sonicruiser
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What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:08 pm

We've come a long way from Kitty Hawk, to props, to the jet age, to jumbos. What will be the next revolution in air travel and how far are we from it?
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:14 pm

There won’t be one. 100 years ago , a Lt Col Eisenhower led a US Army motor convoy across the US, some of it on dirt trails, it took months. 50 years later, we landed on the moon and the 747 was planned to fly at M.84. It still does, plus or minus a bit. Future advances will be incremental—things like lower emissions, new avionics, more efficient routing.

GF
 
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Tugger
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:18 pm

I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. - W. Shatner
Productivity isn’t about getting more things done, rather it’s about getting the right things done, while doing less. - M. Oshin
 
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T18
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:11 pm

If the hype is to be listened to it will be no boom supersonic aircraft.
“Racing's important to men who do it well. When you're racing, it's life. Anything that happens before or after is just waiting.” ― Steve McQueen (Le Mans) 1971
 
planewasted
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:14 pm

Small electric taxi service drones for short jumps. About 20 years away.
 
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aerorobnz
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:39 am

Technology will have not made the necessary leap in the next 15 years before Air Travel will be banned/heavily restricted in some countries to lower their emissions and those who do like to fly will be bullied and harassed by protestors outside airports in countries where it will still be possible. Air travel will be taxed exorbitantly in places like Europe and New Zealand and the market in those countries will shrivel and collapse economies leaving millions unemployed. On the flip-side, the developing world industry will boom and so will their economies so eventually once the climate hysteria is over for a few years in the west and they realise it has had virtually no discernible effect it will return because there are government toppling riots and political regime changes.and by that time they will have the necessary tech for a step change in 20-25 years. There will be a return to much smaller aeroplanes with far greater range but I don't know if it will be hydrogen/biofuel/hybrid battery/combustion/nuclear powered and require much shorter runways. Think what that did to the corporate industry. all but the largest city hubs will be dehubbed and point to point strategy will be possible from many more airports than ever.
Flown to 147 Airports in 62 Countries on 83 Operators and counting. Wanderlust is like Syphilis, once you have the itch it's too late for treatment.
 
RJMAZ
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:58 am

planewasted wrote:
Small electric taxi service drones for short jumps. About 20 years away.

Agreed. Electric aircraft is the future.

I think the reduced noise will see electric begin to operate from smaller airports. This is where these electric taxi aircraft will operate. I expect them to be single pilot operating.

There will be no need to drive for two hours in traffic to a major airport. A passenger will be able to drive 10 minutes to a small local general aviation airport and the near silent electric aircraft will take them to their destination.

The hub and spoke model will be dead.

With two major cities 500nm apart a passenger could travel from small airport to small airport. Usually there are multiple general aviation airports located within an hour of the CBD of a major city so a passenger could pick which side of a city they land at. Their driveless taxi car will then take them to their destination.

Another trend will be long haul aircraft will continue to get smaller and smaller the 787 was just the start. Expect the 797 and A321XLR to start opening new point to point routes.
 
prebennorholm
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:02 am

sonicruiser wrote:
What will be the next revolution in air travel and how far are we from it?

Next major invention for air travel will be a lightweight foldable carbon fibre chair to rest on in airport queues - baggage drop, security, bag retrieval, delayed departure, ticket change (missed connection) etc.

Chair will be designed to fit (when collaped) in a backpack smartphone pocket, and it will sell in most airport taxfree shops at $999.99.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:51 am

RJMAZ wrote:
planewasted wrote:
Small electric taxi service drones for short jumps. About 20 years away.

Agreed. Electric aircraft is the future.

I think the reduced noise will see electric begin to operate from smaller airports. This is where these electric taxi aircraft will operate. I expect them to be single pilot operating.

There will be no need to drive for two hours in traffic to a major airport. A passenger will be able to drive 10 minutes to a small local general aviation airport and the near silent electric aircraft will take them to their destination.

The hub and spoke model will be dead.

With two major cities 500nm apart a passenger could travel from small airport to small airport. Usually there are multiple general aviation airports located within an hour of the CBD of a major city so a passenger could pick which side of a city they land at. Their driveless taxi car will then take them to their destination.

Another trend will be long haul aircraft will continue to get smaller and smaller the 787 was just the start. Expect the 797 and A321XLR to start opening new point to point routes.


It’ll be a small drone with 9,000 pounds of batteries to power a two hour, 500nm flight, if batteries make some quantum leaps in chemistry to increase their specific energy to unheard of levels.

GF
 
Armadillo1
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:01 am

Is fast trains a revolutionary for air travel? May be hyperloop another one.
 
HugoJunkers
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 6:52 am

sonicruiser wrote:
We've come a long way from Kitty Hawk, to props, to the jet age, to jumbos. What will be the next revolution in air travel and how far are we from it?



1 EVTOL Urban Mobility "Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing" passenger aircraft more along an uber or taxi ride share business model. Id say 2025. My favourite model is Lilium. They have nearly 200 million euro and are going for full EASA cortication from the get go. Uber, Boeing and Airbus are pouring money into it.
It gets around traffic.
2 Drone delivery: This can deliver parcel post, mail, pathology samples, medicines and spare parts. Obviously it can also deliver pizza, and capaciunos. The drones work by winching down the parcel.
It gets around traffic.
3 Clearly there are strong synergies between Drone Delivery and EVTOL taxi services and these services will point to pilotless aircraft
4 Pilotless regional flight. Its not hard to imagine Electric STOL aircraft operating of short runways creating a network to handle point to point flights between 50km to 400km. Its not hard to imagine runways less than 500m in length operating fully automated aircraft competing with buses and trains.

I can imagine aircraft such as the A321XLR evolving to higher cruising speeds and ranges to the point that practical 5000NM flights in under 10 hours become the norm. These flights too shall be fully automated but perhaps supervised by only one pilot
 
HugoJunkers
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 7:11 am

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
planewasted wrote:
Small electric taxi service drones for short jumps. About 20 years away.

Agreed. Electric aircraft is the future.

I think the reduced noise will see electric begin to operate from smaller airports. This is where these electric taxi aircraft will operate. I expect them to be single pilot operating.

There will be no need to drive for two hours in traffic to a major airport. A passenger will be able to drive 10 minutes to a small local general aviation airport and the near silent electric aircraft will take them to their destination.

The hub and spoke model will be dead.

With two major cities 500nm apart a passenger could travel from small airport to small airport. Usually there are multiple general aviation airports located within an hour of the CBD of a major city so a passenger could pick which side of a city they land at. Their driveless taxi car will then take them to their destination.

Another trend will be long haul aircraft will continue to get smaller and smaller the 787 was just the start. Expect the 797 and A321XLR to start opening new point to point routes.


It’ll be a small drone with 9,000 pounds of batteries to power a two hour, 500nm flight, if batteries make some quantum leaps in chemistry to increase their specific energy to unheard of levels.

GF


The batteries used in the Tesla Model 3, pretty much state of the art, offer 248 Watt Hours of power per KG. They have a C3 discharge capability ie they can be discharged in 20 minutes to yield about 744 Watts of power for 20 minutes. In ludicrous mode they will offer C4. Batteries with C15 discharge curves are easy to get but compromise slightly on life and power density.

Schuebler-de make an 8inch 200mm diameter EDF "Electric Ducted Fan" whose parameters are 3.4kg weight, 25kg thrust for 11 to 15.6 kW power draw. The maths of EVTOL works with current battery densities. You can play with those numbers and you'll see you can make aircraft fly.

There are laboratory scale batch produced batteries offering 500Watt Hours and 5000-10000 cycle life.

My own expectation is that the 250Watt Hour Batteries with build the prototypes, prove the concept, start a few services (especially in drone delivery) but it won't be till batteries are at 350 W/H that it will take off commercially in a big way. LiPo has a potential of 800W/Hr

The thing to remember is that when looked at as a system the specific power density of a electric motor/battery combination exceeds that of piston and gas turbines for flights of less than 100km. The electric motors are extremely light (about 1/6th of a petrol motor) and completely vibration free. The energy density is competitive for short flights.
 
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PatrickZ80
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:34 am

T18 wrote:
If the hype is to be listened to it will be no boom supersonic aircraft.


I don't think so. For 99.9 percent of all passengers, speed is not that important when it comes to air travel. Conventional aircraft are fast enough.

However what is important is fuel savings, how can we burn the least fuel on air travel? Clearly supersonic aircraft aren't the answer to that question as they'll always have a much higher fuel burn than conventional aircraft. Therefor they're very much frowned upon.

I think the next revolution might be all-electric aircraft which no longer consume any traditional fuel. We're slowly moving in that direction, but not quite there yet.
 
VC10er
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Re: What will be the next revolution in air travel?

Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:32 pm

In the near or far future?
I ask because of selfish reasons. At 57 I realize that the most I can hope for is innovation in service or perhaps seeing larger aircraft doing many of the NB flying today, and internationally seeing more 787 sized aircraft doing major city to more niche destinations non stop. Enter the 797.
In my lifetime, and especially the past 30 years, big, loud metal aircraft with trails of black smoke, have been replaced by much quieter aircraft, with no black smoke, and made mostly of composite materials. I started my career allowed to fly First Class on a 747 to Asia. The seat was a big fat square 2-2-2 that had great recline and a flat foot rest, 1 row of smoking! Today, business class is much better than that: but nobody is carving a roast by my seat, and no caviar. Everything inside looks more or less the same vs 30 years ago. Perhaps a different circumstance, different bin design but (almost) everything is a tube w 2 engines.
It’s very difficult to separate being 30 years old and sitting in First in the nose of a 747 and pinching myself as I was more accustomed to PeopleExpress. It was an awe inspiring ride.
Today when I am in a modern, beautifully designed semi private business class BED seat, with 30 movies, TV and WiFi - I think if I was suddenly back in that big square seat for 18 hours with 7 movies to choose from and the carved roast and lobster tails- I would want to be back on my 787.
I’ve seen chairs turn into angled ironing boards, super tight bed seats, palatial First Class booths, then a business class that is more than fine.
All this as I have watched “coach” become a smashed up, overcrowded space, that half way through looks like a favela with everyone having taken Ambien or Xanax to survive.
I hope before I die, the differences between the haves and have nots change.
As for after I’m dead: clearly anti gravity and suborbital travel (although look what happened to those poor people on the “Spindrift!”)
To Most the Sky is The Limit, For me, the Sky is Home.

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