TTailedTiger
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:20 am

eamondzhang wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
Who says it has to be Europe? I could see F9 as a new disruptor to/from Hawaii.

Well one doesn't need XLR capability if it's West Coast - Europe. Even CEO can do the job.

Michael


Since when can an A321 fly from the West coast to Europe?
 
upperdeckfan
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:25 am

Claiming that long-haul by LCC's has not been profitable doesn't mean it will be that way forever. The only "true" example of a significant LCC long haul operation in the last few years has been DY. Other so called LCC's are subsidiaries of legacy groups such as Level and Joon. All of these have been flying widebodies, with the likes of TP, EI and TS starting to fly narrowbodies across the pond we'll see how TATL air traffic take shape in the next few years.

Time will tell what F9 will do with 18 XLR's, I frankly doubt they will only be used for transcon and Hawaii
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eamondzhang
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:50 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
eamondzhang wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
Who says it has to be Europe? I could see F9 as a new disruptor to/from Hawaii.

Well one doesn't need XLR capability if it's West Coast - Europe. Even CEO can do the job.

Michael


Since when can an A321 fly from the West coast to Europe?

My bad, was trying to say West Coast-Hawaii

Michael
 
mspeaumsn
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:47 am

Cannot wait to fly ORF- OPO nonstop... :duck:
 
oldannyboy
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:18 am

jfk777 wrote:
At the Paris Air Show Airbus has given hope to every airline flying an A321 justification for flying to Europe. Why does Frontier want to fly to London , Paris or Amsterdam ? It is Nirvana, Ego, The Promised Land, just bragging rights ? Just because they could should they ? If flying the Atlantic with 737 or A321 were such a great business Ryannair & EasyJet would be the biggest airlines to Europe but they are not.

Frontier needs to continue doing what is has been doing and leave the Atlantic to the 787 & 777 flying airlines.


Absolutely agree. Thanks for instilling some sanity in this discussion.
Everybody wants to be a game-changer these days... Yeah, right! Too much facebook on people's minds I think...
 
Bobloblaw
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:35 am

VS11 wrote:
freakyrat wrote:
F9 is getting the jet to fly Transconinental flights from the East to the West Coast.


Why do they need the XLR for that? The regular NEO should be sufficient.

Everyone remember that JetBlue’s transcons were huge moneylosers until they introduced MINT. Now maybe F9 can ancillary their way to profitability on transons but long flights become very fuel intensive and ULCCs pay the same or more for fuel as legacies, so cost advantage lost. Also for ancillary, those aren’t mileage based so the greatest revenue boost for ancillary fees is on shorter flights where they contribute a high percent of total revenues. A $25 bag fee on a 2,500 mile is 1 cent yield were as a on 500 mile flight it is 5 cents.

I would think legacies’ basic economy would be a huge hinder to ULCCs flying any competitive long haul routes. On a 5 hour flight, seat pitch, snacks and IFE become more of an issue. If DL/UA/AA basic economy matches F9, who flies F9? Everyone should recall allegiant flopped to Hawaii.
 
Aither
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:38 am

VS11 wrote:
Not sure if many folks here realize how much demand from the US to Europe there is during summertime, and how unaffordable it can be to go there during that time. On the legacy carriers, It is unreasonable to buy one-way ticket as they sell it for $2000, last minute fares are ridiculous as everything is sold out. For a family of 4 it could be out of reach to visit Europe and plenty of Americans want to do that. There is no doubt for me that Frontier can make money flying to Europe on the XLR, at least during Summer, even out of Trenton. They show up on search engines like Kayak so their services will get noticed. I have flown Frontier and Spirit domestically, Wow and Norwegian internationally and there is nothing peculiar about any of them. They provide excellent value.


Absolutely true.
I think it's not about long haul LCC or a change of business model here. It's about trying some opportunities without carrying the risk of operating widebody aircraft (especially during the low season). If it turns out to be very successful maybe they will consider some strategic changes. If it does not work, the aircraft remains a capable A321 which should be OK for many traditional missions.
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sunking737
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:27 am

Strange just a few years ago so many A.netters just wanted to talk about how bad F9 was and all the doom and gloom topics....Now look at F9, we are talking transatlantic & maybe even Hawaii.....
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:48 am

Abeam79 wrote:
Enilria, I always truly respect your opinions and posts, but flying over the pond with the product frontier offer and density is dead on arrival. You need not to look further than the experiment of Primera air. They were basically the equivalent, maybe even a little better product I would even add. And look how that ended up when they started flying over the pond. Frontier does not have relevant network on the mid west or eastern seaboard. If you don’t have that you’re guaranteed to fail. Just like Primera air. They had no relevant network on either end of the pond. B6 on the other hand, has a huge network in the cities they will fly transatlantic from, JFK and Boston. Plus they have an expansive codeshare network that could help them on the other side of the pond. Low-cost narrow body transatlantic flying needs to have a special secret sauce all of which B6 have. A lower price Point, better product than the competitors, and lower cost, and a very good premium product.
So if anything, frontier will use this more for transcontinental , maybe a few hops over to Hawaii, and maybe Denver a little bit further deeper into the Caribbean or Central America or northern South America if that. If you look at frontier they start a route and quickly give it up as soon as the market realizes they’re only good for one shot. Then they Move on. Certain markets work well for them like Orlando, because a lot of the flights they do are bearable for a couple of hours.
It’s all decent speculation but I would not bet on it that’s for sure .

You do realize that I didn’t write the quoted article? Having said that, I don’t think it’s crazy at all. They just need a market big enough to fill the plane. Coupling it with Wizz is interesting.

With F9’s 2/week model they are using I think a lot more things start to work.
 
Rustbelt
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:10 pm

Someone mentioned CVG before, and F9 has been building up in CVG for some time now. With Delta previously flying CVG-LGW and CVG-AMS with 757, I wonder if F9 will try something like this.
 
kyrone
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:39 pm

I would be surprised if they chose to go via KEF. Costs are high and the weather, particular during their long winter season, is quite bad. I would think they would pick a lower cost market in Europe, with higher traffic volumes. N.E. United States to Ireland may be a route that they could pack solid.
 
tphuang
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Maybe they should actually try to see if they can make transcon work on their model before trying out something like transatlantic. Although I guess there are certain destination without premium demand that can be tried like PDL or the Canaries. You never really know what goes on in the mind of the F9 route planners.
 
superjeff
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:04 pm

[
Inhumane.[/quote]

Very inhuman. But in a society where so many people (many without the money needed to do so i.e. us lovely millennials) want to travel to far off distances for cheap...this could be big. Think families willing to save a couple hundred dollars to sacrifice comfort. Idk...I love my frontier but I also tell people it’s an airline for people with piss poor credit scores. I think in this current economy, this could work.

However I don’t see transatlantic as a use for these planes. I’m thinking Hawaii from denver and vegas and the Caribbean/South America from western cities.

Excited to see the XLR in F9 colors...and to hopefully have someone make an FSX version too.[/quote]
I

Not sure about Hawaii. In reading this thread, I note that nobody mentioned Allegiant. They flew 757's to Hawaii and lost their shirts. Granted the 321 is a more efficient airplane, but with the U.S. Three, Alaska, Hawaiian, and now Southwest flying to Hawaii, it will be pretty hard for F9 to be successful, IMHO. 28" pitch for 6 hours, non reclining seats, fees for everything - I can't see it. Hawaii is pretty competitive, and I don't think that F9 has many dedicated "fans".
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:07 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
Even if Denver were at sea level, Europe is too far.

International will need destination + alternate (and maybe a second alternate) + 45min gas.


Denver to Oslo Noway via great circle is 4036 nautical miles. The A321LR is sold at a maximum range of 4000 nm, and the A321XLR is advertised at 4700nm


Part of the problem is in winter the winds can get very strong. In 2012 a number of B752 flying to Europe had to be diverted on their flights back to USA.

Featured Map for 19 January 2012:United 757 Trans-Atlantic Diversions
http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=EWR-BCN/BFS/TXL/BHX/CPH/DUB/EDI/FRA/GLA/LIS/LHR/MAD/MAN/OSL/CDG/SNN/ARN/STR,c:blue,,IAD-AMS/CDG,c:red,YQX,YYR,KEF,YHZ,ALB,SWF&R=o:noext,3200nm%40EWR&MS=bm&MR=540&MX=720x360&PM=b:disc7%2b%22%25U%2212&PC=%23e1cd00&PW=2&RS=outline&RC=%2300ff00
 
ethernal
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:15 pm

upperdeckfan wrote:
Claiming that long-haul by LCC's has not been profitable doesn't mean it will be that way forever. The only "true" example of a significant LCC long haul operation in the last few years has been DY. Other so called LCC's are subsidiaries of legacy groups such as Level and Joon. All of these have been flying widebodies, with the likes of TP, EI and TS starting to fly narrowbodies across the pond we'll see how TATL air traffic take shape in the next few years.

Time will tell what F9 will do with 18 XLR's, I frankly doubt they will only be used for transcon and Hawaii


Well, there is a fundamental issue with long-haul LCC (not saying that over time the envelope does not expand).

Short to medium haul (<6 hours) low cost point-to-point carriers are inherently disruptive. They are disruptive because they have an inherent cost structure benefit over legacies - even independent of cabin density and crew costs.

The reality is that on a 1500 mile sector, having people take two flights (hub and spoke model) is expensive. It takes longer (which means lower yields), you have to fly more miles in the air as you are not doing direct great circle, you have to pay crew for two taxis and boardings, you have to pay fuel costs to climb and get to altitude... and so on. Even if LCC had the same cabins as legacies and faced similar crew costs, their operations would still be 20-30% cheaper than a hub and spoke model (the extra 20%+ on top of that - driven by cabin config, crew costs, and to a lesser extent fleet / operations simplicity - is gravy).

But that relative degree of disruption decreases as sector length increases. The cost of adding 400 miles and an extra stop on a 1200 mile journey is significant. The cost of adding 400 miles and an extra stop on a 5000 mile journey is much less (proportionally) and generally outweighed by demand aggregation benefits.

While obviously these planes are not doing ULH, long flight sectors (say >10 hours, although this boundary keeps getting pushed out) actually becomes MORE expensive because of the need to carry extra fuel and weight of the frame. It is cheaper to fly two 4000 nmi segments (on a plane designed for that) than one non-stop 8000 nmi segment.

So, long story short, the competitive advantage of LCC non-stop point-to-point model decreases significantly with longer haul operations. Further, the demand generation from nonstops go down the farther the flight is (if I can now get somewhere half the price and in 2 hours rather than 4-5 hours, demand goes up significantly... but if I am going to save 3 hours with a nonstop on a 12 hour flight and maybe 10-15% cheaper, demand generation is much more muted).
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:23 pm

While in no way profitable, obviously, a relatively "badly" run airline like Primera managed to fill an A321 successfully to IAD, YYZ, BOS and EWR from STN, and CDG. Yes, October 2018 will tell us how well it went.
The lowest load factor for the STN flights was a one off 75% on the inaugural IAD-STN, other than that they were consistently operating at 95%-100% capacity.

But with a bit of better planning (no 150 year old National 757's), somebody might be able to pull it off.
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:41 pm

VS11 wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
enilria wrote:
F9 is no longer a DEN hub carrier. They could operate almost anything. Since Indigo had access to all of WOW's financials, I could easily see F9 doing 2/week to KEF from a handful of U.S. airports. Part of WOW's problem is that it is much easier to sell in your own country and the traffic was certainly not coming from Iceland. Beyond KEF, who knows? Stansted if B6 goes to LGW is also an option.


You do realize as Indigo had access to WOW's financials as a bidder/buyer they cannot use those figures, crew data & scheduling information to start service on those routes. As they chose not to buy them if they did that they would face the same lawsuits Mesa Airlines did after they bid for both Aloha, then Hawaiian & used the information to undercut them. Result Aloha & Hawaiian entered lawsuits over it. Aloha while in bankrupcy over it had to drop the case. Hawaiian won a big settlement. Mesa left the market. If Aloha creditors had not dropped theirs. The creditors would have been able to recover more money. Very short sighted.


Flying to KEF is not the same as setting a hub there. Also, by the time these XLR are flying with Indigo Partners airlines, it would be several years since whatever non-compete agreements Indigo Partners signed so doubtful they would be still in effect and/or enforceable. There is no way WOW can prove they went out of business because Frontier/Wizz started flying out of KEF several years after WOW went bankrupt.

I am well aware that they cannot use the data, but such agreements are virtually unenforceable. Particularly with WOW no longer flying there would be no way to establish harm. So, I have to completely disagree with your assessment.

From a broader brush, if you look at another company's financial statements, write nothing down or record any of it, sign an NDA, and then add the same routes that were profitable there is very little that can be done about it because the NDA cannot preclude future competition between the parties because that would be anti-competitive. What occurs in your head is not subject to legal concern. If you read the details of the Mesa-Hawaiian case the lawsuit was lost because Mesa retained Hawaiian financial documents and then deleted them after subpoena. That's not the same thing and was an indication of guilt.
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:43 pm

kyrone wrote:
I would be surprised if they chose to go via KEF. Costs are high and the weather, particular during their long winter season, is quite bad. I would think they would pick a lower cost market in Europe, with higher traffic volumes. N.E. United States to Ireland may be a route that they could pack solid.

The problem with Ireland is that it is on the radar of EI and D8. It is also very seasonal. I would argue it is more seasonal than Iceland because Iceland has developed a Winter tourist product. Ireland definitely does not have one.

Step 1 of this would be for Indigo to go to Iceland and ask for incentives because their tourism industry is taking it hard this Summer from the loss of WOW. I bet they would come to the table with a lot of money.
tphuang wrote:
Maybe they should actually try to see if they can make transcon work on their model before trying out something like transatlantic. Although I guess there are certain destination without premium demand that can be tried like PDL or the Canaries. You never really know what goes on in the mind of the F9 route planners.

I would argue that transcon is much more competitive than transatlantic. So I'm not sure I would argue one leads to the other. Frankly, I would say transatlantic is easier than Hawaii at this point. I really think the 2/week model and low prices opens up a lot of stuff that would work. You don't need connects if you can operate 2/week and fill the plane. The question is only how many of those markets are there. MIDT says a lot of WW markets were 50% local at 4 and 5 per week. At least in the Summer.
 
Varsity1
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:26 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
Even if Denver were at sea level, Europe is too far.

International will need destination + alternate (and maybe a second alternate) + 45min gas.


Denver to Oslo Noway via great circle is 4036 nautical miles. The A321LR is sold at a maximum range of 4000 nm, and the A321XLR is advertised at 4700nm


Part of the problem is in winter the winds can get very strong. In 2012 a number of B752 flying to Europe had to be diverted on their flights back to USA.

Featured Map for 19 January 2012:United 757 Trans-Atlantic Diversions
http://www.gcmap.com/map?P=EWR-BCN/BFS/TXL/BHX/CPH/DUB/EDI/FRA/GLA/LIS/LHR/MAD/MAN/OSL/CDG/SNN/ARN/STR,c:blue,,IAD-AMS/CDG,c:red,YQX,YYR,KEF,YHZ,ALB,SWF&R=o:noext,3200nm%40EWR&MS=bm&MR=540&MX=720x360&PM=b:disc7%2b%22%25U%2212&PC=%23e1cd00&PW=2&RS=outline&RC=%2300ff00


It's a lot more complicated than just gcmap ranges.

Getting a nat track with .80 assigned for example burns more fuel. International derived alternates, weather, loads, runway analysis. All that stuff pilots are paid for, but A.net fanboy's know nothing about.
"PPRuNe will no longer allow discussions regarding Etihad Airlines, its employees, executives, agents, or other representatives. Such threads will be deleted." - ME3 thug airlines suing anyone who brings negative information public..
 
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dabpit
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:28 pm

How about MCO to South America? GRU, GIG, BSB, SCL, EZE. Connect into the JetSmart network that Indigo is building in Chile.
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LovePrunesAnet
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 2:28 pm

I'd think F9's east coast hub at Raleigh Durham is much larger than PHL or anything in the Northeast, and that with the 30 cities they do from RDU that airport would make the most sense for Europe flights, if that's what this order is for...
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:07 pm

tphuang wrote:
Maybe they should actually try to see if they can make transcon work on their model before trying out something like transatlantic. Although I guess there are certain destination without premium demand that can be tried like PDL or the Canaries. You never really know what goes on in the mind of the F9 route planners.


The entire reason for the purchase (at least for F9) was actually for them to be able to do transcon with a sardine packed NEO without taking a payload penalty. Hawaii and "long haul" would just be the icing.
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spinotter
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:19 pm

[*]
Varsity1 wrote:
Triple connecting on a transatlantic ULCC?

Inhumane.


If the price is right, humanity flies out the window. But do people really think that F9 will launch Europe before long-distance Mexico, Caribbean, upper South America, Hawaii?
 
Fex180
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:37 pm

I could also see F9 making a go at thin / lower demand transcon routes. PVD/ PWM / BUF to LAX / SFO / SEA
 
Abeam79
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:10 pm

enilria wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Enilria, I always truly respect your opinions and posts, but flying over the pond with the product frontier offer and density is dead on arrival. You need not to look further than the experiment of Primera air. They were basically the equivalent, maybe even a little better product I would even add. And look how that ended up when they started flying over the pond. Frontier does not have relevant network on the mid west or eastern seaboard. If you don’t have that you’re guaranteed to fail. Just like Primera air. They had no relevant network on either end of the pond. B6 on the other hand, has a huge network in the cities they will fly transatlantic from, JFK and Boston. Plus they have an expansive codeshare network that could help them on the other side of the pond. Low-cost narrow body transatlantic flying needs to have a special secret sauce all of which B6 have. A lower price Point, better product than the competitors, and lower cost, and a very good premium product.
So if anything, frontier will use this more for transcontinental , maybe a few hops over to Hawaii, and maybe Denver a little bit further deeper into the Caribbean or Central America or northern South America if that. If you look at frontier they start a route and quickly give it up as soon as the market realizes they’re only good for one shot. Then they Move on. Certain markets work well for them like Orlando, because a lot of the flights they do are bearable for a couple of hours.
It’s all decent speculation but I would not bet on it that’s for sure .

You do realize that I didn’t write the quoted article? Having said that, I don’t think it’s crazy at all. They just need a market big enough to fill the plane. Coupling it with Wizz is interesting.

With F9’s 2/week model they are using I think a lot more things start to work.

Yes but it’s still not enough. Transatlantic isn’t a whimsical route decision. As I’m sure you know getting the xlr is just one peice of a bigger puzzle to put together to go over the pond. They need slots, even in secondary, markets like kef you need gate slots, which are expensive and I doubt a frugal carrier like F9 will want to do, etops is of course the big one, a multi year investment. Tax regulations and training requirements and scheduling, on and on, all things they would need to invest on a venture with their product offering which has a history of not working over the Atlantic and F9’s history of going in and out of markets before the booking season exipires, doesn’t seem like a worthy investment for the likes of F9 if they have a history of pulling back quickly. If you go over the pond you have to be willing to tough it out at least a few years to make up for at least some of the return on investment. Yes technically it’s possible like you said, probable is very unlikely. Just my .02 cents.
But yes I know that references you posted was not from you, also it’s a blog which I follow and only 30% of it usually comes to fruition. It is a nice convo piece and again, I always respect your observations and posts. And thank you for the scheduling updates! Those are great!
 
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FlightLevel360
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:33 pm

this is a no go for me.

No in flight entertainment and 28 inch seat pitch on a transatlantic crossing? Thank you, next.
To me, it will always be:
- Bombardier CSeries
- Airbus A321neoLR and A321neoXLR
- EMBRACER ERJ-170, ERJ-175, ERJ-190, and ERJ-195
- MITSUBUSHI MRJ

Anti narrowbody-long range-twinjet gang. Long live the A380 and 747!
 
airzona11
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:36 pm

Legacy airlines can flex to Economy basic. Regardless of how efficient the plane is, long haul is expensive to operate. ~230 seats on A321 helps. If they do fly this, my guess is this very limited to a few routes.
 
TWA1985
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:41 pm

I could even see them starting TATL flights from ORD.
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PacoMartin
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:01 pm

Varsity1 wrote:
It's a lot more complicated than just gcmap ranges.

Getting a nat track with .80 assigned for example burns more fuel. International derived alternates, weather, loads, runway analysis. All that stuff pilots are paid for, but A.net fanboy's know nothing about.


I am not pretending that it isn't more complicated, but if the Great Circle is 4036 nm and the advertised range is 4700 nm that should be enough of a margin to cover a whole lot of real world calculations.

I was rejecting the idea that was proposed earlier that Denver is automatically too far from Europe.
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:22 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
enilria wrote:
Abeam79 wrote:
Enilria, I always truly respect your opinions and posts, but flying over the pond with the product frontier offer and density is dead on arrival. You need not to look further than the experiment of Primera air. They were basically the equivalent, maybe even a little better product I would even add. And look how that ended up when they started flying over the pond. Frontier does not have relevant network on the mid west or eastern seaboard. If you don’t have that you’re guaranteed to fail. Just like Primera air. They had no relevant network on either end of the pond. B6 on the other hand, has a huge network in the cities they will fly transatlantic from, JFK and Boston. Plus they have an expansive codeshare network that could help them on the other side of the pond. Low-cost narrow body transatlantic flying needs to have a special secret sauce all of which B6 have. A lower price Point, better product than the competitors, and lower cost, and a very good premium product.
So if anything, frontier will use this more for transcontinental , maybe a few hops over to Hawaii, and maybe Denver a little bit further deeper into the Caribbean or Central America or northern South America if that. If you look at frontier they start a route and quickly give it up as soon as the market realizes they’re only good for one shot. Then they Move on. Certain markets work well for them like Orlando, because a lot of the flights they do are bearable for a couple of hours.
It’s all decent speculation but I would not bet on it that’s for sure .

You do realize that I didn’t write the quoted article? Having said that, I don’t think it’s crazy at all. They just need a market big enough to fill the plane. Coupling it with Wizz is interesting.

With F9’s 2/week model they are using I think a lot more things start to work.

Yes but it’s still not enough. Transatlantic isn’t a whimsical route decision. As I’m sure you know getting the xlr is just one peice of a bigger puzzle to put together to go over the pond. They need slots, even in secondary, markets like kef you need gate slots, which are expensive and I doubt a frugal carrier like F9 will want to do, etops is of course the big one, a multi year investment. Tax regulations and training requirements and scheduling, on and on, all things they would need to invest on a venture with their product offering which has a history of not working over the Atlantic and F9’s history of going in and out of markets before the booking season exipires, doesn’t seem like a worthy investment for the likes of F9 if they have a history of pulling back quickly. If you go over the pond you have to be willing to tough it out at least a few years to make up for at least some of the return on investment. Yes technically it’s possible like you said, probable is very unlikely. Just my .02 cents.
But yes I know that references you posted was not from you, also it’s a blog which I follow and only 30% of it usually comes to fruition. It is a nice convo piece and again, I always respect your observations and posts. And thank you for the scheduling updates! Those are great!

Thanks for the compliments.

Keep in mind they also own Wizz Air which has amassed slots across Europe and places like KEF are now quite easy to get slots. When WOW was operating that was different. Sure, they can't go to LGW, but I doubt they want to. It's also worth noting that this was a single order from Indigo that also included the same model for Wizz Air. That isn't a coincidence I don't think.

F9 already has ETOPS 60 or 90 for their DEN-CUN flights which require it to avoid the long way around the Gulf, so I'm not sure it would require beyond 2021 or 2022 at worst. WN was just an outlier, as they are with many things. I agree that if F9 adds Atlantic they will flit in and out of markets like a hummingbird, but that's not so bad. I imagine they would manage it like they do in the USA with a plane based in KEF, for example, that bounces back and forth to the USA on 2/week patterns. If one fails they swap in another KEF route. I don't think it is that crazy.
 
caverunner17
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:50 pm

rbavfan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Since this could be a major strategy change for Frontier, I think this has to justify its own thread. F9 will take 18 A321XLR.

With the acquisition of the A321XLR, Frontier will have the ability to take on transatlantic routes to the U.K. and Western continental Europe. From Frontier’s main hub in Denver, Colorado we can see that many transatlantic destinations are within reach: Could we see Frontier offering flights to Portugal, France, or Spain? Or perhaps some Scandinavian cities like Oslo, Copenhagen or Stockholm? The possibilities are wide-ranging – especially if Frontier uses a departure city closer to the East Coast.

Again, this is just speculation based on aircraft range. However, if Frontier can make a profit flying transatlantic then their CEO might just go for it: “We’ll fly em where we can make the most money” – Barry Biffle, CEO of Frontier Airlines.

If transatlantic disruption is on the agenda for Frontier, it will be entering a fairly crowded space with legacy carriers dominating routes. The big three U.S. carriers dominate this area, but there is also a strong presence from the European legacy airlines.


https://simpleflying.com/frontier-trans ... ruption-2/


T-O from DEN in the summer could make DEN-LHR a non starter due to High altitude/hot climate.


Have any of you actually visited Denver? Daily average highs in the summer are in the upper 80's to low 90's in the middle of the day/early afternoon. Those temps drop dramatically when the sun starts to set. If you had a 8PM flight on a day with a 95deg high, the temp would only be 83deg. A 97deg high is 85 at 8PM. Make it an 8:30 or 9PM flight and that temp is in the 70's.

Given this would be F9 originating and they'd only be relying on US side connections, that would allow plenty of time for late afternoon connections at Denver for a noonish arrival in Europe. Denver also has 16,000 foot runways, so unless you're tire speed limited and couldn't take off fully loaded due to the altitude (like the 767), there shouldn't be a reason why the heat would be a significant factor here.
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:45 pm

caverunner17 wrote:
rbavfan wrote:
enilria wrote:
Since this could be a major strategy change for Frontier, I think this has to justify its own thread. F9 will take 18 A321XLR.

With the acquisition of the A321XLR, Frontier will have the ability to take on transatlantic routes to the U.K. and Western continental Europe. From Frontier’s main hub in Denver, Colorado we can see that many transatlantic destinations are within reach: Could we see Frontier offering flights to Portugal, France, or Spain? Or perhaps some Scandinavian cities like Oslo, Copenhagen or Stockholm? The possibilities are wide-ranging – especially if Frontier uses a departure city closer to the East Coast.

Again, this is just speculation based on aircraft range. However, if Frontier can make a profit flying transatlantic then their CEO might just go for it: “We’ll fly em where we can make the most money” – Barry Biffle, CEO of Frontier Airlines.

If transatlantic disruption is on the agenda for Frontier, it will be entering a fairly crowded space with legacy carriers dominating routes. The big three U.S. carriers dominate this area, but there is also a strong presence from the European legacy airlines.


https://simpleflying.com/frontier-trans ... ruption-2/


T-O from DEN in the summer could make DEN-LHR a non starter due to High altitude/hot climate.


Have any of you actually visited Denver? Daily average highs in the summer are in the upper 80's to low 90's in the middle of the day/early afternoon. Those temps drop dramatically when the sun starts to set. If you had a 8PM flight on a day with a 95deg high, the temp would only be 83deg. A 97deg high is 85 at 8PM. Make it an 8:30 or 9PM flight and that temp is in the 70's.

Given this would be F9 originating and they'd only be relying on US side connections, that would allow plenty of time for late afternoon connections at Denver for a noonish arrival in Europe. Denver also has 16,000 foot runways, so unless you're tire speed limited and couldn't take off fully loaded due to the altitude (like the 767), there shouldn't be a reason why the heat would be a significant factor here.

There is WAY TOO MUCH discussion of DEN-Europe in this thread. I only posted that section because it laid out how the aircraft could be used for Atlantic. They will not fly it from DEN IMHO. Maybe DEN-Hawaii. The point is that they can fly it from the East to Europe.

The people who say this plane is only for transcon I think are wrong. I'm not even sure it will be used for that at all. I agree with other posters that the regular NEO should do transcon with a dense config and bags on all but the most problematic days. F9 is not going to overpay for a Ferarri like the XLR unless they plan to push it to its limits. It would be majorly wasted on transcon.
 
jetmatt777
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:05 pm

I think F9 could make it work. Use the airplane on a milk run scenario, you get to capture two markets and disguise the fuel stop. A one-stop same plane service could be done, as they already do this in some markets anyway (DEN-OKC-MCO, etc.)

DEN-PVD-LHR
ABQ-IND-LHR etc.
Lighten up while you still can, don't even try to understand, just find a place to make your stand and take it easy
 
mattyfitzg
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:30 pm

Abeam79 wrote:
Enilria, I always truly respect your opinions and posts, but flying over the pond with the product frontier offer and density is dead on arrival. You need not to look further than the experiment of Primera air. They were basically the equivalent, maybe even a little better product I would even add. And look how that ended up when they started flying over the pond. Frontier does not have relevant network on the mid west or eastern seaboard. If you don’t have that you’re guaranteed to fail. Just like Primera air. They had no relevant network on either end of the pond. B6 on the other hand, has a huge network in the cities they will fly transatlantic from, JFK and Boston. Plus they have an expansive codeshare network that could help them on the other side of the pond.


I think it's unfair to shoot down PF like that. Due to late delivery of the NEOs/Bad planning, Primera didn't use their own metal on the routes for nearly 2 months, using ancient National Airlines 757-200's to operate on their behalf, which were not only costly, but unreliable, meaning their EU261 compensation claims were through the roof.

Had they had their aircraft delivered on-time I strongly believe the outcome may have been different.
I think Frontier would have a lot more success if they had an attempt at something similar.
 
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johnboy
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:32 pm

For the old timers:

Just thinking what a field day Mariner (RIP) would’ve had shrugging his shoulders at speculation in this thread.

:cloudnine:
 
jfk777
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:01 pm

TWA1985 wrote:
I could even see them starting TATL flights from ORD.



Not if AA, United and Norwegian have anything to say about it. Frontier would be nuts trying to fly to Europe from Chicago. They would be better from a city like Baltimore. A321XLR is leading lambs to their slaughter.
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:03 pm

Here’s a quote where F9 says Hawaii and “international” are on the table. F9 already has nonstops coast to coast.

"The A321XLR will enable Frontier to offer coast-to-coast service and explore exciting international and domestic opportunities, such as Hawaii, while continuing to deliver 'Low Fares Done Right' to our customers," said Barry Biffle, president and CEO of Frontier Airlines, in a statement.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... i.amp.html
 
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Frontier14
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:59 pm

dabpit wrote:
How about MCO to South America? GRU, GIG, BSB, SCL, EZE. Connect into the JetSmart network that Indigo is building in Chile.


:checkmark: :checkmark: :checkmark: Based on some of the more recent F9 forays into the Caribbean, It is potentially feasible that some of the major resort islands currently unserved may play a role in the usage of the XLR 321. Whether Frontier considers trans Atlantic is anybody's guess. No question that having access to the WOW books gave the Indigo bean counters some valuable information as to opportunities. As some have said, Frontier will drop in and out of destinations if they do not make :dollarsign: on the route.

The potential connectivity with JetSmart (Indigo's airline in Chile) is probably pretty real in the future. Frontier currently does market their code share with Volaris to many Mexico destinations out of DEN. Albeit, we do not know if this has been successful or not.

Frontier 14
 
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Acey
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Thu Jun 20, 2019 11:07 pm

TWA772LR wrote:
I was thinking more like DEN to DR and the like.


Sounds like child's play for a 189-seat 738, let alone an A321XLR.
If a man hasn't discovered something that he will die for, he isn't fit to live. -- Martin Luther King, Jr.
 
N809FR
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:35 am

johnboy wrote:
For the old timers:

Just thinking what a field day Mariner (RIP) would’ve had shrugging his shoulders at speculation in this thread.

:cloudnine:


Miss seeing him in the F9 threads, truly one of my favorite posters from this website.
 
PVD757
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:39 am

PVD-LAX would be able to be served with this aircraft type. No idea if they’d do it but one can hope!
 
rph99
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:10 am

Can’t wait to see F9 take on Hawaii from Denver. With UA’s fares being rather pricey, and SW’s routing requiring a west coast connection...they could make it work.

***Could also see them filling the gap between Hawaii and the Midwest (AUS, STL, MCI, MKE). Thoughts?
 
impilot
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:39 am

rph99 wrote:
Can’t wait to see F9 take on Hawaii from Denver. With UA’s fares being rather pricey, and SW’s routing requiring a west coast connection...they could make it work.

***Could also see them filling the gap between Hawaii and the Midwest (AUS, STL, MCI, MKE). Thoughts?

Honestly it depends on the luck with the dartboard on the day they have the meeting to figure out where to employ them. All the guesses and discussions until then are futile.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:05 am

enilria wrote:
Here’s a quote where F9 says Hawaii and “international” are on the table. F9 already has nonstops coast to coast.

"The A321XLR will enable Frontier to offer coast-to-coast service and explore exciting international and domestic opportunities, such as Hawaii, while continuing to deliver 'Low Fares Done Right' to our customers," said Barry Biffle, president and CEO of Frontier Airlines, in a statement.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... i.amp.html


While they already have nonstop coast-to-coast, there's also this quote:

Barry Biffle, chief executive of Frontier, said the addition of the long-range variant would enable it to fly from east to west coast in the US and reach Hawaii with a full density, as well as exploring international opportunities in Europe and South America.

We cannot go coast-to-coast in the United States. The furthest we can fly is Philadelphia to Las Vegas. The range of this aircraft enables us to go from New York, Boston and Miami to all points in the western US and Hawaii.


https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... ers-order/
@DadCelo
 
AaronPGH
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:26 am

Looking forward to seeing which TATL routes F9 will add and then drop every other week. I'm sure this will go well.
 
sunking737
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:50 am

Does F9 even want to do transatlantic or Hawaii?? What domestic routes could they use the XLR?? Alaska, more Mexico, Central AM ??/
I'm a SUNDUCK......Worked for RC & SY @ MSP
 
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enilria
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:57 pm

gatibosgru wrote:
enilria wrote:
Here’s a quote where F9 says Hawaii and “international” are on the table. F9 already has nonstops coast to coast.

"The A321XLR will enable Frontier to offer coast-to-coast service and explore exciting international and domestic opportunities, such as Hawaii, while continuing to deliver 'Low Fares Done Right' to our customers," said Barry Biffle, president and CEO of Frontier Airlines, in a statement.

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/new ... i.amp.html


While they already have nonstop coast-to-coast, there's also this quote:

Barry Biffle, chief executive of Frontier, said the addition of the long-range variant would enable it to fly from east to west coast in the US and reach Hawaii with a full density, as well as exploring international opportunities in Europe and South America.

We cannot go coast-to-coast in the United States. The furthest we can fly is Philadelphia to Las Vegas. The range of this aircraft enables us to go from New York, Boston and Miami to all points in the western US and Hawaii.


https://www.routesonline.com/news/29/br ... ers-order/

They actually fly RDU-SAN which is even further than PHL-LAS. They have flown DEN-PUJ which is further than JFK-LAX (2600+ miles). They have also flown MCO-SFO/LAX and DEN-LIR which are all transcon distance.
 
hiflyeras
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:45 pm

rph99 wrote:
Can’t wait to see F9 take on Hawaii from Denver. With UA’s fares being rather pricey, and SW’s routing requiring a west coast connection...they could make it work.

***Could also see them filling the gap between Hawaii and the Midwest (AUS, STL, MCI, MKE). Thoughts?


This could put a dent in WN's feed for their Hawaii flights. AS survives with local boards out of California and I imagine WN would too...but it's WN that would take any hit, not HA or AS, should they start mid-con Hawaii.
 
astuteman
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 4:13 pm

PacoMartin wrote:
Varsity1 wrote:
It's a lot more complicated than just gcmap ranges.

Getting a nat track with .80 assigned for example burns more fuel. International derived alternates, weather, loads, runway analysis. All that stuff pilots are paid for, but A.net fanboy's know nothing about.


I am not pretending that it isn't more complicated, but if the Great Circle is 4036 nm and the advertised range is 4700 nm that should be enough of a margin to cover a whole lot of real world calculations.

I was rejecting the idea that was proposed earlier that Denver is automatically too far from Europe.


The issue with Denver is more likely to be its altitude, at 5 500ft.
The latest A321NEO ACAP, whilst demonstrating the significant benefits of the sharklets in terms of field performance, shows that an A321NEO can't get out of Denver at better than about 91t - 92t TOW, at ISA temperature and conditions, even on 16R/34L which is 16 000ft long.
And whilst that is close to the A321NEO's MTOW, that plane only has a range of 3 600Nm still air with an 18t payload.
The XLR won't better that by a meaningful amount IMO

So real world of about 3 000Nm with winds, diversions etc will be about it from Denver.
Posted as a big fan of the XLR, by the way.
But we need to be realistic

Rgds
 
arcticcruiser
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Re: F9 Could Use A321XLR Order for Transatlantic

Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:34 pm

Acey wrote:
DEN-HNL is less than 3,000 nm and Airbus claims 4,700 nm. Despite whatever satantic config F9 does I imagine it would be able to do it, despite DEN conditions.


Nope. I have seen the numbers out of DEN.

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