VV
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Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 10:19 am

IAG's announcement on the recent LiO for up to 200 737 MAX triggered a lot of discussion.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1425047

In addition, one IAG executive said recently that the LoI is to break IAG from Airbus "captivity".

My question is quite simple, "Considering IAG's current and future route network, Is there any reason to believe they could be interested by the NMA?"

Obviously the follow-up question is, "What would be the size of the initial order by IAG if they are interested?"
 
jghealey
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:30 am

Almost certainly not... aside from some high-demand British Airways routes I can't really see a place for it in their network. Most of the former 767 shorthaul routes have been taken over by A321neo with some also now operated by 777/787. The A321neo will do the job fine in nearly all circumstances for IAG.
 
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flee
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:36 am

Never say never - it depends on what the NMA's actual capabilities and economics are. However, IAG should be in no hurry to order them - just wait for the operational data to come in before making a decision.
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:10 pm

Should BA use B787/a350 on premium regional route like FRA/AMS/DUB/MAD/CDG?
 
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CPHFF
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:24 pm

well, perhaps we could at least wait and discuss issues like this until:

1) Boeing launch the aircraft (if)
2) Boeing release the specifications

Then, we should discuss "will Airline XX consider Boeings new BXXX

end of rant
Unable to update my profife photo since 2014
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:39 pm

jghealey wrote:
Almost certainly not... aside from some high-demand British Airways routes I can't really see a place for it in their network. Most of the former 767 shorthaul routes have been taken over by A321neo with some also now operated by 777/787. The A321neo will do the job fine in nearly all circumstances for IAG.


It seems like ignoring that LHR is slot-constrained is a fatal analytical error.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:55 pm

From the soon to be expanded DUB and the opportunity to upgauge slots at LHR with the intent to then shift some of that capacity to TATL, I would think BA would be an early and rabid buyer of the NMA. Let us also talk about IB, from MAD I would expect the NMA to be excellent for opening up Florida as well as a range of other routes (I arbitrarily used 4,000nm as the range circle):
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?R=4000nm%40mad

I personally will be shocked if IAG isn't one of the launch customers.
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musman9853
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 12:56 pm

Could be a good way to open up new 2nd tier cities in the us further inland.
Welcome to the City Beautiful.
 
Andy33
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:09 pm

lightsaber wrote:
I personally will be shocked if IAG isn't one of the launch customers.

I would be shocked if they were, not because I think they have no use for the plane, nor because I think they will never buy any - they very likely will have some in due course. But in recent years IAG airlines have been very careful not to be launch customers for anything more significant than minor tweaks in existing designs. This attitude probably dates back to BA's unhappy time as one of the launch customers for the 772 (non-ER). Now the 772ER has gone on to be an outstanding success and make masses of money for the airline, and even the three remaining non-ER planes earn their keep, but initially reliability, especially engine reliability, was dreadful.
 
tphuang
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:14 pm

For the right price, it's a distinct possibility. Also depends on how aggressively Airbus sell a321s. After all, iag would only need so many narrow long haul planes.
 
behramjee
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:31 pm

If BA order the smaller 225 seater version then realistically the aircraft from LHR can fly 4000nm nonstop with a full payload of pax + cargo.

This means westbound it can fly up to Calgary, southbound up to Luanda and eastbound up to Mumbai.

It is the perfect option to replace the B788 on routes under 9 hours which currently do not average 80-85% SF on an annual basis. Plus also during the low winter season it can replace the B777 on medium haul routes.

As far as IB is concerned out of MAD, the NMA can fly up to MIA/MSP westbound, DAR/WDH southbound and up to DEL eastbound. So yes for the medium demand U.S. east coast cities, this aircraft would do fine for IB.
 
fcogafa
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 1:56 pm

Walsh wasn't impressed in 2017, although in the same article, to illustrate how things can change, he also said:

Willie Walsh is lukewarm to the prospect of Boeing’s proposed all-new middle-of-the-market aircraft, which he believes is coming late .....Walsh dismisses Boeing’s 737 Max as it “doesn’t have the range and flexibility, from our point of view”. However the A321LR could be operated by British Airways, Iberia and, Walsh adds, he’d “be amazed" if Level isn’t using the A321LR.


https://www.flightglobal.com/news/artic ... sh-441667/
 
frmrCapCadet
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 2:01 pm

The unavoidable insanity of having to order planes 5-10 year is the future is largely mediated by switching to different models in the future. Those 200 Maxes could easily be switched to NMAs, or less likely 787s. 380s were switched to 330s, and it seemed a logical switch. And rumors increase that the NSA may be a radical departure from what is built now.
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jghealey
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:22 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jghealey wrote:
Almost certainly not... aside from some high-demand British Airways routes I can't really see a place for it in their network. Most of the former 767 shorthaul routes have been taken over by A321neo with some also now operated by 777/787. The A321neo will do the job fine in nearly all circumstances for IAG.


It seems like ignoring that LHR is slot-constrained is a fatal analytical error.

Just because LHR is slot constrained doesn't mean there's infinite demand; while this may not be the best way to judge it I fly BA a lot on shorthaul (on all the aircraft types - A319,320,321) and their planes are rarely full. Also, the A321neo has just 20 or so fewer seats than the 767 (and potentially 797) so the capacity decrease isn't huge - it's far easier them to stick with the A321neo rather than having to add a new aircraft type. BA likely wouldn't order enough of them to justify adding the new aircraft type and I'm assuming it would not share commonality with other Boeing models.
 
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Channex757
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 3:45 pm

If you take a long look at the aircraft that is rumoured to be coming out, it's a distinct possible for IAG. As A330s come off lease at those who have them, downsizing a little might be attractive.

BA itself would potentially want a more tailored solution to capacity than A321s and the odd 772ER being abused on the network. Even Gatwick has possibilities when the 772ER(GE90) fleet starts drawdown.

Never say never. You should all have been taught this at Paris.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 4:40 pm

Andy33 wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
I personally will be shocked if IAG isn't one of the launch customers.

I would be shocked if they were, not because I think they have no use for the plane, nor because I think they will never buy any - they very likely will have some in due course. But in recent years IAG airlines have been very careful not to be launch customers for anything more significant than minor tweaks in existing designs. This attitude probably dates back to BA's unhappy time as one of the launch customers for the 772 (non-ER). Now the 772ER has gone on to be an outstanding success and make masses of money for the airline, and even the three remaining non-ER planes earn their keep, but initially reliability, especially engine reliability, was dreadful.

You have a fair point. I would never expect them to be a launch operator again. In fact, I would expect a 3 + year delay after EIS for their service start.

The first 18 months of production have baked in issues (see E-190 as an example). They might not take delivery untill an engine PIP (see PW1100G). But by ordering early, they secure prime delivery slots for after product maturation. They might even specify a reduced empty weight too (very typical for an aircraft of this size to loose weight via PIPs).

But I would still be surprised at not being a launch customer.

Lightsaber
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VV
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Re: Is there any reason to believe IAG would be interested by NMA?

Sat Jun 29, 2019 5:37 pm

Only two months ago nobody expected IAG would be interested by 737 "because it cannot handle containers" rubbish.

Okay, it is still an LoI, but they did show an interest.

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