t seen stated yet is infrastructure.
LAX has 4 runways and barring some amazing engineering development will have only 4 runways for the foreseeable future. Yes, they are and will be building more terminals and it’s possible, even likely ,that ATC will become more efficient in the future but 100 million pax is a lot of pressure on 4 runways.
 
Judge1310
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:45 pm

Planeboy17 wrote:
One very important dynamic that I haven’t seen stated yet is infrastructure.
LAX has 4 runways and barring some amazing engineering development will have only 4 runways for the foreseeable future. Yes, they are and will be building more terminals and it’s possible, even likely ,that ATC will become more efficient in the future but 100 million pax is a lot of pressure on 4 runways.


Ding ding ding, we have a winner! For all the "nice thoughts" as to LAX becoming #1, one simply can't ignore the fact that there are currently 4 runways and the thought of a 5th or even 6th runway is almost incomprehensible. There's a reason why the LA market can handle five airports operating commercial flights within the same metropolitan area.
 
airbazar
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 9:55 pm

sonicruiser wrote:
The question must then be asked: Does LAX have any chance of passing ATL in the future to become the world's busiest airport?

The answer is, yes it has a chance. Will it it pass ATL? Without adding more gates it's difficult to see it happen.
The lack of gates at LAX limits the amount of connections it can handle and that's an advantage that ATL has. On the flip side, the DL fortress hub is a huge deterrent for other airlines to come to, or grow at ATL so it's entirely dependent on Delta for its continuing growth.

Planeboy17 wrote:
One very important dynamic that I haven’t seen stated yet is infrastructure.
LAX has 4 runways and barring some amazing engineering development will have only 4 runways for the foreseeable future. Yes, they are and will be building more terminals and it’s possible, even likely ,that ATC will become more efficient in the future but 100 million pax is a lot of pressure on 4 runways.

If LHR can handle 80 million pax with only 2 runways and DXB can handle 90 million with only 2 runways, handling 100 million with 4 runways should be a cake walk. ATL needs 6 runways not because of the passenger numbers but because of all the puddle jumpers it has to accommodate. ATL has almost 200,000 more movements than LAX.
Last edited by airbazar on Wed May 29, 2019 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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airporthistory
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 10:10 pm

A look back at LAX when it was a state of the art facility: https://www.airporthistory.org/lax-photo-special-1.html
Last edited by airporthistory on Wed May 29, 2019 10:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
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kc135topboom
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 10:17 pm

SDFguy wrote:
I think LAX will be busier than ATL starting in 2028, when they host the Olympics.



Only for the one year of the Olympics. ATL will still be king of the airport hill.

LAX is restrained because it cannot build more runways. The runways they have are not compliant with the FARs. Runways need to be 1200' apart for departure and arrival runways, and 5000' between two arrival runways. LAX has a waiver to this as the airport was built originally in 1928 and the runways extended in 1962 before the current airport design FAR.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 11:04 pm

sargester wrote:
DFW will be #1 one day with AA bringing on what is now 24 mainline and 15 regional gates along with the refurb of T C which odds are will make it more efficient for what it is


Just a tip: 67 million is nowhere close to 103.9 million. ATL will happily build as many new gates as DFW.

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/bus ... tates.html

As others have mentioned, LAX is infrastructure-impaired. It's also NIMBY-constrained. They're not likely to have a $XX Billion terminal addition plan to build 50 incremental gates in the next twenty years.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 11:09 pm

sargester wrote:
DFW will be #1 one day

Very doubtful, no matter how many runways/gates they build, and regardless of what AA does.

Why? ....first: geography.
DFW's primary role will always be an east-west transit hub, with limited international north-south flow.
ATL on the other hand, hosts massive flows in all four directions. both internationally and domestically, while being positioned in a much denser region of the country.

Second: Love.
That'll always be a major thorn in DFW's side, in terms of challenging ATL.... and unless hell freezes over, and a second ATL airport is ever commissioned for scheduled pax service, that doesn't seem likely to change.
I myself, suspect a more prosaic motive... ~Thranduil
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 11:20 pm

LAX is NOT going to be #1. It exists solely for O&D operations and no airline including Delta, American, United, or Alaska have a "Large Hub" there. Not to mention, LAX has no room for growth, it is busting at the seams as it is. ATL doesn't have that problem.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
 
Bradin
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 11:36 pm

kc135topboom wrote:
LAX is restrained because it cannot build more runways. The runways they have are not compliant with the FARs. Runways need to be 1200' apart for departure and arrival runways, and 5000' between two arrival runways. LAX has a waiver to this as the airport was built originally in 1928 and the runways extended in 1962 before the current airport design FAR.


I might be wrong, but isn't 25L and 25R more than 1200' apart?
 
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ER757
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Wed May 29, 2019 11:41 pm

Several factors touched on above will prevent LAX from becoming #1 - among them:
Not a fortress hub for a major carrier
Mostly O&D so far less connecting passengers than ATL, DXB, etc
fragmentation among the SoCal airports (SNA, BUR, ONT, LAX)
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 12:09 am

airbazar wrote:
sonicruiser wrote:
The question must then be asked: Does LAX have any chance of passing ATL in the future to become the world's busiest airport?

The answer is, yes it has a chance. Will it it pass ATL? Without adding more gates it's difficult to see it happen.
The lack of gates at LAX limits the amount of connections it can handle and that's an advantage that ATL has. On the flip side, the DL fortress hub is a huge deterrent for other airlines to come to, or grow at ATL so it's entirely dependent on Delta for its continuing growth.

Planeboy17 wrote:
One very important dynamic that I haven’t seen stated yet is infrastructure.
LAX has 4 runways and barring some amazing engineering development will have only 4 runways for the foreseeable future. Yes, they are and will be building more terminals and it’s possible, even likely ,that ATC will become more efficient in the future but 100 million pax is a lot of pressure on 4 runways.

If LHR can handle 80 million pax with only 2 runways and DXB can handle 90 million with only 2 runways, handling 100 million with 4 runways should be a cake walk. ATL needs 6 runways not because of the passenger numbers but because of all the puddle jumpers it has to accommodate. ATL has almost 200,000 more movements than LAX.


Compared to LAX, DXB has a lot more large aircraft considering it’s the hub for Emirates (lots of 77Ws and a380s), so aircraft movements aren’t as high for DXB. LAX has a lot of smaller mainline and RJs.
 
rbavfan
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 1:07 am

Judge1310 wrote:
In a word:

No.


Why do you say no? What kind of proof do you have that they will not.
 
Judge1310
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 1:40 am

rbavfan wrote:
Judge1310 wrote:
In a word:

No.


Why do you say no? What kind of proof do you have that they will not.


How about you keep reading and see the many responses posted by myself and others for your answer...
 
B747forever
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 8:08 am

Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!
Work Hard, Fly Right
 
airbazar
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 3:30 pm

ER757 wrote:
Several factors touched on above will prevent LAX from becoming #1 - among them:
Not a fortress hub for a major carrier
Mostly O&D so far less connecting passengers than ATL, DXB, etc
fragmentation among the SoCal airports (SNA, BUR, ONT, LAX)


And yet it's already at nearly 90 million passengers and it has outpaced ATL in passenger growth each of the last 5 years.
If it keeps outpacing ATL's growth it's not a matter of if but when.
And when the Scoot's of the world start flying into LAX its growth will shoot up even more. I don't see TATL LCC's coming into ATL any time soon.
 
caliboy93
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 5:15 pm

B747forever wrote:
Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!


Ironically, everytime I flew into LAX it was for connection only!
 
Western727
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 5:50 pm

B747forever wrote:
Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!


Precisely why I fly into LAX on DL or UA (last terminals before one exits LAX), and out on WN (terminal 1, right at the entrance) whenever possible. The drive around the terminals can be really time-consuming.
Jack @ AUS
 
IndyHoosier
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 6:02 pm

B747forever wrote:
Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!


Does anyone have a list of the busiest O&D airports. Interested to see the other airports in the top 10.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 6:18 pm

IndyHoosier wrote:
B747forever wrote:
Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!


Does anyone have a list of the busiest O&D airports. Interested to see the other airports in the top 10.


For the US

Image
Delta Diamond Medallion and AAdvantage Gold for 2019
 
IndyHoosier
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Thu May 30, 2019 6:33 pm

Midwestindy wrote:
IndyHoosier wrote:
B747forever wrote:
Well, we are already the worlds busiest O&D airport in the world. A much better metric than counting all those connecting pax that don't help the local economy that much!


Does anyone have a list of the busiest O&D airports. Interested to see the other airports in the top 10.


For the US

Image


Very interesting chart. Thank you!
 
dfwjim1
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Fri May 31, 2019 5:53 am

To be fair ATL has only one commercial airport whereas the LA Basin has five.
 
timz
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:54 pm

Bradin wrote:
isn't [LAX] 25L and 25R more than 1200' apart?

Google maps measurement is good for that -- they're now 800 feet. They were about 745 feet until they shifted one of them to get room for the taxiway between.
 
jumpjets
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Sun Jun 09, 2019 9:38 pm

SDFguy wrote:
I think LAX will be busier than ATL starting in 2028, when they host the Olympics.


I am not sure that the Olympics is a big driver for passenger increases - looking at the Wikepedia pages for Heathrow and Gatwick in 2012 when the games were in London the figures show only small passenger number increases over 2011 and the increases in subsequent years were much higher.

I recall the tourist authorities here in London saying that the Olympics seemed to put off tourists, who weren't actually going to the Games, from travelling to London. I am not sure how much of the routine traffic at ATL is tourist driven and so there may be less downside.
 
Bradin
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Re: Will LAX pass ATL to become the world's busiest airport?

Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:27 pm

timz wrote:
Bradin wrote:
isn't [LAX] 25L and 25R more than 1200' apart?

Google maps measurement is good for that -- they're now 800 feet. They were about 745 feet until they shifted one of them to get room for the taxiway between.


How does one measure the distance between two runways? From the centerline? From the edges? etc..

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