UA857
Topic Author
Posts: 289
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:15 am

If 9/11 didn’t happen would the 747-8 and A380 sell well?
 
Fuling
Posts: 145
Joined: Sun Apr 10, 2011 4:41 am

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:21 am

Wait, so the B748 and A380 have poor sales because of 9/11?
 
VV
Posts: 778
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:50 am

UA857 wrote:
If 9/11 didn’t happen would the 747-8 and A380 sell well?


NO.
 
Jefford717
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Jul 01, 2018 11:36 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am

Both B748 and A380 have poor sales because of economics and 9/11 has nothing to do with it. Air traffic slowed down years following 9/11 due to fears of flying but the trend was industry wide and not a specific type of aircraft (or future aircrafts I.e. B748 or A380 at that time) that caused it. Technological advancement/ETOPS pretty much negates the advantages of operating a 4 engined plane over 2 especially when traveling transoceanic particularly after the year 2000. I’m willing to bet that the A380 was probably the last clean sheet 4 engine aircraft that we will all see in our lifespan.
 
ewt340
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:57 am

Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.
 
Sokes
Posts: 156
Joined: Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:48 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.

First delivery B777-300ER to Air France in April 2004.
First delivery A380 in Oktober 2007.

At the end of 2004 139 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2007 198 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2013 304 A380 were on order.

You may still be right. Most orders were from Emirates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... ries_graph
In some other topic it was mentioned that in Dubai heat B777-300ER has to start below MTOW because of tyre speed limitations. The B777X won't have that problem.
And then Emirates doesn't get as many daily landing rights as it desires. Unfreedom of the air was part of A380's "success".

Why would an event from 2001 affect a plane that entered service in 2007?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
SEU
Posts: 146
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:04 pm

Is this a serious question?
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Posts: 2164
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:21 pm

The A380 and 747-8 didn’t sell well because they aren’t particularly efficient compared to the competition. Efficiency has to do with physics, not 9/11.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
KlimaBXsst
Posts: 322
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2019 4:14 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:13 pm

Can’t rewrite history though one can always try. Don’t work though.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 141
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:07 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Can’t rewrite history though one can always try. Don’t work though.


It is very popular to say that the A380 was a good idea, but the timing of 9-11 and the 2007 recession made it the right plane at the wrong time.

While there is some truth to that statement, I don't think it was the main cause of the demise.

The last order for new B747s for most USA airlines was placed before 1980
23. Oct. 1979 Transamerica Airlines
24. Apr. 1979 Flying Tiger
18. Dec. 1978 Braniff Airlines
17. Oct. 1978 TWA
5. Sep. 1978 Seaboard World Airlines
30. Jun. 1978 Pan Am World Airways
27. Mar. 1972 World Airways, Inc.
18. Apr. 1969 American Airlines
21. Jun. 1968 Delta Air Lines
12. Jun. 1967 Eastern Air Lines

As the ETOPS program developed most USA airlines were no longer interested in 4-engined jets. The exceptions were United Airlines and Northwest Airlines who used them on their trans-Pacific routes. But the last major order was for 12 B747s by United Airlines on 22. Aug. 1996 followed by orders for 4 more in less than a year.

So the USA airlines were pretty much done with 4 engined jets just as the A380 was in beginnings of its design phase. The executives of Airbus were probably delusional if they believed that the A380 would ever sell in the USA. The downturn after 9-11 hit the USA the worst and probably did not have any substantial effect on A380 sales.

However, the B747-400 was selling like crazy in Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Airbus expected to sell hundreds of A380s expecting most of them to be configured with over 750 seats where the efficiency of a jet that size would have been much clearer.

The worst nightmare of Airbus executives that they would sell only 8 A380s in Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. My personal feeling is that the misjudgment of the Asian market was the real Airbus mistake.

It is also popular to say that the airlines like the B787 with their ability to fly long, thin routes killed the A380. I don't think that even at program launch they ever expected to produce more than about 75 A380s per year. I don't think the B787 long thin routes ever had much impact on the total number of passengers flying large hub to large hub. Airbus just did not count on the massive airport construction projects (especially in Asia) that would make them follow the USA in largely rejecting 4 engined jets.
 
ewt340
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:29 am

Sokes wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.

First delivery B777-300ER to Air France in April 2004.
First delivery A380 in Oktober 2007.

At the end of 2004 139 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2007 198 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2013 304 A380 were on order.

You may still be right. Most orders were from Emirates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... ries_graph
In some other topic it was mentioned that in Dubai heat B777-300ER has to start below MTOW because of tyre speed limitations. The B777X won't have that problem.
And then Emirates doesn't get as many daily landing rights as it desires. Unfreedom of the air was part of A380's "success".

Why would an event from 2001 affect a plane that entered service in 2007?


Because an event from 2001 affected the aviation industry for decades to come. 2008 with financial crisis doesn't help either. Many airlines doesn't just order an aircraft after it launched, sometimes they ordered it few years after they are flying.
 
Vladex
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:11 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
The A380 and 747-8 didn’t sell well because they aren’t particularly efficient compared to the competition. Efficiency has to do with physics, not 9/11.


Efficiency is mostly about engines propulsive efficiency and 777, A350 and 787 have a bit better engines but these single decks have limited ground clearance for future engines as in 737 and especially 787. That physics is the same today as in the future so it's a great conundrum to have , when engines are getting ever larger they are making only twin engines with very limited ground clearance and in the past when engines were smaller they were putting them on quad engine double decks, the irony is just stunning.
 
Vladex
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:40 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?
 
User avatar
smithbs
Posts: 270
Joined: Wed May 17, 2017 6:09 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:55 pm

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


3x 773ER would get you more frequency options than 2x A380, and frequency is important to travelers these days. 3x 773ER could also be a bit more flexible in locations served, thereby providing more destination options.
 
ewt340
Posts: 730
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:22 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:48 pm

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


1. B777-300ER are WAY smaller in terms of capacity, many airlines have problems filling A380 apart from Emirates.
2. B777-300ER provided better flexibility for their networks.
3. Airlines crammed as much as seats into B777-300ER cabin while many airlines like SQ or KE put lots of amenity in A380 like showers, 2 stairs, bars, inflight store. Which is a dead weight which reduces fuel economy of A380. Only few airlines put these kind of amenities in their B777-300ER. But most of them doesn't have these dead weight.
4. B777-300ER seat on economy class are smaller than A380. Again, the larger seats on A380 reduces fuel efficiency per passengers.
 
Vladex
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:30 pm

smithbs wrote:
Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


3x 773ER would get you more frequency options than 2x A380, and frequency is important to travelers these days. 3x 773ER could also be a bit more flexible in locations served, thereby providing more destination options.


2 of A380 has two less pilots to pay and frequency is overrated and counter productive on long haul especially west to east due to timezones. Consider that there are no flights between North America and Europe during the day from about 10am to 6pm and I mean big hubs here JFK-LHR, YYZ-LHR . I assume it's the same thing with Europe and East Asia.
 
Vladex
Posts: 335
Joined: Sat Oct 26, 2013 2:44 pm

Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:37 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


1. B777-300ER are WAY smaller in terms of capacity, many airlines have problems filling A380 apart from Emirates.
2. B777-300ER provided better flexibility for their networks.
3. Airlines crammed as much as seats into B777-300ER cabin while many airlines like SQ or KE put lots of amenity in A380 like showers, 2 stairs, bars, inflight store. Which is a dead weight which reduces fuel economy of A380. Only few airlines put these kind of amenities in their B777-300ER. But most of them doesn't have these dead weight.
4. B777-300ER seat on economy class are smaller than A380. Again, the larger seats on A380 reduces fuel efficiency per passengers.


Yes I know 773 sucks and I know all the inverted marketing where bad is actually good .

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cskok8, timh4000, TUGMASTER and 18 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos