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rjsampson
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Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:48 am

I'm sure this has been asked before. With Boeing: It's pretty much out there: They're planning on (possibly)? embarking on their first clean-sheet aircraft with the NMA 797. Of course, with the MAX issues and the A321XLR muddying the business case, to invest ~$20 billion into a new program that'll need 2,000 orders to make a profit... Who knows where that will lead. Regardless: It's inevitable one-way-or-the other, as the 737 has reached its final iteration. There can be no more.

Where does that leave Airbus? VLA - tried that, we know the story. Clean-sheet 777 competitor? Already in service.

There doesn't seem to be a pressing business case for a new clean-sheet aircraft programme for the company as the A320 series turned out to be remarkably "future-proof" from its 1989 EIS.

Surely, however, there must be engineers working on something new. Any notion of what that could be? Any leaks indicating as such?

Looking forward to your thoughts (and anyone suggesting something that's not a tube with 2 engines -- don't bother. Stay realistic. We're talking about the NEXT aircraft). What will Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft be?
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
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LaunchDetected
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:54 am

The triad A220-A321-A350 is already well positioned to cover a large spectrum during the next decades.

A321 being the older one, a clean-sheet of the equivalent size, with composite fuselage could be an idea, like a 797, but with the following generation of engines. I think it would be too early for electrical engines though.
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keesje
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:18 am

Maybe a lean 1.5 aisle A300/A310/A330 replacement for up to 300 passengers single class.

Image
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YIMBY
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:19 am

Next European clean-sheet should be a 100+ seated turboprop. How much that is Airbus, who knows?

Otherwise Airbus has no immediate need for clean-sheets, until there is a significant step in technology.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:27 am

Airbus's next clean sheet will likely be the A320 replacement in around 10/15 years. Airbus themselves have revealed this on a number of occasions.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:29 am

Otherwise Airbus has no immediate need for clean-sheets, until there is a significant step in technology


I think you are probably right. Their next major development would probably be a new wing for the A321; pretty unlikely they'd need to do a new fuselage which is still fine and CFRP doesn't offer significant weight savings at this size anyway. At the same time, they could consider a new nose if that cleaned up the aerodynamics a bit but grandfathering would play a part in a decision like that.
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:30 am

Not much need for a clean sheet a the moment. They can stretch the A350-1000 a bit, they can stretch the A321 a bit and maybe add a new wing, the A220-500 is obvious. Depending on how the A330NEO does, I think the next project will be aiming to replace it, although a bit smaller and less range probably.

Then the A320 series will be replaced.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:01 am

The A330neo won't last forever and it's a big jump from the A321 to the A350. Just saying...
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:15 am

A220 improvements, greater commonality and the A220-500 stretch.

More work on an eventual clean sheet A320 replacement so they can move fast the day Boeing finally decides to replace the 737. I would expect this to go close in hand with the A220 work to achieve greater commonality.

A350 improvements. The new Rolls Royce engine is an obvious candidate. Think something like an A350 Mk.3

Freighters. I'm guessing A330neo here.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:54 am

I think the A220 is the replacement of the A320 in the long run, maybe with an A221 to replace the A321. They can stretch it several times to get the capacity and range they need. The A350 will be the bread and butter in the long range and high capacity with a shrink, stretch and ULR variants. The A330 will be phased out as it is already lacking orders. So, I thinkl the line-up will be as follows:

A220-100
A220-300
A220-500 (XLR)
A220-700 (XLR)
A221-500 (XLR)
A221-700 (XLR)
A350-800 (ULR)
A350-900 (ULR)
A350-1000 (ULR)
A350-2000 (ULR)
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:43 am

JonesNL wrote:
I think the A220 is the replacement of the A320 in the long run, maybe with an A221 to replace the A321. They can stretch it several times to get the capacity and range they need. The A350 will be the bread and butter in the long range and high capacity with a shrink, stretch and ULR variants. The A330 will be phased out as it is already lacking orders. So, I thinkl the line-up will be as follows:

A220-100
A220-300
A220-500 (XLR)
A220-700 (XLR)
A221-500 (XLR)
A221-700 (XLR)
A350-800 (ULR)
A350-900 (ULR)
A350-1000 (ULR)
A350-2000 (ULR)


The A220 is a step smaller than the A320. It won't be able to replace the A321. The A319 sized A220-300 is already longer than the A320 and the hypothetical A220-500 will be as long as the A321. For the A220 to replace the A321 too would mean something as long as the 757-300, meaning tail strike issues, extremely long takeoff runs (like the 737-9 and -10), really poor hot and high performance and a heavy airframe.
 
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rjsampson
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:54 am

keesje wrote:
Maybe a lean 1.5 aisle A300/A310/A330 replacement for up to 300 passengers single class.


Very nice rendering, keesje, and I'm inclined to agree with you. By the way, what do you mean by 1.5 aisle?

Especially as PM points out:

PM wrote:
The A330neo won't last forever and it's a big jump from the A321 to the A350. Just saying...


Assuming Boeing eventually does get around to producing a 797 family: Do you think it would encompass enough variants to perform missions from the A321XLR and all the way up to all variants of the A330NEO?

Should such a thing come to pass: Perhaps there is a business case for that being the next clean-sheet Airbus aircraft?
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:15 am

VSMUT wrote:

The A220 is a step smaller than the A320. It won't be able to replace the A321. The A319 sized A220-300 is already longer than the A320 and the hypothetical A220-500 will be as long as the A321. For the A220 to replace the A321 too would mean something as long as the 757-300, meaning tail strike issues, extremely long takeoff runs (like the 737-9 and -10), really poor hot and high performance and a heavy airframe.


Yeah, I was sensing the limitation in cabin width would make it quite difficult to replace the A321. But it seems that it will be a good contender to replace the A320.

From that perspective the next clean sheet would be a replacement of the A321 that can compete with the NMA. An 7 abreast body with Ultrafan engines from RR.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:27 am

rjsampson wrote:
keesje wrote:
Maybe a lean 1.5 aisle A300/A310/A330 replacement for up to 300 passengers single class.


Very nice rendering, keesje, and I'm inclined to agree with you. By the way, what do you mean by 1.5 aisle?

Especially as PM points out:

PM wrote:
The A330neo won't last forever and it's a big jump from the A321 to the A350. Just saying...


Assuming Boeing eventually does get around to producing a 797 family: Do you think it would encompass enough variants to perform missions from the A321XLR and all the way up to all variants of the A330NEO?

Should such a thing come to pass: Perhaps there is a business case for that being the next clean-sheet Airbus aircraft?


A 1.5 aisle (30 inch) could make it possible for passengers to pass each / trolleys other during boarding/ deboarding and inflight.

It could offer the option to have twin aisles 1-2-1 direct aisle access in front, for a premium cabin.

Comfort would be boosted by wider seats, additional armrests, the spacey aisle and bigger bins compared to e.g. the 9 abreast 787.

A shorter variant with more range would be accompanied by a high capacity version trading range for payload.

Image
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:45 am

JonesNL wrote:
From that perspective the next clean sheet would be a replacement of the A321 that can compete with the NMA. An 7 abreast body with Ultrafan engines from RR.


7-abreast will never happen. Regulators are very clear, nobody must cross more than 2 seats to reach the aisle in case of an emergency evacuation. 7-abreast would require putting in an extra aisle, and aisles are a waste of space in terms of economics. You essentially need to add 2 seats worth of width to accommodate 1 more passenger abeam.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:22 am

VSMUT wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
From that perspective the next clean sheet would be a replacement of the A321 that can compete with the NMA. An 7 abreast body with Ultrafan engines from RR.


7-abreast will never happen. Regulators are very clear, nobody must cross more than 2 seats to reach the aisle in case of an emergency evacuation. 7-abreast would require putting in an extra aisle, and aisles are a waste of space in terms of economics. You essentially need to add 2 seats worth of width to accommodate 1 more passenger abeam.


I meant twin aisle 7 abreast. The rumor is that Boeing is doing this config in the NMA. It should speed up embarking disembarking substantially and handle the 200-300 pax market perfectly.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:26 am

JonesNL wrote:
VSMUT wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
From that perspective the next clean sheet would be a replacement of the A321 that can compete with the NMA. An 7 abreast body with Ultrafan engines from RR.


7-abreast will never happen. Regulators are very clear, nobody must cross more than 2 seats to reach the aisle in case of an emergency evacuation. 7-abreast would require putting in an extra aisle, and aisles are a waste of space in terms of economics. You essentially need to add 2 seats worth of width to accommodate 1 more passenger abeam.


I meant twin aisle 7 abreast. The rumor is that Boeing is doing this config in the NMA. It should speed up embarking disembarking substantially and handle the 200-300 pax market perfectly.


I just don't see it for the same reasons I listed. It is an inefficient use of space. Boarding and de-boarding time is also of little relevance on medium-range flights.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:55 pm

They seem well positioned for a long while in the 100+ seat market. Is it worth their while to try to dip down in to the regional jet/turboprop market?
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:19 pm

VSMUT wrote:

I just don't see it for the same reasons I listed. It is an inefficient use of space. Boarding and de-boarding time is also of little relevance on medium-range flights.


Well, I don't disagree that it seems rather inefficient. They might go for an squeezed 8-abreast like the 797 render then:
https://members.iinet.net.au/~1300subbox/767-797.jpg

smallmj wrote:
They seem well positioned for a long while in the 100+ seat market. Is it worth their while to try to dip down in to the regional jet/turboprop market?


Won't happen; airliners don't go for turboprops or are phasing them out, as the overhead for 50-100pax planes is not worth the hassle though the fuel economy is at least 20% better per seat than jet planes.
Last edited by JonesNL on Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:28 pm, edited 3 times in total.
 
VSMUT
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:24 pm

JonesNL wrote:
VSMUT wrote:

I just don't see it for the same reasons I listed. It is an inefficient use of space. Boarding and de-boarding time is also of little relevance on medium-range flights.


Well, I don't disagree that it seems rather inefficient, I am just trying to make sense why Boeing is going for a 7-abreast twin aisle according to the strong rumours.


It doesn't make sense because the rumours aren't true.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:26 pm

VSMUT wrote:

It doesn't make sense because the rumors aren't true.


You are probably right, the latest what I could find is that they are considering an squeezed 8 abreast.

I edited my previous post.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:02 pm

rjsampson wrote:
Looking forward to your thoughts (and anyone suggesting something that's not a tube with 2 engines -- don't bother. Stay realistic. We're talking about the NEXT aircraft). What will Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft be?


I would not be so certain.

Yes, I expect it will be a tube, but two engines? I think that depends on whether we're talking about an electric / hybrid aircraft, or a conventional fuel aircraft. Airbus are investing strongly in developing sustainable technologies and partnerships - their next fully clean sheet aircraft could reflect this a lot sooner than we might think.
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:14 pm

PlymSpotter wrote:


I would not be so certain.

Yes, I expect it will be a tube, but two engines? I think that depends on whether we're talking about an electric / hybrid aircraft, or a conventional fuel aircraft. Airbus are investing strongly in developing sustainable technologies and partnerships - their next fully clean sheet aircraft could reflect this a lot sooner than we might think.


[/quote]

Indeed, it is a noble goal that very may well be a reality in the future but respectfully, I have to disagree with you. As has been discussed ad nauseum, we are a long, long, long way off from battery technology with energy density that can remotely approach that of Jet-A (not to mention the complete and total infrastructure overhaul necessary, major certification challenges, etc.) for a transport-category aircraft. Unless their next clean-sheet aircraft hits the design phase in 2050+ (and even that's iffy, in terms of battery technology evolving to that level by then.. heck, it may never get there), there's no doubt that the NEXT clean-sheet aircraft will be a conventional-fuel aircraft. Airbus is of course doing a lot of R&D into sustainability -- but that's not necessarily because they're doing the research for the sole purpose of deploying it to a new, production, profitable, transport-level aircraft in the decades to come

My bet is either on an A330NEO replacement (where CRFP will make a difference) as has been previously mentioned: Not a lot of current orders on the books for the 330NEO. Seems like the 787 is Boeing's closest competitor to the NEO and currently: The only advantage the NEO has over the 787 is a much lower price (no doubt the price difference will gradually narrow).

Just had a thought: Does Airbus have a true apples-to-apples competitor to the 787 family?
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:23 pm

keesje wrote:
A 1.5 aisle (30 inch) could make it possible for passengers to pass each / trolleys other during boarding/ deboarding and inflight.

It could offer the option to have twin aisles 1-2-1 direct aisle access in front, for a premium cabin.

Comfort would be boosted by wider seats, additional armrests, the spacey aisle and bigger bins compared to e.g. the 9 abreast 787.

A shorter variant with more range would be accompanied by a high capacity version trading range for payload.

Image


That sounds nice, however you realize that by making the seats and aisle wider you also make the fuselage wider. That'll make the aircraft heavier (more material is needed) and thus burn more fuel. For that reason, airlines won't be interested in it. Airlines would rather see narrower seats and a narrower aisle as that would result in the same seating capacity and a significant weight reduction.

Where would that take your design? Basically it would be a stretched A321, let's call it the A322. Kind of where Boeing was with the 757-300 for which there has never been a true replacement.

I think it's inevitable Airbus will one day stretch the A320-series even further, beyond the A321 which will become the default size. The A318 and A319 will disappear off the radar as they are too small, the center of the line is shifting from the A320 to the A321.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:23 pm

Not a clean sheet options are: A320 series folding wing allowing longer range and an A322. Even more obvious is an A350-1100 (79.9m long) when the Ultrafan arrives.

The most obvious actual clean sheet to me would be an 8 across composite A330 replacement with a very low drag but optimised for slightly shorter flights wing. Essentially a slightly smaller 787-10, sacrificing the 15+ hour flights for better economics under 8 hours.

Thus giving:
A220 - 5 abreast
A320 - 6 abreast
A390 - 8 abreast
A350 - 9 abreast
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:02 pm

rjsampson wrote:
I'm sure this has been asked before. With Boeing: It's pretty much out there: They're planning on (possibly)? embarking on their first clean-sheet aircraft with the NMA 797. Of course, with the MAX issues and the A321XLR muddying the business case, to invest ~$20 billion into a new program that'll need 2,000 orders to make a profit... Who knows where that will lead. Regardless: It's inevitable one-way-or-the other, as the 737 has reached its final iteration. There can be no more.

Where does that leave Airbus? VLA - tried that, we know the story. Clean-sheet 777 competitor? Already in service.

There doesn't seem to be a pressing business case for a new clean-sheet aircraft programme for the company as the A320 series turned out to be remarkably "future-proof" from its 1989 EIS.

Surely, however, there must be engineers working on something new. Any notion of what that could be? Any leaks indicating as such?

Looking forward to your thoughts (and anyone suggesting something that's not a tube with 2 engines -- don't bother. Stay realistic. We're talking about the NEXT aircraft). What will Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft be?


The A320 is "future-proof" because it represents THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design, and will still be in production until flying becomes unfeasible due to GHG emissions.

Innovation died right after the A320 EIS of 1988. Had progress continued into the 90s and 2000's, the 737NG/MAX and A320 would have likely have gone the way of the 757 by now.
Stuck at age 15 thanks to the certification date of the A320-200 and my parents' decision to postpone having a kid by 3 years. At least there's Dignitas...
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:46 pm

1989worstyear wrote:
The A320 is "future-proof" because it represents THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design, and will still be in production until flying becomes unfeasible due to GHG emissions.


...not exactly sure what that means. On the one hand, you say the A320, EIS in 1988, still represents the "THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design?" And that's when "innovation died?" I can't imagine others would agree at all with that..

1989worstyear wrote:
Had progress continued into the 90s and 2000's, the 737NG/MAX and A320 would have likely have gone the way of the 757 by now.


I'd guess that most people would feel that "progress" most certainly DID continue into the 90s, 2000s, and beyond. What definition of "progress" are you referring to, that stopped? If your said "progress" had stopped, killing off the A320/737: What is your vision of what the "pinnacle" of the NB be like today?

Guys -- am I missing something?
"..your eyes will be forever turned skyward, for there.." yeah we know the DaVinci quote. But GA is so dang expensive these days! :(
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:09 pm

rjsampson wrote:
1989worstyear wrote:
The A320 is "future-proof" because it represents THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design, and will still be in production until flying becomes unfeasible due to GHG emissions.


...not exactly sure what that means. On the one hand, you say the A320, EIS in 1988, still represents the "THE pinnacle of NB aircraft design?" And that's when "innovation died?" I can't imagine others would agree at all with that..

1989worstyear wrote:
Had progress continued into the 90s and 2000's, the 737NG/MAX and A320 would have likely have gone the way of the 757 by now.


I'd guess that most people would feel that "progress" most certainly DID continue into the 90s, 2000s, and beyond. What definition of "progress" are you referring to, that stopped? If your said "progress" had stopped, killing off the A320/737: What is your vision of what the "pinnacle" of the NB be like today?

Guys -- am I missing something?


only sarcasm
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:09 pm

Narrowbody replacement is a given. Widebody however, will be interesting. My guess for a future line up?

NB
A220 - receives mid-life updates, engines and A220-500 stretch
??? - clean sheet A321 replacement in two variants.

WB
??? - clean sheet widebody as a formal replacement of the A330neo (this one won't have a very long pax production run) and aimed at the smaller 787 variants.
A350 - receives mid-life updates, engines and fully takes on the role of a 777-sized competitor / A380 replacement, perhaps slight up-sizing of current variants.
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:20 pm

PatrickZ80 wrote:

That sounds nice, however you realize that by making the seats and aisle wider you also make the fuselage wider. That'll make the aircraft heavier (more material is needed) and thus burn more fuel. For that reason, airlines won't be interested in it. Airlines would rather see narrower seats and a narrower aisle as that would result in the same seating capacity and a significant weight reduction.


Can’t ignore wondering where that would leave a 2-3-2 widebody with similar seat capacity.. probably it’s more complicated.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:41 pm

No new clean sheet. Airbus just acquired a whole clean sheet program for $1: the CSeries.

The next obvious projects:

A220-500 - stretch of 223.

A322 - stretch of 321

A324 - double stretch of 321.

The 321 stretches will have new wings, landing gear, etc. Whatever can be done cheaply and quickly to retain a chunk of marketshare profitably against the NMA.

Whacky ideas:

A323 - A322 with a folding wingtip for and higher MTOW for longer range flight.

A325 - A324 with a folding wingtip and higher MTOW for longer range flight.

Keep in mind that all these stretches are running up against infrastructure constraints. A 225 will be as long as a 321. With these stretched 321 models and a hypothetical 227, they are all in 752/753 territory. Can gates everywhere fit these? Can shorter ranged airplanes of 200+ seats have wings that are economically effective and still fit regular narrowbody gates?
 
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:09 am

Airbus has a total of 846 unfilled dual-aisle orders

10 A330-800 (257-406 seats) zero delivered
238 A330-900 (287 - 440 seats) 20 delivered
733 A350-900 (315 - 440 seats) 270 delivered
180 A350-1000 (369 - 440 seats) 25 delivered
1161 orders with 315 deliveries

Boeing has a total of 916 unfilled dual-aisle orders

444 787-8 363 delivered
829 787-9 476 delivered
189 787-10 32 delivered
280 777-9 zero delivered
45 777-8 zero delivered
1,787 orders with 871 delivered

PM wrote:
The A330neo won't last forever and it's a big jump from the A321 to the A350. Just saying...


Yes, but it may not be profitable to fill that big jump. Airbus has had very little luck in the past with jets to fill niche markets. I agree that the next clean sheet will be an A320 replacement and may be another 15 years.
 
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OA940
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Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:11 am

Like someone else said they're aiming to replace the A320 family in 15 years or so. A pretty good timeline if you ask me. The way I see it, they're gonna aim to replace A330s with A330neos and A350s, covering that segment of the market, but the 789 is more practical for airlines than the A330neo in many cases, so I believe maybe a plane that covers that market segment will come next. With the XLR now in place Airbus has basically given the answer to the NMA which may never even be built, so they have covered most of the market for the moment.

Long-term however, I think their next steps will be:
1) A220-500 to replace the A320. Considering there is airline interest in it it's a pretty logical next step. Also assuming that in 15 years or so a lot of current A320
markets will have matured enough to support A321-sized planes it saves them the extra cost of building an A320-sized cleansheet and instead base that
around the A321. This may come sooner rather than later, but I'm no expert.
2) Cleansheet narrowbody to replace A321. They could also make it wider to have a similar seat width to the A220 and maybe carry more cargo though idrk how
that works. The A321 is selling like hotcakes and will only continue to do so. A variant covering the A321neo replacement and a subvariant taking care of the
XLR market. A stretch to accomodate growing market demand, especially in the MoM area, and the extra width would probably help with that. Maybe they
could also have a 338-type aircraft and offer a double-aircraft approach to the MoM market.
3) A330 replacement that basically covers the 333/339-359 range, considering in 10-15 years the A350 won't be exactly cutting-edge. Two variants, one for each
replacement I mentioned, and range similar to the A350, with derated versions available for Asia or whoever else may want a widebody for short flights.

Now of course this is all based on a random idiot's (me) thoughts at 3am and is complete speculation. Truth is we don't know anything, no matter how much certain people here wanna pretend. Plus, in 10-15 years there is so much that could happen. We may even be seeing electric aircraft carrying passengers on short-medium haul flights in place of the 737s and A320s we see today. So please don't take any of this too seriously.
A350/CSeries = bae
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1520
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:01 am

I expext Airbus to launch a cleansheet 797 competitor. The A330NEO will cease production.

If we look at the MTOW weights of both manufacturers.
737-10 90t and A321XLR 102t is 14% greater.
787-9 254t and A350-900 280t is 10% greater.

I expect Airbus to produce a cleansheet MOM competitor that has a MTOW 10% higher than the 797. Fractionally bigger in cabin area following the tradition of Airbus using a slightly wider seat standard. Their MOM will be more capable like we see with the 787-9 vs A350-900.

Airbus has a bigger MOM gap than Boeing.

The Boeing 787-8 has a MTOW 137t higher than the 737-10

The Airbus A330NEO has a MTOW 149t higher than the A321XLR.

I however don't think the A330NEO will be a long term part of the Airbus lineup. This creates an even bigger gap between the A321XLR and A350-900 of 178t.

I expect the Airbus larger lineup to look like this:

A321XLR 102t - 230 seat 4700nm
A322 102t - 260 seat 3700nm
A360-800 170t - 8ab widebody 6000nm
A360-900 170t - A330-800 size 5000nm
A350-900 280t
A350-1000 322t


Boeings lineup will be like this
737-10 90t - 230 seat 3300nm
797-6 150t 265 seat 5200nm
797-7 150t 300 seat 4500nm
787-8
787-9
787-10

The 767-6 and A322 will have similar number of seats but the 797-6 flies a massive 40% further. I expect the small Airbus MOM model to be the same size as the largest 797 model.
 
TheHunt3r
Posts: 17
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:38 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:32 am

I'd say the next clean sheet will be elecric/hybrid AC using the laminar wing Airbus is developing. Nothing else really brings large innovation to require a brand new AC. If Boeing goes ahead with it's 797 there will be even less of a reason to make an A330 replacement since if even Boeing is struggling to close the business case there would be even less space for Airbus(subject to demand of course anything can happen)
 
User avatar
hOMSaR
Posts: 2164
Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:47 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:23 am

rjsampson wrote:
Guys -- am I missing something?


What you’re missing is that he’s a troll that pollutes lots of threads with his same inane garbage.
The plural of Airbus is Airbuses. Airbii is not a word.
There is no 787-800, nor 787-900 or 747-800. It's 787-8, 787-9, and 747-8.
A321neoLR is also unnecessary. It's simply A321LR.
Airplanes don't have isles, they have aisles.
 
JamesCousins
Posts: 410
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:19 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:01 pm

JonesNL wrote:
The A330 will be phased out as it is already lacking orders. So, I thinkl the line-up will be as follows...


I can't say I agree with this, and feel people get far too caught up in the whole A330neo is dead rhetoric. Has it been as successful as the 787? No. Have airlines overall regarded it as an inferior product? Yes. But it's got large orders from Delta, Virgin (top up and options seemingly very likely from VS/DL), TAP, Garuda and of course the 100 frame order from AirAsia X. While the AirAsia X order isn't as stable as say that from DL given their tendency to renegotiate and convert commonly, they'll still take a very large number of frames that may even exceed the 100 mark. I think it's in it for the long run, and could become a bit of a quiet cash cow like it's predecessor the A330 given the very low comparative development costs when looking at it and the 787 ($2bn vs $32bn).
Q400, A320-200, A321-200, 737-500, 737-800, 747-400, 757-200, 787-9 // FCA, TOM, TUI, MON, MT, BA, VS, DL, BE, X9, OLY
 
Babyshark
Posts: 167
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:48 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 12:54 pm

rjsampson wrote:
I'm sure this has been asked before. With Boeing: It's pretty much out there: They're planning on (possibly)? embarking on their first clean-sheet aircraft with the NMA 797. Of course, with the MAX issues and the A321XLR muddying the business case, to invest ~$20 billion into a new program that'll need 2,000 orders to make a profit... Who knows where that will lead. Regardless: It's inevitable one-way-or-the other, as the 737 has reached its final iteration. There can be no more.

Where does that leave Airbus? VLA - tried that, we know the story. Clean-sheet 777 competitor? Already in service.

There doesn't seem to be a pressing business case for a new clean-sheet aircraft programme for the company as the A320 series turned out to be remarkably "future-proof" from its 1989 EIS.

Surely, however, there must be engineers working on something new. Any notion of what that could be? Any leaks indicating as such?

Looking forward to your thoughts (and anyone suggesting something that's not a tube with 2 engines -- don't bother. Stay realistic. We're talking about the NEXT aircraft). What will Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft be?


Clean sheet would probably be A320 replacement. And they better have it ready but for now they dont need it unless Boeing does something revolutionary as a 737 replacement.

So... status quo. They've had the 320 replacement ready to go for a while. That's no secret. But you dont replace your AC in your house until you need to right? They'd have to spend money to make as much as they make now so itd cost them... unless not doing something costs more.
 
chrisfrommalawi
Posts: 3
Joined: Sat Aug 26, 2017 7:24 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:38 pm

I do not see them responding directly to the NMA

A220 - 100
A220 - 300
A220 - 500

I wonder if they will be able to make the A220-500 as capable as the A320? Then I see the A320 remaining if they can not make it as capable so the A320 family will be:

A320.5
A321
A322

Realistically I don't see them doing a further stretch than the A322.

For a replacement for the A320neo. I can can see them responding to the 787 with a single aircraft. Sized between the 787-9 and the A330-900 but better short range economics.

A350 will be neo'd and the stretch to A350-1100.

I think less is more in this case and this will cover all they need to cover.
 
StudiodeKadent
Posts: 387
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:43 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:37 pm

They can use the A220 and expand it to an A220-500 and an A220neo, so that could cover all of the small narrowbodies and reduce their need to develop a cleansheet narrowbody. Not to mention, the A321neo/LR/XLR has sold exceptionally well and will have much success.

So I think their next cleansheet will be a replacement of the A330s, and it will compete with/supersede the Dreamliners.

Let's call this the "A360." The A360-200 will be a 787-8/A330-800 replacement, the A360-300 will be a 787-9/A330-900 replacement, and the A360-400 will be a 787-10 replacement. 245/285/325 pax respectively. 8-abreast economy with A220-grade seating dimensions, and 7-abreast premium economy. Width in between an A330 and 787.

They won't replace the A320s so quickly given the A320/A321neo program's success. They won't make something of 767/MoM size because that's what Boeing will be doing next. And they won't do anything in the 777 size category since that's where the A350s are. And they won't be doing VLAs since, well, the A380 didn't turn out so well.

Logical answer: they'll do the A330 size category and replace their weakest program.
 
frmrCapCadet
Posts: 2987
Joined: Thu May 29, 2008 8:24 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:02 pm

Unless the 797 lands a couple thousand orders in the first couple years Airbus may not need to do anything. Improving profit margins, increasing production capability and building up a war chest for whatever it needs to do next may be a good strategy. If the 797 looks like a major winner Airbus still needs to follow that strategy, but has time to re-wing the 320 to gain another step advantage over the 737. The next set of narrow body planes optimized for 500 miles or so is likely to be some sort of hybrid, and would wipe out the value of an expensive NSA.
Buffet: the airline business...has eaten up capital...like..no other (business)
 
jghealey
Posts: 109
Joined: Fri May 11, 2018 5:46 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sat Aug 17, 2019 4:11 pm

I have zero inside knowledge but surely the most logical option would be to replace the A220/A320 with a clean sheet design covering the 145-250 seat range with common type rating across all aircraft types (rather than having a combination of A220 and A321 covering this sector) and then a re-engined A350 family including the -800 shrink, in 15yrs or so as others have been saying? That would be great for airlines who benefit from a modern design and commonality across aircraft types with only 2 families being offered by Airbus. In the nearer term personally I don't see an A322 stretch as there isn't really enough demand to justify this.
 
RJMAZ
Posts: 1520
Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:54 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 18, 2019 7:15 am

jghealey wrote:
I have zero inside knowledge but surely the most logical option would be to replace the A220/A320 with a clean sheet design covering the 145-250 seat range with common type rating across all aircraft types (rather than having a combination of A220 and A321 covering this sector) and then a re-engined A350 family including the -800 shrink, in 15yrs or so as others have been saying? That would be great for airlines who benefit from a modern design and commonality across aircraft types with only 2 families being offered by Airbus. In the nearer term personally I don't see an A322 stretch as there isn't really enough demand to justify this.

People here are talking about the A350-800 just like Boeings 787-3. Clipping the wings, reducing the MTOW and derating the engines. This gains no improvement at all as you are carrying all of the deadweight of the heavier version.

The A350-900 has a monster sized wing. The A350-800 would need a much smaller wing. Changing wingtips and fitting smaller flaps would not cut it the entire wing would have to be brand new. That is extremely expensive.

The landing gear and centre wingbox is also overbuilt. The 787-8 has smaller landing gear than the 787-9. So the A350-800 could get a fully optimised lighweight landing gear, more dollars.

The engines could not be derated A350-900 engines as that would be inefficient. Lucky the smaller, lighter 787 engines would be a perfect fit for a A350-800. Again more money.

The fuselage tube itself is overbuilt to carry massive cargo and support the A350-1000 length. It would need a unique fuselage tube to be fully optimised.

After all of this you are 75% of the way towards a full cleansheet aircraft. Airbus would be better off to just design a cleansheet 8ab to replace the A330 and sit nicely between the A321 and A350.
 
WIederling
Posts: 8473
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2015 2:15 pm

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 18, 2019 9:41 am

RJMAZ wrote:
The A350-900 has a monster sized wing. The A350-800 would need a much smaller wing. Changing wingtips and fitting smaller flaps would not cut it the entire wing would have to be brand new. That is extremely expensive.
..................

The fuselage tube itself is overbuilt to carry massive cargo and support the A350-1000 length. It would need a unique fuselage tube to be fully optimised.


The -8 would have had a narrower, shorter ( lighter over all ) bogie. still 4 wheels.)
What I got out of various reports from the fiber laying industry publications
is that the -1000 got bespoke parametric sized CFRP frames, same for door frames
and other details that gain from being able to be flexibly sized ( per position in the plane, per subtype )

The fuselage frame connections ( by way of clips) allows easy adaption of skin thickness without
changing outer dimensions. combine with rightsized frames.

The A330 performed rather well with its allegedly overweight, oversized wing.
A bespoke A358 has good chance to avoid being overweight. a good performer.
Murphy is an optimist
 
snasteve
Posts: 62
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:58 am

Re: Any leaks, ideas, or otherwise: What is Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft?

Sun Aug 18, 2019 10:42 am

rjsampson wrote:
I'm sure this has been asked before. With Boeing: It's pretty much out there: They're planning on (possibly)? embarking on their first clean-sheet aircraft with the NMA 797. Of course, with the MAX issues and the A321XLR muddying the business case, to invest ~$20 billion into a new program that'll need 2,000 orders to make a profit... Who knows where that will lead. Regardless: It's inevitable one-way-or-the other, as the 737 has reached its final iteration. There can be no more.

Where does that leave Airbus? VLA - tried that, we know the story. Clean-sheet 777 competitor? Already in service.

There doesn't seem to be a pressing business case for a new clean-sheet aircraft programme for the company as the A320 series turned out to be remarkably "future-proof" from its 1989 EIS.

Surely, however, there must be engineers working on something new. Any notion of what that could be? Any leaks indicating as such?

Looking forward to your thoughts (and anyone suggesting something that's not a tube with 2 engines -- don't bother. Stay realistic. We're talking about the NEXT aircraft). What will Airbus' next clean-sheet aircraft be?


My guess is that they’ll wait for Boeing to finalize something and then they will follow up with their own similar but slightly wider product. In other words, they will continue their existing strategy of not being the first to market in any new category. Not that there are any categories left, but I think you know what I mean here.

Also they might wait for Boeing to make another colossal misjudgment and do something which results in another almost free gift basket falling into their laps like with bombardier.

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