CosmicCruiser
Topic Author
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what's with all the cancellations

Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:17 pm

It seems your odds of actually arriving at your destination nowadays is less than 50%. Doesn't matter which of the big 3 your own. Last month my LHR-ATL flight on Delta was cancelled so I had to spend another night in London. Just 2 weekends ago my daughters had both of the respective flights cancelled out of CLT for BOS & LGA. Not only does this suck but they had to be at work the next day and they both arrived their cities well after midnight. To magnify the problem it's the norm that when one leg is cancelled the next leg will be several hours later really messing up your schedule. These examples are only the recent ones, I could go back a few years. If UPS & Fedex's reliability rates were as bad as the pax carriers they'd be out of business.
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:05 pm

There are no more or less than usual. Conversely, I can't remember if I've ever had a cancelled flight and I've flown a lot. Please do not ascertain that there are many more cancellations, just because you know of two over the past short while. It's a bit dramatic.
Whatever
 
wv399
Posts: 49
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:09 pm

Delta has the lowest rates of cancellation in the industry, so it was probably cancelled for a good reason. What was the weather like in Atlanta that day? Boston and New York share the same airspace, so a weather event in one is a weather event for both, or Charlotte had a summer storm.
 
IPFreely
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:06 am

CosmicCruiser wrote:
It seems your odds of actually arriving at your destination nowadays is less than 50%.


True, for several reasons:

1. Other than WN more flying is thru hubs rather than point-to-point compared to years (or decades) ago. So if you don't live in a hub, most simple round trips involve four flights, not two. This greatly increases the chances of a delay or cancellation since the first flight can prevent you from making the second.

2. Flights are at near-record load factors so when a flight is delayed or cancelled there are fewer seats available to simply put everyone on the next flight an hour later.

3. Interlining was the norm "back in the day", today it's common but not guaranteed. Most famously, Delta has been very proud of their operation to the point they reduced or eliminated some of their interline agreements. Which means when they cancel a flight, like your LHR-ATL, they won't rebook you to your destination on another airline, you just sit and wait.
 
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Super80Fan
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Fri Aug 30, 2019 6:30 am

I don't know about cancellations, but I am recalling a lot more turbulent flights than in the past.
RIP McDonnell Douglas
RIP US Airways
 
FriscoHeavy
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Fri Aug 30, 2019 12:12 pm

Super80Fan wrote:
I don't know about cancellations, but I am recalling a lot more turbulent flights than in the past.


This was just discussed on another thread. While anecdotally, it may appear this is more turbulence in your case, turbulence has decreased over the past couple of decades with the better communication and radar technology.

I can't remember a single flight in the last 10 years with significant turbulence. A few bumps for a couple of minutes, sure, but not ongoing moderate or severe turbulence.
Whatever
 
ChrisKen
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:02 pm

IPFreely wrote:
CosmicCruiser wrote:
It seems your odds of actually arriving at your destination nowadays is less than 50%.


True, for several reasons:.

Don't give up the day job. #NoChildLeftBehind :roll:

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/HomeDrillChart.asp See Cancelled/Diverted, you'll find the odds were ~98% for last year. Of course that doesn't include those rerouted/re-accommodated on other flight to their destination, which raises those odds of success further.

This year's numbers much the same.

They're even better globally.
 
CosmicCruiser
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 12:24 am

FriscoHeavy wrote:
There are no more or less than usual. Conversely, I can't remember if I've ever had a cancelled flight and I've flown a lot. Please do not ascertain that there are many more cancellations, just because you know of two over the past short while. It's a bit dramatic.


If you had read my post closer you would see that i said these were only what my family did in the last month and I could sight many more from the last few times my family members flew. I could tell you ridiculous stories.
Yes I did track the weather and saw no issues. In one case they blamed "staffing issues". I'm not going to type the stories as there's no point but I've had horrible service on average over the past few years. Isn't it interesting that when my flight was cancelled in LHR and I rebooked the same flight the next day with the same connection that I immediately got a notification that my connection in ATL would be delayed 3 1/2 hrs! This is 36 hrs in advance. When I arrived ATL the flight board showed my flight on time so I went to the gate only to be told it was delayed by 3 1/2 hrs and it was at another gate. It wound up being 4 hrs late. I've read a good article about the BIG 3 and how they will continue to pass flights off to their partners to save money. There's more than meets the eye here and it isn't good.
 
IPFreely
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:12 am

ChrisKen wrote:
IPFreely wrote:
CosmicCruiser wrote:
It seems your odds of actually arriving at your destination nowadays is less than 50%.


True, for several reasons:.

Don't give up the day job. #NoChildLeftBehind :roll:

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/HomeDrillChart.asp See Cancelled/Diverted, you'll find the odds were ~98% for last year. Of course that doesn't include those rerouted/re-accommodated on other flight to their destination, which raises those odds of success further.

This year's numbers much the same.

They're even better globally.


Maybe it's too much for you to understand but try reading the posts. As was posted above, very few round trips are "A" to "B" then "B" to "A". Most trips are "A" to hub, hub to "B", "B" to hub, hub to "A". If your first flight is cancelled or delayed more than a short amount, you are not on your second flight even if it operates on time. From the statistics you yourself posted, 79% of flights arrive on time. With four flights per round trip, your total chance of making your connection and arriving on-time in both directions is 39%. So your post actually confirms the OP's observation that his chance of on-time arrival is less than 50%, even if his airline is bragging about a 100% "completion factor". Please pay more attention in the future.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:49 am

On time stats have jack all to do with it. The OP and yourself stated 'chance of reaching their destination was 50%' or less'. NOT a dam thing about on time performance.

According to your 'detailed' reply, you agreed the OPs statement that the probabilty of a passenger reaching their destination 50% or less was true, you gave a bunch of nonsense that lacked any understanding of probabilities or factors pertaining to the question

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts with the new 'on time' caveat, that neither you or the OP mentioned previously.

The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given journey is over 98%.
The chances of them reaching their destination on time is a different question altogether and it wasn't asked by the OP. But guess what? It's still going to be higher than 50%
 
CosmicCruiser
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:13 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given journey is over 98%.
The chances of them reaching their destination on time is a different question altogether and it wasn't asked by the OP. But guess what? It's still going to be higher than 50%


That is the point of my post. Thanks. The Airlines need to come to grips with the fact they are a service industry and the people that use them are relying on them to get to their destination at a certain time and not just whenever. There are, in most cases, other people depending on them arriving at a certain time as well so to cancel a flight and then run someone around for the next 6-8 hrs trying to get to their dest. disrupts many people as well as their plans and it happens all too often. I'll bet if the American carriers had to compensate travelers for disruptions like the EU does they would find a solution.
Please don't think I'm some bozo who is just an angry, misfortunate air traveler. I was with the airlines for 30 yrs and know when weather and/or maint is a true issue.
 
IPFreely
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 1:58 pm

ChrisKen wrote:
On time stats have jack all to do with it. The OP and yourself stated 'chance of reaching their destination was 50%' or less'. NOT a dam thing about on time performance.

According to your 'detailed' reply, you agreed the OPs statement that the probabilty of a passenger reaching their destination 50% or less was true, you gave a bunch of nonsense that lacked any understanding of probabilities or factors pertaining to the question

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts with the new 'on time' caveat, that neither you or the OP mentioned previously.

The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given journey is over 98%.
The chances of them reaching their destination on time is a different question altogether and it wasn't asked by the OP. But guess what? It's still going to be higher than 50%


As I suspected, you simply don't understand enough to know why you're wrong.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:12 pm

IPFreely wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
On time stats have jack all to do with it. The OP and yourself stated 'chance of reaching their destination was 50%' or less'. NOT a dam thing about on time performance.

According to your 'detailed' reply, you agreed the OPs statement that the probabilty of a passenger reaching their destination 50% or less was true, you gave a bunch of nonsense that lacked any understanding of probabilities or factors pertaining to the question

Nice attempt at moving the goalposts with the new 'on time' caveat, that neither you or the OP mentioned previously.

The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given journey is over 98%.
The chances of them reaching their destination on time is a different question altogether and it wasn't asked by the OP. But guess what? It's still going to be higher than 50%


As I suspected, you simply don't understand enough to know why you're wrong.


Says the man who claims 50% of air travellers in America DO NOT reach their destination.

No one mentioned on time arrivals but you after being called. Which by the way is approximately 78% on any given journey.
You wanna bring it down to specific routes, then that changes. But again, that's not the queston that was asked.

The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given US journey by air is over 98%.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:31 pm

It’s 100% unless airlines are leaving passengers wandering around terminals.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:37 pm

CosmicCruiser wrote:
ChrisKen wrote:
The chances of a passenger reaching their destination on any given journey is over 98%.
The chances of them reaching their destination on time is a different question altogether and it wasn't asked by the OP. But guess what? It's still going to be higher than 50%


That is the point of my post. Thanks.
Please don't think I'm some bozo who is just an angry, misfortunate air traveler.

No problem CosmicCrusier. Don't worry, I don't.
The only bozo is the mouthy one trying to argue about something completely different to what was actually asked.
 
ChrisKen
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:43 pm

GalaxyFlyer wrote:
It’s 100% unless airlines are leaving passengers wandering around terminals.

Not quite, some won't reach their destination for various reasons namely abandoning their journey, getting kicked off for being a gobby knowitall or the rare case of not being able to re-accomodate.
Although, I suppose you could argue those would haved changed their destination and therefore reached it, thus making it the round 100%. Makes more sense than others have.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:26 am

That’s my point, they always reach a destination, maybe not the intended one or at the planned time, but arrive they do. I’ve been cancelled, re-routed, delayed, lost bags, but always arrived where the trip required, so 100% for me.

GF
 
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fallap
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Mon Sep 02, 2019 8:49 am

Of my total of 331 flights I have never experienced a cancellation, in fact I only recently experienced my first major delay that caused me to miss my connection flight.
Ex grease monkey buried head to toe inside an F-16M
Now studying Political Science
 
VSMUT
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:49 am

fallap wrote:
Of my total of 331 flights I have never experienced a cancellation, in fact I only recently experienced my first major delay that caused me to miss my connection flight.


Same, very, very few notable delays and only 2 cancellations in 200+ flights. Of the delayed flights, only 2 were significant, 1 was a missed slot resulting in 1 hour of delay, the second resulted in a missed connection and a 5 hour delay.
 
CosmicCruiser
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:54 pm

all of you are very lucky. looking back at the last 9 flights me or a family member was on 7 were either cancelled or significantly delayed.
 
UALFAson
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:56 pm

CosmicCruiser wrote:
all of you are very lucky. looking back at the last 9 flights me or a family member was on 7 were either cancelled or significantly delayed.


That's tough and I'm sorry. I will say that when relying on anecdotal evidence or personal examples like that, it's really a case of YMMV depending on where you are based, where you're going, what time of day you travel, etc.

For example, it has been a really bad summer for thunderstorms, especially along the Northeast Corridor and Chicago and the Midwest/Great Plains (refer to numerous articles about flooding of farmers' fields). I live in BNA and we have managed to avoid a lot of the bad weather this summer, so I haven't had many delays at all. I also tend to fly early in the morning just to get where I am going to avoid afternoon weather problems and trickle-down delays.

That said, based on my anecdotal experience, I am also one of those who would argue that my flights over the past year or so have been SIGNIFICANLY more turbulent overall than any time I can remember. But according to the thread on that issue, that's not statistically true (allegedly!)
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
CosmicCruiser
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:15 am

only one flight took place in my home airport. And really unless you are some how buying into some psychobabble rhetoric that justifies some theory of time of day or location or what is silly. One was in MEM, one in LHR, one was in YYZ three were in CLT, one was in SFO.
 
UALFAson
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Re: what's with all the cancellations

Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:37 pm

CosmicCruiser wrote:
And really unless you are some how buying into some psychobabble rhetoric that justifies some theory of time of day or location or what is silly.


Psychobabble rhetoric?! It's "psychobabble rhetoric" to suggest that flights to/from airports like those in NYC, CHI, and SF might be more delay-prone that those in other parts of the country?! It's "psychobabble rhetoric" to suggest that afternoon and evening flights, especially in the summer when afternoon storms have a chance to develop, might be more delay-prone than first flights out early in the morning?!

What is wrong with you? Your original post is nothing more than anecdotal complaining in the first place. I'm sorry I wasted my time and effort responding and trying to empathize.
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