UA857
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Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:15 am

If 9/11 didn’t happen would the 747-8 and A380 sell well?
 
Fuling
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:21 am

Wait, so the B748 and A380 have poor sales because of 9/11?
 
VV
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:50 am

UA857 wrote:
If 9/11 didn’t happen would the 747-8 and A380 sell well?


NO.
 
Jefford717
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:05 am

Both B748 and A380 have poor sales because of economics and 9/11 has nothing to do with it. Air traffic slowed down years following 9/11 due to fears of flying but the trend was industry wide and not a specific type of aircraft (or future aircrafts I.e. B748 or A380 at that time) that caused it. Technological advancement/ETOPS pretty much negates the advantages of operating a 4 engined plane over 2 especially when traveling transoceanic particularly after the year 2000. I’m willing to bet that the A380 was probably the last clean sheet 4 engine aircraft that we will all see in our lifespan.
 
ewt340
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:57 am

Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.
 
Sokes
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:02 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.

First delivery B777-300ER to Air France in April 2004.
First delivery A380 in Oktober 2007.

At the end of 2004 139 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2007 198 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2013 304 A380 were on order.

You may still be right. Most orders were from Emirates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... ries_graph
In some other topic it was mentioned that in Dubai heat B777-300ER has to start below MTOW because of tyre speed limitations. The B777X won't have that problem.
And then Emirates doesn't get as many daily landing rights as it desires. Unfreedom of the air was part of A380's "success".

Why would an event from 2001 affect a plane that entered service in 2007?
Why can't the world be a little bit more autistic?
 
SEU
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:04 pm

Is this a serious question?
 
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hOMSaR
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:21 pm

The A380 and 747-8 didn’t sell well because they aren’t particularly efficient compared to the competition. Efficiency has to do with physics, not 9/11.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
KlimaBXsst
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:13 pm

Can’t rewrite history though one can always try. Don’t work though.
Aesthetically the A 340 got it right!
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:07 pm

KlimaBXsst wrote:
Can’t rewrite history though one can always try. Don’t work though.


It is very popular to say that the A380 was a good idea, but the timing of 9-11 and the 2007 recession made it the right plane at the wrong time.

While there is some truth to that statement, I don't think it was the main cause of the demise.

The last order for new B747s for most USA airlines was placed before 1980
23. Oct. 1979 Transamerica Airlines
24. Apr. 1979 Flying Tiger
18. Dec. 1978 Braniff Airlines
17. Oct. 1978 TWA
5. Sep. 1978 Seaboard World Airlines
30. Jun. 1978 Pan Am World Airways
27. Mar. 1972 World Airways, Inc.
18. Apr. 1969 American Airlines
21. Jun. 1968 Delta Air Lines
12. Jun. 1967 Eastern Air Lines

As the ETOPS program developed most USA airlines were no longer interested in 4-engined jets. The exceptions were United Airlines and Northwest Airlines who used them on their trans-Pacific routes. But the last major order was for 12 B747s by United Airlines on 22. Aug. 1996 followed by orders for 4 more in less than a year.

So the USA airlines were pretty much done with 4 engined jets just as the A380 was in beginnings of its design phase. The executives of Airbus were probably delusional if they believed that the A380 would ever sell in the USA. The downturn after 9-11 hit the USA the worst and probably did not have any substantial effect on A380 sales.

However, the B747-400 was selling like crazy in Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Airbus expected to sell hundreds of A380s expecting most of them to be configured with over 750 seats where the efficiency of a jet that size would have been much clearer.

The worst nightmare of Airbus executives that they would sell only 8 A380s in Japan, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. My personal feeling is that the misjudgment of the Asian market was the real Airbus mistake.

It is also popular to say that the airlines like the B787 with their ability to fly long, thin routes killed the A380. I don't think that even at program launch they ever expected to produce more than about 75 A380s per year. I don't think the B787 long thin routes ever had much impact on the total number of passengers flying large hub to large hub. Airbus just did not count on the massive airport construction projects (especially in Asia) that would make them follow the USA in largely rejecting 4 engined jets.
 
ewt340
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:29 am

Sokes wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.

First delivery B777-300ER to Air France in April 2004.
First delivery A380 in Oktober 2007.

At the end of 2004 139 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2007 198 A380 were on order.
At the end of 2013 304 A380 were on order.

You may still be right. Most orders were from Emirates.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_A ... ries_graph
In some other topic it was mentioned that in Dubai heat B777-300ER has to start below MTOW because of tyre speed limitations. The B777X won't have that problem.
And then Emirates doesn't get as many daily landing rights as it desires. Unfreedom of the air was part of A380's "success".

Why would an event from 2001 affect a plane that entered service in 2007?


Because an event from 2001 affected the aviation industry for decades to come. 2008 with financial crisis doesn't help either. Many airlines doesn't just order an aircraft after it launched, sometimes they ordered it few years after they are flying.
 
Vladex
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:11 pm

hOMSaR wrote:
The A380 and 747-8 didn’t sell well because they aren’t particularly efficient compared to the competition. Efficiency has to do with physics, not 9/11.


Efficiency is mostly about engines propulsive efficiency and 777, A350 and 787 have a bit better engines but these single decks have limited ground clearance for future engines as in 737 and especially 787. That physics is the same today as in the future so it's a great conundrum to have , when engines are getting ever larger they are making only twin engines with very limited ground clearance and in the past when engines were smaller they were putting them on quad engine double decks, the irony is just stunning.
 
Vladex
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:40 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?
 
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smithbs
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:55 pm

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


3x 773ER would get you more frequency options than 2x A380, and frequency is important to travelers these days. 3x 773ER could also be a bit more flexible in locations served, thereby providing more destination options.
 
ewt340
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:48 pm

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


1. B777-300ER are WAY smaller in terms of capacity, many airlines have problems filling A380 apart from Emirates.
2. B777-300ER provided better flexibility for their networks.
3. Airlines crammed as much as seats into B777-300ER cabin while many airlines like SQ or KE put lots of amenity in A380 like showers, 2 stairs, bars, inflight store. Which is a dead weight which reduces fuel economy of A380. Only few airlines put these kind of amenities in their B777-300ER. But most of them doesn't have these dead weight.
4. B777-300ER seat on economy class are smaller than A380. Again, the larger seats on A380 reduces fuel efficiency per passengers.
 
Vladex
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:30 pm

smithbs wrote:
Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


3x 773ER would get you more frequency options than 2x A380, and frequency is important to travelers these days. 3x 773ER could also be a bit more flexible in locations served, thereby providing more destination options.


2 of A380 has two less pilots to pay and frequency is overrated and counter productive on long haul especially west to east due to timezones. Consider that there are no flights between North America and Europe during the day from about 10am to 6pm and I mean big hubs here JFK-LHR, YYZ-LHR . I assume it's the same thing with Europe and East Asia.
 
Vladex
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Aug 16, 2019 7:37 pm

ewt340 wrote:
Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Probably not. 10-abreast B777-300ER is one of the main reason why both B747-8 and A380 fails.


Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


1. B777-300ER are WAY smaller in terms of capacity, many airlines have problems filling A380 apart from Emirates.
2. B777-300ER provided better flexibility for their networks.
3. Airlines crammed as much as seats into B777-300ER cabin while many airlines like SQ or KE put lots of amenity in A380 like showers, 2 stairs, bars, inflight store. Which is a dead weight which reduces fuel economy of A380. Only few airlines put these kind of amenities in their B777-300ER. But most of them doesn't have these dead weight.
4. B777-300ER seat on economy class are smaller than A380. Again, the larger seats on A380 reduces fuel efficiency per passengers.


Yes I know 773 sucks and I know all the inverted marketing where bad is actually good .
 
ewt340
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:12 am

Vladex wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Vladex wrote:

Price wise, fuel consumption wise and by floor area 2 of A380 and 3 777-300ER are almost identical so how does someone choose?


1. B777-300ER are WAY smaller in terms of capacity, many airlines have problems filling A380 apart from Emirates.
2. B777-300ER provided better flexibility for their networks.
3. Airlines crammed as much as seats into B777-300ER cabin while many airlines like SQ or KE put lots of amenity in A380 like showers, 2 stairs, bars, inflight store. Which is a dead weight which reduces fuel economy of A380. Only few airlines put these kind of amenities in their B777-300ER. But most of them doesn't have these dead weight.
4. B777-300ER seat on economy class are smaller than A380. Again, the larger seats on A380 reduces fuel efficiency per passengers.


Yes I know 773 sucks and I know all the inverted marketing where bad is actually good .


Uh?
 
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gunsontheroof
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Mon Aug 19, 2019 4:40 am

The A380 might (MIGHT) have been able to get some additional traction, but the 747-8I showed up way too late for 9/11 to have been a contributing factor to its lackluster sales reports. The industry was already well on its way to a preference for twins before 9/11 and outside of the handful of carriers that ordered the 747-8I, that outlook was more or less locked in a decade ago. The 2008 financial crisis certainly didn't do any favors for either program.
Picked a hell of a week to quit sniffing glue.
 
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PacoMartin
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Aug 23, 2019 3:21 am

Japan, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan purchased 347 brand new B747s over the life of the program. They bought 8 A380s. These markets were not severely affected by 9-11.

Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia purchased 235 brand new B747s over the life of the program. They bought 32 A380s.

Australia and New Zealand purchased 65 brand new B747s over the life of the program. Qantas bought 12 A380s.

I think Airbus new the market for 4 engined jets was dead in North America, but they truly expected it to be strong in Asia. Only United and Northwest ordered any B747s after 1980. Once you didn't need them to fly to Europe there was very little interest.
 
blacksoviet
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Jan 31, 2020 9:10 am

No. 9/11 killed the 727-200, not the 747-8.
Before 9/11, the 727 was the workhorse of the NW and DL fleets.
Soon after 9/11, all 727s were either sold to charter airlines or scrapped. I don’t think very many were converted to freighters. Many 727s were parked in the desert with plenty of cycles left. Such a shame.
 
FGITD
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Fri Jan 31, 2020 4:01 pm

blacksoviet wrote:
No. 9/11 killed the 727-200, not the 747-8.
Before 9/11, the 727 was the workhorse of the NW and DL fleets.
Soon after 9/11, all 727s were either sold to charter airlines or scrapped. I don’t think very many were converted to freighters. Many 727s were parked in the desert with plenty of cycles left. Such a shame.


That's a bit like saying email killed telegrams. Sure it may have contributed, but there were a few other factors in between.

By 2001, 727 production had been over for 17 years. It was expensive, it was old, and it was time to go. Without 9/11 maybe it sticks around a little bit longer, but there's a limit to its usefulness regardless of world events.

To really illustrate how old the 727 design was, it's worth remembering what aircraft many airlines bought it to replace. Constellations, DC-6, etc. Which really seems unbelievable that 1 generation of aircraft can separate a route being served by a constellation vs an a320...
 
B-HOP
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:38 pm

True the VLA relies heavily in Asian market, there are several factors that heavily affected that started VLA's downfall since late 1990's. The financial crisis means belts were tighten up and if 747-5/600X did get launched in 1997, it might end up with orders like A345/6, but Boeing put a brake on it, the market were simply were not there, the launch for 747X didn't take place either, resources ended up being for Sonic Crusier/787. The initial launch for A380 were with much fanfare, many jumped on the ship but without getting the actual plane, the building of airport infrastructure all over Asia means more flights can be operated, like new runway in Narita, ICN, 3rd runway for HKG etc, I'd say reopen HND for international flights also reduce demand for VLA from NRT, NRT had such a shortage for slots before, same goes to more p2p flights ex China, removing the need of CAN, BJS as a hub, all removes some need for a VLA, also LCC plays a bigger role in Asian flights on trunk route, HKG for example, saw up to 5 LCC flights per day by 3K, TR, same goes for LCC flights to KIX, NRT etc, all denting the demand of keeping passengers on a large VLA operate by a legacy carrier, some LCC even have widebodies, Scoot, Air Asia X, NokScoot etc all successfully operates widebodies. This changes trends for Asian market and reduce much need for VLA, the relative small cargo hold for 380 didn't help either, 77W contribute better to the bottom line with better cargo abilities, whilst on less fuel and slightly smaller crew number
Live life to max!!!
 
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flyingclrs727
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Re: Would the 747-8 and A380 sell well if 9/11 didn’t happen.

Sun Feb 09, 2020 10:05 pm

I doubt it. 747-400 sales dropped off in the mid 90's after the introduction of the A340-600 that was somewhat smaller but had a lower CASM. Then when the 777-300ER entered service with better than promised CASM, A340 orders dropped off.

Emirates was the only airline that was able to make the A380 work in its business plan. I suspect that many of the other airlines that had plans to take more A380's, but Emirates stole many of the passengers they planned on carrying. Not only did they not have the expected passenger volumes to justify adding more A380's, but many are planning on retiring all or part of their A380 fleets early. Continuing to support the A380 ecosystem helps their competitors, Emirates.

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