Mon Jun 03, 2019 5:42 am
Structurally, what do they have going on?
In SFO, American moves from T2 to T1 in March 2020, which frees up several more gates which I think AS would get. Cities served by at least 3 AS hubs but not SFO include: ABQ, ANC, BOI, BUR, EUG, FAT, GEG, LIH, MSP, OMA, PHX, RNO, TUS.
SJC opens six new gates this month. I've no idea who gets those gates. Using the same criteria as before: ABQ, ANC, BOS, BWI, DCA, FAT, GEG, LAS, MCI, MCO, MSP, OMA, ORD, PHL, PHX, PSP, PVR, SLC.
SEA has no new gates until mid 2020, as the north satellite renovation closes old gates as it opens new.
In LAX, expansion is supposedly coming, but I have no ideas on any details. Perhaps it's related to or dependent on the new WN and UA terminals, which would make it years out.
PDX has the most available room, and can probably grow as much as the local economy can support.
ATL, DEN, and DFW are notable cities that AS only serves from SEA/PDX or only SEA. CLT I think is the most notable US city without AS presence.
Fleet wise, I think they have three 9Max scheduled for delivery through the end of the year. At the end of 1Q19 they had 237 mainline aircraft, which I think is ahead of a forecast they made in 2018. I'd guess they've postponed whatever those Maxes were going to do, so if/when that plane gets recertified they may have another 30 hours/day block initially.
In wild speculation... the cost to add a new, larger, fleet is extremely high for a company that has neither the gates or hangars readily available, to say nothing of sims, parts inventory, engine shops, and so on. But they do have the 321NEO now, and the 321LR is a plane that exists, and the 321XLR is a plane that might soon exist. 4700nm on an XLR could get NRT, ICN, LIM, DUB, LHR, CDG, FRA. From HNL it gets the entirety of North America, and the pacific rim to SYD and AKL. Even 4000nm for a 321LR would hit the entirety of North America from ANC, and everything west of Chicago to HNL.
In other wild speculation.... the youngest -700 is 18 years old. Something smallish with exceptional runway performance is going to be needed to replace it within the state of Alaska in about 5 years or so.