UA857
Topic Author
Posts: 312
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:20 am

As we apporach the 18th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks I begin to wonder what will the airline industry be like if 9/11 was prevented. Any thoughts?
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:38 am

* The Boeing 727 might have flown a few years longer.
* US Airways would probably not have to file for Chapter 11 (since its Washington hub was closed for weeks after 9/11, grounding a large portion of their fleet)
* Swissair and Sabena might have survived a bit longer, although they were already pretty much doomed before 9/11.
* Concorde might have flown a few extra years (If memory serves me correctly, the first test flight after its crash was on the morning of 9/11!)
* Maybe not every airline in the US had at some point to file for Chapter 11, but would have been able to turn things around without a major restructuring.
Come fly with me, let's fly, let's fly away!
 
User avatar
PacoMartin
Posts: 282
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:18 pm

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:57 am

Here's an interesting thought.

From 1993 until 2001 B737 Next Generation orders were 1317 in North America and 545 in the rest of the world. Prior to 9-11, Boeing viewed the B737 Next Generation as the second and last major redesign of the B737 and expected to replace the NG with a clean sheet design (dubbed Yellowstone-1) internally.

After 9-11 the North American market for new jets plunged. Over the next decade, from 2002 until 2011 there were 1350 orders for B737NG jets and 2450 in the rest of the world. Only a tiny jump in North America from 1317 to 1350, but for the rest of the world orders close to five-fold jump from 545 order to 2450 orders.

Since the B737NG outsold the two previous generations starting in 1965 by more than 225%, it really is the dominant generation. And it looks like the changing nature of jet purchase caused by 9-11 spread the B737NG from North America to the rest of the world.

So when 2011 came along Boeing executives were looking at much more of a world-wide plane than they were a decade earlier. It made the decision to go with a re-engined model, the MAX, instead of a clean sheet design much more compelling because now there were thousands more NG spread around the entire world which would naturally want to be replaced with similar models.

While the decision of Boeing to develop the MAX is widely seen as a response to the fantastic sales of the A320neo announced 9 months earlier, there is also a strong component of changes made to worldwide industry after 9-11.
 
mdavies06
Posts: 526
Joined: Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:28 pm

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:38 am

You will find many topics (including some started by yourself) relating to 9/11 by doing a google search on "airliners.net xyz", where xyz is the topic of interest.

Example:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1407673
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=1428495
 
rbavfan
Posts: 3188
Joined: Fri Apr 17, 2015 5:53 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:55 am

PANAMsterdam wrote:
* The Boeing 727 might have flown a few years longer.
* US Airways would probably not have to file for Chapter 11 (since its Washington hub was closed for weeks after 9/11, grounding a large portion of their fleet)
* Swissair and Sabena might have survived a bit longer, although they were already pretty much doomed before 9/11.
* Concorde might have flown a few extra years (If memory serves me correctly, the first test flight after its crash was on the morning of 9/11!)
* Maybe not every airline in the US had at some point to file for Chapter 11, but would have been able to turn things around without a major restructuring.


-While 9/11 was bad it was used as the excuse to file Chapter 11 as all the main carriers had over expanded to near death.
-Note WN never filed, they had an ability to control themselves as competition went.

-US air was already in a spiral before 9/11, it just sped thing up and allowed America West to buy and keep them from liquidating. Followed by taking the
better known US Air name. They repeated that move when they bought AA and kept the AA name as it was better known worldwide.

-If 9/11 killed Swissair and Sabena then they were already dead as few of their routes were US based and a couple weeks would not have a real effect on them.
-Concordes crash was the major decider to stop funding replacement parts & shutting down the parts supple sealed it's fate.
 
JBoy
Posts: 39
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2016 1:11 pm

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:12 pm

Also note that Alaska never declared bankruptcy after 9/11 either.
 
PANAMsterdam
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:45 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:46 pm

rbavfan wrote:
PANAMsterdam wrote:
* The Boeing 727 might have flown a few years longer.
* US Airways would probably not have to file for Chapter 11 (since its Washington hub was closed for weeks after 9/11, grounding a large portion of their fleet)
* Swissair and Sabena might have survived a bit longer, although they were already pretty much doomed before 9/11.
* Concorde might have flown a few extra years (If memory serves me correctly, the first test flight after its crash was on the morning of 9/11!)
* Maybe not every airline in the US had at some point to file for Chapter 11, but would have been able to turn things around without a major restructuring.




-If 9/11 killed Swissair and Sabena then they were already dead as few of their routes were US based and a couple weeks would not have a real effect on them.


No not the routes, but the slump in air travel.
Come fly with me, let's fly, let's fly away!
 
User avatar
acavpics
Posts: 176
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:54 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:07 pm

United may have kept their 767-200's a bit longer? Just a guess.
 
IPFreely
Posts: 2385
Joined: Sun Dec 24, 2006 8:26 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:17 pm

PANAMsterdam wrote:
* Maybe not every airline in the US had at some point to file for Chapter 11, but would have been able to turn things around without a major restructuring.


Alaska and Southwest did not file chapter 11 after 9/11. In fact both have long histories and neither has ever used bankruptcy protection.
 
DeltaMD95
Posts: 500
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2014 5:37 am

Re: What will the airline industry be like if 9/11 didn´t happen?

Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:07 am

Perhaps an additional 717 order or two.
Did you know that a Boeing 717-200 is really a McDonnell Douglas MD95-30? ;-)

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Phosphorus and 15 guests

Popular Searches On Airliners.net

Top Photos of Last:   24 Hours  •  48 Hours  •  7 Days  •  30 Days  •  180 Days  •  365 Days  •  All Time

Military Aircraft Every type from fighters to helicopters from air forces around the globe

Classic Airliners Props and jets from the good old days

Flight Decks Views from inside the cockpit

Aircraft Cabins Passenger cabin shots showing seat arrangements as well as cargo aircraft interior

Cargo Aircraft Pictures of great freighter aircraft

Government Aircraft Aircraft flying government officials

Helicopters Our large helicopter section. Both military and civil versions

Blimps / Airships Everything from the Goodyear blimp to the Zeppelin

Night Photos Beautiful shots taken while the sun is below the horizon

Accidents Accident, incident and crash related photos

Air to Air Photos taken by airborne photographers of airborne aircraft

Special Paint Schemes Aircraft painted in beautiful and original liveries

Airport Overviews Airport overviews from the air or ground

Tails and Winglets Tail and Winglet closeups with beautiful airline logos