rjmf22
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US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:05 pm

Hey all,

It seems as if it really only is a matter of time before at least one of the major US airlines orders the 777X. UA's and AA's transatlantic and some of the transpacific (UA more than AA) is dependant on their aging fleet of 777's. Delta, however, not so much. And while the 787 is a great plane, i feel it may not offer the same capacity that the 777X offers, especially on routes with extremely high demand. With that being said, would a 777X order make sense for UA or AA to order?
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musman9853
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:11 pm

With the rumor that the 78J has been improved for ANZ, i honestly doubt it, especially for AA. There are very few routes in the US3 network that would absolutely require a 777x instead of a 78J.

i mean, just look at ua's 78Js vs their 772s. the 78J is a 4 class that seats 318 w/ 44J seats. their 772 w/polaris seats 266 in a 3 class, w/ 48 J seats. there really isnt any reason to buy a VLA
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Sooner787
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:12 pm

Yes, long term the 777X should find a home with both UA and AA .
Problem is both airlines have newly new 77W's on property, so it
could be another decade before we see any 777x's in service with those carriers
 
drdisque
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:13 pm

Yes, I imagine that AA will eventually order it as they don't have any A350 orders on the books and will need something to replace the 777's. However, I don't anticipate them requiring them until 2025 at the earliest, probably closer to 2030. I imagine at that point they will competitively evaluate the A350 and 777X in their current state and Airbus may win the order back.

Considering UA's recent moves with its A350 order, it likely sees the A350 as its 777 replacement.
 
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Spiderguy252
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:18 pm

The 77W was also seemingly a perfect fit for the US3 fleet when it was launched, but it only entered UA and AA's fleet much later.
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AC77X
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:21 pm

I only see American ordering them because Delta and United already have 350s. Keep in mind, the 2 large widebody twinjets of the industry right now are the 350 and 777. By the time the US3 order them, the CR939 may have been launched (next to no chance of being ordered...). UA and DL both have/ will have 350s, so if they need more capacity, I wouldn't be surprised to see them for for the 350.
 
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sassiciai
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:44 pm

There is some track record on a.net that the 777X is heavier by far than the A350-1000 (30 metric tons?) and will drink faster than the A350!

Also, perceived wisdom is that it is better to fill the frotn of the plane, and don't have too much at the back to fill with discounted fares!

If these airlines can fill 80% of a B777-9, then using an A350-1000 will fill it 90% (I didnt calculate the figures, if you dont like mine, go with your own). What's more, the flight will consume a lot less fuel! So selling the 779's extra seats at some back packer discount will achieve what, exactly? A higher load factor, increased earnings, higher capex, .........

Horses for courses!
 
triple3driver
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:48 pm

I'm quite doubtful to be honest, and here's why.

Delta already has their flagship in the A350-900, they'll very likely use the delayed A359s to replace the 77L/77E fleet, so I doubt we'll even see an A35K in DL colours, let alone a 777X.

If UA decides to proceed with the A350 order, then they likely will operate them alongside the 77W and 787 fleets, and will likely use a larger variant of an A350NEO or 787X to replace the 77W fleet, or they could even get some end of line A35K units several years from now, when the 77Ws are at the end of their lives, and if the A350 order gets cancelled, then they'll stick with the 787s.

AA's 77Ws are a fair bit older than UA's and so they likely will be the ones who will have the greatest need for a 777X rather than waiting for a 787X or A350NEO, but given their commitment to the 787 they could also very likely decide to take some 78Js when Boeing inevitably increases it's MTOW and forget the 777X. Much more likely, I wouldn't be all that surprised, but I think that it's more likely that they'll stick with the 787.
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StTim
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 4:59 pm

It is a long time since the US3 have indicated the need for an aircraft larger than the 777W. I don't really see a change in that.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:04 pm

That a US3 carrier ordered the B77W was a surprise of sorts, given the trend toward smaller planes, unless UA felt the B789 was too small, especially from Newark, on routes where the B78X doesn’t have the range.
 
Austin787
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:47 pm

I don't see any US3 airline ordering 77X anytime soon.

DL: already has the A350-900. I can see them taking A35K if they need a larger aircraft.

AA: current plan is to replace 772s with 789s, and AA could also order 78Js. AA may not look for a 77W replacement until the early 2030s - who knows what aircraft will be available by then.

UA: they have A350s on order which can be used to replace 772s. If UA decides not to take the A350, I see them going for more 789s and 78Js. Like AA, UA may not consider 77W replacement until the 2030s.
 
flight152
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 5:51 pm

Austin787 wrote:
I don't see any US3 airline ordering 77X anytime soon.

DL: already has the A350-900. I can see them taking A35K if they need a larger aircraft.

AA: current plan is to replace 772s with 789s, and AA could also order 78Js. AA may not look for a 77W replacement until the early 2030s - who knows what aircraft will be available by then.

UA: they have A350s on order which can be used to replace 772s. If UA decides not to take the A350, I see them going for more 789s and 78Js. Like AA, UA may not consider 77W replacement until the 2030s.

I doubt United will be thinking of a 77W replacement considering in 2030 they will be about only 10 years old.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 6:16 pm

Sooner787 wrote:
Yes, long term the 777X should find a home with both UA and AA .
Problem is both airlines have newly new 77W's on property, so it
could be another decade before we see any 777x's in service with those carriers

Long term, I agree.

It all depends on the cost per passenger. The lower the cost, the easier it is to make connections profitable.

However, if the 787-10 is improved as much as I believe it is going to be, the A359 and 787-10 will reduce the quantity of 777x ordered.

Lightsaber
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Sooner787
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:28 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Sooner787 wrote:
Yes, long term the 777X should find a home with both UA and AA .
Problem is both airlines have newly new 77W's on property, so it
could be another decade before we see any 777x's in service with those carriers

Long term, I agree.

It all depends on the cost per passenger. The lower the cost, the easier it is to make connections profitable.

However, if the 787-10 is improved as much as I believe it is going to be, the A359 and 787-10 will reduce the quantity of 777x ordered.

Lightsaber


You have a point..... I could see AA loading up on 78J's as their primary 77E replacement before they'd
order any 779's.
 
airzona11
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:33 pm

AA and UA will probably need 77W successors.
 
jfk777
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:48 pm

Everything here about the 777-9x is about replacement, by 2030 AA & UA may need the planes for expansion into some yet not flown markets. 777-9 also has uses in markets where the cargo capacity is needed no than range, AA has many such 77W routes now. GRU & LHR would be two. DFW to Melbourne would be a great AA 777-9 flights( or Qantas ).
 
Bricktop
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:50 pm

It’s a matter of time, but it’ll be at least a decade.
 
SteelChair
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 7:53 pm

Why would US carriers buy a plane that's optimized for the ME3?
 
jfk777
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:04 pm

SteelChair wrote:
Why would US carriers buy a plane that's optimized for the ME3?


Because they have a need to fly 300 people 16 hours too. New York or Chicago to Hong Kong or Sydney and Melbourne from DFW or Houston plus of course LAX.
The Atlantic is not everything.
 
xxcr
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 8:09 pm

Of the US3, i only see the 777X in UA and AA. DL is relying on the A359 and possibly the A35K. Even the 77W is too much plane for DL, so i dont see them getting the 777X.

UA and AA made the 77W work since they both fly longer routes that require the range and capacity for both TPAC and TATL routes.
UA also needed a plane to replace their 744's.
 
jfk777
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:30 pm

30 years ago AA discovered Tokyo, 5 or 6 years ago they discovered Hong Kong, it's only logical their next Asian destination moving west would be Singapore. Whatever 787 or 777-9 flying there is going to have to fly nonstop from DFW or LAX. Exciting times of Asian expansion.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 1:50 am

jfk777 wrote:
30 years ago AA discovered Tokyo, 5 or 6 years ago they discovered Hong Kong, it's only logical their next Asian destination moving west would be Singapore. Whatever 787 or 777-9 flying there is going to have to fly nonstop from DFW or LAX. Exciting times of Asian expansion.

It's only logical as both TYO and HKG are also big OW hubs, and is not too far off. SIN is, by their current standard, and especially when UA can't make LAX-SIN work when they're arguably the strongest but this is more of an aircraft performance issue than anything.

777-9 is not designed to fly 18 hours as far as I'm aware, and that's literally the minimum requirement from any of AA's current hub. I doubt they'll go SIN anytime soon.

Michael
 
NateGreat
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:33 am

AA and UA: Possibly for high density routes many years down the road, once the 77Ws need replacement.

DL: Maybe the 778, once their 777s need replacement. Granted, their 777s (the -200LRs at least) aren’t much older than AA/UA’s 77Ws. Although they may rely on A350s for replacing their 777s, if the A350s can make the really long 77L routes like ATL-JNB and LAX-SYD.
 
B764er
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:23 am

They will buy it. Only when is the question.
 
sabby
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:07 am

DL's largest plane is A359, so I don't see them getting 777X unless get some really cheap 777-8s. AA can get some if they want to retain F for their replacement of 77Ws. UA have 318 seats 78J and 350 seats 77W, not that big a difference except for the J count. They could have 50 or more J seats sacrificing some Y in the 787-10. Legacy carriers are now all about yield and premium traffic, doubt they'll go after Y traffic. I could also see another stretch of 787-10 with upgraded landing gear and next generation engine if the 777X program doesn't do as well as Boeing hope.
 
jfk777
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:49 am

eamondzhang wrote:
jfk777 wrote:
30 years ago AA discovered Tokyo, 5 or 6 years ago they discovered Hong Kong, it's only logical their next Asian destination moving west would be Singapore. Whatever 787 or 777-9 flying there is going to have to fly nonstop from DFW or LAX. Exciting times of Asian expansion.

It's only logical as both TYO and HKG are also big OW hubs, and is not too far off. SIN is, by their current standard, and especially when UA can't make LAX-SIN work when they're arguably the strongest but this is more of an aircraft performance issue than anything.

777-9 is not designed to fly 18 hours as far as I'm aware, and that's literally the minimum requirement from any of AA's current hub. I doubt they'll go SIN anytime soon.

Michael


The 777-8/9 is being considered for the Qantas Double Sunrise mission, nonstops from Sydney to London Heathrow. It better be able to fly 18 hours. Sydney to JFK and Sao Paulo are also future Qantas nonstops.
 
eamondzhang
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:07 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The 777-8/9 is being considered for the Qantas Double Sunrise mission, nonstops from Sydney to London Heathrow. It better be able to fly 18 hours. Sydney to JFK and Sao Paulo are also future Qantas nonstops.

Think AJ mentioned somewhere that only 777-8 is under consideration (versus A350) for Sunrise not -9. As far as I'm aware 779X is currently for 16hr DXB-LAX but not much more, it's the 778X that has the leg.

Michael
 
acjbbj
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Wed Jul 10, 2019 5:35 pm

Always wanted the 777-9 to do extremely high-traffic domestic routes, not just international routes. (LAX-JFK / LAX-EWR maybe?)

Go back to domestic widebodies!
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ArchGuy1
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Mon Sep 30, 2019 2:22 am

I could see the 777X operate for United and Delta, since they had the 747-400.
 
timh4000
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Re: US3 and the 777X, only a matter of time?

Tue Oct 01, 2019 10:03 pm

I wouldd think that airlines and the aircraft builders do communicate on needs and wants. Boeing is throwing a lot of chips down on the 777x. I do see some of the U.S. 3 making purchases and in the not to distant future. Perhaps Boeing can rely solely on foreign airlines for profit.... but I think the U.S.3 has talked about the plane so I expect at least some purchases, perhaps not 100 but maybe a dozen or two.

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