ABissonnette
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CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:56 am

I've from the Cincinnati area, and have a deep interest in the past of CVG, back in the "Glory Days"
I realize that CVG will never be the same as it was 13 years ago, but I think we can get somewhat close...

I have been wondering/hoping that CVG would be picking up the following airlines and routes, and I was wondering if any of you think that we'd actually get any of these?

So, in my opinion, I think it makes sense for JetBlue to come to CVG, with service to BOS and FLL.
Alaska Airlines to come to CVG, with service to SEA and PDX
For Delta to add Amsterdam as a route from CVG
For Delta or Air Canada to add Vancouver from CVG?
For Iceland Air to add service from CVG to Reykjavík (BTW, pretty much every flight with WOW Air from CVG to Iceland was sold out, or close to it, so that's why I'm expecting to see Iceland Air make a move)

Last year (2018) CVG had a total of more than 8.8 million passengers, and, according to my calculations, that will put CVG at about 10.2 million this year, and 11.5 million in 2020. Those are some pretty good numbers, and so that's why I'm expecting/hoping that the airlines and routes previously mentioned will happen..




What do you all think of CVG's future?




Thanks,
Andrew
Andrew
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BenflysDTW
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:10 am

I feel that CVG-AMS would have been added already, and wouldn’t add too much value besides one more option to Europe. Pretty much every important connecting route is served through CDG as well. YVR doesn’t really have a lot of service to midwestern cities, DTW only has 2 flights/week from June-August, and yes, DTW is a large Delta hub. Icelandair perhaps, but the return of CLE needs to come first, and they may add DTW since it one of the 4 NA routes that WW didn’t cut until they went completely bust.
In general, we should see more from G4,F9, WN. Although simple solution , it’s most likely the case.
 
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southwest1675
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:48 am

CVG-BNA will probably come back on whatever airline.
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TTailedTiger
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 4:58 am

Once enough A220's are in the fleet hopefully some of the large rj's can return to CVG. They need to bring back MSY,BNA,MEM,MKE,CHS,PIT,RIC,JAX.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:07 am

All of those for the time being come across as sexy routes with extremely low probability of happening.

While it’s nice to have a CVG centric view, the airlines are looking at places to add profitable capacity throughout their network. CVG is a priority market for no one other than to the extent that DL wants to keep its grip on the premium and business O&D traffic.
 
flyguy89
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:00 am

ABissonnette wrote:
I've from the Cincinnati area, and have a deep interest in the past of CVG, back in the "Glory Days"
I realize that CVG will never be the same as it was 13 years ago, but I think we can get somewhat close...

I have been wondering/hoping that CVG would be picking up the following airlines and routes, and I was wondering if any of you think that we'd actually get any of these?

So, in my opinion, I think it makes sense for JetBlue to come to CVG, with service to BOS and FLL.

Possible, though I have my doubts since B6 has had ample time to come into the market when there was much less competition, so we shall see...especially since jetBlue is more in retrenchment than growth mode right now.

ABissonnette wrote:
Alaska Airlines to come to CVG, with service to SEA and PDX

AS I would agree is a possibility, but I don't know that CVG-SEA is strong enough to sustain DL and AS. DL barely operates a year-round schedule on the route...granted that's with their sky-high fares but still. PDX is noticeably absent from CVG's portfolio of West Coast flights and I think could work seasonally, but I'm not sure AS would be game enough to give it a shot.
ABissonnette wrote:
For Delta to add Amsterdam as a route from CVG

I think a seasonal CVG-LHR à la PDX would make more sense and would be more likely. We're well covered with the CDG flight, AMS wouldn't bring too much to the table.
ABissonnette wrote:
For Delta or Air Canada to add Vancouver from CVG?

Very doubtful. Really isn't much of a market there. CVG-YUL on AC would be a better, more likely add IMO.
ABissonnette wrote:
For Iceland Air to add service from CVG to Reykjavík (BTW, pretty much every flight with WOW Air from CVG to Iceland was sold out, or close to it, so that's why I'm expecting to see Iceland Air make a move)

Bit of an exaggeration. Load-wise the flights did decent...75ish to 95% depending on the season and we don't have the yield picture there. I don't think Iceland is in the cards, but I think a summer seasonal CVG-FRA on Condor would do well.

ABissonnette wrote:
Last year (2018) CVG had a total of more than 8.8 million passengers, and, according to my calculations, that will put CVG at about 10.2 million this year, and 11.5 million in 2020.

I think your calculations are a bit off. Pax growth at CVG has predictably slowed as the market digests all the capacity that's been added over the past few years...still growing, but growth will be at a smaller rate now. 2019 will see us finally break 9 million...maybe 9.2 or 9.3 million for the year. 10 million will probably be a couple years yet.

The greater Cincinnati region is doing pretty well economically and continues to grow...though nothing gangbusters like Raleigh and Austin. Air service will also continue to grow at a slower but steady clip. The dynamic of CVG's catchment area has changed dramatically with CVG now becoming so affordable to fly from that equilibrium is still settling...people aren't driving to peripheral airports, local population is starting to fly more now that they have access to cheap fares, and now even attracting drive traffic from surrounding airports that CVG used to bleed traffic to. It's an exciting time and will nonetheless be interesting to watch where things go!
 
keithvh2001
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:04 am

CVG (I used to live there) has a solid future, but most of what you listed seems rather unlikely. I'd guess B6 to BOS is most probable.

Some more realistic "goals" - none of these are sexy but they'd serve the CVG passenger base well:

- AA announces non-stop to either PHX or LAX. Mainline into CLT.
- DL upgauges into markets like LGA, DTW, PHL, DCA, etc
- UA continues w/ 2 daily into DEN but they're both mainline year-round (no more Express).
- WN (not sure on their gate situation?) adds places like HOU (Caribbean connections) and BNA.
 
jplatts
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:54 am

flyguy89 wrote:
ABissonnette wrote:
Alaska Airlines to come to CVG, with service to SEA and PDX

AS I would agree is a possibility, but I don't know that CVG-SEA is strong enough to sustain DL and AS. DL barely operates a year-round schedule on the route...granted that's with their sky-high fares but still. PDX is noticeably absent from CVG's portfolio of West Coast flights and I think could work seasonally, but I'm not sure AS would be game enough to give it a shot.


Over 38% of the passengers traveling between SEA and CVG were connecting on airlines other than DL in Q3 2018, which comes out to an average of 98 passengers/day (both directions).

CVG is also the only DL hub or focus city market that isn't served by AS, and both AS and DL already serve ATL, BOS, DTW, LAX, MSP, JFK, RDU, and SLC from SEA.

The eastbound DL SEA-CVG nonstop flight is also currently a redeye flight, and there are some travelers in both the SEA and CVG markets who prefer a daytime nonstop flight to CVG. AS would likely operate a morning departure in the eastbound direction to CVG from SEA if AS adds SEA-CVG nonstop service as ORD, IND, DTW, CMH, and PIT all have morning nonstop departures in the eastbound direction from SEA on AS.

AS might be able to make CVG-SEA nonstop service work since
(a) there is a significant percentage of passengers who currently connect to CVG from SEA on airlines other than DL,
(b) CVG is one of the top domestic destinations not currently served by AS,
(c) AS is able to successfully compete against DL on nonstop routes to other DL hubs/focus cities out of SEA,
(d) there are business ties such as the significant Amazon presence in Northern Kentucky and the Boeing-GE Aviation/CFM International business relationship to support SEA-CVG nonstop service on AS,
(e) AS would be able to offer 1-stop connections to destinations in Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, Alaska, and Hawaii from CVG through SEA if AS adds SEA-CVG nonstop service,
and (f) AS would be able to capture some passengers who aren't loyal to DL in the CVG market if AS adds CVG-SEA nonstop service.

While AS adding CVG-PDX nonstop service is a possibility, AS will likely only serve SEA nonstop from CVG initially if AS adds service to CVG.
 
Delta28L
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 12:20 pm

Amazon will be adding new routes over the next few years as the new hub is being built. CVG has a route to YVR but it’s a cargo only route served by DHL
 
jplatts
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:17 pm

keithvh2001 wrote:
CVG (I used to live there) has a solid future, but most of what you listed seems rather unlikely.
Some more realistic "goals" - none of these are sexy but they'd serve the CVG passenger base well:

- AA announces non-stop to either PHX or LAX. Mainline into CLT.
- WN (not sure on their gate situation?) adds places like HOU (Caribbean connections) and BNA.


WN has more than enough room to expand at CVG, and there are at least 5 additional gates in Concourse A at CVG (A1, A2, A4, A6, and A7) available for use by WN in addition to the 2 gates currently in use by WN at CVG (A3 and A5) if needed.

WN could extend CVG-PHX to year-round nonstop service, and WN can likely make year-round CVG-PHX nonstop service work with O&D on the PHX end and connecting feed from Southern California. There are also some travelers in Greater Phoenix who prefer to fly on WN over other carriers with WN having nonstop service out of PHX to some destinations that AA, DL, UA, or F9 don't serve nonstop from PHX such as BUF, DAL (Love), FLL, HOU (Hobby), LIT, SDF, BNA, and TUL.

I agree that AA adding CVG-LAX and CVG-PHX nonstop service is a possibility as CVG is one of the largest markets that AA doesn't currently serve nonstop from LAX and PHX. AA is also the only US3 carrier that doesn't currently have nonstop service to the West Coast out of CVG.

AA will be short on mainline aircraft in Fall 2019 with the retirement of the MD-80 and the grounding of the 737 MAX 8 planes, but AA will be taking delivery of some A320neo aircraft in 2019 and 2020. WN also currently faces a plane shortage arising from the grounding of the 737 MAX, and WN has had to temporarily drop some nonstop routes until the 737 MAX is back in service.
 
OMAAbound
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 3:54 pm

Isn’t the Majority of traffic into CVG all Cargo these days? I know for example my company sends a daily flight every day, sometimes 2, along with DHL as well which operates several flights to Europe from CVG daily!

OMAA
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flyingfromcvg
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 6:57 pm

Delta would be more likely to do London over AMS from CVG especially if they do start putting some flights into LGW. I don’t see Delta burning an LHR slot pair on CVG, but AMS is even less likely as it would be redundant with CDG for its main purpose and Paris is the bigger destination draw for O&D.
 
jplatts
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 7:22 pm

flyingfromcvg wrote:
Delta would be more likely to do London over AMS from CVG especially if they do start putting some flights into LGW. I don’t see Delta burning an LHR slot pair on CVG, but AMS is even less likely as it would be redundant with CDG for its main purpose and Paris is the bigger destination draw for O&D.


BA adding CVG-LHR nonstop service is a possibility as BA already serves LHR nonstop from some non-AA hub airports in the US such as ATL, AUS, BWI, BOS, DEN, IAH, LAS, BNA, MSY, EWR, PIT, SAN, SFO, SJC, SEA, and IAD. BA would also be able to offer 1-stop connecting service to other European destinations from CVG through LHR if BA adds CVG-LHR nonstop service.

There are also limited connecting opportunities available at LHR on DL's codeshare partners whereas BA can offer 1-stop connections to many destinations in Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Asia from U.S. cities that have nonstop service to LHR on BA or AA.
 
LAXdude1023
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:38 pm

jplatts wrote:
flyingfromcvg wrote:
Delta would be more likely to do London over AMS from CVG especially if they do start putting some flights into LGW. I don’t see Delta burning an LHR slot pair on CVG, but AMS is even less likely as it would be redundant with CDG for its main purpose and Paris is the bigger destination draw for O&D.


BA adding CVG-LHR nonstop service is a possibility as BA already serves LHR nonstop from some non-AA hub airports in the US such as ATL, AUS, BWI, BOS, DEN, IAH, LAS, BNA, MSY, EWR, PIT, SAN, SFO, SJC, SEA, and IAD. BA would also be able to offer 1-stop connecting service to other European destinations from CVG through LHR if BA adds CVG-LHR nonstop service.

There are also limited connecting opportunities available at LHR on DL's codeshare partners whereas BA can offer 1-stop connections to many destinations in Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Asia from U.S. cities that have nonstop service to LHR on BA or AA.


If DL cancels CVG-CDG maybe. As is, no BA wont start CVG.
Religion is the root of evil...
 
ncflyer
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Sun Jun 30, 2019 11:43 pm

cvg Is very nicely served now for the size of the metro area and the fact that many large cities are drivable. Delta has enough of a presence that it will completely keep BA AS AA at bay. There’s a downside to being one of the few abandoned hubs that remains a mini hub. Cvg pax should be appreciative that low cost carriers have penetrated its really the best of both worlds. Some or even most ideas thrown out here are not gonna happen.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:00 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
All of those for the time being come across as sexy routes with extremely low probability of happening.

While it’s nice to have a CVG centric view, the airlines are looking at places to add profitable capacity throughout their network. CVG is a priority market for no one other than to the extent that DL wants to keep its grip on the premium and business O&D traffic.


If Frontier can operate CVG-MSY with an A320 then DL should be embarrassed that they can't operate it with a CR9.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:51 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
Once enough A220's are in the fleet hopefully some of the large rj's can return to CVG. They need to bring back MSY,BNA,MEM,MKE,CHS,PIT,RIC,JAX.


No way DL adds back CVG-RIC/CHS

TTailedTiger wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
All of those for the time being come across as sexy routes with extremely low probability of happening.

While it’s nice to have a CVG centric view, the airlines are looking at places to add profitable capacity throughout their network. CVG is a priority market for no one other than to the extent that DL wants to keep its grip on the premium and business O&D traffic.


If Frontier can operate CVG-MSY with an A320 then DL should be embarrassed that they can't operate it with a CR9.


How so? DL doesn't serve SEA, BOS, or RDU daily from MSY, and MSY-MSP is once daily. Not really shocking that DL doesn't operate CVG-MSY, given their service to other hubs/focus cities from MSY.

ncflyer wrote:
cvg Is very nicely served now for the size of the metro area and the fact that many large cities are drivable. Delta has enough of a presence that it will completely keep BA AS AA at bay. There’s a downside to being one of the few abandoned hubs that remains a mini hub. Cvg pax should be appreciative that low cost carriers have penetrated its really the best of both worlds. Some or even most ideas thrown out here are not gonna happen.


I can see AS having a go at CVG-SEA, DL would most definitely react, but AS has held its ground on every SEA route it has started.
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compensateme
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 1:10 am

ABissonnette wrote:
Last year (2018) CVG had a total of more than 8.8 million passengers, and, according to my calculations, that will put CVG at about 10.2 million this year, and 11.5 million in 2020. Those are some pretty good numbers, and so that's why I'm expecting/hoping that the airlines and routes previously mentioned will happen..


Where in the world are you coming up with those numbers? You’re projecting 15% passenger growth this year, but through May, CVG was up 2.77%. And that’s deceitful, since they were up almost 5% in March, saw a sharp decline in April and was flat in May. Based on published schedules, CVG will break even with 2018 at best this summer and fall, posting a percentage gain over last year, a far cry from 15%.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:34 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
All of those for the time being come across as sexy routes with extremely low probability of happening.

While it’s nice to have a CVG centric view, the airlines are looking at places to add profitable capacity throughout their network. CVG is a priority market for no one other than to the extent that DL wants to keep its grip on the premium and business O&D traffic.


If Frontier can operate CVG-MSY with an A320 then DL should be embarrassed that they can't operate it with a CR9.

That is not the type of business that DL is trying to capture at CVG anyways, they have basically handed over markets/traffic of that nature at CVG to the F9/G4 of the world.
If the premium and business traffic isn't there, without connecting feed, DL doesn't care about serving this route in the current era.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 2:47 am

Yeah this isn’t CVG-hub DL when there were 4X daily mainline on CVG-MSY with 73S/72S/757/M88 etc. I don’t see it coming back. It lasted a good while... in fact my last ever 727 flight was DL399 CVG-MSY.
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N292UX
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 3:15 am

I think DL will eventually add CVG-MSY/PIT/BNA/JAX/SAN/ORF back. One they get their hands on some more smaller mainline jets, some more CRJ-700/900s should open up and be able to operate these routes. CVG-CLE would be an interesting one, but I'm not sure that one will happen, but if it did, it would be a pretty big add. On the flip side, I definitely see AA adding CVG-PHX, and almost certainly adding mainline CVG-CLT service at some point. AS and B6 MAY eventually come, but I more likely see someone like Moxy coming to town and adding a few flights to some higher demand cities, like MCO, etc.
 
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compensateme
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 4:07 am

N292UX wrote:
I think DL will eventually add CVG-MSY/PIT/BNA/JAX/SAN/ORF back. One they get their hands on some more smaller mainline jets, some more CRJ-700/900s should open up and be able to operate these routes. CVG-CLE would be an interesting one, but I'm not sure that one will happen, but if it did, it would be a pretty big add. On the flip side, I definitely see AA adding CVG-PHX, and almost certainly adding mainline CVG-CLT service at some point. AS and B6 MAY eventually come, but I more likely see someone like Moxy coming to town and adding a few flights to some higher demand cities, like MCO, etc.


Almost none of those routes stand any chance of resuming within this generation. You have to remember... DL’s regional jet fleet is scope limited. That’s the real reason DL agreed to acquire the E90 (later replacing it with what’s now the A220) — not because the A220 is a “game changing” aircraft, but because ~100 seat aircraft work well at MSP, DTW, SLC, etc. and allow it to grow its regional fleet.

DL’s identified LAX, BOS, SEA, AUS, BNA, RDU and SJC as markets it’d like to grow in. All (sans LAX and BOS) are emerging markets. CVG is not. While I wouldn’t expect DL to turn down a solid business opportunity, the reality is it’s unlikely CVG will experience, from DL, significant growth in the next generation. Again... finite resources and they will be deployed to emerging markets, where the opportunity for long-term return is much stronger.
We don’t care what your next flight is.
 
flyguy89
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:50 am

compensateme wrote:
N292UX wrote:
I think DL will eventually add CVG-MSY/PIT/BNA/JAX/SAN/ORF back. One they get their hands on some more smaller mainline jets, some more CRJ-700/900s should open up and be able to operate these routes. CVG-CLE would be an interesting one, but I'm not sure that one will happen, but if it did, it would be a pretty big add. On the flip side, I definitely see AA adding CVG-PHX, and almost certainly adding mainline CVG-CLT service at some point. AS and B6 MAY eventually come, but I more likely see someone like Moxy coming to town and adding a few flights to some higher demand cities, like MCO, etc.


Almost none of those routes stand any chance of resuming within this generation. You have to remember... DL’s regional jet fleet is scope limited. That’s the real reason DL agreed to acquire the E90 (later replacing it with what’s now the A220) — not because the A220 is a “game changing” aircraft, but because ~100 seat aircraft work well at MSP, DTW, SLC, etc. and allow it to grow its regional fleet.

DL’s identified LAX, BOS, SEA, AUS, BNA, RDU and SJC as markets it’d like to grow in. All (sans LAX and BOS) are emerging markets. CVG is not. While I wouldn’t expect DL to turn down a solid business opportunity, the reality is it’s unlikely CVG will experience, from DL, significant growth in the next generation. Again... finite resources and they will be deployed to emerging markets, where the opportunity for long-term return is much stronger.

Agree with you that most all of those routes are not realistic, however DL has grouped CVG in its focus city list along with BOS, RDU, BNA, SJC, etc. so I expect them to continue growing opportunistically here and there. Certainly nothing gangbusters however, but measured growth where the business case warrants.
 
TTailedTiger
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:53 am

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
All of those for the time being come across as sexy routes with extremely low probability of happening.

While it’s nice to have a CVG centric view, the airlines are looking at places to add profitable capacity throughout their network. CVG is a priority market for no one other than to the extent that DL wants to keep its grip on the premium and business O&D traffic.


If Frontier can operate CVG-MSY with an A320 then DL should be embarrassed that they can't operate it with a CR9.

That is not the type of business that DL is trying to capture at CVG anyways, they have basically handed over markets/traffic of that nature at CVG to the F9/G4 of the world.
If the premium and business traffic isn't there, without connecting feed, DL doesn't care about serving this route in the current era.


I connect through CVG on DL all the time. They still sell connecting flights there.
 
flyguy89
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 01, 2019 5:58 am

TTailedTiger wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
TTailedTiger wrote:

If Frontier can operate CVG-MSY with an A320 then DL should be embarrassed that they can't operate it with a CR9.

That is not the type of business that DL is trying to capture at CVG anyways, they have basically handed over markets/traffic of that nature at CVG to the F9/G4 of the world.
If the premium and business traffic isn't there, without connecting feed, DL doesn't care about serving this route in the current era.


I connect through CVG on DL all the time. They still sell connecting flights there.

They do, but are not pushing any significant volume of connecting traffic there. CVG has been re-optimized around O&D traffic so any new adds will have to stand on their own with connecting pax just the icing on the cake. If DL wanted to start using CVG as a large connecting complex again, nothing is stopping them...but that they haven't demonstrates their vision for CVG is that of an O&D-driven focus city.
 
avtcle
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:52 pm

A bit of a hiccup in Frontier's PUJ expansion...
STL-PUJ: Mon/Wed/Sat [Ends August 10, 2019, Resumes December 20, 2019.]
CLE-PUJ: Sun/Tues/Thurs [Ends August 8, 2019, Resumes December 22, 2019]
CVG-PUJ: Fri [Ends August 30, 2019]

Route suspensions likely due to unrest in the Dominican Republic. Tourists seem to forget pretty quickly.
 
ibthebigd
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Mon Jul 15, 2019 3:13 pm

I wonder if Aer Lingus would consider CVG with the A321XLR?

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
doulasc
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Re: CVG New Airlines/routes?

Tue Jul 16, 2019 2:33 am

maybe JetBlue will come to CVG

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